Bernard Gui Posted August 1, 2021 Posted August 1, 2021 I wonder what the Omicron and Epsilon variants will be like. Maybe one of us will get to be the Omega Man.
pogi Posted August 1, 2021 Posted August 1, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, bluebell said: I think we will be asked to wear one again in Utah. I doubt they would make it mandatory except in very liberal counties. If hospitals are overrun again, I suspect that mandates will come back. Governor Cox is pretty reasonable about masks. I just wish he would be more preventative rather than reflexive. In Florida, they are no longer doing elective surgeries in some hospitals again due to Covid. If it gets bad enough, mandates will return (not in Florida though). Businesses are already taking the lead. 1 hour ago, bluebell said: I don't think the church in Utah will imply it's mandatory again either, mostly because most people wouldn't do it this time. Why do you think most people wouldn't do it this time? I think most Utahns are pretty good at following their local and area leaders. 1 hour ago, bluebell said: They don't see a reason too anymore. Are you talking about church leaders or members? It seems that we have been given abundant reason from scientists, public health professionals, and from the church itself. Quote An apostle said Monday that wearing a face covering during the pandemic is “a sign of Christlike love,” adding to numerous statements supporting masks made over the past nine months by leaders of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. Loving one’s neighbor as oneself since the arrival of COVID-19 includes wearing a mask, said Elder Dale G. Renlund of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles. “As it relates to this pandemic, especially in temples, that means social distancing, wearing a mask and not gathering in large groups,” he said. “These steps demonstrate our love for others, and provide us a measure of protection. Wearing a face covering is a sign of Christlike love for our brothers and sisters. COVID-19 is serious. “Sadly, responses to the pandemic have been politicized and contentious. Ours, need not be,” he said in the video. Church leaders began encouraging mask use even before the World Health Organization declared a pandemic on March 11. Since then, they have repeated that encouragement continuously while requiring masks in some settings and modeling the use of face coverings themselves. • On June 24, Elder Randy D. Funk, a General Authority Seventy, represented the church in an interfaith appeal to wear masks in Utah: “We, the under-signed faith community leaders, appeal to people of faith all over the state to wear masks and practice physical distancing, sacrificing a small measure of comfort for the sake of saving lives. We recall that the greatest commandment is to love God, and the second is like unto it, to love one’s neighbor as oneself. One cannot claim to love one’s neighbor while deliberately putting them at risk.” • On July 10, the Utah Area Presidency sent an email to all church members in the state asking them to wear face coverings when in public. “A growing chorus of medical authorities has confirmed that the simple wearing of a face covering when in public and when social distancing is not possible will significantly reduce the spread of COVID-19,” said the email from three General Authority Seventies. “This is true both indoors and outdoors. We note with appreciation the care exhibited by our members in returning to sacrament meetings wearing face masks. Now we ask all Latter-day Saints in the Utah Area to be good citizens by wearing face coverings when in public. Doing so will help promote the health and general welfare of all.” The email was released to the public by the church, emphasizing that it was prepared and sent under authority from the First Presidency and Quorum of the Twelve. https://www.deseret.com/faith/2020/12/7/22158497/mormon-lds-church-masks-covid-19-coronavirus-christlike-love-pandemic-apostle-renlund 1 hour ago, bluebell said: In anti-mask people's minds, mask mandates haven't produced a positive result, and those who did wear one but despised it and thought it was useless, will be even more convinced that they were right if requests to wear masks comes back. The church doesn't seem to be concerned about what anti-maskers think. It is beyond clear where the church stands with masks. The question remains, why then aren't members wearing them when the CDC recommends them, clearly demonstrating risk even with vaccinated individuals, and the church has "continuously" endorsed and recommended them? I don't think that most members are "anti-maskers", so it is a little confusing to me as to why they have to wait to be commanded in all things. Edited August 1, 2021 by pogi
pogi Posted August 1, 2021 Posted August 1, 2021 19 minutes ago, Bernard Gui said: I wonder what the Omicron and Epsilon variants will be like. Maybe one of us will get to be the Omega Man. It is a sobering prospect of what might be. Can you imagine if the Delta variant was the original, with an immunonaive public and before vaccines? With as bad as it has been, we still got lucky! Who knows how lucky we will continue to be. We hope for the best. The real test will be if we as a people will be willing to evolve in practices as the virus itself evolves, or if we are going to stand our ground resisting change with masks and other best practices as they become known.
