Does This Mean the Elderly and Frail Should Stop Attending Church as of Right Now?

[The Nehor]

7 minutes ago, Tacenda said:

Nehor, you of course know I was being sarcastic, you were as well. But come to think of it, sometimes I'm very optimistic because I'm scared if I'm not thinking this will all just go away soon.

I apologize if I go too far.

There is a part of me that is a disaster voyeur hoping things will get worse:

It is probably the ADHD. It might be horrible but at least it will be interesting. I keep that impulse confined mostly to my twisted sense of humor.

[Tacenda]

45 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said:

I’m 65. If somebody told me I should stay home from church because I’m old and frail, I’d laugh in his face. 
 

What makes me frail? The fact that I only lift weights three days a week instead of four? That I don’t do cardio all seven days in the week?

Just now I mentioned to my husband that the elderly are getting it quicker than everyone and wondering if they wore masks at the place my MIL is. And somehow it came across to him that I thought we were too young to get it. And then he said, "What do ya mean, we're almost 60"! Boy that sure hit me hard, here I was thinking I was so young. 

Edited March 11, 2020 by Tacenda

[Tacenda]

29 minutes ago, The Nehor said:

I apologize if I go too far.

There is a part of me that is a disaster voyeur hoping things will get worse:

It is probably the ADHD. It might be horrible but at least it will be interesting. I keep that impulse confined mostly to my twisted sense of humor.

Nah, it's how people deal with stuff!! Your coping mechanism, haha!

Edited March 11, 2020 by Tacenda

[Robert F. Smith]

13 hours ago, bsjkki said:

I interpret this as saying those who are elderly should avoid group gatherings such as church. As well as those with medical conditions or who are immune compromised. Am I wrong? https://www.theepochtimes.com/head-of-nih-says-those-with-health-issues-must-right-now-suspend-travel-practice-social-distancing_3265989.html

“If you look at the people who wind up getting into serious difficulty and even dying, that’s very heavily weighted toward individuals with underlying conditions, particularly the elderly,” Fauci told the morning news show on Monday.

“That’s the reason why we have been saying lately how important it is to protect those vulnerable people by making sure no matter where they are right now, not a month from now, but right now, the people with the underlying conditions need to distance themselves from crowds, not travel, not get on long air flights and certainly not get on a cruise ship,” he added.

He said that generally, he would define elderly as 65 years old or above, but “it’s a really wide range.”

“You might have somebody who is 70 years old that’s healthy and you may have somebody that’s 60 that’s weak and frail,” he said.

He also urged people to think about “not putting yourself in a situation, whatever that might be, that might increase the risk, given your situation.”

Now, he is doubling down on his message, saying that it’s not longer just advice, but that people should be acting on the message immediately.

Tony Fauci is exactly right.  The pandemic is still in its early stages.  Best to be very cautious.  The Chinese response was harsh but realistic.

[Bernard Gui]

2 hours ago, Scott Lloyd said:

If you can be patient, there’s less than 11 years left in AOC’s 12-year, climate change doomsday clock. 
 

Of course, she’s walked that back now and said it was just a joke. I dunno. She looked and sounded deadly serious at the time. 
 

Maybe I just have the intellect of a sea sponge. 

Even a sea sponge can be right once in a while. 
 

We have passed many doomsdays that came and went unnoticed. AOC’s will be just another one.
 

On the other hand, the reckoning did eventually come to the Nephites. 

[Scott Lloyd]

11 hours ago, The Nehor said:

Elderly and/or frail?

So what are you saying? That people over 60 should sequester themselves at home even if they are in robust health? 

[MustardSeed]

3 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said:

So what are you saying? That people over 60 should sequester themselves at home even if they are in robust health? 

I’m nearly there and am being very conservative.  Do what you want! There’s no law. 

[Rain]

12 hours ago, Scott Lloyd said:

I’m 65. If somebody told me I should stay home from church because I’m old and frail, I’d laugh in his face. 
 

