Jump to content

pogi

Contributor
  • Content Count

    8,822
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by pogi

  1. You can’t take it, but you sure are good at dishing it. Your insults seem to be interminable in every thread I have read you in.
  2. I think I understand where you guys are coming from and why these figures are misleading. Here is why these examples are a misrepresentation of the real world and can lead to unnecessary mistrust in testing and a false belief that numbers are artificially high: 1) As I have previously noted, we are not testing 100% of the population. We only test those who are symptomatic or who have had close contact with a positive person. This significantly reduces false positive results. 2) We don’t really know what the actual number of positive cases are in a population. 3) A fairly large percentage of positive cases never test. This also throws off your numbers. 4) You guys are not accounting for human error either. You are assuming that the tests are performed 100% perfectmy 100% of the time. The number one reason for false negative tests is misapplication and sampling errors where nurses simply are not going deep enough with the swab. This is partly why it is assumed that false negatives are far more likely then false positives, but also because specificity of PCR tests are extremely high. Positive tests are thought to be more reliable then negative tests.
  3. I'm still not following: The chance of a random person having a false positive test is not 14.9%. It can't be over 3% when the test is 97% accurate. A false negative is more likely than a false positive, actually, when only symptomatic people or close contacts are getting tested.
  4. Would you classify me as a doomsayer and a fear-monger? I personally view myself as a cautious optimist who puts evidence before wishful thinking and misinformation.
  5. I don't know what to make of this: It doesn't make sense that someone could be symptomatic and test positive (presence of virus is identified), and not be able to grow live virus from samples. I haven't read it yet. I'll have to look into it further.
  6. These reports suggest the opposite might be true. That would be the best news anybody could tell me if it ends up being true. This is all really just based on the hope that Covid will generate a healthy and enduring T-cell response. We simply don't know that yet. Relying on herd-immunity is really just wishful thinking at this point, and the down side is that it would require around 80% of the population to become infected before it could have any effect (without a vaccine). I have seen too many verifiable, documented, repeat infections to believe that my cases are extremely rare outliers. I acknowledge that my experience is very limited in the big picture, but until evidence suggests otherwise, I can't disbelieve what I have personally seen.
  7. Thanks Ahab! I am fairly confident that I (and my family) already had it in early April. I'm taking every precaution not to get it again though as, I have good reason to believe that immunity is short-lived.
  8. It's generally pretty easy to determine this. Epidemiological tracking of an outbreak event is largely based on symptom onset dates. A positive case is only considered associated with the event if symptom onset began within 2 weeks (incubation period) after the event. If a person was symptomatic before the event, then they are considered an index case, or source, for the outbreak. Asymptomatic cases are a little more tricky for obvious reasons, but are also much less common. We can't know for sure if they were or were not positive before an event, but the fact that they are associated with an outbreak and tested positive after attending the event, they are considered highly likely to have been infected at the event. There is no reason to conclude that the first test was false or incorrect. It could have just as easily been a false negative. Your relative could have been on the upswing or recovery of a previous infection and had very low viral load. Often times, people will test positive up to a month after infection as the test can pick up tiny viral fragment residue in the body. A person can test positive one day and negative the next. It is not a problem with the test. Or, it could have been a false positive. There is no way to know for sure without doing further testing, but it is not safe to just assume it was incorrect without testing further for antibodies etc. Your math lost me. A 97% accuracy rate means that "any random person testing" has a 97% chance that it is right and a 3% chance that it is wrong. How you go from 3% to 14.9% chance of being wrong or a 0.54% chance is beyond me. The other problem is that you are assuming that 100% of the population tests at any given moment. That is not how testing works. People don't test unless they have reason to - they are symptomatic, or have had close contact with a positive case.
  9. The only part that feels like a stretch to me is the Daniel 2 reasoning. Any time you have to count subdivided parts and count toes etc. to find the numbers you are looking for, because the numbers you are looking for are never actually mentioned in the passage, it is a good sign that you are experiencing apohpenia. If a number is significant to a passage, the passage will likely be direct with identifying the number without having to assume that the number "10" is significant because a passage mentioned "toes". The passage also mentioned "feet" , should we then assume that the number 2 is significant? I think if a number is significant to a passage, it would have mentioned 10 toes just as it mentioned 10 horns. If the 10 horns represent future kings, it is hard to believe that 10 toes are in any way related. I just don't see the 7 heads and 10 horns as being anyway related to 7 subdivided parts of 4 metals and toes, of which we assume there are 10. I think everything else looks pretty solid though, but you asked me to "tear you apart", so I did my best.
  10. Live forever? No, I just don’t like it when people write off anyone over 80 as highly likely to die within 1 year. What a pity to write off President Nelson at 80! I have already offered a couple possibilities, but it is anybodies guess at this point. One thing for absolutely certain however, is that it is not due to herd immunity. Yes really. If it is constantly mutating, then that is even more reason to dismiss the idea of herd immunity. No, antibodies do not equal immunity. Sorry, a “working immune system” doesn’t guarantee long-term immunity either. Strike 2. Your comment about herd immunity increasing in the population due to working immune systems is incoherent. With highly infectious diseases like Covid, herd immunity is not achieved until around 80% of the population is infected. With less contagious diseases, it starts to have effect around 50%. What was Sweden at with their antibodies? 6% to 7%? And this all only works IF the disease causes long-term immunity AND the virus is not mutating rapidly. Lots of studies are showing that this disease doesn’t provide lasting immunity unfortunately. Great. Let’s talk when the studies are complete. Why do you presume I didn’t read the article? I simply said that the fact that it is politicized is not justification for taking an unproven medicine. The fact that there are still studies proves my point. It is unproven. There are risks. Why are we still discussing this?
