100,000 Missionaries By 2019 - Elder Holland

[stemelbow]

A decline was expected after what they call "the surge" that resulted from President Monson announcing the age changes for missionary eligibility. But as it turned out, the post-surge decline was not nearly as steep as expected -- meaning more young people are going on missions now than would have been expected for this point in time.

 

See the link in my Post #3 in this thread. It's explained there.

I get that, but 5,000 dropped in one month's time is a 5.5% decrease. That seems pretty significant to me. What if from Jan to Feb there was another 5.5% decrease? What if in March another 5.5% decrease? We may still see the decline after the surge, yet to come. After all, no doubt when the age change was announced, many 19 year olds were already on missions. many 18 year olds were added to the ingoing 19 year olds, but perhaps many 18 year olds when the age change was announced waited until 19 because they already had plans. With young women, perhaps many 19,20, and 21 year olds left over the past two years. Not until we get it everyone more normalized with the age change will we be able to gauge the addition the age change caused.

Or maybe the time between December and January is an anomaly.

[Freedom]

All I know is that there are too many missionaries and nothing for them to do. We have wards with 4 sets of missionaries that have nothing to do. There needs to be fundamental shift in what it means to go on a mission. We need to take half of them off the streets and put them on service missions working in homeless shelters or in constructing housing. Although the number of investigators coming to church has doubled, the number of baptisms has remained the same but retention has dropped. 

[JLHPROF]

Christmas is secular?

Christmas in December is...

[Analytics]

Apparently Elder Holland predicted 100,000 missionaries serving by 2019...

 

http://www.sltrib.com/lifestyle/faith/2249417-155/lds-apostle-jeffrey-r-holland-predicts

 

Interesting; it's largely an issue of demographics and since Elder Holland has the inside information on this, I certainly wouldn't bet against him.

 

I think this means that a large part of the "surge" was permanent; quite a few people now choose to go who wouldn't have gone if they were required to wait another year or two before eligibility.

 

I wonder what the male/female mix will look like in 2019.

[mfbukowski]

Interesting; it's largely an issue of demographics and since Elder Holland has the inside information on this, I certainly wouldn't bet against him.

 

I think this means that a large part of the "surge" was permanent; quite a few people now choose to go who wouldn't have gone if they were required to wait another year or two before eligibility.

 

I wonder what the male/female mix will look like in 2019.

Based on my own totally subjective and non-statistical observations of new endowments on my shift in my temple, I can tell you that before the "surge" we were getting very few new missionary endowments.  During the surge, it went crazy- every week I worked we had two or three.  Now it has settled down to a solid average of about one per shift.  That is probably triple the "pre-surge" rate.

 

The world being what it is, I think what is happening is that the kids who are temple worthy active kids now pretty much ALL go on missions now, male or female.  OK not all, but what- 65-70%??   That would be my guess.

 

It's because the world is getting so polarized now, those who are luke-warm are cooling off and the active are getting MORE active.   Just my personal observation.

[mfbukowski]

All I know is that there are too many missionaries and nothing for them to do. We have wards with 4 sets of missionaries that have nothing to do. There needs to be fundamental shift in what it means to go on a mission. We need to take half of them off the streets and put them on service missions working in homeless shelters or in constructing housing. Although the number of investigators coming to church has doubled, the number of baptisms has remained the same but retention has dropped. 

No, it takes a major shift in what it means to be a member missionary.  We all need to learn to open our mouths.  But before that we need to learn how to teach secular people a gospel for their needs, and that is another story.

 

If your missionaries are sitting around, it is up to your ward to change that, not the missionaries.

[mfbukowski]

I get that, but 5,000 dropped in one month's time is a 5.5% decrease. That seems pretty significant to me. What if from Jan to Feb there was another 5.5% decrease? What if in March another 5.5% decrease? We may still see the decline after the surge, yet to come. After all, no doubt when the age change was announced, many 19 year olds were already on missions. many 18 year olds were added to the ingoing 19 year olds, but perhaps many 18 year olds when the age change was announced waited until 19 because they already had plans. With young women, perhaps many 19,20, and 21 year olds left over the past two years. Not until we get it everyone more normalized with the age change will we be able to gauge the addition the age change caused.

Or maybe the time between December and January is an anomaly.

 

We are getting to a point when the "early surgers" are getting off their missions.  Any surge leads to an eventual decline.  It has to!

