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Covid II: Medical Info and Implications


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2 hours ago, pogi said:

Thank you Governor Herbert! 

College sports? Locker rooms, indoor practice areas and gyms....I am not comfortable saying such is safe given college kids are spreaders.  He should have gone a bit further imo, but hopefully a message is being sent. 

Edited by Calm
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I have heard quite a few individuals, including my husband saying Utah’s own numbers show hospitals are not full.  So a reminder:

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During the July surge, the highest number of COVID-19 hospitalizations was 296. As of Nov. 5th, there were 402 hospitalizations.

The following chart depicts total ICU use for all causes. Throughout the summer, ICU beds were about 70% full. However, beginning in October, 85% of ICU beds have been full. Hospitals ICU units are functionally full when they reach 85%.

https://coronavirus.utah.gov/straining-the-system-what-does-it-mean-to-have-utah-hospitals-at-capacity/
 

I don’t know if they say 85% units are functionally full, why they don’t just set hospitals with fewer ICU beds, but I am guessing they want extra because it takes time to prepare units for use so you need several to be empty at all times getting cleaned and ready for the next arrival. What percentage would depend on how much turnover and how long it takes, I am guessing. 
 

Then there is the staff issue. Hospitals may build extra beds anticipating growth but not hire staff to cover them or staff may not be available, so perhaps that percentage varies overtime depending on staffing issues. 
 

Anyone else have speculation or actual knowledge on why 85%?

Edited by Calm
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5 hours ago, Calm said:

College sports? Locker rooms, indoor practice areas and gyms....I am not comfortable saying such is safe given college kids are spreaders.  He should have gone a bit further imo, but hopefully a message is being sent. 

True, but they do have protocol in place for weekly testing and testing 72 hours before each game, and increased testing for symptomatic players.  No fans, of course.  Games have to be cancelled if enough players are on isolation.  I think they are taking it pretty seriously for the most part - they have to or it will kill their season.

I think that protocol should catch and prevent most cases. While tests aren’t perfect, they are good enough to allow increased interaction with consistent and regular use.  Some conferences are doing 3X/week testing.

Edited by pogi
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Limiting social gatherings to households for 2 weeks before thanksgiving was a great move.  $10K fine for anyone organizing large gatherings. Statewide mask mandate.  Ending most school and community sports.  Weekly testing for all college students attending 1 or more classes/week.  Increased testing and contact tracing state wide.  This is all great news.

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32 minutes ago, Bob Crockett said:

I'm not from Utah.  Can somebody tell me if Governor Herbert is the same guy who is the Chargers' quarterback?

Which one of them are you trying to dis?

Edited by ksfisher
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1 hour ago, bluebell said:

It'll be interesting to see how long the vaccine remains effective.  It sounds like Covid isn't a once and done kind of disease.

That seems relatively uncommon though or we would be hearing more reports about it, I am guessing. 

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59 minutes ago, bluebell said:

It'll be interesting to see how long the vaccine remains effective.  It sounds like Covid isn't a once and done kind of disease.

Exactly.  That is one of the uncertainties I was hinting at.  Just yesterday I had my 4th or 5th (I don't remember anymore) repeat infection.  He was infected in June and just tested positive again 2 days ago after exposure during an outbreak at his workplace.    Let's cross our fingers on long-term immunity and efficacy against different strains.  Let's also hope that there are no troubling adverse reactions once the vaccine goes out to the larger population.  We probably won't know for at least a year or more - but with the testing they have done, it should be relatively safe.  Lets hope nothing comes of the troubling mutations seen in the mink population that have infected humans in Denmark that could potentially render a vaccine useless against that strain.  

The other down-side to this vaccine is that it is unfortunately a 2 dose series, which means that a person will not be protected until 28 days after the first dose at the soonest, if they follow the exact recommended schedule. 

Best case scenario would be a single dose, 90%+ efficacy, very few adverse reactions, long term immunity, and protects against multiple strains.   

