Are we really in a new era of doubt as Stack claims?

[canard78]

Oh for goodness sake. 

I hate to say "I told you so..." (I told myself so...). 

I honestly hadn't read this before posting the previous comment but this just popped up on the news feed of another group I'm in.  

http://www.sltrib.com/lifestyle/faith/3528999-155/what-mormons-had-to-say-about

Their lead topic after breaking down the profile of members/non-members who responded... Doubt triggers... and in them... 

Joseph Smith, Polygamy, First Vision, LGBT. So predictable.

Come on "bloggernacle doubting mormons," do me a favour and stop giving us all a bad name. 

[canard78]

13 minutes ago, Nevo said:

If doubters are really just a negligible percentage of the Church's population and their numbers are actually shrinking, then someone should notify Salt Lake. Apparently they haven't all received Elder Cook's memo. It seems that Palmer, Dehlin, Runnells, MormonThink, Google, reddit, Facebook, etc., haven't had any appreciable impact at all. So we can all breathe a sigh of relief. FairMormon can close up shop. North American tithing revenues are safe. The millennials aren't going anywhere. All is well in Zion.

They don't have to be negligible. I just question whether they are in greater volume than before which is the claim from the SLT. Is this a new era of doubt? Or is it just that we've always had doubt? I had doubt before and after the advent of the Internet. 

In the last 15 years my family is one of three "long term" families who has stopped attending. I'm that time there have been around 30-40 convert baptisms (at a guesstimate) with less than 10% retention rates. I know I'm just another anecdote, but until there is evidence to say that the volume of "lifers" leaving is increasing (rather than the normal high church in new members dropping out) then I don't see how we can support or endorse the SLT's claims. 

[Hamba Tuhan]

Quarterly reports contain no data on tithing, but I thought it would be interesting to analyse for my ward the other key indicator mentioned by Elder Cook, percentage of endowed members with current temple recommends. For some reason, this appears in my ward's reports only beginning in 2002, and it's an incredibly volatile statistic. Nonetheless, the trend line is again very clear:

[sjdawg]

30 minutes ago, Hamba Tuhan said:

Quarterly reports contain no data on tithing, but I thought it would be interesting to analyse for my ward the other key indicator mentioned by Elder Cook, percentage of endowed members with current temple recommends. For some reason, this appears in my ward's reports only beginning in 2002, and it's an incredibly volatile statistic. Nonetheless, the trend line is again very clear:

I don't see any clear improvement in this statistic.  I agree it is very volatile but it looks like a slight decrease or perhaps level from your starting point of Q1 2002 to your end point of Q4 2015

[sjdawg]

6 hours ago, Hamba Tuhan said:

No, I'm not aware, and neither are you if we can trust your post below:

I am aware of people's estimates of activity rates, but the only attendance numbers I'm actually reasonably confident about come from my own ward. For what it may be worth -- one ward can only be a single data point -- I've made a chart of average sacrament meeting attendance for my ward from 2000 to 2015, inclusive, using the quarterly reports:

I hope this chart, and specifically its trend line,* help people understand why I state that I simply don't see people falling away from the Church in these parts. During the entire time period presented here, our ward boundaries have remained unchanged and only a very small amount of new housing has been added to one suburb on the fringes of the ward, so this is a pretty good example of the actual growth in activity that we've experienced over the past 16 years.

Does this mean that other congregations aren't really in the midst of an unprecedented wave of apostasy? No. They may well be. But I'm just not seeing it here. 

And by the way, the curious side of me would love to see a chart like this for the entire Church, but I completely understand why such charts are not made available. To narrow things down to my own ward, imagine the critics' hooting and hollering that easily could have occurred during 2002 and again beginning near the end of 2014. I personally know what happened/is happening in our ward during both of those periods and so can put the data into context, but I see no reason to make un-tethered data available to those who care nothing about context but rather are just looking for one more thing they can shout from the windows of the great and spacious building at those who they know are susceptible to such commotion.

-----

* For what it may be worth, sacrament meeting attendance in our ward over the past three weeks (which is as far back as I can remember) has been 207, 197 and 165, which means that I suspect that Q1 2016 won't alter this trend line too much.

How has total ward membership changed over this time period?   Has the activity rate improved over the same period or what has caused the increased attendance?  Convert Baptisms?  Families having children?

