First Covid 19 Death in Utah

[Calm]

5 hours ago, Tacenda said:

I totally understand you and Calm's feelings on the subject,

I don’t think you do.  I am not agreeing with them in their projections.  I am agreeing with them that we need more info and less panic.

Edited March 29, 2020 by Calm

[Scott Lloyd]

5 hours ago, Tacenda said:

Maybe it's just a quick term people use? Let's see, is negligent a better term? You know me or maybe you don't, or maybe you've noticed I am very quick on the posting. I've added even more quotes that are alarming to me. I think Governor Herbert sided with President Trump's sentiments. But now, I believe both have had their eyes opened, and I feel they won't be as sure that this thing isn't something to be taken lightly by saying things will not look good for the economy etc. 

Also, I'm sorry for the link to your former employer and being negative about it. I totally understand you and Calm's feelings on the subject, I was there probably 3 or 5 days ago. But I've quickly changed my thinking and that's why I said what I did.  

ETA: I'm sorry to be a pest Scott, just wanted to add this comment on the article below, apparently some predictions have changed, not sure to what extent, this person said this:

Oh, and apparently the Deseret News missed Dr. Neil Ferguson's tweets this morning about how his revised predictions have been misinterpreted.

"I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19."

"This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged."

"My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place."

"Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand)."

The Deseret News should issue an immediate retraction of this article, followed by a swift apology for publishing this dangerous misinformation in the first place.

I don't work for the Deseret News anymore, and under other circumstances, I might be inclined to say that if you have a beef with them, it is of no concern to me.

But in this case, I find your remarks extreme and overwrought. Labeling an endeavor by a a newspaper to explore an alternate viewpoint -- however unpopular that viewpoint might be -- as "almost criminal" or "negligent" is entirely wrongheaded, and being in a crisis or panic doesn't make it any the more excusable.

During World War II, loyal Japanese-Americans were rounded up, deprived of their human rights and confined in internment camps, all due to a state of wartime hysteria that gripped the nation. How I wish there had been more news publications at the time with the courage to challenge such action by the government and to motivate the public to consider it more thoughtfully.

 

Edited March 29, 2020 by Scott Lloyd

[california boy]

12 hours ago, Scott Lloyd said:

I glanced briefly at the article in question, and I saw no real indication of persons quoted therein as not taking “this pandemic seriously.”  I did see differences of opinion on how best to manage it without irreparably crashing the economy.

The chief executive is the one in charge of virus containment for our country at the moment. Some have differed with him sharply on some matters. Shall we shout them down for behaving “irresponsibly”?

I’ve heard it said that truth is the first casualty of war. Perhaps a corollary is that human rights — including freedom of speech and of the press — are among the first casualties of widespread panic.

 

12 hours ago, Tacenda said:

I think the following quotes are almost criminal. But that's me. The last quote by the president, is a nice thought, but won't happen unless we all stay more isolated. I don't believe we're scaring people, we need to share fun meme's, show the videos of the neighbors doing fun things, like exercising, or saying the pledge, or having parades for birthdays, or ???

 

"Yet she believes that the governor of Arizona was wrong when he recently ordered the closure of schools, businesses and other public spaces because of the threat of COVID-19."

“I would try to minimize spread, maximize distance, but keep facilities open because I think this is going to be a long haul,” Sunenshine said, speaking to Phoenix City Council, the Arizona Republic reported.

"Other experts have come forward this week, sharing concerns that some predictions of COVID-19’s impact amount to catastrophizing, a term used in psychology to describe thinking in worst-case scenarios. Writing in The Wall Street Journal March 24, Stanford professors Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya said there is “little evidence” that the novel coronavirus will kill millions of Americans without extreme distancing orders and quarantines, and that calculations that warn of 2 million to 4 million Americans dying are deeply flawed."

“This does not make Covid-19 a nonissue. The daily reports from Italy and across the U.S. show real struggles and overwhelmed health systems. But a 20,000- or 40,000-death epidemic is a far less severe problem than one that kills two million. Given the enormous consequences of decisions around Covid-19 response, getting clear data to guide decisions now is critical. We don’t know the true infection rate in the U.S.,” Bendavid and Bhattacharya wrote.

