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The Nehor

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Everything posted by The Nehor

  1. Recent events have seemed to follow a pattern I first noticed on my Mission. A feeling that the days last forever but the weeks fly by.
  2. Just a general reminder: The 2020-21 flu vaccine is out. If you do not have any health conditions that make it unwise to get it I recommend doing so. Not only does it mitigate the risk of getting ill it also means it is less likely you or anyone you would infect if you did not get it will take medical resources needed for the pandemic. It also protects infants, toddlers, children, and the elderly that you spend time around. On a selfish note it means you are less likely to get flu-like symptoms and be unsure if it is a conventional influenva flu or caussed by Covid.
  3. A count shows about 30 vaccines currently in human trials with over 100 others being investigated. Dr. Fauci stated that we are more likely still at least a year away from a vaccine. Of the 30 vaccines I found 10 are still exclusively in Phase 1 trials, 14 are in Phase 1 and 2 exclusively, and 6 are in all three phases. Phase 1 usually involves 20 to 100 participants. Typically this phase takes several months. Phase 2 involves several hundred people. This phase takes several months to up to 2 years. Phase 3 usually involves thousands of people and usually lasts at least a year and sometimes as long as 4 years or more. Restrictions are being relaxed to some degree so it may not take quite that long and many trials are moving forward faster than usual. Historically about 70% make it through Phase 1, 33% make it through Phase 2, and about 25% make it through Phase 3. This means normally a vaccine has about a 6% chance of making it all the way through. It looks like some beat the odds disproportionately but this may be due to rushing the vaccines through the stages and we may see more disqualifications in later phases due to later results from earlier phases. Russia is skipping ahead and is planning to authorize a vaccine tomorrow (August 12th). The WHO and many other nations question the efficacy and safety of the vaccine due to the rushed trials. Russia still plans to produce enough to start a mass vaccination of the populace in October.
  4. If it is a tragedy then why risk more death by opening everything back up? Saying it is random variations in infection rates or my vacation rationale or even just people being more careful are all more logical reasons for the shift in the curve than your assumption that if no one can come up with a better explanation it must be herd immunity. There have not been nearly enough infected according to the latest antibody testing samples in Stockholm for herd immunity to start tanking case numbers. You have no idea what you are talking about. Herd immunity is real. We are just not anywhere near it being a factor. That also assumes immunity lasts a long time. That there are antibodies does not prove there will always be antibodies. Wait 20 years after getting a tetanus and step on a rusty nail if you want to test the eternal antibodies theory. If immunity is short-lived then yes, herd immunity is a joke which is exactly what Pogi said. Many studies were shut down due to ethical concerns. One study in Brazil found a quarter of the patients in a trial were developing potentially deadly changes in the electrical system that regulates the heart beat. The FDA shut down several trials. The initial trial that showed promise was flawed because patients that died were excluded from the results. The reality is we have much more promising treatment drugs already. Continually re-adjudicating the data on this one gives the impression it is either a miracle cure or a death sentence. Neither are true. Remdesivir is a current frontrunner for treatment. While it is not an official treatment yet in the US and the FDA has not yet approved it tests are promising for severe cases though they need larger sample sizes in studies to determine if the benefit is substantial. The first study saw almost a halving of the death rate but the sample size was small enough that that fell in the margin of error. Dexamethasone is another frontrunner. When used on those on ventilators it had a significant impact on the number of deaths. More studies are being done. Plasma transfusions from those who have survived the infection are being studied but the data is very mixed. There are dozens of additional treatments being examined and many have a better track record than hydrochloroquine so acting like the studies were stopped for political reasons is unlikely. It is more likely they focused on more promising treatments. The people most influenced by the politicization of the treatment are those who are influenced primarily by political news and see in the drug the vindication or condemnation of the people who politicized it in the first place.
