Peggy Stack Reports Missionary Numbers Are Still Declining

[Peppermint Patty]

Peggy Fletcher Stack reports there are currently less than 67,000 missionaries today. At last year's General Conference it was reported that there were 70,946 missionaries. I wonder if the number will drop even more before the April General Conference.  https://www.sltrib.com/religion/local/2018/01/10/hundreds-of-mormon-mission-calls-go-out-but-with-a-new-look/

Quote

Today, the church has nearly 67,000 missionaries, the release said, serving in 421 missions around the globe.

 

What is causing the continued drop in numbers? Is this expected after the surge? What is the predicted number that this will stabilize at? 

[Duncan]

I was under the impression there was a report that there would be mission closing to help with the decline, but I haven't heard anything. I don't know if there is one reason for the decline and I wonder if there is a gender difference for it, like why a young lady doesn't go is different from why a young man doesn't go. if I were to guess, money, confidence, knowledge/testimony, plus it seems like the excitement to serve has waned. Pres. Nelson has that talk

https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2013/04/catch-the-wave?lang=eng

This happened in WW1 and other wars as well, it's all fun and games until you go and then you could go home early or whatever, hate it and then you tell 5 friends about how a mission really is and all of a sudden a mission isn't something they're so excited about, "You want to be a missionary? go talk to that drunk guy over there with no shirt on and make sure you speak your language so he understands you we need 5 lessons today so our DL will get off of our back!!!!"

[JLHPROF]

Maybe the beginning of the end...calling the missionaries home so the Lord can preach his own sermons.

[Calm]

11 minutes ago, Duncan said:

I was under the impression there was a report that there would be mission closing to help with the decline, but I haven't heard anything. I don't know if there is one reason for the decline and I wonder if there is a gender difference for it, like why a young lady doesn't go is different from why a young man doesn't go. if I were to guess, money, confidence, knowledge/testimony, plus it seems like the excitement to serve has waned. Pres. Nelson has that talk

https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2013/04/catch-the-wave?lang=eng

This happened in WW1 and other wars as well, it's all fun and games until you go and then you could go home early or whatever, hate it and then you tell 5 friends about how a mission really is and all of a sudden a mission isn't something they're so excited about, "You want to be a missionary? go talk to that drunk guy over there with no shirt on and make sure you speak your language so he understands you we need 5 lessons today so our DL will get off of our back!!!!"

The novelty of being a sister missionary or going out right out of high school has probably worn off.  

I would like to see percentages of those eligible to go in terms of age and health as opposed to those who do go and compare that to past decades.

It would not surprise me if there was a negative balance in comparison (or the reverse though I think negatives are more likely given the increased options to youth for socializing these days).  It is easier these days for those who are in the borderlands of uncertain to hook up with those who are anti.  Once that conversation has been opened and continued, I don't think it likely there is much coming back among the young.  The same can happen in a believing way, but I do think it is easier to destroy belief or pretty much anything else for that matter than it is to build it (think of how easy it is to go from healthy to unhealthy for most people while the reverse can take much longer to heal the damage if it can be healed).

Edited January 10, 2018 by Calm

[Hamba Tuhan]

1 hour ago, Peppermint Patty said:

What is causing the continued drop in numbers?

I have no idea, but I certainly preferred the higher numbers. We lost two of our missionaries this week (Elders), and there was talk of not replacing them. Which would have made me super cranky. 

Thankfully, we got two replacements yesterday! 

[Robert F. Smith]

1 hour ago, Duncan said:

I was under the impression there was a report that there would be mission closing to help with the decline, but I haven't heard anything. I don't know if there is one reason for the decline and I wonder if there is a gender difference for it, like why a young lady doesn't go is different from why a young man doesn't go.

I understand that the percentage of women serving is way up, and that the decline is in men.  Create a society of wusses and that's what you get.  Where are the real men?  By the way, I was just reading that women prefer dominant men (the alpha-male) -- even if he is a male chauvinist pig.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/head-games/201305/the-allure-aggressive-men .

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/240209578_Do_Women_Prefer_Dominant_Men_The_Case_of_the_Missing_Control_Condition .

1 hour ago, Duncan said:

............................................

This happened in WW1 and other wars as well, it's all fun and games until you go and then you could go home early or whatever, hate it and then you tell 5 friends about how a mission really is and all of a sudden a mission isn't something they're so excited about, "You want to be a missionary? go talk to that drunk guy over there with no shirt on and make sure you speak your language so he understands you we need 5 lessons today so our DL will get off of our back!!!!"

