Covid III: Delta Force

[BlueDreams]

12 hours ago, Calm said:

It would be unfortunate if infection rate is not dropped (I haven’t looked at the study yet, does it differentiate between those who have reached supposed heed immunity and those who haven’t?), but all the more reason to get vaccinated to avoid serious illness and death. 

It mentions this: 

Quote

Of the top 5 counties that have the highest percentage of population fully vaccinated (99.9–84.3%), the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) identifies 4 of them as “High” Transmission counties. Chattahoochee (Georgia), McKinley (New Mexico), and Arecibo (Puerto Rico) counties have above 90% of their population fully vaccinated with all three being classified as “High” transmission. Conversely, of the 57 counties that have been classified as “low” transmission counties by the CDC, 26.3% (15) have percentage of population fully vaccinated below 20%.

….

We should note that the COVID-19 case data is of confirmed cases, which is a function of both supply (e.g., variation in testing capacities or reporting practices) and demand-side (e.g., variation in people’s decision on when to get tested) factors.

It also noted countries that have higher vaccination rates may also have a slight correlation with higher covid cases…which makes sense really. Countries that have a higher vaccination rate, tend to loosen covid restrictions they had in place. Which means with delta in the air whoever isn’t vaccinated and a number who are will likely get covid. 
 

i have several questions about the study. For example they note that the numbers of transmission are based in part on supply/demand factors. This is really important. For example, UT has a problem right now with demand artificially indicating we reduced case count, while percent positive has stayed steady and recently increased, indicating that the actual rate of transmission likely hasn’t changed much…people are just being less careful with it or likely assuming they have a cold or flu instead (particularly sense delta more resembles flu in mild cases compared to the og strain). Some other counties with super high rates of vax have me questioning the counties way of counting things. For example McKinley NM has an >99% overall vaccination rate…with a near 5% of it’s population under the age of 5. There’s no way that’s accurate. I chose it randomly but when I looked up articles on the county’s rate I found this articles explaining they’re really bad counting measure: here. Another tracking sit outside their numbers at 74%. Which is a large margin of error and would put that counting just a little above the country’s overall rate in a region that has a high risk for transmission. 
 

i doubt every county has these exact same problems, but they likely have concerns and individual circumstances that need to be taken into consideration for a study like this. The study is so broad in scope, I strongly doubt that was the case. The other thing I’m interested in is the county’s/country’s hospitalization and death rate. Most epidemiologists are shooting now more for an endemic scenario. Where there’s still cases, but not excessive flare ups/spikes that overwhelm medical services. This study doesn’t over that at all. 
 

with luv, 

BD 

[Calm]

45 minutes ago, BlueDreams said:

also noted countries that have higher vaccination rates may also have a slight correlation with higher covid cases…which makes sense really. Countries that have a higher vaccination rate, tend to loosen covid restrictions they had in place. Which means with delta in the air whoever isn’t vaccinated and a number who are will likely get covid. 

There are higher vaccination rates in urban areas, but those are more likely to have ‘better’ spread than rural. I need to read the study, maybe my brain will be there once I sleep, but counties should be compared with density as well. 

[Harry T. Clark]

Here is a chart showing daily new confirmed cases and the percent vaccinated in 4 countries: France, Ireland, Ukraine, and Romania. 

Perhaps the vaccines are making people more vulnerable to the delta variant? Antibody dependent enhancement (ADE) could be the culprit.  ADE is caused by a weak antibody response to a pathogen that doesn't prevent infection.  Instead, the weak response leads to a worse reaction to the pathogen and more severe disease.  It is a side effect of some vaccines.  Here is a good article explaining the phenomenon:  https://sharylattkisson.com/2021/08/study-why-so-many-vaccinated-people-are-getting-sick/

Here are some scientific publications on the subject.

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/20587384211050199

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7484565/

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32908214/

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8438590/

[pogi]

17 minutes ago, Harry T. Clark said:

Here is a chart showing daily new confirmed cases and the percent vaccinated in 4 countries: France, Ireland, Ukraine, and Romania. 

