Co-vid 19: What Is and Isn't Known, Discussion and Debate

[Calm]

1 hour ago, webbles said:

Apparently Utah doesn't have as high of antibody spread as other places in the US.  Per https://www.ksl.com/article/46772985/utah-researchers-findings-show-most-residents-highly-susceptible-to-covid-19-infection

 

That is weird....maybe Pogi can explain if that means anything beyond it hasn’t spread as much as would have been thought from the numbers and therefore there are much higher numbers of people yet to be exposed than thought. Iow, we as a state are still in the beginning stages?

Quote

U. physicians and researchers released a public service announcement on YouTube on Wednesday encouraging Utahns to wear masks.

“Do it for your kids, do it for your partner, do it for your mother, do it for your friend’s mother, do it for your neighbor, do it for all of us,” Dr. Andy Pavia, chief of pediatric infectious disease at University of Utah Health, said. “If we want to beat this, everyone has to wear a mask.”

Data from the antibody study shows that infections remained low when citizens of Utah were asked to “stay safe, stay home,” but then surged when those restrictions gradually lifted.

 

Edited July 4, 2020 by Calm

[Tacenda]

3 hours ago, USU78 said:

I haven't seen my son since Valentine's Day.

😥

[Tacenda]

5 hours ago, Calm said:

Damn.  Just reported a worker at my mom's assisted living place is hospitalized with Covid.  Full quarantine back in effect.

I'm so sorry, I hope it doesn't spread. Thoughts and prayers, Calm.

[Calm]

27 minutes ago, Tacenda said:

I'm so sorry, I hope it doesn't spread. Thoughts and prayers, Calm.

Thanks, Tac. Mom is pretty healthy for her age and the one time she got sick with a bug, it was very minor. However, that might work against her here because she is in enough pain with arthritis, if she gets sick she wants to go...and if she doesn’t, chances are life will be much harder for her. And with her lower cognitive abilities, think of a child suffering and in constant pain. I so don’t want that to happen. 
 

Ach...I was prepared for this back when we first learned of the virus and it hitting the nursing homes up in the NW and how it was taking down NY, but three months of relative quiet here lulled my gut into false sense of security even though my brain knew it was highly unlikely her place would escape unscathed, so now I am on a hamster wheel about it. 
 

It is a very well run facility, so they may be able to nip it before it spreads.  Residents were not required to wear masks though some are (Mom just asked for some, I hadn’t offered because I don’t think she is aware enough to use them correctly and I was afraid her feeling awkward about them and uncomfortable would stop her going out to walk, but we will get some over now anyway in hopes they will be able to open up again in two weeks or so).  They had for about four weeks allowed residents out of their rooms with social distancing for exercise and some social stuff outside in tents and had only one at their dining table while eating, but I am guessing they didn’t break up encounters in hallways where people would have extended visits and the hallways are wide enough for two walkers, but they tend to lean into each other to listen.
 

 I hope they let us know how the resident got sick so I can reassure or instruct Mom to be more careful. She has a backdoor and was supposed to leave it closed for visitors, but refused to (they stayed outside and chatted through the door, it was supposed to be by using a phone but Mom wouldn’t let them no matter how many times I scolded her...I hate being Mom to my mom, I was a much more obedient kid to her than her to me, I think next time I will tell her it is only fair since I listened to her back then she listen to me now).  I think most of her visitors were careful. Or at least I told myself that as I couldn’t do anything about it besides ask them to wear masks and keep one’s distance. 

Edited July 4, 2020 by Calm

[Calm]

So it has been mentioned the rise in numbers for the younger crowd appears to be more due to partying than protesting if contact tracing in certain places is accurate. 
 

Here may be one reason why (more the attitude than the sheer idiocy of offering a prize), partying may be more than just partying (though if there is drinking and eating at parties, masks are coming off and if dancing etc, physical contact, so not sure how much more intention to get sick contributes).

