The Other Covid Thread

[Tacenda]

3 hours ago, The Nehor said:

Yeah, we don’t go into lockdown due to cancer or car crashes because (and this is very important) cancer and car crashes aren’t contagious.

Bingo!

[Calm]

1 hour ago, rodheadlee said:

If we go on lockdown for every contagious disease that runs through this world we will  be in a permanent lockdown situation. 

We don’t do that. We do it for contagious diseases that are killing or likely to kill an excessive  number of people. And it is partial lockdowns for the most part. That could be avoided with vaccination compliance and social distancing and masking. 

[Harry T. Clark]

39 minutes ago, Calm said:

We don’t do that. We do it for contagious diseases that are killing or likely to kill an excessive  number of people. And it is partial lockdowns for the most part. That could be avoided with vaccination compliance and social distancing and masking. 

I have to disagree with this.  I don't think you can use "avoided" here.  Here is a study that claims the vaccines reduce the effects of the disease but do not stop transmission.  https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8554481/

Even the CDC director admits that the vaccinated can transmit the disease and hence the contagion cannot be avoided through vaccination: 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2021/08/06/cdc_director_vaccines_no_longer_prevent_you_from_spreading_covid.html#!

Omicron defies the vaccines in terms of infection and being transmissible:      https://wskg.org/npr_story_post/vaccine-protection-vs-omicron-infection-may-drop-to-30-but-does-cut-severe-disease/

https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/omicron-severe-mild-disease-uk-data-coronavirus-vaccine/

We are all going to get this regardless, it seems, and so hopefully we can focus more attention on early treatments instead of just vaccines.

 

Edited December 22, 2021 by Harry T. Clark

[Calm]

18 minutes ago, Harry T. Clark said:

Here is a study that claims the vaccines reduce the effects of the disease but do not stop transmission. 

That is why I included masking and social distancing.  I do not see vaccines as a cure all.  Though I should have stated it as “avoided to a greater degree”.

Edited December 22, 2021 by Calm

[Rivers]

We have to learn to live with Covid.  It’s endemic.  Endless lockdowns are only causing more problems.  Yes it sucks, but that’s reality.

 

 

 

 

[The Nehor]

44 minutes ago, Rivers said:

We have to learn to live with Covid.  It’s endemic.  Endless lockdowns are only causing more problems.  Yes it sucks, but that’s reality.

 

 

 

 

It is not endemic. It is not likely to be endemic for at least a few more years (2024 is the year I am hearing). Realistically we may need more “slow the spread” lockdowns in the next few years to try to keep the healthcare system from being overloaded again. Yes, Omicron is less likely to result in hospitalization but it is also more infectious which means more cases and the volume will result in hospitalizations rising.

Omicron is also unlikely to be the last word. This thing is going to keep mutating and if it gets deadlier we may have to take additional measures. The virus doesn’t care how tired we are of dealing with it. Yes it sucks but that is reality.

I am also confused by the “endless lockdowns” bit. There haven’t been “endless lockdowns”. We have had targeted lockdowns.

 

[The Nehor]

4 hours ago, rodheadlee said:

If we go on lockdown for every contagious disease that runs through this world we will  be in a permanent lockdown situation. 

And we don’t. Just the deadly ones. I can’t believe I have to clarify that but we have morons everywhere in the media lying about lockdowns and trying to compare this virus to AIDS and cancer and people are actually listening to them when they should be putting dunce caps on them and mocking them mercilessly.

[bsjkki]

 

Edited December 22, 2021 by bsjkki

[Tacenda]

3 hours ago, Rivers said:

We have to learn to live with Covid.  It’s endemic.  Endless lockdowns are only causing more problems.  Yes it sucks, but that’s reality.

 

 

 

 

I don't agree with lockdowns, but who knows how it may be very necessary. I see what Calm mentioned, social distancing, masks, and the vaccine preventing most lockdowns and school shutdowns. 

[Hamba Tuhan]

1 hour ago, bsjkki said:

It will be interesting to watch how this plays out in real time. As of yesterday, 98.4 per cent of our eligible population is double-vaxxed. Our daily case numbers started really taking off two weeks ago, and each day this week we've set a new record -- mostly driven by Omicron. I just checked, though, and as of yesterday morning, we have no one in ICU, and the number hospitalised is lower than it was all through August, September, October, and November.

Meanwhile, our mask mandate has been reinstated.

[rongo]

If Omicron is "less likely to cause severe illness and hospitalization," why the panic about hospitals being overrun? It seems like the media and government officials are being contradictory with their actions and responses to this.

[Hamba Tuhan]

4 minutes ago, rongo said:

If Omicron is "less likely to cause severe illness and hospitalization," why the panic about hospitals being overrun? It seems like the media and government officials are being contradictory with their actions and responses to this.