Perhaps the vaccines are making people more vulnerable to the delta variant? Antibody dependent enhancement (ADE) could be the culprit.  ADE is caused by a weak antibody response to a pathogen that doesn't prevent infection.  Instead, the weak response leads to a worse reaction to the pathogen and more severe disease.  It is a side effect of some vaccines.  Here is a good article explaining the phenomenon:  https://sharylattkisson.com/2021/08/study-why-so-many-vaccinated-people-are-getting-sick/

Here are some scientific publications on the subject.

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/20587384211050199

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7484565/

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32908214/

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8438590/

Can you show me where Covid vaccinations are associated with higher incidence of "more severe disease" please?

[pogi]

21 hours ago, strappinglad said:

What shall we do ?

Get vaccinated, wear a good mask, or two, etc. 

[BlueDreams]

Update: I got curious and checked out the 2 other counties they mentione. Arecibo also has an impossibly high vaccination rate  (99% of the population with a normal age population distribution) and Chattahoochee is definitely wrong. It ranges anywhere from 99% to 15-20% vaccination rates depending who's counting and the average age there is 24. The demographics mean at least 5-10% of the population has to be under 12. 

I'm now seriously questioning this research. It took me just a few minutes to figure out that their examples of super high vaccination rates are super questionable for their accuracy in counting. The highest countries are all still in the 80% range. 

 

With luv,

BD

[Calm]

28 minutes ago, Harry T. Clark said:

Here is a good article explaining the phenomenon:

Do any of these studies show the vaccinated as being more likely to get infected, all other things the same?

How about more likely to be hospitalized or die?

[pogi]

30 minutes ago, BlueDreams said:

Update: I got curious and checked out the 2 other counties they mentione. Arecibo also has an impossibly high vaccination rate  (99% of the population with a normal age population distribution) and Chattahoochee is definitely wrong. It ranges anywhere from 99% to 15-20% vaccination rates depending who's counting and the average age there is 24. The demographics mean at least 5-10% of the population has to be under 12. 

I'm now seriously questioning this research. It took me just a few minutes to figure out that their examples of super high vaccination rates are super questionable for their accuracy in counting. The highest countries are all still in the 80% range. 

 

With luv,

BD

These types of population studies are inherently weak.  There are way too many uncontrolled variables.   

Having said that, a growing body of research in more controlled studies do show that vaccinations do indeed reduce transmission of Delta, but that lasts only for a limited amount of time (around 3 months).   It is too early to say for sure, but annual booster doses may also improve the efficacy of the vaccine to reduce transmission. 

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/vaccinated-people-are-less-likely-spread-covid-new-research-finds-n1280583

Anyone who uses this data to argue against the vaccine is ignoring the other huge benefits of vaccination - like protection against severe disease and decreased burden on hospital systems.  

What we should take from this?

Quote

“We need to combine our vaccines with other measures to reduce how much virus we get exposed to by things like masking and testing,” Butler-Wu said. “Additive measures is the name of the game here.”

 

Edited October 18, 2021 by pogi

[Harry T. Clark]

25 minutes ago, pogi said:

Can you show me where Covid vaccinations are associated with higher incidence of "more severe disease" please?

The charts I provided talk about cases, not hospitalizations, and ADE could be enhancing the chances of more severe disease because there are more cases.  In the UK, the health department recently got into a row over whether 60% of hospital patients were vaccinated or not.  40% hospitalizations among the fully vaccinated isn't a good number and perhaps it says that we ought to do a warp speed deal for early treatments or look closer at what some doctors are saying.  See here: https://americasfrontlinedoctors.org/covid/hydroxychloroquine/treatment-protocols/  

Anyway, look at the case numbers, right, like we were invited to last year at this time.  They are scary.  Or has that lost its effectiveness given that more are vaccinated now?  Yes, move the posts and concentrate on hospitalizations.

In Taiwan, the number of deaths associated with the vaccine exceed the number of deaths associated with covid-19.  This is obviously disturbing news and needs to be looked at closer.  It may be the answer to your question.  https://medicaltrend.org/2021/10/10/taiwan-death-from-covid-19-vaccination-exceeds-death-from-covid-19/

 

[Tacenda]

3 minutes ago, Harry T. Clark said:

The charts I provided talk about cases, not hospitalizations, and ADE could be enhancing the chances of more severe disease because there are more cases.  In the UK, the health department recently got into a row over whether 60% of hospital patients were vaccinated or not.  40% hospitalizations among the fully vaccinated isn't a good number and perhaps it says that we ought to do a warp speed deal for early treatments or look closer at what some doctors are saying.  See here: https://americasfrontlinedoctors.org/covid/hydroxychloroquine/treatment-protocols/  

Anyway, look at the case numbers, right, like we were invited to last year at this time.  They are scary.  Or has that lost its effectiveness given that more are vaccinated now?  Yes, move the posts and concentrate on hospitalizations.