It isn't supposed to be easy, which is what makes it such an effective initiatory experience.  It is no accident that Mormon women prefer a take charge RM.  Emphasize that, and just maybe there would be an increase in men going on missions.

[Calm]

Robot, in the psychology today article, did they define what "good genes" were?

[sjdawg]

I would struggle being a missionary today.  Wouldn't it be frustrating to pay a few hundred dollars a month, move across the country (or world), and then spend your time trying to proselyte using facebook, snapchat, and instragram.  That sounds soul crushing to me.

[Thinking]

The problem is that if the age is moved back to 19 for young men, there will be a one year gap in which not very many new missionaries will receive calls. Oops.

[rongo]

4 hours ago, sjdawg said:

I would struggle being a missionary today.  Wouldn't it be frustrating to pay a few hundred dollars a month, move across the country (or world), and then spend your time trying to proselyte using facebook, snapchat, and instragram.  That sounds soul crushing to me.

I think this is a key factor for missionaries in North America (it's much less the case for missionaries who serve foreign, simply because circumstances dictate that missionaries are needed to be be actual missionaries in those places). The attempts to shield them from adversity and challenges (curtailing proselyting and finding) and to keep them from electronics withdrawal by having them do "smarter, not harder missionary work" on devices have created a cycle of depression, anxiety, boredom, and guilt, in my experience. Our missionaries hang out at the building at all hours of the day (there are usually 3-4 cars with the bike racks on the back in the parking lot), playing on the piano, tapping and swiping on iPads, and having "meetings." The romance and adventure of missions (at least stateside) is a mere shadow of what it used to be. 

Missionaries being assigned is actually going up dramatically in our stake, but 95%+ are assigned to stateside missions. As they close/consolidate foreign missions and expand missions in North America, this is inevitable. 

Truth be told, though, I think this decline would happen even if we still did missionary work stateside. I know some people take issue with my assessment of the current generations of 12-30 year-olds, but looking at these kids, nobody should be shocked that many are failing to go on missions and that many of those who do serve missions struggle mightily on them and struggle with all sorts of things after. 

[Gray]

4 hours ago, sjdawg said:

I would struggle being a missionary today.  Wouldn't it be frustrating to pay a few hundred dollars a month, move across the country (or world), and then spend your time trying to proselyte using facebook, snapchat, and instragram.  That sounds soul crushing to me.

Let's be honest - knocking doors and making street contacts is pretty demoralizing too.

[cacheman]

8 hours ago, Peppermint Patty said:

What is causing the continued drop in numbers? Is this expected after the surge? What is the predicted number that this will stabilize at? 

It looks like the current numbers are approaching the pre-surge levels (as a percentage of the total church membership).

Past predictions by the mission program directors, Elder Holland, and others appear to have been overly optimistic. I don't know if there are any updated projections.

This is the latest projection that I'm aware of:  https://www.mormonnewsroom.org/article/elder-nielson-provides-mormon-missionary-update-after-surge

[rongo]

5 minutes ago, Gray said:

Let's be honest - knocking doors and making street contacts is pretty demoralizing too.

I loved it! Paying $10,000 (or having other people pay $10,000) to spend two years hanging out at the church and tapping and swiping on iPads, vs. having conversations with people (sometimes deflecting them with humor) and building your own adventure stories? No contest. What adventure stories are  the coddled missionaries going to come home with?

Our mission piloted the program (it pilots a lot of programs) where missionaries spend a lot of time in the last six months of the mission working on resumes, life competency skills, interviewing skills, etc. to help with the transition once they go home (yuck!). I haven't heard a thing about it for quite some time, though, so I think it died a quiet death. That, fully-implemented, would be even worse than hanging out at the church. You could just go ahead and work or do college for those two years . . .

