Co-vid 19: What Is and Isn't Known, Discussion and Debate

[Calm]

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I am making significant sacrifices for this community, working nearly everyday all-day, including right now on a Saturday (occasional break here and there to unwind here) trying to contain this virus and bring normalcy back to our society. It's getting to the point that we can't keep up anymore.  If all the people who try to minimize this get their way (and it seems to be that they are winning), our hospitals are going to be overwhelmed in a matter of weeks.  We just hit a record high yesterday.

And I for one am extraordinarily grateful you are sacrificing your spare time to post here to give use real time, real experience info and hope it doesn't get too frustrating with all the focus on work related topics and so you decide to take a real break, like watching K-Dramas like I do.  I did watch some anime a few days ago for variety!

We just went up four confirmed cases in one day in my small town (up to 26 cases now...probably ten at least active), so I am thinking our relative 'isolation' where there would be weeks between a new case may be past given over doubled our numbers of the past three months in past three weeks and neighbouring towns are going up 10-20 or more a day.  We will still stay low numbers I am guessing due to our demographic.

Edited June 27, 2020 by Calm

[Tacenda]

3 hours ago, smac97 said:

 Again, I am not staking out of position. I am posting data that I come across. I recognize that the virus constitutes a substantial threat to the health and welfare of our societie. However, I think it's fair to question and even challenge some of the governmental edicts that have been issued in relation to it. Our economy has been decimated. It will take years and years to recover from what we've done to it. I question how much of that was actually necessary.

In the coming months we will see an avalanche I'm foreclosures.   The ramifications will be pretty terrible. The loss of jobs has been terrible. The reprit cushions will be felt for years and years. I am concerned about our civil liberties being prominently curtailed by  politicians who now may feel they have carte Blanche to do whatever they want under the guise of public help.

 Then we have inconsistent and contradictory statements from medical professionals. We have politicized input from politicians and apparently from some health care professionals that privilidge rioters and looters going about doing whatever they want, while a group of 20 Jews is not allowed to congregate in New York City.

 These are some legitimate points of concern and discussion and debate. Let's stop trying to stifle people by scolding them  Or suggesting that they are indifferent to the health and welfare of others.

Well that's because people don't want to wear masks and make it all political, instead of doing what New Zealand and made it about loving others.

[smac97]

2 hours ago, pogi said:

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To clarify, I am not staking out a position that disputes the seriousness of the epidemic.

Can you please clarify then the point of the graph if it wasn't to minimize the seriousness of the pandemic? 

For the third time, I am posting data that I come across.

Again, I understood that to be the purpose of this post.  From the OP: " am starting a thread that questions which arise from a thread or elsewhere can be discussed.  I am opened to anything Covid being discussed..."

2 hours ago, pogi said:

I have no problem with people questioning governmental edicts. 

I'm complying with the OP.  I'm not going off topic.  I'm posting links to information.  I'm not saying I agree with or endorse the information.  I'm not saying it's 100% accurate.  I'm not saying it represents my thoughts on this subject.

2 hours ago, pogi said:

I doubt anyone thinks there haven't been violations of civil liberties and governmental missteps.  We will likely disagree on where and how, but it is fair to raise those points when we see them. 

Sounds good.

2 hours ago, pogi said:

What REALLY bothers me however, is when people attempt to downplay the pandemic or minimize the threat in an effort to justify their position and grievances with the government.  

Again, I am not staking out a position that disputes the seriousness of the epidemic.  

2 hours ago, pogi said:

By minimizing this pandemic, they are undermining the efforts and sacrifices I make everyday in fighting this virus. 

I'm trying to contextualize the pandemic.

2 hours ago, pogi said:

I am making significant sacrifices for this community, working nearly everyday all-day, including right now on a Saturday (occasional break here and there to unwind here) trying to contain this virus and bring normalcy back to our society. It's getting to the point that we can't keep up anymore.  If all the people who try to minimize this get their way (and it seems to be that they are winning), our hospitals are going to be overwhelmed in a matter of weeks.  We just hit a record high yesterday. 

I am sorry to hear about your fatigue, and I very much respect and appreciate your efforts.

2 hours ago, pogi said:

I am the one seeing the effects of that in our community.  I am speaking directly with the people effected.  It is not pretty.  

Some of us are seeing other effects.  The number of jobs lost is staggering.  The amount of money lost by individuals, families and small business owners is vast.  The number of foreclosures, bankruptcies and evictions will be, I fear, extreme.

2 hours ago, pogi said:

When our hospitals get to that level (and they will if this rate continues), that will only lead to more economic problems, and even more concerning - deaths (and not just from Covid, but from people who can't get treated for other things because the hospitals are full).  How is that going to help our economy!?

By all means, we should be taking COVID seriously.  But the problem is that politicians have been playing politics with COVID.  So have many media "elites."  Unfortunately, so have some healthcare professionals:

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To be sure, some doctors have taken more cautious stances, out of concern that mass gatherings could contribute to new spikes of COVID-19 cases. “It makes me cringe on a number of levels,” Dr. Katie Passaretti, a North Carolina-based infectious disease doctor, told NBC News in May. “It’s a setup for further spread of COVID-19. It’s heartbreaking.”

