bsjkki Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 https://m.jpost.com/ israel-pfizer-news/is-israel-or-the-uk-right-when-it-comes-to-covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness-674766/amp?__twitter_impression=true 1 Link to comment
bsjkki Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 (edited) Edited July 28, 2021 by bsjkki 1 Link to comment
Calm Posted July 28, 2021 Author Share Posted July 28, 2021 (edited) 2 hours ago, juliann said: Mandates made no difference in the rate of cases or deaths when looked at state by state. It seems common sense to wear a mask but I've seen nothing in the big picture that shows it making one whit of difference in the stats. Unless mandates show compliance rates (which would require a lot of effort if not already tracked for other reasons) and that is part of the analysis, I don’t think the info should be assumed to show whether masks themselves are effective to prevent spread. Edited July 28, 2021 by Calm 1 Link to comment
juliann Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Nope. You are thinking all or nothing. I never brought that up. I don't say much because merely pointing out how nonsensical a lot of this stuff is tends to put you into an anti-vaxxer crazy category or something. I wore masks religiously, I vaccinated at the first opportunity. But stuff should still make sense. One more time, if you do a line graph of Covid deaths/cases per whatever population, the lines go up and down at pretty much the same rate regardless of mandates, lockdowns, whatever. You can throw out all the numbers, reasons, excuses, whatever....but you still have to deal with line graphs based on CDC info. And it is pretty obvious why we never see that in media. It's damning. Loved this as a reason why masks are effective from one of your links: Quote The CDC in January 2021 conducted experiments to see how well wearing a cloth mask over a three-ply medical procedure mask and knotting the ear loops of a surgical mask and then tucking the excess material close to the face, protects against COVID-19 (here). Yup, this is the proof we have. If you do these three things you are protected. LOL!!! Nobody did that, nobody was told to do that until more recently even as the calls for buying useless cloth masks from Old Navy went out with regularity. And gee, have you seen these instructions accompanying any call for putting on those Old Navy masks again? Which is why comparative line graphs of infections have to be taken a lot more seriously than demands for ineffective masking. And I do not get why that is so hard to acknowledge. 3 hours ago, Calm said: Unless mandates show compliance rates (which would require a lot of effort if not already tracked for other reasons) and that is part of the analysis, I don’t think the info should be assumed to show whether masks themselves are effective to prevent spread. What you are saying, then, is that mask mandates don't work. 1 Link to comment
juliann Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Quote The CDC doesn’t “have good real-time reporting,” @ScottGottliebMD says. “We need to fix this, and this can be fixed.” https://cnb.cx/3BPj8rI And we wonder why people are rebelling.... 1 Link to comment
Tacenda Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 1 hour ago, juliann said: Nope. You are thinking all or nothing. I never brought that up. I don't say much because merely pointing out how nonsensical a lot of this stuff is tends to put you into an anti-vaxxer crazy category or something. I wore masks religiously, I vaccinated at the first opportunity. But stuff should still make sense. One more time, if you do a line graph of Covid deaths/cases per whatever population, the lines go up and down at pretty much the same rate regardless of mandates, lockdowns, whatever. You can throw out all the numbers, reasons, excuses, whatever....but you still have to deal with line graphs based on CDC info. And it is pretty obvious why we never see that in media. It's damning. Loved this as a reason why masks are effective from one of your links: Yup, this is the proof we have. If you do these three things you are protected. LOL!!! Nobody did that, nobody was told to do that until more recently even as the calls for buying useless cloth masks from Old Navy went out with regularity. And gee, have you seen these instructions accompanying any call for putting on those Old Navy masks again? Which is why comparative line graphs of infections have to be taken a lot more seriously than demands for ineffective masking. And I do not get why that is so hard to acknowledge. What you are saying, then, is that mask mandates don't work. I disagree! Mask mandates help with covering your teeth when you don't have floss and possible boogers in our noses. No but really, I feel secure while wearing them. I may have to pick up wearing them again. Link to comment
