bsjkki Posted October 13, 2021 Posted October 13, 2021 And here we are. https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/dont-freak-out-catching-covid-after-you-are-vaccinated-improves-immunity/news-story/a65e560935dc5f4a271e9bcba226478e I found the headline a bit misleading compared to content. My main take away was get vaccinated because everyone is going to get covid eventually and it protects you against hospitalization and death and then boosts your overall immunity against future outbreaks. All true. I don’t think they are advocating for ‘ covid parties.’ 1
Raingirl Posted October 13, 2021 Posted October 13, 2021 6 hours ago, pogi said: Sorry to hear that. Was he vaccinated after the first infection? Yes, he was. He hasn’t been allowed to have the booster yet, though. He’s had a rough go of it lately. He had a heart attack in May of 2020 and was on life support and not expected to live. Then Covid in November and now Covid again. At least this time, the Covid is less severe. I think we can thank the vaccine for that. 3
Calm Posted October 15, 2021 Author Posted October 15, 2021 https://www.statnews.com/2021/10/12/a-primer-on-what-we-know-about-mixing-and-matching-covid-vaccines/ https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/mix-match-covid-vaccine-boosters-are-effective-nih-study-finds-rcna2974 Sorry, too tired to do more than links… 1
bsjkki Posted October 15, 2021 Posted October 15, 2021 I'm seeing a lot of tweets about deaths and vaccines. Was Delta incredibly more deadly than Alpha? Because we do have more deaths this year even though a substantial segment of the population is vaccinated. Some think that should have mitigated overall deaths in a positive direction but it has not.
Calm Posted October 15, 2021 Author Posted October 15, 2021 (edited) 2 hours ago, bsjkki said: I'm seeing a lot of tweets about deaths and vaccines. Was Delta incredibly more deadly than Alpha? Because we do have more deaths this year even though a substantial segment of the population is vaccinated. Some think that should have mitigated overall deaths in a positive direction but it has not. Do you mean all of 2020 compared to 2021 or something different? Using the Google New York Times chart for Covid 7 day average deaths…. If counting from January 1, 2021…. A good part of last year it was limited to a small part of the country. We didn’t get deaths at over 2000 a day till April. And then we had the drop of the surge, possibly due to lockdowns in the affected areas. Covid was more localized then, easier to be affected by lockdowns imo, but also Alpha was more affected by distancing measures and masks. And the vaccine didn’t really get going for a couple of months in 2021 when the worst surge of all was happening. We need to include the two weeks delay it takes to become effective after the vaccination dates. Looking at Our World in Data chart for total vaccinations in US, one dose was only at 20% of the population (with a high ‘specialized’ percentage in senior housing and medical personal rather than general community) by mid March (we are at 65% now), so 20% effective by end of March. I am seeing some days with a double digit 7 day average this summer while last summer it was never below 250. My guess is the deaths from January to mid March or so were so high, that even the lows this summer couldn’t lessen the lead enough. The worst this September is at 3400ish, while in January it was 5400. I don’t see how if you divide pre and post vaccinations even disregarding the more deadly Delta, how vaccinations haven’t moved deaths in a positive direction. We are in a surge, but much lower and shorter it appears than the one prior to vaccinations being widely offered. Maybe I don’t understand what is being argued? I think they should compare the last six months with the previous six months to see how vaccinations have affected death rates. Edited October 15, 2021 by Calm
bsjkki Posted October 15, 2021 Posted October 15, 2021 26 minutes ago, Calm said: Do you mean all of 2020 compared to 2021 or something different? Using the Google New York Times chart for Covid 7 day average deaths…. If counting from January 1, 2021…. A good part of last year it was limited to a small part of the country. We didn’t get deaths at over 2000 a day till April. And then we had the drop of the surge, possibly due to lockdowns in the affected areas. Covid was more localized then, easier to be affected by lockdowns imo, but also Alpha was more affected by distancing measures and masks. And the vaccine didn’t really get going for a couple of months in 2021 when the worst surge of all was happening. We need to include the two weeks delay it takes to become effective after the vaccination dates. Looking at Our World in Data chart for total vaccinations in US, one dose was only at 20% of the population (with a high ‘specialized’ percentage in senior housing and medical personal rather than general community) by mid March (we are at 65% now), so 20% effective by end of March. I am seeing some days with a double digit 7 day average this summer while last summer it was never below 250. My guess is the deaths from January to mid March or so were so high, that even the lows this summer couldn’t lessen the lead enough. The worst this September is at 3400ish, while in January it was 5400. I don’t see how if you divide pre and post vaccinations even disregarding the more deadly Delta, how vaccinations haven’t moved deaths in a positive direction. We are in a surge, but much lower and shorter it appears than the one prior to vaccinations being widely offered. Maybe I don’t understand what is being argued? I think they should compare the last six months with the previous six months to see how vaccinations have affected death rates. This could be why. I was looking for covid deaths by month. It could be overwhelming deaths in January, February lead to the higher deaths in 2021 than 2020. Because of seasonality, I think we would need to compare deaths by the same months in 2020 as 2021. Or, at least factor that in.