 

Trevor Bedford, a virology researcher at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, speculated on Twitter that each day of protests could lead to between 1,500 and 3,000 additional coronavirus infections across the country, assuming about 600,000 people protest nationwide each day.

“The harms of systemic racism are real and utterly pernicious,” Bedford wrote. “The hope is that the protests may lead to lasting reform. It is a cruel twist that the US’s inability to control the epidemic has made it dangerous to protest entrenched police brutality.”

These risks are real, but to many doctors, they’re worth it. Physicians have joined protests in cities across the country, and an open letter signed by 1,200 health professionals says protests should not be shut down over fears of COVID-19 transmission. The letter calls for a harm-reduction approach to gathering, encouraging protesters and police officers to wear masks and maintain social distancing. It also urges police to stop using crowd-control tactics that could contribute to viral transmission, like tear gas (which prompts coughing) or mass arrests (which force people to spend long periods of time in cramped conditions).

“We support [racial-justice protests] as vital to the national public health and to the threatened health specifically of Black people in the United States. We can show that support by facilitating safest protesting practices without detracting from demonstrators’ ability to gather and demand change,” the letter reads. “This should not be confused with a permissive stance on all gatherings, particularly protests against stay-home orders.”
...
Researchers are also showing their support virtually. Many scientists are using the hashtag #ShutDownSTEM on June 10 to signify that they are temporarily pausing their work out of solidarity with the Black Lives Matter movement.

Boy, nothing says "I care about the health and welfare of human beings" like stopping work on medical research as a massive virtue signal.

And most importantly:

Thanks,

-Smac

[rodheadlee]

8 hours ago, pogi said:

So you are opposed to all the sloganeering the Church and other organizations you support put out?

 You will find opposing voices in any field.  Public health professionals are no longer credible?  Do you somehow pretend that this group speaks for all public health professionals?  First of all, just who are these people?  It sounds like the list is not just public health professionals, but also includes "community stake holders".  Hmmmm, those aren't public health professionals.  It seems you can't verify that 1,300 public health professionals signed a letter, can you?  I wonder just how many public health professionals really signed that letter and just who are they and what positions they hold?  It is meaningless as is. 

 Anthony Fauci, the top government official on infectious diseases, warned Monday that protests in opposition to governors' stay-at-home orders meant to slow the spread of the coronavirus will "backfire"...

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/493647-fauci-warns-protests-against-against-stay-at-home-orders-will

 

Fauci - being in such large crowds, chanting, and the chaos that has come out from some of the demonstrations are setting up dangerous conditions to spread COVID-19

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/jun/5/dr-anthony-fauci-warns-perfect-set-spread-coronavi/

 

U.S. health experts, officials warn protests may add to virus spread

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-minneapolis-police-protests-coronavir-idUSKBN2383HD

 

Public Health Officials Worry The Coronavirus Might Spread Among Protestors

https://www.npr.org/2020/06/01/867256453/public-health-officials-worry-the-coronavirus-might-spread-among-protestors

 

The problem is the MSM is blaming it on the president not the protesters.

[pogi]

2 hours ago, smac97 said:

For the third time, I am posting data that I come across.

The more you speak, the more you make it almost impossible for me to believe that this was simply an unbiased data dump.  Everything you post here is driven by messaging.  

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Some of us are seeing other effects.  The number of jobs lost is staggering.  The amount of money lost by individuals, families and small business owners is vast.  The number of foreclosures, bankruptcies and evictions will be, I fear, extreme.

By all means, we should be taking COVID seriously.  But the problem is that politicians have been playing politics with COVID.  So have many media "elites."  Unfortunately, so have some healthcare professionals:

 

Do you think I don't see and am not intensely aware of those economic effects?  I hear the economic hardship everyday in the voices of my patients who desperately need to work to pay their mortgage but have to be placed on isolation for around 2 weeks.  It breaks my heart.  I do my best to guide them to any available community resources.  I have friends and family that have been devastated by the economic downturn.  We have all taken a hit, and will continue to do so.  This virus is heartless. I do not for a second believe that these good Governors from both sides of the isle were playing politics with the shut-downs.  I am disgusted by this virus being used as a political tool (and don't pretend for a second that it is one sided). 

What I am also disgusted by is ignorant cartoons aimed at undermining public health efforts in controlling this virus and thus PROTECTING OUR ECONOMY and avoiding further shut-downs.

Believe it or not, I am right there with you in the middle of all 3 positions.  My problem is that you claim to take this virus seriously, but don't seem to want to understand it.  If we seek to cause distrust in public health officials, and second guess the seriousness of the virus by comparing it to the flu, or cause others to question face masks, etc. then we are only going to hurt our economy in the long run.  If you want to truly help the economy (since that is what you seem to be worried about the most), stop undermining public health efforts by comparing this to the flu etc.  That is NOT taking this seriously.  That will NOT help our economy.

Edited June 28, 2020 by pogi

[pogi]

8 hours ago, smac97 said:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html

I must have missed this response when I asked you to point to a comparable flu season.  Can you please explain before I jump to conclusions again?