If that increase has come through convert baptisms and/or less actives returning to attendance it is pretty impressive.  I'd say your ward is doing something right.

Edited February 17, 2016 by sjdawg

[Bernard Gui]

On February 14, 2016 at 10:10 AM, canard78 said:

Peggy Fletcher Stack claims that "today's crisis of faith among Information Age believers somehow seems new... (and) vast... Their numbers appear staggering."

Stack uses the useful columnists' words: "seems" and "appears." She offers no solid evidence that I can find other than anecdotal. Are we really in an era of doubt, or does the advent of the internet simply mean that those who doubt have more situations to discuss that doubt, making it feel more prevalent? I'm sure that Stack spends plenty of time in the non-representative "bloggernacle."

When I was actively involved in both "chapel Mormonism*" (the day to day life of meetings, activities, home teaching etc) and "bloggernacle Mormonism" (groups like bycommonconsent, this forum, Mormon stories etc) it was like two different churches. The "chapel mormons" had generally never heard of John Dehlin, CESLetter, puremormonism etc. They enjoyed their church experience, got on with life and while certainly having personal challenges, weaknesses and, yes of course, doubts, they didn't get drawn into the navel gazing and angst of the bloggernacle.

So are we really in a new era of doubt? If we are, will Mormonism (or the faith of Mormons) become stronger in this new era of doubt?
http://www.sltrib.com/lifestyle/faith/3527240-155/in-this-new-era-of-doubt?fullpage=1

*I don't use the term in a derogatory way, I was just looking for a term to describe the day-to-day Mormon experience.

We should not be surprised. This has been foretold..... from a discussion 2 years ago.... 

 

"Those of us who think “. . . all is well in Zion . . .” in spite of Book of Mormon warning might ponder the words of Heber C. Kimball when he said, “Yes, we think we are secure here in the chambers of these everlasting hills . . . but I want to say to you, my brethren, the time is coming when we will be mixed up in these now peaceful valleys to that extent that it will be difficult to tell the face of a Saint from the face of an enemy against the people of God. Then is the time to look out for the great sieve, for there will be a great sifting time, and many will fall. For I say unto you there is a test, a Test, a TEST coming.” (Heber C. Kimball, 1856. Quoted by J. Golden Kimball, Conference Report, October 1930, pp. 59-60.)"

Edited February 17, 2016 by Bernard Gui

[carbon dioxide]

13 minutes ago, Bernard Gui said:

"Those of us who think “. . . all is well in Zion . . .” in spite of Book of Mormon warning might ponder the words of Heber C. Kimball when he said, “Yes, we think we are secure here in the chambers of these everlasting hills . . . but I want to say to you, my brethren, the time is coming when we will be mixed up in these now peaceful valleys to that extent that it will be difficult to tell the face of a Saint from the face of an enemy against the people of God. Then is the time to look out for the great sieve, for there will be a great sifting time, and many will fall. For I say unto you there is a test, a Test, a TEST coming.” (Heber C. Kimball, 1856. Quoted by J. Golden Kimball, Conference Report, October 1930, pp. 59-60.)"

I guess so far my family both immediate and extended are passing the test with a very few exceptions.  I wonder what comes after the test.  What blessings will we get.  Maybe God will return the brass plates to the Church.

[canard78]

18 minutes ago, Bernard Gui said:

We should not be surprised. This has been foretold..... from a discussion 2 years ago.... 

 

"Those of us who think “. . . all is well in Zion . . .” in spite of Book of Mormon warning might ponder the words of Heber C. Kimball when he said, “Yes, we think we are secure here in the chambers of these everlasting hills . . . but I want to say to you, my brethren, the time is coming when we will be mixed up in these now peaceful valleys to that extent that it will be difficult to tell the face of a Saint from the face of an enemy against the people of God. Then is the time to look out for the great sieve, for there will be a great sifting time, and many will fall. For I say unto you there is a test, a Test, a TEST coming.” (Heber C. Kimball, 1856. Quoted by J. Golden Kimball, Conference Report, October 1930, pp. 59-60.)"

The least you could do is put a winking emoticon or something  I very nearly looked this one up!

