Co-vid 19: What Is and Isn't Known, Discussion and Debate

[Calm]

7 hours ago, pogi said:

Also, younger people still account for a large percentage of hospitalizations, even if they are not dying from it.

People primarily talk about deaths, but there is a heck of a lot of long term damage being done. Is this being followed anywhere yet and if so, by age?  
 

I think there is a general perception that the young walk away from the disease unscathed once it is past, but I am wondering if that is accurate.  If someone in their 20’s or 30’s ends up with a permanent disability, that will have a massive effect on their life and for those concerned about economy, on both health care costs (driving up insurance rates if numbers of these individuals is significant) as well as their life long productivity. 

[Calm]

Quote

Most children do not get severe COVID-19, a study has confirmed. A European study published Thursday in The Lancet Child and Adolescent Health found that fewer than 1 percent of children with the virus die from it and very few need intensive care. Researchers based results on 585 children age 3 days to 18 years old from 21 countries. “Our data, originating from a large number of specialist centers across Europe, show that COVID-19 is usually a mild disease in children, including infants,” concluded the authors

This is from my Everyday Health alert I get with my med tracking.  Not sure if there is a way to link to it. 
 

The actual study phrases it quite differently imo though.

Quote

COVID-19 is generally a mild disease in children, including infants. However, a small proportion develop severe disease requiring ICU admission and prolonged ventilation, although fatal outcome is overall rare. The data also reflect the current uncertainties regarding specific treatment options, highlighting that additional data on antiviral and immunomodulatory drugs are urgently needed.

Details:

Quote

582 individuals with PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection were included, with a median age of 5·0 years (IQR 0·5–12·0) and a sex ratio of 1·15 males per female. 145 (25%) had pre-existing medical conditions. 363 (62%) individuals were admitted to hospital. 48 (8%) individuals required ICU admission, 25 (4%) mechanical ventilation (median duration 7 days, IQR 2–11, range 1–34), 19 (3%) inotropic support, and one (<1%) extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. Significant risk factors for requiring ICU admission in multivariable analyses were being younger than 1 month (odds ratio 5·06, 95% CI 1·72–14·87; p=0·0035), male sex (2·12, 1·06–4·21; p=0·033), pre-existing medical conditions (3·27, 1·67–6·42; p=0·0015), and presence of lower respiratory tract infection signs or symptoms at presentation (10·46, 5·16–21·23; p<0·0001). The most frequently used drug with antiviral activity was hydroxychloroquine (40 [7%] patients), followed by remdesivir (17 [3%] patients), lopinavir–ritonavir (six [1%] patients), and oseltamivir (three [1%] patients). Immunomodulatory medication used included corticosteroids (22 [4%] patients), intravenous immunoglobulin (seven [1%] patients), tocilizumab (four [1%] patients), anakinra (three [1%] patients), and siltuximab (one [<1%] patient). Four children died (case-fatality rate 0·69%, 95% CI 0·20–1·82); at study end, the remaining 578 were alive and only 25 (4%) were still symptomatic or requiring respiratory support.

I don’t call 8% as “very few” (ICU admission).  Think I am not going to be relying on Everyday Health Summaries any more. 
 

So now what about 18-24 and 24-45 for long term effects. 

Edited June 28, 2020 by Calm

[webbles]

4 minutes ago, Calm said:

This is from my Everyday Health alert I get with my med tracking.  Not sure if there is a way to link to it. 
 

The actual study phrases it quite differently imo though.

 

So now what about 18-24 and 24-45 for long term effects. 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642(20)30177-2/fulltext is a link to the actual study

[Calm]

7 minutes ago, webbles said:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642(20)30177-2/fulltext is a link to the actual study

Thank you for that.  The app gives me access but no obvious link, just started using it a week ago and haven’t figured out the details yet. 
 

If 8% are admitted into ICU, I am still wondering about long term damage. Seems like many have preexisting issues (25% infected, don’t know what this means though:   “(3·27, 1·67–6·42; p=0·0015)“), so it might not make a huge difference for them...or it might move them into severe cases...something we will have to wait to learn, I am guessing given 4% were still on ventilators and many consequences might not show up till older. 

Edited June 28, 2020 by Calm

[rodheadlee]

One thing about these charts is they show total cases not current cases. Is there a chart for current cases? How many of the total cases have recovered?

[webbles]

19 minutes ago, rodheadlee said:

One thing about these charts is they show total cases not current cases. Is there a chart for current cases? How many of the total cases have recovered?

