pogi Posted January 1, 2022 Posted January 1, 2022 58 minutes ago, John Madden said: Hey MacGyver, I am willing to stay in this for a bit. You in? https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6_2017.html That link is for the Actuarial Life Table published by the Social Security department of the US Gummnt. If anyone has any comparable numbers for covid, the flu, or actuarial tables of any other period or group, I would like to see them and compare them. Just data. Links to the data. The Link I provided is for 2017. This table says that a person age 50 has a death probability of .003118, age 70, has a death probability of .015285, and that a person age 90 has a death probability of .131392. Without anyone getting tarred or feathered here, can anyone provide any data that suggests that in 2020 or 2021 that the probability of dying was different for someone at age 50, 70 or 90? Just math. No hard or soft feelings. Just math. From2019 to 2020 there was a decline in life expectancy of 1.5 years. That is the largest single year drop since WWII. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/nchs_press_releases/2021/202107.htm 3
Chum Posted January 1, 2022 Posted January 1, 2022 8 hours ago, rodheadlee said: 🙄 sure. FYI Mom died from her vaccine shot. With absolute sincerity - and with exactitude - I hope you will forgive my skepticism that the vaccine was the direct cause of her death (and not an adjacent event). The combination of extraordinarily rare occurrence of severe vaccine reaction and preponderance of debunked vax-death anecdotes has brought me to an unfortunate place - where I can no longer reliably trust what had always been a sacrosanct disclosure.
John Madden Posted January 1, 2022 Posted January 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, Chum said: With absolute sincerity - and with exactitude - I hope you will forgive my skepticism that the vaccine was the direct cause of her death (and not an adjacent event). The combination of extraordinarily rare occurrence of severe vaccine reaction and preponderance of debunked vax-death anecdotes has brought me to an unfortunate place - where I can no longer reliably trust what had always been a sacrosanct disclosure. Whoa. Well. We have that. Good to know. That was a bold disclosure. Took me a reread to process that one. Chum, do you apply the same scrutiny to other claims? For example, do you still, or do you no longer, trust the sacrosanct disclosure that someone died from covid? Particularly, given the extraordinary and rare occurrence that a covid death was not actually a death from other comorbidities, including trauma, do you trust that all so-called deaths are exclusively and always a death that, barring covid infections, would not have happened?
Calm Posted January 1, 2022 Author Posted January 1, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, John Madden said: In effect the character is saying - This is no longer a discussion, MEET MY DANGER! The whole point of the logic and the expression is to dictate, without negotiation, the conditions for interaction and for any interaction to be on THEIR TERMS! I don’t think you are any better at translating and explaining Nehor than you are translating and explaining German. My guess is Nehor thinks you take yourselves way too seriously as well as carelessly buying into major misrepresentations of science, etc. He is well aware as anyone should be on the board the only one with the power to dictate interaction is Nemesis. In my opinion, people are getting tarred and fresh heed by what comes out of their own mouths, no one needs to do it to them nor cares to, I bet. The overwrought drama is more than enough to endure. Soap operas suddenly seem almost appealing as an alternative form of distraction until the board passses this fad stage. Edited January 1, 2022 by Calm 3
Chum Posted January 1, 2022 Posted January 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, John Madden said: Chum, do you apply the same scrutiny to other claims? For example, do you still, or do you no longer, trust the sacrosanct disclosure that someone died from covid? Particularly, given the extraordinary and rare occurrence that a covid death was not actually a death from other comorbidities, including trauma, do you trust that all so-called deaths are exclusively and always a death that, barring covid infections, would not have happened? What was sacrosanct (and still is in every non-charged scenario) was the factors we're told about someone's loved ones' death. I can remember no other instance when it wasn't safe to accept what we're told w/o question. 1
Calm Posted January 1, 2022 Author Posted January 1, 2022 2 hours ago, John Madden said: I think I just read on here that anyone who suggests that the covid vaccines prevent acquisition or transmission of covid should be tarred and feathered. And, I think that tarring and feathering has a particularly pointed and meaning within this community. Anyways, it sure looks like that just happened. Is this your way of avoiding Hamba’s evidence your original source doesn’t actually support your claims? 4
