Covid III: Delta Force

[Calm]

Please stay focused on the medical information and take political, economic, and morality discussions elsewhere. I am not going to report anyone for adding a judgmental comment here and there, when it is personal and it is getting personal for all of for many reasons, not just medical, but please try not to make series of posts in that tone, including accusations of death cults to virtue signaling and anything between, behind, or around.

If using an article for data that has a lot of political or other commentary, please quote the relevant data to avoid people assuming you are using it for something else.  I know it is hard to avoid it in the media and even the medical summaries often include judgmental, nonmedical issue comments. 
 

Also note that much discussion is about providing up to date info, even though research takes time. Please pay attention to if someone is talking about Delta or another specific variant and provide rebuttal info on the variant being discussed or at least note you can’t find data for the variant and are using the best you can find. Recognize as well that this may not meet someone’s CFR and please don’t act like it does if you put in 5 minutes of search time but can’t find variant specific details.  And in return those asking for Delta or other variant info, please don’t be indignant if such is not given, though feel free to say a CFR has not been met. 
 

If you believe a CFR is frivolous, please report it, but don’t assume that most CFRs on these threads are. I know several of us are working hard to get educated on this and it can be harder if someone offers paraphrases and not the studies to judge how studies should be applied. 
 

And remember that a lot of studies are happening in difficult environments and therefore aren’t ideal, whether small in numbers or too many uncontrolled variables.  Don’t assume someone is being lazy or trying to deceive because a study isn’t that great. Otoh, please use medical sources as much as possible to avoid political slants in reporting (not that medical journals are exempt) 

Info on effectiveness of masks and discussion on that is welcomed as before, but avoid accusing others in how they are using them please.

I might add additional cautions if I see the need. Really the only difference from previous threads in this thread is the variant issue…don’t assume studies of Covid in general are the same as studies of the variants. 
 

And to kick it off, here is my link to a highly rated KN95 mask.  They also come in kids’ size and are reasonably priced Imo. Amazon has issues with counterfeits. This company and the mask has been evaluated by Consumer Labs and I have seen a number of articles about them. I will shortly be receiving my own order and will report on it. 
 

https://bonafidemasks.com/Powecom-kn-95/

They have a headband style too which is recommended more effective.  Don’t know why it wasn’t linked to by consumer labs…maybe it was. Since I am the only one in the family who prefers them, I think I will buy some and keep them for my private stock unless I can convince them the hassle is worth it. 

Edited August 7, 2021 by Calm

[bsjkki]

Interesting stats out of San Francisco and their 3rd Delta wave in comparison to others. The 76% vaccinated is residents with only 1 dose. 70 percent with two. Stats from data.sforg.gov
 

Also, San Francisco is seeing cases of a new variant called Delta plus. They don’t know much about it yet. 

https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2021/08/06/delta-plus-covid-variant-detected-san-francisco-bay-area/

Edited August 7, 2021 by bsjkki

[Hamba Tuhan]

Repeated from the past thread in case anyone wishes to discuss:

Delphine Planas et al., 'Reduced Sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2 Variant Delta to Antibody Neutralization', Nature, 8 July 2021.

It's all lab based, but the outcomes are significant:

• Antibodies sourced from people previously infected with a non-Delta variant but unvaccinated have almost no effect against Delta.
• Antibodies sourced from people who haven't been infected and who have had just one jab of a two-jab vaccine have little effect against Delta.
• Giving previously infected people a single jab of a two-jab vaccine significantly improves the effect of their antibodies against Delta in vitro.
• The best antibodies (again, in vitro) come from those who have received both jabs of a two-jab vaccine.

If this translates at all to the real world, it basically guts the concept of 'natural immunity' from other variants providing protection against Delta.

[Hamba Tuhan]

And out of Australia today comes this: ‘Why Delta COVID-19 variant could put younger people at risk of deadly cardiac complications‘. Some excerpts:

‘While earlier strains of the virus were most deadly among the elderly, Professor Jason Kovacic, from Sydney's Victor Chang Cardiac Research Institute, said there was evidence to suggest Delta was different’.

’A teenager, three people in their 20s, and four people in their 30s are among the Delta patients in NSW's intensive care unit’.

’A recent study on COVID-19 associated cardiac problems in young people found myocarditis was diagnosed in around 450 cases out of 1 million’.

’"This virus causes horrible, horrible blood clots," Professor Doherty said.

‘"I suspect that's what these acute deaths in young people are, they are probably blood clots and they are having heart attacks or strokes”’.

