The Other Covid Thread

[Chum]

6 hours ago, The Nehor said:

I also believed that a common threat would help. I was naive too.

Yeah. Post 9/11 was a moment of pure - if I may quote Henry Rollins;
 

Quote

HA HA HA HA

HA HA HA HA HA

Ha ha ha Sucker! Sucker! Oh.. sucker

 

Edited December 22, 2021 by Chum

[MustardSeed]

8 minutes ago, Harry T. Clark said:

Too bad.  I assume you deal in mental health and was hoping that you had some inkling of a solution. 

I have solutions for my clients.  I don’t have a plan for COVID or society.  

[Hamba Tuhan]

39 minutes ago, Calm said:

I love the convenience, but taking everything else out of the equation I prefer talking in person to doctors and therapists.

Same! But having remote access to doctors, therapists, etc. sure beats having no access.

[Harry T. Clark]

21 minutes ago, MustardSeed said:

I have solutions for my clients.  I don’t have a plan for COVID or society.  

No problem.  However, you seem to have some good experience that could result in some good suggestions ...

[MustardSeed]

4 minutes ago, Harry T. Clark said:

No problem.  However, you seem to have some good experience that could result in some good suggestions ...

My reach is limited to individuals and the ripple affect from there. 

[Calm]

37 minutes ago, Harry T. Clark said:

From the outside and seeing how my children have reacted, they suffered missing school and the social benefits of it.  Kids need to have other kids around them. 

They don’t need to have their friends sick and dying around them. Seen that happen up close. Not good. 

[BRMC]

1 minute ago, Calm said:

They don’t need to have their friends sick and dying around them. Seen that happen up close. Not good. 

They have seen their friends sick off and on their entire lives.  They aren't exactly seeing their friends dying around them now, either.

[Calm]

13 minutes ago, Hamba Tuhan said:

Same! But having remote access to doctors, therapists, etc. sure beats having no access.

I am so grateful when it started. I was thinking about asking if we could try it, having seen billboards advertising the service elsewhere. It seems stupid to go ask for medication in part because I have trouble when in cars by going in a car and thus requiring an extra dose or two that day. And now when a trip means I am getting sick and having to lie on the floor and hope I don’t throw up, my doctors are very happy  to do it long distance (beginning of January I get a test to see if they can tell the cause, here’s hoping that it doesn’t go away for the day as it has in the past as much as I love the relief and here’s doubly hoping it is something that can be treated without risking my hearing).

[Rivers]

53 minutes ago, Harry T. Clark said:

So, having a goal to have the best, cost effective treatments is equated with being a sheep?  When you respond, please let all know how safe and effective the vaccines are.  That way, no one will misconstrue what your religion is.

My sheep comment was sarcasm.

Nothing is perfectly safe and effective, which why I am against vaccine mandates.  People need to talk to their doctor, educate themselves, and make the decision that’s right for them. Individuals should be able to make their own risk/benefit calculation.  However, I believe that not getting vaccinated against Covid is a very unwise medical decision for a lot of people.  Unfortunately the vaccine hasn’t been as effective at preventing spread as much as we would have liked, but it has been very effective at preventing hospitalizations, ventilator requirements, and deaths.  

[Harry T. Clark]

35 minutes ago, Calm said:

They don’t need to have their friends sick and dying around them. Seen that happen up close. Not good. 

The chances of a child 0-18 yrs dying from covid is extremely small.  There have been less than 530 that have died.  https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Deaths-by-Sex-Ages-0-18-years/xa4b-4pzv

Any child dying is horrific but if a child dies of cancer or in a car wreck, we don't go to lockdown.  In this case, they overwhelmingly don't suffer any complications from covid.  It's just a common cold for them, unless there are comorbidities.  I'm sure the the child you saw die up close, one of the 530, was a terrible experience, however, causing the living to suffer, unnecessarily, because of that experience, seems overdone, to be charitable.  But fear of the isolated case is the rule, not the exception, according to the narrative.

[Hamba Tuhan]

1 hour ago, BRMC said:

They have seen their friends sick off and on their entire lives.  They aren't exactly seeing their friends dying around them now, either.

As of July this year, at least 2,000,000 children had lost one or both parents or a custodial grandparent to Covid.