Utah has a "Estimated Recovered" chart.  You can see it near the middle at https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/.  It calculates the recovered amount by assuming any case that didn't end in a death has recovered after 21 days.  So, I guess you could use that same idea when looking at the charts of other states (if they don't have their own recovered chart).  Subtract the total of cases that are more than 21 days old.

[smac97]

A few articles I've come across.

1. Reason.com:

Quote

CDC Antibody Studies Confirm Huge Gap Between COVID-19 Infections and Known Cases
The difference implies that the virus is much less deadly than it looks, but it also makes contact tracing a daunting challenge.
JACOB SULLUM | 6.28.2020 6:35 PM

Newly published antibody test results from half a dozen parts of the country confirm that COVID-19 infections in the United States far outnumber confirmed cases. The ratio of estimated infections to known cases in these studies, which the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported on Friday, range from 6 to 1 in Connecticut as of early May to 24 to 1 in Missouri as of late April.

These results confirm something we already knew: The COVID-19 infection fatality rate—deaths as a share of all infections—is much lower than the crude case fatality rate—deaths as a share of known cases. That is bound to be true when testing is limited and a virus typically produces mild or no symptoms. At the same time, the CDC's antibody studies imply that efforts to control the epidemic through testing, isolation, quarantine, and contact tracing will not be very effective, since they reach only a small percentage of virus carriers.

The entire article seems to be worth a read.  Lots of data.  Lots of tough issues.

2. CBS News:

Quote

Flawed COVID-19 antibody tests shipped without FDA review
BY SHARYN ALFONSI
JUNE 28, 2020 / 7:02 PM / CBS NEWS
...
Back in March, the Food and Drug Administration took the unprecedented step of allowing COVID antibody tests to flood the market without review. The tests were billed as a critical tool to assess where the virus had spread and who might have immunity. But in the government's rush to get more people tested quickly, it may have missed the mark. Over the course of a three-month investigation, 60 Minutes has learned that federal officials knew many of the antibody tests were seriously flawed but continued to allow them to be sold anyway. Now, as Coronavirus surges in parts of the country, that government failure is complicating efforts to know the reach of the Coronavirus.

Oi.

3. WBIR:

Quote

Tennessee changed how it's reporting COVID-19 data. Here's what you need to know.
The Tennessee Department of Health is now reporting "probable" and "confirmed" cases of the coronavirus.
Author: Grace King (10News)
Published: 12:04 AM EDT June 13, 2020
Updated: 6:47 PM EDT June 27, 2020

On June 12, Tennessee's number of COVID-19 cases rose sharply once again. It jumped to 21,126 cases — up nearly 800 from the day before.

But the state department of health is now including "probable" cases in that total number, as defined by the Centers for Disease Control.

“We want to present a clear picture of the burden of COVID-19 on our state," said Tennessee Health Commissioner Dr. Lisa Piercey. "We want Tennesseans to understand the reason it may appear that we’ve had an increase in our cases and tests completed."

So a sudden increase in reported COVID cases could be attributed to a change in how they are counted, perhaps as opposed to being attributed to insufficient public adherence to social distancing and other guidelines.

4. Breaking911.com:

Quote

FBI: Beware Of These COVID-19 Coronavirus Antibody Testing Scams
June 28, 2020

The Federal Bureau of Investigation is warning the public about potential fraud schemes related to antibody tests for COVID-19.

Scammers are marketing fraudulent and/or unapproved COVID-19 antibody tests, potentially providing false results. In addition, fraudsters are seeking to obtain individuals’ personal information (names, dates of birth, Social Security numbers, etc.) and personal health information, including Medicare and/or private health insurance information, which can be used in future medical insurance or identity theft schemes.

In response to the vast number of COVID-19 cases, and in an effort to return to a normal economy as soon as possible, researchers have been encouraged to devise testing methods that can be quickly and easily deployed to test large numbers of individuals for COVID-19 antibodies. However, not all COVID-19 antibody tests have been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and their efficacy has not been determined.

The FBI warns the public to be aware of the following potential indicators of fraudulent activity:

• Claims of FDA approval for antibody testing that cannot be verified
• Advertisements for antibody testing through social media platforms, email, telephone calls, online, or from unsolicited/unknown sources
• Marketers offering “free” COVID-19 antibody tests or providing incentives for undergoing testing
• Individuals contacting you in person, phone, or email to tell you the government or government officials require you to take a COVID-19 antibody test
• Practitioners offering to perform antibody tests for cash

The FBI recommends:

