We're Headed Back to Church! Sorta.

[Peacefully]

My husband and I have talked about this. I feel more strongly than he does that we as a family are not ready to go back to services, yet. I’ve been keeping a spreadsheet of the new cases and the deaths by day in Texas, just so I can see it all at a glance. Since our gradual reopening we have had over 1000 new cases 15 out of last 19 days. One day last week was the highest death toll so far. I would be surprised if our stake opens up for services anytime soon. If we do, I will probably wait for the curve to trend downward for a few weeks. I would also like to wait until there are more reliable treatments so that the likelihood of getting seriously ill or dying is much less. 

Edited May 20, 2020 by Peacefully

[Tacenda]

8 minutes ago, Peacefully said:

My husband and I have talked about this. I feel more strongly than he does that we as a family are not ready to go back to services, yet. I’ve been keeping a spreadsheet of the new cases and the deaths by day in Texas, just so I can see it all at a glance. Since our gradual reopening we have had over 1000 new cases 15 out of last 19 days. One day last week was the highest death toll so far. I would be surprised if our stake opens up for services anytime soon. If we do, I will probably wait for the curve to trend downward for a few weeks. I would also like to wait until there are more reliable treatments so that the likelihood of getting seriously ill or dying is much less. 

We had a huge jump, 8 deaths today! Our usual is about 1 a day.

[Calm]

41 minutes ago, let’s roll said:

Well I’m in the minority for almost half of the combined poll questions list.  Confirms my status as a contrarian, I suppose.

Got to admit not a fan of Tom Hanks or Betty White. (The last solely for the characters, I don’t know anything about her as an individual).

[Calm]

9 minutes ago, Tacenda said:

We had a huge jump, 8 deaths today! Our usual is about 1 a day.

That could be a fluke with such small numbers to start with, need to see if that becomes the new norm or not. 
 

Makes me nervous though. 

Edited May 20, 2020 by Calm

[Calm]

19 minutes ago, Peacefully said:

would also like to wait until there are more reliable treatments so that the likelihood of getting seriously ill or dying is much less. 

This...even if infection rates drop, it is going to be more spread out, so still high risk imo. Once they become uncommon again, then I will relax. My daughter has too many issues already. I am hoping we get a vaccine before she is forced into being exposed because her dad is forced back into teaching, meeting with students, etc. 

[The Nehor]

Those insisting it is too early may be jumping the gun. We do not even know which areas are opening. We had meetings tonight in Texas and most of the participants seem to think the church will not be opening here for a while. They are not making the decisions but I suspect this will be slower than people suspect.

It is like the people annoyed at BYU getting so much aid money relative to other schools and then finding out BYU refused it. It might be needless angst and there are enough real things to be angsty about already. 

Edited May 20, 2020 by The Nehor

[The Nehor]

52 minutes ago, Calm said:

This...even if infection rates drop, it is going to be more spread out, so still high risk imo. Once they become uncommon again, then I will relax. My daughter has too many issues already. I am hoping we get a vaccine before she is forced into being exposed because her dad is forced back into teaching, meeting with students, etc. 

There are only four ways out of this that I see.

1. Strict and absolute quarantine to kill it off. This would be three weeks everyone has no contact outside household with only base essentials working and minimize food deliveries. Medical care would have to function and treat who they can but by the end if it were enforced the virus would die off. Not really possibly politically or logistically at this point.

2. Quarantine to get numbers manageable as cases fall followed by vigorous contact tracing to contain outbreaks but I still do not see the resources needed to do that or the will to do that level of tracking. I was a little hopeful when the Texas governor talked about contact  tracing to stamp it out but the numbers are too high relative to the number of tests and you need a dedicated and large force to work the contact tracing. Also I have heard nothing about it since. Plus Americans would probably be terrible about accepting the need and complying with it. You would also have to enforce quarantines on anyone coming out of infection zones. You need an autocracy or a very dedicated population to make this work.

3. Loosen and strengthen restrictions as cases rise and fall to keep from overloading medical facilities and hope we can keep it contained from the vulnerable long enough that we get general herd immunity. This means about half the population would need antibodies to fight it off. This will only work if immunity works. If it does not this virus becomes endemic and maybe something we just have to live with until we have a vaccine assuming we can make a vaccine. I am not sure this will happen. Will we be willing to lose down again if it gets bad?

4. Do little to contain it. In this case you have to hope healthcare does not get overloaded. Virtually everyone gets it eventually but a lot of the vulnerable are dead. This maximizes the death toll so social security might last a few more years. If we get vaccine quickly it might not be too bad but I am not optimistic. Eventually it burns out if immunity holds. If not it becomes endemic and we have a Darwinian virus weeding out the vulnerable and elderly.