Calm Posted July 29, 2021 Author Share Posted July 29, 2021 (edited) 9 hours ago, juliann said: What you are saying, then, is that mask mandates don't work. No, more like mask mandates reporting doesn’t work. I just don’t think the US reports on mask mandates tell us much at all at this point to make that judgment call. It may well be that mask mandates are low performers in the States due to our culture. I have more faith in controlled lab settings when talking about what masks are capable of, but when you put them in the hands of humans and real life environments consistency goes out the window and unless controlled somehow in ways not being reported in what I have seen—which control levels I don’t see as possible in our culture when talking about communities in general and not about smaller study groups that are asked to give detailed info about their behaviour—I suspect we are getting data points that are too influenced by other variables to be useful. I think I get that you are saying since the one consistency is there is no consistency in the environment, but there is still consistency in infection rates that we can trust the virus acts in a certain way no matter what humans do to try and control it. Please let me know if I have misstated that. I can’t bring myself to agree with that as obvious, though it could be true. I will happily admit I don’t know much about statistical analysis and how variables are controlled beyond the basics, so am relying on those I believe have a good grasp on research and that is not the message I am getting from them, though lately I have just been reading vaccines studies rather than mask stuff so could have missed something important. I don’t think mask mandates work as well without significant consequences, such as fines, unless a culture is already comfortable and experienced with mask wearing. Even medical settings here in Utah I am seeing lots of staff wearing masks improperly, while most videos of the Asian countries I pay attention to, their masks are tight against their face fully covering nose and mouth, even the disposable pleated variety (which makes sense when a lot of the habit has been developed because of air pollution, which can stink and therefore often makes it easy to know if there are leaks and you tend to work harder to get a nice deal when you can feel the cough or headache or nausea coming on than when the problem is a future possibility…speaking from experience, hate inversions in Utah and wildfires in general). I still believe there is a positive effect from wearing masks based on lab info and the likelihood that enough are being cautious enough to do it effectively (maybe too much an optimist, more a starfish on the beach than a butterfly and tornadoes*** kind of person…do what you can), but an additional problem in measurement is all the other inconsistencies the States have been having because the Feds recommend…and not been doing a great job there IMO…and the States are governing in what is and isn’t allowed or enforced in terms of meetings/gatherings, masks, stores, etc. Even comparing schools because teachers can be threatened with job loss if they don’t follow the rules, so adult behaviour could be relatively consistent…and you can trust kids to be inconsistent, so that sort of makes them a constant variable of chaos…doesn’t really work because the communities in which they live may have different levels of virus in the environment, different percentages of virus variations, different levels of compliance, different weather conditions, etc. Two schools in the same community, one maskless, one masked could be useful even if it is not the same balance of adult with adult interaction as most adults experience. I have to think about if that creates enough similarity in over all environment and social behaviours and whether the youth being the largest population inside the school would limit what we could say in regards to adult exposure. Bottomline when it comes to research science, I am a snob and always have been. It was going to be my career before I walked into the reality door. ***since predicting the effect of known behaviours on the future is pretty limited even with detailed knowledge, why assume a result is going to have a significant effect or will be positive in the long run (unintended consequences)? (my personal interpretation of Lorenz’ idea…my medical history probably supports that more than the belief you can actually help that starfish, the pessimist would say chances are the next wave has it back up on the beach and suffering more because of that brief moment of relief started the process of dying all over again, prolonging its agony) Edited July 29, 2021 by Calm 1 Link to comment
bsjkki Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/cdc-mask-decision-followed-stunning-findings-from-cape-cod-beach-outbreak/ar-AAMIGS7?li=BBnb7Kz Link to comment
Calm Posted July 30, 2021 Author Share Posted July 30, 2021 (edited) The Provincetown celebration might be a bit different than what we usually think of with July 4th. After Hamba mentioned the unusual medical situation, it made me wonder if likely medication many HIV positive residents took could interfere with the vaccine and thus lead to more susceptibility and increased likelihood of showing symptoms…haven’t found anything specifically to that. (My interest is in part because I just got cortisone shots in my back for the first time and my doctor was not that good at preparing me for possible side effects and for some reason I didn’t check beforehand, so it was a bit disconcerting to learn after I had it that they could open me up more to infection, but I am guessing my two time treatment—once