Covid cases, hospitalizations, death trends and other touchy subjects…

[InCognitus]

6 hours ago, provoman said:

Which statement overrides the other?

• we urge the use of face masks in public meetings whenever social distancing is not possible, verse
• We can win this war if everyone will follow the wise and thoughtful recommendations of medical experts and government leaders

You are missing a key phrase (bolded above).  Not all recommendations from government leaders are wise and thoughtful, the same could be said for some "medical experts" (depending on their area of medical expertise).  And I take President Nelson to be a wise and thoughtful medical expert as well as our prophet.  It seems like the appropriate time for his service.

[Raingirl]

54 minutes ago, pogi said:

This is so sad to see.  So many scriptures come to mind:

https://www.ldsfreedomforum.com/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=62167

Thick mists of darkness are among us.  The iron rod has been presented.  The brazen serpent has been lifted up.  The later-day sifting continues.  

Over a simple face covering request (and shot in the arm) the “saints” of God will drag our prophet through the mud.

 

It’s baffling to me that President Nelson- a prophet and a physician- is pleading with members to help save lives by doing something as small and simple as wearing a mask, but some members are basically flipping him (and everyone else) off, and saying it’s an inconvenience. Or crying about their “freedom”.  

[Calm]

19 minutes ago, Raingirl said:

It’s baffling to me that President Nelson- a prophet and a physician- is pleading with members to help save lives by doing something as small and simple as wearing a mask, but some members are basically flipping him (and everyone else) off, and saying it’s an inconvenience. Or crying about their “freedom”.  

And that it is a sign of his apostasy even. 
 

Of all the things to use to draw their line in the sand. 

Edited August 13, 2021 by Calm

[provoman]

34 minutes ago, InCognitus said:

You are missing a key phrase (bolded above).  Not all recommendations from government leaders are wise and thoughtful, the same could be said for some "medical experts" (depending on their area of medical expertise).  And I take President Nelson to be a wise and thoughtful medical expert as well as our prophet.  It seems like the appropriate time for his service.

Nope did not miss that subjective language.

[provoman]

nevermind

Edited August 13, 2021 by provoman

[provoman]

..........,,

Edited August 13, 2021 by provoman

[Hamba Tuhan]

1 hour ago, pogi said:

The later-day sifting continues.  

Apt choice of verbs. From what I can tell, this has been going on forever (cf. Samuel the Lamanite's words in Helaman 13).

I really like what Elder Neal A. Maxwell (and Pres Marion G. Romney) said on this topic:

Quote

But make no mistake about it, brothers and sisters; in the months and years ahead, events will require of each member that he or she decide whether or not he or she will follow the First Presidency. Members will find it more difficult to halt longer between two opinions (see 1 Kings 18:21).

President Marion G. Romney said, many years ago, that he had “never hesitated to follow the counsel of the Authorities of the Church even though it crossed my social, professional, or political life” (CR, April 1941, p. 123). This is a hard doctrine, but it is a particularly vital doctrine in a society which is becoming more wicked. In short, brothers and sisters, not being ashamed of the gospel of Jesus Christ includes not being ashamed of the prophets of Jesus Christ.

To be honest, I wasn't surprised when same-sex 'marriage' became one of these events. I never would have guessed, however, that for certain Americans, basic public health measures would too.

Edited August 13, 2021 by Hamba Tuhan

[BlueDreams]

30 minutes ago, Hamba Tuhan said:

Apt choice of verbs. From what I can tell, this has been going on forever (cf. Samuel the Lamanite's words in Helaman 13).

I really like what Elder Neal A. Maxwell (and Pres Marion G. Romney) said on this topic:

To be honest, I wasn't surprised when same-sex 'marriage' became one of these events. I never would have guessed, however, that for certain Americans, basic public health measures would too.