• Checking the FDA’s website (fda.gov) for an updated list of approved antibody tests and testing companies
• Consulting your primary care physician before undergoing any at-home antibody tests
• Using a known laboratory approved by your health insurance company to provide the antibody testing
• Not sharing your personal or health information to anyone other than known and trusted medical professionals
• Checking your medical bills and insurance explanation of benefits (EOBs) for any suspicious claims and promptly reporting any errors to your health insurance provider
• Following guidance and recommendations from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and other trusted medical professionals

If you believe you have been the victim of a COVID-19 fraud, immediately report it to National Center for Disaster Fraud Hotline at (866) 720-5721

5. OC Register:

Quote

‘I refuse to bow to anybody’: Rural California defies Gov. Newsom’s order to wear masks
By AP MCCLATCHY | wordpress@medianewsgroup.com |
PUBLISHED: June 28, 2020 at 10:07 a.m. | UPDATED: June 28, 2020 at 10:09 a.m.

Perched behind the counter of his cramped memorabilia shop in downtown Placerville, co-owner Lorenzo Smith isn’t about to tell his customers they have to put on a mask.

It’s a matter of principle, he isn’t convinced it’s necessary, and he doesn’t particularly care that Gov. Gavin Newsom has ordered Californians to wear them.

“Most people up here do not like the governor,” said Smith, whose shop is called Hangtown Originals. “The deal is, you have no right to tell me I have to wear a mask. I’m an American. … I refuse to bow to anybody.”

Newsom issued his order June 18 in an effort to halt a recent statewide surge in COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations since he began relaxing restrictions and reopening the economy more than a month ago.

But Californians aren’t listening — not all of them, anyway. And there seems to be a distinct split between urban California and the rest of the state. In big cities like Sacramento, compliance appears to be fairly high. In suburbs and small towns, Newsom’s edict is more likely to be ignored.

Why the split? Some of it’s cultural; as a rule, rural Californians are more suspicious of what they see as government intrusion into their lives. Some it’s political; rural areas tend to vote Republican, and some residents are taking their lead from President Donald Trump, who has been disdainful of wearing masks. Polls show Democrats are more likely to wear masks than Republicans.

Even if the mandate about masks is an example of governmental overreach, I think we should wear them anyway.  The infringement on our civil liberties is pretty small.

Thanks,

-Smac

[Calm]

Looks like another possible problem for Covid on top of the problem itself:

https://kslnewsradio.com/1928165/lightning-sparks-fire-near-utah-lake-some-saratoga-springs-neighborhoods-evacuated/?

So far apparently minor damage. I got sick opening up our front door though. Didn’t notice it earlier due to house being closed up because of bad allergies. 
 

13,000 evacuated. 

Edited June 29, 2020 by Calm

[webbles]

49 minutes ago, smac97 said:

3. WBIR:

So a sudden increase in reported COVID cases could be attributed to a change in how they are counted, perhaps as opposed to being attributed to insufficient public adherence to social distancing and other guidelines.

 

Getting numbers that are comparable across time has been a problem for months.  I've used a bunch of different resources, ranging from the CDC, to individual states, and to news agencies, to try and see how the numbers are changing.  Each entity has slightly different numbers.  And that is because of where the data is coming from and how it is being reported.

With Tennessee, I checked their website (https://www.tn.gov/content/tn/health/cedep/ncov/data.html) and while it is true that they've switched the daily reported number to include both probable and confirmed, they are still reporting the number of confirmed vs probable in the details.  So it is still possible to track their change in confirmed numbers over time.

[Calm]

1 hour ago, smac97 said:

Even if the mandate about masks is an example of governmental overreach, I think we should wear them anyway.  The infringement on our civil liberties is pretty small.

Utahns for the most part in the area of Utah County I live are not wearing them. Even at doctors’ offices as soon as they are seen, even if they are still in the area they would be refused service if just coming in, I saw the majority removing masks.  At physical therapy, the only one wearing them is me at this point. Not even staff are wearing them. And half the people coming in are high risk. 
 

My husband says numbers are increasing, but still in a minority in the places he goes. 
 

It is depressing. I wish the governor would require them everywhere in public in any place not “green” (and only not there to avoid too much backlash).

———

In your view, what do you think should be done if masks are not worn in areas where they are optional?

Edited June 29, 2020 by Calm

[Calm]

Info on potential long term effects but no projected probable rates yet.

https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2020/06/02/covid-health-effects

[MustardSeed]

4 hours ago, smac97 said:

The infringement on our civil liberties is pretty small.

Less of an infringement than seat belts and street lights imo.  

[Calm]

45 minutes ago, MustardSeed said:

Less of an infringement than seat belts and street lights imo.  

