Slowest Church Growth Rate Since the Great Depression

[rodheadlee]

5 hours ago, Johnnie Cake said:

 

The end is not near, senior LDS apostle Boyd K. Packer said Saturday.

Today's youths can look forward to "getting married, having a family, seeing your children and grandchildren, maybe even great-grandchildren," Packer told more than 20,000 Mormons gathered in the giant LDS Conference Center in downtown Salt Lake City.

 

 

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There is a simple explanation. The Second Coming of Christ is not the end of the world. It's the end of Satan's time on earth for a 1000 years, it's a time of great tribulation. It's the end of not having Christ on Earth to lead us in person. It's the end of preaching the Gospel with only the Holy Spirit to confirm it.It's the end of a lot of things but it is not the end of the world. A thousand years is plenty of time to get married and have a few generations come forth. The End of the World as we know it will come after the thousand year reign of Christ when the Earth is burned up and recreated as a Celestial Kingdom. Here is the full quote.

 

"Sometimes you might be tempted to think as I did from time to time in my youth: “The way things are going, the world’s going to be over with. The end of the world is going to come before I get to where I should be.” Not so! You can look forward to doing it right—getting married, having a family, seeing your children and grandchildren, maybe even great-grandchildren.

If you will follow these principles, you will be watched over and protected and you yourself will know by the promptings of the Holy Ghost which way to go, for “by the power of the Holy Ghost ye may know the truth of all things.”¹⁶ I promise you that it will be so and invoke a blessing upon you, our precious youth, in the name of Jesus Christ, amen."

Nothing he said negates what I said.

 

 

[stemelbow]

Not particularly fond of the "all is well in zion" approach to this issue.  it seems obvious our message is not resonating.  I've said this here many times before.  We will learn more and more people want to know if we love others moreso than if we are proud of ourselves.  It feels like to me the message of the Church is so much about telling everyone we are a light.  It's almost a sad insecure practice we're about. 

Things will change.  I'm sure of it.  But it's interesting how it's all playing out.  the amount of decline in our growth rate is staggering and it's about time we accept the decline is because of ourselves. 

[Jude2]

Perhaps we’ll have to bring back plural marriage. 

4the Nephi
 10 And now, behold, it came to pass that the people of Nephi did wax strong, and did multiply exceedingly fast, and became an exceedingly fair and delightsome people.
11 And they were married, and given in marriage, and were blessed according to the multitude of the promises which the Lord had made unto them.

[pcarthew]

On 4/2/2016 at 9:13 AM, Johnnie Cake said:

With the announced 261,862 growth in church membership taking total church membership to  15,634,199 for an annual growth rate of 1.7% the church continued it's downward growth trend reaching a growth rate not seen since the Great Depression or 78 years...

what is most striking is this downward trend is despite the increase in missionary numbers to historic levels...but the convert to missionary ratio hit a new low

 

thoughts?

Who knows when the Savior will return.  There are so many scriptures which talk about the condition of the earth, a good one is in 1NE 14:12  

And it came to pass that I beheld the church of the Lamb of God, and its numbers were few, because of the wickedness and abominations of the whore who sat upon many waters; nevertheless, I beheld that the church of the Lamb, who were the saints of God, were also upon all the face of the earth; and their dominions upon the face of the earth were small, because of the wickedness of the great whore whom I saw.

It is very clear that in the last days, the church will be challenged when it comes to our numbers.  In places like Africa, the church puts the brakes on baptisms.  The church still baptises but there are challenges there that require special attention and care for the church to be sustainable and successful long term.  Our focus must remain on keeping our covenants and doing our individual part in sharing the gospel.  It's the Lord's church He will look after the rest.

[rockpond]

11 hours ago, stemelbow said:

Not particularly fond of the "all is well in zion" approach to this issue.  it seems obvious our message is not resonating.  I've said this here many times before.  We will learn more and more people want to know if we love others moreso than if we are proud of ourselves.  It feels like to me the message of the Church is so much about telling everyone we are a light.  It's almost a sad insecure practice we're about. 

