Covid cases, hospitalizations, death trends and other touchy subjects…

[Calm]

11 minutes ago, Ipod Touch said:

I mentioned this elsewhere but this is one reason the messaging around masks and the vaccine have been so bad.  Especially in the age of the Internet, you can't have pictures of politicians and other elites going around showing that they aren't following their own orders.  

Are they banning unmasked outdoor activities for the vaccinated?  Serious question. I am not paying close attention to mandates in other places.  I know there was some stupid enforcement in a few places on gathering in parking lots with no physical contact early on, but haven’t heard anything lately like that. 
 

Quote

this is one reason the messaging around masks and the vaccine have been so bad. 

You aren’t getting any disagreement from me on the above quote.  I am particularly unhappy that I don’t hear more positive about outdoor activities as outdoor exercise and fun could be very helpful with the depression and anxieties arising from social isolation and general stress the pandemic is causing. 

Edited August 8, 2021 by Calm

[The Nehor]

1 hour ago, Calm said:

I would have thought the eviction moratorium would apply to property owners defaulting as well. It is just logical if rent is not coming in, they would often not be able to pay on mortgages. Am I wrong?

There is some form of moratorium on that as well and there was another program attached that I think gave some money. I could be misremembering though. I haven’t looked at it in a long time.

[rodheadlee]

5 minutes ago, The Nehor said:

There is some form of moratorium on that as well and there was another program attached that I think gave some money. I could be misremembering though. I haven’t looked at it in a long time.

50 billion was set aside in the last covid-19 bill for renters. Only 2 billion has made it to the people. The rest is hung up in the local state,  county and city governments. Every body has to get their piece first.

[strappinglad]

2 hours ago, Calm said:

 Am I wrong?

Landlords have little if any protection from lenders .Many can lose the properties for non payment of mortgage. Not all landlords are billionaires. Many only have a couple of buildings as an income stream. 

[Calm]

35 minutes ago, strappinglad said:

Landlords have little if any protection from lenders .Many can lose the properties for non payment of mortgage. Not all landlords are billionaires. Many only have a couple of buildings as an income stream. 

Many have less.
 

I would like to see a reference that landlords are not protected in cases where they are only currently barred from evicting people and therefore at risk.  I would find that very stupid of the government, which doesn’t mean I don’t think it is possible. 
 

I know of several who pay off their mortgage by renting out half the house, including a relative. Only way to buy their own home for some, so well aware how easy it would be for them to lose property if not also protected. 

Edited August 9, 2021 by Calm

[gurn]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/time.com/5846383/coronavirus-small-landlords/%3famp=true

 

I just skimmed some of this article, but it seemed to address the issue and the problem for landlords.

[The Nehor]

Here we go….

Healthcare workers are handling about twice as many cases as they have staff for and it is going to get worse.

I want to believe we are near the peak but who knows?

Really? Fiddling? No one stepped up and told him that this is a little too on the nose here.

 

At least we are not Florida.

I am really beginning to suspect Delta may be more dangerous to the young than previous variants. I still can’t find hard data.

Fun Fact: Most of Florida’s school districts start school on Tuesday or Wednesday and the rest start the week after.

 Louisiana is worst of all. If Louisiana were its own country it would be #2 in per capita cases in the world.

That is a little misleading. It means 50% of children in hospitals are ending up in the ICU, not 50% of all cases.

Louisiana, Texas, and Florida have seen vaccination numbers increase but it takes time for vaccination to matter.

Louisiana has reinstated its mask mandate. All three have school starting.

Hopefully we are at or near the peak but even if it starts to subside cases will still shoot up in total even as the new case numbers fall and all three states don’t have much give in their hospitals. Staff are still quitting. I expect the death percentage will rise.

Edited August 9, 2021 by The Nehor

[Calm]

So what did the alert accomplish?  
 

In Utah, it was used to announce suspension of gatherings, etc. It happened right as we were walking into my mother’s memorial. My husband let me believe it was an amber alert, he probably was worried I would use it as an excuse to skip the family get together.  Would have if it had happened as we were leaving home. Would have been very tempting if I had known, but probably would have risked it so as not to freak my sister.  She needed it. As it was, no one got sick…that time. 

Edited August 9, 2021 by Calm

[MustardSeed]

Skipping to the end to state my thoughts so as not to be intimidated into not commenting. 
 

I really wish everyone would just cooperate so we could have our best shot at a normal life.  Our kids have no chance.  And we’re now hearing rumors of limiting school again.  If I were pre- kid is seriously consider not having them because I was not cut out for school at home.  
I will be happy though to return to home church and sweatpants. 
 

 

[Chaos]

Posters who engaged in politics or random downvoting have been thread banned. 

[Calm]

7 hours ago, The Nehor said:

 

 

Got to say it doesn’t look as cute as it once did.

[BlueDreams]

9 hours ago, The Nehor said:

Hopefully we are at or near the peak but even if it starts to subside cases will still shoot up in total even as the new case numbers fall and all three states don’t have much give in their hospitals. Staff are still quitting. I expect the death percentage will rise.

