Leaked U.K. Attendance Numbers Show Mass Defections and Declining Attendance Prior to Pandemic

[The Nehor]

I served my mission in England in the Manchester area. For most of my mission (all but a few months towards the end) we were the highest baptizing mission in the Europe North area. In that Area that is NOT saying much. I was in many wards then that had 10-15% attendance. There were some unethical baptizers in the years before my service. Many wards I attended were in the 50-75 members attending range. I served in one ward where the entire Melchizedek Priesthood blessed a girl with leukemia including the missionaries. The circle was not crowded. Home and Visitng teaching was borderline impossible due to the activity levels.

I do wonder if this drop is that precipitous. Seems like it is the same as when I was there. That ward I mentioned earlier was folded back into another ward. Made me a little sad. They were dedicated to maintaining that ward as a standalone entity 20 years ago.

[Hamba Tuhan]

8 minutes ago, The Nehor said:

Many wards I attended were in the 50-75 members attending range.

When I first arrived where I live now, there were 37 people in sacrament meeting my first Sunday. I was dumbfounded. I'd been in bigger branches. Later, I went back and checked attendance figures for that quarter: 72 on average.

Then we got a new bishop. I knew we were in for a change when, during our first ward council meeting, he put the Church handbooks (there were two then) on the table and said, 'These will be our guides' When he was released six years later, average sacrament meeting attendance was over 200 per week.

It's not the only factor, for sure, but leadership matters ... especially when it's firmly centred on following prophetic guidance.

[Stargazer]

I'm the stake clerk in my stake here in England. I just had a look at our sacrament attendance figures for 2020 and 2021. There wasn't a pre-pandemic slippage here, as far as I can tell. During 2020 and the height of lockdown things got quite spotty even with recording attendance -- especially since there were no meetings at all for a time, even on Zoom. But generally speaking we're doing pretty much as well as we were before the pandemic. In some wards, we're doing better. Three of our wards are struggling, but these are small wards anyway, and have pretty much always been struggling. 

I have a bit of a baseline, in that I lived in England back in the 1970s when my family lived here due to my father's employment. I even served as the branch clerk during part of that time -- imagine a small branch that was so hard up for leadership that it called a young Aaronic priesthood holder to be the branch clerk! That was my title anyway, but because of my age and so on, I was really just the assistant clerk, with the branch presidency doing the finances. That branch is now a ward, and is kind of the head ward, being that its meetinghouse is the stake center. It's far better off now than it was fifty years ago.

Largely because the huge amount of emigration from England to Zion back in the 19th and 20th century, the most faithful members got siphoned off and so did not contribute to futurity the way they did in the US. Wards and branches in the UK have always had to operate on a shoestring because of factors like this. Even now, we still lose a certain percentage of active members to the US, either through marriage or employment opportunities. Several active families in my own ward have daughters or sons who are married to an American and live in the US now. I suppose I am a rare example of the "reverse siphon", having married a Brit and moved here instead.

Most of the members that I knew back in the 1970s, the ones that are still alive, are still active. The ones in my generation have generally raised active families. Things are not anywhere near as dire as this supposed "leak" is trying to claim.  What does it mean, "mass defections", anyway? I live here. I don't see it. If there were mass defections, believe me, the stake presidency would be having mad discussions about it in our presidency meetings. The subject hasn't come up. Not once in the three years I've been stake clerk. Of course it's possible that there might be regional situations where such things are happening. But my stake president attends periodic regional meetings with other stake presidents, and he has said nothing that might indicate it's happening anywhere. 

Back when I served my mission in Germany (and this happened a bit before 1972), there was a branch of the church in Unna, Germany, that was closed and its members split between a couple of other neighboring wards or branches. The cause of the closure was a cadre of members who coalesced around a couple of other members who claimed to be prophets. The excommunication of some of that cadre and the closure of the branch nipped that apostasy in the bud. There might have been some out there at the time crying "mass defections" and "mass apostasy" because of this event, and running around in circles with their hands waving in the air about it. But that was then, and today Unna has a thriving ward once again.

I suppose there are some who relish "news" like this because it makes them feel vindicated about their own apostasy and fall from belief. I detect a bit of "confirmation bias" here.

 

 

 

[CV75]

18 hours ago, Fair Dinkum said:

Well I didn’t want to out him but if it’s that obvious then yes I can confirm your sleuthing. 

According to Google, he's got a number of podcasts on the subject so I'm not sure about the concern to not out him... I'm still not too satisfied with the correctness of the data/analysis

[CV75]

17 hours ago, Fair Dinkum said:

FB Friends

Ooops maybe you just outed yourself! LOL

 

[Islander]

On 8/23/2021 at 9:14 AM, Fether said:

If this is true, and I have little reason to doubt it, but even less reason to believe it, then this is nothing more than a fulfillment of prophecy and a repeat of what we see in scripture.