Calm Posted January 1, 2022 Author Posted January 1, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, John Madden said: Hey MacGyver, I am willing to stay in this for a bit. You in? https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6_2017.html That link is for the Actuarial Life Table published by the Social Security department of the US Gummnt. If anyone has any comparable numbers for covid, the flu, or actuarial tables of any other period or group, I would like to see them and compare them. Just data. Links to the data. The Link I provided is for 2017. This table says that a person age 50 has a death probability of .003118, age 70, has a death probability of .015285, and that a person age 90 has a death probability of .131392. Without anyone getting tarred or feathered here, can anyone provide any data that suggests that in 2020 or 2021 that the probability of dying was different for someone at age 50, 70 or 90? Just math. No hard or soft feelings. Just math. Another source turns out to be a bomb. Another move to a new claim with no mention of the old Edited January 1, 2022 by Calm 2
Calm Posted January 1, 2022 Author Posted January 1, 2022 1 hour ago, John Madden said: No need to be humble with that assessment or opinion, in my humble opinion. Go big and go bold with it. It is a good opinion. I do not think "everything" is a labeled a lie. I think the attachment of the label, whether it be "fake news" or "propaganda" or anything on the discrediting spectrum is done selectively and is meant to do something. It is meant to set the terms AND conditions for continuing or for connecting. It says, I have determined that what we are discussing must be done on my terms, with my conditions, and my opinions or I will, with civility of course, have you tarred and feathered. These are my conditions. These are my terms. I think that actual lies are treated the same way. I think we are lied to and told to accept that we are lied to or accept the lie as facts, or else. I think that we are given facts and told to discredit them as lies, or else. The centered approach when given these extreme conditions, and one that we had to practice as missionaries back in the day, was to just not engage on those terms. At least in my mission, we were not expected to engage with every person that disagreed with us. We just did not engage, and moved on. You learned that lesson well since you aren’t engaging much at all. But not moving on either, just talking over those who disagree with you as if they aren’t even here for most of the time and instead discuss your ideas among yourselves and most especially, ignore any need to actually address actual responses….just go on repeating your list of mostly unsubstantiated claims. 4
John Madden Posted January 1, 2022 Posted January 1, 2022 15 minutes ago, Calm said: You learned that lesson well since you aren’t engaging much at all. But not moving on either, just talking over those who disagree with you as if they aren’t even here for most of the time and instead discuss your ideas among yourselves and most especially, ignore any need to actually address actual responses….just go on repeating your list of mostly unsubstantiated claims. Was there a clock? I missed the clock. If the clock expired, and I merit all these insults and judgments - that is great. I did not see the clock. How much time to do I have to process the data linked above to avoid further judgment and insult?
The Nehor Posted January 1, 2022 Posted January 1, 2022 2 hours ago, John Madden said: Hey MacGyver, I am willing to stay in this for a bit. You in? https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6_2017.html That link is for the Actuarial Life Table published by the Social Security department of the US Gummnt. If anyone has any comparable numbers for covid, the flu, or actuarial tables of any other period or group, I would like to see them and compare them. Just data. Links to the data. The Link I provided is for 2017. This table says that a person age 50 has a death probability of .003118, age 70, has a death probability of .015285, and that a person age 90 has a death probability of .131392. Without anyone getting tarred or feathered here, can anyone provide any data that suggests that in 2020 or 2021 that the probability of dying was different for someone at age 50, 70 or 90? Just math. No hard or soft feelings. Just math. So no acknowledgement that lies were peddled. New claim. And a quick search shows that it is a common argument from a similarly untrustworthy source. The Book of Mormon was spot on with its warning about those who love lies. 1
The Nehor Posted January 1, 2022 Posted January 1, 2022 1 hour ago, BRMC said: The problem, in my humble opinion, is that everything is labeled a "lie". In some instances, it is an outright lie. In some cases it's a matter of perspective. In other cases it's changing the message through omission. Our inability to call lies lies and liars liars is why we are in this convoluted mess of misinformation and why so many are dancing so beautifully on Russian and Chinese strings. 2
