Covid cases, hospitalizations, death trends and other touchy subjects…

[Canadiandude]

While some Canadian provinces have their own problems of re-opening too soon or not quite getting past the 60% fully vaxxed rate, many of church members here have more of a ‘Red Tory’ touch when it comes to collective security, and view vaccinations more apolitically.

As far as I know nobody’s started sprouting horns or anything but I sometimes wonder about dem Leafs fans…

🙃

[ttribe]

23 minutes ago, Calm said:

I am just saying the US is less than 5% of the world’s population. In many ways we have massive control over what happens in the rest of the world compared to that 5%.   Virus mutations are not one of them.  Outside of providing other countries with vaccines, I don’t see how we can control virus mutations occuring in the rest of the world. This is a pandemic, not an American epidemic.  We are also not an island or a small country with easily controlled borders.  If a variant pops up elsewhere, eventually it will be seen arriving in the US…and which point we can do something about it.  I don’t think it is wise to focus too much on preventing variants by vaccination as a major driver as that could backfire when variants show up later.

We see a similar issue in countries that have managed in the past to drop rates to zero.  That does not mean they can go back to normal because the rest of the world is still incubating the disease like some people are acting like this was to be expected.
  That lockdowns would somehow be ‘one and done’ for any country.

But acting as if their lockdowns and restrictions are therefore meaningless in the long run because they are still having to deal with Covid popping up in their countries is a reasoning process that leaves me dumbfounded…as if all the lives and disruptions saved count for nothing.

Do you perceive me as doing that?  Because I'm really not.  My commentary isn't aimed at those other countries/people because they aren't my neighbors and friends.  Everyone has to do their part, no matter their locale, but we need to do better and that means all of us.  Right now.

[Calm]

7 minutes ago, ttribe said:

Do you perceive me as doing that?  Because I'm really not.  My commentary isn't aimed at those other countries/people because they aren't my neighbors and friends.  Everyone has to do their part, no matter their locale, but we need to do better and that means all of us.  Right now.

A bit, might not be intended to come out that way, of course.  I just see too much of a likelihood of misuse of data…not by you, but others…saying we were told there would be no more variants if we were all vaccinated!  They lied!  And then dismissing efforts as not accomplishing anything because it didn’t accomplish this.
 

On this thread, I see Rongo getting close to that with the two years instead on one comments and the lockdowns having to continue in Australia and New Zealand.  I don’t really expect the US ever to reach a high enough vaccination rate to lower the variant mutation rate significantly more than now, I am just highly pessimistic any pushes for vaccinations using that as part of their reasoning will be used to ‘prove’ government and medical experts are lying again.

Edited August 14, 2021 by Calm

[ttribe]

1 minute ago, Calm said:

A bit.  I just see too much of a likelihood of misuse of data…not by you, but others…saying we were told there would be no more variants if we were all vaccinated!  They lied!  And then dismissing efforts as not accomplishing anything because it didn’t accomplish this.
 

On this thread, I see Rongo getting close to that with the two years instead on one comments and the lockdowns having to continue in Australia and New Zealand.  I don’t really expect the US ever to reach a high enough vaccination rate to lower the variant mutation rate significantly more than now, I am just highly pessimistic any pushes for vaccinations using that as part of their reasoning will be used to ‘prove’ government and medical experts are lying again.

Whoa, let's be clear here - I'm grateful for every bit of progress that's been made in the fight against this pandemic.  Every.  Little.  Bit.  I am, however, quite upset with people who are holding us back from MORE progress by being selfish.  Straight-up, that's my criticism.  All three of my kids are immuno-compromised; every unvaccinated person in my community is an opportunity for the virus to harm one or all of them.  This hits very close to home for me.

I can assure you, rongo and I are on the opposite sides of virtually every single discussion on this board. 😆

[Calm]

2 hours ago, rongo said:

We had a thread in the spring about BYU's liberalization (most here applauded it;

Interesting that was your read…I saw it as more balanced, but more on the off centered to the conservative.