For cases, from estimates I’m seeing, we may be at or near the peak. Which mean hospitalizations and deaths would peak around late august early September. But I’m not sure how these estimates are made. 
I’m not sure how they make these estimates though. And if they take in consideration the differences with delta (or if they fully can) 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texas?view=infections-testing&tab=trend&test=infections

[juliann]

When we step away from screaming scare porn media headlines and "Dr. So and So" said, here is reality:

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_3.html?fbclid=IwAR11CVYVMHhzx4zDUwtAhWm4_EddZ5-AOkEMASqCOBo1N1FOLM03QmSiXYo

 

[smac97]

8 minutes ago, juliann said:

When we step away from screaming scare porn media headlines and "Dr. So and So" said, here is reality:

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_3.html?fbclid=IwAR11CVYVMHhzx4zDUwtAhWm4_EddZ5-AOkEMASqCOBo1N1FOLM03QmSiXYo

 

I also saw this:

Quote

Look at these numbers…

More than 163 million Americans are fully vaccinated.

Of those 163 million, only 6,239 have been hospitalized with the China Flu.

Of those 163 million who are vaccinated, only 1,263 have died.

Of the vaccinated who have been seriously ill or died, 74 percent are over 65.

This means…

Among the vaccinated, only 1 out of 26,125 have gotten seriously ill.

Among the vaccinated, only 1 in 129,000 have died.

Do you have any idea how small those numbers are? Imagine how small they are for those under 65.

I should add that those numbers are coming straight from the very same CDC that wants to shove the vaccinated back into those filthy masks.

Well, that ain’t happening — not to me or mine.

For context, as far as living with risk, your chances of dying in a car accident this year are 1 in 8400.

Your odds of dying crossing the street this year are 1 in 43,000.

For me and mine, it’s over. The virus is over. The pandemic is over.

Thoughts?

Thanks,

-Smac

[Peacefully]

2 minutes ago, smac97 said:

I also saw this:

Thoughts?

Thanks,

-Smac

I usually stop listening if someone uses the term “China flu.” I’m pretty sure anything after that is going to have a certain slant. 

[smac97]

1 minute ago, Peacefully said:

I usually stop listening if someone uses the term “China flu.” I’m pretty sure anything after that is going to have a certain slant. 

Yeah, I don't like the partisan/inflammatory stuff either.  But if the numbers he is citing are correct...

Thanks,

-Smac

Edited August 9, 2021 by smac97

[Peacefully]

4 minutes ago, smac97 said:

Yeah, I don't like the partisan/inflammatory stuff either.  But if the numbers he is citing are correct...

Thanks,

-Smac

The person sounds pretty angry about masks. Unfortunately, young children and babies can’t get a vaccine, yet, and there are some concerning incidents of kids getting very sick. My daughter has a 20 month old and a baby due in September. She is very concerned for them and has gone back to masking and limiting their exposure to people, since it is hard to know who is vaccinated and who isn’t. I have a business trip this month and out of an abundance of caution I’ve ordered n95 masks to wear on the plane and when I am at meetings in Colorado. I will probably go to a CVS and get tested when I get back. I just don’t see any problem with being cautious at this point. We haven’t reached the finish line with Covid, imho. 

[smac97]

1 minute ago, Peacefully said:

The person sounds pretty angry about masks.

Yes.  

1 minute ago, Peacefully said:

Unfortunately, young children and babies can’t get a vaccine, yet, and there are some concerning incidents of kids getting very sick.

Do we have evidence that a mask would reduce the risk of COVID from a vaccinated person (the one wearing the mask)?

1 minute ago, Peacefully said:

My daughter has a 20 month old and a baby due in September. She is very concerned for them and has gone back to masking and limiting their exposure to people, since it is hard to know who is vaccinated and who isn’t.

Short of vaccine passports, it will always be "hard to know."

1 minute ago, Peacefully said:

I have a business trip this month and out of an abundance of caution I’ve ordered n95 masks to wear on the plane and when I am at meetings in Colorado. I will probably go to a CVS and get tested when I get back. I just don’t see any problem with being cautious at this point.

You see vaccinated persons wearing OTC cloth masks as "being cautious?"

1 minute ago, Peacefully said:

We haven’t reached the finish line with Covid, imho. 

What is the finish line, do you think?

Thanks,

-Smac

[Peacefully]

7 minutes ago, smac97 said:

Yes.  

Do we have evidence that a mask would reduce the risk of COVID from a vaccinated person (the one wearing the mask)?

Short of vaccine passports, it will always be "hard to know."

You see vaccinated persons wearing OTC cloth masks as "being cautious?"

What is the finish line, do you think?

Thanks,

-Smac

Good questions. I am at work now, but I will give this some thought and get back with you. 

[Calm]

2 hours ago, smac97 said:

Yeah, I don't like the partisan/inflammatory stuff either.  But if the numbers he is citing are correct...

Thanks,

-Smac

Why not just use the source he sources without the baggage?

He is out of date too.  Today’s reads:

Quote

During the same time, CDC received reports from 49 U.S. states and territories of 7,525 patients with COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infection who were hospitalized or died.