 

Edited May 20, 2020 by The Nehor

[bsjkki]

The problem with church is it is indoors and social distancing is difficult. Singing hymns is not the safest activity. My area will not be going back to church for quite awhile. I would prefer gloves to break bread and prepare the Sacrament. Interesting update on church issues with reopening. https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/498643-two-southern-churches-forced-to-reclose-after-leaders-and

[JLHPROF]

Leaving aside the virus issues I am a little surprised at how many are saying they prefer staying home for Church.

It makes me wonder if I fully comprehend all the reasons the Church exists and my role in it.  I can't help feel if people prefer worshipping at home over building the Kingdom if Satan is winning just a little in all this.

I mean, what is the purpose in attending Church?

[let’s roll]

1 hour ago, Calm said:

Got to admit not a fan of Tom Hanks or Betty White. (The last solely for the characters, I don’t know anything about her as an individual).

I suppose it’s un-American, but I don’t like apple pie.

[Calm]

2 minutes ago, let’s roll said:

I suppose it’s un-American, but I don’t like apple pie.

Depends for me. Not my favorite. Often too sweet and apples are mushy. 
 

Coconut cream all the way. 

Edited May 20, 2020 by Calm

[let’s roll]

15 minutes ago, JLHPROF said:

Leaving aside the virus issues I am a little surprised at how many are saying they prefer staying home for Church.

It makes me wonder if I fully comprehend all the reasons the Church exists and my role in it.  I can't help feel if people prefer worshipping at home over building the Kingdom if Satan is winning just a little in all this.

I mean, what is the purpose in attending Church?

Maybe I’m just showing my age, but my efforts to live the second commandment would be made more difficult if I had to home Church for an extended period of time.

[Calm]

JLHProf, I am not eager to stay at home without the virus, but often make that choice to stay functional.  I may complain about certain things I enjoy avoiding when I stay at home (primarily the seating).
 

I think some may be misinterpreting enjoying certain parts of home church with rejecting everything about church as a community. 

Edited May 20, 2020 by Calm

[Scott Lloyd]

1 hour ago, The Nehor said:

There are only four ways out of this that I see.

1. Strict and absolute quarantine to kill it off. This would be three weeks everyone has no contact outside household with only base essentials working and minimize food deliveries. Medical care would have to function and treat who they can but by the end if it were enforced the virus would die off. Not really possibly politically or logistically at this point.

2. Quarantine to get numbers manageable as cases fall followed by vigorous contact tracing to contain outbreaks but I still do not see the resources needed to do that or the will to do that level of tracking. I was a little hopeful when the Texas governor talked about contact  tracing to stamp it out but the numbers are too high relative to the number of tests and you need a dedicated and large force to work the contact tracing. Also I have heard nothing about it since. Plus Americans would probably be terrible about accepting the need and complying with it. You would also have to enforce quarantines on anyone coming out of infection zones. You need an autocracy or a very dedicated population to make this work.

3. Loosen and strengthen restrictions as cases rise and fall to keep from overloading medical facilities and hope we can keep it contained from the vulnerable long enough that we get general herd immunity. This means about half the population would need antibodies to fight it off. This will only work if immunity works. If it does not this virus becomes endemic and maybe something we just have to live with until we have a vaccine assuming we can make a vaccine. I am not sure this will happen. Will we be willing to lose down again if it gets bad?

4. Do little to contain it. In this case you have to hope healthcare does not get overloaded. Virtually everyone gets it eventually but a lot of the vulnerable are dead. This maximizes the death toll so social security might last a few more years. If we get vaccine quickly it might not be too bad but I am not optimistic. Eventually it burns out if immunity holds. If not it becomes endemic and we have a Darwinian virus weeding out the vulnerable and elderly.

 

So far, you and Calm are the only ones I’ve encountered who insist It’s a settled matter that “everyone gets it eventually.” I’m still not convinced of that. 
 

And Social Security will last as long as there are workers paying into the system. It’s true that under present conditions, the trust fund is expected to dry up in 2035 or so, but that doesn’t mean Social Security goes away. The trust fund is decreasing because there are so many of the baby boom generation (whose contributions generated the trust fund in the first place) who are now in retirement and the accumulated excess (the trust fund) is being used up. If and when that’s gone, there will still be Social Security, but it will truly be pay-as-you-go then. Sometime between now and then, the trust fund can be shored up, but one (or both) of two things will have to happen: Benefits for the elderly  will be decreased or withholding from workers’ paychecks will increase.  
 

It’s like your home finances. If you’re using up your savings, you eventually have to either cut back your spending or increase your income (or both). 