Edited August 14, 2021 by Calm

[Calm]

36 minutes ago, ttribe said:

Whoa, let's be clear here - I'm grateful for every bit of progress that's been made in the fight against this pandemic.  Every.  Little.  Bit.  I am, however, quite upset with people who are holding us back from MORE progress by being selfish.  Straight-up, that's my criticism.  All three of my kids are immuno-compromised; every unvaccinated person in my community is an opportunity for the virus to harm one or all of them.  This hits very close to home for me.

I can assure you, rongo and I are on the opposite sides of virtually every single discussion on this board. 😆

Just to be clear, .I am not seeing you push the ‘they said it would be one year and now it is two’ complaint at all.  I meant your post was just a bit too American centric for me to be comfortable with because we are still highly impacted by what happens elsewhere.  But we who are individuals on the board here can’t affect them that much, we can affect our neighbors and if the variants get to your kids, it will be most likely your neighbors exposing them, not someone from the other side of the world who happens to bump into them at school.

Edited August 14, 2021 by Calm

[ttribe]

2 minutes ago, Calm said:

Just to be clear, .I am not seeing you push the ‘they said it would be one year and now it is two’ complaint at all.  I meant your post was just a bit too American centric for me to be comfortable with because we are still impacted by what happens elsewhere.

I see and that's a fair comment.  I'll admit to getting a little too caught up in the fact that the majority of our discussants are in North America...and I've been entertaining myself with watching some of the crazy unfold over on LDSFF soooooo, there's that.

[Hamba Tuhan]

2 hours ago, rongo said:

How many military enforced lockdowns have Australia and New Zealand had?

This is a gross mischaracterisation of the limited role the military has played in Australia during the pandemic.

Once again, I find it interesting that what the fringe political left in Australia whinge about is picked up by the (fringe?) political right in America.

[Hamba Tuhan]

1 hour ago, ttribe said:

I can assure you, rongo and I are on the opposite sides of virtually every single discussion on this board.

You're not alone there, mate. Please remember that the next time you and I 'lock horns'. 

[BlueDreams]

6 hours ago, rongo said:

In addition to protecting physical life, there are quality of life considerations. I home taught a 94 year old woman in Gilbert who was devastated by the Covid shutdown. Church and interacting with people was her life. She (and many others I know) would rather live what they have of their lives (they've lived good, long lives) than spend the rest of it isolated and alone. Our friend's grandmother is also in her 90s (we're actually descended from different plural wives of the same man), and she told her granddaughter, "I'm in my 90s. If I die, I die. But I don't want to spend what time I have left not seeing you and wearing a mask." 

It isn't just the very old. There are people who have lost ground in their eternal progress because of the disruption to church and other things. The branches and districts abroad that relied on missionaries have been annihilated, and won't recover. I don't think saving physical life at all costs to the exclusion of all other considerations should be the sole factor. That's the same factor behind, "If it saves just one life, it's all worth it" or goals about total eradication or 100% guaranteed risk elimination. That is no kind of life at all, and it's what our children and youth are having shoved at them. Early in this, people said, "Quit whining and sacrifice. This will be over soon, and we'll be back to normal (you were among these). There is literally no end now. Schools and governments are going to be fighting about masks, "remote learning," restrictions on their lives and interests, etc. indefinitely. Year after year. There are going to be variants and an eternity of boosters or targeted vaccines, ad infinitum. 

The damage we're inflicting on the rising generation with this perpetual non-normalcy (LDS and non-LDS) is incalculable. At first, people were indignant. "They can sacrifice a year of their (to that point short) lives so we can get out of this and have it be over. This tantrumed demand for instant gratification is selfish " Now it's two years, and counting, missing out on the opportunities and experiences that will be valuable to them. At what point is it no longer selfish for them to want old normal (I hate the expression "the new normal")? Say this mask and vaccine-palooza goes on for many years. Do we just sacrifice multiple generations of the young? 

I think for others like me, it isn't as simple as "I don't want to wear a mask. I don't like it." It's much bigger than that. It's wanting normalcy for bigger reasons affecting future generations, the health of the Church, and the ability to continue to roll forth the stone. 