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/02/us/alabama-coronavirus-parties-trnd/index.html?utm_source=fbCNN&utm_medium=social&utm_content=2020-07-02T12%3A15%3A05&utm_term=link&fbclid=IwAR3liQC1Zru4qAUOnzRg9xxs8rTGEQZoztRuaqzVVdYoSQSLxv-yVjArDF0

Quote

Some young people in Alabama are throwing Covid-19 parties, a disturbing competition where people who have coronavirus attend and the first person to get infected receives a payout, local officials said.

If I was a parent and heard this, I would see about finding videos of Covid patients in suffering, amputations, damaged lungs, brains slices showing dead areas, etc. so it seems less like playing Russian Roulette, life or death or whatever is attracting them and more like becoming disabled in their view. 

Edited July 4, 2020 by Calm

[Meadowchik]

My husband works abroad and for that reason normally lives abroad and comes here twice a month. Yet of course that hasn't worked out so well during the pandemic. This Wednesday, he was finally able to get back to us after 7 weeks! Because of the lockdown easing, we'll also be able to spend a month in France with him later, too. Crossing our fingers that our plans work out. We all need him and he needs us! 

As restrictions ease here, I am seeing more requests in stores that customers wear masks. I am more than happy to do that if this means more safety and mobility for all of us!

 

[BlueDreams]

Found this today while scoping my usual bews outlets: 

 

“ a model from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation shows that near-universal wearing of cloth or homemade masks could prevent between 17,742 and 28,030 deaths across the US before Oct. 1.” https://www.npr.org/2020/07/03/886905055/widespread-use-of-face-masks-could-save-tens-of-thousands-of-lives-models-projec

It also talked about what led to the disonnance and reluctance of many with face masks. Which I’m intrigued by because i have a number of relatives who are currently very verbal about their dislike of masks. I have either though who feel it goes against their rights and another chunk that feels they need certifiable proof that masks work and it should be their choice. Either end it often feels like an uphill battle to convince them that mask wearing in our circumstances is a public health response and needed. 
But on the brighter side i am seeing more face masks on at the loval grocery chain.

with luv,

BD 

 

Edited July 4, 2020 by BlueDreams

[USU78]

You mean these guys?

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/05/enough-already-with-the-ihme-covid-19-model/

[USU78]

Technical difficulties.

Edited July 4, 2020 by USU78

[BlueDreams]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/04/health/coronavirus-death-rate.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

 

another good one on the difficulty of calculating the death rate for covid-19

[Calm]

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/coronavirus/what-activities-put-you-at-risk-during-the-covid-19-pandemic/2400486/
 

Edited July 5, 2020 by Calm

[Calm]

[bluebell]

On 7/5/2020 at 5:55 AM, Calm said:

I’m surprised they rated going to a salon or barber a 7 when they showed that if both people involved wear masks the risk is practically zero.

Is this list based on not wearing a mask?

[pogi]

2 hours ago, bluebell said:

I’m surprised they rated going to a salon or barber a 7 when they showed that if both people involved wear masks the risk is practically zero.

Is this list based on not wearing a mask?

Just curious, who said the risk is practically zero?  Masks help reduce risk, but I don't think it approaches zero, especially with extended close physical contact like happens in a salon or barber shop. 

Edited July 6, 2020 by pogi

[bluebell]

1 minute ago, pogi said:

Just curious, who said the risk is practically zero?  Masks help reduce risk, but it doesn't reduce it near zero, especially with extended close physical contact like happens in salon or barber shop. 

I was thinking of this story of the infected stylists who saw over 140 clients while they were infected without spreading it because everyone was wearing masks.  

[pogi]

15 minutes ago, bluebell said:

I was thinking of this story of the infected stylists who saw over 140 clients while they were infected without spreading it because everyone was wearing masks.  

Thanks.  

While that does highlight the importance of mask wearing, I hope it doesn't give people a false assurance that wearing a mask will eliminate most risk - leading people to engage in higher risk activities.  Trusting in anecdotes can lead to false assurances.  There are plenty of other reasons that might explain why no one was infected.  We are learning that some people are much, much more infectious than others.  The fact that she kept working suggests that she was likely asymptomatic.  Asymptomatic carriers are much less infectious than symptomatic carriers.  If she was an asymptomatic carrier and a low spreader, that could explain why no one was infected by wearing masks.  However, given the same scenario with a super-spreader, I guarantee many, many people would have been infected.  

