Slowest Church Growth Rate Since the Great Depression

[Johnnie Cake]

With the announced 261,862 growth in church membership taking total church membership to  15,634,199 for an annual growth rate of 1.7% the church continued it's downward growth trend reaching a growth rate not seen since the Great Depression or 78 years...

what is most striking is this downward trend is despite the increase in missionary numbers to historic levels...but the convert to missionary ratio hit a new low

 

thoughts?

Edited April 2, 2016 by Johnnie Cake

[ksfisher]

One could ask if the growth rate would not have been even lower without the increase in the number of missionaries. 

[Dgal]

15 minutes ago, Johnnie Cake said:

With the announced 261,862 growth in church membership taking total church membership to  15,634,199 for an annual growth rate of 1.7% the church continued it's downward growth trend reaching a growth rate not seen since the Great Depression or 78 years...

what is most striking is this downward trend is despite the increase in missionary numbers to historic levels...but the convert to missionary ratio hit a new low

 

thoughts?

All Christian denominations are seeing the downward trend. I think it's reflective of the secular cultural at large. Plus, with the internet, people will spend time researching anything that they are interesting in or curious about. The Essays should be helpful to some degree, but I am one who thinks the leadership needs to be even more transparent. People don't make serious decisions based on what someone else tells them, even if it's someone baring their testimony. Testimonies don't have the power to convert anymore.

[Scott Lloyd]

I've already expressed my thoughts on another thread but will paste them in here:

7 hours ago, Scott Lloyd said:

It's not news that converts-per-missionary rates have fallen. One could debate, however, the reasons for this.

I'm not willing at this point to concede that today's missionaries don't work as hard as those in the past or that the teaching and contact methods are not as good as those of yesteryear. I think it's too easy to jump to those conclusions, and there are other factors to be considered

I know it's anecdotal, but it's my impression from observing my missionary son who has been serving just over six months, that he works as hard or harder than I ever did when I served in the same mission (Sweden) some 40 years ago. I'm amazed at the number of street contacts he makes, for example. I was always uncomfortable with street contacting, especially when I was at the point in my mission where he is and I still lacked confidence in my language proficiency. And I have no reason to believe my son is an outlier in terms of his work ethic, diligence or obedience.

And the methods and principles in the era of Preach My Gospel are far better than at any point in the history of missionary work; I'm convinced of that.

My personal belief is that the world at large has grown more secularized today than ever -- some of us would say more prideful, wicked and unreceptive -- and that it requires our best efforts in missionary work just to keep pace, even with a larger missionary force doing the work. All this is consistent with what was foretold in Nephi's vision (1 Nephi 14), whereby the devil and his minions would have dominion over all the earth, among all nations, kindreds, tongues and people, and that the church of the Lamb of God would be over all the face of the earth but that its numbers would be few by reason of the influence of the devil and his followers  

So I don't worry unduly about converts-to-missionary ratios so long as we are putting forth our best efforts. We'll continue to take the gospel to all who will receive us in preparation for the coming of the Lord in glory.

 

Edited April 2, 2016 by Scott Lloyd

[rodheadlee]

22 minutes ago, Johnnie Cake said:

With the announced 261,862 growth in church membership taking total church membership to  15,634,199 for an annual growth rate of 1.7% the church continued it's downward growth trend reaching a growth rate not seen since the Great Depression or 78 years...

what is most striking is this downward trend is despite the increase in missionary numbers to historic levels...but the convert to missionary ratio hit a new low

 

thoughts?

When it reaches 0% then the missionaries are done and that's why they call it the End Times.

[Johnnie Cake]

6 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said:

I've already expressed my thoughts on another thread but will paste them in here:

Thanks for sharing.  When I was recently in Stockholm I ran into some missionaries. I asked how the work was going, while remaining positive, they both expressed  frustration with the secular swedes.  Neither had been involved with a baptism but that's not unusual for Sweden 

[JLHPROF]

Right on schedule I'd say.
No prophecy ever claimed an exponentially growing church.
In fact, prophecy claims a point when the Church will begin hemorrhaging members and a heart's core will be left.

[Johnnie Cake]

15 minutes ago, rodheadlee said:

When it reaches 0% then the missionaries are done and that's why they call it the End Times.

Really?  it's a sign of end times?  I don't believe that

[JLHPROF]

3 minutes ago, Johnnie Cake said:

Really?  it's a sign of end times?  I don't believe that

Why not?  There are prophecies to that effect.
 

[rpn]

I would think during the end times, there will be increasing people reaching out for God.   The trick is always to find those who are among increasing struggles, increasing reticence to put one's faith out there for all to see, and less safety outside the home, and in the community at large.

[sunstoned]

1 hour ago, rodheadlee said:

When it reaches 0% then the missionaries are done and that's why they call it the End Times.

Do you really think it really ever get that bad for the church? 

