Peggy Stack Reports Missionary Numbers Are Still Declining

[clarkgoble]

1 hour ago, Gray said:

The traditional model brought in baptisms, but arguably not many real conversions. I think service might be a more effective conversion tool, even if baptism statistics took a hit.

I'm not sure that's true. There were definitely ways to get baptisms without conversions but there were also lots of real conversions. Say what one will about incentives, particularly in Latin America, for big numbers with few long term conversions. However even with those problems the 80's through early 90's were a period of real long term growth for the Church. My guess is that this hit "low hanging fruit" and couldn't continue to be replicated though. In many areas I suspect people have heard about the Church enough that new tactics are needed. Asia might be a bit different. As I've long said I think we could do much, much better in Asia than we've done.

1 hour ago, stemelbow said:

Was the age change revelation a good thing or a destructive thing in the long run?  I guess we'll see.  If it is bad do we question God or the means of revelation?

Was it claimed to be a revelation? I don't recall hearing that. It could easily be them looking at hard data and studies trying to figure out the best policy. To me the decision is about tradeoffs. I think the goal was to increase retention among 18-25 males. Whether it did or not I don't know. I'm sure the Church has numbers on that. I thought it pretty obvious from the beginning that in terms of missionary work it'd have big costs. My guess is that there were also unexpected consequences on the young men due to immaturity such as we're hearing in this thread. I rather strongly suspect that most people would do much better having a year away from home yet with more freedom along with the responsibility before being thrown into a mission. It's just too abrupt a change. The people who'd leave the Church in that year likely would have left the Church had they gone on a mission. In fact if anything I suspect the numbers are actually higher.

Again, without hard data it's hard to say anything. I suspect we'll have more information come April conference. My guess is that they'll reverse this change, much like they reversed the shift to 1.5 year missions.

Edited January 10, 2018 by clarkgoble

[Robert F. Smith]

1 hour ago, Exiled said:

Men not going because they are scared? Not real men?  I wonder how that could be shown in a quantitative or qualitative way?  Does going on a religious mission really equate with machismo?  I know back in the day we would wrestle the natives and put them in headlocks while forcing them into the baptismal font, but those days of kicking the investigator into the water are over. 

Going on a mission, into the military, etc.  Where are the places in which men can prove themselves?  Where is the true initiation process to be found?  In pledging to a Greek fraternity  on campus, where getting drunk is the mode of initiation?  Is that really all we are left with?  When women are the only one's left with a shred of manhood, what does that say about our society?

[Gray]

3 minutes ago, Robert F. Smith said:

So you don't blame shifts in societal patterns of behavior?  That is the infantilization and feminization of the larger society.  I am thinking primarily of America in that, but it may be a worldwide phenomenon, and that Mormons get swept up in that devolution along with everyone else (to a greater or lesser extent).

 

I'm surprised to see you mention infantalization and feminization in the same breath. Maybe you meant to use a different term?

[The Nehor]

1 minute ago, Robert F. Smith said:

Going on a mission, into the military, etc.  Where are the places in which men can prove themselves?  Where is the true initiation process to be found?  In pledging to a Greek fraternity  on campus, where getting drunk is the mode of initiation?  Is that really all we are left with?  When women are the only one's left with a shred of manhood, what does that say about our society?

Until you have killed another man and eaten his heart you are not truly a man.

[Gray]

1 hour ago, Exiled said:

Men not going because they are scared? Not real men?  I wonder how that could be shown in a quantitative or qualitative way?  Does going on a religious mission really equate with machismo?  I know back in the day we would wrestle the natives and put them in headlocks while forcing them into the baptismal font, but those days of kicking the investigator into the water are over. 

We would challenge them to bare knuckle fisticuffs. Loser had to join the other person's church. Once after suffering a broken nose, I had to spend six months on my mission as a Pentecostal. 

