Statistics And Church Growth

[rockpond]

This is a common thread that moves like water through the anti-Mormon types. Some in the Church makes claims of dishonesty from Church leaders, while other outside the Church call us lairs. The simple fact is, if you are a member of record...you will be counted. In short we count the same way every other faith.

I'm familiar with the types of "numbers" debates you are referring to but this has not been one of them. No anti-Mormons here. Nobody has called the leaders "liars". It's actually been a level-headed discussion about what the current statistics could mean for the future progress of missionary work.

[readstoomuch]

Yes, to your book stargazer.

PaPa, I have tried to be as positive as I can. I am a ward missionary now. There are challenges and the statistics were announced at conference. Even the former mormons are trying to help with ideas.

[Senator]

yeah, in the Vancouver BC mission the missionaries can't go to a DA without an investigator so in my sister's ward the missionaries hardly get fed from the members beyond what they give them at church and stuff. Here the Stake Pres. has this policy about having the missionaries in for a DA every night and the ward mission leaders are supposed to call all the members and less actives asking them to have the missionaries over. .

 

As a previous ward mission leader I had that "privilege" of filling the missionary meal list.  What really started to grind my grits was when the missionaries would call up with a little rebuke in there voice questioning if I had filled the list, because they actually had a night or two where they had to feed themselves........

 

Grrrr.......I lived two years off of spaghetti and French toast on my mission.  Spoiled brats!!

 

As you suspect, I wasn't the most beloved of WMLs

[Gray]

I suspect it's hard to retain converts regardless of what specific church we're talking about. Some people are always seeking something, and more willing than others to pack up and change religions. If they are the type of person who will abandon Catholocism for Mormonism, then it's also not a stretch that in the future they'll abandon Mormonism for something else

[stemelbow]

I suspect it's hard to retain converts regardless of what specific church we're talking about. Some people are always seeking something, and more willing than others to pack up and change religions. If they are the type of person who will abandon Catholocism for Mormonism, then it's also not a stretch that in the future they'll abandon Mormonism for something else

 

Yes.  And thus we see why we have over 15 million on our records but are closer to 4 million or 5 million who regularly attend, even after we report hundreds of thousands of converts each year. 

Edited April 10, 2014 by stemelbow

[Gray]

Yes.  And thus we see why we have over 15 million on our records but are closer to 4 million or 5 million who regularly attend, even after we report hundreds of thousands of converts each year. 

 

Yes, I think that's a part of it. I'm sure there are a lot of other reasons as well. Lack of consistent fellowship, people feeling overburdened/under nourished spiritually, the usual faith crisis issues, etc.

[stemelbow]

Yes, I think that's a part of it. I'm sure there are a lot of other reasons as well. Lack of consistent fellowship, people feeling overburdened/under nourished spiritually, the usual faith crisis issues, etc.

 

And most of all apathy. 

[eddie]

This is a common thread that moves like water through the anti-Mormon types. Some in the Church makes claims of dishonesty from Church leaders, while other outside the Church call us lairs. The simple fact is, if you are a member of record...you will be counted. In short we count the same way every other faith.

 

If we were to apply this litmus test to every church, how many of the world's 1.3 billion Catholics would be counted.   I was in Italy for a couple of years, and can tell you that the vast majority never attend church, unless you count Christmas and Easter.  It is actually a sad thing to see, because that lifestyle ends up being passed onto converts that have a hard time changing habits.

 

The fastest growing places in the US for LDS Church growth are in places where people are generally more religious, and I would imagine retention is probably easier.   Many of the ideas from the reformation, Great Awakening, and Second Great Awakening are instrumental in bringing about the restoration of the Gospel.

[eddie]

Market Saturation

 

Argentina is not saturated.  Going strictly by the number of converts, it has been a very successful place for the Church to proselyte.

 

In the past 17 years the number of members has gone up by 36%.  There are 10 new stakes and 113 new wards in the country since 1997.  Many of the new missions that were created were in Central and South America.

[Gray]

And most of all apathy. 

 

I think so, yes

[Anteojito]

You can triangulate an estimation of our retention rate with the numbers the church provides. For 2013 it would go something like this (in round numbers)...

We baptized 285k

Gave birth to 115k ("children of record")

That's an increase of 400k for the year.

But then you need to subtract out deaths... Applying the global mortality rate to our total membership figure we should have lost around 140k to the other side of the veil.

That means that total membership should have increased by 260k. But we are reporting an increase of almost 300k. So, that means that we have a perfect retention rate and/or a lower than average death rate.

Unless I've missed something.

I don't think retention rates play into it. Unless a person has their named removed (like I did) they count as members whether are active or not. I am also a little suspicious about whether or not the church actually deducts resignations since they aren't open about the numbers.

[Anteojito]

Where?  

I was in Bs. As. North 84-86

I was in the North mission 80-82

[Anteojito]

Anteojeto,

I am impressed that you care enough as an ex-member to give us missionary ideas. Hopefully, your path is calm and good for you.

 

Thanks. Honestly I have never been more happy or at peace as I have been since I left the church.

[seed]

The growth rate and number of converts is flattening out. It has happened for several years and fortunately still shows some growth. The number of missionaries has grown markedly, but is not necessarily showing up in the form of converts. I have always thought the growth rate was not as important as the "quality" rate of the converts or the Church itself.

Could missionary work be transitioned to more service? Could we have a higher percentage of missionaries called only as service missionaries? Are movements such as Ordain Women, MormonStories, or others being negatively affecting growth through negative publicity or through resignations? At least the Church released/owned the statistics. Could there be positive aspects to this data? I think there could tremendous opportunities for missonaries if we can think outside of the proselyting box. I hear lip service to service and missionaries, but not as tangible of change as I had hoped for and some pressure by local leaders to have more for the missionaries to teach/do.

