How Bad Is the Exodus?

[Tacenda]

1 hour ago, Calm said:

Utah has had one of the highest baptizing records for the Church for a long time.  When we lived in Canada, my son was called to the Ogden/Logan mission; he was initially disappointed, but really enjoyed the work. He would never have had done any tracting if one of his MP’s hadn’t insisted on it as they were always booked for appts.

I haven’t kept tabs on it for the last 15 years, so perhaps things have changed. 

I honestly wonder if it's political stuff going on and waking people up to a belief in God and country, or become more patriotic, and Latter-day Saints are surely that.

[Calm]

10 minutes ago, Tacenda said:

I honestly wonder if it's political stuff going on and waking people up to a belief in God and country, or become more patriotic, and Latter-day Saints are surely that.

From the stats, I believe Utah has had the highest baptism numbers from at least the 50’s, though it has been awhile since I looked at them, so my memory may be off.  I never got the impression patriotism had anything to do with it. In a couple of cases I personally know of (a roommate at BYU was one), it had nothing to do with that and more about looking for a home, a place to belong.  
 

I don’t remember every hearing of love for country as part of a new convert’s testimony.  Much more about family, including an extended social family and relationship with God.

There is probably someone who has surveyed new converts and asked what attracted them to the Church or caused them to start investigating. Perhaps patriotism is somewhere on that list for some. 

Edited August 23, 2022 by Calm

[Buckeye]

1 hour ago, Calm said:

Utah has had one of the highest baptizing records for the Church for a long time.  When we lived in Canada, my son was called to the Ogden/Logan mission; he was initially disappointed, but really enjoyed the work. He would never have had done any tracting if one of his MP’s hadn’t insisted on it as they were always booked for appts.

I haven’t kept tabs on it for the last 15 years, so perhaps things have changed. 

My son was reassigned to Ogden last year while awaiting a visa. He didn’t want to leave when the visa arrived two months later. Really loved it. 

[The Nehor]

5 hours ago, Fair Dinkum said:

The Church appears to be treading water in terms of replacing those who leave with converts, meaning that any real growth comes from the natural growth of members of the Church having children, or African converts.

But replacing American tithe payers with African tithe payers & non tithe paying babies will cost the church nearly 1 billion in net lost tithing receipts each and every year exponentially.  Meaning each year the church will lose another billion in lost revenue which will be is added to the previous years loss.  After 10 years that will result in 10 billion in lost revenue, after 20 years 20 billion in lost revenue etc

If we are just making up numbers why a billion? Why not a trillion?

[JustAnAustralian]

We're probably down 5-10% a week compared to pre-covid, but which 5-10% of the membership that is varies from week to week. If all the people that turn up turned up at the same time, there wouldn't be anything noticeable. 

Apart from that, I generally see the normal trends of

• kids get old enough to make their own decisions and decide they'd rather earn money/do stuff with friends/etc than go to church. 
• younger people move away for school 
• younger people move because they made friends with someone in another state
• older people move into nursing homes, and can't physically attend

As far as actual people leaving locally

• I know of one family that took the "no meetings due to covid19" period as a chance to stop attending (names still on records)
• I know of another mixed-faith family that ended up fully out of the church just prior to and during covid (names still on records)

[2BizE]

A few opinions about the exodus.

1) A higher population of recently faithful members are leaving.  Many GenX and Millennials.

2) I don’t think new convert retention has changed much. Still only about 10-20 per cent of converts continue faithfully after a few years.

3) I think the large drop in missionaries will result in a continued decline of active members.  A leaked video of the Q12 discuss youth retention back in 2008/2009 indicated then that 70 per cent of youth leave before age 30 and 80 per cent of international youth leave before age 30.  I think this is the trend that will lead to the continued and large exodus.

4) my ward attendance is down 50 per cent compared to pre-Covid rates. That is what I have been told. I’m not completely sure because me and my family of 8 haven’t attended in over a year.

[Fair Dinkum]

This Just In:

My wife just tonight informed me that the councilor in the bishopric of her ward and his family have all just resigned. He conducted just last month. 
 

I find this news shocking because he was such a vocal critic of my departure. 
 

I assume I’ll be receiving an apology soon 🤣😂

[Fair Dinkum]

2 hours ago, The Nehor said:

If we are just making up numbers why a billion? Why not a trillion?

That only takes 100,000 $10,000 tithe payers. Why so skeptical?

