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Posted

I talked last night with the elders for an hour and there isn't enough stuff to do with 6 missionaries in our ward!! so they are going creative. Sometimes members take advantage of them. We had a lawyer man move out sometime ago and he was going on about how he was sad no one was helping other then the missionaries and I emailed him back and said you are a lawyer...why don't you just pay for for a moving company? Skinflint. In one area one member wanted the elders to build him a shed, neither knew what they were doing so 6 hours later and not much done they just left. Stuff like that should be done by people who know what they are doing! In the summer our sister missionaries got heat stroke from gardening at a members' place, which shouldn't have happened. I tell them it's one thing to take out garbage, shovel walks and help someone clean dishes or something but stuff that should be done by the members or a professional is something else

Very true that some things the missionaries should not do.  But how does the church monitor every single missionary I wonder.  Recently my friend's neighbor's son who was on a mission, doing service and fell out of a coconut tree and died.  He was a Samoan, maybe I'll find a link to the story, it's the saddest story.  But I highly doubt his mission president would have approved of his being in a coconut tree like that.      http://www.4utah.com/story/d/story/layton-family-mourns-death-of-lds-missionary/28131/gFHS6H8Co0SqPE1POUA6jw                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

Posted

Very true that some things the missionaries should not do.  But how does the church monitor every single missionary I wonder.  Recently my friend's neighbor's son who was on a mission, doing service and fell out of a coconut tree and died.  He was a Samoan, maybe I'll find a link to the story, it's the saddest story.  But I highly doubt his mission president would have approved of his being in a coconut tree like that.      http://www.4utah.com/story/d/story/layton-family-mourns-death-of-lds-missionary/28131/gFHS6H8Co0SqPE1POUA6jw                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

 

 

that's awful and I am sorry to hear that. I usually tell them what is good and what is not good, just tell them if members can do it themselves then let them if not then help but don't get involved in huge projects or anything that takes a large portion of your time, ongoing projects. We had some years ago a lady who owned a 4 story house and needed roof repairs. Well, you'd have to have a helicopter to fix it and expertise to do the work and she wanted the missionaries and members to do it. You'd need professionals to do that kind of stuff, insured professionals. What if something bad happens? who's responsible and who's going to pay? these people are too much sometimes

Posted

Elder Maxwell once said that what is now a small stream will one day be a flood.  He, of course, was talking about the number of people joining the church.  I have thought long and deeply about how that change will occur.  One possibility which I believe may be the most likely is that the world will have to be humbled before this trend changes.  President Hinckley once said in conference in answering his own question as to why there are not more converts, "there's no faith."  Or at least that is how I recall his statement.  This took me by surprise.

 

Could major political, economic, natural, and military events lead to increased humility and willingness on the part of humanity to consider the message of the gospel?  I don't know how else the number of baptisms will increase significantly.  I readily admit that my perspective is limited and that I do not see or know what the prophets know.

 

When I served a mission in 1990-92, there were 30,000 missionaries and one of those years saw 330K convert baptisms.  It is really striking how little more missionaries has resulted in more baptisms.  

 

It could only be answered with speculation.

 

In my mission to a buffer state between East and West we averaged less than one baptism per missionary per mission.

 

Since 11/9/1989 that has changed, and there is a stake where once there was a mission with branches (far fewer in 1975 than there had been in 1965) and a couple of wards in the capital city.

 

Greater freedoms and a lifting of Soviet economic and political oppression seem to be the reason things have popped since then.

 

I am optimistic.

Posted

I was surprised by the relatively small increase in convert baptisms given the massive increase in missionaries, but it may just a case of us needing time to get the new "forces" ramped up. Next year's numbers should provide a better baseline for our efforts.

No matter what the project is, there is always "Lead / Lag" time.
Posted

I've had a feeling lately that inasmuch as the Church may be too hyper-focused on numbers growth and convert baptisms, that we are missing the bigger picture.  "Proclaim the Gospel" is one of the missions, right?  But "Convert the World" is not.  As it is, we would have to baptize 55 million more people just to get to 1% of the world's population.  So, we're not going to convert the world anytime soon, if ever, and I don't think that's the point of the Church.  I believe now that we're meant to be more of a smaller service organization, putting some things in place and being available with certain ordinances and with the fullness of the Gospel, which we are particularly meant to represent and promote for the sake of awareness (without expectations of people embracing it or joining the Church because of it).  And for the tiny percentage of the world that we physically make up, I think our footprint in terms of awareness is much bigger (whether that awareness is accurate or not).  We can "hasten the work" to proclaim the Gospel, and hopefully many more will join with us, but it's okay if they don't... the billions of others have their own paths that the Lord may want them on.  