Edited January 10, 2018 by Gray

[Duncan]

one thing about missions too, some people come back and slowly get back into their old behaviours, same friends, same hangouts etc. so you can prove yourself but does it last? same thing with more service oriented activities, does it lead to teaching or is it strictly service? I can just see the missionaries calling the MP day in and day out with approval for service opportunities, after awhile he gives a zone conference where it's back to them to make up their own minds about it and not to call him on a daily basis and it's shifted back and then you can be back to where the missionaries are being taken advantage of (I got what I want out of you but i'm not interested in your message or I am too cheap to call a professional)

[Gray]

3 minutes ago, Duncan said:

one thing about missions too, some people come back and slowly get back into their old behaviours, same friends, same hangouts etc. so you can prove yourself but does it last? same thing with more service oriented activities, does it lead to teaching or is it strictly service? I can just see the missionaries calling the MP day in and day out with approval for service opportunities, after awhile he gives a zone conference where it's back to them to make up their own minds about it and not to call him on a daily basis and it's shifted back and then you can be back to where the missionaries are being taken advantage of (I got what I want out of you but i'm not interested in your message or I am too cheap to call a professional)

In my mind service should be modeled after the Peace Corps humanitarian mission. Not the easy LDS ward service projects where you go over and mow someone's lawn or help someone move or clean up a cemetery.

[Duncan]

4 minutes ago, Gray said:

In my mind service should be modeled after the Peace Corps humanitarian mission. Not the easy LDS ward service projects where you go over and mow someone's lawn or help someone move or clean up a cemetery.

how do they operate?

[CA Steve]

2 minutes ago, Gray said:

In my mind service should be modeled after the Peace Corps humanitarian mission. Not the easy LDS ward service projects where you go over and mow someone's lawn or help someone move or clean up a cemetery.

I think it could be both. We could  be involved in both large and small projects and have the ability to accommodate both the needs of the local members and larger community. We could even have an at-large group that was sent into high needs areas where natural or man made disasters occurred. Can you imagine the what it would do for the image of the church for this group to be consistently seen showing up at disaster scenes?

 

 

[ALarson]

3 minutes ago, Gray said:

In my mind service should be modeled after the Peace Corps humanitarian mission. Not the easy LDS ward service projects where you go over and mow someone's lawn or help someone move or clean up a cemetery.

I agree.  This would actually do more to help the missionary, IMO.  I feel that's what missions have mainly become anyway in recent years....keep the youth in the church and get them through the years they may wander away.  Send them on a mission early, get them home and into a temple marriage and start having kids.  This locks them more securely to the church (not always of course).

Missions have become less about converting and more about retaining.  At least that's what I see.

[stemelbow]

38 minutes ago, Robert F. Smith said:

So you don't blame shifts in societal patterns of behavior?  That is the infantilization and feminization of the larger society.  I am thinking primarily of America in that, but it may be a worldwide phenomenon, and that Mormons get swept up in that devolution along with everyone else (to a greater or lesser extent).

yes societal patterns and behavior shift.  It is the job of the leaders to adjust.  They simply haven't been able to.  They are behind the times in nearly every way, it seems to me.  

38 minutes ago, Robert F. Smith said:

However, you apparently see this as merely part of a larger pattern of modern problems of all sorts, without the Church being able to deal with them in some effective way.  What are those other holes in the dike which you see threatening the stability and effectiveness of the LDS Church?

Tons.  I don't know that I can list them here.  

[clarkgoble]

17 minutes ago, Gray said:

In my mind service should be modeled after the Peace Corps humanitarian mission. Not the easy LDS ward service projects where you go over and mow someone's lawn or help someone move or clean up a cemetery.