 

Edited August 7, 2021 by Hamba Tuhan

[cinepro]

2 hours ago, bsjkki said:

Also, San Francisco is seeing cases of a new variant called Delta plus. They don’t much about it yet. 

https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2021/08/06/delta-plus-covid-variant-detected-san-francisco-bay-area/

That new variant was detected in Santa Clara (south of SF), and they have 85% of >12yo vaxxed with one dose, and 79.3% with two doses. Those are some of the highest numbers in the nation.

https://covid19.sccgov.org/dashboard-vaccinations

If we're saying we need communities to exceed those numbers in order to end this, then we need to figure out what plan B is because we're not getting past 80% fully vaxed in most counties any time soon.  Vermont, the top state, only has 68% fully vaxxed.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html

Edited August 7, 2021 by cinepro

[bluebell]

1 minute ago, cinepro said:

That new variant was detected in Santa Clara (south of SF), and they have 85% of >12yo vaxxed with one dose, and 79.3% with two doses. Those are some of the highest numbers in the nation.

https://covid19.sccgov.org/dashboard-vaccinations

If we're saying we need communities to exceed those numbers, then we need to figure out what plan B is because we're not getting past 80% fully vaxed in most counties any time soon.  Vermont, the top state, only has 68% fully vaxxed.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html

I have less friends being willing to get the vaccine now that they are starting to bring mask mandates/requests back (in stores and at work, etc.).  For them, the only reason to get the vaccine was to keep from having to wear a mask.  Take that away and the there's a good chance (especially in some areas) that vaccine rates will go down.

[bsjkki]

https://apnews.com/article/science-health-coronavirus-pandemic-ad52011f4ca1853fad6eee41a7310c2e
 

 

 

[Ipod Touch]

13 minutes ago, bluebell said:

I have less friends being willing to get the vaccine now that they are starting to bring mask mandates/requests back (in stores and at work, etc.).  For them, the only reason to get the vaccine was to keep from having to wear a mask.  Take that away and the there's a good chance (especially in some areas) that vaccine rates will go down.

I have similar friends.  Plus with all the "breakthrough" infections of people who have been vaxxed have some folks saying "why bother?"  I just tell people that yep I'm vaxxed and I still got Covid.  But I was only sick like with the flu for a couple of days.  Without the vax, it probably would have been much worse.

[Kenngo1969]

https://www.deseret.com/coronavirus/2021/8/6/22611905/different-delta-variant-symptoms

[Kenngo1969]

https://www.deseret.com/2021/8/6/22612929/worst-delta-variant-covid-outbreaks-in-the-world-us-georgia-indonesia-botswana-cuba

[Tacenda]

9 hours ago, Kenngo1969 said:

https://www.deseret.com/2021/8/6/22612929/worst-delta-variant-covid-outbreaks-in-the-world-us-georgia-indonesia-botswana-cuba

My son and daughter in law are going to Croatia, Slovenia, Switzerland, and Italy for two months this coming week. I was holding my breath reading over the stats and lo and behold they'll be safer than here in the US. The only worry now, is if these countries will allow any US people in places since we're so bad. 

BTW: They both quit their jobs, son was injured at his plumber job and DIL finished out her first year as a Junior High art teacher with  7 classes with different students in each that were from h e double tooth pick. So they are taking a break. 

[The Nehor]

11 minutes ago, Tacenda said:

My son and daughter in law are going to Croatia, Slovenia, Switzerland, and Italy for two months this coming week. I was holding my breath reading over the stats and lo and behold they'll be safer than here in the US. The only worry now, is if these countries will allow any US people in places since we're so bad. 

BTW: They both quit their jobs, son was injured at his plumber job and DIL finished out her first year as a Junior High art teacher with  7 classes with different students in each that were from h e double tooth pick. So they are taking a break. 

Have they looked into it? Many countries are doing tests and quarantines. Others just test.

[Rain]

7 minutes ago, Tacenda said:

My son and daughter in law are going to Croatia, Slovenia, Switzerland, and Italy for two months this coming week. I was holding my breath reading over the stats and lo and behold they'll be safer than here in the US. The only worry now, is if these countries will allow any US people in places since we're so bad. 

BTW: They both quit their jobs, son was injured at his plumber job and DIL finished out her first year as a Junior High art teacher with  7 classes with different students in each that were from h e double tooth pick. So they are taking a break. 

Many of the European countries are letting us in with vaccination or negative covid tests. The US requires the negative covid tests regardless if you have been vaccinated or not - something several European countries are not happy about - they let vaxed in without test, but we don't. 

[Tacenda]

24 minutes ago, The Nehor said:

Have they looked into it? Many countries are doing tests and quarantines. Others just test.

Yes, and I guess things are evolving and they will hope for the best.

[The Nehor]

1 hour ago, Rain said:

Many of the European countries are letting us in with vaccination or negative covid tests. The US requires the negative covid tests regardless if you have been vaccinated or not - something several European countries are not happy about - they let vaxed in without test, but we don't. 

I think the US approach is better. Testing has gotten pretty quick and we have seen enough breakthrough cases now to want to catch someone contagious coming in.