 

I also feel like for being so eager to baptize people, that we put up a lot of unnecessary walls that don't help with that, as far as some of our social doctrines and attitudes.  There are a lot of aspects of our Church (separating Church from our theology/faith/Gospel) that are unnecessarily limiting, IMO.  The way we dress, the way the music in our meetings can be dull and lifeless, etc.  We don't need to be hippies, but there's a lock-step to some aspects of our Church that can feel off-putting to those who are not so straight-laced or not in that lock-step.  If we really want to welcome the world into our Church, and more importantly to the restored Gospel of Jesus Christ, I think we may need to loosen up a bit on things that ultimately don't matter to our salvation (i.e., many of our social doctrines).

And the missionaries themselves are not often in a favorable position to succeed.  For one thing, we dress them in a way that inhibits their integration with the people they are living among.  Someone joked that it would be like sending a clown into a place where you know people are afraid of clowns.  Most people who aren't members do not want to entertain missionaries, or welcome them in their homes, so why let everyone know so clearly who they are and that they are coming?  I get the polish and "uniformity" of having a uniform, and being set apart from the world and noticeable in that sense, but from a promotional aspect, it's not very smart.  I do like that missionaries are using the internet more now, and being more available for service opportunities.  I think that's a step in the right direction.

Posted

Grudunza,

I think you articulated much if what I see. There are other issues, but music and do we just make the most interesting subject on earth so boooooring sometimes. Funeral marches for music sometimes. My wife says Church is supposed to be contemplative. I don't know what it should look like though. Like Hawaii for a start. Let women wear pants to Church. No jeans, but more legs will get covered than they are now. Try finding a modest skirt for a tall 13 year old girl. Utterly, impossible.

And guilt. Can we leave some of that out. Gotta have some, but boy. Going to bed now. Thanks.

Posted

I think the Church has a primary target for converts as the missionaries themselves.  This is first and foremost. Then after that of course the Church wants more converts else they would not put all these resources into the work.  Even though most missionaies pay their own way the Church outlay for missionary work has to be substantial.  I think there has to be some disappointment that so far the great leap in numbers serving has not resulted in more converts.

 

TIme will only tell whether there will be a "pay off" on the convert side.

Posted

Yeah.  I don't get the pride often expressed in our growth and size.  We're very small relatively speaking. The amount of effort we put into trying to grow compared to where we are, there's just not a lot to get excited about.  Couple that with the retention of converts...and it almost seems like we're spinning our wheels headed next to nowhere.  Then what we often don't consider is how many are leaving. 

 

The huge increase in missionaries and the no increase in benefits seems to indicate the issue has more to do with our inefficient methods than to do with lack of people.    When we repeat that many are called and few are chosen, I wonder what we're talking about.

Posted

I think the Church has a primary target for converts as the missionaries themselves.  This is first and foremost. Then after that of course the Church wants more converts else they would not put all these resources into the work.  Even though most missionaies pay their own way the Church outlay for missionary work has to be substantial.  I think there has to be some disappointment that so far the great leap in numbers serving has not resulted in more converts.

 

TIme will only tell whether there will be a "pay off" on the convert side.

 

Why would we wait to see increase?  If there are that many more missionaries the increase should be immediate.  And when this all evens out and we are back closer to the amount of missionaries we had a couple of years ago, why would we then see an increase in coverts?  Doesn't seem to make sense to me.  But we can wait and see, I guess.

Posted (edited)

The Jehovah's Witness started in about 1880 and are somewhat similar in their missionary program, going door to door, however they have over seven million active members.  On their big day in the Spring, Christ's Memorial, they have several times that in attendance.  They only count active members as members.  In many European Countries they have several or ten times the active membership over LDS.

 

LDS claim over fifteen million but most people in the know will admit that there is closer to five or six million active members.  So why is this happening?