"President Donald Trump has said that he hopes the nation can begin to return to normalcy by Easter, April 12. This goal has been widely castigated on social media even though there are smart people who are saying much the same thing, while acknowledging that for the next year or more — until a vaccine is available — the nation will have to continue to protect its most vulnerable citizens and require isolation of people who contract the virus."

"The president, of course, is even more hopeful. “I would love to have the country opened up and just raring to go by Easter,” he has said."

Thanks Tacenda.  These are the kinds of quotes that I think could leave the reader thinking that the virus may not be all that big of deal and that the majority of health care professionals are overreacting.. From what we do know about this virus, I personally find an article downplaying what this pandemic might do irresponsible.  Scott, can you really defend that this is responsible reporting?  Or do you think that the Deseret News does not have a responsibility to clearly express the seriousness of this pandemic, an opinion held by the vast majority of health care experts in this country?  The fact that Tacenda's daughter still wants to go out on the town with friends and asks grandma to babysit to me says that some in Utah are still not taking this thing serious enough.  Articles like this are not helping.  They are in fact adding to that perception. 

What happens in Utah will be played out in the next 30 days. Utah currently has 602 confirmed cases and 4 deaths.  I will talk to you again at that time and we can see whether or not it was irresponsible of the paper to write an article downplaying the impact of this pandemic that may have lead some people to not be as cautious as they should have been especially at this very critical early stages of the virus in Utah.  

 

Edited March 29, 2020 by california boy

[Kenngo1969]

On 3/27/2020 at 8:58 PM, mfbukowski said:

I see this all as a nasty precedent for a lot of ...... stuff... coming down the road after everything clears up, after the vaccine etc.

Did you see all the ...stuff... they tacked onto that funding bill?

Disgraceful!

Now we get to try to roll it back- I think much of it will be virtually impossible to erase now that it's on the books.

The slide picks up speed...

"Never let a crisis go to waste" is a budgetary axiom as much as it is anything else, especially when the government is involved.

Edited March 29, 2020 by Kenngo1969

[Calm]

2 hours ago, california boy said:

The fact that Tacenda's daughter still wants to go out on the town with friends and asks grandma to babysit to me says that some in Utah are still not taking this thing serious enough.

From what I hear, it's everywhere, not just a Utah thing...at least in the States.

I don't believe the US has had a strong, accurately informed in order to instill confidence, open and consistent in order to instill trust leader at this time.  This less that stable leadership may encourage everyone to approach the cautions from the standpoint of accept some as reasonable, but not the other.  

[Scott Lloyd]

3 hours ago, california boy said:

 

Thanks Tacenda.  These are the kinds of quotes that I think could leave the reader thinking that the virus may not be all that big of deal and that the majority of health care professionals are overreacting.. From what we do know about this virus, I personally find an article downplaying what this pandemic might do irresponsible.  Scott, can you really defend that this is responsible reporting?  Or do you think that the Deseret News does not have a responsibility to clearly express the seriousness of this pandemic, an opinion held by the vast majority of health care experts in this country?  The fact that Tacenda's daughter still wants to go out on the town with friends and asks grandma to babysit to me says that some in Utah are still not taking this thing serious enough.  Articles like this are not helping.  They are in fact adding to that perception. 

What happens in Utah will be played out in the next 30 days. Utah currently has 602 confirmed cases and 4 deaths.  I will talk to you again at that time and we can see whether or not it was irresponsible of the paper to write an article downplaying the impact of this pandemic that may have lead some people to not be as cautious as they should have been especially at this very critical early stages of the virus in Utah.  

 

So to be clear, what are you going to be talking to me about in 30 days? What exactly is your prediction? Are you saying there will have been at least 2 million deaths in the nation from the virus a month from now? The guy quoted in the story says there will be fatalities but doesn’t seem to think it will be that high. We’ll see, I guess. 

Edited March 29, 2020 by Scott Lloyd

[provoman]

12 hours ago, Calm said:

I don’t think you do.  I am not agreeing with them in their projections.  I am agreeing with them that we need more info and less panic.

Have you read the sltrib article - it is free - about how the State of Utah is reporting to the public known/suspected cases?

It is the non-tested presumptive that the State is not including in the case count.

https://www.sltrib.com/news/2020/03/28/robert-gehrke-utahs/

Edited March 29, 2020 by provoman

[Scott Lloyd]

34 minutes ago, Calm said:

From what I hear, it's everywhere, not just a Utah thing...at least in the States.