[pogi]

1 hour ago, rodheadlee said:

The problem is the MSM is blaming it on the president not the protesters.

First of all, I don't claim to defend what all media says.  Nor do I think they are a conglomerate of one voice. I think the media can hurt public health efforts as much as anything.

They're blaming what on the president though?

 

[smac97]

1 hour ago, pogi said:

The more you speak, the more you make it almost impossible for me to believe that this was simply an unbiased data dump.  

Right.  Why should you believe me when I am telling you my motives, when you can rely on your sheer speculation and mindreading instead?

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Everything you post here is driven by messaging.

I don't know what this means.

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Do you think I don't see and am not intensely aware of those economic effects?  

Well, I won't ignore your explanation for your own thoughts and motives.  I will let you speak for yourself rather than impute motives onto you.  Will that help?

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I hear it and see the economic hardship everyday from the patients I work with needing to work to pay their mortgage but have to be placed on isolation for around 2 weeks.  It breaks my heart.  We have all taken a hit, and will continue to do so.  I do not for a second believe that these good Governors from both sides of the isle were playing politics with the shut-downs.  

First, there are a lot more politicians involved than just governors.

Second, I think there is a broad mix.  Certainly a lot of good intentions.  But also a lot of hysteria.  And a lot of arbitrariness.  And a lot of abuse of power.  And some pretty disconcerting mistreatment of religious groups.  See, e.g., here:

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A federal court judge on Friday issued a preliminary injunction against attendance restrictions imposed on religious gatherings in New York state.

Judge Gary Sharpe’s order affects the limits that both governor Andrew Cuomo and New York City mayor Bill de Blasio placed upon religious gatherings in light of the coronavirus pandemic. Both officials had issued orders and guidance limiting in-person religious worship to ten or fewer persons. A coalition of Catholic and Jewish leaders filed suit, claiming that the limitations prevent them from fulfilling essential requirements and duties of their faiths.

The judge’s decision noted that the limitations for religious gatherings make little sense in light of the limitations imposed on various secular gatherings. For example, under Phase Two restrictions, restaurants and other businesses are allowed to operate at 50% of maximum capacity, and the governor has recently allowed outdoor graduation ceremonies of up to 150 persons to take place; meanwhile the prohibitions limiting religious gatherings remained in place.

The order enjoins the governor and mayor from enforcing any gathering limits upon the plaintiffs more restrictive than the limits in place for “Phase 2 industries” as long as worshipers also “follow social distancing requirements,” and also prevents enforcement of any limitations to outdoor gatherings, again as subject to social distancing.

More here:

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A federal district court judge today issued a preliminary injunction against Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Mayor Bill de Blasio to stop them from limiting participation in outdoor religious gatherings as a response to the pandemic. The judge, Gary Sharpe{}, emphasized that, notwithstanding the Wuhan coronavirus, Cuomo and de Blasio permitted, and indeed seemed to bless, outdoor protests following the killing of George Floyd.

Judge Sharpe explained that the regulation limiting participation in outdoor religious services results in the “curtailment of fundamental rights without compelling justification.” The purported compelling justification is preventing the spread of the coronavirus. However, as the attorneys from the Thomas More Foundation who filed the lawsuit noted, this justification “went right out the window as soon as [Gov. Cuomo] and Mayor de Blasio saw a mass protest movement they favored taking to the streets by the thousands.” At that point, “the limit on ‘mass gatherings’ was no longer necessary to ‘save lives.’”

Judge Sharpe saw the same problem. He quoted this statement by Cuomo:

Protest. Just be smart about it. With this virus, you can do many things now as long as you’re smart about it, right? You can reopen, you can go into a store and you can do a lot of things, just be smart.

Yet, the number of people allowed by New York to worship together outdoors was sharply limited, no matter how “smartly” the religiously observant were prepared to proceed. Allowing political protests, no matter the size, while limiting religious worship was obvious discrimination against one set of First Amendment rights.

Judge Sharpe went on to say:

Governor Cuomo and Mayor de Blasio could have just as easily discouraged protests, short of condemning their message, in the name of public health and exercised discretion to suspend enforcement for public safety reasons instead of encouraging what they knew was a flagrant disregard of the outdoor limits and social distancing rules.

They could have also been silent. But by acting as they did, Governor Cuomo and Mayor de Blasio sent a clear message that mass protests are deserving of preferential treatment.

I’m not sure that silence, or even non-enforcement, would have been sufficient to avoid the discrimination against religion worship resulting from an order expressly severely limiting gatherings for the purpose of worship. But Cuomo and de Blasio ... made these questions irrelevant, and made it easy for the judge to shoot them down.

UPDATE: Judge Sharpe’s opinion is here. In addition to his ruling on outdoor religious events, the judge also enjoined New York from enforcing its rule limiting indoor religious services to 25 percent capacity. He noted that on its face, the 25 percent rule applies only to houses of worship. No other secular entity, save for those that remain closed in their entirety until Phase 4 or beyond, is limited to only 25 percent capacity.

Yet, entities allowed to operate at 50 percent capacity are not justifiably different from house of worship. the judge found. He cited offices, retail stores that are not inside of shopping malls, salons, and restaurants.