So far, we have one of those and hopefully we get more good news as this thing rolls out.  We need some good news because looking forward (at least in Utah) right now is not looking very hopeful with out current numbers.  Hopefully Herbert's new orders will change people's minds about this.  After reading from the comments (and after speaking with many on the phone), my hope is dwindling in our communities willingness to work together as a team on this however.  I try to remain optimistic, but it is hard with what I continue to see and hear.  This wont work very well without working together as a community with a sense of civic duty.    I just got off the phone with a woman who yelled at me saying that it is all fake (she has fever, chest pain, and cough and tested positive) and that even if it was real, "we are overpopulated anyway"   That is what we are up against - more than you'd think.  She was upset that she had to stay home from work saying that I am going to make her lose her home and get her fired.  I informed her that there are protections against her being fired and federal protections with pay through the FFCRA.  I informed her that on top of that, we can also have a community health worker reach out to her and guide her to community resources available to potentially help with rent/mortgage/food, etc. to help her maintain isolation.    She basically gave me the bird over the phone and hung up on me for trying to resolve her concerns and help.  Nice lady!  People are so freaking blind.  It doesn't matter what you say, or what their symptoms are, or what the test says, they CAN'T believe it is real and that they can hurt other people.   :zombie:

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38 minutes ago, Calm said:

That seems relatively uncommon though or we would be hearing more reports about it, I am guessing. 

It is fairly uncommon, but most of the population has not been exposed/infected once, so the fact that I have personally seen around 5 repeat infections, is concerning to me. 

Edited by pogi
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2 minutes ago, pogi said:

Exactly.  That is one of the uncertainties I was hinting at.  Just yesterday I had my 4th or 5th (I don't remember anymore) repeat infection.  He was infected in June and just tested positive again 2 days ago after exposure during an outbreak at his workplace.    Let's cross our fingers on long-term immunity and efficacy against different strains.  Let's also hope that there are no troubling adverse reactions once the vaccine goes out to the larger population.  We probably won't know for at least a year or more - but with the testing they have done, it should be relatively safe.  Lets hope nothing comes of the troubling mutations seen in the mink population that have infected humans in Denmark that could potentially render a vaccine useless against that strain.  

The other down-side to this vaccine is that it is unfortunately a 2 dose series, which means that a person will not be protected until 28 days after the first dose at the soonest, if they follow the exact recommended schedule. 

Sounds like those of us with chronic health problems should prepare to die, as much as we can prepare ourselves and our families for it.  At least we who know the restored gospel is true know what to expect after we die.

2 minutes ago, pogi said:

Best case scenario would be a single dose, 90%+ efficacy, very few adverse reactions, long term immunity, and protects against multiple strains.   

That sounds like wishful thinking.  Best case scenario.  We should face reality and prepare for it.

2 minutes ago, pogi said:

So far, we have one of those and hopefully we get more good news as this thing rolls out.  We need some good news because looking forward (at least in Utah) right now is not looking very hopeful with out current numbers.  Hopefully Herbert's new orders will change people's minds about this.  After reading from the comments (and after speaking with many on the phone), my hope is dwindling in our communities willingness to work together as a team on this however.  I try to remain optimistic, but it is hard with what I continue to see and hear.  This wont work very well without working together as a community with a sense of civic duty.    I just got off the phone with a woman who yelled at me saying that it is all fake (she has fever, chest pain, and cough and tested positive) and that even if it was real, "we are overpopulated anyway"   That is what we are up against - more than you'd think.  She was upset that she had to stay home from work saying that I am going to make her lose her home and get her fired.  I informed her that there are protections against her being fired and federal protections with pay through the FFCRA.  I informed her that on top of that, we can also have a community health worker reach out to her and guide her to community resources available to potentially help with rent/mortgage/food, etc. to help her maintain isolation.    She basically gave me the bird over the phone and hung up on me for trying to resolve her concerns and help.  Nice lady!  People are so freaking blind.  It doesn't matter what you say, or what their symptoms are, or what the test says, they CAN'T believe it is real and that they can hurt other people.   :zombie:

Sounds like fear, pure and simple.  Denial is one of the first stages of grief.  Many people are just not prepared to handle something like COVID-19.  But we should all still do all that we can to prepare and help others know how to prepare.

