Slowest Church Growth Rate Since the Great Depression

[california boy]

5 minutes ago, rockpond said:

It seems that we're increasingly defining ourselves more as the holder of the keys, rather than a Church that needs to gain more living souls here on earth.  So, no, I don't think that joining the church is still considered "the plan".  As you pointed out, our new policy is that one shouldn't make the covenants if they don't have a good shot at keeping them... just wait til you die, we'll take care of it, and nothing will be withheld.

And one wonders what the purpose is to even hold the keys since centuries passed without anyone even holding any keys 

[california boy]

27 minutes ago, JLHPROF said:

The corporate church as incorporated April 6 1830 in New York wasn't on the earth.  But Joseph was baptized and confirmed in 1829.  He was baptized into Christ's Church.

Christ's church into which we are baptized and confirmed (regardless of name) has been much more available.
And since the "plan" also includes work for the dead everyone will have the opportunity to accept or reject Christ's Church by accepting or rejecting an authorized baptism.

It seems like the plan is more come to earth. Have a good time. Treat each other nice and we will sort this all out when you get back

what is the eternal upside of joining the church on earth?  It seems like by joining your chances of devastating failure are significant by making promises you may not be able to keep. 

[Thinking]

On 4/2/2016 at 5:13 PM, Johnnie Cake said:

With the announced 261,862 growth in church membership taking total church membership to  15,634,199 for an annual growth rate of 1.7% the church continued it's downward growth trend reaching a growth rate not seen since the Great Depression or 78 years...

what is most striking is this downward trend is despite the increase in missionary numbers to historic levels...but the convert to missionary ratio hit a new low

 

thoughts?

The Law of Diminishing Returns

or

The Population Growth S Curve (Logistic Function)

People often assume that what appears to be exponential growth will continue indefinitely, but eventually saturation will slow it down.

[Robert F. Smith]

1 hour ago, california boy said:

The real question is why do missionary work at all. It seems like a huge effort to go against prophesy.

"a huge effort to go against" which prophecy?

And it is not like it is saving billions of people. A fraction of one percent ever become members. It is pretty clear that the plan of salvation is to teach and baptism after people die.

Correct.  We have been over this many times before.  We do not judge the Jews as wrong simply because they are few in number, nor has it ever been true that the Saints of the Last Days must number in the billions.  However, the Gospel must be preached worldwide, and there must be a cadre of priests (at least 144,000) at the End Time to serve the Lord at His Coming, and the Millennium will be dedicated to completing the work already begun with a vast temple-building and genealogy program worldwide.  Lest the Earth be utterly wasted at His Coming.

Especially since it is worse to make covenants and then not be able to keep them. The whole thing makes no sense 

This life is a test, and no one is expected to be perfect.  It only makes sense to the faithful, who recognize that God is merciful, and strongly desires to bring us all back to Him in glory.  Even the recalcitrant will find themselves happily in a kingdom of glory.

 

[Robert F. Smith]

17 minutes ago, california boy said:

It seems like the plan is more come to earth. Have a good time. Treat each other nice and we will sort this all out when you get back

what is the eternal upside of joining the church on earth?  It seems like by joining your chances of devastating failure are significant by making promises you may not be able to keep. 

Everyone will be judged fairly and evenhandedly.  Why would God not be merciful, despite our failures?  We join hands with God because we are filled with love for our brethren and want desperately to be of aid to one another.  It is all about love.

Otherwise, why would a woman ever become a mother or a man become a husband -- when by doing so their level of failure will merely be more devastating if the marriage fails?!  Are humans so fearful and cowardly?  The price of failure is high, and it is so much more fun to engage in self-seeking pleasure -- yet so empty and meaningless.  Do we seek a beau geste, or merely to go out with a whimper?  It is always our choice, and hope springs eternal.

[Jeanne]

On 4/6/2016 at 7:59 AM, Duncan said:

I've said this before but folks like Brigham Young, David O. Mckay and there was this lady in my stake that prayed from like 1968 to the late '80's to know the BOM was true before she got her answer so it seems like God doesn't answer questions to the truthfulness in like two weeks like the missionaries are asking folks to do or are being asked to ask them. Why do we expect God to answer truth claims in such a short amount of time, as illustrated by the fact he didn't answer these other people's prayers when they wanted to know?

Duncan, answers are expected because all the other answers to questions..is to pray.  Then again, some may just not listen.

