First Covid 19 Death in Utah

[Calm]

Apparently they are tracking by changes in distance traveled.  This could definitely be affected in small populations that have to travel significant distances outside daily activity (say to go to a specialist appt).  Wonder how they are weighting the smaller populated counties with the large ones, do they do it all as a state or average out counties' scores.

added:  here is a blog on methodology I haven't read yet....brain is shutting down, think I may sleep, read it later....

https://www.unacast.com/post/the-unacast-social-distancing-scoreboard

What might be best is changes in number of other phones in same area as distance doesn’t take into account whether they are contacting people (my husband is upping motorcycle rides to avoid cabin fever, he contacts no one except one gas station bathroom...carries gloves with him now).  Need to find out how distance is measured as well, farmers now planting fields going back and forth might rack up a lot of distance without going anywhere.  Are they measuring distance from believed home base or distance traveled whether 500 feet from home 10 times or 5000 ft?  Someone doing all their errands in one day would cause a blip and then drop but might contact many more people than someone who measures worse doing one errand a day, at low traffic times and then going home and sanitizing immediately. 
 

Still think it is better than no measure, can encourage those doing poorly to examine what they are doing and encourages those measuring well that it is having an effect. 

Edited March 30, 2020 by Calm

[Meadowchik]

2 hours ago, Kenngo1969 said:

An interesting discussion about, and argument against, the idea that, "If bats carry so many zoonotic diseases, won't we solve the problem by getting rid of the bats?"  (Though that would be much easier said than done, for reasons also discussed in the video.)  The discussion of the respiratory distress group of diseases that bats carry, of why and how they are resistant to them, and of how that resistance might hold keys for how those diseases might be treated successfully in humans, begins at about the 5:00 mark.

https://www.komando.com/video/komando-picks/why-do-bats-carry-so-many-dangerous-diseases/732452/

I'm not sure why the link didn't imbed as a video, but if you click on the link to the redoubtable Ms. Komando's site, it should take you to it.

A much simpler and safer solution would be imo to just ban the sale and purchase of wild animals in markets, which China has now done. Hopefully they will enforce it.

[webbles]

8 hours ago, california boy said:

The place my father is living is locked down tighter than a drum.  No. visitors, including immediate family allowed in except for end of life situations.  Those situations are closely monitored away from the main facility.  No patients are allowed out except for extreme medical visits.  All guest entertainers have been canceled.   All excursions cancelled.  All workers are screened every day.  No outside entertainment allowed at all.  All social gatherings within the facility are canceled.  They now have movie night broadcasts to their rooms rather than the community area.  Exercise class has at least 6' separation.  They are deadly serious about protecting those within the facility.  If the virus gets into a retirement home, given their age, it is highly likely that most of those living there would not make it.  

I honestly just don't get the lack of concern I am hearing from the state of Utah.  Your husband's niece would not have even been allowed in the front door.  She put every single person in that facility at risk.  

At least Utah hasn't had an "corona parties" in the news

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/nj-house-party-host-charged-with-violating-coronavirus-executive-order/2348972/

https://nypost.com/2020/03/28/new-yorkers-are-throwing-corona-potlucks-and-visiting-speakeasies/

 

[Stargazer]

11 hours ago, Calm said:

We do this all the time.  If we never acted before we had accurate info, disasters would be much more disastrous.  Think not acting until one knew how strong a volcano explosion was?  Or not putting troops into the field until you knew accurately how many the invaders had?

You act AND look for accurate info to modify your actions.

I guess I should have said you can't (or it's difficult) to act responsibly on inaccurate or incomplete information.  King Harold of England didn't know the Normans were on their way to invade England in 1066, and so released a large part of his army to harvest their crops, so when they did arrive he couldn't face them with a sufficiently superior force. And lost the war and his life.  