It's quite possible. A variant that infects 100 people and puts 10 of them in hospital is not the same as a variant that affects 1,000 people and puts 50 of them in hospital, though the second one is half as 'likely to cause severe illness and hospitalisation'. Locally, however, we simply aren't seeing it play out this way ... yet. Fingers crossed that we won't!

[The Nehor]

15 minutes ago, rongo said:

If Omicron is "less likely to cause severe illness and hospitalization," why the panic about hospitals being overrun? It seems like the media and government officials are being contradictory with their actions and responses to this.

Because we have almost entirely abandoned mitigation efforts to control the virus and Omicron does appear to be more contagious so it is going to hit a lot of people at the same time. We may see people dying who could have been saved because we don’t have the medical resources to treat them.

It doesn’t seem like government and media are being contradictory to anyone following this. There are just people lying about that being the case because they take one data point (less hospitalizations and deaths) and ignore all the rest (lack of mitigation, increased contagiousness, etc) and take that one data point in isolation and pretend everyone who takes the rest into account are liars trying to confuse everyone. They do this because they are lying scum grifting off this whole thing.

[rongo]

17 minutes ago, Hamba Tuhan said:

It's quite possible. A variant that infects 100 people and puts 10 of them in hospital is not the same as a variant that affects 1,000 people and puts 50 of them in hospital, though the second one is half as 'likely to cause severe illness and hospitalisation'. Locally, however, we simply aren't seeing it play out this way ... yet. Fingers crossed that we won't!

I think everyone is waiting to see how it plays out. It just seems like the media and governments have already decided that it's going to be catastrophic --- bit it's milder and doesn't cause nearly the severe illness and hospitalization.

I wonder, too, how people's irrational behavior, borne of the last two years will play out. If hospitals get inundated with people who aren't in real distress, but are panicking because of flu or cold-like symptoms --- and hospitals display DEFCON 1 panic when their rapid tests are positive --- that could stress the system needlessly. 

Hopefully hospitals are good at triaging the hard cases from the light cases. I think a lot of people have been conditioned to panic. I could see people having psychosomatic distress at being discharged because they aren't dire. I wonder if hypochondriac-ism has increased through all this?

Edited December 22, 2021 by rongo

[rongo]

3 minutes ago, The Nehor said:

Because we have almost entirely abandoned mitigation efforts to control the virus and Omicron does appear to be more contagious so it is going to hit a lot of people at the same time. We may see people dying who could have been saved because we don’t have the medical resources to treat them.

It doesn’t seem like government and media are being contradictory to anyone following this. There are just people lying about that being the case because they take one data point (less hospitalizations and deaths) and ignore all the rest (lack of mitigation, increased contagiousness, etc) and take that one data point in isolation and pretend everyone who takes the rest into account are liars trying to confuse everyone. They do this because they are lying scum grifting off this whole thing.

If it truly is much milder, then lack of mitigation efforts shouldn't matter any more than they did during pre-Covid cold and flu season.

I guess we'll see soon enough.

[Rivers]

28 minutes ago, rongo said:

If Omicron is "less likely to cause severe illness and hospitalization," why the panic about hospitals being overrun? It seems like the media and government officials are being contradictory with their actions and responses to this.

A less deadly variant becoming dominant is great news...  If Omicron really is less severe.

[The Nehor]

4 minutes ago, rongo said:

I think everyone is waited Ng to see how it plays out. It just seems like the media and governments have already decided that it's going to be catastrophic --- bit it's milder and doesn't cause nearly the severe illness and hospitalization.

The reports suggest that at best it has about a third as many deaths and hospitalizations. That is still a lot especially if it spreads faster. People aren’t warning that it could be very bad because they salivate at the thought of panic. Being warned it is bad before it is bad allows people to prepare. Expecting the best-case scenario will happen might make people feel better but will also get people killed if it doesn’t happen.

Our ICU capacity is down by around 20% due to staff quitting.

[Hamba Tuhan]

7 minutes ago, rongo said:

It just seems like the media and governments have already decided that it's going to be catastrophic ...

I work as an adviser to a member of our local parliament, so I'm a bit cynical across the board. Media (both legacy and things like social media) are an exercise in marketing, including all the flash and bang that that requires. This is true across the spectrum.

Government is a hard gig. If one tells people things are going to be fine, and they aren't fine, one is in more trouble than if s/he says things might be serious, and they turn out to be less serious.

At the same time, messaging is important. One of the ways of helping make sure the worst-case scenario doesn't materialise is encouraging adherence to common-sense public health measures, but as soon as people hear, 'This may not be catastrophic', many will throw all caution to the wind and contribute to making it more serious than it had to be.

The space where policy intersects psychology is fraught!

Quote

Hopefully hospitals are good at triaging the hard cases from the light cases.