I am deeply concerned about the treatment of religious groups in all of this.  I can't even call it "arbitrary."  The treatment described above specifically singled out religious gatherings for more onerous government intrusion and restrictions.

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I am disgusted by this virus being used as a political tool (and don't pretend for a second that it is one sided). 

So am I.

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What I am also disgusted by is ignorant cartoons aimed at undermining public health efforts in controlling this virus and thus PROTECTING OUR ECONOMY and avoiding further shut-downs.

Believe it or not, I am right there with you in the middle of all 3 positions. 

Then quit hectoring me.  Please.  And quit presuming to tell me what my motives are.  

-Smac

Edited June 28, 2020 by smac97

[Tacenda]

46 minutes ago, pogi said:

The more you speak, the more you make it almost impossible for me to believe that this was simply an unbiased data dump.  Everything you post here is driven by messaging.  

Do you think I don't see and am not intensely aware of those economic effects?  I hear the economic hardship everyday in the voices of my patients who desperately need to work to pay their mortgage but have to be placed on isolation for around 2 weeks.  It breaks my heart.  I do my best to guide them to any available community resources.  We have all taken a hit, and will continue to do so.  This virus is heartless. I do not for a second believe that these good Governors from both sides of the isle were playing politics with the shut-downs.  I am disgusted by this virus being used as a political tool (and don't pretend for a second that it is one sided). 

What I am also disgusted by is ignorant cartoons aimed at undermining public health efforts in controlling this virus and thus PROTECTING OUR ECONOMY and avoiding further shut-downs.

Believe it or not, I am right there with you in the middle of all 3 positions.  My problem is that you claim to take this virus seriously, but don't seem to want to understand it.  If we seek to cause distrust in public health officials, and second guess the seriousness of the virus by comparing it to the flu, or cause others to question face masks, etc. then we are only going to hurt our economy in the long run.  If you want to truly help the economy (since that is what you seem to be worried about the most), stop undermining public health efforts by comparing this to the flu etc.  That is NOT taking this seriously.  That will NOT help our economy.

Exactly, I don't get it! I don't get why so many wanted to be so reckless, thinking it's taking their freedom away. Well, now we have to live with the consequence. They are the ones that don't care about our freedoms, IMO. We can stay "open" if we wear masks, IMO.

[smac97]

48 minutes ago, pogi said:

Quote

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html

I must have missed this response when I asked you to point to a comparable flu season.  Can you please explain before I jump to conclusions again?

For the fourth or fifth time: I am posting COVID-related information I am coming across.  That's what the OP asked for.  That doesn't mean I necessarily agree with or endorse all of it.  

As for the flu, I haven't compared COVID to it, so I don't feel obligated to point you to "a comparable flu season."  Contrary to your increasingly presumptuous and obnoxious mindreading: "I'm not staking out a position. I am posting data I came across. I thought that's the purpose of this thread."

Again: "I am not staking out a position that disputes the seriousness of the epidemic."

In looking back in this thread, I see that Calm misattributed the following to me: "This would pretty much make the case that the 'it’s like a really bad flu' argument was correct after all."  I never said that.  It's from a blog post I cross-posted here that was editorializing on COVID.  And I copied and pasted it while I was on my phone, while sitting in my car, while waiting for a family member.  

And again: I am posting COVID-related information I am coming across.  That's what the OP asked for.  That doesn't mean I agree with it, or endorse it.  

Tell you what: I'll let you tell us what you think, and I won't presume to dictate to you what your real thoughts or motives are.  And I'll ask you to reciprocate that effort.  Sound good?

-Smac

Edited June 28, 2020 by smac97

[rodheadlee]

1 hour ago, pogi said:

First of all, I don't claim to defend what all media says.  Nor do I think they are a conglomerate of one voice. I think the media can hurt public health efforts as much as anything.

They're blaming what on the president though?

 

The current spike in cases. 

[smac97]

I would be interested in feedback on this article.  I am posting it here because I would like to understand varying perspectives on COVID.

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Where are the deaths?
The drum beat to halt the reopenings gets louder by the day. It should be resisted
Heather Mac Donald

The coronavirus doomsayers could not even wait until the fall for the apocalyptic announcements of the dreaded second wave. Because the red states recklessly loosened their lockdowns, we are now told, the US is seeing a dangerous spike in coronavirus cases. ‘EXPERTS SKETCH GLOOMY PICTURE OF VIRUS SPREAD: FAUCI TELLS OF “DISTURBING” WAVE, WITH A VACCINE MONTHS AWAY,’ read the front-page lead headline in the New York Times on Wednesday. ‘VIRUS SPREAD AKIN TO “FOREST FIRE”’ read another front page headline in the Los Angeles Times on Monday, quoting Michael Osterholm, one of the media’s favorite public health experts. Osterholm had told NBC’s Meet the Press: ‘I’m actually of the mind right now — I think this is more like a forest fire. I don’t think that this is going to slow down.’