Edited by Sanpitch
Posted (edited)

Back in the late 90's our conversion rate dropped to the level of around 9-10 converts per full-time missionary companionship per year.  It stayed at that level until 2013 when it has now dropped to just under 7 converts per companionship (a historical low for as long as the data has been reported).

 

2013 was, of course, the year that we had a 24,000 increase in the full-time missionary force.  So what that seems to show is that converts are more a function of members than full-time missionaries.  Or that the new younger missionaries are less effective, but I lean towards the former.  And, I think just about everything we've ever heard from church leadership tells us that they also believe converts come from members, not missionaries.

 

As for "real growth" in the church, I tend to look at the growth rate of "Stakes of Zion".  The annual growth rate for number of Stakes/Districts is averaging below 1% century-to-date.  This would mean that "real growth" has fallen below the world's population growth rate so we're getting smaller as a percentage of global population.  Those are the Church-provided numbers but obviously my personal definition of real growth.

Edited by rockpond
Posted

The Jehovah's Witness started in about 1880 and are somewhat similar in their missionary program, going door to door, however they have over seven million active members.  On their big day in the Spring, Christ's Memorial, they have several times that in attendance.  They only count active members as members.  In many European Countries they have several or ten times the active membership.

 

LDS claim over fifteen million but most people in the know will admit that there is closer to five or six million active members.  So why is this happening?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/04/09/mormon-church-online_n_5024251.html?utm_hp_ref=fb&src=sp&comm_ref=false

 

"Whereas traditional Mormon missionaries convert, on average, six people during their 18- to 20-month service, the online apostles in Provo have averaged around 30 converts per missionary per year, says Burton. And these people stick around. Ninety-five percent of the Internet converts have kept active, a retention rate more than triple the norm."  John Dehlin posted this on FB.  Very interesting indeed.  Maybe this internet thing is the thing. 

Posted

I was surprised by the relatively small increase in convert baptisms given the massive increase in missionaries, but it may just a case of us needing time to get the new "forces" ramped up. Next year's numbers should provide a better baseline for our efforts.

 In one more year the missionary #'s will decrease greatly

Right now there are the 18-20 year olds (new group) and the 19- 23 years ods (old group)

Essentially you simply got the missionaries from 2-3 years in the future to go out early.

 

once the first (older group goes home) the numbers will flatten back to a little more then the #'s from a few years ago (more sisters will go so numbers will be slightly higher)

 

You have basically a 2 year window to doing something with the increased workforce.

Posted (edited)

... When I served a mission in 1990-92, there were 30,000 missionaries and one of those years saw 330K convert baptisms.  It is really striking how little more missionaries has resulted in more baptisms.  

http://www.mormonmissionprep.com/news/number-of-mormon-missionaries/

 

If this site is correct, your numbers are a bit off.  

 

1990  43,651

1991  43,395

1992  46,025

Edited by Kenngo1969
Posted

Missionaries don't work hard enough these days. I know that's a general statement, but it is generally true. For example, they work an 8 hour day. Thirty years ago we were required to work at least 10 hours but encouraged to work more. I regularly worked a 12 hour day and so did most of us.

Nowadays they don't even start work until noon; and they sit around watching Disney DVD's on P-day. I think they have forgotten that "P" stands for "preperation" not "personal" day. In the past we would shop, wash, clean and write letters. When that was done it was out to work even if there was technically several hours of P-day left.

They also teach appallingly badly. I have been on splits with them and it is obvious their investigators haven't got a clue what they're on about. I have had to intervene many times to "translate" what the missionaries are saying.

And when they do bring someone into the church it just creates problems for the ward leadership and members because the new member knows nothing. I have dealt with new converts who know nothing about tithing, the restoration, Joseph Smith, word of wisdom and more. There is no local input into the assessment of the candidate prior to baptism. It's an inside job. The District/Zone Leaders interview the baptismal candidate and approve the proposed baptism. To fail to approve would adversely effect the Zone targets so they let them go through even if they (the candidates) haven't a clue what it's all about.

Frankly, I'm surprised they baptise anyone, and retaining them is a miracle.

Posted

http://www.mormonmissionprep.com/news/number-of-mormon-missionaries/

 

If this site is correct, your numbers are a bit off.  