It is all about what one is used to.  We didn't always wear seat belts as kids.  But in my early teens I was in a car accident where I likely would have gone through the windshield rather than just slamming my head against the dashboard...probably got whiplash and headaches for the rest of my life, but better than glass gouging out my face, etc.  Never drove without one again and never let my kids skip it.  Never actually needed it though in 50 years.  Doesn't change my behaviour for the next 50 or so.  Will be wearing seatbelt.  Feel naked without it.

Edited June 29, 2020 by Calm

[smac97]

16 hours ago, Calm said:

Utahns for the most part in the area of Utah County I live are not wearing them. Even at doctors’ offices as soon as they are seen, even if they are still in the area they would be refused service if just coming in, I saw the majority removing masks.  At physical therapy, the only one wearing them is me at this point. Not even staff are wearing them. And half the people coming in are high risk. 

My husband says numbers are increasing, but still in a minority in the places he goes. 
 

It is depressing. I wish the governor would require them everywhere in public in any place not “green” (and only not there to avoid too much backlash).

———

In your view, what do you think should be done if masks are not worn in areas where they are optional?

I want the government to operate within its authorized parameters.  I am not sure what those precise parameters are.

Thanks,

-Smac

[smac97]

A few more news items:

1. PJ Media:

Quote

Don't Be Fooled, Recent Coronavirus Data Suggests the Lockdowns Were a Colossal Mistake
BY MATT MARGOLIS JUN 29, 2020 12:10 PM EST

In various states across the nation, there’s been a noticeable trend of an increase in coronavirus cases. While this fact makes the headlines, the detail that seems to get overlooked is the fact that deaths have declined. Florida, Arizona, Texas, and California are among the states that have experienced spikes in cases but have maintained declining death rates or no spike in deaths.

 

How is this possible? Conventional wisdom suggests that a spike in cases should result in a spike in deaths, but that has not panned out. The protests and riots following George Floyd’s death have been going on for nearly a month now. Surely a spike in deaths should shave occurred by now. But so far, it hasn’t. 

Why not? 

According to Justin Hart, an information architect and data analyst from San Diego, “who” gets the virus is just as important as “how many” get the virus. “Right now the average age of infected cases has dropped nearly 20 years,” Hart told PJ Media. 

White House Coronavirus Task Force Member Dr. Anthony Fauci acknowledged this fact last week: “The overwhelming majority of people who are now getting infected are young people, like the people that you see in the clips in the paper or out in the crowds enjoying themselves.”  

Coronavirus data says risk is low for most Americans

Young people, possibly from the recent protests and riots, are likely behind the recent spike in cases, and that tells us a lot about why the data looks the way it does right now. According to the CDC’s current best estimate, the fatality rate of the coronavirus for symptomatic cases only are as follows:

• 0-49 years old: .05%
• 50-64 years old: .2%
• 65+ years old: 1.3%
• Overall ages: .4%

When you take into account that approximately 30% of coronavirus infections are asymptomatic, that drives the fatality rate down even further. “The risk of death for the general population of school and working age is typically in the range of a daily car ride to work,” notes Josh Ketter on Medium.

Professor Mark Woolhouse, an expert in infectious diseases in Scotland, led a study that determined current lockdown restrictions could be easily lifted as long the most vulnerable populations are left protected. According to Woolhouse, for the non-vulnerable population, the coronavirus is comparable to a “nasty flu.”

 

Lockdowns should have focused on protecting the vulnerable

What the data is clearly telling us is that the lockdowns were not implemented correctly. While there is a significant risk for the older, at-risk population, for those under 65 years of age, the economy could have been kept open. Schools didn’t have to close down, and “non-essential” businesses could have continued to serve the public, many of whom had as much a chance of dying from the coronavirus as they did dying on their daily commute, but the lockdowns kept everyone, including the young and healthy, at home. We could have worn masks out in public to help slow the spread and flatten the curve to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. Life could have remained relatively normal, and the economy didn’t have to suffer the way it did. 

“We knew early on that younger cohorts managed very well,” Hart explained to PJ Media. “We should have let that group thrive to keep the economy going while protecting the vulnerable.” 

Protecting the vulnerable is where many, particularly New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, went wrong. On March 25, Cuomo ordered nursing homes to accept patients regardless of their coronavirus status. Even back then, it was known that the elderly were more vulnerable to the virus, so having coronavirus patients in nursing homes allowed the virus to spread like wildfire. Cuomo tried to cover up his deadly mistake before ultimately rescinding the order on May 11. 