bsjkki Posted August 1, 2021 Posted August 1, 2021 (edited) Study out of Singapore. Breakthrough cases quickly decrease viral load over unvaccinated. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261295v1.full.pdf Edited August 1, 2021 by bsjkki 3
ksfisher Posted August 1, 2021 Posted August 1, 2021 2 hours ago, Bernard Gui said: I wish that streaming would become policy. So many folks who are home-bound now have the opportunity to attend sacrament meeting. It would be sad to take that away. I think this would be good a good thing for the truly home bound. I don’t think, however, that it should be an option for people who just don’t feel like going to church on a particular Sunday.
bsjkki Posted August 1, 2021 Posted August 1, 2021 (edited) Case studies out of Wisconsin. Viral loads tested were about the same between vaccinated and unvaccinated but this doesn’t show status over time. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.31.21261387v1.full.pdf Edited August 1, 2021 by bsjkki 1
pogi Posted August 1, 2021 Posted August 1, 2021 (edited) 51 minutes ago, bsjkki said: Study out of Singapore. Breakthrough cases quickly decrease viral load over unvaccinated. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261295v1.full.pdf Thanks for sharing. That is interesting. To help people understand this, "Ct value" stands for "cycle threshold" and is indicative of how many times the genetic material of the virus needs to be copied before it is identified in a PCR test. Generally speaking, the higher the CT value, the lower the viral load, and the lower the Ct value, the higher the viral load. Important points to consider when interpreting this data: 1) Non-vaccinated people are considered non-infectious 10 to 14 days after onset of symptoms. the viral load is generally low enough at that point to prevent infecting others. 2) One noted limitation of this study is that serological results were only available on average 2 days after illness began. That means that we don't have data on viral load for the first 2 days of infection, nor for the 2 days before symptom onset - but we do know however, that people can have a high viral load and be contagious several days before symptoms even begin. 3) day 5 on this graph is when the viral load of vaccinated individuals drops below non-vaccinated individuals, it doesn't mean that they are not still infectious beyond the point. It is unclear at what point they become infectious. But if we know that non-vaccinated people are generally not infectious after day 14, we can correlate that point with vaccinated people and see that the viral load for non-vaccinated people on day 14 is about equivalent to the viral load of vaccinated people on about day 9 (which is really day 11 of illness - see note 2). If they are also infectious 2 days previous to symptom onset (as non-vaccinated people are) then that means that vaccinated people could be potentially infectious for 13 days +. 4) Up until about day 5 of symptoms, it appears that vaccinated individuals actually have a higher viral load, and are thus more infectious than non-vaccinated. So, in interpreting this data, an average non-vaccinated person is potentially infectious for 14 days + 2 days pre-symptom onset for a total of 16 days on average. It appears that vaccinated people are likely infectious for around 13 days on average. That is only a difference of about 3 days. Anything beyond that point, both groups are considered non-infectious. Conclusion - this study is very strong evidence to support mask wearing by all, vaccinated or not. Edited August 1, 2021 by pogi 1
bsjkki Posted August 1, 2021 Posted August 1, 2021 https://www.hmbreview.com/opinion/matters_of_opinion/now-risks-of-further-isolation-are-worse-than-covid/article_3f02540e-efcf-11eb-b48d-837249cc878e.html?fbclid=IwAR3B6egCeAswtmevAVRjLgjmZRh79bLXlPrQbbED7ytDn3CeLK9Ee1wkPLw#tncms-source=signup An opinion piece many might disagree with.
