Covid cases, hospitalizations, death trends and other touchy subjects…

[pogi]

2 hours ago, juliann said:

Another scare porn reality check,

https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-updates-08-09-21/h_9c6a79bada1c3b54c7d873635394a789?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_topstories+(RSS%3A+CNN+-+Top+Stories)

 

This seems like a straw man.

"Severe" breakthrough cases are exceptionally rare.  I have never heard anyone claim otherwise.  The concern is that breakthrough cases in general are less rare with the Delta variant and can be transmitted via vaccinated people.  The concern is that children under 12 can't be vaccinated.  The concern is that a huge percentage of the population chooses not to be vaccinated - which has direct and indirect effects on all of us from health care costs and quality of care, to economic impacts, to disruptions in education and work, etc. etc.   It is getting so bad in some hospitals that they can't keep nurses and doctors from quitting due to the relentless stress and overbearing burden they cary day in and day out.  The impact of other's choices ripples across the population in devastating ways. 

No boogy man scare porn there.  Just the facts. 

[rodheadlee]

0

[rongo]

36 minutes ago, pogi said:

@rongo I know you mentioned previously that you don't think this year will be any worse than last year for schools in your district.   So far, it doesn't look so good for schools in Arizona however, according to this interesting article in Deseret news:

Despite the laws against mandates in your state, some school districts are taking a very bold move at risk of losing funding and lawsuits etc. to protect their children:

It looks like the same thing is happening in Florida school districts:

One governor, at least, is starting to see the light in regards to mask mandates:

That takes integrity to admit, and is extremely rare to see.  I applaud him. 

I have to chuckle at people applauding the renegade districts (all in Phoenix and Tucson) defying state law (passed bills signed into law, not executive order). If there were a state law requiring masks and vaccines, and districts defied that, the freak-out by these very same applauders would be epic.   We'll see what happens. I think, from a rule of law perspective, they don't have a leg to stand on, but who knows in today's climate? 

Our meet the teacher night (Warrior Day at our school was last Thursday, and we had **heavy** turnout. Throngs of parents and students from 2:00 to 7:00 (I've never had one last so long, but I can't imagine the traffic during a normal 2-3 hour night session), and many transfer students from other schools/districts. Our class sizes are way up (our first day of school was today), which is a good thing. We have a good climate, atmosphere, and culture at our school and in our school system --- our biggest concern is the influx of students from outside of this culture and climate, who will need to quickly conform to "the ALA way." I estimate that we have from 300-500 more students this year. 

What's interesting for the current discussion (are you sitting down?)  is that our school's neighborhood is smack dab in J.O. Combs district territory. The Combs district is having a massive Covid outbreak.

https://www.12news.com/article/news/local/combs-district-covid-cases-jump-by-28-in-a-day/75-bdad9ac9-f2c9-4516-971c-7eae96c28bfd

We will certainly absorb some Combs students, like we did last year, when they were shut down for most of the year.

I had larger classes of German students than ever before, and . . . only one absent student the entire day. 

I really and truly expect this year to be like last year --- no waves of sickness or absences. My lived experience in schools is that people see what they want and expect to see (on both sides), and for families who value normalcy (as much as possible), there are schools and places where they can find that with like-minded people. Those who want to see catastrophic outbreak that must keep things abnormal indefinitely can certainly find that, too. 

My two Italian exchange students last year (one had German and Russian, the other German and Mandarin in Italy) told us as they gave a presentation about their home (both were from the area of the worldwide media frenzy at the start of the whole thing in March 2020) that their friends back at home are all depressed with online school and restrictions, and they skype with them and they can't believe that they are over here, not wearing masks, playing sports, going to dances, playing in school sports, etc. They said the contrast between how happy they are and how miserable their friends are is sad. When the opportunity for the exchange came, their parents told them, "Take it!" (I had asked if their families were nervous about the worldwide Covid situation, or Arizona's then "status" as "#1 in the world for outbreak" back in November-December). But, Queen Creek/San Tan Valley is much more fiercely pro-normal than even Gilbert --- largely with LDS support, but a lot of non-LDS as well. 

I'm not surprised at all that Elder Rasband visited a packed Queen Creek seminary (parents and students) without a mask. That's the area our school is in. 

[Scott Lloyd]

2 hours ago, pogi said:

… if you are actively rebelling against the pleas of our church leaders in masking and vaccination, …

I’ve been vaccinated. 
 