Calm Posted January 1, 2022 Author Posted January 1, 2022 (edited) 28 minutes ago, John Madden said: Was there a clock? I missed the clock. If the clock expired, and I merit all these insults and judgments - that is great. I did not see the clock. How much time to do I have to process the data linked above to avoid further judgment and insult? The clock is quite short in regards to a rebuttal in one condition…if you have responded to a post before and after it, but said not a word about a post that directly responded to you and even a request by you…you have demonstrated you are not in the mood for an actual discussion on the merits of your argument. If you say ‘thanks for giving me your attention and time, that answer looks to be substantive and I need time to examine it that I don’t currently have, but I will get back to it when I can; if I appear to have forgotten don’t hesitate to remind me’ or some variation of recognition it exists and expression of intent to engage, the clock can be extended quite a bit. If you call the waiter over and give them instructions on how to make the perfect cup of hot cocoa for you using an exotic ingredient you just received and they come back to the table offering it to you and you just ignore it…perhaps because it turned out that fantastic ingredient has a weird smell after all, and even appear to have finished eating and mean to leave, to move on and yet have given no sign you see the cup of cocoa in the waiter’s hands…that would be a rather tacky thing to do, wouldn’t it? You (or one of your trinity)ordered the plate, Hamba delivered. Are you going to eat it or not? Edited January 1, 2022 by Calm 3
MacGyver Posted January 1, 2022 Posted January 1, 2022 2 hours ago, John Madden said: Hey MacGyver, I am willing to stay in this for a bit. You in? I'm in. But I've got a lot of family stuff going on today so I may not be able to respond very quickly.
John Madden Posted January 1, 2022 Posted January 1, 2022 1 hour ago, pogi said: From2019 to 2020 there was a decline in life expectancy of 1.5 years. That is the largest single year drop since WWII. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/nchs_press_releases/2021/202107.htm Well. Let's start with the data before we get to conclusions. Cool? Your link was a report of ESTIMATES, with several disclosures that the data are not complete or available. However, there were several references to data sources from past years that are available. Specifically, https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db395.htm, and https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db395-tables-508.pdf#page=4 The first thing to do, in my opinion, is to remove the estimates not based on data which is included in the paper you sent. I have had a long enough career to know to walk away from assumptions not based on facts. The next thing is to address the process and make sure we agree on the process. If you look at table 5 of your linked data there is something very revealing in that table. Covid, per the table, has contributed to the causes of death and estimated life expectancy formula negatively, but CANCER had a HUGE improvement. Also, if you compare the links I showed you, influenza was a top ten leading cause of death in 2019 and 2018, but is completely OMITTED from the table that you provided and the data the supports the estimates. We need to understand how the estimates were calculated at the same time in previous periods. I mean yowza, did we cure cancer and the flu in 2020? It would appear, based on that report, that we damn sure did. No big deal here. Hard to compare data to estimates and hard to compare two different processes. By the way, for this conversation, all my sources were from your links. If one of my employees or contractors gave me a report like the one you linked, and gave me the data to debunk it in the same report, we would be having some interesting conversations. Thanks again.
John Madden Posted January 1, 2022 Posted January 1, 2022 18 minutes ago, The Nehor said: So no acknowledgement that lies were peddled. New claim. And a quick search shows that it is a common argument from a similarly untrustworthy source. The Book of Mormon was spot on with its warning about those who love lies. I am not following your point here. What is your point? Are you saying that the Book of Mormon warned you about people who do math? I missed that book, chapter and verse. Dang.
The Nehor Posted January 1, 2022 Posted January 1, 2022 A lot of the responses are healthcare workers wondering where this person is where they are still accepting transfers. 1
The Nehor Posted January 1, 2022 Posted January 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, John Madden said: I am not following your point here. What is your point? Are you saying that the Book of Mormon warned you about people who do math? I missed that book, chapter and verse. Dang. Finally some honesty.
Danzo Posted January 1, 2022 Posted January 1, 2022 1 hour ago, Chum said: With absolute sincerity - and with exactitude - I hope you will forgive my skepticism that the vaccine was the direct cause of her death (and not an adjacent event). The combination of extraordinarily rare occurrence of severe vaccine reaction and preponderance of debunked vax-death anecdotes has brought me to an unfortunate place - where I can no longer reliably trust what had always been a sacrosanct disclosure. My brother's father in law recently died after receiving his booster(third) shot. About 3 hours after receiving the shot, he began to experience multiple organ failure and he passed away a few days later.