[Fair Dinkum]

5 hours ago, carbon dioxide said:

The Church is bigger today that it was 30 or 40 years ago.  So even if the percentage of people leaving is not changing, the numbers of individuals is bigger due to the higher numbers in the church.   I am sure more are leaving for whatever reason.   Heber C. Kimball said

“I want to say to you, my brethren, the time is coming when we will be mixed up in these now peaceful valleys to that extent that it will be difficult to tell the face of a Saint from the face of an enemy to the people of God. Then, brethren, look out for the great sieve, for there will be a great sifting time, and many will fall; for I say unto you there is a test, a Test, a TEST coming, and who will be able to stand?” (Orson F. Whitney, Life of Heber C. Kimball, Salt Lake City: Bookcraft, 1945, p. 446.)

So maybe we are in the middle of that test right now. 

 

Or maybe he was just making stuff up to scare the members into compliance 

[Hamba Tuhan]

I'm just not seeing any of this here. We had one family and three of their close single friends who all left over same-sex 'marriage' at roughly the same time, but that was about ten years ago, and I can't think of anyone else between then and now.

When I spend time on apostate web sites, the 'exit stories' all sound very culturally bound to me, and specifically American-centric. That may just be my interpretation/vibe.

Regarding 'replacement', I know all of the converts baptised in my ward over the past ten years, and I can summarise how they're going:

1. M - Active, endowed, sealed to deceased wife.

2. F - Active and a good member missionary.

3. M - Lost.

4. M - Inactive but completely believing. We often catch up, and I've given him priesthood blessings.

5. M - Inactive but remains close to his member friend.

6. F - Inactive, but I've visited the family in the home, and they remain believing and have intentions of being more active 'at some point'. Very complicated family life. The ex-husband killed himself over the weekend.

7. M - Inactive though endowed. Somehow got sucked into alt-right American politics and got frustrated that the Church isn't 'conservative' enough. Then got a devoutly Catholic mail-order bride, and they attend her church together. Remains friendly. Sadly, I suspect he's abusive to the wife.

8. M - Lost.

9. M - Inactive, but we're still friends on Facebook. Recently got married to a non-member. I suspect he may come back someday.

10. M - Inactive, but we're still very good friends. Also got himself a mail-order bride (Buddhist). The last time I was in the home for lunch, he asked me to bless the food.

11. F/M - Inactive mother and son. She comes and goes. She was overly protective and wouldn't let him attend quorum activities whilst he was young. He's an adult now and probably lost.

12. M - Inactive. Married a woman who banned him from attending church.

13. F - Inactive but would like to be active. She's very old and frail. I'm in the home regularly to help her, buy her food, etc.

14. M - Mostly inactive but shows up for church maybe 6-10 times per year. Close friend of my very active housemate. Will probably come back more fully someday.

15. M - Active, endowed, serving in the primary.

16. M - Unsure. He was an international student from Africa, and when he returned home, he was active and had been ordained an Elder. I recently asked him to put someone's name on the prayer roll of his temple, and he did, but I suspect he may not be fully engaged.

17. F - Inactive. Another very complicated family. Had her mum's permission to be baptised, but then got a stepfather who would beat her if she came to church. Adult now. Friendly if bumped into but currently uninterested.

18. M/F - Inactive and bitter father and daughter. Wife is a bit crazy and insists the Church is covering up abuse even though police investigation concluded that it's not. I have no clue what to expect here.

19. M - Inactive. International student from Southeast Asia. Wife divorced him after they returned home, and he stopped attending church when he moved in with his Buddhist parents. Recently remarried. We still talk online. Could go either way.

20. F - Active.

21. F - Lost.

22. M/F - Married couple. She attends a different church. He still believes fully but is stressed out by his wife's choice and mostly works on Sundays. 

23. M/F - Married couple. Endowed and sealed. She recently passed away. He's old and frail and receives the sacrament at home.

24. M - Inactive and living with his girlfriend. Strong belief and actually very engaged in missionary work.

25. M - Inactive. Married out of the faith. Still close to all of us. Will probably come back someday (wife willing).

26. M - Active, ordained. Very complicated situation, with strong mental health issues, but we love him, and he knows that!

27. M - Old and a bit on the fringes doctrinally but active.

28. M - Inactive but friendly.

29. F - Inactive. Complicated situation. Fled domestic violence, joined the Church, then ended up pregnant. We're still good friends. Not sure if she'll come back.

30. F - Lost.

31. F - Active.

32. F - Lost.

33. F - Active and preparing to serve a mission.

Edited August 24, 2022 by Hamba Tuhan

[Islander]

9 hours ago, LoudmouthMormon said:

Good blog.  I love raw data!

