We're Headed Back to Church! Sorta.

[pogi]

2 hours ago, Danzo said:

If you are identifying people with large inter generational families as problems, then why not say that?

 

I would expect that poverty is probably a much bigger common denominator than being "Latino" is when it comes to COVID risk and transmission.  By not identifying the real cause, and focusing on some invented class of people, we run the risk of not addressing the real problems.

The "real cause"?  Do tell...  How are you not discriminating against poor people in the same way that you are accusing me of discriminating against Hispanic people?

Poverty has been identified as a risk factor.  There is nothing wrong with acknowledging and addressing that.  And we ARE!  No, we are not blind to other denominators because we ask about ethnicity.  Within that population (poverty) there is an even higher risk sub-population - Hispanics.  By pretending that there are no differences in cultural trends/norms, we may never identify factors that may be exacerbating risks among certain populations.  You are asking us to put out a fire without being able to assess where the fire is and why it is spreading there.  Impoverished white people are harder hit than well-to-do white people, but they are not as hard hit is Hispanics in the same location.  Like it or not, it is a fact. One can use that knowledge for good or evil.  Don't confuse good for evil.  Our efforts are saving lives.  You can choose to be offended if you want. 

Edited May 21, 2020 by pogi

[Meadowchik]

11 minutes ago, pogi said:

The "real cause"?  Do tell...  How are you not discriminating against poor people in the same way that you are accusing me of discriminating against Hispanic people?

Poverty has been identified as a risk factor.  There is nothing wrong with acknowledging and addressing that.  And we ARE!  No, we are not blind to other denominators because we ask about ethnicity.  Within that population (poverty) there is an even higher risk sub-population - Hispanics.  By pretending that there are no differences in cultural trends/norms, we may never identify factors that may be exacerbating risks among certain populations.  You are asking us to put out a fire without being able to assess where the fire is and why it is spreading there.  Impoverished white people are harder hit than well-to-do white people, but they are not as hard hit is Hispanics in the same location.  Like it or not, it is a fact. One can use that knowledge for good or evil.  Don't confuse good for evil.  Our efforts are saving lives.  You can choose to be offended if you want. 

Multigenerational households may have something to do with some higher infection rates.

[mtomm]

20 minutes ago, Rain said:

Just curious if you are talking to the different SP because they happen to be your friends or family or if this comes from the calling or job you have?  If you don't feel comfortable sharing I understand.  

I prefer not to say exactly but I'm not related to nor do I have close friends who are currently serving in this position. You'll just have to trust me.  I'm not sharing anything sacred but I don't want to feel like I'm breaching any protocols either. 

16 minutes ago, Meadowchik said:

This seems like a really good reason to engage professional cleaners!

I thought that was going to happen for the initial opening but it did not come to fruition.  I think there would have been a huge financial outlay to do that properly but I don't know any exact reasons as to why.  Plus it would have only lasted for the first meeting and then it's like you never had professionals there at all.  There isn't a way to have someone professionally clean between each meeting. 
The buildings were all to have sanitizing products provided to them but due to backorders the supplier cannot get them out anytime soon. It will be thousands of kits just for the United States.   For this reason each stake will be responsible to provide those to the members for cleaning before any meetings begin so they will have to get them locally.  There are hurdles to opening quickly. 
 

[The Nehor]

2 hours ago, Danzo said:

I am surprised by you . This is why the country is so divided, you have decided that since I don't agree with you I must somehow be your enemy politically. 

 

I did not say that. I said one group loves it. It is definitely not exclusively used by them.

Edited May 21, 2020 by The Nehor

[The Nehor]

2 hours ago, longview said:

I am stunned!  Are there actually people who object to 1-nanny states and 2-absolute freedom of choice?  First is authoritarian, the other is anarchic.  I must be having a cognitive dissonance.  

Typo, I meant they complain about the nanny state and insist on absolute freedom of choice. Will fix.

[mtomm]

Dup

Edited May 22, 2020 by mtomm
Oops

[Meadowchik]

  

Edited May 22, 2020 by Meadowchik

[pogi]

38 minutes ago, Meadowchik said:

Multigenerational households may have something to do with some higher infection rates.