What makes me frail? The fact that I only lift weights three days a week instead of four? That I don’t do cardio all seven days in the week?

I read somewhere yesterday, but am unable to find it right this minute, but I've seen it stated a little better than "65".  That 65 was appromately the age, but just as important was the "and" as in if you were "60 and frail' then you should be more cautious, but if you are "70 and healthy" you don't need to be as concerned.

 

[Ahab]

23 hours ago, bsjkki said:

I interpret this as saying those who are elderly should avoid group gatherings such as church. As well as those with medical conditions or who are immune compromised. Am I wrong? https://www.theepochtimes.com/head-of-nih-says-those-with-health-issues-must-right-now-suspend-travel-practice-social-distancing_3265989.html

“If you look at the people who wind up getting into serious difficulty and even dying, that’s very heavily weighted toward individuals with underlying conditions, particularly the elderly,” Fauci told the morning news show on Monday.

“That’s the reason why we have been saying lately how important it is to protect those vulnerable people by making sure no matter where they are right now, not a month from now, but right now, the people with the underlying conditions need to distance themselves from crowds, not travel, not get on long air flights and certainly not get on a cruise ship,” he added.

He said that generally, he would define elderly as 65 years old or above, but “it’s a really wide range.”

“You might have somebody who is 70 years old that’s healthy and you may have somebody that’s 60 that’s weak and frail,” he said.

...

"

He also urged people to think about “not putting yourself in a situation, whatever that might be, that might increase the risk, given your situation.”

Now, he is doubling down on his message, saying that it’s not longer just advice, but that people should be acting on the message immediately.

Instead of trying to determine what other people should do I'm fine with just concentrating on what I plan to do and what i would say to my family and people around me.  So, for me, if I were to get the Corona virus it would probably not affect me much more than a regular cold or flu would and I would likely not die from it.  My wife, however, who I see every day, would higher risk of death if she were to get it, not so much because of her age, 60, but because of her chronic health issues including an Immunodeficiency disorder, so I need to try to keep her in mind because if I get it, even though it wouldn't affect my health all that much, it would affect her and give her another big problem to deal with.  But I can't just stay at home, I need to go to a job thing so we can keep receiving some money and keep our health benefits, and one of us has to go out and buy groceries and go to some other places to get some other things we need and want, so I have been recruited for that.  And then it's a matter of whether or not we think it is worth the risk of having our children come near us, with all of them going to public gatherings of some kind at which they might get some disease and bring it to us.  So it's a little bit complicated and not just a matter of how it would affect us, personally.  

[The Nehor]

1 hour ago, Scott Lloyd said:

So what are you saying? That people over 60 should sequester themselves at home even if they are in robust health? 

I was responding to your objection that to be elderly means being frail not suggesting a course of action. They should do what they choose to do.

At this stage it is most likely that almost everyone is going to catch this. The best way to mitigate the death toll is to spread out the cases. The big weakness will be healthcare resources. Seattle is already desperate for help. This is likely to last into Summer and possibly resurge in the Fall and that is good. Those who get very ill can require a hospital bed for 2 months or more. Having all of the most vulnerable get ill at once will almost certainly result in unnecessary deaths. I am not worried about my survival but putting off my infection might save someone else’s life. If someone decides they are amongst the most vulnerable they should take even more precautions.

I have criticized the US response but it is worth pointing out that it could be much worse:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/irans-coronavirus-problem-lot-worse-it-seems/607663/

[Scott Lloyd]

2 minutes ago, The Nehor said:

I was responding to your objection that to be elderly means being frail not suggesting a course of action. They should do what they choose to do.

At this stage it is most likely that almost everyone is going to catch this. The best way to mitigate the death toll is to spread out the cases. The big weakness will be healthcare resources. Seattle is already desperate for help. This is likely to last into Summer and possibly resurge in the Fall and that is good. Those who get very ill can require a hospital bed for 2 months or more. Having all of the most vulnerable get ill at once will almost certainly result in unnecessary deaths. I am not worried about my survival but putting off my infection might save someone else’s life. If someone decides they are amongst the most vulnerable they should take even more precautions.