There are service missionaries who do things more akin to the Peace Corps. My understanding is that this last year there was a plan to move more missionaries into such service areas rather than proselytizing. I don't know if that's going on though. My personal guess, perhaps misinformed, is that the Church is still trying to find a one size fits all approach and that's not working. I suspect eventually they'll simply arrive at very different forms of missionary work by region. We'll have the "First World" (for lack of a better term) of Europe, US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and perhaps parts of Mexico, Argentina and Chile. There will be an Africa region with a completely different focus and lessons. Then there will be Asia. Then there will be underdeveloped Latin America. We're not there yet but I suspect the incentives will drive the Church to such a model.

My guess as well is that the Church will eventually decide that seeing missionary work in terms of retention of the missionary just isn't working and start seeing it primarily in pragmatic terms for service. That in turn will lead to more focus on allowing older people to go on missions. i.e. leverage more of the 25 - 45 year old population - particularly the unmarried population and particularly people already with mission experience. (I didn't get married until 35. If someone had asked me to go on a limited six month mission when 29 would I have? I'd probably have seriously considered it.)

I suspect there will be a lot of growing pains getting to the above though.

Edited January 10, 2018 by clarkgoble

[Exiled]

40 minutes ago, Robert F. Smith said:

Going on a mission, into the military, etc.  Where are the places in which men can prove themselves?  Where is the true initiation process to be found?  In pledging to a Greek fraternity  on campus, where getting drunk is the mode of initiation?  Is that really all we are left with?  When women are the only one's left with a shred of manhood, what does that say about our society?

I like the right of passage idea and I benefitted from going in terms of gaining some life skills, learning a language, seeing a different culture. Perhaps the message needs to be changed? Success breeds excitement and positive feedback and maybe a new message would jumpstart these millennials?

[Gray]

19 minutes ago, Duncan said:

how do they operate?

Here's an example:

https://www.peacecorps.gov/volunteer/what-volunteers-do/

 

Quote

Agriculture Volunteers work with small-scale farmers and families to increase food security and production and adapt to climate change while promoting environmental conservation. 

They introduce farmers to techniques that prevent soil erosion, reduce the use of harmful pesticides, and replenish the soil. They work alongside farmers on integrated projects that often combine vegetable gardening, livestock management, agroforestry, and nutrition education.

 

It doesn't have to be exactly that, but it's immersive and aimed at making the greatest possible impact on poor communities.

[Gray]

23 minutes ago, CA Steve said:

I think it could be both. We could  be involved in both large and small projects and have the ability to accommodate both the needs of the local members and larger community. We could even have an at-large group that was sent into high needs areas where natural or man made disasters occurred. Can you imagine the what it would do for the image of the church for this group to be consistently seen showing up at disaster scenes?

 

I think very quickly we'd become known for our humanitarian service.

[stemelbow]

Reviewing some of our past discussion on this topic I found this thread where Des News reported there being 62,000 missionaries out there.  I

It appears the number of missionaries dropped from the end of 2016 to mid 2017 some 8,000 missionaries.

But in the past 6 months has climbed back up 5,000.  I'm assuming after kids graduate in the summer, up through September we'll see the biggest surge of missionaries going out.  It looks like this past year surged us around 5,000.

 

[RevTestament]

3 hours ago, Gray said:

Let's be honest - knocking doors and making street contacts is pretty demoralizing too.

Actually my oldest son preferred it, and said he found the most investigators that way. The only "magic" was that he prayed frequently together with his partner. They would each look at a map and pray about where they should go each time they went out. They typically went to a place they both selected after praying. He found many investigators this way. Once they found an investigator, they would transfer him again, and assign other missionaries to teach the investigator. If there was anything frustrating about it, it was that he didn't get to stay, teach, and baptize the investigator(s). It seems his missionary president was using my son to do the work of finding investigators for other missionaries. We're talking northern California over 2015-1017. Perhaps the rising generation is lacking in faith, but there is no lack of work to be done. 

[rongo]

11 minutes ago, Gray said:

Here's an example:

https://www.peacecorps.gov/volunteer/what-volunteers-do/

It doesn't have to be exactly that, but it's immersive and aimed at making the greatest possible impact on poor communities.