 

[Tacenda]

I hope I'm not going to get wrath for this. This is a YouTube on wearing homemade masks, anyone can make one, with t-shirt or dress shirt material. I don't understand the backlash for even mentioning this. I don't want anyone to wear a mask that could be for someone on the front lines. I only wonder if we personally could wear one to prevent somewhat. I know it may look funny, but maybe just like wearing helmets or seat belts it may become a more common thing. I know this flies in the face of normal behaviour in the United States and it's more common in those countries like China or Japan. 

My voice is alternate on this board, I haven't brought this up anywhere else. I only get my true feelings out on this board usually. Or test them out for feedback or even for helping if it truly does help. 

The following video mentions scientific tests, just like many posts on here saying they believe they won't help. So who is right? Am I wrong to share but others are right to share the opposite view? 

When I drive down the road and am sitting behind a vehicle with a strong engine smell, I immediately put my face inside my shirt because I don't want to smell the fumes and create lung damage. There are days when in Utah with the inversions we get in the winter that our air pollution is at the level of China on some days. Therefore wouldn't it be nice if it was normalized to wear a mask on those days as well? Maybe I just want an excuse to wear my face mask my friend made for me. (J/K'g)

Hopefully I'm not told to delete the information found. Again, and I'm not saying to buy up the allotment of the surgical masks that are in dire need. I'm just wondering if we can make it okay to wear our own homemade ones. I guess I'm not understanding the revolt against them, I'm not against anyone proving to me they won't work.  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HhNo_IOPOtU&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR25oWeluSFzNWcQKXNYcCPrGUh53qpmtTlL9B5SZ1hyTy-wZ1YSKo2Iov4

ETA: I've just now reached my limit on my posts for now, so unable to respond to anyone right away, darn it. Good for you, bad for me, lol!

 

Edited March 30, 2020 by Tacenda

[Calm]

My concern is similar to how I feel about nonharmful quack medicine.  It may not hurt anyone itself, but it may lead to someone not doing something that could help.

If you want to wear your own homemade masks, feel free imo.  The problem in my view is in promoting masks in general for the general, healthy population.  Most who think it will help if they see a lot of people wearing them won't take the time to make their own, but go buy them and therefore could contribute to the current shortage.  I wonder how many people have sewing machines these days or know how to handsew a decent stitch.  A mask is likely easy to learn, but will they...or will they just hit the stores for the mass produced versions?  If it is anything like food, lots of people eating out on a regular basis or living off of prepared food.

For air pollution, not a bad idea to get a mask made for that specifically if biking or motorcycling.  Homemade ones won't filter out much of it though, iirc.

Also be aware if the masks causes you to touch your face more trying to adjust for comfort.  Homemade ones are likely not to be as comfortable.  If you end up touching your face more, it could backfire big time.

And last, still make decisions as if the mask isn't there.  Don't think the mask is giving you added protection so you can now take other risks.  Think of it more as a security blanket for your face, comforting emotionally, but not much else.

I have a mask I wore out during the fires a year or two back.  I wear it sometimes when I want the window open for cold air and someone is burning something nearby.  Only way I could go outside during the fires without feeling instantly sick.  Mine is black, my daughter's is cats or owls iirc.  I fiddle with it a lot when wearing, so it will likely not get used unless I am sick and we have disposables around (in case of potential illness around our daughter and visiting my mom) that are likely better suited for this problem.

A mask needs to properly fit for real protection from inhaling the wrong stuff. It just isn't the stuff in front of your mouth and nose that matters, it's the edges too. That isn't likely to happen with the cheaper versions.  Think of how good a seal over your food would be if the plastic wrap didn't go over the edge in a tight seal and instead had a number of gaps.  Would you think your food was protected from drying out, bugs crawling in If left on countertop, or absorbing other food smells if in refrigerator or pantry?  Your mask has to fit tightly enough for the air you are breathing to be drawn in through the filter and not get sucked in through the sides, which if not tight will be the path of least resistance.

Edited March 30, 2020 by Calm

[Calm]

Quote

Key messages

What is already known about this subject?