 

1990  43,651

1991  43,395

1992  46,025

 

According to the statistics reported in conference, the number of missionaries you've listed here is correct.

 

And convert baptisms for those three years (in order) were 331k, 298k, and 274k (rounded).

 

That puts converts per F/T missionary companionship at 15.2, 13.7, and 11.9 (respectively).

 

Now, if we compare converts per MEMBER, we get this:

 

1990 = 0.043 converts baptized per member of record

2013 = 0.019 converts baptized per member of record

 

That's a big drop in conversion rate over the past two dozen years but, 2010 (BEFORE the missionary "surge") we were at the SAME number of converts baptized per member of record, 0.019.

 

So, while there has been a decreasing rate of conversion over the past few decades, it still looks like conversion rates are more tied to members than the number of missionaries.

Posted

First time poster, have lurked a bit over time.  Anyways, just wanted to chime in on the discussion.   I have the 2005 Church Almanac, and it has the year end stats for 2003. (Sadly it is out of print.)   I have compared this with the 2013 numbers, and just wanted to show some things.  Yes, they percentage growth rate has slowed down, but that also could be due to raising the bar, and the desire to not baptize inactive members.  There are some leaving as well, but overall the church is still growing.

 

In any event here is a one decade look at the church with the end of year stats.

 

Total Membership

2003 11,985,254

2013 15,082,028

Percent increase 20.5%

 

Total Stakes and Wards/Branches

2003 2,624 & 26,237

2013 3,050 & 29,253

Percent increase (14% stake; 10.3% ward)

 

United States*

2003 5,503,192

2013 6,398,889

Percent Increase 14%

 

US Stakes and Wards/Branches

2003 1,353 & 12,112

2013 1,513 & 13,866

Percent increase (10.4 stake, 14% ward)

 

Canada*

2003 166,442

2013 190,265

Percent Increase 12.5%

 

Canada Stakes and Wards/Branches

2003 46 & 479

2013 47 & 479

Percent increase (2.2% stake; 0% ward)

 

*80% of all tithing revenue comes from these two countries.   While membership is growing more in the 3rd world, the idea that it is stagnant in the US is not the case.   Every state has seen an increase in membership, and the highest baptizing areas are in the West and Southeast, while the NE has the slowest growing membership.   Canada has more members, but this has not translated to new congregations for the most part.  Some provinces have fewer wards, but there is one more stake today than there was 10 years ago.   The reason I bring all of this up is due to a couple of patterns.   It is costing more money for the church to send out the new missionaries, and they have not announced any new temples in a year.  I think these two things, plus slower growth rates in North America than the rest of the world are related.

 

In any event, the claims by many that the church is only growing in the 3rd world are simply not the case.  It is growing faster there, though retention is a major challenge.

 

If anyone cares about individual percentage growth in any particular state or country, I would be glad to look it up.  The detailed individual numbers are not available online.

Posted

First time poster, have lurked a bit over time.  Anyways, just wanted to chime in on the discussion.   I have the 2005 Church Almanac, and it has the year end stats for 2003. (Sadly it is out of print.)   I have compared this with the 2013 numbers, and just wanted to show some things.  Yes, they percentage growth rate has slowed down, but that also could be due to raising the bar, and the desire to not baptize inactive members.  There are some leaving as well, but overall the church is still growing.

 

In any event here is a one decade look at the church with the end of year stats.

 

Total Membership

2003 11,985,254

2013 15,082,028

Percent increase 20.5%

 

Total Stakes and Wards/Branches

2003 2,624 & 26,237

2013 3,050 & 29,253

Percent increase (14% stake; 10.3% ward)

 

United States*

2003 5,503,192

2013 6,398,889

Percent Increase 14%

 

US Stakes and Wards/Branches

2003 1,353 & 12,112

2013 1,513 & 13,866

Percent increase (10.4 stake, 14% ward)

 

Canada*

2003 166,442

2013 190,265

Percent Increase 12.5%

 

Canada Stakes and Wards/Branches

2003 46 & 479

2013 47 & 479

Percent increase (2.2% stake; 0% ward)

 

*80% of all tithing revenue comes from these two countries.   While membership is growing more in the 3rd world, the idea that it is stagnant in the US is not the case.   Every state has seen an increase in membership, and the highest baptizing areas are in the West and Southeast, while the NE has the slowest growing membership.   Canada has more members, but this has not translated to new congregations for the most part.  Some provinces have fewer wards, but there is one more stake today than there was 10 years ago.   The reason I bring all of this up is due to a couple of patterns.   It is costing more money for the church to send out the new missionaries, and they have not announced any new temples in a year.  I think these two things, plus slower growth rates in North America than the rest of the world are related.