Multigenerational households are not necessarily responsible for higher rates any more than large households.  The only concern about multigenerational homes is that older/retired populations are living with younger, working people.  That places vulnerable people at risk where they otherwise wouldn't be at as high risk if they were empty-nesting.    

However, we don't see the same infection rates in large households (and we live in Utah!) and even multigenerational households in every population.  By simply targeting large households and multigenerational households, we are going to miss the target.  The net is too wide.  The hot spots are more narrowly concentrated, and ethnicity has been a more effective way of identifying those hotspots than any other measure (which we do track). 

I think it is a combination of factors.  1) House size.  Number of bedrooms/bathrooms and total square feet.  It is impossible for some to isolate from household members.  2) Family size.  For some reason, poor white people don't seem to have as large of families as poor Hispanic people.  3) Ability to work from home and number of close contacts at work.   So, poor people with small homes, and large families who can't work from home or work in close proximity with many other people are high risk.  We tend to see those factors more in some populations than others.  I have found through my many, many contacts that Hispanic people seem to be more likely to work through their symptoms if they have mild/moderate symptoms.  It is not uncommon to call someone who said their symptoms started on say 04/10/20 and they worked everyday through 04//25/20 and only tested once they found out a coworker or family member was positive.  It happens all the time.  By that time, they have spread the disease to upwards of 20 people at work.  I see it all the time. They also tend to work with other Hispanics who speak their language and so it stays in that concentrated population.  Many of the close contacts of index cases refuse to stay on quarantine because they need to work.  For whatever reason, I have noticed through my calls  that poor Hispanic people seem to be more eager to work than poor white people.  It is the poor white people that I see trying to stretch out quarantine as long as possible to get paid to stay home. Those are my personal observations.  People may be offended by them, but that is what I see. I believe it is a combination of those factors that may be causing some ethnic populations to be at greater risk.

The Pacific Islanders - huge families that love to party.  My contact list for Pacific Islanders frequently exceeds 20.  They have SO MANY contacts. Highly social.   

Edited May 21, 2020 by pogi

[ksfisher]

10 minutes ago, mtomm said:

 

I thought that was going to happen for the initial opening but it did not come to fruition.  I think there would have been a huge financial outlay to do that properly but I don't know any exact reasons as to why. 
 

With the buildings not having been used for the past couple of months any virus in the building would have died during that time.

[The Nehor]

1 hour ago, mtomm said:

As someone who has been speaking with numerous stake presidents about this issue  I think we will be surprised at how each stake (and maybe even each ward) handles returning.  Some that really want to go back are going to be disappointed that their stake president is moving very slowly.  Others are going to be disappointed that their stake president will move quickly.  This is going vary WIDELY across the US and the world.  Some doctors in that position expressly indicated they will not be returning any time soon.  If you are looking forward to longer home church hope that you are in their stake! 

Stake presidents are being instructed to clean the meetinghouse between each meeting.  That is a daunting task when you consider that every surface that gets touched will need cleaning before the next group comes in.  And do you trust the ward before you to have actually cleaned good enough?  What if you find out the youth have been charged with this task?  There is just so much to consider that I think we are going to see this coming about much slower than seems after this announcement. 

What I really hope is that someone will be monitoring if outbreaks start to happen in areas that are back at church.  That will be interesting data. 

I know this is early but do you happen to know if any areas in the US have been given higher up approval to start meeting or is this preliminary planning. My main source of intel I would normally use to get info like this has been very busy.  

[The Nehor]

1 minute ago, ksfisher said:

With the buildings not having been used for the past couple of months any virus in the building would have died during that time.

Buildings are still being used at times. I am in our church building right now.

[alter idem]

3 hours ago, ksfisher said:

You're exhaling more and harder when you sing than during a normal conversation. 

"When individuals sing, they project their voices. Powerful voices project droplets at far greater distances than does casual conversation."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/religious-gatherings-and-covid-19-why-singing-poses-additional-risk/ar-BB13vH8D

I Don't.  I know for certain I don't project and I don't sing powerfully,  I bet they're referring to trained singers. The tab choir most of us ain't.  I'm exhale much harder when exercising, so I'm not buying this.