[Duncan]

I've said this before but we had an Elder here from England in 2013 and back then, basically they gave church tours and facebooked, if he had known that he'd have stayed home. trying to get strangers in off of the street to go into a strange building, I dunno, they would literally sit there waiting for people or trying to get people in and it didn't work out so great. They were basically banned from tracting, but only they could do that as a last resort but if you take that out they didn't replace it with anything and so you have missionaries not really doing much. They want to but it was tough. This mission and i'm sure others a TON, a TON of missionaries were going home early, it was unbelievable. There so many missionaries here too that the wards had 3 sets and there was just not enough work for everyone, small areas, not a ton of members, it's tough

Edited January 10, 2018 by Duncan

[rongo]

10 minutes ago, Duncan said:

I've said this before but we had an Elder here from England in 2013 and back then, basically they gave church tours and facebooked, if he had known that he'd have stayed home. trying to get strangers in off of the street to go into a strange building, I dunno, they would literally sit there waiting for people or trying to get people in and it didn't work out so great. They were basically banned from tracting, but only they could do that as a last resort but if you take that out they didn't replace it with anything and so you have missionaries not really doing much. They want to but it was tough. This mission and i'm sure others a TON, a TON of missionaries were going home early, it was unbelievable. There so many missionaries here too that the wards had 3 sets and there was just not enough work for everyone, small areas, not a ton of members, it's tough

You had said, too, that they had them do things like indexing, and that this missionary said that he could have stayed home and done that and saved the money. 

Just puttering around, keeping missionaries "busy" and "giving them something to do" is not okay, in my book. We have a glorious tradition of missionary service (and it being a life-changing thing that sets the tone for life) in the Church. Relegating it to a tepid "keep 'em active and out of trouble" extended youth program is a travesty. And, in my view, this is one of the biggest reasons for early returns, anxiety, depression, guilt (people feel instinctively like they should be doing something more or something grander), boredom, and setting bad habits for the future.

Edited January 10, 2018 by rongo

[Duncan]

Just now, rongo said:

You had said, too, that they had them do things like indexing, and that this missionary said that he could have stayed home and done that and saved the money. 

Just puttering around, keeping missionaries "busy" is not okay, in my book. We have a glorious tradition of missionary service (and it being a life-changing thing that sets the tone for life) in the Church. Relegating it to a tepid "keep 'em active and out of trouble" extended youth program is a travesty. And, in my view, this is one of the biggest reasons for early returns, anxiety, depression, guilt (people feel instinctively like they should be doing something more or something grander), boredom, and setting bad habits for the future.

exactley!!! plus, too since then about a dozen missionaries , 10 or so elders and 2 sisters that have served here have bailed on the church, it's sad. Here too, like other places they have them in these remote areas where they have tiny branches but nothing to do. So, they are out in the middle of nowhere, a small branch of 10-20 members but one elders said you basically walk up and down main street all day, then go to a member's house for dinner and spend the evening taking pictures, as there is nothing else to do. 

[Gray]

54 minutes ago, rongo said:

I loved it! Paying $10,000 (or having other people pay $10,000) to spend two years hanging out at the church and tapping and swiping on iPads, vs. having conversations with people (sometimes deflecting them with humor) and building your own adventure stories? No contest. What adventure stories are  the coddled missionaries going to come home with?

Our mission piloted the program (it pilots a lot of programs) where missionaries spend a lot of time in the last six months of the mission working on resumes, life competency skills, interviewing skills, etc. to help with the transition once they go home (yuck!). I haven't heard a thing about it for quite some time, though, so I think it died a quiet death. That, fully-implemented, would be even worse than hanging out at the church. You could just go ahead and work or do college for those two years . . .

Hmm, I thought it was pretty demoralizing. Once I got out on the streets and got a taste for what the work was like, I sank into a deep depression.

Eventually I worked my way through it. People can learn to tolerate almost anything. I did love actually teaching and making connections when it happened. But the door to door sales aspect of the job was terrible.

The old model doesn't work anymore. I agree, the new models sound terrible too. I think the way forward is greater and greater emphasis on humanitarian service.

[Exiled]

7 hours ago, Robert F. Smith said:

I understand that the percentage of women serving is way up, and that the decline is in men.  Create a society of wusses and that's what you get.  Where are the real men?  By the way, I was just reading that women prefer dominant men (the alpha-male) -- even if he is a male chauvinist pig.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/head-games/201305/the-allure-aggressive-men .

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/240209578_Do_Women_Prefer_Dominant_Men_The_Case_of_the_Missing_Control_Condition .

It isn't supposed to be easy, which is what makes it such an effective initiatory experience.  It is no accident that Mormon women prefer a take charge RM.  Emphasize that, and just maybe there would be an increase in men going on missions.