 

In any event, the claims by many that the church is only growing in the 3rd world are simply not the case.  It is growing faster there, though retention is a major challenge.

 

If anyone cares about individual percentage growth in any particular state or country, I would be glad to look it up.  The detailed individual numbers are not available online.

 

 

being a Canadian, I know the closed down the Mississauga Stake and created the Barrie one. There are more members outside of Alberta and more stakes but the density of the members live in Alberta. Retention is a challenge but Canada and assuming everywhere else too people move. We baptized two people last year one is in the wind but referred his dad to the missionaries and he got baptized and the other fella we baptized moved away to Florida. it's one of family and two of a city here

Posted

First time poster, have lurked a bit over time.  Anyways, just wanted to chime in on the discussion.   I have the 2005 Church Almanac, and it has the year end stats for 2003. (Sadly it is out of print.)   I have compared this with the 2013 numbers, and just wanted to show some things.  Yes, they percentage growth rate has slowed down, but that also could be due to raising the bar, and the desire to not baptize inactive members.  There are some leaving as well, but overall the church is still growing.

 

In any event here is a one decade look at the church with the end of year stats.

 

Total Membership

2003 11,985,254

2013 15,082,028

Percent increase 20.5%

 

Total Stakes and Wards/Branches

2003 2,624 & 26,237

2013 3,050 & 29,253

Percent increase (14% stake; 10.3% ward)

 

United States*

2003 5,503,192

2013 6,398,889

Percent Increase 14%

 

US Stakes and Wards/Branches

2003 1,353 & 12,112

2013 1,513 & 13,866

Percent increase (10.4 stake, 14% ward)

 

Canada*

2003 166,442

2013 190,265

Percent Increase 12.5%

 

Canada Stakes and Wards/Branches

2003 46 & 479

2013 47 & 479

Percent increase (2.2% stake; 0% ward)

 

*80% of all tithing revenue comes from these two countries.   While membership is growing more in the 3rd world, the idea that it is stagnant in the US is not the case.   Every state has seen an increase in membership, and the highest baptizing areas are in the West and Southeast, while the NE has the slowest growing membership.   Canada has more members, but this has not translated to new congregations for the most part.  Some provinces have fewer wards, but there is one more stake today than there was 10 years ago.   The reason I bring all of this up is due to a couple of patterns.   It is costing more money for the church to send out the new missionaries, and they have not announced any new temples in a year.  I think these two things, plus slower growth rates in North America than the rest of the world are related.

 

In any event, the claims by many that the church is only growing in the 3rd world are simply not the case.  It is growing faster there, though retention is a major challenge.

 

If anyone cares about individual percentage growth in any particular state or country, I would be glad to look it up.  The detailed individual numbers are not available online.

 

Yes, still growing but the trend isn't good.

 

In the 70's & 80's we averaged about a 5% growth rate (total membership).

In the 90's, that growth rate dropped to 4%.

Then 3% in the first decade of this century.

Now, since 2010, we are averaging a 2% growth rate.

 

See the trend?

 

And that doesn't account for "real growth", just membership count.

Posted

Yes, still growing but the trend isn't good.

 

In the 70's & 80's we averaged about a 5% growth rate (total membership).

In the 90's, that growth rate dropped to 4%.

Then 3% in the first decade of this century.

Now, since 2010, we are averaging a 2% growth rate.

 

See the trend?

 

And that doesn't account for "real growth", just membership count.

 

I have no arguments there, except simply that to grow 3 million into 4 million than 12 million to 16 million.  Albania had a 49% rate of growth from 2003, to 2013, and now has the first stake Southeastern Europe.  They will be hard pressed to repeat that growth from 2013-2023.

 

In addition it is tricky, much of the growth in the past was inactive members, and while I was out at the turn of the century they clamped down on making sure people were truly committed to membership.  A lot more resources were put into building temples closer to people from 1992-2013, and maybe a few less went into the missionary program.