Things will change.  I'm sure of it.  But it's interesting how it's all playing out.  the amount of decline in our growth rate is staggering and it's about time we accept the decline is because of ourselves. 

The reactions to the data are interesting to watch... when numbers increase, it is part of the plan/prophecy; when numbers decrease it is also part of the plan/prophecy.

We used to hear messages about the phenomenal growth of the church and how that was fulfilling the prophecy of the stone cut without hands filling the earth.

Recently we've heard about the great increase in missionaries and how it is evidence of the hastening of the work of the Lord.

This conference we rejoiced in the increase in the number of temples, highlighting how far we have come in President Monson's life.

Meanwhile, 2015 gave us fewer converts, fewer new children of record, and a lower overall growth rate.

[JLHPROF]

30 minutes ago, rockpond said:

The reactions to the data are interesting to watch... when numbers increase, it is part of the plan/prophecy; when numbers decrease it is also part of the plan/prophecy.

That's because they are.

The first prophecies you mention are that missionaries would take the gospel to all the world.  Not quite there yet, but pretty close.  The prophecy never specifies limited methods of doing this.  With the internet and LDS.org, the worldwide broadcast of conference, the missionaries, heck, even boards like this one, pretty much anyone who wants to learn about Mormonism and the Church can do so.

The second prophecies you mention are that people will begin to leave the Church, the earth will ripen in iniquity, the missionaries will be called home, etc.

These are not mutually exclusive - we are just trying to determine which of the two stages we are in or if they are overlapping.
Despite what some may think, people leaving the Church or fewer missionaries is not a sign the Church is out of step.  It is just a fulfillment of prophecy.

[rockpond]

3 minutes ago, JLHPROF said:

That's because they are.

The first prophecies you mention are that missionaries would take the gospel to all the world.  Not quite there yet, but pretty close.  The prophecy never specifies limited methods of doing this.  With the internet and LDS.org, the worldwide broadcast of conference, the missionaries, heck, even boards like this one, pretty much anyone who wants to learn about Mormonism and the Church can do so.

The second prophecies you mention are that people will begin to leave the Church, the earth will ripen in iniquity, the missionaries will be called home, etc.

These are not mutually exclusive - we are just trying to determine which of the two stages we are in or if they are overlapping.
Despite what some may think, people leaving the Church or fewer missionaries is not a sign the Church is out of step.  It is just a fulfillment of prophecy.

I don't think that they are mutually exclusive.  I think the people see whatever they want to see in the data.

[JLHPROF]

Just now, rockpond said:

I don't think that they are mutually exclusive.  I think the people see whatever they want to see in the data.

I think, just as we've always done (with admittedly mixed results) "people" are just trying to determine where on the prophecy timeline we fall at this moment in time.

[Johnnie Cake]

43 minutes ago, JLHPROF said:

I think, just as we've always done (with admittedly mixed results) "people" are just trying to determine where on the prophecy timeline we fall at this moment in time.

While I completely understand why you have concluded that the fall in converts is a sign of the times...It does raise a few questions in my mind.

 

01. What if there is a reversal in growth and the church sees a surge in converts in 2016, then what happens to your end of days conclusion? How then do you interprete this current slowing in growth?

02. What if the trend stabilizes and the trend remains at around the 1.70% growth rate...how does that affect your premise?

03. And what about the future...what if the prophecy turns out to be false and the earth just continues on it merry way...then what?  How are we to interpret the slowing of church growth?  Can there ever be a time or situation when we have to ask if there is something wrong with the message that fails to reach its intended target audience?

 

Edited April 4, 2016 by Johnnie Cake

[JLHPROF]

28 minutes ago, Johnnie Cake said:

While I completely understand why you have concluded that the fall in converts is a sign of the times...It does raise a few questions in my mind.