[Bernard Gui]

20 hours ago, Calm said:

And to kick it off, here is my link to a highly rated KN95 mask.  They also come in kids’ size and are reasonably priced Imo. Amazon has issues with counterfeits. This company and the mask has been evaluated by Consumer Labs and I have seen a number of articles about them. I will shortly be receiving my own order and will report on it. 
 

https://bonafidemasks.com/Powecom-kn-95/

They have a headband style too which is recommended more effective.  Don’t know why it wasn’t linked to by consumer labs…maybe it was. Since I am the only one in the family who prefers them, I think I will buy some and keep them for my private stock unless I can convince them the hassle is worth it. 

It’s not just Amazon. It’s Chinese counterfeits that are being imported unknowingly.

And just last week I went in for a physical exam, and my doctor pointed to his surgical mask and said, “You know these are worthless, right? Airborne viruses slip through these with ease.”

I’m thinking if masks were somewhat effective against the first corona virus, then they would be much less effective against the delta variant because infected people can have up to 1000 times the viral load. Maybe I am wrong.

Does anyone follow all the official mask guidelines?

Be sure to wash your hands or use hand sanitizer before putting on a mask.

Do NOT touch the mask when wearing it. If you have to often touch/adjust your mask, it doesn’t fit you properly, and you may need to find a different mask or make adjustments. 

Carefully untie the strings behind your head or stretch the ear loops

Handle only by the ear loops or ties

Fold the outside corners together

Be careful not to touch your eyes, nose, and mouth when removing and wash hands immediately after removing

Foggy glasses indicate that a mask is not worn properly

If you accidentally touch your mask, wash or sanitize your hands.

WEAR A MASK THAT…

Covers your nose and mouth and secure it under your chin. Fits snugly against the sides of your face…Cloth masks and surgical masks do not provide an airtight fit across the side of your face 

DO NOT WEAR…

Neck gaiters or bandanas

If mask is wet or dirty

Around your neck

On your forehead

Under your nose

Only on your nose

On your chin

Dangling from one ear

On your arm

Reusable masks should be washed whenever it gets dirty or at least daily. If you have a disposable face mask, throw it away after wearing it once. Always and wash your hands after handling or touching a used mask. Face shields are not as effective as masks.

If you are taking off your mask to eat or drink outside of your home, you can place it somewhere safe to keep it clean, such as your pocket, purse, or paper bag. Make sure to wash or sanitize your hands after removing your mask. After eating, put the mask back on with the same side facing out. Be sure to wash or sanitize your hands again after putting your mask back on.

An interesting article about mask usage from a non-conforming point of view…

https://www.aier.org/article/medical-journal-warns-about-maskss-potentially-devastating-consequences/

 

It’s all a mask of confusion.

Edited August 7, 2021 by Bernard Gui

[Calm]

2 hours ago, Bernard Gui said:

You know these are worthless,

 

2 hours ago, Bernard Gui said:

I’m thinking if masks were somewhat effective against the first corona virus, then they would be much less effective against the delta variant because infected people can have up to 1000 times the viral load. Maybe I am wrong.

No, they are not worthless, but yes, they are less effective and possibly much less effective. This can in part be counteracted by getting the higher quality masks, but works best as always in conjunction with other efforts…just like weight loss works better if it involved more than just counting calories, just like success in school performance needs more than just studying or access to decent textbooks or even a great teacher.

added:  this is a thorough treatment of masks, while it still uses the CDC recommendations as the minimum standard, it adds other info and commentary from infectious disease experts:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/2021/08/02/covid-mask-guidelines-faq/

  I do have concerns with people believing they are more effective than they are. I wish the media would include what they do now generally for articles about suicide and put in a little standard info blurb with links for further information.  That approach shows it is possible to be much more consistent even across a variety of sources. 
 

I have already seen and expect to see much more advice to use cloth masks if that is all you have, but upgrade to kn95 at least when possible.  I have seen comments about if you can smell smoke, change your mask. 
 

But one doesn’t need perfect adherence to guidelines to make a difference. The more adherence, the more effectiveness of course. 
 

PS:  if someone wants to debate cost/benefits on whether the difference masks used less effectively is worth it, please start another thread. 

Edited August 7, 2021 by Calm

[juliann]

https://www.nbcnews.com/specials/data-shows-how-rare-severe-breakthrough-covid-infections-are/index.html

Quote

Concern about breakthrough Covid cases may be increasing, but data from two dozen states suggests that during the first half of this year, a fully vaccinated  person had a higher probability of getting accidentally electrocuted than of developing severe coronavirus symptoms.

 

[cinepro]

2 hours ago, Bernard Gui said:

I’m thinking if masks were somewhat effective against the first corona virus, then they would be much less effective against the delta variant because infected people can have up to 1000 times the viral load. Maybe I am wrong.