When I look at the end of the world, the apocalypse, last days, or whatever you want to call it. I don’t see Gods church being the dominant faith in the world. I see Gods church being only filled with the elect of God, which are small in number.

Of course, there is no certainty as to the reliability of that report. But, in middle America it is a fact that the Church has been in decline for many years. I have been in 3 wards since we left CA in 2010 with zero convert baptisms in 3 years or more. In my current ward 4 years. The list of "less actives" is larger than the weekly sacrament attendance, by far.

The Sermon on the Mount was an early warning trumpet and revelation of things to come: "Enter ye in at the strait gate: for wide is the gate, and broad is the way, that leadeth to destruction, and many there be which go in thereat: Because strait is the gate, and narrow is the way, which leadeth unto life, and few there be that find it." Mat. 7:13-14

 

[poptart]

On 8/23/2021 at 11:20 PM, The Nehor said:

I served my mission in England in the Manchester area. For most of my mission (all but a few months towards the end) we were the highest baptizing mission in the Europe North area. In that Area that is NOT saying much. I was in many wards then that had 10-15% attendance. There were some unethical baptizers in the years before my service. Many wards I attended were in the 50-75 members attending range. I served in one ward where the entire Melchizedek Priesthood blessed a girl with leukemia including the missionaries. The circle was not crowded. Home and Visitng teaching was borderline impossible due to the activity levels.

I do wonder if this drop is that precipitous. Seems like it is the same as when I was there. That ward I mentioned earlier was folded back into another ward. Made me a little sad. They were dedicated to maintaining that ward as a standalone entity 20 years ago.

Is charity handled via di/bishops storehouse over there like it is here?  My hope is when times get bad the church really goes back to its charity, medical and loving kindness core.  Found this, reminded me of how LDS charities operate, at least what I saw of it.

https://www.christianitytoday.com/ct/2020/november-web-only/church-of-england-decline-theos-growing-good-social-action.html

[mfbukowski]

On 8/23/2021 at 8:57 AM, Fair Dinkum said:

Knowing the sacrifices church members have made in the U.K. and to now see them rewarded like this does break my heart

I don't get it

Every post you make makes up negative arguments against the church, and now this "breaks your heart?"

[mfbukowski]

On 8/24/2021 at 4:25 AM, Stargazer said:

I suppose there are some who relish "news" like this because it makes them feel vindicated about their own apostasy and fall from belief. I detect a bit of "confirmation bias" here.

Ahhhhhh! You get the prize! You are a wise man!

[bOObOO]

On 8/23/2021 at 7:39 AM, Fair Dinkum said:

Once the engine of church growth, the pre-pandemic church in the U.K. is now seeing mass defections and declining member attendance. Seen Here nearly every ward and branch is in decline.  The numbers are for entire Stakes. Over all church attendance even before the pandemic is sitting at just 14%*. 14% attendance for the U.K. , that's incredible.  Entire wards are struggling to even get 50 members to attend per month.  Repeat WARDS not branches, branches are even worse.

Is this a canary in the coal mine moment for the church.  If the church can't survive in England, Scotland and Wales how can it ever expect to survive in other 1st world countries.  Evidently the internet is taking a massive toll on the church and the leadership seem to have been caught flat footed with little to nothing to answer with but to pray, pay and obey.

The most devastating pre-pandemic statistic is that most of this exit has been within the last 3 year before the pandemic,  13.17% decline alone.  So the rush to the exit doors is accelerating not waning and there does not seem to be any sign of this exit slowing down.

This break my heart.  I have family in England and they have shared with me their personal stories of the depth of the sacrifices they have made to the church. Many now see their efforts for naught as entire multi generational families have left and have no desire to ever return.

A neighbor confided with me recently on his return from serving a mission in the U.K., he and his wife's entire 18 month mission did not involve any proselyting, instead they spent their entire mission in an attempt to reactivate lapsed members.  He shared this shocking anecdote from a GA who, I will keep unnamed. The GA said, "Worldwide pre-pandemic Church attendance is hovering around 25%  The brethren are worried".   This would make the real church numbers of those who self Identify as Mormon at around 4 Million not the claimed 16 million.

The only bright spot is Africa where the church continues to see strong growth.

*NOTE: The church claims nearly 188,000 members in the U.K. so with only 27,000 attending that equates to 14% attendance.

 

[HappyJackWagon]

On 8/24/2021 at 12:32 AM, Hamba Tuhan said:

When I first arrived where I live now, there were 37 people in sacrament meeting my first Sunday. I was dumbfounded. I'd been in bigger branches. Later, I went back and checked attendance figures for that quarter: 72 on average.