I think the part that says “each” is really important. SSM didn’t effect members views equally. Nor does this of course. Each member likely has their own thing that they have to grapple with and figure out. 
I agree that it’s surprising that it’s THIS one. Literally a public health crisis, not exactly a subjective wishy washy experience, and yet ..still. 
I had a few people on FB today talk about their own intuition as guidance among other feel-good memes about choice. They were what I assume are from “solid” members of the church. It was so frustrating to watch and realize not even the lord’s apostles and prophets can get you off that hill. 
 

 I think the one person’s cookie club comment about the church is telling. There’s groups in our church that have gotten super comfortable with an assumption of spiritual rightness because the main church beliefs/cultural assumptions are in large part aligned with their worldview. When people are absolutely certain they are in the right, It keeps people from asking the proverbial question of “lord, is it I?” 

I’m not surprised that this happened. There’ve been other moments that I’ve seen in US members at least where they’ve become set around a view usually because of sociopolitical stances and end up minimizing, rationalizing, or criticizing when the church leaders do or state something that contradicts it. It’s been there it’s just not been so global in impact before. Some of us are married more to our own sense of rightness than anything else. 

with luv, 

BD 

Edited August 13, 2021 by BlueDreams

[Rain]

6 hours ago, rongo said:

It will be very interesting to see what, if anything, happens on Sunday. i.e., if stakes continue laissez faire, or send out local communiques in the next two days.

 

We are having stake conference this weekend.  This comes from the email we got tonight,

"... we wish to echo their sentiments to respectfully, “urge use of face masks in public meetings whenever social distancing is not possible.”

"For our upcoming stake conference we have pondered and prayed to know the Lord’s will for this conference.  From this, we will not be changing distancing guidelines for the building during this conference and urge each member and family to prayerfully and carefully make their own decisions regarding the wearing of face masks. "

6 hours ago, rongo said:

I think mileage will vary; some will renew mask pressure, and others won't. 

The timing over the last few days is interesting. President Eyring's son (president of BYUI) did a video asking BYUI students to wear masks and get vaccinated.

https://www.facebook.com/BYUID/videos/822225785160751

A stake president from the Salt Lake area put out this video yesterday:

I don't know if the downvotes are from his stake, or internet trolls. I hate the whole downvoting concept in general. 

I don't like downvoting either.

6 hours ago, rongo said:

It will be very interesting to see if the Brethren shift beyond encouraging action to requiring it. 

Just as long as we don't go back to alternating rows, no hymn books, sanitation theater, etc.  I think many/most local leaders will continue to not confront people not wearing masks. 

I wasn't big on wiping down of the podium after each speaker.  To do sanitizing it needs to stay wet for about 10 minutes - which kind of makes one wonder about the point of cleaning wipes at any time as there is not enough liquid to keep them that wet for all the wipes till the end.

I hate the waste of cups putting each sacrament bread in each cup, but I have to say I have had a nosepicker (one who does it every week)  in every class or wolf den group I've taught since living here and it is nice to pick up a piece of bread knowing those children have not touched them. 

[carbon dioxide]

3 hours ago, pogi said:

This is so sad to see.  So many scriptures come to mind:

https://www.ldsfreedomforum.com/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=62167

Thick mists of darkness are among us.  The iron rod has been presented.  The brazen serpent has been lifted up.  The later-day sifting continues.  

Over a simple face covering request (and shot in the arm) the “saints” of God will drag our prophet through the mud.

 

Some will do so.  However they do so at their own peril.  COVID does not care. It wants host bodies to infect and multiple in.   The Indian variant transmits twice as much as the original and it most likely causes people to become more ill.  Many anti vax people already have been humbled by the virus.  I suppose some members will have to be humbled as well.  When enough sickness and death has come upon the vamp of the anti-mask and anti vax people, they will have a change in heart.  It is sad that people have to die over silly issues that have little to do with preserving real freedom.

Edited August 13, 2021 by carbon dioxide

[Metis_LDS]

38 minutes ago, carbon dioxide said:

COVID does not care. It wants host bodies to infect and multiple in.