Men not going because they are scared? Not real men?  I wonder how that could be shown in a quantitative or qualitative way?  Does going on a religious mission really equate with machismo?  I know back in the day we would wrestle the natives and put them in headlocks while forcing them into the baptismal font, but those days of kicking the investigator into the water are over. 

[cacheman]

1 hour ago, cacheman said:

It looks like the current numbers are approaching the pre-surge levels (as a percentage of the total church membership).

Past predictions by the mission program directors, Elder Holland, and others appear to have been overly optimistic. I don't know if there are any updated projections.

This is the latest projection that I'm aware of:  https://www.mormonnewsroom.org/article/elder-nielson-provides-mormon-missionary-update-after-surge

Apparently, last year at this time the newsroom facts and statistics page reported that the number of missionaries was on a steady upward trend.  The updated page doesn't offer any insight on the current trends. 

[stemelbow]

Quote

“At the beginning of this year, we had 418 missions in the Church,” reported Elder Nielson. “We've just created the Vietnam Mission, which is now officially in place, and by July we will have created two other new missions in Africa, which will give us a total of 421 missions.”

After the age requirement for young men and women was lowered in October 2012, the missionary force hit a record high of nearly 89,000 men, women and senior couples. Young men can now serve at age 18, and women can begin their service at age 19.

Download Photos »

 

 

“As that surge passed, we're now down to around 75,000 missionaries, which is where we think we'll stay for a period of time as that gradually increases,” he said. 

https://www.mormonnewsroom.org/article/elder-nielson-provides-mormon-missionary-update-after-surge

 

It might still have some decline to go before the effect of the surge is over.  It was argued for a  while that the number would increase after it fell to 75,000, of course before that we were told the number would increase to 100,000 by next year.  If we project forward from 2012 without the age change, we'd likely have more missionaries now than we do if no change was made.  

I see a range, predicting forward from 2012 of 67,270-80,673 by now.  

Additionally the problem has arisen, at least unofficially by observers without data, it seems more young men are going home early unable to cope.  And twice as many young women are going as they did before the age change, apparently.  That means we have far more young men electing not to go in the first place.  It may be that we have around 40,000 young men missionaries now, compared to about 45,000 in 2012 when the Church membership total was more than a million less.  (14.7 Million in 2012 compared to a likely total of 16 million now, 15.8 million at the end of 2016).

Was the age change revelation a good thing or a destructive thing in the long run?  I guess we'll see.  If it is bad do we question God or the means of revelation?

 

 

 

 

[rongo]

18 minutes ago, Gray said:

Hmm, I thought it was pretty demoralizing. Once I got out on the streets and got a taste for what the work was like, I sank into a deep depression.

Most missionaries don't like it. Rejection rate is high, and you can feel the dislike and disdain radiating off of most people. Still, most of my very special mission experiences came through door-to-door. You don't have them if you don't do it.

Eventually I worked my way through it. People can learn to tolerate almost anything. I did love actually teaching and making connections when it happened. But the door to door sales aspect of the job was terrible.

I much preferred door-to-door to street contacting, although I did that when called for. We did street displays every Saturday in the markets (permit required, put a table out with eye-catchers and try to talk to people), and these were successful. I even did outside-the-box things, like displaying big posters of the Articles of Faith, or the 17 points of the true church (I know, I know. It's a good thought-provoker and conversation starter, though!  ). We put out copies of the Book of Mormon is exotic languages, and we invited timid members to just come and look at the stuff on the table --- no talking required. When natives are looking at it, that gives psychological permission for others to do it, too (and not be the first one to look at the Mormons' stuff!), and people flocked to the table. 

I've shared this before, but I anonymously polled the mission, and found that door-to-door was dead last in finding method popularity, but overwhelmingly #1 in finding method with lessons taught and baptisms. Elder Holland commented on my findings that our mission should increase its tracting time. 

The old model doesn't work anymore. I agree, the new models sound terrible too. I think the way forward is greater and greater emphasis on humanitarian service.

Humanitarian isn't a good finding method. It has value in its own right, but if the Church weans itself off of finding in favor of less-uncomfortable things like that, no one should be surprised when baptisms continue to drop dramatically. When you're not doing missionary work, then there will be less results. For all of the hand-wringing over declining baptisms, it seems obvious to me that this should be the case, since our missionaries do far less finding. 

[Exiled]

23 minutes ago, Gray said:

Hmm, I thought it was pretty demoralizing. Once I got out on the streets and got a taste for what the work was like, I sank into a deep depression.