Calm Posted August 1, 2021 Author Posted August 1, 2021 (edited) 20 hours ago, bsjkki said: https://www.hmbreview.com/opinion/matters_of_opinion/now-risks-of-further-isolation-are-worse-than-covid/article_3f02540e-efcf-11eb-b48d-837249cc878e.html?fbclid=IwAR3B6egCeAswtmevAVRjLgjmZRh79bLXlPrQbbED7ytDn3CeLK9Ee1wkPLw#tncms-source=signup An opinion piece many might disagree with. Quote so it doesn’t make sense for us to stay afraid and disrupt important events in our lives. For me it is often the all or nothing attitude that gets attached too often from what I am seeing to realistic (imo) limits. If kids don’t need to stay home from school, no other gathering of people needs to be limited either in that view. In my view, small family gathers are important, meaningful events and therefore should be allowed with reasonable caution, but that does not translate into Carnivals, Festivals, and other massive events being opened. If we can gather again as a faith community, people assume we should lose the masks, spacing, shorter times, and let’s start singing as well. We appear to be on a timeline based on automatic removal of limits once the first domino falls rather than taking stock for each and every step up in exposure. I agree we need to do what is necessary to prevent isolation, but partying is in a different category for me than education and while large family reunions are fun, in most cases smaller ones can fill the need. Habits and traditions can be adapted, they are not self justifying simply by existing. Edited August 2, 2021 by Calm 1
bluebell Posted August 1, 2021 Posted August 1, 2021 (edited) 3 hours ago, pogi said: If hospitals are overrun again, I suspect that mandates will come back. Governor Cox is pretty reasonable about masks. I just wish he would be more preventative rather than reflexive. In Florida, they are no longer doing elective surgeries in some hospitals again due to Covid. If it gets bad enough, mandates will return (not in Florida though). Businesses are already taking the lead. Mask mandates are hated by large groups here. To the extent that at the end of the last school year our school district made it illegal to mandate masks in school for the upcoming year. I'm already seeing my vocal anti-mask friends on facebook starting the "fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice..." stuff, only they are worse now than they were last year because they believe that they have proof that masks only prolong the curve rather than flatten it. And that doesn't even take into consideration how they are using the idea of new mask mandates to push how useless the vaccine is. I know a ton of people who only got the vaccine because they believed they wouldn't have to wear masks anymore. Try pushing masks and a vaccine that they don't trust onto this group and they are going to use the mask mandates as a reason not to get vaccinated. I have friends on facebook who already are. Because I think that governments want this group of people to get vaccinated, I don't think they will turn to mask mandates as quickly. They feed into the belief that the vaccines don't work anyway. Quote Why do you think most people wouldn't do it this time? I think most Utahns are pretty good at following their local and area leaders. Because they are tired of them and they don't believe they ever did any good anyway and they see the resurgence as proof that they were right that the quickest way through the pandemic is not masks but just getting back on with normal life. Quote Are you talking about church leaders or members? Local members and leaders. Quote It seems that we have been given abundant reason from scientists, public health professionals, and from the church itself. The people who are most vocal about not wanting to wear masks, and who also aren't vaccinated, don't believe the 'abundant reasons'. Quote The church doesn't seem to be concerned about what anti-maskers think. It is beyond clear where the church stands with masks. The question remains, why then aren't members wearing them when the CDC recommends them, clearly demonstrating risk even with vaccinated individuals, and the church has "continuously" endorsed and recommended them? I don't think that most members are "anti-maskers", so it is a little confusing to me as to why they have to wait to be commanded in all things. The church didn't actually mandate masks anywhere that I'm aware of unless the government forced them too. They implied it was mandatory in some places but from all that I've heard, it wasn't enforced and people were allowed to attend without a mask, no questions asked. In my husband's friend's ward in Utah, the bishop went out of his way to get the anti-maskers to church by providing them the RS room to be mask free in. In my parents ward masks were never even implied to be mandatory and only about 3 people wore them. They even had the primary children singing in the chapel, shoulder to shoulder for Mother's Day, 2020. So I don't think it's true to say that the church doesn't seem to be concerned what anti-maskers think. And I also think that fewer members believe homemade masks will be very useful, especially against the delta variant, than you are aware of. Edited August 1, 2021 by bluebell 2
