Covid cases, hospitalizations, death trends and other touchy subjects…

[Scott Lloyd]

2 hours ago, Peacefully said:

I usually stop listening if someone uses the term “China flu.” I’m pretty sure anything after that is going to have a certain slant. 

How about “CCP virus”?

[pogi]

22 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said:

How about “CCP virus”?

There is no such virus officially recognized by that name.  How is that any less slanted and political?

Edited August 9, 2021 by pogi

[Scott Lloyd]

2 minutes ago, pogi said:

There is no such virus officially recognized by that name.  How is that any less slanted and political?

What’s the officially recognized name?

[smac97]

29 minutes ago, Calm said:

Going from 1 in 26,000 to 1 in 22,000 in a week…you don’t see that as a rather important difference?

Not when the chances of dying in a car crash this year are 1 in 8,400.

And not when there is a 1 in 129,000 figure for vaccinated persons dying from COVID.

If we as individuals and as a society are not inclined to upend our lives by giving up automobiles despite a 1/8400th of a chance of dying in a car accident, I don't think we should once again wreck our economy and livelihoods by succumbing to fear over a 1/22000th of a chance of a vaccinated person getting seriously ill from COVID, and a 1/129000th of a chance of dying from it.

29 minutes ago, Calm said:

And at what point should one start caring it is happening to others?  1 in 10,000; one in 1,000?  This is not me being rhetorical or virtue signaling.  This is me being curious about how others see things.

It is, nevertheless, an unfair question, as it presumes that we don't care about others.

163 million people have been vaccinated.  Meanwhile, untold trillions of money has been lost.  Millions of jobs.  Millions more will be evicted or foreclosed on in the coming months.  And how many people have died because of delayed or cancelled health screenings / procedures / treatments?  Is if fair for me to ask you when you will "start caring" about these things?

I care about my fellow man.  A lot, actually.  It is for that reason that I am trying to look at hard data rather than emotionalisms, at reasoned analysis instead of fearmongering and politically-tainted reactions, at the practical realities of our reaction to COVID now that there is a vaccine and tens of millions have been vaccinated.

29 minutes ago, Calm said:

I am being casual about certain behaviours because of the low risk of serious infection (by which I mean life disrupting for more than a month) vs the cost of that behaviour (fist fight with my husband over whether he goes to his sister’s birthday party or not, for example)

I think people who decline to be vaccinated need to take such things much more into account.  Those who have received the vaccination, meanwhile, need to be able to get back to work without being hectored about it, or without being forced to lose even more money and livelihoods and businesses and careers because some of us - particularly those in positions of civil authority - are acting out of fear and panic instead of reasoning and evidence.

It is difficult to overstate the economic devastation that the lockdowns have had.  Lockdowns that were originally intended to be a few weeks long to bend the curve down.  

Thanks,

-Smac

[Calm]

2 minutes ago, smac97 said:

1 in 129,000

1 in 110,000  

[pogi]

22 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said:

What’s the officially recognized name?

You genuinely don't know?

Quote

The official names COVID-19 and SARS-CoV-2 were issued by the WHO on 11 February 2020.

SARS-CoV-2 is the virus, COVID-19 is the disease.  

Quote

CO' stands for 'corona,' 'VI' for 'virus,' and 'D' for disease. The virus that causes COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, is a coronavirus.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/your-health/about-covid-19/basics-covid-19.html

 

Edited August 9, 2021 by pogi

[Calm]

22 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said:

How about “CCP virus”?

I thought you didn’t like abbreviations?  

[Scott Lloyd]

7 minutes ago, Calm said:

I thought you didn’t like abbreviations?  

Touché. 
 

Chinese Communist Party virus. 
 

Added later: I’m actually more partial to “koof pandemic” or “wu-flu.”

 

Edited August 9, 2021 by Scott Lloyd

[Calm]

6 minutes ago, smac97 said:

If we as individuals and as a society are not inclined to upend our lives by giving up automobiles despite a 1/8400th of a chance of dying in a car accident, I don't think we should once again wreck our economy and livelihoods by succumbing to fear over a 1/22000th of a chance of a vaccinated person getting seriously ill from COVID, and a 1/129000th of a chance of dying from it.

We are willing to wear seatbelts for 1/8400, I was thinking in terms of mask mandates rather than lockdowns.