The Nehor Posted January 1, 2022 Posted January 1, 2022 10 minutes ago, John Madden said: Well. Let's start with the data before we get to conclusions. Cool? Your link was a report of ESTIMATES, with several disclosures that the data are not complete or available. However, there were several references to data sources from past years that are available. Specifically, https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db395.htm, and https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db395-tables-508.pdf#page=4 The first thing to do, in my opinion, is to remove the estimates not based on data which is included in the paper you sent. I have had a long enough career to know to walk away from assumptions not based on facts. The next thing is to address the process and make sure we agree on the process. If you look at table 5 of your linked data there is something very revealing in that table. Covid, per the table, has contributed to the causes of death and estimated life expectancy formula negatively, but CANCER had a HUGE improvement. Also, if you compare the links I showed you, influenza was a top ten leading cause of death in 2019 and 2018, but is completely OMITTED from the table that you provided and the data the supports the estimates. We need to understand how the estimates were calculated at the same time in previous periods. I mean yowza, did we cure cancer and the flu in 2020? It would appear, based on that report, that we damn sure did. No big deal here. Hard to compare data to estimates and hard to compare two different processes. By the way, for this conversation, all my sources were from your links. If one of my employees or contractors gave me a report like the one you linked, and gave me the data to debunk it in the same report, we would be having some interesting conversations. Thanks again. Hmmm…..gee, I wonder why there were so few flu cases in the last few years. Sure is a puzzler. Were people doing anything that might have decreased flu transmission? Someone should look into that. 2
The Nehor Posted January 1, 2022 Posted January 1, 2022 Just now, Danzo said: My brother's father in law recently died after receiving his booster(third) shot. About 3 hours after receiving the shot, he began to experience multiple organ failure and he passed away a few days later. Did they do an autopsy to try to determine cause?
John Madden Posted January 1, 2022 Posted January 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, The Nehor said: Finally some honesty. You are clearly a superior person compared to me. The Book of Mormon never made any warnings about you, you are not vulnerable for tarring and feathering, and all your dealings are wholesome and honest. I am just a flawed average person doing flawed average things and having a glorious experience and lots of adventures. My dad smoked when I was a kid and my cars and clothes smelled like cigarettes. My mom was a single mom. My dad was veteran. If I believed people like you, and the stupid sh** you judge and say, I would resent you. But, nah. I am honest. You have said all you need to say. I am not taking this too seriously, by the way. I am taking it at face value for the price invested - a few minutes. Happy New Year. Goodbye. I get it.
Chum Posted January 1, 2022 Posted January 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Danzo said: My brother's father in law recently died after receiving his booster(third) shot. About 3 hours after receiving the shot, he began to experience multiple organ failure and he passed away a few days later. I regret your family's loss and I acknowledge that these things happened in proximity to each other. The absence of death for his previous doses seems to evidence that he wasn't in the extremely small handful of people who experienced extraordinarily rare serious side effects.
Calm Posted January 1, 2022 Author Posted January 1, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Chum said: can remember no other instance when it wasn't safe to accept what we're told w/o question. You mean people now always tell the truth about the grandpa who died in the company of a prostitute and the grandchild dying of an overdose and the spouse getting so drunk, they tripped and drowned in the kiddie pool? I have known smokers and diabetics who refused to admit what was killing them….or rather known their heartbroken family members, some who are angry family members are going along with the lies. Edited January 1, 2022 by Calm
Chum Posted January 1, 2022 Posted January 1, 2022 13 minutes ago, John Madden said: I am not taking this too seriously, by the way. I am taking it at face value for the price invested - a few minutes. It sounds like you are not deeply invested in sowing anti-vax falsehoods that serve to nurture Covid and kill people. In that spirit, may I suggest you stop investing in them? 2
Chum Posted January 1, 2022 Posted January 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, Calm said: You mean people now always tell the truth about the grandpa who died in the company of a prostitute and the grandchild dying of an overdose and the spouse getting so drunk, they tripped and drowned in the kiddie pool? I was being kind of exact in my use of Safe. Sometimes we can let untrue things go without advancing significant harm. 6 minutes ago, Calm said: I have known smokers and diabetics who refused to admit what was killing them. But sometimes we have to measure the harm and decide if correcting the record will mitigate future harm or not. 1
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