Both the filtration efficiency and edge-seal leakage of a face mask or respirator are important in determining the exposure reduction a mask will confer on the wearer.

Mask wearing is associated with positive impacts such as short-term reductions in blood pressure and increases in heart rate variability, but the exposure reduction associated with these impacts is not known.

What are the new findings?

Filtration efficiency of a face mask does not necessarily translate into consistent exposure reduction for individuals.

Some masks marketed as highly efficient at reducing particulate exposure do not achieve the claimed exposure reduction when worn by individuals.

Even the best performing masks did not always reduce exposure consistently across a range of activities.

How might this impact on policy or clinical practice in the foreseeable future?

This study indicates that rigorous and standardised testing, including volunteer trials, should be conducted to ensure the efficacy of all face masks available for consumer use against air pollution.

Furthermore, consumers and regulators should be better informed about the exposure impacts of different mask types and how to ensure that masks fit appropriately.

Researchers interested in investigating the health impacts of face masks should include measurements of exposure reduction on study participants to more accurately evaluate the impact of mask wearing on air pollution exposure.

https://oem.bmj.com/content/75/6/446

[Calm]

Tacenda, in response to your video...

The Czech Republic required face coverings starting March 18th a few days after statewide quarantine in place.  I don't see how they can separate the two to determine effectiveness at this stage.  As long as they are keeping the strict requirements in place and not relying on masks to fill in unnecessary gaps or depriving those in high risks circumstances of the better ones and instead relying on homemade ones from their neighbours, why not?

Care of them needs to be taught too.  Not properly handling for cleaning or disposable of an infected person's mask could be dangerous.

The video was doing okay when it said partial blockage, but then it said if you wear a mask and I wear a mask, we both are safe.  Not true.  Possibly safer.  Not sure how much, depends on how much care is taken to fit the mask, to handle it properly, and not to use it as a substitute.  The CDC does recommend sick people wear masks to lower spread when coughing, etc.  As long as people understand the purpose and limitations of masks, how to properly wear and care for them, I don't see it as a negative.  It is more those people who are healthy hoarding the ones needed for professionals, etc. just in case or people thinking it makes carelessness in other ways okay.  Sure, hug grandma because you are wearing a mask....not good.

It will be interesting to see the data coming out of the CR in the next months.  Hopefully the effect of masks will be able to be identified.

Edited March 31, 2020 by Calm

[Calm]

I have a bunch of white cotton gloves I am thinking of wearing when .I go out.  I have them because of a very bad case of eczema awhile back, didn't need that many but they came in bulk.  I don't see any inherent protection in wearing them, but anticipate they will remind me not to touch my face.  I am not recommending this as a wise practice because for others it may have the opposite effect...maybe a kid would suck on gloves or someone might wash hands less, etc.

A mask might have the same benefit for some, hard to put fingers in the mouth with a mask on, but fingers may go to eyes more if mask poorly fitted and steaming glasses up, etc.

Generic advice without detailed info in how to make it work won't help.  Think being told just to wash one's hands in the past to how they are saying now, including for 20 sec.  The first version helps a little, the last version is a major protection.  From what I have seen most people are talking about wearing masks like being to,d to wash one's hands, not being told in explicit detail how to do it and how it actually helps.

Edited March 30, 2020 by Calm

[Calm]

So are the masks helping here or just making them feel safer?  Did the masks make the crowding okay in airport officials' eyes?  This is my biggest concern with promotion of masks.

[Calm]

https://www.deseret.com/utah/2020/3/30/21199751/coronavirus-covid-19-utah-ventilators-hospital-system-overwhelmed-capacity

Quote

Dr. Angela Dunn, the state’s epidemiologist, said that even though Utah has a roughly 8% hospitalization rate, which is “small” compared to other states, if cases continue to rise at their current rate, “we will overwhelm our health system in coming weeks.” 

Still, Utah’s case rate isn’t growing as fast as other states. “That means social distancing is working,” she said. 

Herbert also said state officials are seeking to ramp up testing, from 2,000 tests a day to hopefully 7,000 a day. 

