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100,000 Missionaries By 2019 - Elder Holland


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With tracting on the decline and only member referrals etc what on earth will they do all day?

 

I must have missed the "90,000" number hitting.  I thought we were still around 60,000...

 

What's really amazing is the 100,000 WAS the total Church membership in 1872.

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On the other hand, we have Mike Reed predicting that the number of missionaries will fall "within the next two or three years."

 

Although, when I pressed him, he said he didn't know how far it would fall.

 

By the way, I have a clock running on Mike's prediction. As of this moment, there are 1 year, 10 months, 5 days, 5 hours 13 minutes and 20 seconds left to go in his predicted two-year span.

 

Ill be sure to revisit this on Monday, Jan. 9, 2017, when the two years are up.

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On the other hand, we have Mike Reed predicting that the number of missionaries will fall "within the next two or three years."

Although, when I pressed him, he said he didn't know how far it would fall.

By the way, I have a clock running on Mike's prediction. As of this moment, there are 1 year, 10 months, 5 days, 5 hours 13 minutes and 20 seconds left to go in his predicted two-year span.

Ill be sure to revisit this on Monday, Jan. 9, 2017, when the two years are up.

This isn't the only clock you got running. ;)
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This isn't the only clock you got running. ;)

Very true.

 

And thank you for bringing that up. It gives me a chance to say that the OP, Rockpond will be interested to know that as of this moment, there are 39 years, 11 months, 6 days, 5 hours, and 17 minutes left to go before the deadline in his prediciton of 40 years before the leadership of the Church caves in to the dictates of society and begins to allow temple sealings for gay "marriage."

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Do they count the older couples who go out on service missions?  I think more are going out now that there is such a variety of assignments and locations available.  

I don't believe they do. I think these are just people -- younger elders and sisters and senior couples -- that are called to proselyting missions.

 

The Missionary Department does not track Church service volunteers. They come under a separate department.

Edited by Scott Lloyd
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So from December to January the number of missionaries dropped 5,000 and it was holding steady at 85,000 in January? I don't get what she's saying there.

Apostles and prophets don't make predictions like this any more--must know something.

Edited by stemelbow
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So from December to January the number of missionaries dropped 5,000 and it was holding steady at 85,000 in January? I don't get what she's saying there.

Apostles and prophets don't make predictions like this any more--must know something.

A decline was expected after what they call "the surge" that resulted from President Monson announcing the age changes for missionary eligibility. But as it turned out, the post-surge decline was not nearly as steep as expected -- meaning more young people are going on missions now than would have been expected for this point in time.

 

See the link in my Post #3 in this thread. It's explained there.

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On the other hand, we have Mike Reed predicting that the number of missionaries will fall "within the next two or three years."

 

Although, when I pressed him, he said he didn't know how far it would fall.

 

By the way, I have a clock running on Mike's prediction. As of this moment, there are 1 year, 10 months, 5 days, 5 hours 13 minutes and 20 seconds left to go in his predicted two-year span.

 

Ill be sure to revisit this on Monday, Jan. 9, 2017, when the two years are up.

 

Well, given that it seems to have fallen a bit, coupled with his statement that he didn't know how far it would fall, seems like his prediction was tecnhically correct.

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Well, given that it seems to have fallen a bit, coupled with his statement that he didn't know how far it would fall, seems like his prediction was tecnhically correct.

It had already been pointed out in the thread that the number having "fallen a bit" after the surge was entirely foregone. The remarkable thing is that it has not fallen nearly as much as expected. So, if that's the only point he was making, he was predicting what has already happened and had already been anticipated.

 

When I asked him how much he thought it would fall, and he said he didn't know, I then pointed out that his prediction was not very meaningful. If it falls back down to pre-2012 levels, that will mean the change in missionary ages was a waste of time. If it doesn't, then it can be reasoned that the age change had a beneficial effect.

 

I started the clock running anyway, as he seemed initially to be implying that the age change in the long run won't make much difference. If what Elder Holland is predicting comes true, it will not only have made a difference but made a historic difference.

Edited by Scott Lloyd
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With tracting on the decline and only member referrals etc what on earth will they do all day?

 

I must have missed the "90,000" number hitting.  I thought we were still around 60,000...

 

What's really amazing is the 100,000 WAS the total Church membership in 1872.

Service Projects, it introduces more people to the Gospel in action.

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Service Projects, it introduces more people to the Gospel in action.

Bye Bye suits and nametags.  Hello workclothes!

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Here's a graph I made showing the historical numbers of missionaries called over the past 30 years. The number of missionaries reported for January 2015 is about 85000. The numbers of missionaries called between 2013 and 2015 increases about 1000 more per year. To make it to 100,000 by 2019 there would have to be about 3000 per year more called. 

 

missionaries.jpg

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I think this could be added to the clock running catalog. Be sure to refer to it in 2019. And I don't doubt it won't occur.

"Don't doubt it won't occur" is a triple negative. I'm trying to calculate the meaning in my mind, but I never was very good at math.

Let's see: To doubt it won't occur would mean you think it will occur. But if you don't doubt it won't occur, that would mean you think it won't occur.

Or, to express it mathematically, a negative times a negative is a positive. But a negative times a negative times a negative is a negative.

It's like a toggle switch. Each negative reverses the operation of the negative before it.

 

Thus:

 

Let x represent "will occur."

 

"Won't occur" would be -x.

 

"Doubt it won't occur" would be -(-x).

 

And "don't doubt it won't occur would be expressed as -(-[-x]).

 

So:

 

-(-[-x]) = -x.

 

How did I do?

Edited by Scott Lloyd
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"Don't doubt it won't occur" is a triple negative. I'm trying to calculate the meaning in my mind, but I never was very good at math.

Let's see: To doubt it won't occur would mean you think it will occur. But if you don't doubt it won't occur, that would mean you think it won't occur.

Or, to express it mathematically, a negative times a negative is a positive. But a negative times a negative times a negative is a negative.

It's like a toggle switch. Each negative reverses the operation of the negative before it.

How did I do?

This comment hurts my brain! ;)

I should have said I don't doubt it will occur.

Edited by Tacenda
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