[alter idem]

I'm sorry but this fear of singing is ridiculous.  Singing involves breath control; just try singing and exhaling strongly at the same time,  you'll probably get light headed, let alone sing very choppily, which sounds terrible.  Members can just wear masks and this would stop droplets so why demand that there can be no singing?

[Rain]

35 minutes ago, pogi said:

Multigenerational households are not necessarily responsible for higher rates any more than large households.  The only concern about multigenerational homes is that older/retired populations are living with younger, working people.  That places vulnerable people at risk where they otherwise wouldn't be at as high risk if they were empty-nesting.    

However, we don't see the same infection rates in large households (and we live in Utah!) and even multigenerational households in every population.  By simply targeting large households and multigenerational households, we are going to miss the target.  The net is too wide.  The hot spots are more narrowly concentrated, and ethnicity has been a more effective way of identifying those hotspots than any other measure (which we do track). 

I think it is a combination of factors.  1) House size.  Number of bedrooms/bathrooms and total square feet.  It is impossible for some to isolate from household members.  2) Family size.  For some reason, poor white people don't seem to have as large of families as poor Hispanic people.  3) Ability to work from home and number of close contacts at work.   So, poor people with small homes, and large families who can't work from home or work in close proximity with many other people are high risk.  We tend to see those factors more in some populations than others.  I have found through my many, many contacts that Hispanic people seem to be more likely to work through their symptoms if they have mild/moderate symptoms.  It is not uncommon to call someone who said their symptoms started on say 04/10/20 and they worked everyday through 04//25/20 and only tested once they found out a coworker or family member was positive.  It happens all the time.  By that time, they have spread the disease to upwards of 20 people at work.  I see it all the time. They also tend to work with other Hispanics who speak their language and so it stays in that concentrated population.  Many of the close contacts of index cases refuse to stay on quarantine because they need to work.  For whatever reason, I have noticed through my calls  that poor Hispanic people seem to be more eager to work than poor white people.  It is the poor white people that I see trying to stretch out quarantine as long as possible to get paid to stay home. Those are my personal observations.  People may be offended by them, but that is what I see. I believe it is a combination of those factors that may be causing some ethnic populations to be at greater risk. 

I've wondered if some is because they tend to be more physically demonstrative. I have several hispanic friends that found that English speaking wards were less friendly than Spanish.  Some of it was because of being able to understand each other, but the major part of it they realized was the hugging etc that was happening on the Spanish wards. 

I think it would be harder to social distance when that is such a big part of the culture. It's not a lack of intelligence, but if you feel more loved when you are physical then social distancing will be harder and then just getting past the habit will be harder as well   

35 minutes ago, pogi said:

The Pacific Islanders - huge families that love to party.  My contact list for Pacific Islanders frequently exceeds 20.  They have SO MANY contacts. Highly social.   

We have seen that as well. I wondered how that was going. We have a sweet Tongan girl in our primary class.  We took a present to her house and was going to put it on her doorstep like we did with another child and then step back so they could get it when they came to the door. At the Tongan house there was a big party in the carport and back yard. Her grandpa got excited to see us and came over to shake hands.  Her mom told her to give us a hug to say thank you.  

We love both of these cultures in our ward! I don't see them any less intelligent than us.  I could just see that how they share love was going to make it harder for them where covid is concerned.

[pogi]

24 minutes ago, alter idem said:

I'm sorry but this fear of singing is ridiculous. 

Based on what evidence?  It has been long known that singing spreads respiratory disease better than talking.  Do you deny the science?

24 minutes ago, alter idem said:

I'm sorry but this fear of singing is ridiculous.  Singing involves breath control; just try singing and exhaling strongly at the same time,  you'll probably get light headed, let alone sing very choppily, which sounds terrible.  Members can just wear masks and this would stop droplets so why demand that there can be no singing?

1) We aren’t required to wear masks.  Have you ever tried singing in a mask? 
2) masks don’t “stop” droplets. 
 

Are you willing to bet someone else’s life on it?  Are you that confident?

Edited May 22, 2020 by pogi

[pogi]

7 minutes ago, Rain said:

I've wondered if some is because they tend to be more physically demonstrative. I have several hispanic friends that found that English speaking wards were less friendly than Spanish.  Some of it was because of being able to understand each other, but the major part of it they realized was the hugging etc that was happening on the Spanish wards. 