 

With all of the new temples to accommodate the previous growth, I have seen a renewed emphasis on the resources put into the mission program.   I do think it will yield more success, particularly with more sisters going out.  No man need run faster than he has speed.

Posted

Why would we wait to see increase?  If there are that many more missionaries the increase should be immediate.  And when this all evens out and we are back closer to the amount of missionaries we had a couple of years ago, why would we then see an increase in coverts?  Doesn't seem to make sense to me.  But we can wait and see, I guess.

 

 

Sometimes there is a lag. Personally I don't think you will see a large surge in converts. The church has a lot going against it in the area of attracting converts.

Posted

Missionaries don't work hard enough these days. I know that's a general statement, but it is generally true. For example, they work an 8 hour day. Thirty years ago we were required to work at least 10 hours but encouraged to work more. I regularly worked a 12 hour day and so did most of us.

Nowadays they don't even start work until noon; and they sit around watching Disney DVD's on P-day. I think they have forgotten that "P" stands for "preperation" not "personal" day. In the past we would shop, wash, clean and write letters. When that was done it was out to work even if there was technically several hours of P-day left.

They also teach appallingly badly. I have been on splits with them and it is obvious their investigators haven't got a clue what they're on about. I have had to intervene many times to "translate" what the missionaries are saying.

And when they do bring someone into the church it just creates problems for the ward leadership and members because the new member knows nothing. I have dealt with new converts who know nothing about tithing, the restoration, Joseph Smith, word of wisdom and more. There is no local input into the assessment of the candidate prior to baptism. It's an inside job. The District/Zone Leaders interview the baptismal candidate and approve the proposed baptism. To fail to approve would adversely effect the Zone targets so they let them go through even if they (the candidates) haven't a clue what it's all about.

Frankly, I'm surprised they baptise anyone, and retaining them is a miracle.

  Must be a result of "Raising the Bar."

Posted

If I were prophet for a day, I would totally revamp the missionary program. The first thing I would do is send all American missionaries to foreign missions and vice a versa. The first year would be spent doing real service projects (clean water programs for example under the supervision of trained (maybe paid) experts. During that year they would actually learn the local language and customs. Their second year would be spent proselyting. They would be much more effective and they would not burn out as much. If they were doing real service, not just helping people move or picking up trash, people would be much more open to hear their message.

 

two cents from an ex-member 

Posted (edited)

If I were prophet for a day, I would totally revamp the missionary program. The first thing I would do is send all American missionaries to foreign missions and vice a versa. The first year would be spent doing real service projects (clean water programs for example under the supervision of trained (maybe paid) experts. During that year they would actually learn the local language and customs. Their second year would be spent proselyting. They would be much more effective and they would not burn out as much. If they were doing real service, not just helping people move or picking up trash, people would be much more open to hear their message.

 

two cents from an ex-member 

 

For what it's worth, I think we are moving in that direction.  I believe we'll see more and more service hours as other methods of proselytizing become less productive.  I also am starting to see (at least in my stake) a certain exhaustion on the part of members with respect to requests from the mission... as they have increased the number of missionaries it has put more of a strain on families to house them, feed them, and keep them busy.  Beginning to see "push back". 

Edited by rockpond
Posted (edited)

For what it's worth, I think we are moving in that direction.  I believe we'll see more and more service hours as other methods of proselytizing become less productive.  I also am starting to see (at least in my stake) a certain exhaustion on the part of members with respect to requests from the mission... as they have increased the number of missionaries it has put more of a strain on families to house them, feed them, and keep them busy.  Beginning to see "push back". 

 

yeah, in the Vancouver BC mission the missionaries can't go to a DA without an investigator so in my sister's ward the missionaries hardly get fed from the members beyond what they give them at church and stuff. Here the Stake Pres. has this policy about having the missionaries in for a DA every night and the ward mission leaders are supposed to call all the members and less actives asking them to have the missionaries over. In our ward with maybe 100 people and because of other restrictions the missionaries get fed maybe 2-4 times a week so for me it's good enough and they know it's good enough. One High councilman called our stake a "tired stake" and it's true, people just burn out and quit.

Edited by Duncan
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