I have criticized the US response but it is worth pointing out that it could be much worse:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/irans-coronavirus-problem-lot-worse-it-seems/607663/

Where are you getting the idea almost everyone will catch it?

[The Nehor]

21 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said:

Where are you getting the idea almost everyone will catch it?

From the experts. It is infectious for a week or more before symptoms show so self-quarantining when you are ill still means most of the damage from spreading it is already done. Many stop spreading it before symptoms appear so you should be more nervous about the people who are not coughing. Even if you do go full on recluse reinfections will be ongoing for months so you have to be a dedicated hermit. Almost no one is being tested so no one knows if they are carrying it. Some are asymptomatic so they have gotten infected, passed it on, and recovered without noticing. A China or Vietnam level quarantine might help if we could pull it off but that worked in an authoritarian regime with a culture of compliance. It is laughable to imagine Americans putting up with it. Half the population still assumes it is overblown and some still think it is a hoax.

[rpn]

I read the other day that there have been no deaths of children yet, and they think it may turn out to be because their immune systems haven't been compromised yet by pollution or something.   It is also true that those with high blood pressure are particularly at risk, and diabetes dx is disproportionately identified in those who have died.   If I were in western Washington state or near the NY school that is epicenter there, I would choose to stay home from church perhaps.    But I don''t see that as needed yet where I am.  

[Calm]

1 hour ago, The Nehor said:

Many stop spreading it before symptoms appear

Because of self quarantining just in case?  Not sure of what you are saying?

[Calm]

28 minutes ago, rpn said:

diabetes dx is disproportionately identified in those who have died.

Didn’t want to hear that....did they identify if age played into that or not (daughter is diabetic, we are having her lockdown as she has a lot of other issues as well, but chances are my husband will get it and that means me and her as well).

Edited March 11, 2020 by Calm

[The Nehor]

3 minutes ago, Calm said:

Because of self quarantining just in case?  Not sure of what you are saying?

Because it becomes less contagious about the time symptoms start showing and in the tail end of having symptoms it is usually not contagious. At least that is what the data shows so far.

[mnn727]

16 hours ago, Scott Lloyd said:

I’m 65. If somebody told me I should stay home from church because I’m old and frail, I’d laugh in his face. 
 

What makes me frail? The fact that I only lift weights three days a week instead of four? That I don’t do cardio all seven days in the week?

I am 63 and after 3 surgeries (two of them major) in the last 3 years, I am frail and I have a weak immune system.

Not all are alike.

 

I also know people who will arrive at Church if they are sick --STAY HOME!!!!! The life you save may be mine.

Edited March 11, 2020 by mnn727

[bsjkki]

9 minutes ago, Calm said:

Didn’t want to hear that....did they identify if age played into that or not (daughter is diabetic, we are having her lockdown as she has a lot of other issues as well, but chances are my husband will get it and that means me and her as well).

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by COMORBIDITY:

*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on pre-existing condition. The percentage shown below does NOT represent in any way the share of deaths by pre-existing condition. Rather, it represents, for a patient with a given pre-existing condition, the risk of dying if infected by COVID-19.

PRE-EXISTING CONDITION	DEATH RATE confirmed cases	DEATH RATE all cases
Cardiovascular disease	13.2%	10.5%
Diabetes	9.2%	7.3%
Chronic respiratory disease	8.0%	6.3%
Hypertension	8.4%	6.0%
Cancer	7.6%	5.6%
no pre-existing conditions		0.9%

*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). The percentages do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by condition.

[The Nehor]

And should we die due to this silly flu,
happy day, all is right.
We then are free from this bear market too
Without our trusts we shall retire.

But if our lives are spared again to see this thing burn out in Fall
Oh how we’ll make this market swell,
Buy the dip! Buy the dip!

[Ahab]

10 minutes ago, mnn727 said:

I also know people who will arrive at Church if they are sick --STAY HOME!!!!! The life you save may be mine.