The ‘this’ is an uptick in daily new cases from 19,002 on June 9 to 38,386 on June 24. The high to date in new daily cases was on April 24 — 39,072. Since April 24, the daily case count started declining, then began rising again after around June 9. What virtually every fear-mongering story on America’s allegedly precarious situation leaves out, however, is the steadily dropping daily death numbers — from a high of 2,693 on April 21 to 808 on June 24. That April high was driven by New York City and its environs; those New York death numbers have declined, but they have not been replaced by deaths in the rest of the country. This should be good news. Instead, it is no news.

Is the bolded sentence above accurate?

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The New York Times put three reporters on a full-page article on Texas, published June 25 under the headline ‘AS NEW CASES SOAR, THE GOVERNOR FACES FALLOUT FROM A RUSH TO REOPEN.’ The story never mentioned coronavirus deaths. Texas’s daily death count has bounced around since early May without a sharp rise — a high of 63 new deaths on May 21, 42 on June 24. Arizona, another state facing media contempt, finally beat its earlier high of 67 deaths on May 8 with 79 deaths on June 24. Between those two dates, however, the curve was steady. The Arizona mortalities are concentrated on Indian reservations and to a lesser extent around the Mexican border.

In May, Georgia was the main target of expert contempt for its allegedly premature reopening. Since then, the media have gone silent, due to the state’s truly discouraging downward daily death toll from a high of 119 on April 7, long before the reopenings, to 10 on June 24.

The writer of this article is fairly critical of media attention/neglect.  My question is whether her figures are accurate.  

These remarks are likely to elicit controversy:

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There are no crises in hospital capacity anywhere in the country. Nursing homes, meat-packing plants, and prisons remain the main sources of new infections. Half the states are seeing cases decline or hold steady. Case counts are affected by more testing; the positive infection rate captured by testing is declining. The current caseload is younger, which is a good thing. The more people who have been infected and who recover, the more herd immunity is created. Meanwhile, daily deaths from heart disease and cancer — about 3,400 a day combined — go ignored in the press.

Pogi, I'd like to hear what you have to say about the above.

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But the drum beat to halt the still far too tentative reopenings gets louder by the day. It should be resisted. The lockdowns were a mistake the first time around; to reimpose them would be disastrous for any remaining hope of restoring our economy. The damage that has been done to people’s livelihoods and future prosperity will continue to outweigh the damage done by the coronavirus. The only vaccine against poverty and resulting despair is a robust economy. 

These remarks are a bit more subjective.  But I don't think there is sufficient attention being paid to the ramifications of our response to COVID, particularly as pertaining to jobs and the economy.

I am a real estate attorney.  I work for a law firm that does a lot of foreclosures.  I've been in this area of law for a decade now.  I started in 2010, when there was a huge increase in foreclosure-related litigation which occurred because of the subprime mortgage crisis.  Through much governmental, business and individual misconduct and foolishness, tons of people chose to speculate in the housing market, or else undertook far more house-related debt than they could realistically afford.  These causes, subprime lending and rampant real estate speculation, created a huge mess.

At present, foreclosures are nearly at a standstill nationwide.  The overall moratorium may continue for two more months, but that would put us just before the November elections, so there's a good chance the moratorium will be pushed to the end of the year.  But whether this year or next, the dam will break.  And when it does, the impact will be brutal.

-Smac

Edited June 28, 2020 by smac97

[webbles]

1 hour ago, smac97 said:

I would be interested in feedback on this article.  I am posting it here because I would like to understand varying perspectives on COVID.

Is the bolded sentence above accurate?

The graph that article is showing is from https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA  I think the data is correct.  The only problem is that deaths is a lagging indicator.  It can take up to two weeks for deaths to occur.  In that time, the disease could have double the number of cases and two weeks later, there will be even more deaths.  So the people who are "fear-mongering" (according to the linked article) generally don't look at the death rates to start "fear-mongering".  They are looking at the number of cases or the positive test percentage.  Those numbers are not as accurate but are much more recent.  You can quickly spot an increase in cases or positive test percentages and realize that the problem is getting out of hand.  It is the increases in those numbers (not the deaths), that is causing all of the "fear-mongering".  So both sides (the side that is looking at the death counts and the side looking at the case counts) are technically correct.  One is just two weeks behind the other.

Quote

Quote

 

The New York Times put three reporters on a full-page article on Texas, published June 25 under the headline ‘AS NEW CASES SOAR, THE GOVERNOR FACES FALLOUT FROM A RUSH TO REOPEN.’ The story never mentioned coronavirus deaths. Texas’s daily death count has bounced around since early May without a sharp rise — a high of 63 new deaths on May 21, 42 on June 24. Arizona, another state facing media contempt, finally beat its earlier high of 67 deaths on May 8 with 79 deaths on June 24. Between those two dates, however, the curve was steady. The Arizona mortalities are concentrated on Indian reservations and to a lesser extent around the Mexican border.

In May, Georgia was the main target of expert contempt for its allegedly premature reopening. Since then, the media have gone silent, due to the state’s truly discouraging downward daily death toll from a high of 119 on April 7, long before the reopenings, to 10 on June 24.

The writer of this article is fairly critical of media attention/neglect.  My question is whether her figures are accurate.  