And where I live, masking is not currently mandatory, and there are no “pleas of our church leaders,” as such, regarding it. For the time being at least, it is optional at Church services and in temples; most attendees are choosing to forego it, probably because they’ve been vaccinated. 

So I’m not “rebelling against the pleas of our Church leaders.” 

[Calm]

1 hour ago, rongo said:

If there were a state law requiring masks and vaccines, and districts defied that, the freak-out by these very same applauders would be epic.

Yeah, because they think vaccines are top priority and public safety protocols should be promoted in a pandemic by either the government or resisting the government if it neglects its duty.  It is consistent.

Edited August 10, 2021 by Calm

[Chum]

5 minutes ago, Calm said:

Yeah, because they think vaccines are top priority and public safety protocols should be promoted in a pandemic by either the government or resisting the government if it neglects its duty.  It is consistent.

This is true. Many important things are about the things themselves and not politics.

[Chum]

1 hour ago, Scott Lloyd said:

And where I live, masking is not currently mandatory, and there are no “pleas of our church leaders,” as such, regarding it.

I didn't realize conference was unable to reach where you are.

[Scott Lloyd]

1 hour ago, Chum said:

I didn't realize conference was unable to reach where you are.

Meaning what?

What I have described here — optional mask wearing unless and until directed otherwise by local leaders — is, from what I can tell, standard in wards, stakes and temples in the Salt Lake Valley just now. 

Are you saying that stake presidencies, bishoprics and temple presidencies throughout the valley are being mavericks or “actively rebelling against the pleas of our Church leaders”? 
 

Call for references. 

Edited August 10, 2021 by Scott Lloyd

[Calm]

10 hours ago, Scott Lloyd said:

So if somebody doesn’t use one of those precisely technical terms or genuflect to the WHO as the official designator, you get heartburn?

It is like someone refusing to use a simple chemical’s name, refusing to say carbon dioxide or write CO2 because they see using it as political since carbon dioxide gets mentioned by the World Meteorological Organization in speaking of human caused climate change. 
 

A coronavirus is a particular type of virus, named for its shape, the 19 comes from the year it was first discovered. CO for corona, VI for virus, D for disease, 19 for 2019….thus coronavirus disease 2019 or COVID 19.

https://mobile.twitter.com/DrTedros/status/1227297754499764230

https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/WHO-HSE-FOS-15.1

 It is basic technical naming convention anyone could use once familiar with it…a convention that is pretty simple and straightforward and informative while avoiding any potential baggage or bulkiness often associated by other naming conventions like applauding an inventor or causing confusion with location names (the Spanish flu did not start in Spain), just as when a new chemical is invented there is a standard way of referring to it.  It is much less confusing than using a location which could lead to different diseases with identical or close to identical names or might later be found to be inaccurate  or the discover’s name, which can be hard to remember (I think the alternate name for Restless Legs Syndrome is Willis-Ekrom Disease, but I would have to look it up to be sure, as I have done every single time I use that naming convention, very tiresome…and I was wrong as it was Willis-Ekbom Disease).  The definition of the virus is in the name itself, beautiful…just as elegant as everyone knowing what carbon dioxide is from its name. 
 

So no, no heartburn if you don’t “genuflect”, but you look a bit weird to be arguing against using it as if you are saying something noble or significant by refusing. 

Edited August 10, 2021 by Calm

[Calm]

https://www.eastidahonews.com/2021/08/byui-president-asks-students-to-spiritually-consider-getting-covid-19-vaccine/
 

Quote

The president of Brigham Young University-Idaho is asking students to personally and spiritually consider getting vaccinated before returning to campus for the Fall semester.

“Time is of the essence,” BYU-Idaho President Henry J. Eyring said in in a 7-minute video message recently posted on the university’s website.

“The most common vaccines require a three to four-week follow-up shot and now we are just six weeks from the beginning of the fall semester. For that reason, my invitation is for you to ponder, decide and perhaps act soon,” he said. 

The BYU-Idaho campus brings around 20,000 students every semester to Rexburg, making up a large portion of the community. Eyring said if the school had to reduce operations again and implement remote learning because of another COVID-19 outbreak, it could put a strain on the community. 

“An outbreak of the virus on our campus could significantly impact the surrounding area, including medical resources, particularly hospitals,” Eyring said. 