Edited May 20, 2020 by Scott Lloyd

[The Nehor]

39 minutes ago, JLHPROF said:

Leaving aside the virus issues I am a little surprised at how many are saying they prefer staying home for Church.

It makes me wonder if I fully comprehend all the reasons the Church exists and my role in it.  I can't help feel if people prefer worshipping at home over building the Kingdom if Satan is winning just a little in all this.

I mean, what is the purpose in attending?

The most important work done in building the Kingdom is done in the home. I think many are finding it easier to have gospel experiences and teaching moments with their children in the home right now as many (but not all) of us have less to distract us. I think we should prefer and enjoy worshipping at home. The mantra of home based and church supported will not hold if the chapel is the center of our worship and instruction instead of a source of Priesthood keys, revelation, and supplemental help. At least until the patriarchal order comes back and then we may not need a chapel.  

[The Nehor]

9 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said:

So far, you and Calm are the only ones I’ve encountered who insist It’s a settled matter that “everyone gets it eventually.” I’m still not convinced of that.

This thing is so infectious I do not see a good chance of it ending until it is starved out through isolation (unlikely) or burns out by running out of targets or is stopped by a vaccine (possible) or cure (unlikely).

I was making a joke about Social Security so I will leave that alone.

Edited May 20, 2020 by The Nehor

[Rain]

2 hours ago, The Nehor said:

Those insisting it is too early may be jumping the gun. We do not even know which areas are opening. We had meetings tonight in Texas and most of the participants seem to think the church will not be opening here for a while. They are not making the decisions but I suspect this will be slower than people suspect.

It is like the people annoyed at BYU getting so much aid money relative to other schools and then finding out BYU refused it. It might be needless angst and there are enough real things to be angsty about already. 

My worry (the very little I have) comes more from knowing the people and leaders in my area - like my stake that brags we have the hardest trek they know of, has the theme of "give me a mountain" and , with a stake president that says in ward conference in Jan or Feb that he thinks we will soon see a day where we are guarding our church meetings with guns, visiting the elderly diabetics like I mentioned above and a lot of ward members facebook posting people wearing masks is similar to Muslim women being forced to covering their faces or telling us that covid was a made up conspiracy to win elections etc.  

I know it is supposed to come from the area presidency first, but that doesn't give me complete peace that things will happen here exactly as they should.

Edited May 20, 2020 by Rain

[Mayor Defacto]

I'm keen to go back ASAP. My former ward is in another state 3 hours from where I live now. If they open first I will drive there! 😁

[strappinglad]

I read that 2/3 of new cases in NYC are from people who were quarantined at home . I wonder what that says about the policy of quarantining . 

We are now seeing a fulfillment of the verse in D&C 121 to our sad experience. 

 

Rant stifled !!

[The Nehor]

8 minutes ago, strappinglad said:

I read that 2/3 of new cases in NYC are from people who were quarantined at home . I wonder what that says about the policy of quarantining . 

We are now seeing a fulfillment of the verse in D&C 121 to our sad experience. 

 

Rant stifled !!

That was a badly used statistic. It came from this graphic from a presentation in New York:

Basically all it showed was that 2/3rds of admissions came from people who lived at home. Most were supposed to be quarantined of course (at least from when the stay at home order went through) but they also included essential workers that had to work that lived at home. It was more then a bit of a stretch to say the graph shows that all of them were not essential workers and that all of them followed the quarantine rules.

Admittedly some probably did follow the rules and still got sick. They aren’t foolproof.

[Hamba Tuhan]

1 hour ago, JLHPROF said:

I am a little surprised at how many are saying they prefer staying home for Church.

Church at home has been sweet for me. One of my housemates is functionally illiterate, but because we are finally studying together at home, I am able to help him start to read and understand the scriptures. He can't sound out any word over four or five letters. We stop every time he comes to a word he doesn't know and discuss what it means until he gets it, then go back and put the concept into the phrase and discuss that, and then try to make the entire verse hold together. It's laborious but sweet. And it would never be happening in Sunday school or EQ.

I've served as a counsellor in two bishoprics. Both times it was my job to plan sacrament meetings. But not everyone gets that experience. I have loved once again planning through inspiration what we will learn/discuss/do, and I've loved getting my housemate involved as he's grown in confidence.

Before our Area Presidency temporarily halted it, we were allowed by our government to have a very small number of people join us in our homes. One of our ward members who struggles with addiction and related mental health issues found it much easier to come to mine. In addition, one of my non-member friends, who really struggles to attend church in a chapel (in part because he works nights) felt comfortable coming too. That was also sweet, and as soon as we have permission, I want to add those elements back into our home worship.