In Taiwan, the number of deaths associated with the vaccine exceed the number of deaths associated with covid-19.  This is obviously disturbing news and needs to be looked at closer.  It may be the answer to your question.  https://medicaltrend.org/2021/10/10/taiwan-death-from-covid-19-vaccination-exceeds-death-from-covid-19/

 

Pretty scary but how do we know if it's legit? It could be a made up thing, but I'm all for the truth. 

[Harry T. Clark]

28 minutes ago, Calm said:

Do any of these studies show the vaccinated as being more likely to get infected, all other things the same?

How about more likely to be hospitalized or die?

The studies I linked to don't talk about hospitalizations and my understanding is that the vaccinated are just as likely to be infected and transmit the disease as the unvaccinated.  The idea of the vaccines was to lessen symptoms only, not stop infection or transmission.  At this point, I don't think we know what will happen as it is too early to know.  ADE is a problem and has been in prior vaccine campaigns.  From the Atkinson article:

Quote

Dengue virus — In 2016, a dengue virus vaccine was designed to protect against all four serotypes of the virus. The hope was that by inducing immune responses to all four serotypes at once, the vaccine could circumvent the issues related to ADE following disease with dengue virus. The vaccine was given to 800,000 children in the Philippines. Fourteen vaccinated children died after encountering dengue virus in the community. It is hypothesized that the children developed antibody responses that were not capable of neutralizing the natural virus circulating in the community. As such, the vaccine was recommended only for children greater than 9 years of age who had already been exposed to the virus.

Thank goodness the delta variant is less lethal while being more virulent. This could be a driver in the increased case numbers with less severe outcomes.  Even so, the UK health minister admitted that 40% of the hospitalizations there are among the vaccinated and that doesn't look good for the effectiveness of the vaccines.

[Harry T. Clark]

39 minutes ago, Tacenda said:

Pretty scary but how do we know if it's legit? It could be a made up thing, but I'm all for the truth. 

I'm glad you are for the truth.  You know mere disagreement doesn't equate with malicious intent, right? 

[pogi]

1 hour ago, Harry T. Clark said:

The charts I provided talk about cases, not hospitalizations, and ADE could be enhancing the chances of more severe disease because there are more cases.  In the UK, the health department recently got into a row over whether 60% of hospital patients were vaccinated or not.  40% hospitalizations among the fully vaccinated isn't a good number and perhaps it says that we ought to do a warp speed deal for early treatments or look closer at what some doctors are saying.  See here: https://americasfrontlinedoctors.org/covid/hydroxychloroquine/treatment-protocols/  

Anyway, look at the case numbers, right, like we were invited to last year at this time.  They are scary.  Or has that lost its effectiveness given that more are vaccinated now?  Yes, move the posts and concentrate on hospitalizations.

In Taiwan, the number of deaths associated with the vaccine exceed the number of deaths associated with covid-19.  This is obviously disturbing news and needs to be looked at closer.  It may be the answer to your question.  https://medicaltrend.org/2021/10/10/taiwan-death-from-covid-19-vaccination-exceeds-death-from-covid-19/

CDC study shows unvaccinated people are 29 times more likely to be hospitalized with Covid:
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e5.htm

In Pennsylvania specifically:

Quote

Vaccines Work: 97% Of COVID Deaths, 95% Of Hospitalizations And 94% Of Cases Are Among Unvaccinated Pennsylvanians

https://www.media.pa.gov/pages/health-details.aspx?newsid=1595

Are ADE's the new thing going around social media's campaign? 
 

Quote

Question: 
Do the mRNA vaccines cause Antibody Dependent Enhancement (ADE) with COVID-19 disease?

Answer: 
ADE is when a disease is made worse or more severe in a person who was already exposed to the virus through a previous infection or vaccination compared to people who were never exposed or vaccinated.

Antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) has not been identified as a concern related to SARS-CoV-2 infection or following COVID-19 vaccination. Here are reasons indicating why ADE will not be a concern:

First, most people have been infected with other coronaviruses in their lifetime, and ADE has not been identified as a result of these infections.
Second, in human studies, people previously infected with coronavirus were infected with different types of coronavirus, and they did not experience enhanced disease.
Third, experimental animals vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 did not develop enhanced disease when challenged, or infected, with the virus.
Finally, when people with COVID-19 received plasma containing SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, they did not experience enhanced disease.
For these reasons, ADE is not expected to be a concern for SARS-CoV-2 infections or vaccination.

https://immunizebc.ca/ask-us/questions/do-mrna-vaccines-cause-antibody-dependent-enhancement-ade-covid-19-disease

More good info:

https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/antibody-dependent-enhancement-and-coronavirus-vaccines

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32785649/

Unless you have some hard data for me to show that the risk of vaccination is greater than the risk of disease, I'm not sure what more we have to talk about.  Any hard data about ADE's and Covid vaccines?  Anything???

1 hour ago, Harry T. Clark said:

Anyway, look at the case numbers, right, like we were invited to last year at this time.  They are scary.  Or has that lost its effectiveness given that more are vaccinated now?  Yes, move the posts and concentrate on hospitalizations.

Wait...did you just use the word "scary" in relation to Covid numbers.  Weren't you the one accusing me of fear mongering for suggesting that these numbers are dangerously high previously?  I think I am finally making some headway with you!  

What "goal post" has been moved, exactly?  I have always encouraged people to wear a mask and socially distance and get tested with symptoms, quarantine/isolate when appropriate.  

The fact that you cannot avoid is that the vaccines are proven to reduce risk of severe infection, hospitalization and death.  That is a fact that you have no answer for.  Why you would want to scare people about the vaccine given the numbers is beyond me. 

Edited October 18, 2021 by pogi

[The Nehor]

2 hours ago, Harry T. Clark said:

The charts I provided talk about cases, not hospitalizations, and ADE could be enhancing the chances of more severe disease because there are more cases.  In the UK, the health department recently got into a row over whether 60% of hospital patients were vaccinated or not.  40% hospitalizations among the fully vaccinated isn't a good number and perhaps it says that we ought to do a warp speed deal for early treatments or look closer at what some doctors are saying.  See here: https://americasfrontlinedoctors.org/covid/hydroxychloroquine/treatment-protocols/  

Anyway, look at the case numbers, right, like we were invited to last year at this time.  They are scary.  Or has that lost its effectiveness given that more are vaccinated now?  Yes, move the posts and concentrate on hospitalizations.

In Taiwan, the number of deaths associated with the vaccine exceed the number of deaths associated with covid-19.  This is obviously disturbing news and needs to be looked at closer.  It may be the answer to your question.  https://medicaltrend.org/2021/10/10/taiwan-death-from-covid-19-vaccination-exceeds-death-from-covid-19/

 

Oh, America’s Frontline Doctors said it?

The same ones who sell telemedicine appointments for Ivermectin and sometimes take the money and run? The ones who list large groups of shoddy studies with no control groups and other fundamental errors to sell a false narrative and keep doing it even after being caught?

Well, I will treat this claim with all the seriousness it deserves.

[The Nehor]

1 hour ago, pogi said:

Are ADE's the new thing going around social media's campaign? 

Yes.

It is ironic they complain about basic changes in guidelines on mask wearing and social distancing and cleaning as proof the scientific establishment is wrong and indecisive while they have to rewrite their entire narrative every month or so with a new brand of pseudoscientific gobbledygook.

[The Nehor]

1 hour ago, Harry T. Clark said:

I'm glad you are for the truth.  You know mere disagreement doesn't equate with malicious intent, right? 

Yes but flagrant and repeated lying and deception does equate with malicious intent.

[The Nehor]

2 hours ago, Harry T. Clark said:

The studies I linked to don't talk about hospitalizations and my understanding is that the vaccinated are just as likely to be infected and transmit the disease as the unvaccinated.  The idea of the vaccines was to lessen symptoms only, not stop infection or transmission.  At this point, I don't think we know what will happen as it is too early to know.  ADE is a problem and has been in prior vaccine campaigns.  From the Atkinson article:

Wrong. All wrong.