pogi Posted August 1, 2021 Posted August 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, bsjkki said: https://www.hmbreview.com/opinion/matters_of_opinion/now-risks-of-further-isolation-are-worse-than-covid/article_3f02540e-efcf-11eb-b48d-837249cc878e.html?fbclid=IwAR3B6egCeAswtmevAVRjLgjmZRh79bLXlPrQbbED7ytDn3CeLK9Ee1wkPLw#tncms-source=signup An opinion piece many might disagree with. A lot I agree with, a lot I don't. Unfortunately, his piece kind of misses the fact that around 1/2 the population who can be vaccinated, are not. I also think he is downplaying long covid in children. I have posted a great site/support group for long covid in kids. It lists around 30 studies worldwide which he ignores. Take a minute and read some of their real life stories. Naturally, they are trying to promote awareness. Perhaps the gentleman in this opinion piece thinks they are causing more harm than good, but I don't think awareness is harmful. Hopefully we will have a vaccine for children soon. https://www.longcovidkids.org There are other points I could address, but I will leave it at that. Wearing a mask and getting vaccinated is not sign of fear, just like wearing a seat belt is not a sign of fear. It is a sign of mature awareness and responsibility. He speaks of "going back to normal" as the baseline for not being afraid. That is nuts. That is like suggesting that reverting to not wearing seat belts (the old normal) is the healthier way to live. We need to create greater awareness so that more people take preventive measures. I hope that those who are not vaccinated do have some healthy fear...it might save their life. Understanding that fire can severely hurt you or even kill you doesn't need to lead to debilitating fear/anxiety. Perhaps instead of ignoring the risks and never discussing them, we should talk about how to emotionally cope with risk in a healthy way. It is possible. I can still drive my car without debilitating fear/anxiety while still being afraid of accidents and using every precaution to avoid them. Lets get real though, how many people are really afraid of Covid? Based on what I see everyday, very few seem to be even slightly concerned. 1
pogi Posted August 1, 2021 Posted August 1, 2021 (edited) 59 minutes ago, bluebell said: So I don't think it's true to say that the church doesn't seem to be concerned what anti-maskers think. My point is that the church is very pro mask from the highest levels of leadership. They always have been. I have no doubt that every one of the many statements, letters, and interfaith appeals to encourage mask wearing was a direct response to the influence of anti maskers in the church. They said the following being fully aware that much of the church membership are anti-maskers: Quote As it relates to this pandemic, especially in temples, that means social distancing, wearing a mask and not gathering in large groups,” he said. “These steps demonstrate our love for others, and provide us a measure of protection. Wearing a face covering is a sign of Christlike love for our brothers and sisters. COVID-19 is serious. Sadly, responses to the pandemic have been politicized and contentious. Ours, need not be. Despite the reluctance of members to wear masks and get vaccinated, the general church leadership has been unwavering in its message and stance. That is why I suggest that the church (not local leaders) don't seem to be concerned what anti-maskers think - they will always be pro-mask and pro-public health in promoting our roles and civic responsibilities, even to the point of linking it with the greatest commandment to love our neighbor. Anti-mask opinions haven't dissuaded them in the past to ask members to wear masks, so I would not be surprised one bit to see another letter asking members to wear masks. I also wouldn't be surprised to see most of the church membership to put their masks back on, just like before. The church has never rescinded the letter or recommendation, or stance on masks during the pandemic. People stopped wearing masks only because the CDC suggested it is not recommended anymore. Now that the CDC is recommending them again based upon further evidence, it seems to me that the area presidency recommendation should be in full effect still. Edited August 1, 2021 by pogi 1
Rain Posted August 2, 2021 Posted August 2, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, pogi said: A lot I agree with, a lot I don't. Unfortunately, his piece kind of misses the fact that around 1/2 the population who can be vaccinated, are not. He said 88% of those in his county have been vaccinated. From what I am seeing it looks like the population may be older than average in his county too? That would mean fewer people/children who can't be vaccinated and a higher overall vax rate. I wondered if he was only meaning to talk to his county with the piece. 1 hour ago, pogi said: I also think he is downplaying long covid in children. I have posted a great site/support group for long covid in kids. It lists around 30 studies worldwide which he ignores. Take a minute and read some of their real life stories. Naturally, they are trying to promote awareness. Perhaps the gentleman in this opinion piece thinks they are causing more harm than good, but I don't think awareness is harmful. Hopefully we will have a vaccine for children soon. https://www.longcovidkids.org There are other points I could address, but I will leave it at that. Wearing a mask and getting vaccinated is not sign of fear, just like wearing a seat belt is not a sign of fear. It is a sign of mature awareness and responsibility. He speaks of "going back to normal" as the baseline for not being afraid. That is nuts. That is like suggesting that reverting to not wearing seat belts (the old normal) is the healthier way to live. We need to create greater awareness so that more people take preventive measures. I hope that those who are not vaccinated do have some healthy fear...it might save their life. Understanding that fire can severely hurt you or even kill you doesn't need to lead to debilitating fear/anxiety. Perhaps instead of ignoring the risks and never discussing them, we should talk about how to emotionally cope with risk in a healthy way. It is possible. I can still drive my car without debilitating fear/anxiety while still being afraid of accidents and using every precaution to avoid them. Lets get real though, how many people are really afraid of Covid? Based on what I see everyday, very few seem to be even slightly concerned. Edited August 2, 2021 by Rain
bsjkki Posted August 2, 2021 Posted August 2, 2021 1 hour ago, pogi said: I also think he is downplaying long covid in children. I have posted a great site/support group for long covid in kids. It lists around 30 studies worldwide which he ignores. Did those other studies have a control group? Don’t want to read them all but this is an important distinction between studies. I had posted earlier the control group study and want to know if results have differed in other studies.