Eyring’s pre-semester message comes in contrast to other messages he’s published online. In previous videos Eyring has appeared in a less formal way, including swimming in his dress attire or dressing for a Safari through the campus greenhouse. This time Eyring stood at a podium dressed in a suit, taking off his mask as he approached the microphone. 

“Usually, I try to be funny in videos, as you know,” Eyring said. “At this time, though, we face serious medical threats and associated decisions.” 

During his request to have students look at vaccination, Eyring said around 50% of the BYU-Idaho student body already received COVID-19 vaccines.

 

[Tacenda]

Just saw this on my FB feed. A couple that my husband and I have known and hung out with for years, same one I mentioned is holding out for the vaccine's daughter posted. I wouldn't quite put the pandemic with all the ones listed. What do you say to someone that wrote this? Not my friend's daughter, but the author of this note if we were face to face? 

[Calm]

How many people actually thought like that?  Fear, after fear.  It is a strawman…and it makes no sense.  Who was killed by fearing most of those things?

And currently it is the ones who don’t fear Covid who are dying from it now.  The ones who were cautious and got the vaccine ain’t dying very much at all.

[Tacenda]

12 hours ago, Scott Lloyd said:

I’ve been vaccinated. 
 

And where I live, masking is not currently mandatory, and there are no “pleas of our church leaders,” as such, regarding it. For the time being at least, it is optional at Church services and in temples; most attendees are choosing to forego it, probably because they’ve been vaccinated. 

So I’m not “rebelling against the pleas of our Church leaders.” 

You live in Draper, that's why!!  

My sister in law is on the city council. And she said at a get together fairly recently that she refused to get the vaccine, and even missed out on a trip or something because she didn't want one. 

[Tacenda]

11 minutes ago, Calm said:

How many people actually thought like that?  Fear, after fear.  It is a strawman…and it makes no sense.  Who was killed by fearing most of those things?

And currently it is the ones who don’t fear Covid who are dying from it now.  The ones who were cautious and got the vaccine ain’t dying very much at all.

That's a perfect response that I'll pretend in my mind that I would say, ha ha!

[pogi]

13 hours ago, rongo said:

Our meet the teacher night (Warrior Day at our school was last Thursday, and we had **heavy** turnout. Throngs of parents and students from 2:00 to 7:00 (I've never had one last so long, but I can't imagine the traffic during a normal 2-3 hour night session), and many transfer students from other schools/districts. Our class sizes are way up (our first day of school was today), which is a good thing. We have a good climate, atmosphere, and culture at our school and in our school system --- our biggest concern is the influx of students from outside of this culture and climate, who will need to quickly conform to "the ALA way." I estimate that we have from 300-500 more students this year. 

What's interesting for the current discussion (are you sitting down?)  is that our school's neighborhood is smack dab in J.O. Combs district territory. The Combs district is having a massive Covid outbreak.

https://www.12news.com/article/news/local/combs-district-covid-cases-jump-by-28-in-a-day/75-bdad9ac9-f2c9-4516-971c-7eae96c28bfd

We will certainly absorb some Combs students, like we did last year, when they were shut down for most of the year.

I had larger classes of German students than ever before, and . . . only one absent student the entire day. 

If your point is that everyone should be wearing a mask due to the large groups in a high risk area...I agree.   Otherwise, I am not sure what your point is. 

13 hours ago, rongo said:

I really and truly expect this year to be like last year --- no waves of sickness or absences. My lived experience in schools is that people see what they want and expect to see (on both sides), and for families who value normalcy (as much as possible), there are schools and places where they can find that with like-minded people. Those who want to see catastrophic outbreak that must keep things abnormal indefinitely can certainly find that, too. 

This sounds like the law of attraction/magical thining.  Unfortunately, virus exposures, outbreaks, and isolation/quarantine are not determined by what we want/expect to see.  We can't just wish it away.  The Combs district, for example, is not having a "massive outbreak" simply because they wanted to see it, or because they don't "value normalcy".  If your point is that we can try to have a positive mental attitude during difficult times, I agree.  That is true in regards to finding purpose and happiness through relatively large outbreaks, or in finding purpose and happiness with a mask on.  I personally would prefer the second, but that is just me.   But we can't pretend that if we simply want it bad enough, the virus is going to spare us, despite our ignoring public health pleas to use preventative measures.