[mapman]

I think its more important to look at the number of congregations since that reflects growth in active members of the church, not just baptisms. I quote from the LDS Church Growth Blog:

"Although these findings for membership growth appear concerning, some significant positive LDS growth developments occurred during 2015. First, the Church reported the largest net increase in the number of congregations, and the highest percentage increase in congregations, since 2005. Second, the Church reported the most commensurate membership and congregational growth since 1998. In other words, the rates of membership and congregational growth were the most similar since 1998.As a result, the average number of members per congregation in the worldwide church barely increased from 519 to 521. Third, the Church has sustained steady increases in the number of stakes within the past five years (approximately 50-60), whereas the Church reported smaller net increases in the number of stakes in the 2000s (approximately 30-40).

In conclusion, the results of the 2015 Annual Statistical Report suggests that the Church has achieved good improvements in convert retention and local leadership development at the expense of fewer converts baptized. Greater "real growth" has appeared to occur that emphasizes quality instead of quantity - otherwise we would expect to see similar declines in LDS statistical measurements that reflect member activity rates (e.g. stakes and congregations). Rapid LDS growth in several African nations, where higher convert retention and member activity rates occur, have also likely affected LDS growth trends in the worldwide Church and may explain some of these improvements."

http://ldschurchgrowth.blogspot.com/2016/04/2015-statistical-report.html

[readstoomuch]

The number of baptisms/growth is going to always start a debate in the Internet age.  Whether the number is big or small, I hope they are taught well, fellow shipped well, receive a witness, and stay active in the cause.  I do think the numbers continue to argue for more service to be performed by the missionaries.  The previous president was supportive, but not as much as we would have liked in our ward mission.  The new president makes the old president look stellar in his support.  Some of the service opportunities slipped away as the new president made things tougher.  The Church continues to make new rules that make the missionaries job harder as a litigious society searches for ways to create a lawsuit.  The service if it is able to grow will help the proselyting work go forward.  The missionaries would do well to be fully integrated into the ward.  Right now the ward really does not have much say in the missionary work.  That is my opinion.  

Edited April 3, 2016 by readstoomuch

[Robert F. Smith]

2 hours ago, Dgal said:

All Christian denominations are seeing the downward trend. I think it's reflective of the secular cultural at large. Plus, with the internet, people will spend time researching anything that they are interesting in or curious about. The Essays should be helpful to some degree, but I am one who thinks the leadership needs to be even more transparent. People don't make serious decisions based on what someone else tells them, even if it's someone baring their testimony. Testimonies don't have the power to convert anymore.

Yes, secularism is powerful, but testimony is still primary.  Nearly all LDS conversions are based on missionary testimonies confirmed by the Holy Spirit.  In other words, they are not based on doctrinal, theological, or historical considerations -- which few people are capable of addressing anyhow.  A good deal of this missionary activity now takes place online (via skype), which does represent a major shift.  Another shift is away from burned over missionary areas, such as Europe, to far more fertile fields, such as Africa -- where the Church is growing rapidly.  Thus, a temporary slice of worldwide conversion rates tells us little about what is actually going on in specific areas, nor does it reflect the oscillatory growth rates over time.

Transparency is good, but has nothing to do with conversions.

[JLHPROF]

45 minutes ago, sunstoned said:

Quote

When it reaches 0% then the missionaries are done and that's why they call it the End Times.

Do you really think it really ever get that bad for the church? 

Yes.

President Brigham Young:
Do you think there is calamity abroad now among the people? Not much. All we have yet heard and all we have experienced is scarcely a preface to the sermon that is going to be preached. When the testimony of the Elders ceases to be given, and the Lord says to them, "Come home; I will now preach my own sermons to the nations of the earth," all you now know can scarcely be called a preface to the sermon that will be preached with fire and sword, tempests, earthquakes, hail, rain, thunders and lightnings, and fearful destruction. What matters the destruction of a few railway cars? You will hear of magnificent cities, now idolized by the people, sinking in the earth, entombing the inhabitants. The sea will heave itself beyond its bounds, engulfing mighty cities. Famine will spread over the nations, and nation will rise up against nation, kingdom against kingdom, and states against states, in our own country and in foreign lands. (Journal of Discourses, Vol. 8, p. 123, July 15, 1860)

 

Elder Orson Pratt:
When God has called out the righteous, when the warning voice has been sufficiently proclaimed among tile Gentile nations, and the Lord says, "It is enough," he will also say to his servants—"O, ye, my servants, come home, come out from the midst of these Gentile nations, where you have labored and borne testimony for so long a period; come out from among them, for they are not worthy; they do not receive the message that I have sent forth, they do not repent of their sins, come out from their midst, their times are fulfilled. Seal up the testimony among them and bind up the law." (Journal of Discourses, Vol. 18, p. 64, July 25, 1875)

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[CV75]

2 hours ago, Dgal said:

I am one who thinks the leadership needs to be even more transparent.

 

14 minutes ago, Robert F. Smith said:

Yes, secularism is powerful, but testimony is still primary.  Nearly all LDS conversions are based on missionary testimonies confirmed by the Holy Spirit.