I spend so much time in LDS-centric forums that honestly I think a lot of it is the perspective of people living in Utah and other states that are perceived to have low-masking. They tell themselves that if only more people would have worn masks, things would have been okay.

I'm in Los Angeles, so I have the opposite experience. Everywhere I went, everyone was wearing masks but our case numbers still went off the charts. Even right now, we've had a mask mandate for 3 weeks and our cases are rising as quickly as in other nearby non-mask counties.

So I'm at the point where I believe masks could work, and I believe they should work, but in looking at the real-world data, I'm not convinced they do work. And the longer this goes on (and the more data that comes in), the more the pro-mask crowd sound like people that made up their minds in April of 2020 and are determined to maintain their belief in masks no matter what the data says. I understand the psychological forces at play, but it's odd that they still insist they're being scientific.

And then there's the mystery raised by Bernard Gui. Even with high rates of masking, we saw massive winter spikes. Hawaii (with high masking) is seeing one right now. But now we're told there's a new more highly contagious variant and the way to stop or impede it is...to do the same thing that didn't stop the less contagious version?

To Defeat Delta Variant, Experts Recommend Doing All The Things That Didn't Work The First Time

 

Edited August 7, 2021 by cinepro

[Metis_LDS]

I am not in the USA.  I scan newspapers online pretty much everyday in the UK, the USA and Canada.  It is my own experience that if you see an article about Covid then you just need to wait a few days or a week for an other article that will contradict the first.   Based on everyting I have read in the news about Covid I am confused and no longer trust anything I read.  This is a warning for the future.  Science had better get their ducks in a row and develop world class test for what is airborne and what is not airborne with solid proof.  If Covid had been worst we would have seen the breakdown of society even in the western world.  Here in the UK it almost caused the breakdown of the public healthcare system.

Edited August 7, 2021 by Metis_LDS
clarity

[Calm]

8 minutes ago, juliann said:

https://www.nbcnews.com/specials/data-shows-how-rare-severe-breakthrough-covid-infections-are/index.html

 

The Provincetown case is very useful because it was so quickly tracked and those infected or in contact with those infected were very open and willing to work with the medical community by sharing thorough life details. 
 

So there was a significant leap in understanding due to the quickness and depth of info that was available. 
 

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/08/06/1025553638/how-a-gay-community-helped-the-cdc-spot-a-covid-outbreak-and-learn-more-about-de

It also shows imo that if vaccinated, one is highly safe oneself (except for the higher end of vulnerable as always unfortunately) as the link Juliann posted shows. 
 

Provincetown also shows that vaccinations are not enough to prevent transmission without any other change of behaviour, but don’t jump to barricading oneself in one’s house. From descriptions of the event, they were in very packed and very intimate indoor settings and that is why it was a superspreader event. Provincetown had family friendly stuff going on from the in person reporting I read, even if mostly known for being an LGBT over the top fun (think spring break) gathering place, but since the significant majority of those infected were from the gay community indicates to me it was the gay inclusive settings that spread the virus…which could also happen in any other setting that encouraged up close and personal in crowds.
 

I hope people don’t see the high number of infected as a reason to panic about any social interaction because the info does not support that with either severity of illness or venues of high transmission rates. 
 

 Instead it supports avoiding indoor gatherings of significant size and time. When you can’t for some reason, social distance and wear a high quality mask.   
 

Which works well with one of my top rules for life:  Avoid crowds whenever possible at almost all costs. Love the fact I don’t have to feel antisocial anymore and can view myself as ahead of my times instead.   

[Calm]

1 hour ago, The Nehor said:

So the lower vaccination rates in red districts are due….

Another thread Nehor…please delete. 

[Calm]

1 hour ago, Tacenda said:

Well at least check the facts:

Please delete, Tacenda. 

Edited August 7, 2021 by Calm

[The Nehor]

4 minutes ago, Calm said:

Another thread Nehor…please delete. 

Doh! Sorry. Edited it to remove all politics.

[Ipod Touch]

32 minutes ago, cinepro said:

I'm in Los Angeles, so I have the opposite experience. Everywhere I went, everyone was wearing masks but our case numbers still went off the charts. Even right now, we've had a mask mandate for 3 weeks and our cases are rising as quickly as in other nearby non-mask counties.

I've wondered about this.  From what I understand, areas with strict mask mandates fared no better than areas with no or loose mandates.  

If masks work, why was there no difference in cases/deaths/transmission?

ETA: Comparing vaccine effectiveness vs. mask effectiveness.  It is so clear that vaccinated areas are doing much much better than low-vaccineated areas.  So if masks are so effective, why don't we see this same contrast?  My suspicion is that wearing a mask is like going through airport security.  It doesn't actually work but it makes everyone feel better for doing *something*.

 

Edited August 7, 2021 by Ipod Touch