Emotional struggle is inevitable in difficult times. There's no way this would have been easy to manage. As in there's no way it wouldn't have taken sacrifice on our part and sometimes painfully so. There isn't a way this wouldn't cause difficult transitions with church. I felt that and had it exacerbated by our stake (stupidly) deciding to make us a new ward in july 2020....talk about feeling untethered to my local church body. I still feel untethered in some ways. there's no option for sunday school outside of going to church into a small room with a lot of people who will not mask. Family sacrament has been a beautiful grace in this.

I don't doubt there's hurt for others in the church from this at all. But honestly, the response of those resistant to varying safety measures also have done a lot of harm. I've really struggled emotionally in a way I can't find a solid comparison to during the pandemic. The bulk of that I don't tie directly to the pandemic, I tie it to the response. I've had to rearrange how I view relationships in my family...some for the better...others not so much. I was having recurring nightmares about being stuck in indoor settings with unmasked people before I got vaxxed. I don't get nightmares. I also started to have the edges of panic attacks in stores...but I needed to do the grocery shopping because the contact to people and getting out was needed for my sense of okayness. The isolation was getting to me...but in part because I felt somewhat forgotten or unseen. My friends sometimes had laxxer approaches and I think it made it easier to forget that I couldn't afford to with my daughter's rare disorder that I wasn't willing to gamble with. The sense of choice in others highlighted my sense of isolation in what I felt couldn't be a choice I could afford. I was doing therapy for clients with chronic health and other concerns through telehealth. Watching the dance they had to take around this, the callous responses and care from family members, was depressing. Often they were making compromises they wouldn't have if it weren't for family members unintentially pressuring them things they weren't comfortable with or make hard decisions because covid was in their minds overblown as a concern.

After the vaccine started to be more widely dispersed I emotionally crashed. The growing physical safety finally allowed me the space to feel. The last year of what happened caught up in a night of sobbing for over 600K dead in the US. likely millions with new chronic illnesses from long covid. It's estimated 40K children lost a parent. You wanna talk about long lasting effect on children's emotional health, your parent dying prematurely is likely going to leave some wounds. This sorrow quickly followed with rage and a drastic shift in how I see people. I'm an optimistic person by nature. I have to be for my job...it sets me with belief that the mess I see in front of me can be changed. But I couldn't write a truly empathetic story in others for what I just experienced and saw. I realized I was reaching for the wrong thing. I couldn't go for compassion, I had to go for forgiveness (I wasn't willing to go with bitter and cynical about humanity). And so I read the book Forgiveness by Desmund Tutu as self therapy, talked to (safe) loved ones, and honestly flirted going back into therapy until I decided that the communication, reconnections, and soul work were helping to slowly mend me enough. What it's mending me into is definitely not the same person. This next round is reopening things. Younger people are filling the hospitals. More children are losing parents. Hospitals and staff are breaking and straining. And largely because a mix of inertia to vaccinate, vax hesitancy, polarization, and bs info. However it's written, whatever reasoning i find, it reiterates the thing that has repeated in my head over and over again: this didn't have to be like this. I get for whatever reason it's "complicated" for people. But at the end of the explanations, I hear many I still can't shake the sense of blindness and self-centered priorities and foolishness that drive their reasoning.  

Is that healthy? No idea. But I don't think I'm supposed to unsee this...there have been needed spiritual lessons for me in this painful journey. I assume I'll find more through this next wave of stupid. But oh how I wish a more positive lesson of carrying this burden truly together was what I got to learn. 

 

With luv,

BD

Edited August 14, 2021 by BlueDreams

[CV75]

3 hours ago, pogi said:

I haven't.  Maybe I should author one.  Not that I think it will change any minds.  It seems their resistance is less about facts and more about ideology.  They would tear it apart in 2 seconds with their alternative facts. 

I think you might be able to author one, or work with others to do so, and include a section about the effects of ideology on facts (maybe in the preface). But it is just as important to use language that appeals to the intended audience, as if the author is one of them in good faith.

3 hours ago, Calm said:

As in likelihood of getting significantly sick or dying from the vaccine or having to wear a mask vs getting significantly sick or dying from different variants of Covid?  With the attendant medical cost and loss of work? Or do you have something else in mind?