Put a penny in a jar the first day, put two in the jar the next, four the next, etc.

 

Before long you will have a house full of pennies, and the day after that you would have two houses full of pennies. Then one day you would have two earths full of pennies.

 

The point is, trends don't continue forever.  They ebb and flow.

 

You can see that in the stock market among other places.  If stock market trends were constant, we would all be rich, or owing billions.

[stemelbow]

We are getting to a point when the "early surgers" are getting off their missions.  Any surge leads to an eventual decline.  It has to!

Put a penny in a jar the first day, put two in the jar the next, four the next, etc.

 

Before long you will have a house full of pennies, and the day after that you would have two houses full of pennies. Then one day you would have two earths full of pennies.

 

The point is, trends don't continue forever.  They ebb and flow.

 

You can see that in the stock market among other places.  If stock market trends were constant, we would all be rich, or owing billions.

The age change, i'm sure is working. More, as a percentage, young men and young women are going now, most likely. So even if it all settles down, we'll see a pretty significant increase overall from before the age change. Makes ya wonder why it took so long to make this change.

It looks like we're going to have see some pretty dramatic changes in order to reach 100,000 by 2019.

[Scott Lloyd]

This comment hurts my brain!

I should have said I don't doubt it will occur.

A double negative is definitely easier to mentally navigate than a triple negative.

 

But no problem. Thanks for the brain teaser. It was a fun exercise.

 

And just so you know, I just now started the clock on Elder Holland's prediction. I'm giving it an even four years.

Edited March 5, 2015 by Scott Lloyd

[Scott Lloyd]

I get that, but 5,000 dropped in one month's time is a 5.5% decrease. That seems pretty significant to me. What if from Jan to Feb there was another 5.5% decrease? What if in March another 5.5% decrease? We may still see the decline after the surge, yet to come. After all, no doubt when the age change was announced, many 19 year olds were already on missions. many 18 year olds were added to the ingoing 19 year olds, but perhaps many 18 year olds when the age change was announced waited until 19 because they already had plans. With young women, perhaps many 19,20, and 21 year olds left over the past two years. Not until we get it everyone more normalized with the age change will we be able to gauge the addition the age change caused.

Or maybe the time between December and January is an anomaly.

I'm still not sure you fully grasp it.

 

The age change immediately put an extra year's or nearly an extra year's worth of male missionaries into the force as those between the ages of 18 and 19 were suddenly eligible to go and many of them did go, even as those who were turning 19 were going.

 

Likewise, the age change immediately put an extra two years' worth of female missionaries into the force as their age of eligibility was lowered from 21 to 19.

 

As soon as this surge had time to move through the pipeline and things normalized, the number of missionaries was bound to decrease as quickly as it had risen. Thing is, the decrease was not nearly as much as the folks in the Missionary Department had anticipated -- which means a net increase in the number of young people willing to serve missions who might not have served otherwise.

 

And now, Elder Holland reportedly believes the momentum is such that the total will hit 100,000 by 2019.

 

Time will tell.

Edited March 5, 2015 by Scott Lloyd

[Tacenda]

No problem. Thanks for the brain teaser. It was a fun exercise.

 

And just so you know, I just now started the clock on Elder Holland's prediction. I'm giving it an even four years.

Now you know the inner workings of my brain.  

[stemelbow]

I'm still not sure you fully grasp it.

 

The age change immediately put an extra year's or nearly an extra year's worth of male missionaries into the force as those between the ages of 18 and 19 were suddenly eligible to go and many of them did go, even as those who were turning 19 were going.

 

Likewise, the age change immediately put an extra two years' worth of female missionaries into the force as their age of eligibility was lowered from 21 to 19.

 

As soon as this surge had time to move through the pipeline, the number of missionaries was bound to decrease as quickly as it had risen. Thing is, the decrease was not nearly as much as the folks in the Missionary Department had anticipated -- which means in a net increase in the number of young people willing to serve missions who might not have served otherwise.

 

And now, Elder Holland reportedly believes the momentum is such that the total will hit 100,000 by 2019.

 

Time will tell.