Another variable to consider is hygiene practices of barber/stylist. If they are removing their masks and itching their noses between clients, and not washing their hands before each client, then they are much more likely to spread disease.  What we do know is that extended close contact, especially where there is physical contact, is the highest risk for spreading disease.  I know first hand that masks do not reduce that risk near zero.  

Edited July 6, 2020 by pogi

[Danzo]

As long as long as we are talking about anecdotes, there was a care facility in our town where almost all of the patients were infected, ten died and most of the staff got infected (my next door neighbor's parents worked there and they got it).

All of the staff were wearing masks and face shields, but it didn't really help

[pogi]

10 minutes ago, Danzo said:

As long as long as we are talking about anecdotes, there was a care facility in our town where almost all of the patients were infected, ten died and most of the staff got infected (my next door neighbor's parents worked there and they got it).

All of the staff were wearing masks and face shields, but it didn't really help

Ya, when you have extended close physical contact with residents in a care facility, masks simply are not going to cut it (unless they all had properly fitted N95 masks and other PPE).  They are better than nothing, but no one should be surprised when people start getting infected.  

[Calm]

9 hours ago, bluebell said:

I’m surprised they rated going to a salon or barber a 7 when they showed that if both people involved wear masks the risk is practically zero.

Is this list based on not wearing a mask?

It says in the small print to assume they are following standard protocol, but if they are collecting this through contact tracing I am guessing they can’t know for sure. Someone may say they were wearing a mask when they weren’t or imagining washing hands and surfaces more than they were or that it was 6 feet when it was really 4. 
 

If they are making an assessment due to what risk factors are present, as in the more risk factors are present generally speaking, the higher the risk, there may not be enough cluster outbreak events yet to see an over all trend or single incidents of the same type (100 random hairdressers with one client each yields 10 infections, I doubt you can even get that kind of data).
 

I personally don’t think you should take it as in stone and allow yourself moderate risk no matter what the conditions are, but take it as a general rule of thumb. Larger gatherings or more intimate ones and longer rather than shorter are where risks go up. If you have to do higher risk activities, be extra careful with hygiene protocols. 

Edited July 7, 2020 by Calm

[Bob Crockett]

7 hours ago, pogi said:

Thanks.  

While that does highlight the importance of mask wearing, I hope it doesn't give people a false assurance that wearing a mask will eliminate most risk - leading people to engage in higher risk activities. 

Well, anecdotally speaking I've taken my motorcycle over 140 mph now that I wear a mask, and have taken up surfing in shark infested waters.

[provoman]

10 hours ago, pogi said:

Just curious, who said the risk is practically zero?  Masks help reduce risk, but I don't think it approaches zero, especially with extended close physical contact like happens in a salon or barber shop. 

oh my goodness...I have been called uneducated, troll, unhelpful, and spreading misinformation because I challenged claims that mask mean you do not have worry about breathing in someones infection, and separately that I challenged a claim that infected people cannot put the virus in the air if they are wearing a regular ol cloth mask.  The people calling me a troll etc, are die-hard mask wearing proponents. 

[pogi]

12 hours ago, provoman said:

oh my goodness...I have been called uneducated, troll, unhelpful, and spreading misinformation because I challenged claims that mask mean you do not have worry about breathing in someones infection, and separately that I challenged a claim that infected people cannot put the virus in the air if they are wearing a regular ol cloth mask.  The people calling me a troll etc, are die-hard mask wearing proponents. 

Sigh.  

Ridiculousness runs deep both ways. 

Edited July 7, 2020 by pogi

[smac97]

Hmm:

Quote

Is The Pandemic Coming To An End At Last?
I & I Editorial Board
July 7, 2020

...{I}t’s not actually us saying this. It’s the Centers for Disease Control, which reported that the death rate has fallen so far it’s now roughly equal to the threshold for even qualifying as an epidemic, which isn’t as severe as a pandemic.

“Based on death certificate data, the percentage of (total U.S.) deaths attributed to pneumonia, influenza or COVID-19 (PIC) decreased from 9% during week 25 to 5.9% during week 26,” the CDC noted, adding that this was the 10th-straight week of declining deaths.

