Hamba Tuhan Posted December 28, 2021 Posted December 28, 2021 54 minutes ago, Danzo said: 1. ICU and deaths are usually a lagging indicator, and lag the positive tests by a couple of weeks. People get sick, then go to the hospital later (Generally) That's what I understand too. I've just gone back and checked the bar chart, and our surge appears to have started on 15 December, so exactly two weeks ago. It will be interesting to see what the next week brings. Quote 2. If I recall correctly, you indicated that the vaccine rate in your country is above 98%. Wouldn't that indicate that the vaccine isn't stopping the spread of the virus? 17 times larger would seem to indicate rapid spread in the population, something that I wouldn't expect in a (near) fully vaccinated population. The basis for all figures I've been giving are my sub-national jurisdiction, not nation. We are currently at 98.5 per cent of the eligible population fully vaccinated, but for us that is age 12 and older. (Vaccines for children won't be available till next year.) Across the entire population, that gives us a total vaccination rate of 83.8 per cent. Technically, that leaves us with 16.2 per cent of the population that is completely unprotected. Annoyingly, our jurisdictional government has decided that it won't provide data on the ages or vaccination status of those infected, hospitalised, or in ICU, so that leaves us guessing what's going on. I do know in the weeks prior to Christmas, most of our exposure locations were schools, so it's possible that the virus is mainly infecting unvaccinated children, but I doubt that's entirely correct. We have also been told that our lowest uptake for vaccines in the eligible population is males aged 20-29 (followed by females in the same age range), and pubs/clubs have been our second most common exposure locations, closely followed by gyms. I just did the maths, and yesterday's number of confirmed cases, despite being 17 times greater than one week ago, was only 0.36 per cent of our total unvaccinated population, so it would theoretically be possible that the spread is exclusively amongst the unvaccinated, but I highly doubt that. According to one of our neighbouring jurisdictions, which is seeing a much worse surge in cases and has a moderately lower vaccination rate, 97 per cent of all hospitalisations there are in the unvaccinated, but one-third of those in ICU are vaccinated (overwhelmingly the very old). I suspect something similar may be happening here, with new cases primarily made up of unvaccinated children and young adults, accompanied by a certain number of now-expected breakthrough cases in the vaccinated. Quote 3. The fact that the ICU beds are not being used would indicate that the vaccines seem to reduce the severity of the disease, which is hopeful. It would be interesting to know the how many people are being admitted to hospitals (non ICU) as another indication of how severe these cases are. It does seem that way so far. It would be interesting to know how much of this is because of the protection of the vaccines and how much of it is because Omicron is less severe. (We don't even know the breakdown between Delta and Omicron in current cases -- something else our government isn't reporting.) It's almost certainly a combination. Regarding hospitalisations, the number of people currently in hospital (none in ICU) is 0.33 per cent of the total number of confirmed cases over the past week ... so not very high. 3
bsjkki Posted December 29, 2021 Posted December 29, 2021 We are having a covid surge in Colorado. Test positivity rate is much higher. Yesterday, I saw a long line of cars waiting for tests. Free tests sites are overrun. I need to check cases vs deaths and see how that is holding. Cases with Omicron is not going to tell the full story.
Tacenda Posted December 30, 2021 Posted December 30, 2021 https://www.ksl.com/article/50319589/a-whopping-3303-new-utah-covid-cases-reported--the-highest-in-nearly-a-year
John Madden Posted December 30, 2021 Posted December 30, 2021 One of my children got covid in 2020, got vaccinated in 2021 just to go to work, despite having covid antibodies (including donating blood with tests for antibodies). Multiple of my children got vaccinated and later got covid. Did not require hospitalization, but had lingering effects. Two of my children got covid within the last few weeks, unvaccinated, no issues, minor discomfort for a day or so, tested at home and at the clinic with positive test results. My issue with all of this - Why do we call it a covid vaccine? We should just call it a shot and a prayer. Before you jump on that too harshly, please understand my point. For the average person, the MMR, Polio, Popeye's Chicken Pox and HPV vaccines are considered vaccines because they prevent the disease, not because they reduce the surge and demand on our healthcare system and protect the elderly and vulnerable. If this so-called vaccine was never meant to (or expected to) prevent infections, perhaps they should not have used a naming convention that compares it to something that has a credible reputation and description. I wholly accept that the Flu "shot" is also a vaccine that targets flu variants. If I had any expectation for the vaccination based on the description of it as a "vaccine," all shame and disgust is on me - not anyone else. I own that. Vaccine passports are silly, it is like me having proof of a flu shot from 2018. Having a vaccine for covid is great for a few days, and then, as we can see now, it is expired. I guess, what I am really saying is that if a boy cries wolf a few times, his tears may be real even if they are faked. If his intent in crying wolf was to get our attention - he was successful. If his intent in crying wolf was to gain credibility and prevent a wolf from eating our grandmothers - not successful.
