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Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, Calm said:

Let’s see if a screenshot works. 

 

image.png

Thanks!

You can see why we blew testing in the initial stages and partly why this has exploded across the US.  In the beginning, they would only test people who had a combination of 3 symptoms - fever, cough and shortness of breath.  That triad of symptoms was considered to be the main presentation of Covid in patients.  As you can see, shortness of Breath only manifests in 27% of positive cases, while fever only manifests in 36%.  To have a combination of ALL 3 symptoms is fairly rare and obviously much lower than 27%.  We were missing over 3/4 of all cases!  Testing was inaccessible, and they were missing the target by a long-shot. 

Edited by pogi
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37 minutes ago, pogi said:

Thanks!

You can see why we blew testing in the initial stages and partly why this has exploded across the US.  In the beginning, they would only test people who had a combination of 3 symptoms - fever, cough and shortness of breath.  That triad of symptoms was considered to be the main presentation of Covid in patients.  As you can see, shortness of Breath only manifests in 27% of positive cases, while fever only manifests in 36%.  To have a combination of ALL 3 symptoms is fairly rare and obviously much lower than 27%.  We were missing over 3/4 of all cases!  Testing was inaccessible, and they were missing the target by a long-shot. 

My son tested positive for covid and he had none of these three symptoms. His started with a sore throat, then joint/muscle pain, and then earaches. He never really had a cough, or fever. IMHO shortness of breath appears to be a rather advanced symptom. Waiting for it will miss many cases. That's for sure. I was allowed testing based solely on a sore throat one morning, and living with him in my house. That was in June though. Had I tried to get testing back in March, I'm sure nothing would have been available. I am unsure of all the reasons why covid has spread so rapidly in the U.S., but I am sure the most important is that covid is highly infectious, and if allowed can spread in an exponential fashion, and will overwhelm our health care system with elderly patients, and others in advanced stages.

Of relevance it does appear that those with O type blood are least likely to have respiratory failure, while those with A+ blood are at highest risk(about 46% increased risk), so those in that category need to be extra careful. This is based on a large meta-data study. It also seems that covid may be a disease primarily of the epithelial cells. This explains why those with arteriosclerosis seem to be disproportionately affected with strokes, heart attacks, etc.  Or it could be that epithelial cells are the just the first and most exposed cells - rendering them to be easily invaded. However, this does help explain why younger people tend to not be too affected by this disease - unless they have some arteriosclerosis.  

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12 minutes ago, RevTestament said:

This is based on a large meta-data study.

People should not panic as there are some potential problems.

Quote

The pragmatic aspects leading to the feasibility of this massive undertaking in a very short period of time during the extreme clinical circumstances of the pandemic imposed limitations that will be important to explore in follow-up studies. For example, to enable the recruitment of study participants, a bare minimum of clinical metadata was requested. For this reason, extensive genotype–phenotype elaboration of current findings could not be conducted, and adjustments for all potential sources of bias (e.g., underlying cardiovascular and metabolic factors relevant to Covid-19) could not be performed. Furthermore, we have limited information about the SARS-CoV-2 infection status in the control participants; this concern is mitigated by the fact that the presence of susceptible persons in the control group would only bias the tests toward the null. In addition, few restrictions were imposed during inclusion, which led to genotyped samples having to be excluded owing to differing ethnic groups (population outliers). Further exploration of current findings, both as to their usefulness in clinical risk profiling of patients with Covid-19 and toward a mechanistic understanding of the underlying pathophysiology, is warranted.

 

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9 minutes ago, Calm said:

People should not panic as there are some potential problems.

No, there is no reason for panic. Just being informed can help with necessary precautions. Respiratory failure is still fairly rare in this disease notwithstanding blood type. So the chance of dying from it is still low even if you are type A+. If you are elderly, have some arteriosclerosis and are type A+, I would be extra careful though. I would also change my diet to be more plant based, get rid of sugar in the diet, and exercise regularly with the goal of getting rid of arteriosclerosis. Diet is the number one cause of arteriosclerosis. 