I think it would be harder to social distance when that is such a big part of the culture. It's not a lack of intelligence, but if you feel more loved when you are physical then social distancing will be harder and then just getting past the habit will be harder as well   

We have seen that as well. I wondered how that was going. We have a sweet Tongan girl in our primary class.  We took a present to her house and was going to put it on her doorstep like we did with another child and then step back so they could get it when they came to the door. At the Tongan house there was a big party in the carport and back yard. Her grandpa got excited to see us and came over to shake hands.  Her mom told her to give us a hug to say thank you.  

We love both of these cultures in our ward! I don't see them any less intelligent than us.  I could just see that how they share love was going to make it harder for them where covid is concerned.

Exactly!  You are probably right about the social touch aspect of cultures.  Intelligence has nothing to do with it.  Just to clarify, Danzo said that, not me.

[Ahab]

20 minutes ago, alter idem said:

I'm sorry but this fear of singing is ridiculous.  Singing involves breath control; just try singing and exhaling strongly at the same time,  you'll probably get light headed, let alone sing very choppily, which sounds terrible.  Members can just wear masks and this would stop droplets so why demand that there can be no singing?

I agree.  I'm much more concerned with the idea of people talking to me while standing too close to me, and the same in regards to my wife.  And I think 6" is just barely far enough away in most cases.

I think we should bring back the phrase "I wouldn't touch that person with a 10" pole"... with each of us carrying a 10" pole while trying to keep everybody at least that far away.

[Ahab]

5 minutes ago, pogi said:

1) We aren’t required to wear masks.  Have you ever tried singing in a mask? 

No, but I'm willing to try it rather than everybody not wearing a mask.

... which reminds me of another question.  We generally don't approve of people wearing masks to cover their faces, do we?  I've heard something about that in regards to Halloween and costume parties.

 

5 minutes ago, pogi said:

2) masks don’t “stop” droplets. 

They can if they are good enough mask.

[Calm]

8 hours ago, Danzo said:

What I don't get is everyone's judgment on what risks are acceptable and what risks are not acceptable.   We should treat people like adults and not turn people into infants that need to be told what to do for their own good.

To do that we need to ensure people have the right info so they can at least choose to listen to it or not.

I don't think the government has been that great at getting info out there.  The Church provides basic info, but I am currently wondering if they are taking into account what some contact tracing has found with social distancing in enclosed spaces (basically not great ventilation and after an hour, social distancing doesn't work****).  Social distancing isn't going to help if we sing or stay in most chapels for the usual SM time (an hour).

****https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them?fbclid=IwAR2Hx3XCdJd4d6Ru9bkcPxykTncdw3AYGi1g3xJNlMWnOwuz23dxH8AIBOE

Edited May 22, 2020 by Calm

[Calm]

8 hours ago, Danzo said:

I have notice a curious trend.  People who are supposedly "high risk" (elderly) don't really mind coming in here without a mask.  When I ask them about it, they usually same something like, "when it's my time, its my time".

I think if the 'side effects' as well as what the dying part is actually like were talked about more, they might feel differently.  I too have little problem with being dead.  It is surviving this with less fingers and toes or with constant pain .(more than I have now) due to damaged vital organs, maybe being permanently attached to a ventilator for years, etc....that is the part that troubles me and what I want to protect my loved ones from.

I think there was a lot of 'you get it mild or you die' talk at the beginning and that has stuck in many peoples' minds.  It is like thinking of getting in a car accident, going out in an explosion is not that bad of a way to go...but what if it is a broken neck so you are paralyzed or massive, nasty burns over most of your body, but not quite enough to kill you.  

Living for 60 more years hooked up to a machine or in constant agony sounds massively worse than a couple of weeks or even a couple of years living that way, so I can see why the young are more frightened by the nastier possibilities even if their probability is lower.

Quote

Its the young and healthy that seem to be the most scared.  

Quote

who assure me that going outside in this pandemic is one of the least risky things they have done in their life.