New Stakes in 2022: 22
Discontinued Stakes in 2022: 9

New Stakes in 2021: 43
Discontinued Stakes in 2021: 9

New Stakes in 2020: 30
Discontinued Stakes in 2020: 3 and 

 

I also like the total number of members of record tracked over time.  Not sure where to get the latest data, but the last I heard, we're still growing, but the rate of growth has been slowing for a while, and these years we're barely growing at all.  In other words, we're doing far better than most of the rest of Christianity.

 

I was released in July when our Stake was reorganized and our unit split but the new unit has less than 100 members in Sacrament attendance. Another Stake will be created in the first quarter of 2023, according to plans, but the units are much smaller. The temple district report on attendance is 30% below pre-Covid levels. I am not sure about numbers relating to "leaving the church", but the number of inactives has increased significantly. There are a number of families, known to me personally, that have not returned to church activity after the restriction ended.

[Hamba Tuhan]

51 minutes ago, Islander said:

The temple district report on attendance is 30% below pre-Covid levels. I am not sure about numbers relating to "leaving the church", but the number of inactives has increased significantly. There are a number of families, known to me personally, that have not returned to church activity after the restriction ended.

The pandemic and its impacts are certainly ongoing. I don't know the number, but our temple attendance is down as well. I'm part of that. Pre-COVID, I never missed a month. This year, I've been three times in total. I took a Friday off work to travel to the temple last month. That morning, my housemate tested positive for COVID, throwing all of us into isolation. Eleven days later, my immune system finally succumbed, and I fell ill as well. I missed three weeks of church (though was able to participate online). I'm back at church now, but I'm still too sick to travel hundreds of kilometres to the temple. Hopefully next month!

[mrmarklin]

I guess if I thought about it I could come up with a list of leavers I have known, but just as easy, I could have a list of reactivity too.  I’m 75 and in established wards I’ve been in, there has been a slight growth viv a vis leaving. 
That’s my anecdote. 

[Navidad]

The ward my wife and I attend is a bit tricky. We may often be under 100 (guesstimate) in attendance and then the next week boom . . . a Taylor, Romney, Johnson, Skousen, Whetten, Redd, etc. family reunion occurs and we are filled to the rafters, especially in the summer. Sometimes I think Thatcher, AZ must be completely depopulated some Sundays! Lots of folks enjoy coming to the colonies for their reunion. I think I have the plan of our second (since 1903 or so) cemetery etched in my mind permanently from having taken so many folks around it looking for their ancestor's graves. I still feel terribly every time I see the Erastus Fillerup little lonely isolated marker! Methinks we need a Fillerup reunion to help provide a new marker for him! I walk over there and talk to him every time I go to the cemetery.

[Stargazer]

22 hours ago, jkwilliams said:

I'm not predicting a mass exodus, but I'm wondering what you guys are seeing locally.

I was our stake clerk for three years (now ward tech specialist), and while in the calling I had a look at attendance rates in our stake in England over the years where records were available, and the only decrease I could see was due to Covid. We're back to normal now, and just before being released, I noted that attendance had sprung back up to more-or-less normal levels. I know our ward sacrament meeting attendance looks pretty much what it looked like before Covid. 

We still have a few elderly or people in delicate health who prefer to attend online. Were it not for the online pathways they would no doubt be staying home, so that may have marginally improved attendance. But it's hard to be sure.

I have yet to visit a Church of England service, but I understand that attendance in their services have been steadily declining over the years. Apparently, in 1983 2/3s of people in the UK self-identified as Christian, but that has declined to about 1/3. In general, Europe's religiosity has been declining pretty steadily since WW2. I'd say that LDS participation has held fairly steady over that time, in comparison.

[Stargazer]

13 hours ago, Fair Dinkum said:

This Just In:

My wife just tonight informed me that the councilor in the bishopric of her ward and his family have all just resigned. He conducted just last month. 
 

I find this news shocking because he was such a vocal critic of my departure. 
 

I assume I’ll be receiving an apology soon 🤣😂

Just curious... do you know why they resigned?

[Rivers]

Isn’t it true that we are doing better at retaining members than most other Christian denominations?

[bluebell]

My current ward is over 600 members with an active rate of 60%. Rumor is that it’ll be split soon. Guess we’ll see. 

[BluePlanet]

Served as a bishop in a suburban U.S. ward, worked with youth forever (current seminary teacher), been in the same stake for 20 years--watching trends carefully--and know the lay of the land pretty well.  My observations:

- I don't believe we are facing a true membership crisis (we are doing better than most churches), but..