The numbers for Texas can be found at https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83           (click on Fatality Trends at the bottom).  That does show the deaths have been bouncing around between the 40s and 60s.  So, yes the death count is in that article is fairly accurate.  But the case count can be found at https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83 (click on Case Trends at the bottom).  And that shows that since the 16th, case counts have doubled or tripled.  The deaths from those new cases will only start to show up.  That is where the "fear-mongering" is coming from.  The number of cases has increased dramatically and are still increasing.  It is extremely likely that deaths will increase because of that.

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These remarks are likely to elicit controversy:

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There are no crises in hospital capacity anywhere in the country. Nursing homes, meat-packing plants, and prisons remain the main sources of new infections. Half the states are seeing cases decline or hold steady. Case counts are affected by more testing; the positive infection rate captured by testing is declining. The current caseload is younger, which is a good thing. The more people who have been infected and who recover, the more herd immunity is created. Meanwhile, daily deaths from heart disease and cancer — about 3,400 a day combined — go ignored in the press.

 

I think Rain has already pointed out in this thread that Arizona is having hospital capacity crisis.  There was an article in KSL about Dixie Regional getting really close to full (https://www.ksl.com/article/46770094/we-need-your-help-with-dixie-regional-medical-centers-icu-nearly-full-chief-doctor-asks-people-to-wear-masks).  Another article on KSL talks about how the hospital usage statistics are misleading https://www.ksl.com/article/46769906/as-virus-grows-governors-rely-on-misleading-hospital-data.  If you look at the hospital usage for the entire state, they might look fine.  But that could mean that one hospital is maxed out while another hospital is hardly used.  So it can hide hospital capacity crises.

Utah is seeing the positive infection rate increasing (Laboratory Testing Trends graph at https://coronavirus-dashboard.utah.gov/#trends).  John Hopkins has a graph for each of the states positive test results at https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/usa.  The overall USA rate is increasing.  Arizona, Florida, and Texas are all increasing.

[Scott Lloyd]

2 hours ago, webbles said:

The graph that article is showing is from https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA  I think the data is correct.  The only problem is that deaths is a lagging indicator.  It can take up to two weeks for deaths to occur.  In that time, the disease could have double the number of cases and two weeks later, there will be even more deaths.  So the people who are "fear-mongering" (according to the linked article) generally don't look at the death rates to start "fear-mongering".  They are looking at the number of cases or the positive test percentage.  Those numbers are not as accurate but are much more recent.  You can quickly spot an increase in cases or positive test percentages and realize that the problem is getting out of hand.  It is the increases in those numbers (not the deaths), that is causing all of the "fear-mongering".  So both sides (the side that is looking at the death counts and the side looking at the case counts) are technically correct.  One is just two weeks behind the other.

The numbers for Texas can be found at https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83           (click on Fatality Trends at the bottom).  That does show the deaths have been bouncing around between the 40s and 60s.  So, yes the death count is in that article is fairly accurate.  But the case count can be found at https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83 (click on Case Trends at the bottom).  And that shows that since the 16th, case counts have doubled or tripled.  The deaths from those new cases will only start to show up.  That is where the "fear-mongering" is coming from.  The number of cases has increased dramatically and are still increasing.  It is extremely likely that deaths will increase because of that.

I think Rain has already pointed out in this thread that Arizona is having hospital capacity crisis.  There was an article in KSL about Dixie Regional getting really close to full (https://www.ksl.com/article/46770094/we-need-your-help-with-dixie-regional-medical-centers-icu-nearly-full-chief-doctor-asks-people-to-wear-masks).  Another article on KSL talks about how the hospital usage statistics are misleading https://www.ksl.com/article/46769906/as-virus-grows-governors-rely-on-misleading-hospital-data.  If you look at the hospital usage for the entire state, they might look fine.  But that could mean that one hospital is maxed out while another hospital is hardly used.  So it can hide hospital capacity crises.

Utah is seeing the positive infection rate increasing (Laboratory Testing Trends graph at https://coronavirus-dashboard.utah.gov/#trends).  John Hopkins has a graph for each of the states positive test results at https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/usa.  The overall USA rate is increasing.  Arizona, Florida, and Texas are all increasing.

I’ve heard that newer cases are largely among younger age groups, those more apt to recover. Wouldn’t that affect the death rate?

[pogi]

9 hours ago, rodheadlee said:

The current spike in cases. 

To say it is one or the other doesn’t really get to the issue.  It is a multifaceted problem and there is plenty of blame to go around.  More than anything, I would say that we the people need to start taking responsibility and accountability for our actions.  We are the reason it is spiking.  We are the fuel for this virus.  We need to start listening to the top public health/infectious disease experts and do our part. That is how we stay open and prevent hospitals from overflowing.

Edited June 28, 2020 by pogi

[pogi]

15 hours ago, smac97 said:

I would be interested in feedback on this article.  I am posting it here because I would like to understand varying perspectives on COVID.

Is the bolded sentence above accurate?

The writer of this article is fairly critical of media attention/neglect.  My question is whether her figures are accurate.  

These remarks are likely to elicit controversy:

Pogi, I'd like to hear what you have to say about the above.