[Hamba Tuhan]

3 hours ago, sjdawg said:

I don't see any clear improvement in this statistic.  I agree it is very volatile but it looks like a slight decrease or perhaps level from your starting point of Q1 2002 to your end point of Q4 2015

Did you notice the trend line?

[Hamba Tuhan]

40 minutes ago, sjdawg said:

Has the activity rate improved over the same period or what has caused the increased attendance?  Convert Baptisms?  Families having children?

All of the above.

[sjdawg]

27 minutes ago, Hamba Tuhan said:

Did you notice the trend line?

Indeed I did note the trend line.   If that graph represented my bank account balance would you say I had more money in Q1 2002 or Q4 2015?

the trend line shows an positive trend only because of the volatility, in particular the extreme downturns in 2004 and 2008.  Trend lines are great tools that I use often but in the end it is the real numbers that matter.  Your chart on Sacrament meeting shows real growth.  Your chart on temple recommend percentages shows theoretical progress.  In reality after 13 years of analysis you are still at the same point where you started.  Playing with your dates could create a more positive trend or show a negative trend depending on the date range you choice.   (I appreciate that you showed all available stats).  My guess is that 60-70% temple recommend holders is about as high as you can reasonable expect to maintain. 

Edited February 17, 2016 by sjdawg

[Hamba Tuhan]

13 minutes ago, sjdawg said:

If that graph represented my bank account balance would you say I had more money in Q1 2002 or Q4 2015?

Since it's a percentage of a base number that has also be increasing, yes, I'd say you have much more. (In fact, I just looked it up: 40 in Q1 2002 and 79 in Q4 2015.) But temple recommends are not money in any case, which is one of the reasons we track them as a percent of endowed members, just as you might track something else subject to extreme volatility -- such as whether an investment is profitable -- and look to see if there's a trend.

Edited February 17, 2016 by Hamba Tuhan

[sjdawg]

12 minutes ago, Hamba Tuhan said:

Since it's a percentage of a base number that has also be increasing, yes, I'd say you have much more. (In fact, I just looked it up: 40 in Q1 2002 and 79 in Q4 2015.) But temple recommends are not money in any case, which is one of the reasons we track them as a percent of endowed members, just as you might track something else subject to extreme volatility -- such as whether an investment is profitable -- and look to see if there's a trend.

Fair enough.   If you are talking about total number of recommend holders then I'll agree you likely have more.   In which case I don't think a trend line using percentages of total is a proper method.  it would be better to use total number of recommend holders.   If you maintained 60% temple recommend holders but continued to increase the number of endowed members over 15 years then you would have a real positive trend in the number of total recommend holders.

 

[sjdawg]

25 minutes ago, Hamba Tuhan said:

All of the above.

Then your ward is doing something right.  Nicely done

[Hamba Tuhan]

2 minutes ago, sjdawg said:

Then your ward is doing something right.  Nicely done

Thanks, mate.

[Scott Lloyd]

12 hours ago, Nevo said:

If doubters are really just a negligible percentage of the Church's population and their numbers are actually shrinking, then someone should notify Salt Lake. Apparently they haven't all received Elder Cook's memo. It seems that Palmer, Dehlin, Runnells, MormonThink, Google, reddit, Facebook, etc., haven't had any appreciable impact at all. So we can all breathe a sigh of relief. FairMormon can close up shop. North American tithing revenues are safe. The millennials aren't going anywhere. All is well in Zion.

Concern on the part of Church leaders and others over those who are faltering in the faith does not have to be taken as a sign there is more doubt in the Church than ever before or that the Church has lost strength. As I've quoted Elder Cook more than once from that conference talk a year ago:

Quote

Let me say again, the Church has never been stronger. But, “remember the worth of souls is great in the sight of God.”²⁵ We reach out to everyone.

 

[Tacenda]

I think Canard may be wrong on his statistics, even though it's his expertise.  I listened to this Trib Talk today.  Maybe the church will allow space for the doubters and even provide a place to talk.  I think the church will have to change in order to handle the problem, if they don't and become more insular then maybe that's the approach the leaders feel is best.  I don't know if that is God talking or not.  Maybe God has plenty of other people to fill His kingdom from other worlds, dunno.  

http://www.sltrib.com/blogs/tribtalk/3541062-155/trib-talk-a-new-mormon-faith

Edited February 17, 2016 by Tacenda