Hamba Tuhan Posted January 12, 2022 Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, pogi said: The area presidency in Utah has contacted all wards and told them to stream church - thank you! We have stake council tomorrow night, and I suspect we may be discussing this. At this point, we are well within public health guidelines regarding gatherings, but our stake president is a cautious man. Our stake youth conference has now been postponed, which was a decision take by the stake youth council (comprised of youth from each ward plus stake advisers). With our high vaccination rate (currently 98.6 per cent of those eligible) and our almost total compliance with public health measures (masking, social distancing, etc.), I personally think we should continue with in-person church for those who want to attend. (We haven't stopped streaming services since we resumed in August.) Our daily case numbers have been spiking since mid-December, with thousands of new cases each week. Our hospitalisation rate has followed somewhat but seems to have plateaued in the low 20s. We did have a death this week, our first since early December. 2
Calm Posted January 12, 2022 Author Posted January 12, 2022 (edited) 5 hours ago, pogi said: 3 of the 15 deaths were from last month Do we know if delta or omicron? Is delta significant enough in Utahit could be driving those numbers? Added: from your last post iirc, it seems like you are saying you believe it is primarily delta driven and will be for awhile. Edited January 12, 2022 by Calm
pogi Posted January 12, 2022 Posted January 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, Calm said: Do we know if delta or omicron? Is delta significant enough in Utahit could be driving those numbers? Almost certainly Delta. It will probably take a couple more weeks to see death numbers from Omicron playing into the numbers much. That was my point I was trying to make with what's-his-bucket who claimed that Omicron was already driving down deaths and hospitalizations. Not that I have seen yet. 3
Hamba Tuhan Posted January 12, 2022 Posted January 12, 2022 An interesting development in one Canadian province: 'Quebec to impose a tax on people who are unvaccinated from COVID-19'. Quote “A health contribution will be charged to all adults that don’t want to get vaccinated. We are there now,” he said. Legault said he felt the ire of the vaccinated towards the unvaccinated, whom he blamed for clogging up the province’s hospitals. Only 10 per cent of the population is unvaccinated but they make up 50 per cent of patients in intensive care beds, according to the premier ... Legault said there will be an exemption for those who can’t be vaccinated for medical reasons. The government is still working out the amount that will have to be paid, but Legault said it would be “significant.” “All Quebec adults who refuse in the coming weeks to at least get a first dose, will be getting a bill,” he said. 3
Calm Posted January 12, 2022 Author Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Hamba Tuhan said: An interesting development in one Canadian province: 'Quebec to impose a tax on people who are unvaccinated from COVID-19'. Makes sense to me. The amount could be unjust though. If insurance costs go up because of a significant amount of people choose to smoke, would it seem unfair to charge the smokers a higher premium?
Danzo Posted January 12, 2022 Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/10/2022 at 8:22 AM, bluebell said: That the medical has now become political is incredibly stupid. As a country we have lost our minds. medical became political the moment it used government to control people. (which started happening long before covid).