These remarks are a bit more subjective.  But I don't think there is sufficient attention being paid to the ramifications of our response to COVID, particularly as pertaining to jobs and the economy.

I am a real estate attorney.  I work for a law firm that does a lot of foreclosures.  I've been in this area of law for a decade now.  I started in 2010, when there was a huge increase in foreclosure-related litigation which occurred because of the subprime mortgage crisis.  Through much governmental, business and individual misconduct and foolishness, tons of people chose to speculate in the housing market, or else undertook far more house-related debt than they could realistically afford.  These causes, subprime lending and rampant real estate speculation, created a huge mess.

At present, foreclosures are nearly at a standstill nationwide.  The overall moratorium may continue for two more months, but that would put us just before the November elections, so there's a good chance the moratorium will be pushed to the end of the year.  But whether this year or next, the dam will break.  And when it does, the impact will be brutal.

-Smac

I think pebbles gave an excellent response.  He is absolutely right about the lag.  There is a lag between a spike in cases and a spike in hospitalizations.  There is another lag between a spike in hospitalizations and a spike in deaths.  We are just now seeing the corresponding spike in hospitalizations, and unless the virus has mutated to become less deadly, we know exactly what to expect next.  We have no reason to believe that there won't be a predictable spike in deaths to follow.

As far as testing goes.  No, the spike in cases is absolutely NOT associated with an increase in testing.  This has been debunked over and over and over.   Every state posts test data, hospitalization rates, etc.  There is a really great graph on the Utah site that shows absolutely no increase in overall test rates with a significant spike in positive test results.  

 https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/

Spend a little time on that site.  Look at all the different tabs and charts and graphs.  Look at the test data, look at the rate of cases, look at the corresponding rate of hospitalizations.  There is no question that we are headed in a VERY concerning direction with positive cases and hospitalizations.  I have already posted several times a very recent news article where IHC voiced their concern that if the trend doesn't change in Utah, hospitals will be overrun in a matter of weeks in Utah.  If that happens, then we will see death rates soar - and it won't just be people with Covid who are affected.  Anyone going to the hospital for an emergency will have a much higher rate of dying in that situation. 

Once again, if you are concerned about the economy, the best thing you can do is try to keep the economy open by getting the public to TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY.  

It is absolutely false that meat packing plants, prisons, and nursing homes are the primary source of new cases. Those account for maybe 1% of all cases I personally see.  This has also been debunked by our state epidemiologist in Utah, Angela Dunn.  The increase cannot be blamed on any single outbreak.  It is widespread.  

Edited June 28, 2020 by pogi

[pogi]

5 hours ago, Scott Lloyd said:

I’ve heard that newer cases are largely among younger age groups, those more apt to recover. Wouldn’t that affect the death rate?

The vast majority of cases have always been largely among younger age groups.  The problem is that there is an inevitable spread from younger to older, unless these younger people completely isolate from their older friends and family.  That doesn't happen though. Also, younger people still account for a large percentage of hospitalizations, even if they are not dying from it.

Edited June 28, 2020 by pogi

[Tacenda]

10 hours ago, smac97 said:

I would be interested in feedback on this article.  I am posting it here because I would like to understand varying perspectives on COVID.

Is the bolded sentence above accurate?

The writer of this article is fairly critical of media attention/neglect.  My question is whether her figures are accurate.  

These remarks are likely to elicit controversy:

Pogi, I'd like to hear what you have to say about the above.

These remarks are a bit more subjective.  But I don't think there is sufficient attention being paid to the ramifications of our response to COVID, particularly as pertaining to jobs and the economy.

I am a real estate attorney.  I work for a law firm that does a lot of foreclosures.  I've been in this area of law for a decade now.  I started in 2010, when there was a huge increase in foreclosure-related litigation which occurred because of the subprime mortgage crisis.  Through much governmental, business and individual misconduct and foolishness, tons of people chose to speculate in the housing market, or else undertook far more house-related debt than they could realistically afford.  These causes, subprime lending and rampant real estate speculation, created a huge mess.

At present, foreclosures are nearly at a standstill nationwide.  The overall moratorium may continue for two more months, but that would put us just before the November elections, so there's a good chance the moratorium will be pushed to the end of the year.  But whether this year or next, the dam will break.  And when it does, the impact will be brutal.

-Smac

And Utah has a better economy than most states, and you work in Utah and see this thing exploding huh? That's scary.

 Maybe if we'd listen to the experts and wear masks now...sadly they didn't urge it at the beginning, social distance and not shut down, our economy won't suffer. But people are refusing to wear masks because of liberty and all that crazy talk. And this isn't going to help us get back to work. Do you not agree?

Edited June 28, 2020 by Tacenda

[webbles]

7 hours ago, Scott Lloyd said:

I’ve heard that newer cases are largely among younger age groups, those more apt to recover. Wouldn’t that affect the death rate?