Popular Post CA Steve Posted December 30, 2021 Popular Post Posted December 30, 2021 11 minutes ago, John Madden said: My issue with all of this - Why do we call it a covid vaccine? We should just call it a shot and a prayer. Welcome to the board. The efficacy of the vaccine is staggering in spite of your anecdotal experience. Here's mine. I have a DIL and niece who are both ER nurses. The rate of unvaccinated to vaccinated in their ER's is 10 to 1. 5
John Madden Posted December 30, 2021 Posted December 30, 2021 17 minutes ago, CA Steve said: I have a DIL and niece who are both ER nurses. The rate of unvaccinated to vaccinated in their ER's is 10 to 1. Thank you. Mind if we unpack that anecdote? The Emergency Department (it is a department, and not just a room) has multiple uses and the experience of a nurse in one of these departments varies. Two hospitals in one city, across the street from each other, could have varying experiences based on their designation as a trauma center, or whether the facility is public or private. Big City General Hospital is not going to look the same in the ER on Saturday night as The Rothschild Family and Our Sister of Mercy Medical Care Hospital for Women and Children of the Lamb - for example. People going directly to the ER with Covid are not necessarily hospitalized with Covid. Also, demographic groups that are more reluctant to get the vaccine may be concentrated or they may be more likely to seek care from an ER/ED than a primary care physician. My primary care physician, for example, sees or takes calls from his patients all day and almost ALL of his patients that test positive for covid, are vaccinated and some are boosted. His entire staff is vaccinated, by mandate, and they have all tested positive for covid with vaccinations. And by all, I mean every person on his staff has tested positive despite being vaccinated. The exception here is that the doctor got covid before he got vaccinated, and he only got vaccinated to stay employed/in business. So there ya go. We both have anecdotes that really are just anecdotes.
CA Steve Posted December 30, 2021 Posted December 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, John Madden said: Thank you. Mind if we unpack that anecdote? The Emergency Department (it is a department, and not just a room) has multiple uses and the experience of a nurse in one of these departments varies. Two hospitals in one city, across the street from each other, could have varying experiences based on their designation as a trauma center, or whether the facility is public or private. Big City General Hospital is not going to look the same in the ER on Saturday night as The Rothschild Family and Our Sister of Mercy Medical Care Hospital for Women and Children of the Lamb - for example. People going directly to the ER with Covid are not necessarily hospitalized with Covid. Also, demographic groups that are more reluctant to get the vaccine may be concentrated or they may be more likely to seek care from an ER/ED than a primary care physician. My primary care physician, for example, sees or takes calls from his patients all day and almost ALL of his patients that test positive for covid, are vaccinated and some are boosted. His entire staff is vaccinated, by mandate, and they have all tested positive for covid with vaccinations. And by all, I mean every person on his staff has tested positive despite being vaccinated. The exception here is that the doctor got covid before he got vaccinated, and he only got vaccinated to stay employed/in business. So there ya go. We both have anecdotes that really are just anecdotes. Do you have any actual data where the vaccine is shown to not be effective? 2
John Madden Posted December 30, 2021 Posted December 30, 2021 9 minutes ago, CA Steve said: Do you have any actual data where the vaccine is shown to not be effective? We were talking about anecdotes. One anecdote I offered was that my kids that were vaccinated were more ill with symptoms than my kids that were not vaccinated. I am basing my anecdote on things that happened in my home or with my own children. I would compare your question to me asking if you have actual data that 90% of all Covid+ Emergency Room patients in the last week of December were unvaccinated? I am not asking for that because I know you do not have it. Asking for it would just be silly on my part.