[Jeanne]

On 4/6/2016 at 9:06 AM, Tacenda said:

I wonder why the church isn't willing to work with people like Bruce?  I'm sure that there are some people that the missionaries work with that have come from a stance of believing JS a fraud.  Not to change the subject, maybe I'll bring it up in the other thread.  The comment struck me so much that I had to bring it up.

Real good question.  It is unfortunate for some that some leaderships just think..."good riddance" in that category.  Why Bruce did not get any help before all this doesn't seem right somehow.

[california boy]

3 hours ago, Robert F. Smith said:

 

5 hours ago, california boy said:

The real question is why do missionary work at all. It seems like a huge effort to go against prophesy.

"a huge effort to go against" which prophecy?

The prophecy that says few will find the path back to God

And it is not like it is saving billions of people. A fraction of one percent ever become members. It is pretty clear that the plan of salvation is to teach and baptism after people die.

Correct.  We have been over this many times before.  We do not judge the Jews as wrong simply because they are few in number, nor has it ever been true that the Saints of the Last Days must number in the billions.  However, the Gospel must be preached worldwide, and there must be a cadre of priests (at least 144,000) at the End Time to serve the Lord at His Coming, and the Millennium will be dedicated to completing the work already begun with a vast temple-building and genealogy program worldwide.  Lest the Earth be utterly wasted at His Coming.

I am not talking about whether the church is true or not.  I am only talking about the concept of a plan of salvation where less than one percent of the population ever joins the church.  I am asking about the whole point of missionary work.  It is not like the church is trying to convert the world, just a very very very small percentage of people. So what is the point"  I am pretty sure the 144,000 cadre of priests isn't a problem at this point.

Especially since it is worse to make covenants and then not be able to keep them. The whole thing makes no sense 

This life is a test, and no one is expected to be perfect.  It only makes sense to the faithful, who recognize that God is merciful, and strongly desires to bring us all back to Him in glory.  Even the recalcitrant will find themselves happily in a kingdom of glory.

This life is a test????  Really?  When only less than one percent even know there is a test being given???  That hardly seems fair.  What percentage of mankind will be accountable for a test that they don't even know about. Looks to me like this is all about what happens in the next life, not the choices one makes here on earth for everyone except this small tiny group over there in the corner.

 

[Robert F. Smith]

7 hours ago, california boy said:

The prophecy that says few will find the path back to God

I thought perhaps that you would do us the courtesy of citing your source for this prophecy.

I am not talking about whether the church is true or not.  I am only talking about the concept of a plan of salvation where less than one percent of the population ever joins the church.  I am asking about the whole point of missionary work.  It is not like the church is trying to convert the world, just a very very very small percentage of people. So what is the point"  I am pretty sure the 144,000 cadre of priests isn't a problem at this point.

You have been replied to on this point many times, and seem tone deaf to actual Mormon theology.  Sarcasm is not an answer.  You need to learn to make a fact-based analysis.  You are deliberately missing the point that the LDS Church does not need to convert the whole world, or even a large number of inhabitants.  Why would they?  The Plan of Salvation does not require it, so where do you get that false notion?

This life is a test????  Really?  When only less than one percent even know there is a test being given???  That hardly seems fair.  What percentage of mankind will be accountable for a test that they don't even know about. Looks to me like this is all about what happens in the next life, not the choices one makes here on earth for everyone except this small tiny group over there in the corner.

Human life and experience is a test for all humans at all times.  St Paul makes it clear that "they who have not the Law are a law unto themselves" (Romans 2:14).  Every culture has its own rules, and all are judged by how well they fulfill those rules.  No one is left with an excuse, although grace comes to all equally.  Being LDS does not give you a pass, and it is false doctrine to insist that it does.  You really don't understand these elementary theological premises?  No wonder you continue to be so thoroughly wrong and obstinate, california boy.

 

[mikegriffith1]

Actually, the number of convert baptisms has increased since the 2015 statistical report. This year's number of convert baptisms is 261,862, an increase from last year's number of 257,402. For a little perspective, in 2005, there were 243,108 convert baptisms.  

I might add that there are a lot of churches that would love to be adding around a quarter of a million new members per year.

Another interesting stat is that newborn children of record numbered 93,150 in 2005. The number of new children of record has been over 110,000 for the last seven years in a row.