“In doing so, that’s going to help us reduce the transmission rate,” the governor said. “Our goal is to drive down the transmission rate and keep from overwhelming our health care system.”

That’s why the next few weeks are crucial for Utahns to social distance and abide by local orders. 

“The next two weeks are critical,” Herbert said. “Everybody has a role to play and everybody needs to be engaged.”

I wonder if they factor in age in the stats as Utah has the youngest population iirc.

PS:  sorry about my explosion of posts on masks, I was trying to figure out if I was awake enough to stay awake or not. I was not...as I can now easily see by the number of masks posts. 

Edited March 31, 2020 by Calm

[Kenngo1969]

18 hours ago, Meadowchik said:

A much simpler and safer solution would be imo to just ban the sale and purchase of wild animals in markets, which China has now done. Hopefully they will enforce it.

As much of a proportion of the problem as that may address, I'm not certain it would solve the entire problem.

[Tacenda]

Today I received an email asking the sisters in the stake to sign up to volunteer at the Deseret Mill. I'm a little taken aback by this. Couldn't the church just buy up some already made pasta or give $ for those asking for it? This is very dangerous and isn't following the rules IMO. I get that there are several places making food for people in their individual restaurants, but like families, they are the same people usually day in and day out. But in this case you're bringing people in from all walks, sort of. What are anyone's thoughts on this? 

Here's the email c/p along with the information at the bottom of a spreadsheet for people to sign up for times. I believe this would be a time to "use the rainy day fund". The church is putting many at risk, IMO. 

Sisters, 

 

We have been assigned a week to help at the Deseret Mill and Pasta Plant Service. The stake has been assigned the week of April 13-17. We are in charge of filling 20 spots, any day that week, and would love it if you could help in any way. I know that the church is trying to push more food production as there is more of a need during this time. If you would, could you please follow the link to the google form, and sign up for a slot, it would be greatly appreciated. 

 

There are separate tabs at the bottom of the form for each day. If you need any help getting the form to open or do not have access to look at a google doc, please let me know and I can fill in a time for you. I know there are 7:45-11:30 AM shifts and 12:15-4:30 PM shifts.

Let me know if I can help in any way! Thank you for service.

 

*We have been asked why the Deseret Mill and Pasta is open and not closed during the COVID-19 response. To answer,

the Deseret Mill and Pasta has been designated as a critical infrastructure industry by the Department of Homeland Security.

As a food production facility, we will remain open and producing food items under the direction of the Presiding Bishopric and

the Welfare and Self-Reliance Committee. Deseret Mill and Pasta has been tasked to continue providing the critical food

supply needs for the Bishop Storehouses and Home Storage facilities.

What makes this work is the many volunteers from the 49 Stakes that provide volunteers. We need the support of all these

Stakes to meet the production needs of the Church Welfare system. We understand this is a volunteer's system and we have

been asked by the federal and local government leaders to stay at home, but without your Stakes support we will find it

hard to meet our production needs. We ask that if you volunteer please ensure that you are not feeling ill or been exposed to

anyone who is ill. We are trying to maintain as much as possible the social distance requirement, however if you have served

at the mill you know that during production that is not possible.

If any volunteers don't feel safe in being at the Mill at this time we understand. The need is great. This time last year, March

of 2019 the Church sold 9,000 lbs. of Home Storage items. During March of 2020 we have sold over 120,000 lbs. of product

so far!!

Please fulfill your assignments as assigned to ensure we have the workforce necessary to provide these critical and vital food

items. We thank you in advance for your service at the Mill today and in the future.

[Calm]

2 minutes ago, Tacenda said:

Couldn't the church just buy up some already made pasta or give $ for those asking for it?

Someone has to make the food.

Did you miss this?

Quote

Deseret Mill and Pasta has been designated as a critical infrastructure industry by the Department of Homeland Security

 

[Tacenda]

3 minutes ago, Calm said:

Someone has to make the food.