for each side—will be very different than regular, ongoing cortisone treatment). It is a depressing thought that what one takes to help live a normal life can open one up to unintended medical issues…a thought that is constantly on my mind due to my own love/hate relationship with what I take to survive. Made me interested in the town and I have spent a bit of time looking into medical info and general stuff, as well as what the July celebration might have been like to result in high numbers. Anyway, I am seeing some advertising that suggests social contact could be more likely to very close up and personal for many visitors. Have no clue if it would be significant as there are many typical Fourth activities as well. It looks to be a popular destination. One site referred to it as similar to Carnival, but with more families. And expect everything to be packed with people with lines everywhere. However, fireworks were canceled this year, so that might have made a difference, but sounds like still way too many opportunities for sharing virus along with fun. Haven’t been able to find a body count for this year though. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/06/29/metro/fourth-july-2021-more-parades-picnics-fewer-splashy-pyrotechnics-less-boom/ Quote Crowds — numbering more than 50,000 in years past — gather on Provincetown’s downtown streets and beaches to watch fireworks shoot from a barge in the harbor. It was a risk “not worth taking,” Venden said. As a result, July 4, 2021, for many will be more about parades and picnics, concerts, and cookouts than explosive extravaganzas. The resulting superspreader event definitely suggests that vaccinations are not a cure all, that other measures such as social distancing plus masks and just staying away from large parties of any type are still needed. I am not suggesting the Carnival side of the event means it should be ignored, just that it might not be wise to equate it with usual daily behaviour of going to work or shopping or school and therefore expect to see this infection rate to be standard. It should not drive up fear that vaccines are useless, imo. added: I would love to see reports by those infected compared to those who were not to see if they participated in more indoor or otherwise more personal activities as opposed to staying outdoors, even if in crowds, and keeping mostly with housemates or others one normally interacts with. Would help to know if such things are protective even in more extreme situations. But maybe that is just me wanting to have more control than I can given my family is out there at work and school and in the neighborhood with friends…as they should be able to be. I keep seeing ads for Utah County Fair. Had fun there one year when my grandson won the pig wrestling contest for his age group…it was a four man team, but the rest were hesitant and he got in and got it done by the time they decided to move in…he was so amped afterwards, but trying hard to be cool about it. Around 7 or 8 iirc. Picked up some cool rocks for our collection as well. I get wistful and think ‘maybe this year’ when I have seen ads in the past and in fact, this year was thinking ‘hey it is outdoors for the most part, we could keep to those, and it wasn’t packed when we went, might be something the family could go to this year’ (we are all vaccinated but the youngest)…but no, not happening. We will stick to just us parties at home. Edited July 30, 2021 by Calm Link to comment
pogi Posted July 30, 2021 Share Posted July 30, 2021 (edited) On 7/28/2021 at 6:37 PM, juliann said: Yup, this is the proof we have. If you do these three things you are protected. LOL!!! Not really. We have substantial evidence that masks (even common fabric masks) work. I have also posted several studies previously which showed that mandates work too. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/masking-science-sars-cov2.html Edited July 30, 2021 by pogi Link to comment
pogi Posted July 30, 2021 Share Posted July 30, 2021 (edited) We just had 1,100 cases today in Utah. The hospitals are filling up again.. Get vaccinated and put your masks on people. Simple stuff. Save your life. Prevent long haulers. Do your civic duty, mandate or not. Don't go to church without a mask or vaccine. There are children there - MY KIDS! I don't want them getting sick. Up to 50 percent of kids are experiencing symptoms of long-haulers. Protect them. They can't get the vaccine. Some can't wear masks. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7927578/ Edited July 30, 2021 by pogi 2 Link to comment
Kenngo1969 Posted July 30, 2021 Share Posted July 30, 2021 Any word on when we might get vaccines for variants? Link to comment
The Nehor Posted July 30, 2021 Share Posted July 30, 2021 16 minutes ago, Kenngo1969 said: Any word on when we might get vaccines for variants? So far the existing vaccines seem pretty effective against the new variants though Delta seems to break through a little more but cases are almost always mild when this happens. The nightmare scenario is a mutation that gets around vaccines mostly or entirely. At that point the lockdowns come back or they don’t (with a higher death count). Link to comment