[Scott Lloyd]

5 minutes ago, pogi said:

You genuinely don't know?

SARS-CoV-2 is the virus, COVID-19 is the disease.  

 

So if somebody doesn’t use one of those precisely technical terms or genuflect to the WHO as the official designator, you get heartburn?

[juliann]

31 minutes ago, pogi said:

 

People kept acting as if we had reached the finish line and disregard the pleas from the medical community including the AMA, AHA, ANA, AAP, CDC, WHO, local health departments and state epidemiologists, etc., etc.,  scientific consensus, and inter-faith pleas to wear masks and use preventative measures.    If the Delta variant doesn't die back, or if strains remain as infectious as the Delta variant, the finish line would be global vaccination or natural infection of 90% or above.

    

Even WHO has a list of instructions which I bet not person follows when advocating for masks, one of which is a three layer mask. So it is high past time to advocate for "masks" as if that is meaningful. It is not. So it is not helpful. If you want protection, get KN95 masks and stop telling people to wear "a mask." Good grief.  

[mgy401]

21 minutes ago, smac97 said:

Not when the chances of dying in a car crash this year are 1 in 8,400.

And not when there is a 1 in 129,000 figure for vaccinated persons dying from COVID.

If we as individuals and as a society are not inclined to upend our lives by giving up automobiles despite a 1/8400th of a chance of dying in a car accident, I don't think we should once again wreck our economy and livelihoods by succumbing to fear over a 1/22000th of a chance of a vaccinated person getting seriously ill from COVID, and a 1/129000th of a chance of dying from it.

 

You’re asking the wrong question, @smac97; and about a decade too early.

The question isn’t “why do we wear masks to mitigate a 1/129,000 chance of death when we are willing to drive cars with a 1/8,400 risk of death?”.

The question will be “why do we let people drive cars with a 1/8,400 risk of death (and emitting greenhouse gasses to boot) when we were OK masking people and locking them in their own houses to mitigate a 1/129,000 risk of death?”.

The Overton window around the nexus of calculated risk and personal liberties, is shifting.

Edited August 9, 2021 by mgy401

[juliann]

Another scare porn reality check,

https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-updates-08-09-21/h_9c6a79bada1c3b54c7d873635394a789?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_topstories+(RSS%3A+CNN+-+Top+Stories)

Quote

More than 99.99% of people who are fully vaccinated against Covid-19 have not had a breakthrough case resulting in hospitalization or death, according to a CNN analysis of data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  

 

[pogi]

8 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said:

So if somebody doesn’t use one of those precisely technical terms or genuflect to the WHO as the official designator, you get heartburn?

Genuflect?  Heartburn?  You asked if it was any less slanted or political.  The answer is no.  Simple as that.  You asked what the officially recognized name is.  I gave the simple globally and scientifically recognized answer that everyone knows and uses.  I have never heard of the “CCP virus” until just now.  Upon googling the term I became aware of the political slant.  No genuflection.  Just the facts as globally recognized by all scientific organizations and communities.

When a virus is being named, we look to the scientific community.  When a political weapon is being named, we look to politicians.  See the difference? 

[Calm]

34 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said:

Added later: I’m actually more partial to “koof pandemic” or “wu-flu.”

Why am I not surprised.

Though maybe you are joking?  If you are, please tell me.

Edited August 9, 2021 by Calm

[Calm]

26 minutes ago, juliann said:

So it is high past time to advocate for "masks" as if that is meaningful

“To stop advocating for” I am guessing?

[pogi]

37 minutes ago, juliann said:

Even WHO has a list of instructions which I bet not person follows when advocating for masks, one of which is a three layer mask. So it is high past time to advocate for "masks" as if that is meaningful. It is not. So it is not helpful. If you want protection, get KN95 masks and stop telling people to wear "a mask." Good grief.  

CFR about the WHO and 3 layers.  Did they say best practice is... or did the WHO say it is pointless to wear a mask if it is not 3 layered or a KN95?  CFR please.  I ask because it is important to know.

Too simplistic.  A 3 layered knitted cotton fabric mask is less effective than a single layered woven polyester/nylon mask.  Either way we are in the range of 28% to 80% efficacy with most masks I see worn on a daily basis - according to a recently published study (see recently posted study in other thread)

Most people are wearing nothing, so I would be thrilled if people just started wearing even  a single layer mask (which can be 37.8% effective).  It will help reduce transmission, so I will not stop telling people to simply wear a mask.  Thanks for the suggestion though.