Nursing home patients represent a mere .46 percent of the United States population but account for approximately 43 percent of all coronavirus deaths. States should have protected them better from the beginning. Had they, we could have had a more strategic approach to the coronavirus lockdowns that allowed businesses and schools to stay open while quarantining the vulnerable.

 

The one-size-fits-all approach was a mistake

If school and working-age Americans understood that their risk of dying from the coronavirus was roughly the same as it is of dying during a daily car ride, do you think they’d want to continue the lockdowns? I don’t think so. Whether people realize it or not, every day they are making an assessment of risk as they go about their lives. It was true before the coronavirus, during it, and it will continue to be afterward. Is it really worth being afraid of living given the extremely low risk of fatality for a majority of the population? We should redirect resources to protecting the vulnerable and let the rest of us get this country working again.

2. DailyCaller.com:

Quote

Nearly Half Of All COVID-Related Deaths In The US Are Directly Tied To Nursing Homes: Report

More than 50,000 people have died from coronavirus-related illness at the country’s nursing homes for older adults, The New York Times reported Saturday.

The Times’s database collected data showing that coronavirus, or COVID-19, has infected more than 282,000 people at 12,000 facilities. Total deaths from such long-term facilities constitute roughly 43% of all COVID-19-related deaths, the paper reported.

Nursing homes constitute only 11% of all COVID-19 cases even though they account for nearly half of all deaths, data show.

3. Bloomberg:

Quote

Sweden’s Covid Expert Says ‘World Went Mad’ With Lockdowns
By Niclas Rolander
June 24, 2020, 4:41 AM MDT Updated on June 24, 2020, 5:59 AM MDT

The man behind Sweden’s controversial Covid-19 strategy has characterized lockdowns imposed across much of the globe as a form of “madness” that flies in the face of what is known about handling viral outbreaks.

Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s state epidemiologist, said he advised against such restrictions on movement because of the detrimental side effects they often entail.

“It was as if the world had gone mad, and everything we had discussed was forgotten,” Tegnell said in a podcast with Swedish Radio on Wednesday. “The cases became too many and the political pressure got too strong. And then Sweden stood there rather alone.”

Tegnell admits he misjudged the deadly potential of the coronavirus in its early stages, but has refused to consider abandoning his strategy. He says restricting movement to the radical extent seen across much of the globe can create other problems, including increased domestic abuse, loneliness and mass unemployment.

“In the same way that all drugs have side effects, measures against a pandemic also have negative effects,” he said. “At an authority like ours, which works with a broad spectrum of public health issues, it is natural to take these aspects into account.”

4. Don Surber:

Quote

Saturday, June 27, 2020
BLM spread covid-19

The Houston Chronicle reported, "Houston employers are reversing course as covid-19 cases spike in the region, wary of infecting employees or customers as Texas officials push ahead to re-open the economy."

The story also said, "Texas reported nearly 6,000 new cases Wednesday, the highest increase in a single day. Cases are spiking particularly in the Houston region, where 497 people have died from covid-19. Local authorities reported 1,831 new cases on Wednesday, bringing the regional total to more than 35,000, according to a Houston Chronicle analysis of local health data."

That was on Wednesday -- 15 days after another event in Houston: the funeral of George Floyd.

The New York Times reported at the time, "A public viewing in Houston drew nearly 6,400 people, including Gov. Greg Abbott, nurses fresh from work dressed in scrubs, new fathers holding babies and Mr. Floyd’s high school classmates. Following Tuesday’s service, he was to be buried at the Houston Memorial Gardens in a grave next to his mother, Larcenia Floyd, who died in 2018."

The story also said, "Most mourners and public officials attending the funeral wore face masks. But the corona virus pandemic at times seemed an afterthought. Among the hundreds of people inside the sanctuary and outside in the parking lot, people hugged, shook hands and passed funeral programs and business cards."

Two weeks later -- the apparent incubation time for the virus -- Houston had to shut down the ending of its shutdown.

5. Instapundit:

Quote

IS THE RISE IN COVID CASES A RESULT OF THE BLM PROTESTS? A friend in Texas writes:

So, your sort of sideways point that nobody is willing to finger the protests for the spike in cases is probably correct. I did some work on this about a week ago, but am not willing to write about it myself, being a corporate tool. Math: Median time from exposure to symptoms (if you get them) is 5-6 days. Median time from symptoms to hospitalization is 7 days. Point is, hospitalizations should start to increase ~12 days from a super spreader event. Well, that is exactly when cases started to spike here in Austin. I graphed the “Texas reopening” orders against the Austin MSA hospitalization graph. No effect, until exactly 12 days after the first big demonstration. Here you go.

Social distancing?  Yes.

Wearing masks?  Yes.