Anyway, just wait until areas like China are open to proselyting. I'm sure you'll see a sizable spike in convert baptisms.

Edited April 10, 2016 by mikegriffith1

[omni]

On April 7, 2016 at 0:14 PM, california boy said:

It seems like the plan is more come to earth. Have a good time. Treat each other nice and we will sort this all out when you get back

what is the eternal upside of joining the church on earth?  It seems like by joining your chances of devastating failure are significant by making promises you may not be able to keep. 

I have stated this before, but IMO this is one of the fundamental flaws in Mormon theology.  Why does the Church put such an emphasis on missionary work, when the majority eventually fall away?  

Wouldn't it be more prudent to allow these souls to accept the gospel in the next life and eliminate the risk of falling away?   From an eternal perspective, the risk far outweighs any reward - I simply cannot imagine a perfect being creating such a system.

[rockpond]

2 hours ago, mikegriffith1 said:

Actually, the number of convert baptisms has increased since the 2015 statistical report. This year's number of convert baptisms is 261,862, an increase from last year's number of 257,402. For a little perspective, in 2005, there were 243,108 convert baptisms.  

I might add that there are a lot of churches that would love to be adding around a quarter of a million new members per year.

Another interesting stat is that newborn children of record numbered 93,150 in 2005. The number of new children of record has been over 110,000 for the last seven years in a row.

Anyway, just wait until areas like China are open to proselyting. I'm sure you'll see a sizable spike in convert baptisms.

2015 convert baptisms, as reported in last week's general conference was 257,402 which represents a decrease of over 39,000 from 2014.  (261,862 is the increase in total church membership for 2015.)

If you look at converts as a percentage of total membership, we were at 1.65% in 2015.  The 2005 number you reported (243,108 convert baptisms) represented 1.94% of membership.  So we have decreased since then.  We've actually been on a decreasing trend for a couple decades now.

Similarly, 93,150 new COR as a percentage of total membership is 0.74%.  2015's new COR increase is 0.73% (a decrease from 2005 but not significant).

 

[JLHPROF]

3 hours ago, omni said:

I have stated this before, but IMO this is one of the fundamental flaws in Mormon theology.  Why does the Church put such an emphasis on missionary work, when the majority eventually fall away?  

Wouldn't it be more prudent to allow these souls to accept the gospel in the next life and eliminate the risk of falling away?   From an eternal perspective, the risk far outweighs any reward - I simply cannot imagine a perfect being creating such a system.

1. What makes you think accepting the gospel outside of mortality eliminates the risk of falling away?  Both progression and regression are eternal.
2. The gospel must be taught to all that they may use their agency to accept or reject Christ prior to the final judgement.  Then they will be accountable for the choices made.
3. God didn't create such a system.  The system is the same as it has always been on ever world throughout all the eternities.
 

[Teancum]

On ‎4‎/‎5‎/‎2016 at 0:33 PM, rockpond said:

I completely agree with his statement.

And I think we can both agree that the Church has not yet finished the job of being as transparent as possible.

You actually think Scott Lloyd will agree with you on this point?

Really? 

I doubt it.

Just a few posts above he said people are always willing to look for an "excuse" to become inactive.

I suggest that Scott has little to no empathy for honest people who look at the evidence and come to a conclusion that the Church is not what it claims to be.

After all according to Scott they are just looking for an excuse.

 

 

[cdowis]

6 hours ago, omni said:

Wouldn't it be more prudent to allow these souls to accept the gospel in the next life and eliminate the risk of falling away?   From an eternal perspective, the risk far outweighs any reward - I simply cannot imagine a perfect being creating such a system.

This appears to be the basis of the Islamic/jihadist missionary program.  Send them all to Allah .  No need for brochures, knocking on doors, etc.

Seems to be working for them.

Edited April 10, 2016 by cdowis

[Teancum]

On ‎4‎/‎5‎/‎2016 at 0:41 PM, Scott Lloyd said:

Bottom line is that DNA arguments don't disprove anything about the Book of Mormon, though they might do violence to ill-considered and ill-informed assumptions about the Book of Mormon.

 

Scott you keep saying this but provide nothing other than a reference to the LDS Church essays on this.  There are many experts of DNA issues that disagree with your conclusion.

[Scott Lloyd]

1 hour ago, Teancum said:

You actually think Scott Lloyd will agree with you on this point?

Really? 

I doubt it.