While the “percentage is currently at the epidemic threshold,” additional data in coming weeks could change that, says the CDC.

As a piece on the informative Just The News web site explains, “That threshold for (deaths per week for) pneumonia, influenza and COVID-19 fluctuates slightly depending on the time of year, ranging from around 7% at the height of flu season to around 5% during less virulent months.”

So the decline to 5.9% is truly great news, if the trend holds. We’ve reported this decline in COVID-19’s raw death rate before, by the way. The current CDC data compare favorably to the 5.7% average rate for the final 13 weeks of 2019.
...
As far as coronavirus is concerned, it’s true that total cases continue to rise. But that’s a function of vastly increased testing, not of surging actual cases, as we’ve noted before.

It’s likely that the only real increase in cases in recent weeks has come from the largely unprotected masses of youngish people taking part in the George Floyd demonstrations, which began in late May and continued through June and into July.

This can be seen in the fact that new cases lean more heavily now toward the young, rather than the old, a strong sign that the youth-dominated demonstrations boosted infections.

The article has some political commentary (which is hard to avoid these days, as COVID has become extremely politicized).  Per Calm's request, I am only quoting non-political elements of the article, and ask that any responses be restricted to those elements.

Thanks,

-Smac

[Calm]

Thanks, Smac.  Appreciate that. 

[pogi]

2 hours ago, smac97 said:

Hmm:

The article has some political commentary (which is hard to avoid these days, as COVID has become extremely politicized).  Per Calm's request, I am only quoting non-political elements of the article, and ask that any responses be restricted to those elements.

Thanks,

-Smac

There are several possible explenations for the decline in deaths as Covid cases rise sharply:

1) The virus has mutated to a less deadly strain.

2) Medical treatment has improved with the use of Steroids and other therapeutic interventions that have evolved and shown to be helpful.

3) New infections are mostly young healthy people, whereas a much higher percentage of older people were infected before.

4) This is an example of "lead time bias"

Quote

According to Murray, “lead time bias is probably contributing to the lag between cases and deaths.”

The Entomologist says that essentially, lots of early testing is finding people in the beginning stages of the disease whereas before the only people who were tested were already very sick and in the later stages of the illness.

Murray explains:

"If you have heard of lead time bias, it’s probably in the context of screening programs, like mammograms, colonoscopies, etc. The idea is that when you start actively screening for cancers, you end up diagnosing people *before* they would normally have been diagnosed. That extra (lead) time will make it seem like people who get screened live longer than people who don’t get screened, even if screening changes nothing about how their cancer progresses.

What does this have to do with #COVID19? Well, we switched from only testing people who had really serious severe symptoms to testing a much wider group of people with milder or even no symptoms. Many of the new cases are much earlier in their disease process.

Lead time bias tells us that we can expect to see a longer delay between detection & death because we are detecting people earlier in the disease process. This does not mean people are surviving longer! That’s the sneaky lead time bias talking!!

When you start identifying people at earlier stages of a disease, it looks like they survive longer (or have the disease longer) compared to when you identify based on severe symptoms."

https://heavy.com/news/2020/07/covid-19-deaths-down-wont-last/

Lets pray that the correct answer is #1, with some added help from #2.  But I suspect it is more likely a combination of #3 and #4, with maybe a little bit of #2 coming into play.  

There is going to be a significant lag between young people getting infected and spreading it to their parents/grandparents/older co-workers, etc. (up to 2 weeks after contact), then once these older people become infected there is around a week lag time to hospitalization and another week or two lag to death.  We might not see the corresponding spike in deaths from these spikes for another 5 weeks +.  We are already seeing spikes in hospitalizations however.  When you have the lag of spread from young to old coupled with lead time bias, it can easily explain the numbers we see today.  

This is no time to let down our guard.  Way too premature.  If after a couple months the death rate stays stable and low, with no spike, then we have reason to celebrate.  Cross your fingers.  In the mean time, lets not let call out "victory!" quite yet.  We shouldn't let wishful thinking guide our behavior/policies, we need to let this play out a little bit more. 

 

 

Edited July 7, 2020 by pogi