Going outside is quite safe in most cases, it is being inside in enclosed spaces, especially with poor ventilation, for long periods of time (50 minutes or more) that is dangerous.  See link I posted above for examples of infection occurring in a restaurant with social distancing, etc.

Edited May 22, 2020 by Calm

[Calm]

6 hours ago, Danzo said:

That may be the problem,  you divide people into categories that you call "race". This category has individuals that have very little, in common genetically, culturally, linguistically or in any other meaningful way.

You keep patting yourself on the back that the data is helpful in your efforts, just like categorizing base on "race" has been helpful in identifying criminals, poor people and other types of "Other" that people feel they need to deal with. 

Once you have done that you can tell them how to take care of themselves, what is best for them and how helpful you are to them. 

How would you suggest an easy to define identifier that can help with finding trends due to genetic or cultural causes?  Say for sickle cell anemia....how would you talk about the populations most at risk for that?

[Calm]

7 hours ago, alter idem said:

In my ward, a lot of people do not sing, they just sit there. Is talking safe, it seems like talking would be just as dangerous as singing. So in a restaurant patrons will be talking so that's a lot of possibly contaminated air. In gyms, it's even worse, people are breathing heavily and filling the air with humid exhaling.  I don't understand why that is allowed but singing is dangerous?   This is what's so frustrating,  as some things are a threat but other possible threats are ignored?

I just want to see consistency and reason given some consideration.

Singing speeds up the spread of the virus, thus shortening the time a person on the opposite side of the room will get enough exposure (can't remember the numbers for the viral load, if that is the right word, at the moment) in a less ventilated space.  I don't find many of the chapels that well ventilated and doors and windows where they exist are often closed, making ventilation even less effective.

Even if we are not all professional singers, many naturally project their voices while singing (I did before allergies shut that down) or at least breathe stronger than when at normal resting rate and thus the virus leaves the mouth at a higher speed and will therefore travel farther.  Smaller particles stay air borne longer as well.  

Depending on the speed of the virus when it leaves people's mouths plus air currents (people 'downwind' of the ventilation current are much more likely to become infected than those 'upwind') virus particles will travel significantly beyond the six feet social distance limit.  Plus smaller particles stay in the air longer and will eventually travel throughout a room.  Iirc it took 50 minutes for a person on the opposite side of a volleyball court size room to be exposed to a high enough viral load to become infected (though I read a couple of different articles at the same time, so may be confusing my stats....check the link if you want precision).

Talking and just breathing is dangerous for extended periods of time.  Singing shortens that times.

Masks are encouraged, but not required and they don't stop all the virus...some stop hardly any (bandanas for example).

PS:  I haven’t been in one ward in the last 35 years where I haven’t had at least one professionally trained singer.  We have a lot of somewhat musically trained just as a hobby singers in the Church from what I have seen, but that maybe due simply to my luck as my mom had some lessons and made sure my sister and I did (though the teacher said I got worse, not better...he scared me) plus several sister in laws weren’t professionally trained in music, but were always performing at church with lovely voices. Plus my son played the clarinet, so developed lungs and participated in the Messiah production Calgary stakes put in every Christmas.  I have one set of nieces and nephews professionally trained. We had two professionals in our ward in Canada, a handful of amateurs plus one professional in my Utah wards, growing up California ward had several families that were amateurs, can’t remember Illinois. Kansas I remember a musically gifted family but think they were all instrumental.

Edited May 22, 2020 by Calm

[mtomm]

2 hours ago, ksfisher said:

With the buildings not having been used for the past couple of months any virus in the building would have died during that time.

It would be a big misconception to think that building use ever stopped.

[Calm]

1 minute ago, mtomm said:

It would be a big misconception to think that building use ever stopped.

I have heard of a number who go there to do work as it is quieter than at home.

[mtomm]

3 hours ago, The Nehor said:

I know this is early but do you happen to know if any areas in the US have been given higher up approval to start meeting or is this preliminary planning. My main source of intel I would normally use to get info like this has been very busy.  

The stake presidents were meeting with the area presidencies and their coordinating councils this week and then they will make the decision on whether their stake will be opening or waiting. 

I wouldn't be surprised if we start seeing meetings happen  the week after next. 

Edited May 22, 2020 by mtomm