Calm Posted October 15, 2021 Author Posted October 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, bsjkki said: Because of seasonality, I think we would need to compare deaths by the same months in 2020 as 2021. Or, at least factor that in. Maybe starting mid 2020? When did it start showing up in every state in large numbers?
bsjkki Posted October 15, 2021 Posted October 15, 2021 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Calm said: Maybe starting mid 2020? When did it start showing up in every state in large numbers? Found numbers from cdc. It’s not looking great. The numbers are worse this year for the same months. Looking at August and September. Summer was better. We have a 68 percent fully vaxxed rate for those 18 and up 66 percent for 12 and up. I can only conclude Delta is that much worse because these numbers are going the wrong direction. You would think the vaccine plus natural immunity would not produce these numbers. If it continues increasing December and January will be very, very bad. Edited October 15, 2021 by bsjkki
bsjkki Posted October 16, 2021 Posted October 16, 2021 Delta waves. 66% vaxxed in Colorado. Doesn’t bode well. 1
BlueDreams Posted October 16, 2021 Posted October 16, 2021 Don’t have time to say much or find the og article site. Number of children who’ve lost at least one parent/caregiver in the pandemic: https://apple.news/AQiU6udpBQhyiVP4ll7-1Hg 1
bsjkki Posted October 16, 2021 Posted October 16, 2021 I hope the recommendations catch up to this information. 3
The Nehor Posted October 16, 2021 Posted October 16, 2021 33 minutes ago, bsjkki said: I hope the recommendations catch up to this information. I would need longer term data before I would draw conclusions. The first dataset is 13 weeks after the second dose and the other is 4 weeks after. Is the increased response due to the spacing or the latest dose just being more recent? What is the longer spaced dosing after 13 weeks? 1
bsjkki Posted October 17, 2021 Posted October 17, 2021 https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10099209/FDA-advisory-committee-recommended-approval-J-J-vaccine.html 1
Hamba Tuhan Posted October 17, 2021 Posted October 17, 2021 9 hours ago, bsjkki said: I hope the recommendations catch up to this information. I wonder if this might help explain (some of) the apparent longevity of AstraZeneca? Dosing for that has always involved a minimum 12-week interval. Mine was actually 13 weeks. 1
Hamba Tuhan Posted October 17, 2021 Posted October 17, 2021 Destin Groff et al., 'Short-term and Long-term Rates of Postacute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 Infection: A Systematic Review', JAMA Network Open 4:10 (13 Oct. 2021). Quote In this systematic review, more than half of COVID-19 survivors experienced PASC 6 months after recovery. The most common PASC involved functional mobility impairments, pulmonary abnormalities, and mental health disorders ... PASC frequencies were stratified and reported by 1 month (short-term), 2 to 5 months (intermediate-term), and 6 months (long-term) from COVID-19 diagnosis or hospital discharge ... The results suggest that rates of PASC are indeed common; 5 of 10 survivors of COVID-19 developed a broad array of pulmonary and extrapulmonary clinical manifestations, including nervous system and neurocognitive disorders, mental health disorders, cardiovascular disorders, gastrointestinal disorders, skin disorders, and signs and symptoms related to poor general well-being, including malaise, fatigue, musculoskeletal pain, and reduced quality of life. Short- and long-term rates of PASC were similar, highlighting the potential for pathological sequelae long after exposure to the SARS-CoV-2 virus ... In addition to the life lost from acute COVID-19 illness, many individuals experience disability due to PASC, greatly exacerbating the disease burden. Such a burden is more than enough to overwhelm existing health care system capacities, particularly in resource-constrained settings. 1
strappinglad Posted October 17, 2021 Posted October 17, 2021 Seems that the apple cart has a loose wheel. What shall we do ? Increases in COVID-19 are unrelated to levels of vaccination across 68 countries and 2947 counties in the United States (nih.gov)
bsjkki Posted October 17, 2021 Posted October 17, 2021 https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10101289/Fauci-says-J-J-shot-double-dose-start.html 1