- The trends are definitely concerning and I'm confident this is an fact-based conclusion and not simply explainable by social media feedback loops or those leaving being louder than previous generations (though both things do happen). *We are in an especially difficult period for the church.*

- LGBT issues: young people cannot find the sin in a committed, loving, same-sex relationship. They ask me: Where is the danger? Where is the "badness"?  Increasingly they feel tension between the church's view and the goodness they see in their LGBT friends (and they have many).  They cannot see how allowing an LGBT marriage hurts a heterosexual marriage.  The dissonance between their lived experience and certain church teachings is difficult to rationalize.  One third of our ward's YW identify as queer.  About a fourth of my seminary class identify this way.  Similar trends are found in every ward in our stake.  (And of course, these feelings are stronger in youth but obviously many adult church members feel the same).  I cannot see how this issue just melts away.  It will only grow in prominence and difficulty.  If we are going to die on this hill, we seriously need to find a new way to message the rallying cry (I'm not sure such a message exists).

- Women's issues:  certainly not all, but many women I know, including more and more young women, do not like to be treated *in any way* as second class.  You can invoke all the "different but equal* talks you want, but the fact remains that men run the church and younger women, especially, will not just stand idly by as the rest of the world affords them growing equality.

- The messages that worked for people in the past -- e.g. the one true church, The Family™, perfect leaders, pristine history (never stated, but implied) -- are not resonating as before.  Especially for youth, these elements do not seem to stoke the fire of faith as they once did.  We are not speaking the faith language of the upcoming generation, or, we are not translating the old messaging very effectively.

[Duncan]

3 minutes ago, BluePlanet said:

Served as a bishop in a suburban U.S. ward, worked with youth forever (current seminary teacher), been in the same stake for 20 years--watching trends carefully--and know the lay of the land pretty well.  My observations:

- I don't believe we are facing a true membership crisis (we are doing better than most churches), but..

- The trends are definitely concerning and I'm confident this is an fact-based conclusion and not simply explainable by social media feedback loops or those leaving being louder than previous generations (though both things do happen). *We are in an especially difficult period for the church.*

- LGBT issues: young people cannot find the sin in a committed, loving, same-sex relationship. They ask me: Where is the danger? Where is the "badness"?  Increasingly they feel tension between the church's view and the goodness they see in their LGBT friends (and they have many).  They cannot see how allowing an LGBT marriage hurts a heterosexual marriage.  The dissonance between their lived experience and certain church teachings is difficult to rationalize.  One third of our ward's YW identify as queer.  About a fourth of my seminary class identify this way.  Similar trends are found in every ward in our stake.  (And of course, these feelings are stronger in youth but obviously many adult church members feel the same).  I cannot see how this issue just melts away.  It will only grow in prominence and difficulty.  If we are going to die on this hill, we seriously need to find a new way to message the rallying cry (I'm not sure such a message exists).

- Women's issues:  certainly not all, but many women I know, including more and more young women, do not like to be treated *in any way* as second class.  You can invoke all the "different but equal* talks you want, but the fact remains that men run the church and younger women, especially, will not just stand idly by as the rest of the world affords them growing equality.

- The messages that worked for people in the past -- e.g. the one true church, The Family™, perfect leaders, pristine history (never stated, but implied) -- are not resonating as before.  Especially for youth, these elements do not seem to stoke the fire of faith as they once did.  We are not speaking the faith language of the upcoming generation, or, we are not translating the old messaging very effectively.

spot on!

[jkwilliams]

7 minutes ago, Duncan said:

spot on!

Yeah, those cover the reasons my kids have left. 

[bluebell]

22 minutes ago, BluePlanet said:

Served as a bishop in a suburban U.S. ward, worked with youth forever (current seminary teacher), been in the same stake for 20 years--watching trends carefully--and know the lay of the land pretty well.  My observations:

- I don't believe we are facing a true membership crisis (we are doing better than most churches), but..

- The trends are definitely concerning and I'm confident this is an fact-based conclusion and not simply explainable by social media feedback loops or those leaving being louder than previous generations (though both things do happen). *We are in an especially difficult period for the church.*

- LGBT issues: young people cannot find the sin in a committed, loving, same-sex relationship. They ask me: Where is the danger? Where is the "badness"?  Increasingly they feel tension between the church's view and the goodness they see in their LGBT friends (and they have many).  They cannot see how allowing an LGBT marriage hurts a heterosexual marriage.  The dissonance between their lived experience and certain church teachings is difficult to rationalize.  One third of our ward's YW identify as queer.  About a fourth of my seminary class identify this way.  Similar trends are found in every ward in our stake.  (And of course, these feelings are stronger in youth but obviously many adult church members feel the same).  I cannot see how this issue just melts away.  It will only grow in prominence and difficulty.  If we are going to die on this hill, we seriously need to find a new way to message the rallying cry (I'm not sure such a message exists).