I think it get that. But it was not as if once the announcement all 18 and 19 year old young men left. Some 18 year olds, no doubt, waited for a year, because they had already plans in order to go in a year. So there's overlap in that sense. Many 18 year old left in 2013 and many 19 year olds. Many 18 year olds left in 2014 and many 19 year olds. how many in each category? Not sure. the same with young women. In 2013 many 19 year olds went, as did many 20 and 21 year olds. In 2014 many 19, 20, and 21 year olds left again. And in 2015 perhaps quite a few 19, 20, and 21 year olds are going again. As of now, many of missionaries out left at 19 and many left at 18 for men. Many missionaries sisters left at 19, many at 20, and perhaps fewer at 21.

I will say though, no doubt, the age change will still prove an increase. How much? I don't think we can gauge that. But it seems Holland knows something I don't.

[Scott Lloyd]

No, it takes a major shift in what it means to be a member missionary.  We all need to learn to open our mouths.  But before that we need to learn how to teach secular people a gospel for their needs, and that is another story.

 

If your missionaries are sitting around, it is up to your ward to change that, not the missionaries.

I don't know about teaching a separate "gospel" for "secular people," but I agree a change in mindset is in order.

 

Instead of fretting about where to put all those missionaries, we need to embrace this new challenge with enthusiasm and anticipate the good that can be accomplished.

 

It's hard work to change people's minds to the point they will humble themselves and seek a spiritual witness through the Spirit. The more hands to accomplish that work, the better. Especially in this day and age, as Satan seems to be working overtime, what with the rapid redefinition of marriage in society and the resultant blurring of the definition of the family.

[Scott Lloyd]

I think it get that. But it was not as if once the announcement all 18 and 19 year old young men left. Some 18 year olds, no doubt, waited for a year, because they had already plans in order to go in a year. So there's overlap in that sense. Many 18 year old left in 2013 and many 19 year olds. Many 18 year olds left in 2014 and many 19 year olds. how many in each category? Not sure. the same with young women. In 2013 many 19 year olds went, as did many 20 and 21 year olds. In 2014 many 19, 20, and 21 year olds left again. And in 2015 perhaps quite a few 19, 20, and 21 year olds are going again. As of now, many of missionaries out left at 19 and many left at 18 for men. Many missionaries sisters left at 19, many at 20, and perhaps fewer at 21.

I will say though, no doubt, the age change will still prove an increase. How much? I don't think we can gauge that. But it seems Holland knows something I don't.

Maybe they all didn't leave at once. But many of them left very soon -- so much so that the Church had to immediately create a whole slew of new missions. When my colleagues and I covered the next Seminar for New Mission Presidents at the Provo MTC, it was so crowded there wasn't room for us to sit in the main room; we had to sit in overflow rooms. That has never happened before.

 

And the Missionary Department folks had the numbers all worked out in their prognostications. And the flow can be controlled by when the calls are issued. Thus, they can pretty well figure on when the post-surge period will transpire.

 

But as I said, they were surprised when the total didn't go down as far as they thought it would. That is what may be driving Elder Holland's prognostication. And he is on the Missionary Executive Committee, so I'm sure all these factors and circumstances are constantly before him and he's closer to the scene than you, I, or any outside observer.

Edited March 5, 2015 by Scott Lloyd

[Yirgacheffe]

Christmas in December is...

So is a Sunday sabbath

[MormonFreeThinker]

Apparently Elder Holland predicted 100,000 missionaries serving by 2019...

 

http://www.sltrib.com/lifestyle/faith/2249417-155/lds-apostle-jeffrey-r-holland-predicts

 

I learned that numbers are not a goal of the church, 100,000 missionaries is not a lot.  

 

Jehovah's Witnesses report an average membership of approximately 7.86 million actively involved in preaching. 

 

The purpose of the church is to perfect the lives of the few LDS converts in the world.  

 

Matthew 7:13 For the gate is small and the way is narrow that leads to life, and there are few who find it.

Edited March 6, 2015 by MormonFreeThinker

[Duncan]

oh man! wards here have 6 missionaries in each unit, some have more! BUT we neeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeed more sisters!!!!! like really badly! Ideally the Mission President here wants to have a set of elders and sisters in each ward and a set of elders in branch. I don't know the demographics of this mission but hopefully they can achieve that

[Avatar4321]

Interesting development. I wonder when we will reach 144,000

[Robert F. Smith]

With tracting on the decline and only member referrals etc what on earth will they do all day?

........................................................................   

Old fashioned tracting door to door was always horribly inefficient, and has largely been replaced not only by member referrals and ward council assignments, but also by self-referral on the internet, and teaching on Skype.  Moreover, a lot of missionaries keep busy by showing up outside the many venues of "The Book of Mormon" musical and telling showgoers that "You've seen the show, now read the book."