Then we got a new bishop. I knew we were in for a change when, during our first ward council meeting, he put the Church handbooks (there were two then) on the table and said, 'These will be our guides' When he was released six years later, average sacrament meeting attendance was over 200 per week.

It's not the only factor, for sure, but leadership matters ... especially when it's firmly centred on following prophetic guidance.

I think the skills of administration/management of a ward are often overlooked when choosing leaders. I've known some of the most amazing men, gentle, kind, loving, a friend to everyone, who were just terrible leaders. They couldn't run a meeting. Couldn't organize a potluck let alone an organization full of auxiliaries and volunteers. In some cases they were wise enough to choose counselors who were strong where they were weak, but other times, not so much. When any organization is mismanaged, morale suffers as people get frustrated, no matter how likeable the Bishop/SP may be. 

Of course, on the other hand you have those who are very efficient managers but lack any kind of personal touch with the members. Both skills are needed but I rarely hear anyone extol the virtues of good management and administration. In fact, I often hear administration denigrated in favor of ministering as if a ward, or leader couldn't be both.

Sorry-that's always been a little pet peeve of mine  

[bOObOO]

On 8/24/2021 at 4:25 AM, Stargazer said:

I'm the stake clerk in my stake here in England. I just had a look at our sacrament attendance figures for 2020 and 2021. There wasn't a pre-pandemic slippage here, as far as I can tell. During 2020 and the height of lockdown things got quite spotty even with recording attendance -- especially since there were no meetings at all for a time, even on Zoom. But generally speaking we're doing pretty much as well as we were before the pandemic. In some wards, we're doing better. Three of our wards are struggling, but these are small wards anyway, and have pretty much always been struggling. 

I have a bit of a baseline, in that I lived in England back in the 1970s when my family lived here due to my father's employment. I even served as the branch clerk during part of that time -- imagine a small branch that was so hard up for leadership that it called a young Aaronic priesthood holder to be the branch clerk! That was my title anyway, but because of my age and so on, I was really just the assistant clerk, with the branch presidency doing the finances. That branch is now a ward, and is kind of the head ward, being that its meetinghouse is the stake center. It's far better off now than it was fifty years ago.

Largely because the huge amount of emigration from England to Zion back in the 19th and 20th century, the most faithful members got siphoned off and so did not contribute to futurity the way they did in the US. Wards and branches in the UK have always had to operate on a shoestring because of factors like this. Even now, we still lose a certain percentage of active members to the US, either through marriage or employment opportunities. Several active families in my own ward have daughters or sons who are married to an American and live in the US now. I suppose I am a rare example of the "reverse siphon", having married a Brit and moved here instead.

Most of the members that I knew back in the 1970s, the ones that are still alive, are still active. The ones in my generation have generally raised active families. Things are not anywhere near as dire as this supposed "leak" is trying to claim.  What does it mean, "mass defections", anyway? I live here. I don't see it. If there were mass defections, believe me, the stake presidency would be having mad discussions about it in our presidency meetings. The subject hasn't come up. Not once in the three years I've been stake clerk. Of course it's possible that there might be regional situations where such things are happening. But my stake president attends periodic regional meetings with other stake presidents, and he has said nothing that might indicate it's happening anywhere. 

Back when I served my mission in Germany (and this happened a bit before 1972), there was a branch of the church in Unna, Germany, that was closed and its members split between a couple of other neighboring wards or branches. The cause of the closure was a cadre of members who coalesced around a couple of other members who claimed to be prophets. The excommunication of some of that cadre and the closure of the branch nipped that apostasy in the bud. There might have been some out there at the time crying "mass defections" and "mass apostasy" because of this event, and running around in circles with their hands waving in the air about it. But that was then, and today Unna has a thriving ward once again.

I suppose there are some who relish "news" like this because it makes them feel vindicated about their own apostasy and fall from belief. I detect a bit of "confirmation bias" here.

 

 

 

Seems as if we now have conflicting reports.  Who to believe?  You?  or Fair Dinkum and his sources?  I will have to consider this carefully now.

[The Nehor]

On 9/3/2021 at 10:42 AM, mfbukowski said:

I don't get it

Every post you make makes up negative arguments against the church, and now this "breaks your heart?"

Now if only the broken heart could be paired with a contrite spirit.

[SteveO]

On 9/3/2021 at 1:02 PM, HappyJackWagon said:

Both skills are needed but I rarely hear anyone extol the virtues of good management and administration. In fact, I often hear administration denigrated in favor of ministering as if a ward, or leader couldn't be both.

Sorry-that's always been a little pet peeve of mine  

So there’s a little foolishness when critics of the church cynically call it a corporation then?

[secondclasscitizen]

On 9/3/2021 at 10:03 AM, bOObOO said:

Seems as if we now have conflicting reports.  Who to believe?  You?  or Fair Dinkum and his sources?  I will have to consider this carefully now.