Just a few posts above he said people are always willing to look for an "excuse" to become inactive.

I suggest that Scott has little to no empathy for honest people who look at the evidence and come to a conclusion that the Church is not what it claims to be.

After all according to Scott they are just looking for an excuse.

 

 

CFR. 

[Teancum]

On ‎4‎/‎5‎/‎2016 at 2:48 PM, Scott Lloyd said:

The arguments either prove Mormonism false or they don't. There is nothing subjective about that.

Yes.....

[Teancum]

On April 5, 2016 at 2:50 PM, Scott Lloyd said:

The Kingdom of God will eventually consume other kingdoms and fill the whole earth -- sometime after the Second Coming of Christ. Meanwhile, it will be just as Nephi foresaw in vision: the church of the Lamb of God would be over the face of  all the earth but its numbers would be few.

A great post that shows how Mormons want it both ways.

Great church growth?   It is proof that the stone without hands is filling the earth.

Slow Church growth?   Nephi said the Church would cover all the earth but its numbers would be few.

See.... either can be used to prove a point. 

How nice,

Edited April 10, 2016 by Teancum

[Teancum]

On ‎4‎/‎6‎/‎2016 at 9:19 AM, stemelbow said:

So we reached .2 percent of the world, and let's be honest that's a great exaggeration since many of that number don't consider themselves to be LDS, and we've saturated?  I think it far more likely that our messaging and our ineffective methods are the problem.  We aren't reaching people because we aren't adapting at this point. 

See the church is in all the earth but it is small as Nephi said it would be.   But not only is it small.  It is incredibly small.  And if you take activity rates into account it is even smaller. 

[Teancum]

5 hours ago, Scott Lloyd said:

CFR. 

My CFR is your own posts on this thread where you claim people are looking for an excuse to not believe:

 

Elder Oaks said that by way of making the point that the Church could be as transparent as possible and there would still be questions that are unanswerable with the information currently available and that can only be resolved through faith.

Hence, individuals will always be able to find an excuse for falling away or for rejecting the restored gospel, non-definitive though their reasons might be.

Edited April 11, 2016 by Teancum

[omni]

6 hours ago, JLHPROF said:

1. What makes you think accepting the gospel outside of mortality eliminates the risk of falling away?  Both progression and regression are eternal.
2. The gospel must be taught to all that they may use their agency to accept or reject Christ prior to the final judgement.  Then they will be accountable for the choices made.
3. God didn't create such a system.  The system is the same as it has always been on ever world throughout all the eternities.
 

I'm trying to imagine a situation in which one would fall away after having accepted the gospel in the next life.  

Are there JW missionaries competing for converts just as there are now?  I doubt too many lose their faith completely and become atheists.

Will there still be those who fall away because of sin or laziness?  My understanding of heaven has always been there won't be much opportunity for sinning.  

 

[omni]

3 hours ago, cdowis said:

This appears to be the basis of the Islamic/jihadist missionary program.  Send them all to Allah .  No need for brochures, knocking on doors, etc.

Seems to be working for them.

Well, I think they've got a big surprise coming for them on the other side.  

[JLHPROF]

1 hour ago, omni said:

I'm trying to imagine a situation in which one would fall away after having accepted the gospel in the next life.  

Are there JW missionaries competing for converts just as there are now?  I doubt too many lose their faith completely and become atheists.

Will there still be those who fall away because of sin or laziness?  My understanding of heaven has always been there won't be much opportunity for sinning.  

Ummm...just look at the example of Lucifer.

[Robert F. Smith]

14 hours ago, omni said:

I have stated this before, but IMO this is one of the fundamental flaws in Mormon theology.  Why does the Church put such an emphasis on missionary work, when the majority eventually fall away?  

Wouldn't it be more prudent to allow these souls to accept the gospel in the next life and eliminate the risk of falling away?   From an eternal perspective, the risk far outweighs any reward - I simply cannot imagine a perfect being creating such a system.

God is a finite being working with very fallible humans.  Who told you that the system had to be perfect?  Moreover, there is no greater risk of "falling away" as you put it.  This has always been a problem.  Moses encountered it when he came down from the Mount, and Israel was regularly disobedient throughout its history, while many of Joseph's closest companions apostatized, many of them only to return shamefaced later.  This is the way real life proceeds and the way in which religion has always been conducted.  There is nothing new under the sun, omni.  Why are you making up a false doctrine scenario instead?