Kenngo1969 Posted July 30, 2021 Share Posted July 30, 2021 15 minutes ago, The Nehor said: So far the existing vaccines seem pretty effective against the new variants though Delta seems to break through a little more but cases are almost always mild when this happens. The nightmare scenario is a mutation that gets around vaccines mostly or entirely. At that point the lockdowns come back or they don’t (with a higher death count). 15 minutes ago, The Nehor said: So far the existing vaccines seem pretty effective against the new variants though Delta seems to break through a little more but cases are almost always mild when this happens. The nightmare scenario is a mutation that gets around vaccines mostly or entirely. At that point the lockdowns come back or they don’t (with a higher death count). I'm not doubting what you say, but, frankly, I would prefer to hear it from someone else. Do you have a source? Link to comment
Calm Posted July 30, 2021 Author Share Posted July 30, 2021 (edited) Pfizer said a third dose seems to get effectiveness for Delta back up, I think I or someone else already posted that info. There is some contradiction stuff coming out of Israel, but my guess is because they were gung-ho and got people vaccinated as early as possible and thus the first to need boosters generally. Stuff is in the process of being published, so it may take a bit to get the original info rather than interpretations. I may do some surfing tonight and get some stuff up, but bsjkki is keeping up pretty well with the new stuff as it is available. I am not in a research mood tonight. Sister is here visiting, daughter’s birthday this weekend, dog is passing bladder stones and we are trying out diapers for her, so more in Family Mode right now. Edited July 30, 2021 by Calm Link to comment
pogi Posted July 30, 2021 Share Posted July 30, 2021 (edited) I really like what Mitt Romney says here. Excellent point. Pro life? Get vaccinated! Wear a mask! https://www.ksl.com/article/50214336/does-being-pro-life-mean-getting-covid-19-vaccine-gop-sen-mitt-romney-thinks-so Edited July 30, 2021 by pogi 2 Link to comment
Calm Posted July 30, 2021 Author Share Posted July 30, 2021 (edited) Ken, Here is a good summary on Delta updated six days ago, talks about more mild cases with vaccination. used data available up till July 22. https://health.ucdavis.edu/coronavirus/covid-19-information/delta-variant.html Are you wanting info about the potential for more dangerous variants in the future? And are you looking for anything specific otherwise, like medical journal studies? Edited July 30, 2021 by Calm Link to comment
Calm Posted July 30, 2021 Author Share Posted July 30, 2021 (edited) Quote However, experts say early symptoms associated with the Delta variant have shifted slightly compared to the original strain of the virus. “Delta seems to be more likely to cause stuffy nose, sore throat, and headache, while the original strain caused more cough, shortness of breath, and loss of taste and smell,” says Richard Watkins, M.D., an infectious disease physician and professor of internal medicine at the Northeast Ohio Medical University https://www.prevention.com/health/a37130094/delta-variant-symptoms-covid-19/ Quote Most breakthrough infections do not cause disease—they are without symptoms,” Dr. Adalja says. “The ones that cause symptoms are generally very mild.” If you do have symptoms as a fully vaccinated person, though, it would likely “feel like a mild cold,” Dr. Schaffner says. “Those breakthrough infections don’t progress. The vaccine prevents that from happening.” That’s because, in those who have received the vaccine, the immune system has already been primed to recognize and fight the virus; antibodies are quick to get to work, staving off serious illness before it can begin My brother had the rarer case of it getting worse even though vaccinated, but he got the cocktail and that appears to have controlled it and he is almost back to normal. He has an autoimmune disorder, so that is likely why it was worse for him (he would feel decent in the morning, but awful by later in the day and it was getting worse after a week). I should see when he got the vaccine. It was Pfizer, I did ask him that. Edited July 30, 2021 by Calm 1 Link to comment
bsjkki Posted July 30, 2021 Share Posted July 30, 2021 (edited) They made this article free. https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/07/29/cdc-mask-guidance/ *CDC slide presentation from article. https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/cdc-breakthrough-infections/94390e3a-5e45-44a5-ac40-2744e4e25f2e/ Edited July 30, 2021 by bsjkki 1 Link to comment