2 hours ago, Harry T. Clark said:

Thank goodness the delta variant is less lethal while being more virulent. This could be a driver in the increased case numbers with less severe outcomes.  Even so, the UK health minister admitted that 40% of the hospitalizations there are among the vaccinated and that doesn't look good for the effectiveness of the vaccines.

[The Nehor]

Cases are skyrocketing in Russia.

There is a twisted irony to the whole thing. After Russian agencies and bots put a lot of effort into spreading Covid misinformation and anti-vaxxer talking points it looks like it backfired a bit and many of the Russian people now believe the misinformation and are refusing vaccination.

Falling for your own propaganda. Getting high on your own supply.

The AY4.2 variant of Delta is causing some concern. It is most prevalent in the UK but has reached the US and several other nations.

Some are calling it “Delta Plus” but that term has been used for several variants and is now pretty meaningless.

Edited October 22, 2021 by The Nehor

[Peacefully]

Good news!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/10/21/cdc-moderna-jj-booster-recommendation/

[Calm]

I am going to get boosters for my daughter and I as soon as I can schedule them and was wondering if there have been any studies showing preferred mix and match. 
 

I am guessing since moderna and Pfizer were the same type, that either of those would do better with a booster of JJ.  Is my guess wrong or just unsubstantiated?

[Calm]

On 10/21/2021 at 9:26 PM, Peacefully said:

Good news!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/10/21/cdc-moderna-jj-booster-recommendation/

Quote

The CDC plans to release guidance early next week with more detailed information about who might benefit from choosing one booster over another, as the panel requested. CDC advisers and agency officials are still working out whether to recommend that some people stick to their original vaccine if possible.

I wonder if this info is available elsewhere. 

[Tacenda]

Too personal.

Edited October 26, 2021 by Tacenda

[Calm]

10 minutes ago, Tacenda said:

Came home yesterday from vacation and my son called today and said he tested positive for covid. He'd had a high fever while on vacation with us. I sort of took care of him, his girlfriend stayed behind. He apparently got it from three coworkers that he just today found out about. So I'm wondering if my husband and I need to stay home and isolate for several days or does our vaccines count for something. I think one article I read said because we were vaccinated and don't have symptoms we wouldn't have to for the 10 day protocol.

CDC guidelines for the vaccinated:

• You should still get tested if you’ve had close contact with someone who has COVID-19 or if you have symptoms of COVID-19.
  • If you’ve had close contact with someone who has COVID-19, you should get tested 5-7 days after your exposure, even if you don’t have symptoms. You should also wear a mask indoors in public for 14 days following exposure or until your test result is negative.
  • If you have symptoms of COVID-19, you should get tested and stay home and away from others.
  • If your test result is positive, isolate at home for 10 days.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/fully-vaccinated.html?s_cid=11508:mask guidelines and vaccination:sem.ga:p:RG:GM:gen:PTN:FY21

[Hamba Tuhan]

12 minutes ago, Tacenda said:

So I'm wondering if my husband and I need to stay home and isolate for several days or does our vaccines count for something.

Guidelines if you live in Utah.

Read the entire page, but the following may answer your questions:

Quote

If you have had close contact with someone with COVID-19, you need to isolate yourself. Close contact means:

• You were within six feet of someone for a total of 15 minutes or more who has COVID-19.
• You cared for someone at home who is sick with COVID-19.
• You hugged or kissed the sick person.
• You shared plates, cups, or eating utensils with the sick person.
• The sick person sneezed, coughed, or got respiratory droplets on you.

Isolation: Stay Home and Monitor Your Health

To isolate yourself, you must:

• Stay home for 14 days after your last contact with a person who has COVID-19.
• Watch for:

• • fever (100.4◦F),
  • cough,
  • shortness of breath, or 
  • other symptoms of COVID-19.

• If possible, stay away from others, especially people who are at higher risk for getting very sick from COVID-19.

 

Edited October 26, 2021 by Hamba Tuhan

[Calm]

12 minutes ago, Tacenda said:

Too personal.

Tacenda, asking for advice on personal situations dealing with Covid is very appropriate for this thread. I started these for that reason, to help people make the personal decisions.