  5. And who started the politicization by lying about it? I remember first hearing about it before it went big with the first study. In days flaws in the study were uncovered. More testing was needed but the prognosis did not look good. Then a certain head of state started touting it as a miracle cure. Suddenly support for the drug was tied to which team you are on. We did the same thing with masks. We are very dumb people. Herd immunity is still a LONG way away. To get a very substantial decrease in cases you need about 50% immunity. To hope for eradication you need at least 75% and probably more around 90%. Serology tests in Sweden show they are in the mid teens range. Some have argued it is higher but there is little to support this. If they continue with the herd immunity approach you can expect the number of total dead to at least triple before the virus burns out. Herd immunity is also a terrible "strategy". It is basically code for doing little to nothing. Sweden never declared it as their policy. The British flirted with the idea. It is also worth noting that while Sweden's official steps were less than most the situation on the ground had a soft lockdown. It was just not government enforced. Businesses voluntarily went work from home, people canceled time with friends, and a lot of people limited shopping trips and other group activities. They also generally followed the restrictions on occupancy of businesses that were put in place. They are similar to the ones still in place in most of the US that are almost completely ignored. Despite this they are doing much worse than their two neighbors. Norway and Finland both have heavy restrictions on the border and Sweden's government threw a bit of a fit over it. Sweden held to soft regulations better than the US did to enforceable ones. It is mostly a cultural thing. The Swedish people complain about their government (they have democracy so that is assumed) but they largely trust it. In the US we culturally distrust government and have a substantial segment of the population with a "You're not the boss of me" attitude. Our culture of individualism is also horrible at fostering discipline in self-restraint for the good of others. Sweden also did not have the disadvantage of federalism the US has where states act like their own little nations especially when there is little to no federal guidance. I suspect part of the leveling Sweden is seeing is due to their vacation policy. It is mandated that all employers give their employees four consecutive vacation weeks in the summer. The preferred time for many is late July to early August. In addition those who can afford it often go to a summer home for at least part of the summer. People I know there are going on vacation and basically isolating in family and/or friend groups which would explain the dip. I worry that when summer ends and their vacation slowdown ends that their numbers will climb again. Edit: Boring comments from me pointing out the irrelevance. What "light at the end of the tunnel"?
  6. Well, who wants the filthy unwashed masses around when you are on a tour?
  7. We put slip covers over everyone’s shoes. Called the bootie brigade.
  8. When the Preston temple was dedicated I remember we had a VVIP Day (Royal family snubbed us but a local lord who owns a lot of land involved in church history was there) and at least one VIP day.
  9. Many people lack the strength of their convictions.
  10. Don’t knock it. Lehi was big on being woke. He would know. His adventures started mostly with a dream. O that ye would awake; awake from a deep sleep, yea, even from the sleep of hell, and shake off the awful chains by which ye are bound, which are the chains which bind the children of men, that they are carried away captive down to the eternal gulf of misery and woe. Awake! and arise from the dust, and hear the words of a trembling parent, whose limbs ye must soon lay down in the cold and silent grave, from whence no traveler can return; a few more days and I go the way of all the earth.
  11. I doubt the shooter did a risk/reward analysis. They were almost certainly angry but the attack had little chance of doing any real damage and had a high risk of getting caught. We are not dealing with a budding Sun Tzu here.
  12. Depending on the model of airplane and settings it is 20-30 times an hour. That is a rough estimate and some air stays for the whole flight but it is a small percentage. An airplane is safer than setting in an identical space on the ground with normal temperature controls would be. It is suspected you are most likely to catch Covid on a plane when it is on the ground, primarily in the boarding stage which involves sustained proximity without as much air circulation as you get in the air. Exiting the plane tends to go more quickly but is also a good vector. Then again this is theory. In cases where it is suspected it spread on a plane there is no way to tell when during the flight the infection occurred.
  13. They usually keep it vague. When pressed the usual vague "explanation" is that the lockdown's isolation and economic ramifications will cause a bunch of suicides and domestic murders that dwarf the ravages of Covid.
  14. I am definitely not planning to take over a small nation and set up a theocracy there as the king. Definitely not. Why are you looking at me like that?
  15. What if you are a reigning monarch. Is the royal "we" acceptable in that case?
  16. These people have been discredited. Simone Gold is working for a political campaign to get the lockdown lifted. She has spun folk tales about a "mass casualty event" if the lockdowns are not lifted quickly.
  17. No, grabbed an italian ice out of the freezer without looking and ate it with eye closed to see if I could identify flavor. Did it. It was lemon. Not berry lemon, just lemon. Hopefully that means I am good. Edit: Tested again for scientific rigot. It tasted like blue raspberry and was. I wanted to conduct further studies but realized that is the child in me wanting more sugar.
  18. Yeah, it is not true. The exterior of the mask is unlikely to be carrying much more virus than your shirt. It mitigates longer range dispersal By the wearer and provides a minor benefit to the wearer in screening out some virus from the air. When I had a snack a few hours ago it seemed kind of tasteless. Now the hypochondriac in me thinks I have Covid. I hope I am just tired. I devised a taste test I can use tomorrow.
  19. Outside of a few rare cases where it is justified this practice is generally restricted to those who should not be taking the sacrament themselves.
  20. Bwahahahahahahahahahahahaha! That is a good one. Lol Oh wait, you are serious? Oh, in that case: No, these statements are false.
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