The Other Covid Thread

[Robert J Anderson]

1 hour ago, pogi said:

Thanks for posting the real article which is contrary to the original claim, and is in fact a strawman to any argument made here. 

It has long been known (since Israel - one of the most vaccinated country in the world - is still transmitting the virus at fairly high rates) that vaccination efficacy against infection/transmission is very short lived, and is most efficacious against severe Covid, hospitalization, and death.  Other studies suggest that protection against infection/transmission is higher than what was found in this study, but I am not aware of anyone claiming that vaccinated persons can't spread the disease.

The claim was that death and hospitalization rates for Covid are higher among the vaccinated.  Are you defending that?  It is sad that articles like this one are fraudulently being edited and spread online with bogus claims - the things people resort to downplay the vaccine!

 

 

I'm not defending that death/hospital rates are higher among the vaccinated.  Everything I've seen shows otherwise.  Maybe it'll change in the future as the percentage of the vaccinated goes up (if and when all are vaccinated then all hospitalizations/deaths will then be among the vaccinated), but, I looked and haven't seen where the rates are higher among the vaccinated at this time.

[pogi]

25 minutes ago, Robert J Anderson said:

I'm not defending that death/hospital rates are higher among the vaccinated.  Everything I've seen shows otherwise.  Maybe it'll change in the future as the percentage of the vaccinated goes up (if and when all are vaccinated then all hospitalizations/deaths will then be among the vaccinated), but, I looked and haven't seen where the rates are higher among the vaccinated at this time.

Thanks for that.  I will note however that "rates" of Covid hospitalization/death among the vaccinated will never be higher than the unvaccinated, even if total numbers are higher.  We will never reach 100% vaccination rates. 

Good explanation here:

21 hours ago, bsjkki said:

Because you used the word 'rates,' I would conclude this is not accurate. If you had used just overall numbers, many places are crossing the axis. This thread explains. New York categorizes their data by vaxxed and unvaxxed per 100,000. The raw data might show more vaxxed are actually in the hospital. COVID-19 Breakthrough Data | Department of Health (ny.gov)   This is from Ontario, Cananda. You can see how the information can be distilled in different ways. Read the whole thread for a clear picture. The unvaxxed are being admitted at higher rates even though the vaxxed might be hosptilized in higher numbers.  This was expected to happen. If ninety percent of a population is vaccinated, it's hard not to have the vaxxed make up higher admissions. This does not prove there is no benefit from the vaccine in preventing hospitalization and death. England also has more deaths and hospitalizations among vaccinated people but not higher rates. Vaccinated individuals have lower rates of hospitalization. 

 

Edited January 10, 2022 by pogi

[Hamba Tuhan]

6 hours ago, pogi said:

I will note however that "rates" of Covid hospitalization/death among the vaccinated will never be higher than the unvaccinated, even if total numbers are higher.

I saw a link earlier today to data from the Texas Department of State Health Services. The report doesn't pick up the Omicron wave, but it's certainly clear before that:

Quote

From September 4 through October 1, 2021:

• Unvaccinated people were 13 times more likely to become infected with COVID-19 than fully vaccinated people.
• Unvaccinated people were 20 times more likely to experience COVID-19-associated death than fully vaccinated people ...

Vaccination had a strong protective effect on infections and deaths among people of all ages. The protective impact on infections was consistent across adult age groups and even greater in people ages 12 to 17 years. The protective impact on COVID-19 deaths, which was high for all age groups, varied more widely. In the September time frame, unvaccinated people in their 40s were 55 times more likely to die from COVID-19 compared with fully vaccinated people of the same age. Unvaccinated people aged 75 years and older were 12 times more likely to die than their vaccinated counterparts [emphasis added].

 

Edited January 11, 2022 by Hamba Tuhan

[carbon dioxide]

My COVID test came back positive today.  Got infected sometime last week.  Has been nothing more than a moderate head cold and it seems to be getting better.  I give credit to the 3 vaccination shots I got.  My wife also got 3 shots, has more health issues than me and is getting over it as well.  Everything in life is a risk.  Whatever risks may that exist with the vaccines is small compared to the alternative. 