I think from here on out all discussion about membership and attendance will be complete speculation. I remember when the church was proud of the “numbers” and would broadcast them over the pulpit as a way of demonstrating unstoppable growth. Now we get crickets. I bet if we were doing as well as we have at least in my lifetime all the good stuff would be public. A leak will surely come along some day and when it does it will be bad. Hide dwindling numbers long enough the losses become shocking when they are revealed.

[2BizE]

2 hours ago, secondclasscitizen said:

I think from here on out all discussion about membership and attendance will be complete speculation. I remember when the church was proud of the “numbers” and would broadcast them over the pulpit as a way of demonstrating unstoppable growth. Now we get crickets. I bet if we were doing as well as we have at least in my lifetime all the good stuff would be public. A leak will surely come along some day and when it does it will be bad. Hide dwindling numbers long enough the losses become shocking when they are revealed.

I agree.  As the numbers started to show real decline in growth rate, the church stopped publishing the numbers that had always been available at the April conference.  The church had the Kirton McKonkie law firm reach out to all of the websites that were providing membership data for them to cease and desist. Most did comply except one, which still provides accurate data:

https://www.fullerconsideration.com

[SteveO]

2 hours ago, 2BizE said:

I agree.  As the numbers started to show real decline in growth rate, the church stopped publishing the numbers that had always been available at the April conference.  The church had the Kirton McKonkie law firm reach out to all of the websites that were providing membership data for them to cease and desist. Most did comply except one, which still provides accurate data:

https://www.fullerconsideration.com

And where is this website, complete with new name and patriarchal blessing “data”, getting their accurate membership data from if the church is no longer publishing it?

[secondclasscitizen]

1 hour ago, SteveO said:

And where is this website, complete with new name and patriarchal blessing “data”, getting their accurate membership data from if the church is no longer publishing it?

People submit info he calls it crowd sourcing. Some he gets from church announcements. I have no idea how accurate all of it is but the new name Oracle was correct for my wife and I. 

[SteveO]

3 minutes ago, secondclasscitizen said:

People submit info he calls it crowd sourcing. Some he gets from church announcements. I have no idea how accurate all of it is but the new name Oracle was correct for my wife and I. 

🙄

[secondclasscitizen]

1 minute ago, SteveO said:

🙄

Did it work for your new name? Try it

[OGHoosier]

3 minutes ago, secondclasscitizen said:

Did it work for your new name? Try it

I'm surprised that I have any capacity left to be disappointed by the antagonistic community, but lo and behold, here we are. 

Edit: Also, regarding your source, your tone seems to have changed just now. 

Quote

The church had the Kirton McKonkie law firm reach out to all of the websites that were providing membership data for them to cease and desist. Most did comply except one, which still provides accurate data:

Becomes:

Quote

I have no idea how accurate all of it is

A little hasty now, hmm?

Edited September 5, 2021 by OGHoosier

[SteveO]

22 minutes ago, OGHoosier said:

I'm surprised that I have any capacity left to be disappointed by the antagonistic community, but lo and behold, here we are. 

Edit: Also, regarding your source, your tone seems to have changed just now. 

Becomes:

A little hasty now, hmm?

Especially since a 30 second search will lead you to this: https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/april-2021-general-conference-statistical-report

[secondclasscitizen]

2 hours ago, OGHoosier said:

I'm surprised that I have any capacity left to be disappointed by the antagonistic community, but lo and behold, here we are. 

Edit: Also, regarding your source, your tone seems to have changed just now. 

Becomes:

A little hasty now, hmm

What?that’s not my source. I searched the source the previous poster posted and tried it. You are attributing my tone or whatever to the wrong guy. You need to go back and look who posted the link. Attention to detail prevents an appearance of being too hasty perhaps. Hmmm

Edited September 5, 2021 by secondclasscitizen

[JustAnAustralian]

2 hours ago, SteveO said:

Especially since a 30 second search will lead you to this: https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/april-2021-general-conference-statistical-report

And one of the most famous blogs I've seen about it seems to be going still too http://ldschurchgrowth.blogspot.com/

[OGHoosier]

23 hours ago, secondclasscitizen said:

What?that’s not my source. I searched the source the previous poster posted and tried it. You are attributing my tone or whatever to the wrong guy. You need to go back and look who posted the link. Attention to detail prevents an appearance of being too hasty perhaps. Hmmm

Nah, I don't buy it. You provided a source and declared that it gave "accurate information." @SteveO asked how the source is getting their information. You responded with the following: 

On 9/5/2021 at 3:20 PM, secondclasscitizen said:

People submit info he calls it crowd sourcing. Some he gets from church announcements. I have no idea how accurate all of it is but the new name Oracle was correct for my wife and I.

You mean to tell me you were just referring to some third-party source rather than the one you provided and about which SteveO inquired?