13 hours ago, rongo said:

I'm not surprised at all that Elder Rasband visited a packed Queen Creek seminary (parents and students) without a mask. That's the area our school is in. 

I'm not surprised either.  That was back in April when case rates were extremely low, Delta was still on the horizon, and the CDC said vaccinated people don't need to wear masks.   It would be a mistake to take that experience out of context and use Elder Rasband as an excuse not to wear a mask in our current situation.   

[Chum]

10 hours ago, Scott Lloyd said:

Meaning what?

Meaning that Doing All We Can is a plea from our Church leaders to everyone on Earth.

I assume you meant no local leaders are making pleas but they don't need to because the entire planet has been, unequivocally, directed to Do All We Can to Bring Covid Numbers Down In Our Area.

10 hours ago, Scott Lloyd said:

Are you saying that stake presidencies, bishoprics and temple presidencies throughout the valley are being mavericks or “actively rebelling against the pleas of our Church leaders”? 

In as far as a local leader is offering guidance that runs counter to Doing All We Can To Bring Covid Numbers Down In Our Area, that guidance appears to violate the spirit and word of the First Presidency.

I decline to use those lables tho. I'd rather label the labels as counterproductive.

[juliann]

15 hours ago, pogi said:

CFR about the WHO and 3 layers.  Did they say best practice is... or did the WHO say it is pointless to wear a mask if it is not 3 layered or a KN95?  CFR please.  I ask because it is important to know.

Too simplistic.  A 3 layered knitted cotton fabric mask is less effective than a single layered woven polyester/nylon mask.  Either way we are in the range of 28% to 80% efficacy with most masks I see worn on a daily basis - according to a recently published study (see recently posted study in other thread)

Most people are wearing nothing, so I would be thrilled if people just started wearing even  a single layer mask (which can be 37.8% effective).  It will help reduce transmission, so I will not stop telling people to simply wear a mask.  Thanks for the suggestion though.

If you can get a 3 layered woven polyester or a KN95, by all means wear it!  If not, don’t go maskless.

[juliann]

13 hours ago, pogi said:

This seems like a straw man.

"Severe" breakthrough cases are exceptionally rare.  I have never heard anyone claim otherwise.  The concern is that breakthrough cases in general are less rare with the Delta variant and can be transmitted via vaccinated people.  The concern is that children under 12 can't be vaccinated.  The concern is that a huge percentage of the population chooses not to be vaccinated - which has direct and indirect effects on all of us from health care costs and quality of care, to economic impacts, to disruptions in education and work, etc. etc.   It is getting so bad in some hospitals that they can't keep nurses and doctors from quitting due to the relentless stress and overbearing burden they cary day in and day out.  The impact of other's choices ripples across the population in devastating ways. 

No boogy man scare porn there.  Just the facts. 

My media feed (from all sides) is *filled* with breakthrough case scares without percentages for perspective. Nonstop. That is why this CNN article stood out. It is extremely naive to think that this does not create fear. It is the very definition of scare porn.  

[Chum]

52 minutes ago, Tacenda said:

I wouldn't quite put the pandemic with all the ones listed. What do you say to someone that wrote this? Not my friend's daughter, but the author of this note if we were face to face?

I'd say it took to 2020 but we finally aced our prediction finals.

[pogi]

38 minutes ago, juliann said:

Thanks.  Without being able to see the article this is attached to, I can't see where it says that we shouldn't wear a mask, or shouldn't recommend that people wear masks, if it is not a 3 layer mask made to these specifications.  This looks like a good guideline for best practice, not an all or nothing recommendation. 

[pogi]

45 minutes ago, juliann said:

My media feed (from all sides) is *filled* with breakthrough case scares without percentages for perspective. Nonstop. That is why this CNN article stood out. It is extremely naive to think that this does not create fear. It is the very definition of scare porn.  

I personally am not seeing "severe" breakthrough cases filling my media feed.   I am seeing severe unvaccinated hospitalizations/deaths/regret stories.  I am seeing increased numbers for general breakthrough cases being used to influence vaccinated people to wear masks to prevent community transmission further, but I am not seeing "severe" breakthrough cases being used disproportionately as scare porn.  The idea is to influence others to get vaccinated because it works, not to scare people away from vaccine and lead them to believe they don't work.  If you are seeing a lot of scare porn about severe breakthrough cases in vaccinated people, I am guessing it is coming from extreme right wing sources - not from public health agencies and other legitimate media and medical sources. 