Did you miss this?

 

Here is an article I just dug up having to do with it. I think it's a wonderful idea except for the times we're in at the moment. Trying to weigh the pros and the cons. I think the cons win, IMO. 

https://www.deseret.com/faith/2020/3/20/21188511/coronavirus-mormon-latter-day-saint-charities-covid-19

ETA: Here's a portion, that dosen't sit well with me. And since when do we have a pasta shortage? I'd like proof of that. 

The church sells some of its food products in home storage centers designed to help people build up their home food storage. Those centers began to experience a substantial increase in demand over the past two weeks, another reason the church’s system has expanded production, Park said.

Edited April 1, 2020 by Tacenda

[Calm]

3 minutes ago, Tacenda said:

Here is an article I just dug up having to do with it. I think it's a wonderful idea except for the times we're in at the moment. Trying to weigh the pros and the cons. I think the cons win, IMO. 

https://www.deseret.com/faith/2020/3/20/21188511/coronavirus-mormon-latter-day-saint-charities-covid-19

Where do you suggest they get this volume of food being requested?

Quote

This time last year, March of 2019 the Church sold 9,000 lbs. of Home Storage items. During March of 2020 we have sold over 120,000 lbs. of product

9,000  vs 120,000

[Tacenda]

2 minutes ago, Calm said:

Where do you suggest they get this volume of food being requested?

9,000  vs 120,000

The operative word "sold" here.

[Calm]

5 minutes ago, Tacenda said:

The operative word "sold" here.

From the article they both sell (at low cost in my experience) for food storage and donate to storehouses, food banks, etc.  I think he is likely using “sold” to cover both, but that may just cover the increase in selling of food storage and if so, given the increase in donations, need is much higher.  I know the storehouses were doing thanksgiving week level of service last month. That food did not come from the Walmart across the street. 

Edited April 1, 2020 by Calm

[Tacenda]

13 minutes ago, Calm said:

From the article they both sell (at low cost in my experience) for food storage and donate to storehouses, food banks, etc.  I think he is likely using “sold” to cover both. I know the storehouses were doing thanksgiving week level of service last month. That food did not come from the Walmart across the street. 

They are wrong to have people do this, I don't see this as a crisis thing at all. That's money making, IMO. 

https://providentliving.churchofjesuschrist.org/food-storage/home-storage-center-locations-map?lang=eng

Why not buy from Walmart?

ETA: I understand that the cannery is the best for longtime food storage because of price and the long storage life. But at this time I think times are different, and people shouldn't be asked to volunteer right now for something that can be handled in a more safe way. I think the demand for it has something to do with panic and wanting to build up food storage.

Edited April 1, 2020 by Tacenda

[Calm]

23 minutes ago, Tacenda said:

Why not buy from Walmart?

 

Because people who have lost jobs or may lose their jobs or have to take a cut in pay tend to want to spend less if they can so they have enough for everything.

Food storage is not just to store, it is to eat...like now for many.

If the Church buys from Walmart, who will be producing that food?

Is the risk to produce food okay as long as it is not the Church asking or are you suggesting all food production get shutdown?  Or is the issue people are being asked to volunteer to take some risks to help others?  Should only people who are paid take risks in your opinion?  Should all charities that put their people in potentially harmful situations send their people home?

Should food banks run by volunteers be shut down at this time?  Shelters?

Edited April 1, 2020 by Calm

[Tacenda]

Just now, Calm said:

Because people who have lost jobs or may lose their jobs or have to take a cut in pay tend to want to spend less if they can so they have enough for everything.

Food storage is not just to store, it is to eat...like now for many.

Okay, I'll agree to disagree right now.  

[Rain]

43 minutes ago, Tacenda said:

They are wrong to have people do this, I don't see this as a crisis thing at all. That's money making, IMO. 

Sold does NOT mean money making.  It means that it wasn't just given away.