Yeah I think we should put that on our doors to our Church buildings too. 

If you are sick please go home so that you don't make someone else sick.

I have a little something but I think it's just a common cold or the "regular" flu..   A little bit of a runny nose, an occasional cough, maybe a slight fever, a bit sluggish without as much energy as I usually have.  Nothing to be afraid of.  I just hope my wife doesn't get it.

[The Nehor]

48 minutes ago, rpn said:

I read the other day that there have been no deaths of children yet, and they think it may turn out to be because their immune systems haven't been compromised yet by pollution or something.   It is also true that those with high blood pressure are particularly at risk, and diabetes dx is disproportionately identified in those who have died.   If I were in western Washington state or near the NY school that is epicenter there, I would choose to stay home from church perhaps.    But I don''t see that as needed yet where I am.  

I really doubt it is pollution. More likely it is due to robustness of the immune system or something keeping them from getting infected. There is no solid explanation. Another oddity is that men are suffering severe symptoms and fatalities at a higher rate than women with women having about a 40% lower rate of fatalities (cue discussion about impending polygamy?) and we do not have an explanation for that yet either.

it is now easier to count the number of nations with no confirmed cases than those with. It has not made inroads into many African nations but the question is whether that is due to relatively less travel or if it is because they lack the medical resources to test people.

In good news we should get a test case of how this thing reacts to heat soon. Hopefully India and the Philippines will give us hints as to whether summer might give us a reprieve.

[Calm]

43 minutes ago, The Nehor said:

good news we should get a test case of how this thing reacts to heat soon. Hopefully India and the Philippines will give us hints as to whether summer might give us a reprieve.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/03/11/coronavirus-may-have-seasonal-cycle-that-doesnt-mean-it-will-go-away-this-summer-experts-warn/

[bsjkki]

My stake cancelled Stake Conference which was schedule for this Sunday. We are still having regular meetings. 

[MiserereNobis]

18 hours ago, Scott Lloyd said:

If you can be patient, there’s less than 11 years left in AOC’s 12-year, climate change doomsday clock. 
 

Of course, she’s walked that back now and said it was just a joke. I dunno. She looked and sounded deadly serious at the time. 
 

Maybe I just have the intellect of a sea sponge. 

Hey Scott, I'm not comparing this or you to AOC, but I remember in the past you used to set timers when someone would make a prediction. Are any of those timers still going? I'd be curious to see what they were for and how long there is left. Board nostalgia, I suppose  

[Scott Lloyd]

1 hour ago, MiserereNobis said:

Hey Scott, I'm not comparing this or you to AOC, but I remember in the past you used to set timers when someone would make a prediction. Are any of those timers still going? I'd be curious to see what they were for and how long there is left. Board nostalgia, I suppose  

I’ve had a couple of device changes since then. 
 

My old iPod touch crashed, and I lost pretty much everything that wasn’t backed up on iCoud, including my countdown timers. I replaced it with another iPod touch but couldn’t recreate the timers. 
 

Then, I bought a Fitbit Versa and had to at last make the plunge into iPhone ownership, partly so I could run the Dashboard component of my Fitbit. 
 

To my delight, everything transferred seamlessly and wirelessly from the latest iPod touch to my new iPhone. I now have dozens of countdown clocks running, including one for AOC’s doomsday. She currently has 10 years, 10 months, one week and three days left before she is discredited as a dystopian prophetess. 
 

On Inauguration Day, I set one up for Donald Trump to see how much of his first four-year term he could serve out before his enemies brought him down with contrived impeachment charges (as early as Inauguration Day, I knew they’d try it). I lost that one with the crash of my first iPod, but I started another one when he had three years to go  

Needless to say, he has survived pretty well so far and only has 10 months, one week and 22 hours to go before his next Inauguration Day. 

When we changed bishops five months ago, I set one up for our new bishop’s anticipated six-year term. I showed it to him last night during our stake audit (I am an assistant ward clerk), and he laughed heartily. 

Edited March 11, 2020 by Scott Lloyd