You can track stats through the end of November here. The figure for India alone is now more than 2,000,000. The figure for America is currently 154,000 children.

Map with less recent data:

Edited December 22, 2021 by Hamba Tuhan

[sunstoned]

30 minutes ago, Hamba Tuhan said:

As of July this year, at least 2,000,000 children had lost one or both parents or a custodial grandparent to Covid.

You can track stats through the end of November here. The figure for India alone is now more than 2,000,000. The figure for America is currently 154,000 children.

Map with less recent data:

Thanks for posting this.  The numbers are sobering.

[Calm]

1 hour ago, Harry T. Clark said:

There have been less than 530 that have died.

So outside the US doesn’t exist in your world?

Thankfully deaths of children are low in comparison*** and it may even be that “excess deaths” is not going to be that significant, but there are many other negative effects of Covid in children’s life, not just the death and illness of friends, that can be prevented in part Imo by partial lockdowns. 
 

Including the one Hamba posted so I didn’t have to…loss of caregiver of a child.  I have a friend, a doctor, who has seen four, maybe five (need to check the email) members of a family wiped out, leaving a young teen son as the only one left. That is not something that temporary physical isolation from friends (contact can occur virtually or by phone or as my granddaughter did, playing dolls with her best friend with a street in between) comes close to matching. 

***https://data.unicef.org/topic/child-survival/covid-19/

Edited December 22, 2021 by Calm

[Hamba Tuhan]

1 minute ago, Calm said:

So outside the US doesn’t exist in your world?

Hey, that's usually my line! 

[rodheadlee]

988 is the new mental health hotline. 

I think if people don't have a good relationship with Heavenly Father they are going to be anxious. These are perilous times. This would seem to hit our young the hardest if they believe that there is no point in carrying on.

[Harry T. Clark]

The numbers cited above by Hamba Tuhan are based on estimates and models.  https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01253-8/fulltext

Hopefully, there are errors in these estimates and models like there has been throughout this.  Here is an article detailing the estimate/model problem:   https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7447267/

Actual numbers would be a lot better.

[Hamba Tuhan]

6 minutes ago, Harry T. Clark said:

Actual numbers would be a lot better.

Mate, outside of a dystopian surveillance state that would make the hair on your neck permanently stand up, all we have are estimates and models for most things. This is definitely one of those things. If you read the original Lancet study, this model was intentionally designed to be a minimum.

[Harry T. Clark]

16 minutes ago, Calm said:

So outside the US doesn’t exist in your world?

Thankfully deaths of children are low in comparison*** and it may even be that “excess deaths” is not going to be that significant, but there are many other negative effects of Covid in children’s life, not just the death and illness of friends, that can be prevented in part Imo by partial lockdowns. 
 

Including the one Hamba posted so I didn’t have to…loss of caregiver of a child.  I have a friend, a doctor, who has seen four, maybe five (need to check the email) members of a family wiped out, leaving a young teen son as the only one left. That is not something that temporary physical isolation from friends (contact can occur virtually or by phone or as my granddaughter did, playing dolls with her best friend with a street in between) comes close to matching. 

***https://data.unicef.org/topic/child-survival/covid-19/

Here is what unicef says: https://data.unicef.org/topic/child-survival/covid-19/

O.4% of the deaths worldwide, were children.  12,000 is a terrible number, but clearly, given there are 3.4 million deaths worldwide, children are pretty safe from this.  My children had it along with me and my wife.  It wasn't fun, but a few days of sickness and that was it.

Sure, some anecdotes are horrific and the teenager you cite is going to have a hard time to say the least.  I really feel for him and hope he has family that will step up to the plate.  However, we shouldn't make the overwhelming majority suffer simply because one had an unfortunate occurrence.

[Harry T. Clark]

6 minutes ago, Hamba Tuhan said:

Mate, outside of a dystopian surveillance state that would make the hair on your neck permanently stand up, all we have are estimates and models for most things. This is definitely one of those things. If you read the original Lancet study, this model was intentionally designed to be a minimum.

Take a look at the methods of the Lancet paper, mate.  It looks like the fear-mongering from the past.  https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2020/03/18/covi-m18.html

[Hamba Tuhan]

6 hours ago, Harry T. Clark said:

Take a look at the methods of the Lancet paper, mate.  It looks like the fear-mongering from the past. 