I don't believe the US has had a strong, accurately informed in order to instill confidence, open and consistent in order to instill trust leader at this time.  This less that stable leadership may encourage everyone to approach the cautions from the standpoint of accept some as reasonable, but not the other.  

I, on the other hand, believe the daily, lengthy press briefings by the nation’s task force have done well at keeping the nation informed and promoting responsible behavior while, at the same time, endeavoring to quell panic which potentially could be as harmful as the virus itself. 

Edited March 29, 2020 by Scott Lloyd

[california boy]

46 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said:

So to be clear, what are you going to be talking to me about in 30 days? What exactly is your prediction? Are you saying there will have been at least 2 million deaths in the nation from the virus a month from now? The guy quoted in the story says there will be fatalities but doesn’t seem to think it will be that high. We’ll see, I guess. 

Come no Scott, no one with any credibility is saying there will be 2 million deaths in the nation from the virus a month from now.  So don't make this about wacky predictions.

What I am saying is THIS:  

Utah is at the very beginnings of this virus. It is where Italy was before things got out of control.  It is where NYC was before things got out of control.  It is where Spain was before things got out of control. Each one of these hot spots did not take this virus seriously enough before it got out of control. There is nothing special about Utah that it can not take this virus seriously and somehow magically not have this thing go out of control as well.  

Articles like the one we have been talking about and you have been defending sends a message that maybe this virus is not all that serious. IT IS.   If the people in Utah do not get the message that it is not ok to go out on the town and ask grandma to babysit because of these kinds of articles, along with some political leaders that are downplaying the seriousness of this health crisis, then there is little reason that we will not see a significant sharp spike in both the number of cases and deaths in Utah 30 days from now.  A responsible newspaper would be pushing people to social distance themselves RIGHT NOW and not wait until this pandemic gets out of control.  And that is the message we all should be encouraging from both political, religious, social, news, and any other source the public looks to for guidance on this issue.

30 days from now, the facts will be indisputable.  Will Utah become another hot spot because many listened to sources like the Deseret News and think this whole virus thing is overblown and not nearly as serious as leading health experts are saying.  Or will Utah keep those numbers down and not let this thing get out of control by acting fast enough to strongly encourage social distancing, shut down non-essential businesses and self isolate?  

[california boy]

1 hour ago, Calm said:

From what I hear, it's everywhere, not just a Utah thing...at least in the States.

I don't believe the US has had a strong, accurately informed in order to instill confidence, open and consistent in order to instill trust leader at this time.  This less that stable leadership may encourage everyone to approach the cautions from the standpoint of accept some as reasonable, but not the other.  

Of course this is not just a Utah thing.  But we have been talking about an irresponsible article in a local Utah paper.

And yes, there are politicians and others in responsible positions that are adding to this idea that the virus is not that big of deal.  Downplaying or dismissing the seriousness of this virus is not going to magically make it disappear.  We should be encouraging responsible reporting of the facts and dangers that the world now faces from all sources that the public looks to for guidance.

[provoman]

20 minutes ago, california boy said:

 Or will Utah keep those numbers down and not let this thing get out of control by acting fast enough to strongly encourage social distancing, shut down non-essential businesses and self isolate?  

I do not have a lot of confidence that people in Utah will slow the spread in the State.

The Governor, in my opinion has not done a good job to forcefully impress on people to stay away from others....I dont mean force of I mean more like J Golden Kimball motivating mulls to haul logs - Just think how quick J Golden approach could have cleared the airport parking lot.

The Mayor of SLC also seems to have struggled with her message...Stay at home under threat of law, but did not order non-essential business closure. And many SLC employees are not allowed to telework.

I was surprised at the deseretnews article, I think your concerns are legitimate. I do appreciate that the article was published though.

Edited March 29, 2020 by provoman

[Scott Lloyd]

48 minutes ago, california boy said:

Come no Scott, no one with any credibility is saying there will be 2 million deaths in the nation from the virus a month from now.  So don't make this about wacky predictions.

What I am saying is THIS:  

Utah is at the very beginnings of this virus. It is where Italy was before things got out of control.  It is where NYC was before things got out of control.  It is where Spain was before things got out of control. Each one of these hot spots did not take this virus seriously enough before it got out of control. There is nothing special about Utah that it can not take this virus seriously and somehow magically not have this thing go out of control as well.  