Yes, those kinds of topics but, as mentioned above, presented in the language and (for lack of a better word) "culture" of the audience.

[pogi]

This is so maddening as it is almost completely preventable at no cost.  I don't remember capacity ever being this high.  Welcome to the new normal in hospital care for the unforeseeable future.  I feel SO bad for hospital staff.  They deserve our prayers.

I hope that they give priority to, and make room for, every single non-Covid patient needing an ICU bed, and make those who chose not to be vaccinated to wait in line.  That only seems fair.  It is not right that other innocent people will suffer because of their stubborn bad choices.  I realize it won't happen that way, and other people will not get the care they need because of non-vaxers.

Quote

 

Intermountain hospital intensive care units are at 102% capacity as of Friday, with medical professionals scrambling to find space for people who need to be treated, said Stenehjem, an infectious diseases physician. Patients who are being treated in general medical or surgical units in hospitals are too sick to be there and really should be in intensive care, but there's no space, he said.

The emotional toll has been "incredibly taxing" for ICU doctors and nurses, especially because they're seeing so many hospitalizations from unvaccinated people who didn't have to be there, Stenehjem said.

He added that he's personally feeling numbed to the current situation.

"We're in pretty dire straits right now," Stenehjem said during an Intermountain news conference Friday. "I'm worried. I'm worried about our caregivers, I'm worried about their mental well-being. ... It's a pretty trying time in the hospital."

Hospital officials are looking for ways to preserve space for COVID-19 patients who need it, Stenehjem said. That means elective surgeries could be postponed once again. It's concerning because even though they're referred to as "elective," people still need those procedures, he added.

Stenehjem said he hopes that people in Utah will realize that wearing masks is the next best thing people can do to prevent the spread of COVID-19, aside from getting vaccinated.

"We really need to get this under control before we're in that winter season," he said. "We can't sustain the stress on our health care environment that long."

 

 

Edited August 14, 2021 by pogi

[Hamba Tuhan]

8 hours ago, rongo said:

Commitment and reliability are suffering. "Ministering" was non-existent, even pre-Covid, and Covid killed it off completely. Service in callings largely continues the "shutdown feel."

This reminds me of Amulek's words to the Zoramites, which passage lends itself well to the following revision:

Quote

Ye cannot say, when ye are brought to that awful crisis, that I will repent, that I will return to my God. Nay, ye cannot say this; for that same spirit which doth possess your bodies before a pandemic hits, that same spirit will have power to possess your body during and after the pandemic.

It has very much been my personal experience that the past 18 months have been perfectly designed to teach me which parts of my relationship with the Restored Church have been grounded in genuine discipleship and which parts have perhaps been more 'cultural'. Some of those lessons have hurt me quite deeply. Thankfully -- mercifully! -- repentance is still an option at this point.

But if something as doctrinally foundational and as central to our covenant relationship with Jehovah as ministering isn't a defining feature of our membership when things are good, then our tether to the Church was superficial at best. In such a case, what hope do we have (outside of epiphany followed by sincere repentance) that a disruption of any kind will not 'kill it off completely'.

And we are not finished with disruptions, I strongly suspect. I personally know Saints who diligently kept the Church operating during periods of government banning, both in Africa and in Eastern Europe. One of my family members helped reopen a nation that had been severed from Church headquarters for several years by war. One of my boys served in a nation that was closed down for a time by Ebola, and he was reassigned to serve here, in his homeland -- and did so with passion and loyalty.

The Church weathered the significant disruptions of the Spanish flu pandemic. If 'commitment and reliability' cannot survive this one, then who are we?

Wishing for things to quickly go back to pre-COVID so that members of convenience can go back to treating the Church like their personal 'cookie club' is no way forward, in my opinion.

The Lord knows what He is doing. He desperately needs us to learn some very important lessons right now. I worry that things may not really improve unless or until enough of us do.