From your link: 'We predict ... 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1–1.2 million in the US'.

Estimated deaths in the US so far: 830,990 (75.54 per cent of prediction), and currently increasing at an average rate of 1,236 per day.

Estimated deaths in the UK so far: 147,433 (59 per cent of prediction), and currently increasing at an average rate of 115 per day.

Have you seen the future and know somehow what the final figures will be?

And why do you quote figures when you think they support your point but then seek to sow doubt in figures when they don't?

Edited December 22, 2021 by Hamba Tuhan

[The Nehor]

7 hours ago, Harry T. Clark said:

The chances of a child 0-18 yrs dying from covid is extremely small.  There have been less than 530 that have died.  https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Deaths-by-Sex-Ages-0-18-years/xa4b-4pzv

Any child dying is horrific but if a child dies of cancer or in a car wreck, we don't go to lockdown.  In this case, they overwhelmingly don't suffer any complications from covid.  It's just a common cold for them, unless there are comorbidities.  I'm sure the the child you saw die up close, one of the 530, was a terrible experience, however, causing the living to suffer, unnecessarily, because of that experience, seems overdone, to be charitable.  But fear of the isolated case is the rule, not the exception, according to the narrative.

Yeah, we don’t go into lockdown due to cancer or car crashes because (and this is very important) cancer and car crashes aren’t contagious.

[The Nehor]

6 hours ago, Harry T. Clark said:

Take a look at the methods of the Lancet paper, mate.  It looks like the fear-mongering from the past.  https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2020/03/18/covi-m18.html

I remember the initial fear mongering I was a worse case scenario guy. On a very long and tired night a friend and I made a bet that he would owe me a dinner at our favorite bbq place if the final Covid death toll in the US was closer to 500,000 and I would owe him if it was closer to 250,000.

We’ve blown past what the “it is going to be bad” people were saying. Yet still people are pushing this narrative that the whole thing was being overblown from the beginning.

Never had a chance to get the dinner yet. Not even sure if the place is still open. I should check. Probably morbid to ask for it in any case. I was hoping that I would lose.

And now I have a craving for brisquet and ribs.

[BRMC]

7 hours ago, Hamba Tuhan said:

As of July this year, at least 2,000,000 children had lost one or both parents or a custodial grandparent to Covid.

You can track stats through the end of November here. The figure for India alone is now more than 2,000,000. The figure for America is currently 154,000 children.

Map with less recent data:

While sad, that has nothing to do with my post.  

[provoman]

Would someone be willing to explain this in in lay terms?

Quote

 

Evaluation of Abbott BinaxNOW Rapid Antigen Test for SARS-CoV-2 Infection at Two Community-Based Testing Sites — Pima County, Arizona, November 3–17, 2020

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7003e3.htm

Summary

What is already known about this topic?

The BinaxNOW rapid antigen test received Emergency Use Authorization by the Food and Drug Administration for testing specimens from symptomatic persons; performance among asymptomatic persons is not well characterized.

What is added by this report?

Sensitivity of the BinaxNOW antigen test, compared with polymerase chain reaction testing, was lower when used to test specimens from asymptomatic (35.8%) than from symptomatic (64.2%) persons, but specificity was high. Sensitivity was higher for culture-positive specimens (92.6% and 78.6% for those from symptomatic and asymptomatic persons, respectively); however, some antigen test-negative specimens had culturable virus.

What are the implications for public health practice?

The high specificity and rapid BinaxNOW antigen test turnaround time facilitate earlier isolation of infectious persons. Antigen tests can be an important tool in an overall community testing strategy to reduce transmission.

 

 

 

Does this mean 35.8% accuracy in asymptomatic persons?

I was on walgreens website and there are 3000 1 star reviews for the Binax now - of the few reviews I read was that the home test was negative but same day PCR test at a testing facility was positive.

[rodheadlee]

3 hours ago, The Nehor said:

Yeah, we don’t go into lockdown due to cancer or car crashes because (and this is very important) cancer and car crashes aren’t contagious.

If we go on lockdown for every contagious disease that runs through this world we will  be in a permanent lockdown situation.