If you can get a 3 layered woven polyester or a KN95, by all means wear it!  If not, don’t go maskless.

Edited August 9, 2021 by pogi

[Scott Lloyd]

10 minutes ago, pogi said:

Genuflect?  Heartburn?  You asked if it was any less slanted or political.  The answer is no.  Simple as that.  You asked what the officially recognized name is.  I gave the simple globally and scientifically recognized answer that everyone knows and uses.  I have never heard of the “CCP virus” until just now.  Upon googling the term I became aware of the political slant.  No genuflection.  Just the facts as globally recognized by all scientific organizations and communities.

When a virus is being named, we look to the scientific community.  When a political weapon is being named, we look to politicians.  See the difference? 

Um, I never asked you if something “was any less slanted or political.” I think you have me confused with somebody else. Actually, I haven’t been following this thread that closely. 
 

But the WHO has become rather politicized in its own right. So if I succumb to compulsion or pressure to follow the lexical lead of an entity whose politics make me uncomfortable, isn’t that the very essence of political correctness?

 

[Calm]

44 minutes ago, juliann said:

Even WHO has a list of instructions which I bet not person follows when advocating for masks, one of which is a three layer mask. So it is high past time to advocate for "masks" as if that is meaningful. It is not. So it is not helpful. If you want protection, get KN95 masks and stop telling people to wear "a mask." Good grief.  

According to the EPA link, it looks like a woven nylon two layer mask with an aluminum nose bridge (easily fitted) can be over 70% effective, so maybe not just kn95 or higher making a big difference…but we need more data specific to Delta as to what can make a significant impact under what circumstances (work or church needs to be kn95, a short trip to the grocery store, a two layer woven nylon might be enough), so I would suggest erring on the side of caution and say “use kn95 masks if possible and only if these are unavailable to you, use these types cloth or disposable masks (list them with pictures like the study did) with these simple modifications (twisted and tucked minimum).  
 

added: also outdoor vs indoor…outdoor in a crowd, I am guessing you want droplet coverage as you can still get spittle from an enthusiastic talker who is nearby, but aerosols…guessing they would be diluted quickly enough since more affected by air currents.  Indoor, you need much more aerosol coverage as well as the droplet/spittle.  And Delta might make kn95 essential for indoor. 
 

Plus simplifying down to one or two mask choices at the high end of effectiveness would work better…but we need to take into account that many may not be able to get kn95 masks.

I completely agree we needed accurate, detailed, and practical, realistic instructions of what masks to wear and how.  I would, in fact, create a standard comment with info links to be put at top or bottom of articles like they do for suicide.

Edited August 9, 2021 by Calm

[Ipod Touch]

1 hour ago, Scott Lloyd said:

What’s the officially recognized name?

I think it is:

Novel Coronavirus COVID-19

[pogi]

37 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said:

Um, I never asked you if something “was any less slanted or political.” I think you have me confused with somebody else. Actually, I haven’t been following this thread that closely. 

It looks like you did to me:

4 hours ago, Peacefully said:

I usually stop listening if someone uses the term “China flu.” I’m pretty sure anything after that is going to have a certain slant. 

You responded to the statement that the term "China flu" has a certain slant (political slant is implied) with:

1 hour ago, Scott Lloyd said:

How about “CCP virus”?

What exactly did you mean if you were not asking if it was any less slanted or political?  Were you not wanting to know if Peacefully would stop listening to someone who uses that term?  Well, wouldn't that depend on if it was more slanted or not?  Is that not exactly what you were asking? 

Quote

But the WHO has become rather politicized in its own right. So if I succumb to compulsion or pressure to follow the lexical lead of an entity whose politics make me uncomfortable, isn’t that the very essence of political correctness?

Honestly, if you are not fully vaccinated and are not doing your best to follow all other preventative measures we hear everyday from local health departments and epidemiologists and the CDC, and/or if you are actively rebelling against the pleas of our church leaders in masking and vaccination, then trying to politically place the blame on another nation by calling it the CCP virus is ridiculous.  If that is the case, then there is no one but yourself and those that behave like you to blame for the continued unchecked spread of the virus.  We may not be able to eliminate the virus, but we can make a dent and reduce the spread by listening to our church, scientific, and medical leaders.   China can't stop this.  That is on us now. 