If COVID were a fire we would be it's fuel.

Edited August 13, 2021 by Metis_LDS
grammar

[BCSpace]

 

5 hours ago, Raingirl said:

It’s baffling to me that President Nelson- a prophet and a physician- is pleading with members to help save lives by doing something as small and simple as wearing a mask, but some members are basically flipping him (and everyone else) off, and saying it’s an inconvenience. Or crying about their “freedom”.  

Actually, most of us who aren't worried about COVID understand that even the CDC reports on their COVID-19 Mortality Overview page (in the fine print) that only 5% or fewer of the reported COVID deaths are "of" COVID as opposed to "with" COVID. That makes the already miniscule death rate even smaller and nothing to worry about assuming they can even pin a rate down. We are dumbfounded that the corporate and social media would collude so much to suppress information, even scientific information from reliable sources, about the ineffectiveness of masking, social distancing, the vaccines and the effectiveness of other treatments. Such censorship only lends credence to the notion of tyranny and oppression.  The doctrine and scripture of the Church itself is against such things. C.f. Alma 30:7 for example.

We understand that President Nelson was a surgeon and a medical researcher of no small consequence in the past.  But the Church recently put a premium on using the right sources and I think Nelson hasn't had the time to see that many once reliable sources of news, information, and even science from years past are now corrupted. I'm quite sure the First Presidency prayed about it and I believe they believe they received an answer.  However, and I know it's hard for some people to understand, a prophet can be fallible and still be a prophet, even a good one. I have no such qualms and such does not present a stumbling block to my faith.  Even so, considering that the statement also says...

“We can win this war if everyone will follow the wise and thoughtful recommendations of medical experts and government leaders,”

...I don't think I'm in conflict with the First Presidency at all because I am indeed following "the wise and thoughtful recommendations of medical experts and government leaders". They're just not necessarily someone else's preferred experts and leaders.

In a similar vein, I think the Church has gotten so good at walking a fine line between sides on highly politicized issues that statements like this amount to equivocation.  Besides "which experts and leaders?" we might also ask "which policies?" or "which immigrants" etc. etc. I think the Church needs to stand for something and risk offending some of it's members. By not doing so, it loses much power and influence.

I know, I know.  Criticizing Church leaders, steadying the ark, and all that. But it's what I believe and I have no problem expressing these things to my local and regional Church leaders. There are quite a few who agree.

 

[Calm]

2 hours ago, BCSpace said:

Actually, most of us who aren't worried about COVID understand that even the CDC reports on their COVID-19 Mortality Overview page (in the fine print) that only 5% or fewer of the reported COVID deaths are "of" COVID as opposed to "with" COVID. That makes the already miniscule death rate even smaller and nothing to worry about assuming they can even pin a rate down.

It can be hard to tease out the factor of how much having Covid contributed to a person’s death, perhaps it made no difference and the person would have died anyway, perhaps they died a few months sooner, or perhaps the person could have survived their other issues if they didn’t have Covid on top of everything else. 
 

If concerned about over counting, then why not compare 2020 deaths to 2019 deaths as Covid would be a main contributor to any large bump?  If it stayed approximately the same as in making a “minuscule death rate even smaller”, then Covid should have had little effect on numbers…and yet we get a drop of a year in a half year of life expectancy and at least 260,000 more deaths this year.
 

Quote

Data is provided through the 48th week of 2020. So far this year, the CDC reports that 2,877,601 people have died. At the same point in 2018, the number was 2,606,928, and in 2019, it was 2,614,950. The number of deaths to this point in 2020 is at least 260,000 greater than either of the past two years. But that number is an underestimate because the CDC publishes data based on the number of death certificates it has received. Since it can take a couple of weeks for all death certificates to be recorded, the numbers for the last two weeks, at least, will increase as time goes by. If the last two weeks produce a similar number of deaths as the weeks before, the margin to this point will actually be close to 310,000.