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Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, RevTestament said:

My son tested positive for covid and he had none of these three symptoms. His started with a sore throat, then joint/muscle pain, and then earaches. He never really had a cough, or fever. IMHO shortness of breath appears to be a rather advanced symptom. Waiting for it will miss many cases. That's for sure. I was allowed testing based solely on a sore throat one morning, and living with him in my house. That was in June though. Had I tried to get testing back in March, I'm sure nothing would have been available. I am unsure of all the reasons why covid has spread so rapidly in the U.S., but I am sure the most important is that covid is highly infectious, and if allowed can spread in an exponential fashion, and will overwhelm our health care system with elderly patients, and others in advanced stages.

Of relevance it does appear that those with O type blood are least likely to have respiratory failure, while those with A+ blood are at highest risk(about 46% increased risk), so those in that category need to be extra careful. This is based on a large meta-data study. It also seems that covid may be a disease primarily of the epithelial cells. This explains why those with arteriosclerosis seem to be disproportionately affected with strokes, heart attacks, etc.  Or it could be that epithelial cells are the just the first and most exposed cells - rendering them to be easily invaded. However, this does help explain why younger people tend to not be too affected by this disease - unless they have some arteriosclerosis.  

Yep, it is very common to see patients without any of those 3 symptoms. 

I heard that about blood type.  That is interesting.  What kind of processes are going on there where blood type makes a difference?  There is still so much we don't understand about this disease.  It is not clear if arteriosclerosis is what is causing clotting and strokes in younger people.  The theory I have heard is that inflammation in the blood vessels are triggering the process of thrombosis - clotting.  For some reason it is mostly seen in larger blood vessels.  It is also not really clear why it is causing inflammation and targets the lungs of older people more than younger people (the primary reason for hospitalization and death).  Previous damage most likely plays a role though.  It certainly is not only targeting epithelial cells though.  One of the most common symptoms is loss of smell and taste, so it is invading the nervous system too and targets many different organs.    Inflammation seems to be the main concern though.  This is evidence by anti-inflammatory drugs significantly reducing mortality. Inflammation is the main cause of concern in children with Covid too, with the discovery of multisystem inflammatory syndrome. 

Edited by pogi

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21 minutes ago, Calm said:

People should not panic as there are some potential problems.

 

Thanks for sharing!  I haven't read-up too much on this. 

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, pogi said:

Thanks for sharing!  I haven't read-up too much on this. 

When it came out as a preview in March, I read there was a lot of concern due to testing limitations.  Hopefully easy enough to get tests now, that shouldn't be too much of a concern.

Though there might be a concern with those with O dropping reasonable safety precautions thinking not necessary.

Edited by Calm

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Just fyi. My wife and I did not get covid. We "banished" our positive son to the end bed room, and turned on the swamp cooler fan, and had him open his window. We pretty much only allowed him out of his room to use the bathroom which my wife wiped down every day after him. They both wore face masks. We brought his meals to him. We also all took daily doses of quercetin and zinc, although when my son started feeling better, he stopped until the sore throat kind of came back - so maybe the quercetin and zinc did help to slow covid. I also supplemented with lactoferrin to help boost "STING" response to potential infection. When covid invades a cell, it stops the STING response. It is a nasty bug for sure, but many viruses and cancers do this. Currently, the best defense to this disease is to be healthy.

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11 minutes ago, Calm said:

When it came out as a preview in March, I read there was a lot of concern due to testing limitations.  Hopefully easy enough to get tests now, that shouldn't be too much of a concern.

Though there might be a concern with those with O dropping reasonable safety precautions thinking not necessary.

The study indicated about a 30% decreased risk from respiratory failure due to covid for those with type O. I happen to be O-, but I still take precautions. I can still get this thing, and potentially have health complications. My son also is type O, and he got it. He is in his prime though. 

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Muscle aches are now considered to be one of the primary symptoms which is fun as after every heavy workout I have to wonder if this is just normal or if it feels different.

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18 minutes ago, The Nehor said:

Muscle aches are now considered to be one of the primary symptoms which is fun as after every heavy workout I have to wonder if this is just normal or if it feels different.

Not supplementing correctly Broseph...

Animal Pak, Animal Omega, and Animal Flex.  Put that into your google machine and thank me later.

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11 minutes ago, SteveO said:

Not supplementing correctly Broseph...

Animal Pak, Animal Omega, and Animal Flex.  Put that into your google machine and thank me later.

Tempting but I am not a true bodybuilder. I just like being in decent shape.

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16 minutes ago, SteveO said:

Not supplementing correctly Broseph...

Animal Pak, Animal Omega, and Animal Flex.  Put that into your google machine and thank me later.