Edited January 11, 2022 by carbon dioxide

[rodheadlee]

On 1/9/2022 at 5:38 PM, pogi said:

Can you show me how many have died under 75?   Shall we discount those?  75 is still young.  I don’t understand why people are playing down premature deaths if they are over 75.  This seems so numb to what is happening.  This kind of death is not like other respiratory diseases, as claimed.  I am so tired of people downplaying a near 1 million deaths as if it is no big deal.

 

Somewhere in the Old Testament the time given the man after the flood was 72 years. Anything more than that is frosting on the cake. If you CFR me, it'll be a day or so before I can look it up.

 

[bsjkki]

Risk Factors for Severe COVID-19 Outcomes Among Persons Aged ≥18 Years Who Completed a Primary COVID-19 Vaccination Series — 465 Health Care Facilities, United States, December 2020–October 2021 | MMWR (cdc.gov)

[bsjkki]

 

[Calm]

2 hours ago, bsjkki said:

 

Were they listed as Covid hospitalizations?  
 

More detail…

Quote

Noble said that when she reviewed the charts on Jan. 4 at four UCSF campuses (UCSF Parnassus, Mission Bay, Mount Zion and Children’s Hospital of Oakland), she identified 44 hospitalized patients (both adults and children) with COVID. Of those, just 13 were admitted because of COVID. “I do not expect that number to increase substantially, or become unmanageable in the coming week," she wrote. “The death rate in California is actually falling. And the predicted peak of cases is only about a week away.”

The remaining 31, or 70%, of patients tested positive after being admitted for unrelated reasons, including a hip fracture and a bowel obstruction. They’re all “completely asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic,” Noble said.

“[Emergency departments] are flooded with the worried well that are simply seeking testing and reassurance,” she added. “I have not intubated a single COVID patient during this Omicron surge. We have a total of 5 patients with COVID on ventilators across our 4 hospitals. An average of 1.25 intubated COVID patients per hospital is a good news story."

If they were infected with Covid, it is necessary to identify that as well as any other likely infectious diseases so as to isolate them to prevent the spread to others no matter why they are there.  This will create some additional costs for protective gear and possibly rooms set aside for infectious diseases.  So to know the total of those who are infected in a hospital is important to know what level of protective gear and measures are needing to be taken.

Otoh, if what is being intended to be portrayed is serious Covid illnesses that are adding patients to be cared for rather than just complicating care for patients with other issues, then asymptotic or mild Covid illness that is incidental should not be used in the total Covid infection numbers, but rather the subcategory of serious Covid (primary or secondary) IMO and moderate if it is affecting care significantly.

Preventative treatment of Covid (I assume in some cases of mild Covid discovered with or after admission for another cause, doctors will choose to step in to prevent it moving to a serious complication) probably should be separated in the numbers from active care or whatever the technical term is.

Edited January 11, 2022 by Calm

[Calm]

2 hours ago, bsjkki said:

 

Quote

On Saturday, in response to hospitals begging for relief from a massive staffing crisis, the California Department of Public Health announced that most hospitals and skilled nursing facilities can bring COVID-positive and exposed staff back to work without testing or quarantines. The staffers must be asymptomatic, are required to wear N95 masks and are encouraged to work with patients who are already COVID-positive as much as possible. 

Quote

Head of COVID response for UCSF's ER dept.: 'I have not intubated a single COVID patient during this Omicron surge'

Assuming she is not being fudgy here and is someone who would be intubating patients if needed, this is good news and the change in Covid infections should be made useful, especially since a possibly more dangerous variant could surface later (but let’s hope not).  Using this apparent breathing space where it occurs and not just apply a one size fits all response (I understand some areas are still dealing with delta) seems like it would be reasonable (we should always dependent on the best data we have for our current decisions, so I may say ‘forget what I just said’ if it turns out her conclusions were premature).  I don’t think it a bad idea to continue relatively easy limitations like decent mask wearing and social distancing when able in case there are stray delta cases around that could flare up and so we won’t be completely blindsided by a homegrown variant that gets ignored till too big to quash.  Where limitations are interfering with patient care, realistic appraisal rather than wishful or ‘traditional’ (as in been in use for delta or other variants).