This was published Dec 2020, so no doubt there are better numbers now and they are able to take the full year to compare as opposed to using 11 months for each year to compare like to like.

Also look at life expectancy which has been on a steady trend up only to lose a whole year in just the first six months of last year.

https://www.statnews.com/2021/02/18/u-s-life-expectancy-fell-by-a-year-in-the-first-half-of-2020-cdc-report-finds/

 

Edited August 13, 2021 by Calm

[Calm]

Also over all mortality rate went up over 15% last year. Do you consider that change to be minuscule?

Due to changes in population numbers over the years, best to use deaths per 100,000 population. 

Quote

The age-adjusted death rate increased by 15.9% in 2020. Overall death rates were highest among non-Hispanic Black persons and non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native persons. COVID-19 was the third leading cause of death, and the COVID-19 death rate was highest among non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native persons.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7014e1.htm

Quote

In 2020, approximately 3,358,814 deaths† occurred in the United States. From 2019 to 2020, the estimated age-adjusted death rate increased by 15.9%, from 715.2 to 828.7 deaths per 100,000 population.

For 2019:

Edited:  needed to compare like to like…just going to use the above unless someone wants more 

Edited August 13, 2021 by Calm

[sheilauk]

The UK has lifted all restrictions (no idea why other than the economy given delta ) but our stake is still social distancing, sanitising,  wearing masks and using separate sections for bread (we don't use cups,  but put individual pieces where the cups would go).  I will keep social distancing and masks until covid is much more under control.  I welcome the latest statement from the First Presidency.

[Hamba Tuhan]

37 minutes ago, Calm said:

Also over all mortality rate went up over 15% last year. Do you consider that change to be minuscule?

I certainly appreciate the effort, but I strongly suspect that someone who has concluded that 'sources of information' are 'corrupt' is rather immune to data.

[Calm]

12 minutes ago, Hamba Tuhan said:

I certainly appreciate the effort, but I strongly suspect that someone who has concluded that 'sources of information' are 'corrupt' is rather immune to data.

Unless he believes the CDC is coming up with imaginary corpses, how can the absolute death numbers be corrupted?

[Hamba Tuhan]

7 hours ago, BlueDreams said:

There’s groups in our church that have gotten super comfortable with an assumption of spiritual rightness because the main church beliefs/cultural assumptions are in large part aligned with their worldview. When people are absolutely certain they are in the right, It keeps people from asking the proverbial question of “lord, is it I?”

I think you are right. I concluded a few years back that this is precisely where most Saints were right about the time that plural marriage was introduced in Nauvoo. The Restoration was a very close fit to what people wanted it to be.

And then it wasn't, and people had to figure out what to do.

[Hamba Tuhan]

9 minutes ago, Calm said:

Unless he believes the CDC is coming up with imaginary corpses, how can the absolute death numbers be corrupted?

I think you may be seriously underestimating how far down the conspiracy rabbit hole people have fallen. The CDC is part of the conspiracy, and the living prophets are too blind to realise it!

Edited August 13, 2021 by Hamba Tuhan

[Calm]

I have only seen people ignore the increase in numbers, no justification of them. Are there theories as to the increase (before the vaccine at least, I can imagine attributing deaths this year to the vaccines as a possibility)?  Do any actually think the CDC is outright lying about total death numbers?  How is that going to work with census numbers and other such?  That would not be a scam easy to perpetuate. 
 

The jump in numbers needs to be explained somehow.  They could misrepresent age to lower life expectancy, but how can they come up with extra bodies?

Edited August 13, 2021 by Calm

[pogi]

4 hours ago, BCSpace said:

 

Actually, most of us who aren't worried about COVID understand that even the CDC reports on their COVID-19 Mortality Overview page (in the fine print) that only 5% or fewer of the reported COVID deaths are "of" COVID as opposed to "with" COVID. That makes the already miniscule death rate even smaller and nothing to worry about assuming they can even pin a rate down. We are dumbfounded that the corporate and social media would collude so much to suppress information, even scientific information from reliable sources, about the ineffectiveness of masking, social distancing, the vaccines and the effectiveness of other treatments. Such censorship only lends credence to the notion of tyranny and oppression.  The doctrine and scripture of the Church itself is against such things. C.f. Alma 30:7 for example.