BlueDreams Posted October 17, 2021 Posted October 17, 2021 On 10/15/2021 at 2:45 AM, bsjkki said: Found numbers from cdc. It’s not looking great. The numbers are worse this year for the same months. Looking at August and September. Summer was better. We have a 68 percent fully vaxxed rate for those 18 and up 66 percent for 12 and up. I can only conclude Delta is that much worse because these numbers are going the wrong direction. You would think the vaccine plus natural immunity would not produce these numbers. If it continues increasing December and January will be very, very bad. Seems like a solid conclusion. i just had a FB friend report her husband and FIL are both in the hospital with low O2 scores and covid pneumonia and something is off with her husband’s liver from it. She’s doing better than them but is still very sick with several littles at home. (I met her because we had the same midwife and had some enjoyable convos when learning some homebirth stuff). She’s never outright said whether she’s vaccinated, but stated a few things and fits a few demos that makes me think she hasn’t gotten the jabs (and likely others close to her). Her and her husband are near my age (early-mid 30’s). Which fits delta’s trend of being far more contagious and more likely to effect younger pops. I feel bad for them. The more stories i heard like this the more I see the string of flawed thoughts/info that led them into excessively heavy and painful consequences. With luv, BD 2
Hamba Tuhan Posted October 18, 2021 Posted October 18, 2021 16 hours ago, Hamba Tuhan said: Destin Groff et al., 'Short-term and Long-term Rates of Postacute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 Infection: A Systematic Review', JAMA Network Open 4:10 (13 Oct. 2021). Coincidentally, I have so far today seen four Facebook posts from American friends asking when they can expect the health impacts of Covid to finally clear up. The research I linked to earlier unfortunately suggests the answer may be 'never' ... 2
Calm Posted October 18, 2021 Author Posted October 18, 2021 7 hours ago, strappinglad said: Seems that the apple cart has a loose wheel. What shall we do ? Increases in COVID-19 are unrelated to levels of vaccination across 68 countries and 2947 counties in the United States (nih.gov) It would be unfortunate if infection rate is not dropped (I haven’t looked at the study yet, does it differentiate between those who have reached supposed heed immunity and those who haven’t?), but all the more reason to get vaccinated to avoid serious illness and death.
Hamba Tuhan Posted October 18, 2021 Posted October 18, 2021 (edited) 36 minutes ago, Calm said: It would be unfortunate if infection rate is not dropped (I haven’t looked at the study yet, does it differentiate between those who have reached supposed heed immunity and those who haven’t?), but all the more reason to get vaccinated to avoid serious illness and death. The answer to 'What shall we do?' is actually provided by the authors if one reads to the 'Interpretation' section of the piece: Quote The sole reliance on vaccination as a primary strategy to mitigate COVID-19 and its adverse consequences needs to be re-examined, especially considering the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant and the likelihood of future variants. Other pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions may need to be put in place alongside increasing vaccination rates. Such course correction, especially with regards to the policy narrative, becomes paramount with emerging scientific evidence on real world effectiveness of the vaccines ... In summary, even as efforts should be made to encourage populations to get vaccinated it should be done so with humility and respect. Stigmatizing populations can do more harm than good. Importantly, other non-pharmacological prevention efforts (e.g., the importance of basic public health hygiene with regards to maintaining safe distance or handwashing, promoting better frequent and cheaper forms of testing) needs to be renewed in order to strike the balance of learning to live with COVID-19 in the same manner we continue to live a 100 years later with various seasonal alterations of the 1918 Influenza virus. Edited October 18, 2021 by Hamba Tuhan 3
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