bluebell Posted January 12, 2022 Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Danzo said: medical became political the moment it used government to control people. (which started happening long before covid). I think we've just gotten really dumb as a people and have reached the stage where we will willingly cut off our noses to spite our faces. When George Washington mandated that all soldiers in the revolutionary army be inoculated against smallpox (because he knew that most of the british soldiers already had been and that he would be at a distinct disadvantage trying to fight a war with his army dying from a disease while the other army wasn't), it didn't become a huge political issue. And it didn't become a partisan issue either. We can't blame the government on this mess. Sure, they contributed to it but only in the sense that the government is made of people and people right now have lost their minds. On both sides of the isle. 1
Rivers Posted January 12, 2022 Posted January 12, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, bluebell said: When George Washington mandated that all soldiers in the revolutionary army be inoculated against smallpox (because he knew that most of the british soldiers already had been and that he would be at a distinct disadvantage trying to fight a war with his army dying from a disease while the other army wasn't), it didn't become a huge political issue. And it didn't become a partisan issue either. Aren’t soldiers required to get certain vaccines today? George Washington didn’t impose vaccination on the entire American population. 1 hour ago, bluebell said: We can't blame the government on this mess. Sure, they contributed to it but only in the sense that the government is made of people and people right now have lost their minds. On both sides of isle. Agreed. On one side we have Covidians. On the other we have the Covidiots. I criticize both. Both extremes have caused a lot of harm. Edited January 12, 2022 by Rivers
pogi Posted January 12, 2022 Posted January 12, 2022 (edited) We broke 10,000 cases in Utah today with 10,220 positive cases. Over 1 in 3 people who are testing are positive (35.5% positivity rate). That is insane! An increase of 29 hospitalizations with Covid since yesterday and 14 More deaths. Things are no bueno right now on the Covid front in Utah. Utah's new COVID-19 case count surpasses 10K on Wednesday | KSL.com Edited January 12, 2022 by pogi
bluebell Posted January 12, 2022 Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Rivers said: Aren’t soldiers required to get certain vaccines today? George Washington didn’t impose vaccination on the entire American population. From what I understand, what General Washington did was technically against the law, but congress saw the wisdom in it so allowed it. And no one, that I am aware of, has ever imposed a vaccine mandate on the entire american population. All the mandates that we currently have are only for certain people, as they are connected to certain types of activities. I believe the same was true for past vaccine mandates that have existed.
bluebell Posted January 12, 2022 Posted January 12, 2022 55 minutes ago, pogi said: We broke 10,000 cases in Utah today with 10,220 positive cases. Over 1 in 3 people who are testing are positive (35.5% positivity rate). That is insane! An increase of 29 hospitalizations with Covid since yesterday and 14 More deaths. Things are no bueno right now on the Covid front in Utah. Utah's new COVID-19 case count surpasses 10K on Wednesday | KSL.com But our ICU bed usage has gone down since last Friday, so that's good news. Unless it's from ICU patients dying, which it could be. Then I guess the only good news is that they aren't being replaced at the same rate. Hopefully this will burn itself out quickly, as it has in other countries. My kids' elementary school (Davis Co) had zero covid cases since before Christmas break. Today I got an email saying that we now have one positive case. This is actually the lowest case count that we've had all school year. Though I know we are likely to see a spike in the next few days.
Calm Posted January 12, 2022 Author Posted January 12, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, pogi said: Over 1 in 3 people who are testing are positive (35.5% positivity rate). That is insane! Are they testing automatically in the majority or is it mostly self selected? If people are pretty educated by now on what is and isn’t Covid and are only choosing to get tested if they are pretty sure it is Covid, that is different than when everyone was clueless and panicking or getting tested for work. I would like to see the numbers separated out between required tested and self selected. Is that possible? I have no doubt lots and lots of infections out there as the tests make it clear the numbers are there, just wish we had a randomized set to compare to for better accuracy on the percentage of the population as a whole that is infected. It would also be nice to know Delta vs Omicron…but my guess is if self selected it is higher on Delta in relation to the general population as more likely to be symptomatic as I understand it. Edited January 12, 2022 by Calm
T-Shirt Posted January 12, 2022 Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, pogi said: We broke 10,000 cases in Utah today with 10,220 positive cases. Over 1 in 3 people who are testing are positive (35.5% positivity rate). That is insane! An increase of 29 hospitalizations with Covid since yesterday and 14 More deaths. Things are no bueno right now on the Covid front in Utah. Utah's new COVID-19 case count surpasses 10K on Wednesday | KSL.com I'm pretty sure when deaths are announced, they are not all from one day. They update deaths from previous days according to the date of death. According to the State's website, deaths peaked on Oct 30th with a seven day average of 14.4 and they have been on a steady decline since. They are currently at a seven day average of 5.3 which is lower (except for a slight dip December 30th) than it has been since Jul 31st of last year. The numbers of the last few days will undoubtedly be updated, but not drastically. The trend on deaths is still down. Hopefully that will continue.