***

Transparency is good, but has nothing to do with conversions.

Transparency and testimony can be one and the same. Brigham Young said, “Those who were acquainted with him [Joseph Smith] knew when the Spirit of revelation was upon him, for his countenance wore an expression peculiar to himself while under that influence. He preached by the Spirit of revelation, and taught in his council by it, and … at such times there was a peculiar clearness and transparency in his face.” (Journal of Discourses, 9:89)

[Duncan]

Speaking of Sweden I have a really funny and true story about missionary work there

[strappinglad]

We see in the changing demographics the fulfillment of prophecy about the " first shall be last and the last shall be first. " Who were the last people to receive the fullness of the gospel? They will grow in numbers and in power over the next few decades. Who were the first people in this dispensation to receive the fullness of the gospel? They will begin to dry up and fade away.

[Storm Rider]

I pray it is the end times.  It is not just a secular society, but an evil culture pervades the "first" world.  

[JLHPROF]

2 minutes ago, Storm Rider said:

I pray it is the end times.  It is not just a secular society, but an evil culture pervades the "first" world.  

I know people like to argue, but if you are a faithful, believing member, is there really any doubt?  Just turn on the tv.

[Johnnie Cake]

6 minutes ago, strappinglad said:

We see in the changing demographics the fulfillment of prophecy about the " first shall be last and the last shall be first. " Who were the last people to receive the fullness of the gospel? They will grow in numbers and in power over the next few decades. Who were the first people in this dispensation to receive the fullness of the gospel? They will begin to dry up and fade away.

 

59 minutes ago, JLHPROF said:

Yes.

President Brigham Young:
Do you think there is calamity abroad now among the people? Not much. All we have yet heard and all we have experienced is scarcely a preface to the sermon that is going to be preached. When the testimony of the Elders ceases to be given, and the Lord says to them, "Come home; I will now preach my own sermons to the nations of the earth," all you now know can scarcely be called a preface to the sermon that will be preached with fire and sword, tempests, earthquakes, hail, rain, thunders and lightnings, and fearful destruction. What matters the destruction of a few railway cars? You will hear of magnificent cities, now idolized by the people, sinking in the earth, entombing the inhabitants. The sea will heave itself beyond its bounds, engulfing mighty cities. Famine will spread over the nations, and nation will rise up against nation, kingdom against kingdom, and states against states, in our own country and in foreign lands. (Journal of Discourses, Vol. 8, p. 123, July 15, 1860)

 

Elder Orson Pratt:
When God has called out the righteous, when the warning voice has been sufficiently proclaimed among tile Gentile nations, and the Lord says, "It is enough," he will also say to his servants—"O, ye, my servants, come home, come out from the midst of these Gentile nations, where you have labored and borne testimony for so long a period; come out from among them, for they are not worthy; they do not receive the message that I have sent forth, they do not repent of their sins, come out from their midst, their times are fulfilled. Seal up the testimony among them and bind up the law." (Journal of Discourses, Vol. 18, p. 64, July 25, 1875)

---

How does this correlate with elder packers claim that Christ will not return in any of our lifetimes?  Seems those ends times are in the waiting line

[JLHPROF]

4 minutes ago, Johnnie Cake said:

How does this correlate with elder packers claim that Christ will not return in any of our lifetimes?  Seems those ends times are in the waiting line

Elder Packer's claim is not scriptural.

Matt 24: 36 ¶But of that day and hour knoweth no man, no, not the angels of heaven, but my Father only.

If the angels in heaven don't know, I guarantee Elder Packer didn't either.  He may have believed that, and it may make some feel better, but the time is far spent.

[PeterPear]

8 minutes ago, JLHPROF said:

Elder Packer's claim is not scriptural.

Matt 24: 36 ¶But of that day and hour knoweth no man, no, not the angels of heaven, but my Father only.

If the angels in heaven don't know, I guarantee Elder Packer didn't either.  He may have believed that, and it may make some feel better, but the time is far spent.

Silly.

Helaman 14:2       Cannot the Lord reveal the year without the day or hour?

[carbon dioxide]

3 hours ago, rpn said:

I would think during the end times, there will be increasing people reaching out for God.   The trick is always to find those who are among increasing struggles, increasing reticence to put one's faith out there for all to see, and less safety outside the home, and in the community at large.

I think its all part of the pride cycle.  Right now people generally live prosperous, comfortable lives.  When the real wars, famines, plagues, earthquakes, come that disrupt everyday lives, then the people will start turning to God.  Nothing moves a person to God faster than a little or a lot of fear.  If climate change is happening, it will be a good thing for the people.  I have heard prophecies that say when things are really in turmoil, many of the people who are not members of the Church will go to where the members are gathered simply for safety.  Perhaps many will convert at that point when they see that the secular world offers them little other than eventual death and destruction;.

[carbon dioxide]

To me the issue is not the number of baptisms but retention.  If baptism numbers are down but we are retaining more members, that is far better than more baptisms and less retention.