Quote

Fully Vaccinated

Total

166,654,374

That makes 1 in 22,147 as today’s rate vs 1 out of 26,125 (he uses seriously ill for hospitalizations and deaths, I would disagree with that assumptions, one can be seriously ill without being hospitalized…another problem with his slant IMO, being dismissive of the no hospitalizations group’s experiences).

That is actually quite a drop given the shorter time period…though not suggesting panic mode, I just find it interesting and indicative of the more serious nature of Delta.

added:  cannot believe the errors I am making today, my apologies if it leaves anyone confused. 
 

another add:  death rate has dropped as well some from 1 in 129,000 to 1 in 110,000

Edited August 9, 2021 by Calm

[smac97]

6 minutes ago, Calm said:

Why not just use the source he sources without the baggage?

Because the baggage seemed fairly minimal.  And because he summarized the source and I did not feel inclined in the moment to replicate that.

6 minutes ago, Calm said:

He is out of date too.  Today’s reads:

He's out of date by a week or so, I think.

Thanks,

-Smac

[Calm]

Quote

For me and mine, it’s over. The virus is over. The pandemic is over.

Given the number of people dying around the world because of lack of vaccinations, his position is remarkably short sighted IMO.  At the very least he will be affected economically for years by the pandemic.

Acting as if the pandemic no longer is relevant to his life is not minimal baggage.  

Edited August 9, 2021 by Calm

[Calm]

20 minutes ago, smac97 said:

He's out of date by a week or so, I think.

Going from 1 in 26,000 to 1 in 22,000 in a week…you don’t see that as a rather important difference?

And at what point should one start caring it is happening to others? 1 in 10,000; one in 1,000?  This is not me being rhetorical or virtue signaling. This is me being curious about how others see things.  I am being casual about certain behaviours because of the low risk of serious infection (by which I mean life disrupting for more than a month) vs the cost of that behaviour (fist fight with my husband over whether he goes to his sister’s birthday party or not, for example)

Edited August 9, 2021 by Calm

[Calm]

Would he be willing to wear a decent mask indoors if it gets down to one in 8,300, I wonder?  I assume he wears seatbelts when driving. Serious question, I would love to ask him what numbers, if any, would make the pandemic relevant in his life. 

Edited August 9, 2021 by Calm

[pogi]

4 hours ago, smac97 said:

Do we have evidence that a mask would reduce the risk of COVID from a vaccinated person (the one wearing the mask)?

I hope Peacefully doesn't mind me trying to answer some of these questions. 

Masks reduce risk of Covid from both vaccinated and unvaccinated.  They don't discriminate   It is the same virus in both groups, so we wouldn't expect different results in (or from) one vs the other. 

4 hours ago, smac97 said:

Short of vaccine passports, it will always be "hard to know."

True. Considering that both vaccinated and unvaccinated people can transmit the virus, vaccination status is actually pretty irrelevant in terms of public transmission and thus preventive measures when it comes to the Delta variant, to be honest. 

4 hours ago, smac97 said:

You see vaccinated persons wearing OTC cloth masks as "being cautious?"

Absolutely.  Any active measure to reduce risk of transmission or infection in the community is using caution.  I will slather praise on anyone willing to make the sacrifice of wearing a mask for the good of the community.  Our church leaders would add that it is more than just being cautions but "as it relates to the pandemic" is a fulfilment of the second great commandment (I assume that included cloth masks).  They talk about other preventative measures as a "civic duty".  I think the same applies with masks. 

This study shows that cloth masks can be fairly effective.  Some more than others.  There are simple modifications we can use with out masks to make them even more effective as indicated in this study (with helpful pics included)

https://www.epa.gov/sciencematters/epa-researchers-test-effectiveness-face-masks-disinfection-methods-against-covid-19

4 hours ago, smac97 said:

What is the finish line, do you think?

It's impossible to say.  Just a few months back, with the advent of vaccines and case rates plummeting across the US, many thought that the end game was already at hand.  As a result of vaccine efficacy, use of preventive measures all but vanished from church and the community (despite vaccination status).  Then the game changed with Delta, but unfortunately the people did not. 

Quote

For me and mine, it’s over. The virus is over. The pandemic is over.

People kept acting as if we had reached the finish line and disregard the pleas from the medical community including the AMA, AHA, ANA, AAP, CDC, WHO, local health departments and state epidemiologists, etc., etc.,  scientific consensus, and inter-faith pleas to wear masks and use preventative measures.    If the Delta variant doesn't die back, or if strains remain as infectious as the Delta variant, the finish line would be global vaccination or natural infection of 90% or above.

However, we are starting to see new potential game changer variants of concern on the horizon that might be resistant to vaccines, like the lambda variant.  

https://www.infectioncontroltoday.com/view/lambda-variant-of-covid-19-might-be-resistant-to-vaccines

So, it is impossible to predict what future variants might have in store for us, or what the end game might look like, but the prospect can be a little unnerving if one dwells on the "what if's?" too much.  Best practice is to not freak out, but to simply use preventative measures...now, to avoid the "what if?" scenarios later.  We shouldn't wait for the next game changer before we act.    

 

 

 

 

Edited August 10, 2021 by pogi