[JLHPROF]

Interesting development. I wonder when we will reach 144,000

 

They aren't Elders.  They are High Priests (who have been sealed in their foreheads - Calling and Election).

 

If we assume 6000 years to call them out of all dispensations that works out to about one every two weeks.

[Freedom]

No, it takes a major shift in what it means to be a member missionary.  We all need to learn to open our mouths.  But before that we need to learn how to teach secular people a gospel for their needs, and that is another story.

 

If your missionaries are sitting around, it is up to your ward to change that, not the missionaries.

and keep 4 sets busy? It just is not possible. We have a very effective ward and I talk to a lot of people. There just are not that many people who are ready. 

[mfbukowski]

I don't know about teaching a separate "gospel" for "secular people," but I agree a change in mindset is in order.

 

Instead of fretting about where to put all those missionaries, we need to embrace this new challenge with enthusiasm and anticipate the good that can be accomplished.

 

It's hard work to change people's minds to the point they will humble themselves and seek a spiritual witness through the Spirit. The more hands to accomplish that work, the better. Especially in this day and age, as Satan seems to be working overtime, what with the rapid redefinition of marriage in society and the resultant blurring of the definition of the family.

I never said anything about a "separate gospel"- the gospel we have is perfectly compatible with theistic humanism

 

This is what I was talking about:

At the same time, Mormon conceptions of a human nature unencumbered by original sin or inherited depravity comport perfectly with the nineteenth-century zenith of liberal humanism, with its celebration of human potential, sense of boundlessness, and Romantic optimism.

Givens, Terryl L. (2014-09-19). Wrestling the Angel: The Foundations of Mormon Thought: Cosmos, God, Humanity (p. 191). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition

 

.Wouldn't it be great if people started joining the church because they understood that we believe that human potential is endless and because they wanted to become all they could possibly become?

 

Remember we do worship a God, the Man of Holiness, who is indeed the same "species" we are, yet infinitely more perfected than we are.

 

Indeed that is precisely what separates our gospel from creedal christians.   That is the only sense in which we have a separate gospel.That is what I was talking about,

 

We don't know our own potential as a church to  appeal to theistic humanists.

Edited March 6, 2015 by mfbukowski

[mfbukowski]

I don't know about teaching a separate "gospel" for "secular people," but I agree a change in mindset is in order.

 

Instead of fretting about where to put all those missionaries, we need to embrace this new challenge with enthusiasm and anticipate the good that can be accomplished.

 

It's hard work to change people's minds to the point they will humble themselves and seek a spiritual witness through the Spirit. The more hands to accomplish that work, the better. Especially in this day and age, as Satan seems to be working overtime, what with the rapid redefinition of marriage in society and the resultant blurring of the definition of the family.

It seems that people have totally misunderstood that the purpose of marriage is not about loving anyone you feel like loving- it is of course about love, but it is about the uniting of opposites as well and learning that men and women are complimentary, and it is our responsibility to learn about and make peace with the opposite sex.  We complete each other.  Same sex marriage completely ignores that aspect of the doctrine and that doctrine is totally basic to our beliefs

 

And I am not making this up-  just google it.  https://www.google.com/search?q=lds+men+women+complete+eachother&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8

 

Without this understanding, we will never fulfill our fullest potential, the "measure of our creation, and have joy therein"

 

To be fully human is to be divine and also to understand all of humanity- male AND female.

Edited March 6, 2015 by mfbukowski

[mfbukowski]

and keep 4 sets busy? It just is not possible. We have a very effective ward and I talk to a lot of people. There just are not that many people who are ready. 

So get them ready.

 

We keep 4 sets busy so it is possible. We have a hybrid ward that is actually two wards, one English, one Spanish, and all the youth meet together as if it was one ward.

 

If you have 87 people in your ward, it might not be possible, but don't make blanket statements that cannot be supported.  It all depends on demographics and hard work. 

 

Somebody decided there was potential there- take it up with whoever made the assignments, and sustain them in their calling and try to see the potential they saw instead of complaining about what you can't do or your limited view of what is "possible".

Edited March 6, 2015 by mfbukowski

[Avatar4321]

and keep 4 sets busy? It just is not possible. We have a very effective ward and I talk to a lot of people. There just are not that many people who are ready.

And why do you presume the Lord cannot prepare people?