pogi Posted January 13, 2022 Posted January 13, 2022 (edited) 50 minutes ago, T-Shirt said: They are currently at a seven day average of 5.3. The graph indicates that the numbers of deaths from the beginning of July are not yet fully accounted for in the graph. They have consistently been above 10 every day for quite a while now, and that is factoring out deaths reported late. Edited January 13, 2022 by pogi
pogi Posted January 13, 2022 Posted January 13, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Calm said: Are they testing automatically in the majority or is it mostly self selected? If people are pretty educated by now on what is and isn’t Covid and are only choosing to get tested if they are pretty sure it is Covid, that is different than when everyone was clueless and panicking or getting tested for work. I would like to see the numbers separated out between required tested and self selected. Is that possible? I have no doubt lots and lots of infections out there as the tests make it clear the numbers are there, just wish we had a randomized set to compare to for better accuracy on the percentage of the population as a whole that is infected. It would also be nice to know Delta vs Omicron…but my guess is if self selected it is higher on Delta in relation to the general population as more likely to be symptomatic as I understand it. This is a cumulative number of all tests performed that day in the state. They are voluntary and self selected tests. 35% is ridiculously high. 5% is the threshold that indicates an infectious disease is under control in a population. With my experience, I am probably more knowledgeable and able to diagnose Covid than any doctor in Utah. I have literally assessed the symptoms of thousands upon thousands of Covid patients. I, more than most, know what all the multitude of faces of Covid looks like. Despite that fact, there is no way I could distinguish it from the cold, the flu, seasonal allergies, or any other respiratory illness without relying on a test - with the exception of loss of smell and taste. That is the only dead giveaway. With Omicron, that doesn’t seem to be a prevalent symptom though. There is literally no way to know without testing. That is why these numbers are not significantly affected by the fact that they are self selected for testing. I can’t tell you how tired of my patients telling me they just have a cold. “Have you tested for Covid?” I ask. “No”. “Please leave my office and go get tested.” There is a one in 3 chance they have Covid if they test. Many try to convince me that they are having allergies...in January. Hello! Go get tested. This is partly why this is so out of control. People try to self diagnose and they are spreading it like rice at a wedding. 35% positivity demonstrates that not enough people are testing and are walking around thinking they have a cold or allergies. If everyone with any symptoms tested, positivity rates would drop significantly and we would more effectively be able to control spread through contact tracing measures. We clearly don’t have testing capacity for those kinds of numbers though, so it is just going to burn itself out. There is no reasonable way to control Omicron. Edited January 13, 2022 by pogi 1
Calm Posted January 13, 2022 Author Posted January 13, 2022 43 minutes ago, pogi said: I can’t tell you how tired of my patients telling me they just have a cold. “Have you tested for Covid?” I ask. “No”. “Please leave my office and go get tested.” Thank you for the info. Very interesting.
Calm Posted January 13, 2022 Author Posted January 13, 2022 (edited) 48 minutes ago, pogi said: Many try to convince me that they are having allergies...in January. My main allergy is dust mites, so definitely can be year around. It gets worse depending on quality of sleep as I don’t have enough energy to keep a dust mite free bedroom. Also air pollution can trigger same symptoms…there is someone who burns wood or coal in the neighborhood and if I don’t notice soon enough and shut my window (yes, window is opened even if only a crack in the coldest of winter these days until the house gets cool enough my bedroom can be in low 60’s, high 50’s). Not sure if that counts as allergies or irritants though. Edited January 13, 2022 by Calm
T-Shirt Posted January 13, 2022 Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, pogi said: The graph indicates that the numbers of deaths from the beginning of July are not yet fully accounted for in the graph. They have consistently been above 10 every day for quite a while now, and that is factoring out deaths reported late. Are you looking at the same thing I am?