bluebell Posted August 2, 2021 Posted August 2, 2021 1 hour ago, pogi said: My point is that the church is very pro mask from the highest levels of leadership. They always have been. I have no doubt that every one of the many statements, letters, and interfaith appeals to encourage mask wearing was a direct response to the influence of anti maskers in the church. They said the following being fully aware that much of the church membership are anti-maskers: Despite the reluctance of members to wear masks and get vaccinated, the general church leadership has been unwavering in its message and stance. That is why I suggest that the church (not local leaders) don't seem to be concerned what anti-maskers think - they will always be pro-mask and pro-public health in promoting our roles and civic responsibilities, even to the point of linking it with the greatest commandment to love our neighbor. Anti-mask opinions haven't dissuaded them in the past to ask members to wear masks, so I would not be surprised one bit to see another letter asking members to wear masks. I also wouldn't be surprised to see most of the church membership to put their masks back on, just like before. The church has never rescinded the letter or recommendation, or stance on masks during the pandemic. People stopped wearing masks only because the CDC suggested it is not recommended anymore. Now that the CDC is recommending them again based upon further evidence, it seems to me that the area presidency recommendation should be in full effect still. I agree, when it comes to recommending wearing a mask. But we are talking about mandating masks, and on that topic the church does seem to care how the anti-maskers will respond to that. 1
pogi Posted August 2, 2021 Posted August 2, 2021 (edited) 33 minutes ago, bluebell said: I agree, when it comes to recommending wearing a mask. But we are talking about mandating masks, and on that topic the church does seem to care how the anti-maskers will respond to that. I was responding to this: ”I don't think the church in Utah will imply it's mandatory again either, mostly because most people wouldn't do it this time. “ It seems we were talking about the original area presidency request, not mandates. I simply disagree that they wouldn’t do it for that reason if it gets bad enough, nor do I agree that most members would ignore the request. They have profound influence and sway. Edited August 2, 2021 by pogi
pogi Posted August 2, 2021 Posted August 2, 2021 46 minutes ago, bsjkki said: Did those other studies have a control group? Don’t want to read them all but this is an important distinction between studies. I had posted earlier the control group study and want to know if results have differed in other studies. I’ll have to look into it. While control groups strengthen a study, there can be limitations to those studies as well that need to be considered. Also, other types of studies should not be automatically discounted, especially when there seems to be a consensus. I honestly don’t know how they could perform experiments with children and control groups without violating ethics, but I haven’t looked at the study yet to fully understand it.
bsjkki Posted August 2, 2021 Posted August 2, 2021 I can say from personal knowledge, Oklahoma hospitals are full. They are diverting patients out of state. 2
Calm Posted August 2, 2021 Author Posted August 2, 2021 Just now, bsjkki said: I can say from personal knowledge, Oklahoma hospitals are full. They are diverting patients out of state. Wow.
pogi Posted August 2, 2021 Posted August 2, 2021 54 minutes ago, bsjkki said: I can say from personal knowledge, Oklahoma hospitals are full. They are diverting patients out of state. That is sad. Unfortunately that will have a profound negative impact on patient care reaching far further than just Covid treatment. Not getting vaccinated can have rippling negative consequences across the board. 2
bsjkki Posted August 2, 2021 Posted August 2, 2021 1 minute ago, pogi said: That is sad. Unfortunately that will have a profound negative impact on patient care reaching far further than just Covid treatment. Not getting vaccinated can have rippling negative consequences across the board. Pediatric units are full too. Some covid but a lot of RSV. It’s supposed to be a terrible year for RSV and if Oklahoma is a precursor to what we might face, it is not looking good. 2
Chum Posted August 2, 2021 Posted August 2, 2021 (edited) 34 minutes ago, bsjkki said: Pediatric units are full too. Some covid but a lot of RSV. It’s supposed to be a terrible year for RSV and if Oklahoma is a precursor to what we might face, it is not looking good. Florida is doing it's part to create a nurturing space for Covid, one where each variant can fully develop it's potential. Edited August 2, 2021 by Chum 2
Calm Posted August 2, 2021 Author Posted August 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, Chum said: Florida is doing it's part to create a nurturing space for Covid, one where each variant can fully develop it's potential. That is very inclusive of them. 1
pogi Posted August 2, 2021 Posted August 2, 2021 35 minutes ago, bsjkki said: Pediatric units are full too. Some covid but a lot of RSV. It’s supposed to be a terrible year for RSV and if Oklahoma is a precursor to what we might face, it is not looking good. RSV and flu all but disappeared when preventive measures were being used. There are so many good reasons for people to evolve to a new normal for a while with preventative measures at church and school, etc. 2
Chum Posted August 2, 2021 Posted August 2, 2021 6 minutes ago, Calm said: That is very inclusive of them. I think FL pols view viruses as needing the same protections as a freshly fertilized egg.
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