By the way, our convert baptism that was scheduled for today had to be postponed because public gatherings have once again been banned where I live. We had one three weeks ago, and we have another one scheduled for 29 August. This last person has already started attending my mission prep class despite not being a member yet. Missionary work is definitely still possible right now ... if we want it to be.

[Rain]

3 hours ago, Hamba Tuhan said:

This reminds me of Amulek's words to the Zoramites, which passage lends itself well to the following revision:

It has very much been my personal experience that the past 18 months have been perfectly designed to teach me which parts of my relationship with the Restored Church have been grounded in genuine discipleship and which parts have perhaps been more 'cultural'. Some of those lessons have hurt me quite deeply. Thankfully -- mercifully! -- repentance is still an option at this point. 

This is true for me as well, but I suspect the road is longer for me. I had to have "permission" to "not go to church" for long enough that after more than a year I could then feel the Spirit telling me it was time to just do the things that felt right. 

I found there was a real burden that came with doing the things that I didn't get that feeling for that made me less capable for the things I really needed to be saving my strength for.   

And it's not like I am just refusing to do every thing I don't want to do.   Some of the things I wasn't excited about I now have a spiritual reason for doing and I understand what had been missing before. 

One thing I have learned is how important it is to develop a Christlike love for others.  I knew that and I knew this was always a struggle for me, but this time it came with deeper understanding and I'm determined to work on that. 

Yet, it has been harder to do this for me than ever before. The Facebook posts I have seen over the last 18 months  (and really about 2.5 years for me) have sometimes been so hateful that it has been hard to reconcile them with faces at church.   I'm not talking about disagreements.  I'm talking about how they expressed the disagreements and talked of other people.   

It is one of the many reasons I have cut my "friends" list down to about 20 from the 400 I had before.   But now it is time to build relationships in person with some of those people again, but this time deeper and more Christlike.  I've found it isn't easy.

3 hours ago, Hamba Tuhan said:

But if something as doctrinally foundational and as central to our covenant relationship with Jehovah as ministering isn't a defining feature of our membership when things are good, then our tether to the Church was superficial at best. In such a case, what hope do we have (outside of epiphany followed by sincere repentance) that a disruption of any kind will not 'kill it off completely'.

And we are not finished with disruptions, I strongly suspect. I personally know Saints who diligently kept the Church operating during periods of government banning, both in Africa and in Eastern Europe. One of my family members helped reopen a nation that had been severed from Church headquarters for several years by war. One of my boys served in a nation that was closed down for a time by Ebola, and he was reassigned to serve here, in his homeland -- and did so with passion and loyalty.

The Church weathered the significant disruptions of the Spanish flu pandemic. If 'commitment and reliability' cannot survive this one, then who are we?

Wishing for things to quickly go back to pre-COVID so that members of convenience can go back to treating the Church like their personal 'cookie club' is no way forward, in my opinion.

The Lord knows what He is doing. He desperately needs us to learn some very important lessons right now. I worry that things may not really improve unless or until enough of us do.

By the way, our convert baptism that was scheduled for today had to be postponed because public gatherings have once again been banned where I live. We had one three weeks ago, and we have another one scheduled for 29 August. This last person has already started attending my mission prep class despite not being a member yet. Missionary work is definitely still possible right now ... if we want it to be.

 

Edited August 14, 2021 by Rain

[pogi]

"In Dallas, we have zero ICU beds left for children," Jenkins said Friday at a virtual news conference. "That means if your child's in a car wreck, if your child has a congenital heart defect or something and needs an ICU bed, or more likely if they have COVID and need an ICU bed, we don't have one. Your child will wait for another child to die."
 

https://apple.news/ArBPF_rZER4SH-o3ZuBtLvQ

Boy it sure is great that masks are not allowed to be mandated in schools though!  

 

Edited August 14, 2021 by pogi

[Metis_LDS]

1 hour ago, Rain said:

One thing I have learned is how important it is to develop a Christlike love for others.  I knew that and I knew this was always a struggle for me, but this time it came with deeper understanding and I'm determined to work on that. 

What a great post,  must of been hard to write (not the words but the emotions).  I would have much to say about it all but do not want to go off this thread topic.