Chum Posted December 30, 2021 Posted December 30, 2021 16 minutes ago, John Madden said: Thank you. Mind if we unpack that anecdote? [stuff] So there ya go. We both have anecdotes that really are just anecdotes. Nice try. It's trivially easy to confirm that overfilled hospitals are primarily packed with the unvaccinated. Just a note: We've gained a fair amount of experience debunking the false narrative that vaccines aren't meaningfully effective. 3
John Madden Posted December 30, 2021 Posted December 30, 2021 Thanks. I will call my kids and tell them that what happened must not have happened. Thank you.
Chum Posted December 30, 2021 Posted December 30, 2021 1 minute ago, John Madden said: Thanks. I will call my kids and tell them that what happened must not have happened. Thank you. You're welcome. Glad we could help!
Popular Post CA Steve Posted December 30, 2021 Popular Post Posted December 30, 2021 14 minutes ago, John Madden said: Thanks. I will call my kids and tell them that what happened must not have happened. Thank you. While you're at it you could call relatives of those that died from Covid and tell them what happened must not of happened. Thank you. 6
Popular Post The Nehor Posted December 30, 2021 Popular Post Posted December 30, 2021 5 hours ago, John Madden said: One of my children got covid in 2020, got vaccinated in 2021 just to go to work, despite having covid antibodies (including donating blood with tests for antibodies). Multiple of my children got vaccinated and later got covid. Did not require hospitalization, but had lingering effects. Two of my children got covid within the last few weeks, unvaccinated, no issues, minor discomfort for a day or so, tested at home and at the clinic with positive test results. My issue with all of this - Why do we call it a covid vaccine? We should just call it a shot and a prayer. Before you jump on that too harshly, please understand my point. For the average person, the MMR, Polio, Popeye's Chicken Pox and HPV vaccines are considered vaccines because they prevent the disease, not because they reduce the surge and demand on our healthcare system and protect the elderly and vulnerable. If this so-called vaccine was never meant to (or expected to) prevent infections, perhaps they should not have used a naming convention that compares it to something that has a credible reputation and description. I wholly accept that the Flu "shot" is also a vaccine that targets flu variants. If I had any expectation for the vaccination based on the description of it as a "vaccine," all shame and disgust is on me - not anyone else. I own that. Vaccine passports are silly, it is like me having proof of a flu shot from 2018. Having a vaccine for covid is great for a few days, and then, as we can see now, it is expired. I guess, what I am really saying is that if a boy cries wolf a few times, his tears may be real even if they are faked. If his intent in crying wolf was to get our attention - he was successful. If his intent in crying wolf was to gain credibility and prevent a wolf from eating our grandmothers - not successful. We call it a vaccine because it is a vaccine. The MMR, Polio, Chickenpox, and other vaccines didn’t have to worry about clogged hospitals because the diseases were only causing local epidemics. They were endemic diseases. Polio in particular usually caused no symptoms. You could say it is a disease where we tried natural immunity and found it wanting. There was no need to worry about hospitals overloading because there weren’t millions of people being exposed to the disease at the same time for the first time and that coronavirus is, generally speaking, much more contagious. The polio vaccine doesn’t prevent infections. It usually (but not always) means your body will fight off the disease without experiencing symptoms and usually defeat it before you can transmit it to someone else. The polio vaccine isn’t 100%. It slowed the spread enough that we eradicated the disease in all but two countries in the world. Just like we would ideally do with the coronavirus. Sadly the coronavirus is mutating and the vaccine seems less capable of preventing transmission with some of the new variants though it still prevents a lot of transmission. A vaccine for covid lasts much longer than “a few days”. There is a diminishment in protection but it doesn’t fade completely or even mostly. On behalf of the medical community (which I do not belong to) we apologize to you for not teaching you in school what a vaccine is and does and what it is not and does not. We also apologize for not having prophetic insight into how the virus would work and mutate with perfect foreknowledge. We also apologize for whoever taught you that expecting such foreknowledge was a reasonable expectation. It is sadly not. We were warned when this first started that it could take years to get it eradicated or at least down to endemic levels. Many insisted this was doomerism and focusing on worst-case scenarios. Maybe more people should have listened instead of pinning their hopes on the most optimistic scenario and assuming that would happen. 5
John Madden Posted December 30, 2021 Posted December 30, 2021 So, we could have just called it a leaky vaccine. That would be a good compromise and it would be accurate. I am cool with that. It is like calling the Detroit Lions a professional football team and calling the Crimson Tide football team nonprofessional. We can agree to it, and it works, and we all know what is what. Works for me. Everyone can reach across the aisles here and agree.
