First Covid 19 Death in Utah

[Calm]

4 hours ago, Tacenda said:

Not being political, but saw this just now, and need to share. Sometimes people get things wrong, we're all human.

 

 

Rather important to know what Trump was saying right then. 

[smac97]

13 minutes ago, Calm said:

And other states only counted deaths in the hospital and not if they were brought in dead, iirc. Counting is not consistent across the states just as other health measures tend to vary depending on what stats the state decides are important, private, etc. 

And normally I wouldn't quite care as much, since civil liberties, jobs, etc. are not adversely impacted by such inconsistencies.  However, here we have destroyed tens of millions of jobs, trillions of dollars in wealth, and the economic impact will felt for years to come.  The justification of the extraordinary measures we have been enduring has been almost entirely predicated on the dire nature of the threat.  Politicians and political entities, then, could be feeling pressure, or are being incentivized, to distort the actual impact - through over- or under-counting fatalities - of COVID.

Thanks,

-Smac

[Calm]

Well, I could make comments on what I see as the two biggest failures to get accurate numbers quickly, but that would get too political, so I think I have gone as far as possible in this thread without breaking board rules.

Edited May 5, 2020 by Calm

[The Nehor]

17 hours ago, smac97 said:

And normally I wouldn't quite care as much, since civil liberties, jobs, etc. are not adversely impacted by such inconsistencies.  However, here we have destroyed tens of millions of jobs, trillions of dollars in wealth, and the economic impact will felt for years to come.  The justification of the extraordinary measures we have been enduring has been almost entirely predicated on the dire nature of the threat.  Politicians and political entities, then, could be feeling pressure, or are being incentivized, to distort the actual impact - through over- or under-counting fatalities - of COVID.

Thanks,

-Smac

This is the oddest thing to my friends in Europe. Over there they are dealing with a health crisis. Over here we cannot even decide if that is the case.

Edited May 6, 2020 by The Nehor

[The Nehor]

17 hours ago, Calm said:

Rather important to know what Trump was saying right then. 

Not really.

[Calm]

2 hours ago, The Nehor said:

Not really.

If the meme is being used to show something that didn’t happen, it is a lie. Passing around a lie is not a good thing even if one believes it is true. 
 

added

FYI, It is easily found by those interested, not posting link due to politics ban.  Google Fauci meme and then look at images and it will likely be there.  Apparently like many things, people are seeing it as confirming very different things. 

Edited May 6, 2020 by Calm

[longview]

2 hours ago, The Nehor said:

This is the oddest thing to my friends in Europe. Over there they are dealing with a health crisis. Over here we cannot even decide if that is the case.

Sweden has a different perspective from the US and most of Europe.

[The Nehor]

44 minutes ago, longview said:

Sweden has a different perspective from the US and most of Europe.

The friends I have talked to are in Britain and Germany. 

[The Nehor]

On 5/5/2020 at 10:39 AM, Tacenda said:

Not being political, but saw this just now, and need to share. Sometimes people get things wrong, we're all human.

 

 

I like this version:

 

[Calm]

The ultraviolet light....anyone else flashback to the original Star Trek?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_--_Annihilate!#Plot

Edited May 7, 2020 by Calm

[The Nehor]

6 hours ago, Calm said:

The ultraviolet light....anyone else flashback to the original Star Trek?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_--_Annihilate!#Plot

I did think of it. I honestly do not know if it makes sense. Would blinding light have enough UV to seriously penetrate a humanoid’s skin? Also wouldn’t that make going out in the sunlight with one of them attached deadly to it? 

You still have the cancer problem but I am guessing that is a solved problem in the TOS era.

[Hamba Tuhan]

On 5/6/2020 at 11:47 PM, The Nehor said:

This is the oddest thing to my friends in Europe. Over there they are dealing with a health crisis. Over here we cannot even decide if that is the case.

Yep, and the crazy American politicisation of this global health crisis keeps sneaking into threads and getting them shut down, which is really annoying me. 

[Tacenda]

On 5/5/2020 at 2:13 PM, Calm said:

Rather important to know what Trump was saying right then. 

Lip readers?

[Calm]

5 minutes ago, Tacenda said:

Lip readers?

It is pretty easy to find a clip with the sound. 

[The Nehor]

1 hour ago, Tacenda said:

Lip readers?

Not a lip reader but the President was talking about the "deep state department".

In other news the AHA (American Hospital Association) created a presentation for healthcare leaders to prepare for the expected spike due to the loosening of lockdowns. Some of the slides were leaked. That presentation estimates 96 million cases in the United States, 4.8 million hospitalizations, and 480,000 deaths. You can see the math in the numbers. 5% hospitalization rate, 0.5% death rate. It is another best guess based on another model but that is a high one. I trust this more than most. The advice on the slide is to prepare for a bad flu season times 10. The lockdown bought time. I hope our healthcare system is more ready now if/when this hits. Those numbers are for the US only.