Articles like the one we have been talking about and you have been defending sends a message that maybe this virus is not all that serious. IT IS.   If the people in Utah do not get the message that it is not ok to go out on the town and ask grandma to babysit because of these kinds of articles, along with some political leaders that are downplaying the seriousness of this health crisis, then there is little reason that we will not see a significant sharp spike in both the number of cases and deaths in Utah 30 days from now.  A responsible newspaper would be pushing people to social distance themselves RIGHT NOW and not wait until this pandemic gets out of control.  And that is the message we all should be encouraging from both political, religious, social, news, and any other source the public looks to for guidance on this issue.

30 days from now, the facts will be indisputable.  Will Utah become another hot spot because many listened to sources like the Deseret News and think this whole virus thing is overblown and not nearly as serious as leading health experts are saying.  Or will Utah keep those numbers down and not let this thing get out of control by acting fast enough to strongly encourage social distancing, shut down non-essential businesses and self isolate?  

Whoa, slow down. The quotes Tacenda provided are not about Utah. They’re about the nation as a whole. Why are you making this about Utah?  
 

And the authors quoted in the article are calling into question predictions about 2 million to 4 million deaths in the U.S.  Now you are acknowledging those are “wacky” predictions. Why do you get to call them “wacky,” but when someone else questions them and calls for more evidence and added perspective, and a newspaper quotes them it is called “almost criminal” and “negligent” (Tacenda’s words, but with your support)? 

[Meadowchik]

1 hour ago, california boy said:

Come no Scott, no one with any credibility is saying there will be 2 million deaths in the nation from the virus a month from now.  So don't make this about wacky predictions.

What I am saying is THIS:  

Utah is at the very beginnings of this virus. It is where Italy was before things got out of control.  It is where NYC was before things got out of control.  It is where Spain was before things got out of control. Each one of these hot spots did not take this virus seriously enough before it got out of control. There is nothing special about Utah that it can not take this virus seriously and somehow magically not have this thing go out of control as well.  

Articles like the one we have been talking about and you have been defending sends a message that maybe this virus is not all that serious. IT IS.   If the people in Utah do not get the message that it is not ok to go out on the town and ask grandma to babysit because of these kinds of articles, along with some political leaders that are downplaying the seriousness of this health crisis, then there is little reason that we will not see a significant sharp spike in both the number of cases and deaths in Utah 30 days from now.  A responsible newspaper would be pushing people to social distance themselves RIGHT NOW and not wait until this pandemic gets out of control.  And that is the message we all should be encouraging from both political, religious, social, news, and any other source the public looks to for guidance on this issue.

30 days from now, the facts will be indisputable.  Will Utah become another hot spot because many listened to sources like the Deseret News and think this whole virus thing is overblown and not nearly as serious as leading health experts are saying.  Or will Utah keep those numbers down and not let this thing get out of control by acting fast enough to strongly encourage social distancing, shut down non-essential businesses and self isolate?  

The total number of hospital beds in the US is almost 930k, and more than half of them are filled at any given time. The number of ventilators is much less than that. If even a fraction of that number get critically ill with the virus at the same time, there will not be enough medical resources to treat them. 

This is the essential point to me, and what convinces me that lockdowns and social distancing are justified.

There were other options if the US government had acted earlier, including tracking, testing, and precision quarantining only specifically identified carriers. That's what we will have to do to try to prevent the need for lockdowns in the future. Improving medical resources might also be a good idea.

Edited March 29, 2020 by Meadowchik

[Tacenda]

My husband and I went on a little ride to get out of the house. We live in Davis County, and there are a lot of missionaries returning home. We saw a couple of homes, one with several vehicles maybe a family party? and another house with people visiting a missionary it had an Italy flag and they were out on the driveway with probably 20 or so people, speaking with the missionary. 

It's easy to feel like this isn't that bad, and very tempting to act like we social creatures have always done. The following is what a FB friend shared today, she works in the medical field and supports Pres. Trump, so I was a little surprised, but I believe Pres. Trump is finally on board as well. It's a long post but it's an eye opener and a reality check. It mentions something very concerning to me because my 22 year old son who lives with us is at a friend's house in Orem right now. So what to do, what to do. 