Calm Posted January 13, 2022 Author Posted January 13, 2022 A little out of date, but I hadn’t come across this before: Quote One peculiar phenomenon that has developed out of this recent landscape is that some people have started looking for information on how to “detox” from the vaccine after they have received it, particularly if they had not wanted to have it in the first place. A TikTok video featuring claims that people who had had the COVID-19 vaccine should take complex “detox” baths, containing, among other things, borax, hit the headlines in November. However, that video was not the only example of emerging claims that people should detox from the vaccine to avoid unwanted side effects. Suggestions for “detoxes” after receiving a COVID-19 vaccine ranged from borax baths to detox diets. Suggested detox diets included high fat diets to “bind the toxins” in the vaccines, alongside supplements, including zinc and vitamins C and D. According to some media reports, some even suggested cupping the site of the injection to remove the vaccine. More extreme claims suggest that people who have had the vaccine need to take a prophylactic dose of ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine to counteract what they believe to be a negative impact of the vaccine on their immune system. The FDA does not authorize the use of ivermectinTrusted Source or hydroxychloroquineTrusted Source to combat COVID-19 but rather advises against using ivermectin for this purpose. While the rise of this misinformation may seem baffling to some, Prof. Monica Gandhi, professor of medicine at the University of California San Francisco and an HIV doctor, feels that social media is partly to blame. Speaking to Medical News Today, she pointed to the fact that there was always misinformation about HIV from high profile academics, and at one point, the President of South Africa, “but it didn’t end up having this reach that you can have when you have social media platforms, with people with MD and Ph.D. after their names who are allowed to put out there that mRNA and proteins stay around in your body, that it is toxic and that it kills other cells.” https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/can-you-detox-from-the-covid-19-vaccine#Vaccinated-but-still-hesitant
Calm Posted January 13, 2022 Author Posted January 13, 2022 I have no clue how to evaluate the accuracy of this model, but thought it interesting anyway… https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2787935 Quote Compared with the no vaccination scenario, the actual vaccination campaign saved an estimated 240 797 (95% CrI, 200 665-281 230) lives and prevented an estimated 1 133 617 (95% CrI, 967 487-1 301 881) hospitalizations from December 12, 2020, to June 30, 2021. The number of cases averted during the same period was projected to exceed 14 million. Vaccination prevented a wave of COVID-19 cases driven by the Alpha variant that would have occurred in April 2021 without vaccination (Figure 1), with a projected peak of 4409 (95% CrI, 2865-6312) deaths and 17 979 (95% CrI, 13 191-23 219) hospitalizations. Under the second counterfactual with daily vaccination rates at half the reported pace, we projected that the US would have still endured an additional 77 283 (95% CrI, 48 499-104 519) deaths and 336 000 (95% CrI, 225 330- 440 109) hospitalizations (Figure 2).
Robert J Anderson Posted January 13, 2022 Posted January 13, 2022 4 hours ago, pogi said: This is a cumulative number of all tests performed that day in the state. They are voluntary and self selected tests. 35% is ridiculously high. 5% is the threshold that indicates an infectious disease is under control in a population. With my experience, I am probably more knowledgeable and able to diagnose Covid than any doctor in Utah. I have literally assessed the symptoms of thousands upon thousands of Covid patients. I, more than most, know what all the multitude of faces of Covid looks like. Despite that fact, there is no way I could distinguish it from the cold, the flu, seasonal allergies, or any other respiratory illness without relying on a test - with the exception of loss of smell and taste. That is the only dead giveaway. With Omicron, that doesn’t seem to be a prevalent symptom though. There is literally no way to know without testing. That is why these numbers are not significantly affected by the fact that they are self selected for testing. I can’t tell you how tired of my patients telling me they just have a cold. “Have you tested for Covid?” I ask. “No”. “Please leave my office and go get tested.” There is a one in 3 chance they have Covid if they test. Many try to convince me that they are having allergies...in January. Hello! Go get tested. This is partly why this is so out of control. People try to self diagnose and they are spreading it like rice at a wedding. 35% positivity demonstrates that not enough people are testing and are walking around thinking they have a cold or allergies. If everyone with any symptoms tested, positivity rates would drop significantly and we would more effectively be able to control spread through contact tracing measures. We clearly don’t have testing capacity for those kinds of numbers though, so it is just going to burn itself out. There is no reasonable way to control Omicron. What's the point of getting tested when it is just like a cold? What difference does it make if you know that you have omicron or only have a cold when the symptoms are practically the same? Treatment doesn't change whether it is a cold or omicron. So, why does it matter? Are people more reckless if they think they have a cold? When I had a cold prior to covid, I tried to stay away from people and I think people still do. I don't think anyone wants to infect others, just like they didn't want to prior to covid. I was sick for the last two weeks in December. I didn't get tested but stayed away from others while I was sick. Am I missing something?