Anything for humans?

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It is a sad time when I have to quote my news sources so that I don't get blasted for bad sources (i.e., if it is FOX News).

It seems to me, listening to the news (CNN, MSNBC, CBS, NBC, Washington Post, New York Times), that what once was a symptom is no longer, then added again. The masks don't help, the masks do help, the masks help prevent the spreading, the masks does not prevent spreading. the death rate is this (XXX,XXX.), no we meant it is this (YYY,YYY), it could be this (XYX,YXY). The number of infected is this (insert your favorite number), but it is really this (insert another number). Testing is being done with faulty testing equipment with a false-positive rate of 72%. Testing isn't being done with faulty equipment, but don't know why the false positive rate is still high...

WHO, CDC, My Neighbor Fred, all have changed their data and information, then changed it back, then keep on tweaking it.  I mean, I do not know who (no pun intended) to believe anymore. Man goes skydiving, forgets his parachute, but because a person flew in that same plane, 12 flights previously had an aunt, who thought she might have the Rona. The official skydiving accident is ruled as a Covid 19 death. 

I have to say I do like the title of this thread; Co-vid 19: What Is and Isn't Known, Discussion and Debate

No I don't, wait yes I do the title has grown on me, wait, I only like what is known part and wondering how we know what isn't known (hmmmm). This is my discussion part, I'm gonna try to stay out of the debate part.

Thanks

 

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4 minutes ago, Anijen said:

It is a sad time when I have to quote my news sources so that I don't get blasted for bad sources (i.e., if it is FOX News).

It seems to me, listening to the news (CNN, MSNBC, CBS, NBC, Washington Post, New York Times), that what once was a symptom is no longer, then added again. The masks don't help, the masks do help, the masks help prevent the spreading, the masks does not prevent spreading. the death rate is this (XXX,XXX.), no we meant it is this (YYY,YYY), it could be this (XYX,YXY). The number of infected is this (insert your favorite number), but it is really this (insert another number). Testing is being done with faulty testing equipment with a false-positive rate of 72%. Testing isn't being done with faulty equipment, but don't know why the false positive rate is still high...

WHO, CDC, My Neighbor Fred, all have changed their data and information, then changed it back, then keep on tweaking it.  I mean, I do not know who (no pun intended) to believe anymore. Man goes skydiving, forgets his parachute, but because a person flew in that same plane, 12 flights previously had an aunt, who thought she might have the Rona. The official skydiving accident is ruled as a Covid 19 death. 

I have to say I do like the title of this thread; Co-vid 19: What Is and Isn't Known, Discussion and Debate

No I don't, wait yes I do the title has grown on me, wait, I only like what is known part and wondering how we know what isn't known (hmmmm). This is my discussion part, I'm gonna try to stay out of the debate part.

Thanks

 

The dangers of a free press is that it can be irresponsible in its reporting. The internet has amplified the problem. The press has always been bad about science. I have posted this before:

phd051809s.gif

This is amplified in an environment of panic and was exacerbated by many governments not being consistent in their messaging. With a new disease many of the guidelines were guesswork in any case. One of the first large-scale quarantines in the US was to prevent the spread of a disease that is now known to have been spread almost entirely by mosquitos. Unsurprisingly to us the quarantine did not work very well.

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, Anijen said:

It is a sad time when I have to quote my news sources so that I don't get blasted for bad sources (i.e., if it is FOX News).

It seems to me, listening to the news (CNN, MSNBC, CBS, NBC, Washington Post, New York Times), that what once was a symptom is no longer, then added again. The masks don't help, the masks do help, the masks help prevent the spreading, the masks does not prevent spreading. the death rate is this (XXX,XXX.), no we meant it is this (YYY,YYY), it could be this (XYX,YXY). The number of infected is this (insert your favorite number), but it is really this (insert another number). Testing is being done with faulty testing equipment with a false-positive rate of 72%. Testing isn't being done with faulty equipment, but don't know why the false positive rate is still high...

WHO, CDC, My Neighbor Fred, all have changed their data and information, then changed it back, then keep on tweaking it.  I mean, I do not know who (no pun intended) to believe anymore. Man goes skydiving, forgets his parachute, but because a person flew in that same plane, 12 flights previously had an aunt, who thought she might have the Rona. The official skydiving accident is ruled as a Covid 19 death. 