**copied and pasted, very good info here**

PLEASE READ THE ENTIRE POST
Hey everybody, as an infectious disease epidemiologist (although a lowly one), at this point feel morally obligated to provide some information on what we are seeing from a transmission dynamic perspective and how they apply to the social distancing measures. Like any good scientist I have noticed two things that are either not articulated or not present in the “literature” of social media. I am also tagging my much smarter infectious disease epidemiologist friends for peer review of this post. Please correct me if I am wrong (any edits are from peer review).

Specifically, I want to make two aspects of these measures very clear and unambiguous.

First, we are in the very infancy of this epidemic’s trajectory. That means even with these measures we will see cases and deaths continue to rise globally, nationally, and in our own communities in the coming weeks. This may lead some people to think that the social distancing measures are not working. They are. They may feel futile. They aren’t. You will feel discouraged. You should. This is normal in chaos. But this is also normal epidemic trajectory. Stay calm. This enemy that we are facing is very good at what it does; we are not failing. We need everyone to hold the line as the epidemic inevitably gets worse. This is not my opinion; this is the unforgiving math of epidemics for which I and my colleagues have dedicated our lives to understanding with great nuance, and this disease is no exception. I want to help the community brace for this impact. Stay strong and with solidarity knowing with absolute certainty that what you are doing is saving lives, even as people begin getting sick and dying. You may feel like giving in. Don’t.

Second, although social distancing measures have been (at least temporarily) well-received, there is an obvious-but-overlooked phenomenon when considering groups (i.e. families) in transmission dynamics. While social distancing decreases contact with members of society, it of course increases your contacts with group (i.e. family) members. This small and obvious fact has surprisingly profound implications on disease transmission dynamics. Study after study demonstrates that even if there is only a little bit of connection between groups (i.e. social dinners, playdates/playgrounds, etc.), the epidemic trajectory isn’t much different than if there was no measure in place. The same underlying fundamentals of disease transmission apply, and the result is that the community is left with all of the social and economic disruption but very little public health benefit. You should perceive your entire family to function as a single individual unit; if one person puts themselves at risk, everyone in the unit is at risk. Seemingly small social chains get large and complex with alarming speed. If your son visits his girlfriend, and you later sneak over for coffee with a neighbor, your neighbor is now connected to the infected office worker that your son’s girlfriend’s mother shook hands with. This sounds silly, it’s not. This is not a joke or a hypothetical. We as epidemiologists see it borne out in the data time and time again and no one listens. Conversely, any break in that chain breaks disease transmission along that chain.

In contrast to hand-washing and other personal measures, social distancing measures are not about individuals, they are about societies working in unison. These measures also take a long time to see the results. It is hard (even for me) to conceptualize how ‘one quick little get together’ can undermine the entire framework of a public health intervention, but it does. I promise you it does. I promise. I promise. I promise. You can’t cheat it. People are already itching to cheat on the social distancing precautions just a “little”- a playdate, a haircut, or picking up a needless item at the store, etc. From a transmission dynamics standpoint, this very quickly recreates a highly connected social network that undermines all of the work the community has done so far.

Until we get a viable vaccine this unprecedented outbreak will not be overcome in one grand, sweeping gesture, rather only by the collection of individual choices our community makes in the coming months. This virus is unforgiving to unwise choices. My goal in writing this is to prevent communities from getting ‘sucker-punched’ by what the epidemiological community knows will happen in the coming weeks. It will be easy to be drawn to the idea that what we are doing isn’t working and become paralyzed by fear, or to ‘cheat’ a little bit in the coming weeks. By knowing what to expect, and knowing the importance of maintaining these measures, my hope is to encourage continued community spirit, strategizing, and action to persevere in this time of uncertainty.

ETA: I wish they would quit saying it isn't necessary to wear masks, the ordinary citizen, when looking at this chart we may all need one of those homemade ones. Especially when we all head to the crowded stores, like the Home Depot that my husband went to yesterday, it was a mad house. They should definitely put a stop to that or somehow organize it like they do at the liquor stores that I've seen photos of people standing several feet apart in line. Of course that's different I guess. And I don't think it was all that necessary that my husband shop Home Depot either. 

Edited March 29, 2020 by Tacenda

[Stargazer]

On 3/28/2020 at 2:50 AM, mfbukowski said:

Really? We don't do that in LA.  You just go to the Chapel to wait for the couple's name to be called and then you go up to the sealing room.