A lockdown that obliterated the economy, destroying trillions of dollars in wealth, tens of thousands of businesses, tens of millions of jobs, and causing untold numbers of forthcoming evictions, foreclosures, repossessions of cars, etc.?  Well....

Thanks,

-Smac

[Calm]

1 hour ago, smac97 said:

The protests and riots following George Floyd’s death have been going on for nearly a month now. Surely a spike in deaths should shave occurred by now. But so far, it hasn’t. 

As webbles pointed out, it is not quite into the deaths part of the cycle yet. Another week or two for that.  So drawing conclusions is a bit premature...plus as is pointed out it is younger people getting it at protests and such so lower death rate for them (I wonder if they tend to take longer to die as well when they do since they are healthier to start). 
 

Unfortunately this is only act 2 of the protest cycle (exposure at protests, infections manifesting in some).  The rest of the acts will include those infected spreading it to others. These secondary infections will show up in deaths starting a week or more later than deaths or any protestors if I have the timing right (though if more young are asymptomatic, then they are lower in likelihood of spreading it iirc from the data so that should drop total numbers as well).

Quote

According to Woolhouse, for the non-vulnerable population, the coronavirus is comparable to a “nasty flu.”

Any article that says this should automatically be tossed imo if using to present data. This disregards so much about COVID it would be laughable if it wasn’t so pathetic. 

When was the last time you heard of an amputation for a “nasty flu”?

Quote

Over the weekend, doctors had to amputate the right leg of well-known Broadway actor Nick Cordero because of blood clot complications.

The 41-year-old husband and father has been in a coma and is still in ICU. His wife explained that the complication was from COVID-19.

https://abc7chicago.com/coronavirus-symptoms-dermatology-rash-rashes/6119389/

https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/05/09/coronavirus-children-new-york-gov-cuomo-sandoval-sot-vpx-nr.cnn

Edited June 29, 2020 by Calm

[pogi]

3 hours ago, smac97 said:

A few more news items:

1. PJ Media:

2. DailyCaller.com:

3. Bloomberg:

4. Don Surber:

5. Instapundit:

Social distancing?  Yes.

Wearing masks?  Yes.

A lockdown that obliterated the economy, destroying trillions of dollars in wealth, tens of thousands of businesses, tens of millions of jobs, and causing untold numbers of forthcoming evictions, foreclosures, repossessions of cars, etc.?  Well....

Thanks,

-Smac

Lockdowns in New York were a "mistake"???

You know what they say about hindsight.  Knowing what we know now, I agree that we maybe could have managed this virus in Utah without closing down.  Maybe.  However, seeing trends after opening, I'm not certain of that.  Maybe if we were testing earlier and stronger we could have avoided big problems.  All we really knew about this virus when it started taking off in the US is that it was extremely contagious and could be extremely lethal - people were dying like mad in Italy and hospitals were being completely overrun....Then we saw it happen in New York too.  Within our own US of A!  On our soil!   They were pulling tens of thousands of medical volunteers from other states to assist in efforts. Around 900 people per day...PER DAY!...were dying. They had to bring in dozens of giant freezer trucks to hold the dead bodies.  They were working overtime filling trenches with dead bodies...in New York!  What if that happened in every state? DISASTER! Not just to life, but to economy.  TOTAL DISASTER!!!    Were we next?  We saw it almost completely obliterate entire long-term care facilities.  We had absolutely zero reason to believe that the same couldn't/wouldn't happen in every state. Governor Herbert was absolutely right to take preemptive measures in preventing such devastation in our state, with the information he had at hand, at the time. 

After opening, we are at the brink of overrunning our hospitals in several states, including Utah.  If trends don't change and people don't start taking accountability and acting responsibly, we may be headed toward more unwanted shutdowns.  If we can't keep this virus in check, I can assure you that our economy would be hurt even more severely in the long-run by not implementing short-term closures.  I think we both know that Governor Herbert is very much opposed to closing down the economy and that he would only take such drastic measures if he felt like the threat to health, life, and the long-term economy was immediately imminent and all other measures to contain the virus had failed. 

Edited June 29, 2020 by pogi

[Meadowchik]

1 hour ago, Calm said:

As webbles pointed out, it is not quite into the deaths part of the cycle yet. Another week or two for that.  So drawing conclusions is a bit premature...plus as is pointed out it is younger people getting it at protests and such so lower death rate for them (I wonder if they tend to take longer to die as well when they do since they are healthier to start). 
 