Edited August 10, 2021 by pogi

[Peacefully]

1 hour ago, Scott Lloyd said:

How about “CCP virus”?

Same thing, but I think you know that. 

[Peacefully]

4 hours ago, smac97 said:

 

Do we have evidence that a mask would reduce the risk of COVID from a vaccinated person (the one wearing the mask)?

-The CDC has said for months that masks prevent the spread of the virus.  Since vaccinated people can transmit the virus, the CDC is once again recommending masks even for those who are fully vaccinated. 

Short of vaccine passports, it will always be "hard to know."

You see vaccinated persons wearing OTC cloth masks as "being cautious?"

-I’m not sure what you are asking, but what is wrong with being cautious, especially around unvaccinated children?

What is the finish line, do you think?

-This is my opinion, but I think the finish line is when children and infants can be vaccinated, boosters are available for variants, and better treatments are available for breakthrough cases. 

 

 

Edited August 10, 2021 by Peacefully

[Calm]

21 minutes ago, Peacefully said:

This is my opinion, but I think the finish line is when children and infants can be vaccinated, boosters are available for variants, and better treatments are available for breakthrough cases. 

And worldwide vaccine coverage to slow down additional variants showing up.

Added: also for me, economic impact on lower income families that do not have a margin of safety would have to be minimal as well to be considered the finish line.  Not saying that I am not bothered by economic impact of Covid on middle class, though not so much wealthy as I doubt it would change quality of life much for most (though there may be some who lose it all), but it is the ripple effect I am thinking of.  Families with a safety margin won’t be sending out much of a ripple, a community of lower income collapsing could lead to many other struggling.

Edited August 10, 2021 by Calm

[pogi]

@rongo I know you mentioned previously that you don't think this year will be any worse than last year for schools in your district.   So far, it doesn't look so good for schools in Arizona however, according to this interesting article in Deseret news:

https://www.deseret.com/2021/8/8/22609797/the-political-battle-over-the-pandemic-has-come-to-the-classroom-republican-governor-ducey-cassidy

Quote

 

Schools have begun reopening in Arizona, where mask mandates have been banned since March...

“Arizona does not allow mask mandates, vaccine mandates, vaccine passports or discrimination in schools based on who is or isn’t vaccinated,” Ducey said in a statement. “We’ve passed all of this into law, and it will not change.”

Arizona’s Chandler Unified School District was among the earliest in the state to open, on July 21, and it announced over 140 cases in its first two weeks. The district does not require masking.

 

Despite the laws against mandates in your state, some school districts are taking a very bold move at risk of losing funding and lawsuits etc. to protect their children:

Quote

 

Other Arizona districts have bucked Ducey’s ban, though. So far, more than half a dozen districts, including Phoenix Union High School District and Tucson Unified School District, have announced they will require masks on their campuses. 

“Campus health and safety is our top priority,” the district said in a statement ahead of reopening. “To do so, we must — and will — implement mitigation strategies that minimize spread, reduce quarantining, avoid school closures, and enable us to provide mental health services and engaging opportunities such as clubs, sports, and the arts.”

 

It looks like the same thing is happening in Florida school districts:

Quote

 

The battle between school districts and state government is also taking place in Florida, where a handful of districts are defying an executive order banning mask mandates issued last week by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis. The order allows the state’s commissioner of education to withhold money from noncompliant schools, setting the stage for a showdown over public health and funding.

It comes as Florida faces a spike in infections that’s among the most severe in the country. On Monday, the Florida Hospital Association reported that hospitalizations in the state reached a record high, eclipsing hospitalization rates from last summer, before the vaccine was available.

 

One governor, at least, is starting to see the light in regards to mask mandates:

Quote

Unlike most of his fellow Republicans, Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson has changed direction when it comes to mask. He said during a press conference Tuesday that he now regrets the mask mandate ban he signed in April when cases were at a much lower point.

“Everything has changed now,” Hutchinson said. “In hindsight, I wish that had not become law.”

On Friday, an Arkansas judge temporarily blocked the law from being enforced.

That takes integrity to admit, and is extremely rare to see.  I applaud him. 

https://www.deseret.com/2021/8/8/22609797/the-political-battle-over-the-pandemic-has-come-to-the-classroom-republican-governor-ducey-cassidy