01. What if there is a reversal in growth and the church sees a surge in converts in 2016, then what happens to your end of days conclusion? How then do you interprete this current slowing in growth?

Then the timeline of prophecy hasn't progressed as far as some have thought, and the current slowing in growth is little more than a sign of saturation which would naturally result in ups and downs..

02. What if the trend stabilizes and the trend remains at around the 1.70% growth rate...how does that affect your premise?

It makes no difference.  I am not saying definitively that the slowdown means the end times.  I AM saying that there will be a peak and a drop off at some point.  We don't know if we have reached that point yet or not.  The entire world isn't going to be converted so eventually there has to be a slowdown.

03. And what about the future...what if the prophecy turns out to be false and the earth just continues on it merry way...then what?  How are we to interpret the slowing of church growth?  Can there ever be a time or situation when we have to ask if there is something wrong with the message that fails to reach its intended target audience?

If prophecy turns out to be false and the end times never arrive I don't know why we would follow Mormonism.  It IS a millennialist religion after all.
And while there can be something wrong with the message, as long as the message is Christ and the restoration, there is nothing wrong with it.
The flaw in your thinking appears to be that if the message were perfect more people would convert.  That is simply not true - there is too much wickedness for that. 

 

 

[Tacenda]

Oops, wrong thread!

Edited April 4, 2016 by Tacenda

[JLHPROF]

1 minute ago, Tacenda said:

I don't like the us and them analogy.   Or IOW, the only true church. It always caused me to feel uncomfortable around non members or inactive  members.  So glad I don't believe it like that, not saying it's the wrong church.  Just thst others are right also.

Changed my life, I guess I was a terrible mormon,  and may have gave off a vibe that didn't help our image.  Seriously felt uncomfortable, maybe not because I thought we were better, but worried people thought we thought that.

Boy, you must hate reading the scriptures.

All that talk Christ did of wheat and tares, sheep and goats, left hand and right hand.
And don't get me started on God choosing specific groups as favorites and destroying the rest.

They should have been much more inclusive.  I guess Christ should have realized that the Pharisees were "right also".

[Tacenda]

3 minutes ago, JLHPROF said:

Boy, yo simplert must hate reading the scriptures.

All that talk Christ did of wheat and tares, sheep and goats, left hand and right hand.
And don't get me started on God choosing specific groups as favorites and destroying the rest.

They should have been much more inclusive.  I guess Christ should have realized that the Pharisees were "right also".

You may be right.  I loved reading the Ensign a lot though.  All the church publications, much simpler. 

[Scott Lloyd]

5 hours ago, rockpond said:

The reactions to the data are interesting to watch... when numbers increase, it is part of the plan/prophecy; when numbers decrease it is also part of the plan/prophecy.

There's no reason why both can't be true.

For the gospel to be over all the face of the earth, there has to be some measure of increase in numbers. We couldn't have done it with a few thousand people centered in the Rockies.

The numbers are not decreasing. The rate of growth is slowing, but that also is in line with prophecy: The church of the Lamb of God would be over all the face of the earth but would be few in number. And that's true today, relatively speaking.

Quote

We used to hear messages about the phenomenal growth of the church and how that was fulfilling the prophecy of the stone cut without hands filling the earth.

I think there has been some misunderstanding and over claiming on this point, largely due to the projections a couple of decades ago by non-Mormon sociologist Rodney Stark, whose theories have since been disputed. I personally believe the prophecy of the stone filling the whole earth will not have its complete fulfillment until after the Second Coming of Christ. The prophecies and scriptures do not presuppose numerical dominance by the Church in the years leading up to the Millennium.

Quote

Recently we've heard about the great increase in missionaries and how it is evidence of the hastening of the work of the Lord.

This conference we rejoiced in the increase in the number of temples, highlighting how far we have come in President Monson's life.

All of which is true.