43 minutes ago, Tacenda said:

https://providentliving.churchofjesuschrist.org/food-storage/home-storage-center-locations-map?lang=eng

Why not buy from Walmart?

How cool is it that people can eliminate one more layer of where covid can be spread by being able to buy the food where it was made!

43 minutes ago, Tacenda said:

ETA: I understand that the cannery is the best for longtime food storage because of price and the long storage life. But at this time I think times are different, and people shouldn't be asked to volunteer right now for something that can be handled in a more safe way.

How do you suggest making food in a more safe way?

43 minutes ago, Tacenda said:

I think the demand for it has something to do with panic and wanting to build up food storage.

Probably. It also has to do with the food not being on "Walmart' shelves. 

 

[Tacenda]

2 hours ago, Rain said:

Sold does NOT mean money making.  It means that it wasn't just given away.

How cool is it that people can eliminate one more layer of where covid can be spread by being able to buy the food where it was made!

How do you suggest making food in a more safe way?

Probably. It also has to do with the food not being on "Walmart' shelves. 

 

I shopped Walmart online and there is plenty of pasta, it's limited, so no food storage, but it will get them by. And the church is asking volunteers to put their lives on the line IMO, emphasis on "volunteer". The church isn't paying them, so not giving a job to someone, like those that are working to make pasta. I think it's awful, I would think this in my very staunch LDS life as well. So if they are asking 49 stakes times 20, that's a whole lot of people. Luckily, I don't see many signing up, hope people won't. 

[Rain]

7 minutes ago, Tacenda said:

I shopped Walmart online and there is plenty of pasta, it's limited, so no food storage, but it will get them by. And the church is asking volunteers to put their lives on the line IMO, emphasis on "volunteer". The church isn't paying them, so not giving a job to someone, like those that are working to make pasta. I think it's awful, I would think this in my very staunch LDS life as well. So if they are asking 49 stakes times 20, that's a whole lot of people. Luckily, I don't see many signing up, hope people won't. 

Volunteer being the key word.  Volunteering, not being forced, to help people get an actual essential NEED.  If you don't feel comfortable providing food for people for 1 day you don't need to volunteer and I won't even begin to feel badly of you.

Having volunteered in the pasta plant a number of times I am sure they take precautions more now than ever.  

Where do you think Walmart gets their pasta?  At a place that makes it.  Why are you not calling out Bertolli when they ARE actually doing it for profit?

 

[Tacenda]

36 minutes ago, Rain said:

Volunteer being the key word.  Volunteering, not being forced, to help people get an actual essential NEED.  If you don't feel comfortable providing food for people for 1 day you don't need to volunteer and I won't even begin to feel badly of you.

Having volunteered in the pasta plant a number of times I am sure they take precautions more now than ever.  

Where do you think Walmart gets their pasta?  At a place that makes it.  Why are you not calling out Bertolli when they ARE actually doing it for profit?

 

I volunteered there too, I use to live in Kaysville and now in Layton. I had no problem volunteering there, but all this time I thought it was food being for those that can't afford to buy it, dummy me. In fact my family was a recipient when I was a child and my dad was laid off and he was working three jobs to support a family of eight.

Bertolli? They are paying their people and people do need that job. And they have all been together for a long time I'm thinking. Whereas people that haven't been around each other is different. And if you read the whole c/p it mentions they aren't able to keep the restrictions of 6 feet apart as the Deseret News mentions they do, so that's misleading. 

Also, I called the person over this in the church, left a message. Maybe he'll relieve my stress over it. Again, I don't mind if they are volunteers, but at this time?  

ETA: c/p pertaining to the distance working together..

We are trying to maintain as much as possible the social distance requirement, however if you have served

at the mill you know that during production that is not possible.

ETA again: out of posts, I may need to use my edit function until it goes away, to answer your reply if you give one.

ETA thrice: Okay Rain, I'm sorry for my continuing to beat this to a pulp. I understand you have enough going on, I'm sorry, just read about your missionary daughter. Take care!!

Edited April 1, 2020 by Tacenda