In fact, I would like it if in quieter times and areas if the government surveyed first responders and essential medical workers (anyone needed to keep things going, but not necessarily everyone who works at a hospital or clinic) for what changes would mean the most to them…my guess would be if they had kids, getting back safely to the usual daycare routines as well as easing limitations that added significant time and effort on their part that are no longer showing a higher ‘reward’ benefit for the cost.  Then I would focus on the needs of workers where shortages or limitations are causing or likely will cause essential supplies bottlenecks and again do a cost benefit analysis in terms of will this prevent more illness and dysfunction than it will cause.

Quote

Local health departments have the option to implement stricter procedures and follow prior guidance.

This also makes sense if there are unusual needs in a community (say there is a high density of older or vulnerable residents) or a local breakout they want to make sure is not spreading or even to prevent spreading.  I am curious if local health departments are more vulnerable to public pressure though, but as long as it is only stricter, seems like even with pressure it could work well.  If the majority want stricter rules, they will likely be willing to make the sacrifices, so no blaming later on.

Edited January 11, 2022 by Calm

[pogi]

Another record day in Utah (seems to be the new normal). 

Quote

SALT LAKE CITY — Utah health officials reported a record 9,813 new COVID-19 cases on Tuesday, as well as 15 deaths.
...and the average positive rate of those tested is 33.6%, the Utah Department of Health said.

3 of the 15 deaths were from last month.  I don't think we have ever had that high of a positivity rate that I can remember.  That means that the reported numbers are WAY low and community spread is rampant with many not testing (likely due to insane lines) and 1/3 of those who do test are positive...that is CRAZY!

Hospital ICU's remain above functional capacity.  Still waiting for that dip in deaths and hospitalizations.  

https://www.ksl.com/article/50326112/another-record-day-for-covid-in-utah-as-9813-cases-confirmed

Quote

Due to the current COVID-19 situation with widespread cases of the omicron variant of the disease, Laurie Stringham, chairwoman of the Salt Lake County Council, announced Monday she would not call a special session to vote to overturn a mask mandate ordered last week for Salt Lake County by Dr. Angela Dunn, executive director at Salt Lake County Health Department.

 

Edited January 11, 2022 by pogi

[bsjkki]

1 hour ago, pogi said:

Another record day in Utah (seems to be the new normal). 

3 of the 15 deaths were from last month.  I don't think we have ever had that high of a positivity rate that I can remember.  That means that the reported numbers are WAY low and community spread is rampant with many not testing (likely due to insane lines) and 1/3 of those who do test are positive...that is CRAZY!

Hospital ICU's remain above functional capacity.  Still waiting for that dip in deaths and hospitalizations.  

https://www.ksl.com/article/50326112/another-record-day-for-covid-in-utah-as-9813-cases-confirmed

 

It is crazy how many people are getting covid. Vaxx status doesn't matter. I hope Omicron chases out Delta. I think many of the hospitalized cases are still Delta. Colorado has a very high positive test percentage too. With Omicron, I definitely know more vaxxed and boosted individuals getting covid. I think we have 2 more weeks of this. What's your guess? We now have a zoom link for church again and they begged people not to attend if they feel ill at all.

[Chum]

19 minutes ago, bsjkki said:

It is crazy how many people are getting covid. Vaxx status doesn't matter. I hope Omicron chases out Delta.

Hoping it works that way. My sister texted me today that she has it. She's immunocompromised but the ride has been fairly mild.

[Hamba Tuhan]

2 minutes ago, Chum said:

My sister texted me today that she has it. She's immunocompromised but the ride has been fairly mild.

My eldest sister-in-law (with many health issues) also has it. She's triple-vaxxed and is already starting to improve. She was very sick last week (before the positive test result). Without vaccination, she's certain she would be in hospital.

[T-Shirt]

2 hours ago, pogi said:

Still waiting for that dip in deaths and hospitalizations.  

According to the dashboard, hospitalizations have increased a bit, but have been fairly flat, with a couple of dips, since the middle of Sept.  Deaths, on the other hand, have been and continue to be on a steady decline since the end of Oct.