We understand that President Nelson was a surgeon and a medical researcher of no small consequence in the past.  But the Church recently put a premium on using the right sources and I think Nelson hasn't had the time to see that many once reliable sources of news, information, and even science from years past are now corrupted. I'm quite sure the First Presidency prayed about it and I believe they believe they received an answer.  However, and I know it's hard for some people to understand, a prophet can be fallible and still be a prophet, even a good one. I have no such qualms and such does not present a stumbling block to my faith.  Even so, considering that the statement also says...

“We can win this war if everyone will follow the wise and thoughtful recommendations of medical experts and government leaders,”

...I don't think I'm in conflict with the First Presidency at all because I am indeed following "the wise and thoughtful recommendations of medical experts and government leaders". They're just not necessarily someone else's preferred experts and leaders.

In a similar vein, I think the Church has gotten so good at walking a fine line between sides on highly politicized issues that statements like this amount to equivocation.  Besides "which experts and leaders?" we might also ask "which policies?" or "which immigrants" etc. etc. I think the Church needs to stand for something and risk offending some of it's members. By not doing so, it loses much power and influence.

I know, I know.  Criticizing Church leaders, steadying the ark, and all that. But it's what I believe and I have no problem expressing these things to my local and regional Church leaders. There are quite a few who agree.

 

As I have pointed out, look to the medical associations in the US.  Do you really think that all the associations which guide the medical profession and keep them up to date with best practice are all deceived and deluded about Covid and masks?  It is not just the CDC, which people like to pick on.  

Where are all these top leaders in medicine who disagree with masks, or who don't think COVID is all that bad?  The best of the best, who have proven themselves over and over and over, and have earned the trust of the medical field all agree. 

These associations publish all the medical journals that all doctors reference in their practice.  They are the backbone of American medicine.  If they are wrong about Covid and masks, then medicine in America is totally hopeless and worthless.    Yet, I have no doubt that if you get terribly sick with COVID, or anything else, you will not hesitate to go to these “unwise and unthoughtful” doctors for care in the ICU. 

If COVID is not serious, why are ICUs overflowing with COVID patients?  I challenge you to find one active ICU doc who doesn’t think we should be taking COVID seriously, or doesn't think that COVID is dangerous and deadly, even for younger people.  Never in their lifetimes have they been slammed with anything like this.  Many are quitting from exhaustion and burnout, exacerbating the situation.  They can't keep up. 

 

Edited August 13, 2021 by pogi

[HappyJackWagon]

10 hours ago, Raingirl said:

It’s baffling to me that President Nelson- a prophet and a physician- is pleading with members to help save lives by doing something as small and simple as wearing a mask, but some members are basically flipping him (and everyone else) off, and saying it’s an inconvenience. Or crying about their “freedom”.  

This is merely an illustration of the fact that the vast majority of members Pick and Choose what words from prophets they will follow. For years I have heard people justify the anti-vax position by stating that the church (despite some fairly strong statements about the usefulness of vaccines) allows them to choose for themselves. 

I readily admit that I choose how and when I follow the counsel of church leaders. I'm considered an apostate for how I choose to follow or not. Now people have to consider whether or not they will follow a very clear statement from the First Presidency. They still have a choice but they now will have to admit that they too are choosing not to follow church leaders in some regards.

All the wailing I'm seeing about the usurpation of agency is silly. People have a choice. There aren't even any stated consequences for not following church leaders call for masks and vaccines. I think people are upset because they will be exposed as refusing to follow church leaders.

