Church stats for 2022

[boblloyd91]

https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/2022-statistical-report-april-2023-conference

 

It looks like some good numbers!

[JLHPROF]

17 million members.

And always the follow up question - how many of the 17 million are active current members?

[boblloyd91]

46 minutes ago, JLHPROF said:

17 million members.

And always the follow up question - how many of the 17 million are active current members?

That's always a good question. I think it's interesting though that this indicates an increase in converts, which is something our critics said is a thing of the past

[Teancum]

1 hour ago, JLHPROF said:

17 million members.

And always the follow up question - how many of the 17 million are active current members?

 A minority.  My guess is 30% to 35%.

[Teancum]

36 minutes ago, boblloyd91 said:

That's always a good question. I think it's interesting though that this indicates an increase in converts, which is something our critics said is a thing of the past

212k convert for 62k missionaries is a pretty poor rate of return if you are looking at convert only.  Heck in 1979 to 1981 when I served if I recollect correctly we baptized 250k per year with less than 30k missionaries.  The mission where I live has been expanded to cover two and a half missions that existed 20 plus years a ago.  That mission baptize a few hundred per year whereas it used to baptize 800 per year for a smaller area.

[cinepro]

If you want to know what the numbers actually mean, this is a good overview:

http://ldschurchgrowth.blogspot.com/

Quote

First, the annual membership growth rate exceed 1% for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic began. Church membership increased by 1.17% during 2022 which was only 0.04% less that the Church's annual membership growth rate in 2018. Thus, annual membership growth rates have returned to the approximate rates seen during the few years prior to the pandemic, although this still remains slightly lower than pre-COVID levels as annual membership growth rates were 1.54% in 2019 1.48% in 2017. Also, the discrepancy in the summation of converts baptized and children under age 8 added to church records and actual net increase in church membership was 104,170 - a typical number for this statistic during the past 10 years. This statistic indicates that the number of deaths, excommunications (loss of membership), resignations, and removal of unbaptized children of record ages 9 and older has remained static during the past 10 years despite church membership increasing from 14.8 million to 17.0 million.

Second, there was a large increase in convert baptisms in 2022 relative to the years 2021 and 2022. The year 2022 was the first time the number of converts baptized exceeded 200,000 since 2019 when there were 248,835 converts baptized. The difference between the number of convert baptisms in 2022 and the number of convert baptisms in 2021 was 43,889 - a slightly larger number than the difference in convert baptisms in 2021 versus the number of convert baptisms in 2020 which was 42,353. The annual number of convert baptisms in 2022 (212,172) has nearly recovered to pre-COVID levels, although the lowest year for the number of convert baptisms (2017) was still nearly 20,000 more than what was seen in 2022.

..........

[boblloyd91]

1 minute ago, cinepro said:

If you want to know what the numbers actually mean, this is a good overview:

http://ldschurchgrowth.blogspot.com/

..........

Yep, read that yesterday, that's a great website 

[boblloyd91]

1 hour ago, Teancum said:

212k convert for 62k missionaries is a pretty poor rate of return if you are looking at convert only.  Heck in 1979 to 1981 when I served if I recollect correctly we baptized 250k per year with less than 30k missionaries.  The mission where I live has been expanded to cover two and a half missions that existed 20 plus years a ago.  That mission baptize a few hundred per year whereas it used to baptize 800 per year for a smaller area.

True, but there's also been a considerable secularization of society since then as well. Critics are always trumpeting how much the church is declining and look to reduced baptisms as evidence of this. It looks like this year has shown improvement, and this is in spite of numerous negative stories and shows about the church. I'm not saying that everything is coming up roses, but that people who want to use the yearly statistical report as evidence of the imminent downfall of the church will have to look elsewhere this year to validate their narrative 

[webbles]

1 hour ago, Teancum said:

 A minority.  My guess is 30% to 35%.

It is probably larger than that.  I'd guess between 45% and 50%.  The number of stakes are a good indication of how many members have to be active.  Using the US/CA stake numbers from last year (which should be fairly close to this year since the stakes didn't increase that much) and using the stake size requirements, I get a little over 50% of the membership are needed to fill every stake.

[Navidad]

Do you have any data by country? I would be interested in the latest data for Mexico. James Dow, the great statistician of religion (now deceased) used to say that 30-35% of any religious group form the core - the faithful ones who keep things going. Take care. 

[Okrahomer]

7 minutes ago, Navidad said:

I would be interested in the latest data for Mexico.

You can find country-specific membership statistics here, but you might find the analysis provided here more insightful.

[blackstrap]

Statistics ,  the goat entrails for the modern era. 😁

[SeekingUnderstanding]

3 hours ago, boblloyd91 said:

Critics are always trumpeting how much the church is declining and look to reduced baptisms as evidence of this.

I’m not sure where you’ve seen this, but Covid made anything from past couple of years meaningless data wise. 