Quote

Meanwhile, 2015 gave us fewer converts, fewer new children of record, and a lower overall growth rate.

Which should not be all that surprising, considering how the world is languishing in wickedness by reason of the influence of Satan -- which in itself is a fulfillment of prophecy.

To paraphrase Charles D-i-c-k-ens, it is the best of times and the worst of times.

Not sure what you are trying to convey with your post. Are you trying to highlight contradictions? I so, I don't think you have succeeded.

 

Edited April 4, 2016 by Scott Lloyd

[rockpond]

5 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said:

There's no reason why both can't be true.

For the gospel to be over all the face of the earth, there has to be some measure of increase in numbers. We couldn't have done it with a few thousand people centered in the Rockies.

The numbers are not decreasing. The rate of growth is slowing, but that also is in line with prophecy: The church of the Lamb of God would be over all the face of the earth but would be few in number. And that's true today, relatively speaking.

I think there has been some misunderstanding and over claiming on this point, largely due to the projections a couple of decades ago by non-Mormon sociologist Rodney Stark, whose theories have since been disputed. I personally believe the prophecy of the stone filling the whole earth will not have its complete fulfillment until after the Second Coming of Christ. The prophecies and scriptures do not presuppose numerical dominance by the Church in the years leading up to the Millennium.

All of which is true.

Which should not be all that surprising, considering how the world is languishing in wickedness by reason of the influence of Satan -- which in itself is a fulfillment of prophecy.

To paraphrase Charles D-i-c-k-ens, it is the best of times and the worst of times.

Not sure what you are trying to convey with your post. Are you trying to highlight contradictions? I so, I don't think you have succeeded.

 

I've only ever heard of Rodney Stark from you.  I was speaking of the general perceptions from my four decades of membership.

And I wasn't highlighting contradictions.  As I mentioned in a follow up post, I was showing that people see whatever they want in the data.

If next conference, President Monson announced ten new temples, I have no doubt that we would celebrate the hastening of the work.

If, on the other hand, we announced no new temples over the next few years and a plan to re-purpose a couple of the Utah temples into stake centers, I imagine we'd blame the world languishing in wickedness from the influence of Satan.

The pattern of concluding that whatever the data says is a fulfillment of prophecy and God's plan could prevent us from learning anything useful.  Though, it is possible that the Brethren are paying attention to the data in a way that is not reflected among the responses here.

[JLHPROF]

3 minutes ago, rockpond said:

If next conference, President Monson announced ten new temples, I have no doubt that we would celebrate the hastening of the work.

If, on the other hand, we announced no new temples over the next few years and a plan to re-purpose a couple of the Utah temples into stake centers, I imagine we'd blame the world languishing in wickedness from the influence of Satan.

I'll give you this one.
We as members definitely do this.

I've often said it is a flawed idea among SOME members that the work will continue to grow exponentially, the world becoming more and more righteous till the Savior returns to his people.  NOT accurate.

It is true the prophecies speak of the gospel being taken to all the world (at first).  But then they speak of an end to that prior to the return of the Savior when the world becomes too wicked.

All we do is try to figure out which stage we are in - the first or the second.

[Scott Lloyd]

11 minutes ago, rockpond said:

I've only ever heard of Rodney Stark from you.  I was speaking of the general perceptions from my four decades of membership.

Forget Rodney Stark then. It's still over claiming to suggest the Church will achieve numerical dominance in the world at any time prior to the Second Coming. The scriptures don't compel that conclusion.

Quote

And I wasn't highlighting contradictions.  As I mentioned in a follow up post, I was showing that people see whatever they want in the data.

And I contend that what you are suggesting, directly or implied, is a false dichotomy.

Quote

 

If next conference, President Monson announced ten new temples, I have no doubt that we would celebrate the hastening of the work.

If, on the other hand, we announced no new temples over the next few years and a plan to re-purpose a couple of the Utah temples into stake centers, I imagine we'd blame the world languishing in wickedness from the influence of Satan.