I have to say I do like the title of this thread; Co-vid 19: What Is and Isn't Known, Discussion and Debate

No I don't, wait yes I do the title has grown on me, wait, I only like what is known part and wondering how we know what isn't known (hmmmm). This is my discussion part, I'm gonna try to stay out of the debate part.

Thanks

 

Well, your other option is to listen to politicians for scientific and medical advice :)

(I had posted a couple videos of Sarah Cooper imitating Trump, but deleted them as they may be perceived to be political in nature - I viewed them as more comical than political however).

Science is progressive.  The learning experience takes a while with novel viruses.  As far as numbers go, we have the same problem with every disease out there.   Covid is no exception.  Flu numbers are not finalized for years after the flu season has ended.  Even then, it is just an estimate. 

 

 

 

 

Edited by pogi

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23 minutes ago, The Nehor said:

Tempting but I am not a true bodybuilder. I just like being in decent shape.

They’re good for overall health, plus, you might want to up the gym game.  Women love the rippling muscles of a warrior...just sayin.

22 minutes ago, pogi said:

Anything for humans?

Just for those who beast it in the gym.

Seriously though, I think everyone should take their omega oils regardless of age.  We don’t get enough in our diets.

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5 minutes ago, pogi said:

Well, your other option is to listen to politicians for scientific and medical advice :)

What if I've been listening to the medical experts. I wouldn't trust the internet, news source, or heaven forbid a politician. Heck, I wouldn't even trust my neighbor Fred and he swears its the truth.

I try to use primary sources or sources that are quoting primary sources. So far, WHO, CDC, American Medical Association, Dr. Fauci, Expert Doctors, Fred my neighbor, and even these experts are constantly changing what they said a week ago, then changing again. 

Thanks

I'm dizzy  

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Posted (edited)
58 minutes ago, Anijen said:

What if I've been listening to the medical experts. I wouldn't trust the internet, news source, or heaven forbid a politician. Heck, I wouldn't even trust my neighbor Fred and he swears its the truth.

I try to use primary sources or sources that are quoting primary sources. So far, WHO, CDC, American Medical Association, Dr. Fauci, Expert Doctors, Fred my neighbor, and even these experts are constantly changing what they said a week ago, then changing again. 

Thanks

I'm dizzy  

I agree it can be dizzying.  Our safest bet is to follow what is most up-to-date and considered best practice.  That can evolve, but it is the best method we have at the time.  I don't think we should lose trust in science, we just need to understand that it takes time. 

I edited my last post to include this (I think it applies here): "Science is progressive.  The learning experience takes a while with novel...anything.  As far as numbers and death rates go, we have the same problem with every disease out there.   Covid is no exception.  Flu numbers are not finalized for years after the flu season has ended.  Even then, it is just an estimate.  It is a best estimate, and the best information we have to rely on."

As far as false positives go, even if the test itself was 100% accurate (they never are - for anything), there is always the problem of improper swabbing.  As far as masks go, at first they were not recommended because they do not prevent getting infected.  That has always stayed the same - they never thought it would prevent infection.  However, I think the recommendation to wear masks only later changed because they found it reduced transmission, not because it prevents infection in the individual wearing it. 

 

 

Edited by pogi
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Sorry if this will be boring , but I just did a little stat work on Canada's covid and selected 3 provinces to compare . 

Canada - population 37 million                              Ontario - pop. - 14.5 million                     Quebec - pop. - 8.4 million                             Alberta -pop - 4.4 million

                 tested 2.3 million                                                  tested - 1.1 million                                     tested - 545,000                                             tested - 333,000

                 cases as a % of tested - 4.3 %                       cases as a % of tested - 3.2%              cases as a % of tested - 10.0%                 cases as a % of tested - 2.3%

                recovered as a % of cases - 63%                  recovered as a % of cases -  85%        recovered as a % of cases - 42%             recovered as a % of cases - 91%

               deaths as a % of cases - 8.3%                       deaths as a % of cases - 7.2%                 deaths as a % of cases - 9.8%               deaths as a % of cases  - 2% 

Note the  majority of the population of Canada is found within 150 miles of the US border and is also found in cities with about 1 million people

Also , the majority of deaths come from senior's /nursing homes

Alberta did have 2 outbreaks of over 1000 cases from just 2 meat packing plants.