I believe that LDS has a lot to offer person.  This is some ideas on this topic. 

 

I know without any doubts that it is really difficult to get metrics right.  I mean, having metrics usually originates from a desire to improve, but..  they can be destructive when the desire to improve the metrics becomes more important then improving the thing that the metrics are measuring.  This can occurs when we are compensated or measured on the metric.  Not saying that’s occurring in this case, but it might be...

 

Small companies sometimes find themselves in the tornado.  This means that progress and success are happening so fast that no one takes time to “metric” it.  It doesn’t matter because the goal is already being met due to an almost supernatural explosion of success…  Other organizations end up spending all the time measuring because there is no tornado..  Is the Church in the tornado ?

 

There is so much value from the current missionary process.  But it slightly feels like war, where we send our young men to do it and then sit home and complain.  Usually when we win it is when the older men got into the fight and it’s for keeps.

[rockpond]

I don't think retention rates play into it. Unless a person has their named removed (like I did) they count as members whether are active or not. I am also a little suspicious about whether or not the church actually deducts resignations since they aren't open about the numbers.

 

Yeah, the number I was getting at is really retention in terms of members of record.  Which may not be "retention" by some definitions.

 

Here's another approach:  In the past decade, we've had almost a 23% increase in membership.  During that same period, the total number of stakes/districts has only increased by just over 9%.

 

There are obviously a number of factors that play into that but one could estimate that have, therefore, had 14% of membership go inactive during the past decade.  (Be careful how you read that... I'm not saying it's an inactivity rate of 14%, but that 14% of total membership stopped attending during that timeframe.  And it's just an estimation.)

[USU78]

And most of all apathy. 

 

I don't see that.  Life's very hard, and many people who prolly consider themselves to be good, strong, active Mormons don't look like that objectively, since the sole measure people seem to be looking at is (a) current temple recommend + (b) regular attendance.

 

USU "My 3 home teachee familes, for example" 78

[USU78]

I don't think retention rates play into it. Unless a person has their named removed (like I did) they count as members whether are active or not. I am also a little suspicious about whether or not the church actually deducts resignations since they aren't open about the numbers.

 

Why be shy.

 

Go ahead and call 'em liars.

[readstoomuch]

Anteijito doesn't seem to be that sort of fellow.

[rockpond]

I don't think retention rates play into it. Unless a person has their named removed (like I did) they count as members whether are active or not. I am also a little suspicious about whether or not the church actually deducts resignations since they aren't open about the numbers.

 

In order to make sense of the numbers, you have to assume that either they aren't removing resignations/excommunications and/or since they aren't likely to know when inactive members die, they are leaving them on the records for some period of time.

[Calm]

since they aren't likely to know when inactive members die, they are leaving them on the records for some period of time.

Which, I believe, the Church states that they do.  I certainly have heard it often enough.

[rockpond]

Which, I believe, the Church states that they do.  I certainly have heard it often enough.

 

I don't know if they have publicly stated that but I can't think of any other way to handle it.  Can you imagine if someone returned to activity in the church, for example, in their 80's only to discover that the church removed their records since they had passed the median age of death (or something like that)?  Not a conversation that any ward clerk wants to have with a newly reactivated senior citizen.

[stemelbow]

I don't see that.  Life's very hard, and many people who prolly consider themselves to be good, strong, active Mormons don't look like that objectively, since the sole measure people seem to be looking at is (a) current temple recommend + (b) regular attendance.

 

USU "My 3 home teachee familes, for example" 78

 

I agree there are plenty of people in the type of situation you mention.  But I also think there are plenty who more or less aren't concerned about church and religious things, at least at this point in their lives, thus they don't show up and don't participate.  There are many in my ward as you describe and perhaps even more filled with apathy when it comes to Church things.

[Sanpitch]

Since I have JWs in the family, I'm familiar with their standards for joining their faith. The LDS might take a look at it. Before joining or getting baptized as a JW a person must study the bible for several months with a JW and they must be living the JW standards; no tobacco and no heavy drinking. If a current member is not attending meetings for a period of time and not going out in their missionary activities they are taken off the rolls unless handicapped or other legitimate reasons.

[Rain]

readstoomuch - I added you as a friend hoping it would give me a way to contact you, but it didn't that I can see. Maybe I have to have 25 posts like you do to edit?  DH and I have just been called as ward missionary and leader.  We would like to know more of what you are doing please.  We have much the same thoughts as you've stated about creating friendships.  

 

 

 

From where I serve in the church, I'm seeing area authorities and mission presidencies that seem to be struggling to keep their missionaries occupied.  

 That is one of our concerns.  Our ward here is about 2.5 times the geographical size of our ward in UT, so pretty small.  We have a set of missionaries in it.  The bishop is concerned because we are the only ward in our stake who that has it's own set of missionaries and they may end up covering more wards if they don't get busier.  I'm not concerned.  It's ok if we share for now - if it gets busier then we can change that.  It's not going to change how I and the ward works.  Putting pressure on ward member to keep the missionaries busy rarely works and never works for very long or very well.  

 

Duncan - would you send me the pictures as well? 

[USU78]

I agree there are plenty of people in the type of situation you mention.  But I also think there are plenty who more or less aren't concerned about church and religious things, at least at this point in their lives, thus they don't show up and don't participate.  There are many in my ward as you describe and perhaps even more filled with apathy when it comes to Church things.

 

Mileage necessarily varies