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strappinglad

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About strappinglad

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    Makes ice flow from the North

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  1. True, but plagues and war and famine do not separate the righteous from the wicked here on the earth. I think a lot of good people get swept up too. I find it interesting that Nephi speaks of the wicked as belonging to a CHURCH . Why that designation instead of a nation or whatever?
  2. I quoted you before and here is the context. Seems to me you are warning the opening of schools will have a serious effect on covid spread,no? You say that "despite all precautions " there will be community spread.
  3. So, no matter what we do , covid (nature) will find a way. All the precautions are wishful thinking. In essence we are straightening deck chairs on the Titanic. But , in the meantime , let's shut down the schools and the economy just in case it will make a slight difference in the timeline of the inevitable.
  4. It is true that we do not test 100% of the population for covid, but we don't do it for cancer either. After years of studies we can be reasonably sure about the prevalence of a particular cancer in the population. A lot of statistical analysis is done by samples usually of a few thousand examples and then we extrapolate to the population. As said , we don't know the prevalence of covid in the population and the data changes based on country or state etc., but the numbers are quite high worldwide now so the actual prevalence number is being closed in on. We may not know for months if not years. My example of 15% was a guess but based on other guesses by other guesstimaters.😎
  5. Perhaps I can clarify. A test that is 100% accurate would mean there would NEVER be false positives or false negatives. Because of manufacturing errors or human errors and maybe bad luck , there are a small %age of mistakes. A test that is 97% accurate means that 97% of the time what the test shows is what is true. So we pick a person at random . The law of large numbers says that 15% ( for the sake of argument) of the general population will have covid. So the random person has a 15% chance of having covid regardless. Now we test them and the test is 97% accurate. OK we follow the math as I showed.
  6. We often see stories about a large group of people going to a party and after being tested many positive tests showing up. My question is , do we know how many were positive before the party? There are probably ethical and legal hurdles , but are there any studies that took 50+ random volunteers and tested them , but not releasing the results, then having the people mix at a party and retesting to see how the transmission went? Also, I am concerned about false positives and false negatives . A relative went to a party in a neighboring province and tested positive upon her return. A few days later she tested negative and it was assumed the first test was incorrect. How often does this happen? Let's assume that 15% of the population will get Covid so out of 100,000 people 15,000 will get Covid now we do the test and assume it is 97% accurate those who have covid -15000 those who don't have covid - 85000 test positive - 14550 test negative - 450 test positive - 2550 test negative - 82450 What is the chance that a random person tests positive but doesn't have the disease ? 2550/17100 = 14.9% what is the chance that a person tests negative but actually has the disease ? 450/ 82900 = 0.54 % So, if you test negative you can be pretty sure you don't have covid, but if you test positive , you should probably get a second test a bit later.
  7. I notice they use the third person singular to differentiate the tense. I was using the first person singular ie. I put the book down .Is that present or past tense? or both? He puts the book down ( present) vs He put the book down ( past ) English is so weird. ( then there is that i before e rule that has more exceptions than one can shake a stick at. )
  8. In reading another thread ,it struck me about the word " put " . I noticed that the verb ' put ' is the same in present and past tense , either that or I don't know the present tense of the verb. Any other examples you folks can think of? Sorry, but tangents are a thing in my life.
  9. Question to those who know. Do they redo the carpets after all the open house traffic has been through or are carpet protectors used?
  10. Politics, PR, maintaining good relations with those who sign the building permits. As you are aware, the Church has to jump through a lot of hoops to build a temple.
  11. To be realistic , let's do a little math. Given a population growth of 1.5% over 1000 years , both the Jaredites and the Lehites each could have developed populations of 100 million . Also , given human desire to explore or leave crowded places , that means that where ever they started out, they would have expanded possibly all over North and South America. This doesn't count any "others" who traveled by boat or walked to the continents.
  12. Read it again Duncan. It is specifically to Church Leaders, that THEY should get legal advice from the church before THEY stick their nose into a dispute between members. " but the bishop said I was right" has the potential of involving the Church , No?
  13. Guidelines: wash your hands for 20 seconds Random Human( RH ) : will 15 seconds do? Guidelines: wear a mask RH: How about just over my mouth Guidelines: maintain 6 ft. distancing RH : I think 4 ft is fine The virus is like the Japan tsunami and the people are lined up on the coast holding signs saying STOP . I went to the ER a couple of days ago. There was a nurse there at the door taking temps and handing out masks and asking the usual questions. I sat down alone in the waiting area and observed the nurse. As she sat and visited she pushed and pulled on her mask and at times put her fingers under the mask. We think kids are going to mask up properly when trained adults have a hard time .
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