[Chum]

45 minutes ago, Hamba Tuhan said:

My eldest sister-in-law (with many health issues) also has it. She's triple-vaxxed and is already starting to improve. She was very sick last week (before the positive test result). Without vaccination, she's certain she would be in hospital.

Ditto here. Very glad she takes it seriously.

[Chum]

25 minutes ago, T-Shirt said:

Deaths, on the other hand, have been and continue to be on a steady decline since the end of Oct.

That doesn't seem to be true.

[T-Shirt]

5 minutes ago, Chum said:

That doesn't seem to be true.

I was referring to Utah, sorry I wasn't very clear.

Edited January 12, 2022 by T-Shirt

[Chum]

1 hour ago, bsjkki said:

Vaxx status doesn't matter.

For severity it does. For infection, [insert every possible answer here].

[T-Shirt]

Looking at cases alone, there is a similar pattern in most states.  Using 7 day averages per million, here are the statistics of a few random States:

New York - 3775

Mass - 3543

Florida - 3003

Illinois - 2497

Colorado - 2475

Utah - 2462

California - 2267

Vermont (the most vaccinated state) - 2080

There are several States with lower numbers than Vermont

 

Edited January 12, 2022 by T-Shirt

[Chum]

1 minute ago, T-Shirt said:

I was referring to Utah

Give it time. It'll get there. Deaths are laggy as expected.

Florida has been trying it's best and our diligence is just starting to be reflected in our death stats - again. Go us.

[T-Shirt]

Florida is doing very well in death statistics.  I hope it continues.

[Chum]

1 minute ago, T-Shirt said:

Florida is doing very well in death statistics.  I hope it continues.

The continuation is that newest baby upswing - following the other indicators right on time and were expected. Patience! We never fail at this.

Oh and our gov is pleased with all the increases too. Experience = Outcomes!

[Hamba Tuhan]

Never mind. Misread.

Edited January 12, 2022 by Hamba Tuhan

[pogi]

2 hours ago, T-Shirt said:

According to the dashboard, hospitalizations have increased a bit, but have been fairly flat, with a couple of dips, since the middle of Sept.  Deaths, on the other hand, have been and continue to be on a steady decline since the end of Oct.

I see a long trend upwards since July according to John Hopkins, which you usually prefer to reference it seems.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/us/utah

The last couple weeks have seen above 10 deaths/day on average.  Those are not yet all factored into the dashboard graph.  Also, a lot of deaths from December were reported late, so I'm not sure how that all factors into the graphs from the dashboard and John Hopkins.  But based on daily reports for the last several weeks, I am not seeing a decline at all below 10/day, as was the claim. 

ICU's are over functional capacity.  That is not a good place to remain fairly flat.  

I don't think Omicron has even been around long enough to play into death stats anyway.  The claim was made that deaths have been on the decline due to Omicron.  I am suggesting that death is a lagging indicator and we need more time.  So far, daily reports seem to be hovering around 10/day (higher lately), and has been for a long time.  There was a dip towards the end of December, but that is likely due to late holiday reporting.  

If you look from Sept 9 through today, the average looks to be around 10/day, like I have been saying. 

Edited January 12, 2022 by pogi

[pogi]

2 hours ago, bsjkki said:

It is crazy how many people are getting covid. Vaxx status doesn't matter. I hope Omicron chases out Delta. I think many of the hospitalized cases are still Delta. Colorado has a very high positive test percentage too. With Omicron, I definitely know more vaxxed and boosted individuals getting covid. I think we have 2 more weeks of this. What's your guess? We now have a zoom link for church again and they begged people not to attend if they feel ill at all.

I am guessing that we will just be at our peak in about 2 weeks, and still have a long way down the other side.  If immunizations are not significantly reducing infection rates and if natural immunity cannot stand up against Omicron either, than it is basically like a virus spreading through a completely immune-naive population (with better protection against hospitalization and death at least).  That is a lot of fuel to burn through.  But it is a FAST burning fire. 

The area presidency in Utah has contacted all wards and told them to stream church - thank you!  My parents ward in Highland shut down completely for 3 weeks due to an unprecedented outbreak in their ward.