- Women's issues:  certainly not all, but many women I know, including more and more young women, do not like to be treated *in any way* as second class.  You can invoke all the "different but equal* talks you want, but the fact remains that men run the church and younger women, especially, will not just stand idly by as the rest of the world affords them growing equality.

- The messages that worked for people in the past -- e.g. the one true church, The Family™, perfect leaders, pristine history (never stated, but implied) -- are not resonating as before.  Especially for youth, these elements do not seem to stoke the fire of faith as they once did.  We are not speaking the faith language of the upcoming generation, or, we are not translating the old messaging very effectively.

Very good observations.  Welcome to the board.

[Chum]

18 hours ago, Tacenda said:

I honestly wonder if it's political stuff going on and waking people up to a belief in God and country, or become more patriotic, and Latter-day Saints are surely that.

Increasing politics in my last ward was a final straw. At that point, there was less than nothing for me. Before that it was just years of cost with little/no benefit.

Clarifying a few things: That state was specific to that ward. I also come with a few hurdles unique to me, eg: Sacrament doesn't do anything spiritual for me. The quiet is nice tho.

[Senator]

42 minutes ago, BluePlanet said:

Served as a bishop in a suburban U.S. ward, worked with youth forever (current seminary teacher), been in the same stake for 20 years--watching trends carefully--and know the lay of the land pretty well.  My observations:

- I don't believe we are facing a true membership crisis (we are doing better than most churches), but..

- The trends are definitely concerning and I'm confident this is an fact-based conclusion and not simply explainable by social media feedback loops or those leaving being louder than previous generations (though both things do happen). *We are in an especially difficult period for the church.*

- LGBT issues: young people cannot find the sin in a committed, loving, same-sex relationship. They ask me: Where is the danger? Where is the "badness"?  Increasingly they feel tension between the church's view and the goodness they see in their LGBT friends (and they have many).  They cannot see how allowing an LGBT marriage hurts a heterosexual marriage.  The dissonance between their lived experience and certain church teachings is difficult to rationalize.  One third of our ward's YW identify as queer.  About a fourth of my seminary class identify this way.  Similar trends are found in every ward in our stake.  (And of course, these feelings are stronger in youth but obviously many adult church members feel the same).  I cannot see how this issue just melts away.  It will only grow in prominence and difficulty.  If we are going to die on this hill, we seriously need to find a new way to message the rallying cry (I'm not sure such a message exists).

- Women's issues:  certainly not all, but many women I know, including more and more young women, do not like to be treated *in any way* as second class.  You can invoke all the "different but equal* talks you want, but the fact remains that men run the church and younger women, especially, will not just stand idly by as the rest of the world affords them growing equality.

- The messages that worked for people in the past -- e.g. the one true church, The Family™, perfect leaders, pristine history (never stated, but implied) -- are not resonating as before.  Especially for youth, these elements do not seem to stoke the fire of faith as they once did.  We are not speaking the faith language of the upcoming generation, or, we are not translating the old messaging very effectively.

Well said.  These bullet points are pretty accurate to the descriptions my kids and extended family members have expressed. 

Edited August 24, 2022 by Senator

[Chum]

1 hour ago, BluePlanet said:

- LGBT issues: young people cannot find the sin in a committed, loving, same-sex relationship. They ask me: Where is the danger? Where is the "badness"? 

- Women's issues:  certainly not all, but many women I know, including more and more young women, do not like to be treated *in any way* as second class.  You can invoke all the "different but equal* talks you want, but the fact remains that men run the church and younger women, especially, will not just stand idly by as the rest of the world affords them growing equality.

- The messages that worked for people in the past -- e.g. the one true church, The Family™, perfect leaders, pristine history (never stated, but implied) -- are not resonating as before.  Especially for youth, these elements do not seem to stoke the fire of faith as they once did.  We are not speaking the faith language of the upcoming generation, or, we are not translating the old messaging very effectively.

The people who care about sexual purity tend to be those who have the resources to care. In the face of hunger, homelessness and navigating a world that becomes immensely more complex and punitive each generation, notions of purity can't reasonably compete. If a lack of healthcare hints that you'll die without seeing your grandchildren grow up, who is sleeping with who is less likely to demand your attention.

If the joys we need today - just to sustain living - are negated by ceaseless stress, promises of eternal happiness might not be that relatable.

Edited August 24, 2022 by Chum