It would lower the death rate initially.  But as pogi mentioned, younger age will still spread it to older age and those with pre-existing conditions.  Plus, hospitals will still get overwhelmed.  Even though the younger age might survive it, they'll need hospitalization.  The Utah hospitalization rate for 25-44 is 4% (see the Total Hospitalizations by Age chart on https://coronavirus-dashboard.utah.gov/#hospitalizations-mortality).  And once these cases go to the hospitals, the hospitals run out of space and resources for non-covid19 problems.  And that's when we get more deaths in the older age because they can't get the medical help for heart problems, diabetes, etc.  In smac97's post, he quoted an article that said "Meanwhile, daily deaths from heart disease and cancer — about 3,400 a day combined — go ignored in the press."  Once the hospitals are full of younger adults who can survive covid19 with medical intervention, the hospitals will not be able to help those with the heart diseases and cancer and instead of 3,400 deaths a day, those will go up.

So, instead of a two week lag in seeing death rates going up, we'll see a 3-5 week lag.  But instead of just covid19 deaths going up, we'll see heart deaths, cancer deaths, traffic accident deaths, etc go up because the hospitals will be overwhelmed.

[webbles]

Talking about hospitalization usage:

Texas's usage can be found at https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f.  Click on "Hospitals - Statewide".  It has almost tripled since the beginning of June and is still increasing.

Arizona's usage can be found at https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php.  Click on "Hospital Covid-19 Specific Metrics".  It also has almost tripled since the beginning of June and is still increasing.

California's usage can be found at https://update.covid19.ca.gov/.  Scroll down to the "Positive COVID-19 hospital patients" section (below the half way mark).  It looks like it has increased by about 50% and is still increasing.  The chart next to it, though, has some good news.  The percentage of the covid19 patients that need ICU is going down.  That could be because more younger adults are getting sick and they might not need ICU.  But they still need regular beds.

[SeekingUnderstanding]

3 hours ago, pogi said:

The vast majority of cases have always been largely among younger age groups.  The problem is that there is an inevitable spread from younger to older, unless these younger people completely isolate from their older friends and family.  That doesn't happen though. Also, younger people still account for a large percentage of hospitalizations, even if they are not dying from it.

I think we are seeing two things. As testing availability and capacity increases, we will see an increase in younger people testing positive. Before only the most severe (which skews towards the elderly) in places like New York were able to be tested. So yes in places that were overwhelmed originally (NY, NJ etc), we are seeing much more testing and this accounts for some of the increase in numbers. 
 

In addition to the increased number of tests, there is a real upsurge in places like Utah, Florida, Texas, Arizona and elsewhere. This is a real second surge. Unscrupulous people who know better are using data from places like New York to say places like Florida and Texas don’t have a problem. 

Edited June 28, 2020 by SeekingUnderstanding

[Rain]

11 minutes ago, webbles said:

Talking about hospitalization usage:

Texas's usage can be found at https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f.  Click on "Hospitals - Statewide".  It has almost tripled since the beginning of June and is still increasing.

Arizona's usage can be found at https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php.  Click on "Hospital Covid-19 Specific Metrics".  It also has almost tripled since the beginning of June and is still increasing.

California's usage can be found at https://update.covid19.ca.gov/.  Scroll down to the "Positive COVID-19 hospital patients" section (below the half way mark).  It looks like it has increased by about 50% and is still increasing.  The chart next to it, though, has some good news.  The percentage of the covid19 patients that need ICU is going down.  That could be because more younger adults are getting sick and they might not need ICU.  But they still need regular beds.

I've noticed that intubations are going down while ventilators are going up in AZ. Do you have an idea why that would be?  Does everyone on a ventilator need an intubation? 

[pogi]

17 minutes ago, SeekingUnderstanding said:

I think we are seeing two things. As testing availability and capacity increases, we will see an increase in younger people testing positive. Before only the most severe (which skews towards the elderly) in places like New York were able to be tested. So yes in places that were overwhelmed originally (NY, NJ etc), we are seeing much more testing and this accounts for some of the increase in numbers. 
 

In addition to the increased number of tests, there is a real upsurge in places like Utah, Florida, Texas, Arizona and elsewhere. This is a real second surge. Unscrupulous people who know better are using data from places like New York to say places like Florida and Texas don’t have a problem. 

That is probably true.  I don’t follow national data as much.

[webbles]

1 hour ago, Rain said:

I've noticed that intubations are going down while ventilators are going up in AZ. Do you have an idea why that would be?  Does everyone on a ventilator need an intubation? 

I thought everyone on ventilators need intubation, but I don't know.

I think you are talking about the "Ventilators in Use Covid-19" and the "Intubations Covid" graphs.  It looks like the first graph is a running total.  Each day is the number of people needing a ventilator.  And the second graph is a daily snapshot.  Each day is the number of intubations performed.

So if the second graph (intubations) is flat, the first graph (ventilators) should still be going up because more people are being added to the existing ventilated population.  If the second graph is going down, then the first graph should go up at a much slower rate.  And if the second graph is going up, then the first graph should be going up really fast.

I tried comparing the individual numbers but they don't exactly match.  This is probably because people are being discharged while others are being added.  So the number of new people on ventilators (the change in the first graph) would be smaller then number of new intubations (the value in the second graph).

[pogi]

29 minutes ago, webbles said:

I thought everyone on ventilators need intubation, but I don't know.

That is right