We have home-based care for positive cases that don't require hospitalisation. I'd be dumbfounded if that's not the case in America as well?

[The Nehor]

8 minutes ago, Rivers said:

A less deadly variant becoming dominant is great news...  If Omicron really is less severe.

This. The results are still very preliminary and if it is more infectious and gets more deadly all these promises of “no more lockdowns” are going to come back to bite a lot of people.

[pogi]

6 hours ago, Harry T. Clark said:

I have to disagree with this.  I don't think you can use "avoided" here.  Here is a study that claims the vaccines reduce the effects of the disease but do not stop transmission.  https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8554481/

Even the CDC director admits that the vaccinated can transmit the disease and hence the contagion cannot be avoided through vaccination: 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2021/08/06/cdc_director_vaccines_no_longer_prevent_you_from_spreading_covid.html#!

Omicron defies the vaccines in terms of infection and being transmissible:      https://wskg.org/npr_story_post/vaccine-protection-vs-omicron-infection-may-drop-to-30-but-does-cut-severe-disease/

https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/omicron-severe-mild-disease-uk-data-coronavirus-vaccine/

We are all going to get this regardless, it seems, and so hopefully we can focus more attention on early treatments instead of just vaccines.

 

If we were all vaccinated, transmission of the disease wouldn't be as threatening to health care systems and the public and we wouldn't need to lock down.

Quote

We are all going to get this regardless, it seems, and so hopefully we can focus more attention on early treatments instead of just vaccines.

Hopefully we all get vaccinated.  That is more effective than any early treatment.

Edited December 23, 2021 by pogi

[Hamba Tuhan]

1 hour ago, Hamba Tuhan said:

Our daily case numbers started really taking off two weeks ago, and each day this week we've set a new record -- mostly driven by Omicron. I just checked, though, and as of yesterday morning, we have no one in ICU, and the number hospitalised is lower than it was all through August, September, October, and November.

So today's figures are in, and we have had a 47 per cent increase over yesterday in daily confirmed cases. At the same time, our hospital figures haven't shifted at all. Let's see what happens over the next week. Like I said, this is going to be interesting.

Edited December 23, 2021 by Hamba Tuhan

[bsjkki]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/ushome/index.html

Edited December 23, 2021 by bsjkki

[Harry T. Clark]

2 hours ago, pogi said:

If we were all vaccinated, transmission of the disease wouldn't be as threatening to health care systems and the public and we wouldn't need to lock down.

Hopefully we all get vaccinated.  That is more effective than any early treatment.

We don't need to lock down.  It didn't work.  Compare California to Florida.  The numbers are the same with two different lock down/no lock down policies.  Assuming you disagree with anything that doesn't support continual boosters, how about we test various theories among the states?  You can force vaccines every three months on everyone in your state and let other states use early monoclonal antibody treatments or other regimens recommended by doctors.  Let's see what happens?

[Hamba Tuhan]

1 hour ago, Harry T. Clark said:

Compare California to Florida.  The numbers are the same with two different lock down/no lock down policies.

I don't live in America and have never done this before, so I took up your challenge using data current as of today:

California confirmed cases per million population: 129,486. Florida confirmed cases per million population: 179,117. Conclusion: the rate of confirmed cases in Florida is 38.33 per cent higher in Florida than in California.

California confirmed deaths per million population: 1,928. Florida confirmed deaths per million population: 2,899. Conclusion: the rate of confirmed deaths in Florida is 50.36 per cent higher in Florida than in California.

When you make these false statements -- 'The numbers are the same' -- that can easily be verified, do you just assume that no one will check the figures? Or are you just repeating something you've heard/read somewhere without checking for yourself?

[Rivers]

1 hour ago, Hamba Tuhan said:

I don't live in America and have never done this before, so I took up your challenge using data current as of today:

California confirmed cases per million population: 129,486. Florida confirmed cases per million population: 179,117. Conclusion: the rate of confirmed cases in Florida is 38.33 per cent higher in Florida than in California.

California confirmed deaths per million population: 1,928. Florida confirmed deaths per million population: 2,899. Conclusion: the rate of confirmed deaths in Florida is 50.36 per cent higher in Florida than in California.

When you make these false statements -- 'The numbers are the same' -- that can easily be verified, do you just assume that no one will check the figures? Or are you just repeating something you've heard/read somewhere without checking for yourself?

Ok.  So Florida has had more deaths per million than California.  Fair enough.  But why is this the case?  Is it because California has strict lockdown measures and mask mandates.  Or is it because Florida has more non-vaccinated people?  
If it’s the latter, then it’s the fault of those not getting the vaccine.  And that’s their choice that they freely made.

Now let’s say lockdowns really do work. Maybe they do. Is it worth the cost?  Is the harm we’re causing our children, our society, and the economy really worth it?