Eventually I worked my way through it. People can learn to tolerate almost anything. I did love actually teaching and making connections when it happened. But the door to door sales aspect of the job was terrible.

The old model doesn't work anymore. I agree, the new models sound terrible too. I think the way forward is greater and greater emphasis on humanitarian service.

It's a sales job for sure.  Those jobs can be draining emotionally, especially if the mission pres isn't that good at the right kind of motivation.  Humanitarian service would be more rewarding for the missionary, however, from the standpoint of new converts, unless one asks, no one will join.  Unless one makes a sales presentation, explaining the product, the potential will not be ready to commit.  So, I don't think there will ever be a total change to emphasize only humanitarian service.  The goal of mormonism always was spreading the news and inviting others to join.

[stemelbow]

7 hours ago, Robert F. Smith said:

I understand that the percentage of women serving is way up, and that the decline is in men.  Create a society of wusses and that's what you get.  Where are the real men?  By the way, I was just reading that women prefer dominant men (the alpha-male) -- even if he is a male chauvinist pig.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/head-games/201305/the-allure-aggressive-men .

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/240209578_Do_Women_Prefer_Dominant_Men_The_Case_of_the_Missing_Control_Condition .

It isn't supposed to be easy, which is what makes it such an effective initiatory experience.  It is no accident that Mormon women prefer a take charge RM.  Emphasize that, and just maybe there would be an increase in men going on missions.

My son elected not to go on a mission, having graduated high school this past year and he is far from a wuss.  I agree, since the age change the number of boys, ti seems, facing the question of whether to go or not have decided not to go.  I would also suggest that the number of boys going and leaving early seems to have increased, although that is mere guesswork based on anecdotal stories told.  I really don't think that means much more than, the walls are cracking quite a bit and the Church more and more is losing it's ability to put fingers in the holes more and more.  

Blaming the members tactic I think works if you want to maintain control and is probably the next best course for the Church to take if it wants to continue in retrenchment.  

Edited January 10, 2018 by stemelbow

[Gray]

3 minutes ago, rongo said:

Humanitarian isn't a good finding method. It has value in its own right, but if the Church weans itself off of finding in favor of less-uncomfortable things like that, no one should be surprised when baptisms continue to drop dramatically. When you're not doing missionary work, then there will be less results. For all of the hand-wringing over declining baptisms, it seems obvious to me that this should be the case, since our missionaries do far less finding. 

The traditional model brought in baptisms, but arguably not many real conversions. I think service might be a more effective conversion tool, even if baptism statistics took a hit.

[ALarson]

1 hour ago, rongo said:

Just puttering around, keeping missionaries "busy" and "giving them something to do" is not okay, in my book. We have a glorious tradition of missionary service (and it being a life-changing thing that sets the tone for life) in the Church. Relegating it to a tepid "keep 'em active and out of trouble" extended youth program is a travesty. And, in my view, this is one of the biggest reasons for early returns, anxiety, depression, guilt (people feel instinctively like they should be doing something more or something grander), boredom, and setting bad habits for the future.

I agree 100% with your thoughts here.  This is on my mind because we have had another missionary return home early just this week and he's a mess (mentally and emotionally).  He missed his friends, he missed his youtube, he missed his cellphone freedom, and he hated what they had him doing ("busy work").  

I'm not sure what the solution is really either.  I do worry about this next generation (I sound so old when I say that ) as these kids are so completely connected by their phones and social media.  They live and breath it (and almost all of them watch youtube nonstop it seems and live through other people's lives that seem so glamorous and fun).  I see their communication skills really going downhill too as they mostly text (with poor spelling, abbreviations and grammar).  Most homes in our ward no longer have land lines, so the youth rarely have to ever speak to an adult and learn proper phone skills, etc.

We have discussed this a lot in our bishopric meetings and we simply don't know how to make any of this better.  We tried telling the youth no cellphones at activities, but they still would sneak them and some would go off and isolate themselves to check their messages or go online.....some even stayed home rather than give up their phones for a few hours a week.

I do like the idea of missions becoming more of service missions (but not sure how successful that would be in bringing new members in....but maybe by example and love that will be exactly what happens).  We also need to stop teaching the youth that missions will be the "best 2 years of your life".  For some that may be true, but it also will be the "hardest 2 years of your life so far". 

Edited January 10, 2018 by ALarson