( actual numbers can be found on line , percentages are rounded off as I saw fit. ) 

My question is, given the fairly large numbers , why be significant differences? I'm sure someone has already done a similar comparison in US States. Any links would be nice. 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, strappinglad said:

My question is, given the fairly large numbers , why be significant differences? I'm sure someone has already done a similar comparison in US States. Any links would be nice. 

 

My guess would be who they are testing.  Less numbers may mean they are testing only highly likely candidates rather than all possible candidates or just anyone who asks.

These are two months out of date, so may not apply now.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/covid-19-testing-variations-1.5520812

https://ipolitics.ca/2020/04/14/why-quebec-is-at-the-centre-of-canadas-covid-19-epidemic/

Edited by Calm

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22 minutes ago, strappinglad said:

Sorry if this will be boring , but I just did a little stat work on Canada's covid and selected 3 provinces to compare . 

Canada - population 37 million                              Ontario - pop. - 14.5 million                     Quebec - pop. - 8.4 million                             Alberta -pop - 4.4 million

                 tested 2.3 million                                                  tested - 1.1 million                                     tested - 545,000                                             tested - 333,000

                 cases as a % of tested - 4.3 %                       cases as a % of tested - 3.2%              cases as a % of tested - 10.0%                 cases as a % of tested - 2.3%

                recovered as a % of cases - 63%                  recovered as a % of cases -  85%        recovered as a % of cases - 42%             recovered as a % of cases - 91%

               deaths as a % of cases - 8.3%                       deaths as a % of cases - 7.2%                 deaths as a % of cases - 9.8%               deaths as a % of cases  - 2% 

 

My question is, given the fairly large numbers , why be significant differences? I'm sure someone has already done a similar comparison in US States. Any links would be nice.

The numbers can vary for many different reasons. 

"Cases as a % of tested" usually indicates higher transmission in that area.  Quebec seems to have highest transmission and is spreading the fastest right now.  

"Recovered as a % of cases" could be a lot of different factors including data entry.  It could easily be a case of investigators not closing out cases in a timely manner.  If they keep a case open, and haven't had time to follow up on a patient, it will show that they have not yet recovered, even if they are fully recovered.   Alberta has lower rate of spread and therefore investigators have more time to follow up on patients, and thus their numbers show higher recovery rates.  It could be something as simple as data entry problems like that. 

"Death as a % of cases" is usually explained by population types in a specific area.  Higher populations of elderly, diabetics, and other comorbid conditions will have higher mortality rates in those areas.   It looks like Quebec is getting hit the hardest in every way. 

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Posted (edited)

Quebec isolated their elderly in care facilities apparently because they were worried about overwhelming their hospitals.  If you read the second link, what resulted sounds worse than what happened in NY.  That is going to throw off their cumulative numbers even if they correct their practices, I am guessing.

Quote

And what we’re seeing isn’t pretty. Two staff for 137 elderly residents, infection spreading like wildfire, patients left for days in their own filth, corpses found in their beds days after death. Thirty one suspected pandemic deaths in one suburban Montreal care home.

Meanwhile, in the province’s hospitals, the situation is relatively stable. Supplies of personal protective equipment (PPE) remain sufficient and hospitalizations and ICU admissions appear manageable, thanks to the efforts of public health authorities and tireless hospital workers. François Legault’s Quebec government has taken full credit for this careful planning in its daily public briefings. Talk has even turned to slowly relaxing some social distancing measures.

Yet it’s becoming increasingly clear that the province’s preparations for COVID-19 had a major and deadly blind-spot: the welfare of Quebec’s institutionalized senior citizens. Fearing a situation in which hospitals would be overwhelmed, as in Italy and Spain, Quebec focused on freeing up hospital and ICU capacity, and in some cases preventatively transferred seniors out of hospitals into care facilities. At the same time, it established recommendations to those care facilities restricting the transfer of residents back to hospitals should they fall ill.

 

Edited by Calm

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Calm's second link above is eye opening and heart rending . It should be noted that Canada has universal health care , but each individual province is responsible for the administration thereof and a portion of the funding. 

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Posted (edited)

So one of the websleuthers (where I go to-read up on the Daybell case) is Australian and they mentioned they had to go back into lockdown. Made me wonder how New Zealand is doing. They have had three new cases due to Kiwis returning home from other countries. They go into “managed isolation” for two weeks.  So likely won’t spread, but they are doing contact tracking to be sure. 

Edited by Calm

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