Edited May 8, 2020 by The Nehor

[Calm]

Looks like they may be getting some good insight into Covid:

https://elemental.medium.com/coronavirus-may-be-a-blood-vessel-disease-which-explains-everything-2c4032481ab2

[Calm]

On a different note....Nehor, Pogi, anyone....do you have something that breaks covid down clearly into risks...as in how many infected are asymptomatic, how many don’t need treatment, how many need treatment for what including all the weird blood/toes stuff.  Percentage death by what. Risk of infection if exposed would be nice but I understand that needs lots more tests to determine. I am mediating between someone who isn’t understanding the full level of caution in the other because they see probability low due to low case numbers right now in our area plus high probability of no symptoms or mild ones while the other person sees it as more Russian Roulette. In their view, it may be low probability but high cost outcome. 
 

The articles I have read don’t go that route and I want something more than bits or pieces to stick together. 

Edited May 30, 2020 by Calm

[Calm]

Other useful articles from that site, interesting collection with much more than just below:

https://elemental.medium.com/how-covid-19-really-spreads-f9627bb93645

https://elemental.medium.com/the-dangerous-link-between-coronavirus-and-obesity-e4cb96a8ae53

https://elemental.medium.com/guidelines-say-covid-19-symptoms-last-two-weeks-survivors-know-better-7a6cab53e624

https://elemental.medium.com/the-long-term-health-impacts-of-being-infected-with-the-coronavirus-d3a03f3cb6e8

Edited May 30, 2020 by Calm

[pogi]

35 minutes ago, Calm said:

On a different note....Nehor, Pogi, anyone....do you have something that breaks covid down clearly into risks...as in how many infected are asymptomatic, how many don’t need treatment, how many need treatment for what including all the weird blood/toes stuff.  Percentage death by what. Risk of infection if exposed would be nice but I understand that needs lots more tests to determine. I am mediating between someone who isn’t understanding the full level of caution in the other because they see probability low due to low case numbers right now in our area plus high probability of no symptoms or mild ones while the other person sees it as more Russian Roulette. In their view, it may be low probability but high cost outcome. 
 

The articles I have read don’t go that route and I want something more than bits or pieces to stick together. 

If this person is young and healthy, I’d agree that risk for serious complications from this disease for him/her is fairly low, but definitely not zero. But that is a very self-centered way to approach this.  I don’t have hard numbers right now, but I know that asymptomatic rates are very high, I think they estimate around 30% of all cases are asymptomatic.  One cruise line study found that 80% of positive cases on the cruise line were asymptomatic.  So, that is good news if you are young and healthy and only thinking about yourself.  That is terrible news if you are a vulnerable person trying to avoid an invisible killer, when the hosts of this killer are only thinking about themselves and not taking precautions to protect others.  Maybe approach this person from that perspective - precautions are less about protecting him/her from risk and more about protecting vulnerable populations and overwhelming the healthcare system all at once.

Edited May 30, 2020 by pogi

[The Nehor]

3 hours ago, Calm said:

On a different note....Nehor, Pogi, anyone....do you have something that breaks covid down clearly into risks...as in how many infected are asymptomatic, how many don’t need treatment, how many need treatment for what including all the weird blood/toes stuff.  Percentage death by what. Risk of infection if exposed would be nice but I understand that needs lots more tests to determine. I am mediating between someone who isn’t understanding the full level of caution in the other because they see probability low due to low case numbers right now in our area plus high probability of no symptoms or mild ones while the other person sees it as more Russian Roulette. In their view, it may be low probability but high cost outcome. 
 

The articles I have read don’t go that route and I want something more than bits or pieces to stick together. 

No, there are a lot of estimates but no solid numbers. The problem with asymptomatic rates is almost nowhere has there been enough testing to determine the rate and the few places it has been done were hot areas which can skew the numbers. We also cannot get the death rate as many deaths are not being reported. This is not usually due to malice. If an ambulance goes and picks up a body and they died of cardiac trauma or pneumonia it is unlikely they will test for coronavirus. Epidemiologists will probably get their best guess number when this is over by comparing death rates with those in a normal year while trying to factor in other exceptional things that mitigate or increase the death rate (reduced flu contagion, suicide, and reduced accident rates are a few likely things to factor in).

[Calm]

Nehor, That is what I thought, but I was hoping someone knew of numbers I hadn’t come across. 
 

Pogi, he’s older and wears a mask and keeps up on the science, I think it is more he knows no one who has it so why miss meetings and such right now when ‘no one he knows is infected’. Pointing to asymptomatic rates isn’t enough. I found some numbers for cases in the area that may help. They are much higher than the ones he tells me, so he hasn’t checked for awhile I am guessing. 

Edited May 30, 2020 by Calm

[The Nehor]

Last I checked the CDC estimates about a 35% rate of asymptomatic cases.

Last I checked about 90% of those hospitalized have comorbid conditions. Everything from obesity to respiratory and cardiovascular issues.

It is very hard to get a good grasp of the hospitalization ratio to cases. Sorry.

[Calm]

Every little bit helps, if only because I become more comfortable about trying to be persuasive.