[Bane]

10 hours ago, Raingirl said:

It’s baffling to me that President Nelson- a prophet and a physician- is pleading with members to help save lives by doing something as small and simple as wearing a mask, but some members are basically flipping him (and everyone else) off, and saying it’s an inconvenience. Or crying about their “freedom”.  

If his counsel (which I followed) to fast and pray for the pandemic to abate didn't have any noticeable effect in causing it to do so, why would I now follow his counsel to wear a mask?

[rongo]

10 hours ago, Rain said:

We are having stake conference this weekend.  This comes from the email we got tonight,

"... we wish to echo their sentiments to respectfully, “urge use of face masks in public meetings whenever social distancing is not possible.”

"For our upcoming stake conference we have pondered and prayed to know the Lord’s will for this conference.  From this, we will not be changing distancing guidelines for the building during this conference and urge each member and family to prayerfully and carefully make their own decisions regarding the wearing of face masks. "

I don't like downvoting either.

I wasn't big on wiping down of the podium after each speaker.  To do sanitizing it needs to stay wet for about 10 minutes - which kind of makes one wonder about the point of cleaning wipes at any time as there is not enough liquid to keep them that wet for all the wipes till the end.

I hate the waste of cups putting each sacrament bread in each cup, but I have to say I have had a nosepicker (one who does it every week)  in every class or wolf den group I've taught since living here and it is nice to pick up a piece of bread knowing those children have not touched them. 

Fascinating! And (to me) encouraging . . .

I don't expect our stake to do anything, but then, it's the same stake president who didn't release and replace me as bishop until six months after I moved (with three months' advance notice that I was moving). Sending out an email would require writing an email (doing something). They're good men, but extremely slow to do anything or to act. I expect "business as usual" in our stake and its wards. Interesting to find your stake up in the Valley specifying "prayerfully and carefully mak[ing] their own decisions regarding the wearing of face masks." 

It's interesting to me that there were a spate of stake presidents and other prominent leaders with apparent advance notice of yesterday's brief letter (Wirthlin from Salt Lake, Eyring from BYUI, etc.). Our kids' stake president in Flagstaff also asked the college students in the student wards to mask up at church again two weeks ago, and the response last week was . . . no change in behavior. Our son and daughter said that it was business as usual the next week. 

I think in general that Church members are more ungovernable and unruly, which mirrors society at large from the top down (I'm thinking the Biden Administration extending evictions moratoriums, even though they fully expect it to be shot down by the Supreme Court. Schools/districts disobeying laws banning mandates. And many other examples). A bigger issue in my observation is active, attending members drinking coffee and tea products and insisting that there is nothing wrong with it and that it doesn't violate the Word of Wisdom (seminary students in particular have lots of Starbucks and Dutch Brother's iced coffee and tea drinks at seminary, and these are often otherwise active students). 

It appears to me that the Brethren choose to avoid showdowns with active members on issues that they may lose on, and masks at church and the temple appears to be one of those things. This remains true (for now), even with yesterday's letter.  Obviously the only negative enforcement "weapon" is removal of fellowship, but it's interesting to me that this state of things isn't even addressed or acknowledged (like it was after Utah cast the decisive vote ending Prohibition, which broke President Grant's heart). 

Interesting times, for sure, and they're only going to get more interesting. 

Edited August 13, 2021 by rongo

[bluebell]

2 minutes ago, Bane said:

If his counsel (which I followed) to fast and pray for the pandemic to abate didn't have any noticeable effect in causing it to do so, why would I now follow his counsel to wear a mask?

Because they are two different things.

His request to fast and pray was a request to ask God to intervene in the pandemic.  He doesn't control God's response to that request anymore than we control His response to our personal requests.  Sometimes, as anyone who has ever fasted and prayed for anything knows, the answer is "no" or "I'm helping but not in the way you think I should".

His request to wear masks and get vaccinated is a request to follow sound medical advice (and since he's a doctor, he's not out of his authority to speak on such things, even if he wasn't the prophet).