 

When our granddaughter was married in the San Diego temple, we did just that. We watched the sealing while dressed in normal Sunday clothes.

[california boy]

2 hours ago, Scott Lloyd said:

Whoa, slow down. The quotes Tacenda provided are not about Utah. They’re about the nation as a whole. Why are you making this about Utah?  
 

And the authors quoted in the article are calling into question predictions about 2 million to 4 million deaths in the U.S.  Now you are acknowledging those are “wacky” predictions. Why do you get to call them “wacky,” but when someone else questions them and calls for more evidence and added perspective, and a newspaper quotes them it is called “almost criminal” and “negligent” (Tacenda’s words, but with your support)? 

My comments are directed at the Deseret News for writing an irresponsible article downplaying the seriousness of the virus. Using wacky quotes that are extreme does not help in convincing others to take this plague seriously.  

[Stargazer]

2 hours ago, Meadowchik said:

There were other options if the US government had acted earlier, including tracking, testing, and precision quarantining only specifically identified carriers. That's what we will have to do to try to prevent the need for lockdowns in the future. Improving medical resources might also be a good idea.

Here's the problem: you can't act earlier than you have accurate information. China was the first hit, and it was (and still is) acting like a black hole of information. It arrested and detained doctors who were trying to publicize the problem, treating the whole thing like a state secret. It's only been about three months since anything started to be known about this (largely courtesy of China), and tests for the virus had to first be developed, then tested (for efficacy), then manufactured, then distributed.  This takes time. We haven't had the time.  The virus has been in the meantime merrily propagating away, faster than anyone could predict.

This could verge into the political, so I won't name names, but when the US administration shut down movement from China, the media called it a racist move and unjustified. Now they've been trying to delete their tweets saying so, because obviously it was a justified move at the time.  And if more had been known about the virulence of the virus (thanks, again, China) then we might have made more effective and earlier moves. But it wasn't.  And a news item crossed my desk yesterday, that the test kits that China sold Spain recently turned out to be mostly faulty, with huge numbers of false negatives. Assuming China didn't know the test kits were faulty (attributing this to incompetence instead of malice), then it's clear that developing a good test of this virus has not been without its problems.

How much 20/20 hindsight are we going to demand of our various governments, anyway?  I think all of them are operating as well as could be expected with the knowledge that was available at the time it was known. Obviously we would rather they had had more and better information earlier than they have had it.

And the scientists are still researching this virus, because we are still rather ignorant of it.

[provoman]

1 hour ago, Tacenda said:

My husband and I went on a little ride to get out of the house. We live in Davis County, and there are a lot of missionaries returning home. We saw a couple of homes, one with several vehicles maybe a family party? and another house with people visiting a missionary it had an Italy flag and they were out on the driveway with probably 20 or so people, speaking with the missionary. 

Good grief about the missionary situation.

Might have to tell you come home and stay home.

 

as for the facebook post, here is the original https://m.facebook.com/iamjonsmith/posts/10111300366541710

The mask v no mask chart is not part of the original post.

[Tacenda]

24 minutes ago, provoman said:

Good grief about the missionary situation.

Might have to tell you come home and stay home.

 

as for the facebook post, here is the original https://m.facebook.com/iamjonsmith/posts/10111300366541710

The mask v no mask chart is not part of the original post.

I'm glad you brought that up, I added that later and didn't think to mention that the graph had nothing to do with the post on FB, thanks! Two more deaths today. I'm sure you're well aware...

https://www.sltrib.com/news/2020/03/29/bob-garff-auto-exec/

https://www.sltrib.com/news/2020/03/29/family-says-year-old/

[ksfisher]

35 minutes ago, provoman said:

 

as for the facebook post, here is the original https://m.facebook.com/iamjonsmith/posts/10111300366541710

The mask v no mask chart is not part of the original post.

Here’s what the Salt Lake Co Health Dept is saying about masks:

Q: Do I need to buy a face mask?

No. Please save face masks for health care personnel working with people confirmed to have COVID-19.

Surgical-type face masks can help prevent your respiratory droplets from getting out into the environment; they do not prevent you from inhaling airborne germs. So while they can be useful for preventing sick people from making others sick, they are not especially useful for keeping healthy people from getting sick.