One of the families that I help to care for (and used to minister to formally) consists of a mum and four adult children. None of the kids has been active for years, but now they all attend church every Sunday because it's in their lounge room. Previously, I was able to help by providing access to the sacrament, and it was so sweet to see this mum lead her family in worship in a very tailored way.

It was unseasonably warm this past Sunday, so my housemate and I went for a two-hour walk to the top of the nearest hill (we call it a mountain) and back. On our return, we saw another family from our ward outside their house. They had just finished their home church service, though the sun was already setting. From a distance, they told us how sweet it has been because they are able to hold their service at a time that their not-very-active son-in-law can attend. (He works most of Sunday.) They also talked about how good it was to have the kids participating each week, seeking and obtaining inspiration in the planning, etc.

We ended up by concluding that we all want to go back to church in the chapel because we miss seeing, being with and strengthening each other, but we also don't want to lose all the goodness we've been able to create in our homes too. I hope we will know how to take that back with us! Two-thirds of all adults in the Church are single; for many of us, this has been a very lonely time too.

Edited May 20, 2020 by Hamba Tuhan

[The Nehor]

31 minutes ago, Rain said:

My worry (the very little I have) comes more from knowing the people and leaders in my area - like my stake that brags we have the hardest trek they know of, has the theme of "give me a mountain" and , with a stake president that says in ward conference in Jan or Feb that he thinks we will soon see a day where we are guarding our church meetings with guns, visiting the elderly diabetics like I mentioned above and a lot of ward members facebook posting people wearing masks in similar to Muslim women being forced to covering their faces or telling us that covid was a made up conspiracy to win elections etc.  

I know it is supposed to come from the area presidency first, but that doesn't give me complete peace that things will happen here exactly as they should.

If the Area Presidency does not authorize it do not attend.

[pogi]

1 hour ago, strappinglad said:

I read that 2/3 of new cases in NYC are from people who were quarantined at home . I wonder what that says about the policy of quarantining . 

It says it’s working!   Those are pretty good stats but I wish it was 3/3 of people. That would mean we had the virus completely contained on lockdown. The people on quarantine are close contacts of positive cases.  We don’t place people on quarantine to protect them from infection, rather we place them on quarantine for 2 weeks from their last contact with the index case (because there is a 2 week incubation period) to protect others.  If they become symptomatic while on quarantine, we place them on isolation, if they have no symptoms after the 2 week period, we release them from quarantine.  It’s not a perfect system because we can’t catch asymptomatic carriers, but they are less likely to spread the disease.

Who do you think is highest risk for infection?  Close contacts and household members on quarantine, of course.  That’s why they are on quarantine - to prevent community spread because they are high risk of infection.
 

If the numbers were reversed, if most new cases were not on quarantine, that would suggest the virus is out of control and someone has been doing a bad job at contact tracing.  Once a positive case is in a household, it is almost guaranteed to spread in the home no matter how well they try to isolate from family members.  Most new cases are household contacts on quarantine.  Quarantining limits it to the household.   We may not be able to prevent it from infecting household members, but we are significantly reducing community spread to only 1/3 of  new cases.

If we weren’t placing close contacts on quarantine,  we would see those same people becoming infected, but you would multiply that number by at least 3 or 4 on the very conservative end.

Edited May 20, 2020 by pogi

[Tacenda]

2 hours ago, JLHPROF said:

Leaving aside the virus issues I am a little surprised at how many are saying they prefer staying home for Church.

It makes me wonder if I fully comprehend all the reasons the Church exists and my role in it.  I can't help feel if people prefer worshipping at home over building the Kingdom if Satan is winning just a little in all this.

I mean, what is the purpose in attending Church?

https://www.businessinsider.com/cdc-arkansas-coronavirus-outbreak-linked-to-2-church-goers-2020-5

Well there is this article, the scary aspect. And for some, having home church is new, maybe it will wear off eventually. But many have found a sweet spot. I know some families that get up and get dressed in Sunday best, kids give talks, say prayers, they sing, and have Sacrament. It's very personal and families are probably closer now from doing it this way and the pandemic has caused a lot of people to take serious their faith in God. 

Have you ever seen how happy people are to stay home for conference? Sort of like that as well.

Edited May 20, 2020 by Tacenda

[Meadowchik]

5 hours ago, bsjkki said:

The problem with church is it is indoors and social distancing is difficult. Singing hymns is not the safest activity. My area will not be going back to church for quite awhile. I would prefer gloves to break bread and prepare the Sacrament. Interesting update on church issues with reopening. https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/498643-two-southern-churches-forced-to-reclose-after-leaders-and

I bet that some churches might have the opportunity to meet out of doors and it could be safer, especially with mask-wearing. Maybe some could try that.