[Calm]

3 hours ago, boblloyd91 said:

True, but there's also been a considerable secularization of society since then as well. Critics are always trumpeting how much the church is declining and look to reduced baptisms as evidence of this. It looks like this year has shown improvement, and this is in spite of numerous negative stories and shows about the church. I'm not saying that everything is coming up roses, but that people who want to use the yearly statistical report as evidence of the imminent downfall of the church will have to look elsewhere this year to validate their narrative 

My guess is converts these days are much more informed, at least in the controversial stuff.  Hopefully in history and basic doctrine too.  The internet has made everything easier to explore.  Not saying they necessarily dig deep, that would depend on the person, but it makes me think that there is likely a smaller set of reasons for converts going inactive since many who would have learned about issues that would disconnect them from the Church probably learn of those issues before baptism these days.

[Calm]

26 minutes ago, SeekingUnderstanding said:

I’m not sure where you’ve seen this, but Covid made anything from past couple of years meaningless data wise. 

I agree.  I saw a graph about homeschooling trends and there is just no way to conclude anything from the last decade of more if one includes 2020 and 2021, save that there was a huge increase for those years…how much that increase sticks as life gets back to normal, which it isn’t yet in many places, is unknowable I suspect.

[Stargazer]

6 hours ago, Teancum said:

212k convert for 62k missionaries is a pretty poor rate of return if you are looking at convert only.  Heck in 1979 to 1981 when I served if I recollect correctly we baptized 250k per year with less than 30k missionaries.  The mission where I live has been expanded to cover two and a half missions that existed 20 plus years a ago.  That mission baptize a few hundred per year whereas it used to baptize 800 per year for a smaller area.

Things go in and out of style. I served in Germany in 1972-74. During my term our mission had its lowest convert rate since the church was first in Germany. A number of missionaries during that time had no baptisms at all. I managed three (only one of which personally performed). After that things improved greatly, although I don't remember to what extent it improved, just that it did get better. 

I'm of two minds about all this, as a general matter. First of all, the world is going to get progressively crazier, and as "men's hearts fail them" this is going to affect interest in religion generally. Will there be a revival of interest in the LDS church because of the worsening of conditions, or a reduction of interest for the same reason? I don't know, but neither an improvement nor a worsening of improvement surprise me at this point. The world has gotten substantially crazier than I ever imagined it would get during my (so far) 71 years on the planet. I don't know what to expect -- I'm just hunkering down to do what I can in my community to ameliorate what I can.

My stake population here in England has been static for the past few years. My brother's, in the Portland, OR, area, has grown remarkably, and most of the growth has been converts. My ward here in England used to have about 150 members for sacrament meeting every week. Nowadays it is more like 100, at most. Europe in general is a religious doldrum, and for all churches, I think. A local Church of England congregation near me whose church building is 950 years old (see photo) has so few attendees on Sundays that it is believed they will stop having regular services sometime soon. It saddens me.

One of my local C of E churches, the St. Nicholas parish church in Bramber, West Sussex:

 

 

Edited April 2, 2023 by Stargazer

[Rain]

6 hours ago, Teancum said:

212k convert for 62k missionaries is a pretty poor rate of return if you are looking at convert only.  Heck in 1979 to 1981 when I served if I recollect correctly we baptized 250k per year with less than 30k missionaries. 

If the stories I have heard are true this makes total sense.  Since then the church has seen that investigators really need to be prepared better because just having someone baptized does not mean they stay a life long member.  Now I do think that more prep still needs to go into helping someone become a member, but at least it is better.

6 hours ago, Teancum said:

The mission where I live has been expanded to cover two and a half missions that existed 20 plus years a ago.  That mission baptize a few hundred per year whereas it used to baptize 800 per year for a smaller area.

 

[rockpond]

8 hours ago, JLHPROF said:

17 million members.

And always the follow up question - how many of the 17 million are active current members?

2022 was another year in the four decade trend of averaging more members per stake and more members per ward.  I believe that's the best data point available to use for guaging activity levels (and it's not without its limitations).  Basically, my thinking is that if it continually takes more members of record to form a functioning ward and stake, than activity levels are likely decreasing.  One could also conclude that church leaders are wanting to make wards and stakes larger (in real attendance) but I don't know if everyone's lived experience jives with that.

I'm open to anyone shooting holes in my conclusions (but the data that shows members per stake/ward increasing over the last 40 years is fact).

[bluebell]

4 minutes ago, rockpond said:

2022 was another year in the four decade trend of averaging more members per stake and more members per ward.  I believe that's the best data point available to use for guaging activity levels (and it's not without its limitations).  Basically, my thinking is that if it continually takes more members of record to form a functioning ward and stake, than activity levels are likely decreasing.  One could also conclude that church leaders are wanting to make wards and stakes larger (in real attendance) but I don't know if everyone's lived experience jives with that.

I'm open to anyone shooting holes in my conclusions (but the data that shows members per stake/ward increasing over the last 40 years is fact).

Our ward was the victim of new ward boundaries back in October and we went from 600+ members with a 60 to 70% attendance rate down to 300+ members with probably 80ish people in church on Sundays. It really sucks.