Wearing an N95 respirator mask can help prevent illness, but the respirator mask must be individually fit-tested and worn correctly. Currently, N95 respirator masks should be reserved for specific populations who are at the greatest risk, such as health care professionals working with an infectious patient; widespread public use is unnecessary.

https://slco.org/health/COVID-19/faq/

[Tacenda]

1 minute ago, ksfisher said:

Here’s what the Salt Lake Co Health Dept is saying about masks:

Q: Do I need to buy a face mask?

No. Please save face masks for health care personnel working with people confirmed to have COVID-19.

Surgical-type face masks can help prevent your respiratory droplets from getting out into the environment; they do not prevent you from inhaling airborne germs. So while they can be useful for preventing sick people from making others sick, they are not especially useful for keeping healthy people from getting sick.

Wearing an N95 respirator mask can help prevent illness, but the respirator mask must be individually fit-tested and worn correctly. Currently, N95 respirator masks should be reserved for specific populations who are at the greatest risk, such as health care professionals working with an infectious patient; widespread public use is unnecessary.

https://slco.org/health/COVID-19/faq/

That's why I said the ones that are handmade all over, and not being allowed at the hospitals because they aren't N95. Might as well use them, they are easy to make on our own, and will help IMO.

[mfbukowski]

2 hours ago, Stargazer said:

When our granddaughter was married in the San Diego temple, we did just that. We watched the sealing while dressed in normal Sunday clothes.

Yep. All the So Cal temples are like that.

Actually I left off 1 thing, of course you remove your shoes and store them in cubby holes and walk around in your socks on the way to the sealing room

 

 

[Calm]

8 hours ago, provoman said:

Have you read the sltrib article - it is free - about how the State of Utah is reporting to the public known/suspected cases?

It is the non-tested presumptive that the State is not including in the case count.

https://www.sltrib.com/news/2020/03/28/robert-gehrke-utahs/

The limited testing is why at the moment I am not 'agreeing' with any projections because I don't believe we have enough info yet to assume any particular estimate is correct.  Based on what happened in Italy and other places means there is an obvious possibility for an explosion of cases and until we have better numbers, I think it wise to act to avoid that possibility even if conditions are different here (younger population, less smoking, less dense housing, less cultural contact spreading such as greeting by hugging and kissing).  If we prepare for the worst, it less likely to happen.

 I would like to see a stronger message out there that the governments and others are pushing for stricter social distancing in order so we don't have to panic.  That people who are committed to distancing are helping their community, are the reason things will be controlled if we get enough people working together.

I saw a Texas article with a graph of likely projected cases with variations based on how much social distancing was needed to not overtax their health system.  They had number of likely cases with no, 50, 75, and 90% social distancing efforts graphed onto cases their hospital system could handle.  I see approaches like that as highly useful, with explanations these are best estimates based on current information.

[Calm]

 

Quote

ETA: I wish they would quit saying it isn't necessary to wear masks, the ordinary citizen, when looking at this chart we may all need one of those homemade ones. Especially when we all head to the crowded stores, like the Home Depot that my husband went to yesterday, it was a mad house. They should definitely put a stop to that or somehow organize it like they do at the liquor stores that I've seen photos of people standing several feet apart in line. Of course that's different I guess. And I don't think it was all that necessary that my husband shop Home Depot either. 

Tacenda, is this part yours or hers?

This graph is inaccurate in its claims of who wears masks and who doesn't, the population in China tends to wear masks as well.  Masks are popular in all Asian countries that I am aware of, in part because of high air pollution fears.  Also it is generally accepted that Japan is not likely reporting cases because of their desire to keep the Olympics going among other things, so shouldn't trust that number.  Singapore did massive, massive efforts, including testing temperatures of all customers before letting them into stores, students and staff at school, etc.  (Sister-in-law lived there).  Korea was wearing masks lots beforehand and still had an implosion, but when it happened what got it under control was not more masks, but out of the world testing and tracking through credit cards, phones, and CCTV (there is about 1 for every 6 people).  

The above graph is the type of misinformation that is not helpful, imo.

Edited March 30, 2020 by Calm

[Calm]

4 hours ago, Stargazer said:

you can't act earlier than you have accurate information.

We do this all the time.  If we never acted before we had accurate info, disasters would be much more disastrous.  Think not acting until one knew how strong a volcano explosion was?  Or not putting troops into the field until you knew accurately how many the invaders had?

You act AND look for accurate info to modify your actions.