 

Well, if that happens I suppose we'll deal with it then.

Quote

The pattern of concluding that whatever the data says is a fulfillment of prophecy and God's plan could prevent us from learning anything useful.  Though, it is possible that the Brethren are paying attention to the data in a way that is not reflected among the responses here.

I don't concede that we are being prevented "from learning anything useful," not by a thoughtful consideration of what the scriptures actually say (as opposed to what some individuals think they say.

Edited April 4, 2016 by Scott Lloyd

[rockpond]

1 minute ago, Scott Lloyd said:

Forget Rodney Stark then. It's still over claiming to suggest the Church will achieve numerical dominance in the world at any time prior to the Second Coming. The scriptures don't compel that conclusion.

I've never made such a claim.  Nor even implied such.

 

2 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said:

And I contend that what you are suggesting, directly or implied, is a false dichotomy.

There's a surprise.

 

2 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said:

Well, if that happens I suppose we'll deal with it then.

Seems that we are dealing with it right now.  Kinda my point.

 

2 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said:

I don't concede that we are being prevented "from learning anything useful," not by a thoughtful consideration of what the scriptures actually say (as opposed to what some naysayers claim they say).

If one decides, a priori, that a data set is telling them exactly what they expected... it is unlikely that they are making an unbiased, technical analysis of that data.

I'm certainly not suggesting we ignore the scriptures.  I'm cautioning against "proof texting" the data (so to speak).

 

[Gray]

On 4/3/2016 at 10:31 PM, carbon dioxide said:

To me the issue is not the number of baptisms but retention.  If baptism numbers are down but we are retaining more members, that is far better than more baptisms and less retention. 

I think to a certain extent that might be what is happening. Just my guess, though. 

Of course most denominations are feeling a bit pinched to a certain extent. The "nones" are the fasted growing group. I'm sure there are a lot of complex factors that feed into it. 

Edited April 4, 2016 by Gray

[Jeanne]

54 minutes ago, Tacenda said:

Oops, wrong thread!

That was a "Jeanne" thing to do...

[Jeanne]

The thing is..no matter what kind of growth or how many missionaries, people are leaving and leaving faster than you think. (IMO)

[Johnnie Cake]

Can I just say that I respect the General Authorities for releasing growth number that show a slowing growth rate for the church.  Irrespective of how you personally view the truth claims of the church...that in and of itself is progress and I applaud them.

[JLHPROF]

Just now, Jeanne said:

The thing is..no matter what kind of growth or how many missionaries, people are leaving and leaving faster than you think. (IMO)

D&C 112:23 Verily, verily, I say unto you, darkness covereth the earth, and gross darkness the minds of the people, and all flesh has become corrupt before my face.
24 Behold, vengeance cometh speedily upon the inhabitants of the earth, a day of wrath, a day of burning, a day of desolation, of weeping, of mourning, and of lamentation; and as a whirlwind it shall come upon all the face of the earth, saith the Lord.
25 And upon my house shall it begin, and from my house shall it go forth, saith the Lord;

Heber C. Kimball - Am I afraid that we shall be overcome? No, I am not. I never have, to my knowledge, had a feeling in my heart, from the day that I came into this Church unto the present time, that this kingdom would be overcome; neither have I now. But there are people here; and a people will grow out of this people that will stand forever.

[rockpond]

25 minutes ago, Johnnie Cake said:

Can I just say that I respect the General Authorities for releasing growth number that show a slowing growth rate for the church.  Irrespective of how you personally view the truth claims of the church...that in and of itself is progress and I applaud them.

I agree with you.  I applaud them for continuing to publicize the data.

[Jeanne]

13 minutes ago, rockpond said:

I agree with you.  I applaud them for continuing to publicize the data.

A great step.  Hoping that this is just the beginning of some open and honest dialogue.