Calm Posted July 30, 2021 Author Share Posted July 30, 2021 (edited) Here’s another, excellent for summarizing current questions, but does not provide references… Quote I think we really need to better define what we mean by breakthrough infections. That’s really a catch-all for people who might have an infection with no, or very mild, symptoms, all the way to somebody who might end up in the ICU, or even dead. What concerns me is breakthrough disease — people who have significant symptoms, who are struggling to breathe, who are ending up in the hospital, and we really haven’t seen breakthrough disease with the vaccines https://www.statnews.com/2021/07/23/how-concerned-should-we-be-about-breakthrough-coronavirus-infections-one-expert-weighs-in/ Quote The second reason that we really want to be tracking breakthrough infections is for what we call genomic surveillance, which is where we look at new variants that are starting to emerge and what do those look like? You’re more likely to find new emerging variants among people who have breakthrough infections. We’re sort of flying blind with respect to that, because we’re not assessing those breakthrough infections. Quote I think, unfortunately, with the rise of Delta, which is about a thousand times more infectious than the original strains of the virus, we really do need to think about layering protections. And so what are those layers? Vaccination. But some of the other layers that we should consider would be masking indoors when you’re outside of your household bubble, optimizing ventilation in the home — just opening your window works really well. It works even better than many of those units that you can buy to filter the air. I think people really underestimate the power of opening windows. And finally, socializing outdoors as much as possible to minimize your risk. Those would be the things that I think we do need to be thinking about. At the beginning of the pandemic, the CDC said that a close contact was somebody that you’re indoors with unmasked for 15 minutes or more. The equivalent of that with the Delta variant is not 15 minutes, it’s one second Heartbreaking because it doesn’t have to be: Quote It’s going to be years before this is over. I think what really worries me as somebody who, for the better part of my career, worked in HIV and tuberculosis, those are pandemics. You’re looking at about 3 million or so people dying from TB a year. A similar number of people dying from HIV per year. And that’s something that’s been going on for decades. And so I think this is going to become another disease of the poor and marginalized as the pandemic continues to evolve. Edited July 30, 2021 by Calm Link to comment
pogi Posted July 30, 2021 Share Posted July 30, 2021 Just now, bsjkki said: They made this article free. https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/07/29/cdc-mask-guidance/ I literally had the link copied and was just about to post it. Despite what some politicians and others claim, the change in mask recommendations is based in science. 1 Link to comment
bsjkki Posted July 30, 2021 Share Posted July 30, 2021 I have this same frustration. https://www.medpagetoday.com/opinion/vinay-prasad/93803 Link to comment
Calm Posted July 30, 2021 Author Share Posted July 30, 2021 (edited) 16 minutes ago, bsjkki said: I have this same frustration. https://www.medpagetoday.com/opinion/vinay-prasad/93803 I love it when someone agrees with me. Quote Comparing places that implemented restrictions to those that did not is a fool's errand. The confounding variables abound: political valence, pre-intervention trends, other behavioral changes, and a host of other differences that are not easily adjusted for. I was disappointed in the article because while I think the criticism is valid to a great extent, no suggestions about what could be done to get decent science on real world application was offered. Edited July 30, 2021 by Calm 1 Link to comment
Danzo Posted July 30, 2021 Share Posted July 30, 2021 4 hours ago, pogi said: Up to 50 percent of kids are experiencing symptoms of long-haulers. Protect them. They can't get the vaccine. Some can't wear masks. And statements like these are why people don't trust public health officials. Anyone who spends any time around children knows that half of them aren't experiencing long haul covid. Link to comment
Calm Posted July 30, 2021 Author Share Posted July 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, Danzo said: . Anyone who spends any time around children knows that half of them aren't experiencing long haul covid. It is not all kids, it is those that get sick: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7927578/ Quote Evidence from the first study of long covid in children suggests that more than half of children aged between 6 and 16 years old who contract the virus have at least one symptom lasting more than 120 days, with 42.6 per cent impaired by these symptoms during daily activities. These interim results are based on periodic assessments of 129 children in Italy who were diagnosed with covid-19 between March and November 2020 at the Gemelli University Hospital in Rome (medRxiv, doi.org/fv9t). The UK Office for National Statistics's latest report estimates that 12.9 per cent of UK children aged 2 to 11, and 14.5 per cent of children aged 12 to 16, still have symptoms five weeks after their first infection. Almost 500,000 UK children have tested positive for covid-19 since March 2020. Most medical bodies say it normally takes a few days or weeks to recover from covid-19, and that most will make a full recovery within 12 weeks. UK advocacy group Long Covid Kids says that it currently has details of 1200 children with long covid from 890 families in England. “And that number has been rising quickly,” says founder Sammie Mcfarland. “Not one has returned to their previous health, and most are unable to do their normal activities.” 1 Link to comment
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