Unfortunately this is only act 2 of the protest cycle (exposure at protests, infections manifesting in some).  The rest of the acts will include those infected spreading it to others. These secondary infections will show up in deaths starting a week or more later than deaths or any protestors if I have the timing right (though if more young are asymptomatic, then they are lower in likelihood of spreading it iirc from the data so that should drop total numbers as well).

Any article that says this should automatically be tossed imo if using to present data. This disregards so much about COVID it would be laughable if it wasn’t so pathetic. 

When was the last time you heard of an amputation for a “nasty flu”?

https://abc7chicago.com/coronavirus-symptoms-dermatology-rash-rashes/6119389/

https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/05/09/coronavirus-children-new-york-gov-cuomo-sandoval-sot-vpx-nr.cnn

Also, protests are outdoors and many protestors have been wearing masks. 

[Calm]

32 minutes ago, Meadowchik said:

Also, protests are outdoors and many protestors have been wearing masks. 

But there have also been arrests and one account reported  them being kept in close quarters. 

[Meadowchik]

21 minutes ago, Calm said:

But there have also been arrests and one account reported  them being kept in close quarters. 

Good point!

[bluebell]

 

4 hours ago, Calm said:

When was the last time you heard of an amputation for a “nasty flu”?

https://abc7chicago.com/coronavirus-symptoms-dermatology-rash-rashes/6119389/

https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/05/09/coronavirus-children-new-york-gov-cuomo-sandoval-sot-vpx-nr.cnn

Your question made me wonder so I googled it and it looks like amputation has always been a possible complication of the flu, it’s just rare.

I wonder if the rates are higher with Covid than with influenza?

[Calm]

26 minutes ago, bluebell said:

 

Your question made me wonder so I googled it and it looks like amputation has always been a possible complication of the flu, it’s just rare.

I wonder if the rates are higher with Covid than with influenza?

Interesting, never heard of that.  Looks like in the case of flu it is caused by septic shock while with Covid it may be a result of the disease itself (inflammation or blood clots causing it), but someone with more medical background needs to explain as I am just guessing.

Quote

It’s worth noting that Herndon didn’t have his flu shot this year, per his wife, and he wasn’t able to start Tamiflu treatment before having to be rushed to the hospital. People points out sepsis (which can cause inflammation that leads to massive organ failure) occurs when “the immune system stops fighting the [‘invader’ germs] and begins to turn on itself.”

According to the Sepsis Alliance, researchers aren’t sure why sepsis occurs, and 40 percent of patients diagnosed with severe sepsis die. “Some people are at higher risk of developing sepsis because they are at higher risk of contracting an infection,” the organization states. “These include the very young, the very old, those with chronic illnesses, and those with a weakened or impaired immune system.”

https://www.thecut.com/2018/02/man-loses-feet-fingers-flu-septic-shock.html

https://www.nbc12.com/2020/01/24/year-old-petersburg-man-has-leg-amputated-after-severe-complications-flu/

Not finding anything yet on rates though...

https://www.sepsis.org/sepsisand/influenza/

Since sepsis can appear with any type of infection, I am guessing it may occur with Covid as well, so any Covid caused problems would be in addition to the usual sepsis issues of the flu, so rates would be higher.

https://www.sepsis.org/news/the-connection-between-covid-19-sepsis-and-sepsis-survivors/

Edited June 30, 2020 by Calm

[Calm]

3 hours ago, Meadowchik said:

Also, protests are outdoors and many protestors have been wearing masks. 

Not sure this has been posted yet, if I missed it:

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/06/24/883017035/what-contact-tracing-may-tell-about-cluster-spread-of-the-coronavirus?fbclid=IwAR3uagbrlgKvqypOu-tV0ty1v5CbnBR80RjnU_m-_cVKKuvXq1oXqLZxC4w

Quote

As the U.S. begins to open back up, coronavirus clusters — where multiple people contract COVID-19 at the same event or location — are popping up all over the country. And despite drawing massive crowds, protests against police violence and racial injustice in Washington state weren't among those clusters. 

"We did have a rally in Bellingham, which is our county seat, and there was also a protest, and we have not been able to connect a single case to that rally or to the protest, and what we're finding is in large part that's due to the use of masks," Erika Lautenbach, the director of the Whatcom County Health Department in Washington State, tells NPR's All Things Considered. "Almost everyone at the rally was wearing a mask, and it's really a testament to how effective masks are in preventing the spread of this disease."

For the clusters that have popped up, Lautenbach says the state has been using contact tracing to learn more about how they're contributing to the spread of the virus. For instance, it found that 14 cases were associated with a party of 100 to 150 people in early June. Subsequently, 15 more cases were associated with the original 14.