[bsjkki]

By this statistic, the vaccine doesn’t slow the vaccinated from getting covid at all. 
 

*It may help with severe cases but shouldn’t it offer some level of protection against acquiring the disease? 

[Metis_LDS]

4 minutes ago, bsjkki said:

By this statistic

Sorry but what statistic are you talking about?

[bsjkki]

11 minutes ago, bsjkki said:

By this statistic, the vaccine doesn’t slow the vaccinated from getting covid at all. 
 

*It may help with severe cases but shouldn’t it offer some level of protection against acquiring the disease? 

Sorry forgot to add links. But, in Israel, more people are vaccinated than not so maybe when you factor in that percentage, it is still protective? 

Edited August 14, 2021 by bsjkki

[bsjkki]

https://theconversation.com/most-covid-deaths-in-england-now-are-in-the-vaccinated-heres-why-that-shouldnt-alarm-you-163671
 

I thought this an interesting explanation of death rates and vaccines. 
 

 

[Calm]

11 minutes ago, bsjkki said:

Sorry forgot to add links. But, in Israel, more people are vaccinated than not so maybe when you factor in that percentage, it is still protective? 

If 90% vaccinated are giving 53% of cases and 10% unvaccinated are giving 43%, that is still protective as if no protection it would be 90 and 10% assuming other factors are even (the unvaccinated are spread throughout the vaccinated and not grouped in a highly infectious area, ages are the same, etc.)

Edited August 14, 2021 by Calm

[Rain]

3 hours ago, bsjkki said:

By this statistic, the vaccine doesn’t slow the vaccinated from getting covid at all. 
 

*It may help with severe cases but shouldn’t it offer some level of protection against acquiring the disease? 

My understanding was that vaccines overall are not meant to stop the person from getting an infection from the virus, but that the vaccine gives the body the tools to fight off the sickness when the body is infected.  

So the questions comes to does and/or should the vaccine also be fighting off the infection as well as the sickness?

Looking for that I did find this interesting info:

Quote

Should You Get Vaccinated After Being Exposed to Measles, Mumps, or Rubella?

If you do not have immunity against measles, mumps, and rubella and are exposed to someone with one of these diseases, talk with your doctor about getting MMR vaccine. It is not harmful to get MMR vaccine after being exposed to measles, mumps, or rubella, and doing so may possibly prevent later disease.

If you get MMR vaccine within 72 hours of initially being exposed to measles, you may get some protection against the disease, or have milder illness. In other cases, you may be  given a medicine called immunoglobulin (IG) within six days of being exposed to measles, to provide some protection against the disease, or have milder illness.

Unlike with measles, MMR has not been shown to be effective at preventing mumps or rubella in people already infected with the virus (i.e., post-exposure vaccination is not recommended).

During outbreaks of measles or mumps, everyone without presumptive evidence of immunity should be brought up to date on their MMR vaccination. And some people who are already up to date on their MMR vaccination may be recommended to get an additional dose of MMR for added protection against disease.

from the CDC which I'd never known about.   That makes me wonder if they have studied this with the Covid vaccine.  

[Calm]

From my Bishop as their response to the First Presidency letter:

Quote

The letter mentions social distancing and masks. We'll be sitting every other row again in sacrament meeting. The pattern of passing the sacrament will go back to what it was when we first started coming back to Church.

Masks are currently optional, most don’t wear them.  I need to check on singing.

I am grateful they are going back to every other row.

Edited August 14, 2021 by Calm

[Rain]

Mom says her ward is doing every other row.

Husband says stake leadership with few distanced.  The men in our ward had masks.  The women didn't.   The stake presidency and the general authority had masks.  The stake RS and pretty much every other ward in our stake did not.

[Calm]

1 hour ago, Rain said:

Mom says her ward is doing every other row.

Husband says stake leadership with few distanced.  The men in our ward had masks.  The women didn't.   The stake presidency and the general authority had masks.  The stake RS and pretty much every other ward in our stake did not.

That is weird.  
 

added:  probably shouldn’t have been surprised given men are more spiritual than women.

 

Edited August 15, 2021 by Calm