  11. Deaths are definitely up from late June early July, when people on here were celebrating the low death rate at 1-2/day on average despite the spike in positive cases. You can clearly see a delayed spike in deaths which corresponds with the spike in cases earlier. Why are positive cases low? Anybodies guess. My guess is that it is associated with the decrease in testing and not necessarily associate with fewer positive cases. Yes, I am referring to raw daily counts. I agree that these numbers are contingent (to an extent) upon how many people are tested, but they are the only actual accounting of confirmed cases that we have to go off of. These numbers are definitely helpful in the big picture. It is hard to tell from this graph. There is a better one here (sorry, can't seem to copy it. Click on the "Trends" tab and scroll down to the "Laboratory Testing Trends" graph and look at the orange line). It does appear that there is a very subtle downward trend. It looks more like a plateau from the earlier spike than an appreciable downward trend to me. But fingers are crossed that it continues to go down for some inexplicable reason. Of course, there will be a huge spike here shortly when school starts. It's gonna get ugly, I think.
  12. Deaths up. Positive cases down. We have been seeing the delayed deaths from the lase spike I promised would come. At the time, our positive case numbers were high, but deaths were low. People were saying that it is becoming less deadly. I said "wait". Now we are seeing the opposite - positive cases are low and deaths are high. These numbers are not likely indicative of actual cases, but are likely a reflection of low testing rates. Positive percentage rates and community spread are too high for these low of numbers.
  13. I have no idea. I haven't looked into Sweden much at all. It could very well be the same thing that is thought to be flattening Utah's curve - people are fatigued and are simply testing less. Household contacts of positive cases who are symptomatic just assume they are infected and don't bother testing. Other's simply don't want to know so don't test. I don't have time to look into it further, but if I had to guess, they are probably testing less. There is no way this is due to "herd immunity" though. Another potential explanation is that people are simply getting better at practicing preventive measures. I somehow doubt that however.
  14. We don't know that yet. There are a couple preliminary studies which suggest it might be. There are lots of others (which they don't address here) which suggest it might not be. Even they acknowledge that we don't have enough data yet to come to a conclusion. This Dr. suggests at 2:08 that the reports of "danger to the heart" are based on "misinterpretation of data" or on "faulty data". This drug has been around forever. We have known about the cardio-risks for a very long time. I have been screening my travel patients for QT-prolongation risk when prescribing Chloroquine, before Covid was even a thing. I am shocked that he would say such a thing. Is this the friend of the witch doctor from the other videos? Is this her attempt at a response to the back-lash?
  15. There has been no change in reporting that I am aware of. Positive cases are dropping significantly in Utah, but percentage of positive cases remains high. The other number that is dropping is overall testing. People are simply testing less so the numbers are not necessarily indicative of fewer actual cases of Covid in Utah. You are correct in that cases are less concentrated now, and community spread is still very high. I would suggest that "they" are wrong in suggesting that "the percentage of non tested Covid cases is consistent over time. I think there is good reason to believe that the percentage of non tested positive cases is increasing drastically. It is thought that people are just getting fatigued and they either just assume they have Covid or don't want to know, so don't test.
  16. Should we limit Joseph's potential exposure of EmodE to the Bible? Joseph was "fond of quoting the Founding Fathers... ( https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/03/30/how-joseph-smith-and-the-early-mormons-challenged-american-democracy )" Did not they speak in Early Modern English? Is it completely unreasonable to assume that he learned some of these phrases and styling from other sources? Another difficulty I find with this whole theory is that if this language truly was not Joseph's but was inspired by God...why? The language in the BoM is not pure Early Modern English. There are mistakes left and right. Would it be improper to call it entirely eclectic in language? Why would God be so careful and consistent with only some Early Modern English, while completely missing the boat elsewhere? It doesn't make much sense to me. It reads like a fallible and inconsistent human wrote it in hodge-podge English. I am of the position that it is Joseph's language used to interpret the Spirit.
  17. There is healthy/helpful provocation (one which stimulates thought, discussion, and ideally the Spirit), and there is unhealthy/hurtful provocation (one which agitates against the spirit through insult and arousal of anger, etc. in a battle of pride). I would not call the first foolish.
  18. It's true, if you are not a fireman or a cop, then you are either a drug Lord, a pedophile, or a zoobie. No bueno.
  19. Whatever you want to call it (it is ad hominem), you are engaging in the same type of fallacious argument by attacking the source rather than the substance of their argument.
  20. If you are asking how many of my personal patients died after a repeat infection, the answer is zero. I couldn't tell you how many have chronic complications like heart arrhythmia, permanent lung damage with shortness of breath, chronic fatigue, etc. from it though. I don't track that information. It would be interesting to see those numbers if we had them.
  21. ...and infect rural America so that we can close down all schools. These high percentages are not limited to urban areas any more. Large parts of rural America are seeing high positive percentage test rates.
  22. I didn't actually diagnose her. She reported to me that she went to the ER yesterday due to "heart problems" she described it as feeling like her heart kept skipping a beat. When she said that, I initially thought heart palpitations - no big deal. However, she stated that the EKG showed a "heart arrhythmia". She didn't specify what kind of arrhythmia, but based on her description and condition I am assuming it could only be A-fib. She is currently on a heart monitor for a week and has an appointment with a cardiologist after that. So, this is all preliminary, but if it truly is A-fib, then there is a good chance they will put her on blood thinners, as A-fib increases the risk of clotting and strokes.
  23. I agree it should be by county. These numbers suggest that most of the population should remain closed, according to these guidelines.
×
×
  • Create New...