The Nehor Posted December 30, 2021 Posted December 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, John Madden said: So, we could have just called it a leaky vaccine. That would be a good compromise and it would be accurate. I am cool with that. It is like calling the Detroit Lions a professional football team and calling the Crimson Tide football team nonprofessional. We can agree to it, and it works, and we all know what is what. Works for me. Everyone can reach across the aisles here and agree. All vaccines are leaky vaccines then. Look up the numbers on polio and measles. They aren’t 100% or 99%. If we dosed everyone with live measles we would see exactly how leaky the vaccine is and it would be a lot like coronavirus. The only reason the coronavirus seems so leaky is that we have so many people getting it at once that the numbers leaking through make it seem like the vaccine is doing nothing. Admittedly if we didn’t have this weird anti-vaccination cult sowing doubt and fear about the vaccines we would have a much higher vaccination percentage and be doing much better instead of watching the US continue to set Covid records. WE’RE #1! USA! 3
ksfisher Posted December 30, 2021 Posted December 30, 2021 Some interesting numbers Risk ratios • In the past four weeks, unvaccinated Utahns were 18.1 times more likely to die of COVID-19 than vaccinated people, according to a Utah Department of Health analysis. The unvaccinated also were 9.6 times more likely to be hospitalized, and 3.3 times more likely to test positive for the coronavirus. https://www.sltrib.com/news/2021/12/30/utah-reports-highest/ 4
Rain Posted December 30, 2021 Posted December 30, 2021 5 hours ago, John Madden said: We were talking about anecdotes. One anecdote I offered was that my kids that were vaccinated were more ill with symptoms than my kids that were not vaccinated. I am basing my anecdote on things that happened in my home or with my own children. I would compare your question to me asking if you have actual data that 90% of all Covid+ Emergency Room patients in the last week of December were unvaccinated? I am not asking for that because I know you do not have it. Asking for it would just be silly on my part. Did your vaccinated and unvaccinated kids have the same variant? 1
Tacenda Posted December 31, 2021 Posted December 31, 2021 (edited) It's real...some of my kids think it's a joke, but covid is real. The gal that does my hair just had her dad get out of the hospital on the 26th after 6 months on a ventilator and he's only in his early 50's. Tonight I had my husband take some Happy New Year gifts to my neighbor two doors down and our neighbor told my husband it's been a tough holiday season because his dad died of covid. I guess his dad refused to go to the doctor and finally someone made him go and he then passed away. The shiz is real. Edited December 31, 2021 by Tacenda
Harry T. Clark Posted December 31, 2021 Posted December 31, 2021 7 hours ago, John Madden said: So, we could have just called it a leaky vaccine. That would be a good compromise and it would be accurate. I am cool with that. It is like calling the Detroit Lions a professional football team and calling the Crimson Tide football team nonprofessional. We can agree to it, and it works, and we all know what is what. Works for me. Everyone can reach across the aisles here and agree. There are a lot of people on this site that cannot countenance any deviation from the vaccine narrative, regardless of what one's personal experience has been or what other scientists have found. It is part of the times we live in, I guess. -2
The Nehor Posted December 31, 2021 Posted December 31, 2021 1 hour ago, Harry T. Clark said: There are a lot of people on this site that cannot countenance any deviation from the vaccine narrative, regardless of what one's personal experience has been or what other scientists have found. It is part of the times we live in, I guess. Some people just get all huffy and object to people spreading dangerous disinformation that is literally getting hundreds of thousands of people killed. Why are they so closeminded? They should just accept that internet stories, personal anecdotes, and quacks are just as credible as hard data and the conclusions of virtually every competent health organization in the world. You’re right. I don’t countenance lies that are killing people. I wouldn’t think that would be a controversial stance but these are strange times. 4
John Madden Posted December 31, 2021 Posted December 31, 2021 Are you saying that it is not a leaky vaccine? We all agree that this is a vaccine, correct? We could have called it something like the flu shot, for communication purposes, but that did not happen. We all agree though, this is a vaccine. And, based on the number of people getting covid after receiving the covid vaccine, can we at least agree that the vaccine leaked? And, based on this Omicron apocalypse, we can all agree that this vaccine leaked like a sieve.
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