"So that one event spread to 29 people and 31 related employers," Lautenbach says. "Our challenge is to continue to trace as it moves through families, as it moves through workplaces and as it moves through social events as well."

But protests just aren't spreading the disease in the same way, Lautenbach says.

"We're finding that the social events and gatherings, these parties where people aren't wearing masks, are our primary source of infection," Lautenbach says. "And then the secondary source of infection is workplace settings. There were 31 related employers just associated with that one party because of the number of people that brought that to their workplace. So for us, for a community our size, that's a pretty massive spread."

And much of that spread, Lautenbach says, is affecting young people. 

"We have seen almost a near flip in the cases that we're experiencing," Lautenbach says. "So in April of this year, we were really struggling with long-term-care outbreaks. And so about 3 out of 4 people were over the age of 30 and really pretty heavily skewed to 60-plus. And by contrast, in June, we're seeing that now 2 out of 3 people that have contracted this disease are under 29."

That trend is mirrored in Florida, where the median age for COVID-19 patients dropped from 65 years old in March to 37 in late June. Dr. Cheryl Holder, an associate professor at Herbert Wertheim College of Medicine at Florida International University, says that's partly because young people are getting exposed more.

"It's really basically who gets exposed," Holder tells Morning Edition. "If you look who is staying in and following the guidelines, [it's] older people who are at risk. The older folks got [the message]; the young people, not so much."

The concern is that because these younger people are having more mild symptoms, they are going to work sick, they are visiting with their parents and grandparents sick and they're continuing to go to social events where they expose more and more people," Lautenbach says. "So when we think about that web of spread, that web just grows and grows and grows."

Guess there was too much 'kids aren't getting it' right at the beginning.

Edited June 30, 2020 by Calm

[Calm]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-effects-idUSKBN23X1BZ?fbclid=IwAR29otphIX_ECerp22_X3eOZck47FV3JQYjrthYZSM66WuMSP4_LiSoNVVk

Quote

“We thought this was only a respiratory virus. Turns out, it goes after the pancreas. It goes after the heart. It goes after the liver, the brain, the kidney and other organs. We didn’t appreciate that in the beginning,” said Dr. Eric Topol, a cardiologist and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in La Jolla, California. 

In addition to respiratory distress, patients with COVID-19 can experience blood clotting disorders that can lead to strokes, and extreme inflammation that attacks multiple organ systems. The virus can also cause neurological complications that range from headache, dizziness and loss of taste or smell to seizures and confusion.

And recovery can be slow, incomplete and costly, with a huge impact on quality of life. 

The broad and diverse manifestations of COVID-19 are somewhat unique, said Dr. Sadiya Khan, a cardiologist at Northwestern Medicine in Chicago. 

With influenza, people with underlying heart conditions are also at higher risk of complications, Khan said. What is surprising about this virus is the extent of the complications occurring outside the lungs. 

Khan believes there will be a huge healthcare expenditure and burden for individuals who have survived COVID-19.

Patients who were in the intensive care unit or on a ventilator for weeks will need to spend extensive time in rehab to regain mobility and strength. 

“It can take up to seven days for every one day that you’re hospitalized to recover that type of strength,” Khan said. “It’s harder the older you are, and you may never get back to the same level of function.” 

While much of the focus has been on the minority of patients who experience severe disease, doctors increasingly are looking to the needs of patients who were not sick enough to require hospitalization, but are still suffering months after first becoming infected. 

Studies are just getting underway to understand the long-term effects of infection, Jay Butler, deputy director of infectious diseases at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told reporters in a telephone briefing on Thursday.

 

Edited June 30, 2020 by Calm

[Tacenda]

33 minutes ago, Calm said:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-effects-idUSKBN23X1BZ?fbclid=IwAR29otphIX_ECerp22_X3eOZck47FV3JQYjrthYZSM66WuMSP4_LiSoNVVk

 

This is all so devastating, but knowing things are helpful to keep the anxiety low, but some states are not so low, so hopefully it helps people be more conscientious with their choices. 

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/16/816707182/map-tracking-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus-in-the-u-s?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=npr&utm_term=nprnews&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR2RVIlrkyJas59C8QEz3oFwu7tc6BZArC4zejtl65lmvaDXV3_JA2SVAMk

The link below shows comparisons in a color coded way. And compares the west or south etc. 

https://covidbystate.org/?fbclid=IwAR1_RRdtSoNau6F5dY01xJ1tHiVlPsyFaoAqwoHGLywyW1vHxd9voU7aB4w#/NV-ID-MT-WY-CO-UT

 

Edited June 30, 2020 by Tacenda