Robert J Anderson Posted January 13, 2022 Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, Calm said: I have no clue how to evaluate the accuracy of this model, but thought it interesting anyway… https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2787935 This is a simulation. I don't know how reliable simulations are.
Calm Posted January 13, 2022 Author Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, Robert J Anderson said: What's the point of getting tested when it is just like a cold? What difference does it make if you know that you have omicron or only have a cold when the symptoms are practically the same? https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2787975 Not just like a cold…. Quote Findings This cohort study of 24 114 participants found that community-living middle-aged and older adults with confirmed, probable, or suspected COVID-19 had nearly 2-fold higher odds of worsening mobility and physical function compared with adults without COVID-19, although most participants with COVID-19 had mild to moderate disease and were not hospitalized. Meaning These findings suggest that individuals with mild and moderate COVID-19 who were predominantly not hospitalized experienced deficits in functional mobility compared with those without COVID-19 1
strappinglad Posted January 13, 2022 Posted January 13, 2022 Well friends, it is likely that chickens have come home to rest on my balcony. Am feeling flu-ish with a few aches and pains, a bit of a fever, slight headache, and tummy problems. I am keeping well hydrated an going easy on the food. I am fully vaccinated and if things progress. I have an at home test to use. Funny, I have attended church only by Zoom for the last 2 years , but last Sunday I attended my grandson's AP ordination. The bishop is a doctor and he shook hands with us all. We wore masks most of the time but the brethren took them off to get a photo. 30 seconds max. Ya , I know. OOPS ! 2
Snodgrassian Posted January 13, 2022 Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 10:27 AM, Stargazer said: Here's an example of the censorship that exists. Dr. Malone was the principal force behind the development of the mRNA vaccines that I, and many others, have benefitted from. But because he has opinions that buck the "approved narrative" he was banned from Twitter, and now YouTube has removed Joe Rogan's interview of him. This is NOT science. This is political correctness, and ultimately, propagandistic control over media and information. To what end, I ask? The suppression of false information, or the suppression of true information? Just in case it hasn't been noticed, these big media companies, including the traditional media conglomerates of ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN, as well as new media, such as Google, YouTube, Twitter, and Facebook, are all sitting on the same side of the debate, have control over the content they permit on their platforms, and have demonstrated full willingness to suppress information they don't agree with, and promote that which they do agree with. They have also tried to suppress competing platforms that either permit alternative voices, or prefer alternate voices. That is dangerous. Are Dr. Malone's opinions right or wrong? I'll be honest, I haven't followed him at all, and I don't have an opinion. But the effort to silence him is telling, I think. A large group of medical professionals have issued an open letter to Spotify requesting that they remove the Joe Rogan Experience with Dr. Malone episode(s), the letter contains many links to fact check the claims and claimed misinformation: https://spotifyopenletter.wordpress.com/2022/01/10/an-open-letter-to-spotify/ And an APNews article digging in a bit deeper: https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-science-health-joe-rogan-ap-fact-check-a87b1044c6256968dcc33886a36c949f The "I'm just asking questions..." strategy is becoming a force be reckoned with.
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