Not that the Church version of this would be like this, but I was reminded of an article an LDS female Peace Corps volunteer wrote about her experience. Depression, anxiety, alienation, etc. are not solely an LDS mission thing . . .  

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/453429/peace-corps-volunteer-libertinism-created-hostile-work-environment

[Scott Lloyd]

7 minutes ago, stemelbow said:

Reviewing some of our past discussion on this topic I found this thread where Des News reported there being 62,000 missionaries out there.  I

It appears the number of missionaries dropped from the end of 2016 to mid 2017 some 8,000 missionaries.

But in the past 6 months has climbed back up 5,000.  I'm assuming after kids graduate in the summer, up through September we'll see the biggest surge of missionaries going out.  It looks like this past year surged us around 5,000.

 

You apparently didn't read that Deseret News article thoroughly:

Quote

The LDS Church currently counts some 68,500 current full-time missionaries — however, about 6,500 missionaries are “senior” missionaries — older individuals and couples who are serving and who will not participate in the survey.

 

[stemelbow]

2 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said:

You apparently didn't read that Deseret News article thoroughly:

 

that's right I forgot about that addition.  Thanks.

[Robert F. Smith]

37 minutes ago, stemelbow said:

.......................Tons.  I don't know that I can list them here.  

Maybe you could list the two or three most important leaks in the dike.

Also do you think that a shift to service missions would be better (as discussed in this thread)?

[Robert F. Smith]

5 minutes ago, rongo said:

Not that the Church version of this would be like this, but I was reminded of an article an LDS female Peace Corps volunteer wrote about her experience. Depression, anxiety, alienation, etc. are not solely an LDS mission thing . . .  

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/453429/peace-corps-volunteer-libertinism-created-hostile-work-environment

Culture shock is an ever present factor in nearly all such cases, missions, Peace Corps, etc.  Everyone gets homesick, has a hard time with different languages, traditions, body language, etc., but eventually adjust.  A good learning experience for everybody.

The guy who invented the Peace Corps idea was a Mormon, by the way.  A Harvard graduate.

[blueglass]

29 minutes ago, clarkgoble said:

My guess as well is that the Church will eventually decide that seeing missionary work in terms of retention of the missionary just isn't working and start seeing it primarily in pragmatic terms for service. That in turn will lead to more focus on allowing older people to go on missions. i.e. leverage more of the 25 - 45 year old population - particularly the unmarried population and particularly people already with mission experience. (I didn't get married until 35. If someone had asked me to go on a limited six month mission when 29 would I have? I'd probably have seriously considered it.)

I suspect there will be a lot of growing pains getting to the above though.

It's a good idea, to offer more options for missionary term of service from 6mo to 2 years.   Would more young men serve if given the option to serve for 1yr, or 18mo instead of 2 without stigma?   My mother served for 2 years which was common for sisters in the 1970's.

[CA Steve]

33 minutes ago, Gray said:

I think very quickly we'd become known for our humanitarian service.

Think about it. When people see the missionaries coming now the first thought for many is to turn off the lights and not answer the door. Instead we would have people walking up to them to thank them for their service. That is when a quick testimony would be the most effective. The missionary might explain how he or she is spending two years on a Mormon mission serving the Lord by working to improve the lives of others and to learn for himself or herself what God wants them to do. That would be the way to introduce people to the gospel.

 

Also the church could offer a variety of different types of missions, some of which would offer vocational training. Missionaries could come home with the additional bonus of learning and getting experience in a trade.

If this were successful enough, it could even be expanded to allow non members to participate, similar to how non members are allowed to attend BYU. How often do we see someone go to BYU as a non member and leave as a member? That same effect would happen on a service mission to a non-member.

 

Win win.

Edited January 10, 2018 by CA Steve

[Robert F. Smith]

1 hour ago, The Nehor said:

Until you have killed another man and eaten his heart you are not truly a man.

Yes, and that applies either literally or figuratively.