Edited August 10, 2021 by pogi

[Rain]

1 hour ago, Tacenda said:

Just saw this on my FB feed. A couple that my husband and I have known and hung out with for years, same one I mentioned is holding out for the vaccine's daughter posted. I wouldn't quite put the pandemic with all the ones listed. What do you say to someone that wrote this? Not my friend's daughter, but the author of this note if we were face to face? 

I don't know that I would say it, but I always think "when ye are prepared ye need not fear."  

When y2k happened we had food storage etc and backed up our bank statements etc.  We were prepared and didn't fear.

When I make a salad I prepare by washing the lettuce so I don't need to fear.

With covid I prepare with masks and distancing when needed and vaccines.  

It really irritates me that so many describe people like me as being terrified.  I'm not.  I'm not living in fear.  I take precautions to prepare like God has told us we should.  

[Scott Lloyd]

1 hour ago, Chum said:

Meaning that Doing All We Can is a plea from our Church leaders to everyone on Earth.

I assume you meant no local leaders are making pleas but they don't need to because the entire planet has been, unequivocally, directed to Do All We Can to Bring Covid Numbers Down In Our Area.

In as far as a local leader is offering guidance that runs counter to Doing All We Can To Bring Covid Numbers Down In Our Area, that guidance appears to violate the spirit and word of the First Presidency.

I decline to use those lables tho. I'd rather label the labels as counterproductive.

Stake and ward leaders and temple presidencies in our area are scrupulously taking their direction from the First Presidency via the Area Presidency. You have no business, implicitly or otherwise, accusing them of ignoring direction from the First Presidency or of giving guidance that runs counter to it. 
 

And you have not answered the call for references that they are “actively rebelling against the pleas of our Church leaders.” You are required to provide references or withdraw the accusation. 
 

Regardless, though, I take my direction from general and local Church leaders, not you. If, at any time there should be direction come down through priesthood channels to the effect that it is again mandatory to wear masks at Church, I will resume doing so. 

Edited August 10, 2021 by Scott Lloyd

[Rain]

12 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said:

Stake and ward leaders and temple presidencies in our area are scrupulously taking their direction from the First Presidency via the Area Presidency. You have no business, implicitly or otherwise, accusing them of ignoring direction from the First Presidency or of giving guidance that runs counter to it. 
 

And you have not answered the call for references that they are “actively rebelling against the pleas of our Church leaders.” You are required to provide references or withdraw the accusation. 
 

Regardless, though, I take my direction from general and local Church leaders, not you. If, at any time there should be direction come down through priesthood channels to the effect that it is again mandatory to wear masks at Church, I will resume doing so. 

Real question - What if instead of being mandatory they asked us to please consider it for the health of those around you - would you resume wearing a mask again? 

I have wondered if leaders around the world clearly came out and asked us to wear them for the health of others rather than mandating them in some places if people would have been more likely to wear them. So many felt forced to for whatever reasons that I wondered if that if that made people run the other way.

I know some may point out a lot of times when people didn't wear a mask when not forced to, but the focus was usually more on not spreading the disease rather than caring for our fellow man - a subtle, but maybe important difference.

[rongo]

1 hour ago, pogi said:

This sounds like the law of attraction/magical thinking.  Unfortunately, virus exposures, outbreaks, and isolation/quarantine are not determined by what we want/expect to see.  We can't just wish it away.  The Combs district, for example, is not having a "massive outbreak" simply because they wanted to see it, or because they don't "value normalcy". 

That's not what I'm talking about. For example, last year, Combs stayed closed most of the year ("distance learning"). We were open the entire school year. We had similar "outbreak" numbers, but our perception of what that actually meant and our attitude/approach to those numbers were completely different (Combs teachers and admin were holding protests and press conferences pressuring their school board to stay closed). We had a normal school year, with kids who were sick at times, like always. No deaths or hospitalizations that we knew of (and believe me, we would have heard of it. The media was enraged at us and QCUSD for being open, and we were under a microscope. The media would have loved nothing more than to have been able to report death and epidemic among us). 

This school year will track the same way. Phoenix/Tucson districts will do everything they can to "learn remotely" and keep everyone masked. Our school year will come and go with good memories and accomplishments. And next year, the drum will be beaten for "mitigation efforts" against the looming Gamma Variant.