This is in Utah. 

[rockpond]

1 minute ago, bluebell said:

Our ward was the victim of new ward boundaries back in October and we went from 600+ members with a 60 to 70% attendance rate down to 300+ members with probably 80ish people in church on Sundays. It really sucks.

This is in Utah. 

I'm sorry, that is rough.  I hope your new ward boundaries include some ares where new homes are being built.  I have sometimes seen wards created with really low numbers where boundaries include active development so you could anticipate new families moving into the ward in relatively large numbers.

[Rain]

31 minutes ago, rockpond said:

2022 was another year in the four decade trend of averaging more members per stake and more members per ward.  I believe that's the best data point available to use for guaging activity levels (and it's not without its limitations).  Basically, my thinking is that if it continually takes more members of record to form a functioning ward and stake, than activity levels are likely decreasing.  One could also conclude that church leaders are wanting to make wards and stakes larger (in real attendance) but I don't know if everyone's lived experience jives with that.

I'm open to anyone shooting holes in my conclusions (but the data that shows members per stake/ward increasing over the last 40 years is fact).

I know about 5 years ago something like half of my city's stakes were realined and made smaller.  If it was at least 5 years ago it would make sense in what you are saying.  If my timing is off then it would work the other way.

[Calm]

2 hours ago, Rain said:

Now I do think that more prep still needs to go into helping someone become a member, but at least it is better.

I think the emphasis for change should be more put into retention, have an organized program with a different set of missionaries with two families (or more so any kid in the convert family is buddied up with a kid their own age and sex so they have someone they know in classes) or a couple of singles per single convert (so it is not all on one person).  These buddies would commit to follow through to actively minister new converts and would be switched very quickly if they weren’t able to.  This buddy time might include having study time in those buddy and convert’s homes to take over for the Gospel Principles class…maybe a FHE each week that includes all these, but is open to anyone else in the ward attending as well to make it easier for everyone to get to know each other.  Maybe invite a different family/several singles each week to introduce everyone.  I know many wards already do some of this or other stuff and it may be even church wide and I am just out of the loop these days, but I think with all of our missionaries, if they are doubling up in areas rather than opening new areas, seems to me it would be smart to have two stages of missionaries, one for investigators and one for converts, even active ones and to train them differently.  This might help move dependence off of missionaries for commitment easier as well.

Edited April 3, 2023 by Calm

[bluebell]

2 hours ago, rockpond said:

I'm sorry, that is rough.  I hope your new ward boundaries include some ares where new homes are being built.  I have sometimes seen wards created with really low numbers where boundaries include active development so you could anticipate new families moving into the ward in relatively large numbers.

Sadly, there is no place for growth in our current ward boundaries.  And part of the problem is that we’ve had a lot of people move out of the ward—people who were active with big families—and the people that have moved into their old homes are not members. So that makes a big difference when it keeps happening.

I know it really confused a lot of the members the way that they redid the lines, but it is what it is. It was the second time the lines were re-drawn in the last five years so I guess we’ll see what happens in the next five. Lots of construction in the wards around ours so things keep getting moved around. 

[LoudmouthMormon]

Whelp, Colorado Springs is growing by leaps and bounds.  In the 20 years I've been here, my original ward boundaries now has 2 stakes and 5-7 wards in it.   Population density is absolutely increasing, but such a disproportionate amount is coming from secular godless Cali, it's still amazing to watch the growth.   A guy in my stake has been in 2 stakes and 4 wards, living in the same house, as the boundaries keep getting redrawn to account for the growth.

[rockpond]

2 hours ago, Calm said:

I think the emphasis for change should be more put into retention, have an organized program with a different set of missionaries with two families (or more so any kid in the convert family is buddied up with a kid their own age and sex so they have someone they know in classes) or a couple of singles per single convert (so it is not all on one person).  These buddies would commit to follow through to actively minister new converts and would be switched very quickly if they weren’t able to.  This buddy time might include having study time in those buddy and convert’s homes to take over for the Gospel Principles class…maybe a FHE each week that includes all these, but is open to anyone else in the ward attending as well to make it easier for everyone to get to know each other.  Maybe invite a different family/several singles each week to introduce everyone.  I know many wards already do some of this or other stuff and it may be even church wide and I am just out of the loop these days, but I think with all of our missionaries, if they are doubling up in areas rather than opening new areas, seems to me it would be smart to have two stages of missionaries, one for investigators and one for converts, even active ones and to train them differently.  This might help move dependence off of missionaries for commitment easier as well.

These are great ideas!  You may know this already but the Member Tools app has a tracking system for new members that monitors a number of the items you mentioned, as well as some others, and sends us messages when milestones are not met.  It even tracks things like who the new members friends are, their calling and ministering assignments, have they prepared a name for the temple, etc.  I'm not sure who can see it or who gets the messages.  I am currently serving as EQP and I know that I can see the progress of a recent convert (who is also a prospective elder) and I get frequent messages from the tool.  It's a great resource... could be improved, as with anything, but it helps.