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19 minutes ago, Ahab said:

Sounds like those of us with chronic health problems should prepare to die, as much as we can prepare ourselves and our families for it. 

That seems a little extreme...but to some extent, yes, you are right, we should all prepare to die.  I have my will completed, life insurance, etc.   I don't think that you should expect to die from this though, if that is what you are saying. 

19 minutes ago, Ahab said:

Many people are just not prepared to handle something like COVID-19.  But we should all still do all that we can to prepare and help others know how to prepare.

How do you propose helping other to prepare who fight against any attempt to prevent it?

Herbert has not attempted to close the economy and people still throw a fit about masks, limiting social gatherings, no sports, etc.  You can't have it both ways people!  Either follow his guidelines or have him shut down the economy, which would you prefer?  Save us all a lot of hurt and get in touch with reality people (not talking to you Ahab...just venting). 

I am very good with people on the phone.  This is my place to vent.  Sorry folks. 

Edited by pogi
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1 minute ago, pogi said:

That seems a little extreme...but to some extent, yes, you are right, we should all prepare to die.  I have my will completed, life insurance, etc.   

With COVID-19 lurking around and the possibility that anyone can get it, and the fact that people with chronic health problems are considered high risk for death if we/they do get it, I think our situation qualifies as an extremely dangerous situation.

1 minute ago, pogi said:

How do you propose helping other to prepare who fight against any attempt to prevent it?

Herbert has not attempted to close the economy and people still throw a fit about masks, limiting social gatherings, no sports, etc.  You can't have it both ways people!  Either follow his guidelines or have him shut down the economy, which would you prefer?  Save us all a lot of hurt and get in touch with reality people (not talking to you Ahab...just venting). 

I am very good with people on the phone.  This is my place to vent.  Sorry folks. 

By just telling them, at least once and with some real feelings, that they need to prepare to be dead if they get COVID-19, especially if they have chronic health problems.  While helping them to know what they should do to prepare for their death.

That's at least how I am going about it.  I have been telling people around me to prepare to die if they get COVID-19 or if they hang around people who have it.  Get ready to die.  Get right with God, knowing you will face him someday, and probably sooner than later if they have chronic health problems and catch COVID-19.  Do what you can to prepare financially for your family you will be leaving behind if they do not die when you do, and prepare them for it emotionally and intellectually too.  With knowledge that the gospel is true people can know that death will be only a temporary situation but it will still be hard to face, so do all that you can, whatever you can do, to prepare for it when it eventually happens.  Death isn't pleasant but it is good to know we will all still be alive after we die and that we can prepare ourselves for the life we will have after we die.,

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1 hour ago, Ahab said:

With COVID-19 lurking around and the possibility that anyone can get it, and the fact that people with chronic health problems are considered high risk for death if we/they do get it, I think our situation qualifies as an extremely dangerous situation.

"High risk" is a relative term.

If you are between the ages of 65 and 74, your chances of survival are 95.13%

If you are 75 or older, your chances of survival are 85.8%

I wouldn't classify that as "extremely dangerous".

Those are cumulative numbers including those with comorbidities and those without.  However the vast majority over 65 have at least 1 comorbidity.  So, I'd say you have a pretty good chance of not kicking the can if you are infected.  Precaution is highly encouraged, however - unnecessary fear is not.  As an individual, your odds are pretty good, as a group, there will be thousands of unnecessary deaths that we, as a community, can work to prevent. 

These numbers are according to New York City numbers during the spring wave - so it might be lower than that even.   Having said that, these numbers don't account for excess deaths either, so that could raise the numbers back up.  As it says: "Additionally, we only included deaths that were laboratory confirmed as related to SARS-CoV-2 infection or explicitly coded as related to COVID-19. Previous studies have reported that excess deaths in New York City during about the same period were over 24,000"

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30769-6/fulltext

Edited by pogi
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22 minutes ago, pogi said:

"High risk" is a relative term.

If you are between the ages of 65 and 74, your chances of survival are 95.13%

If you are 75 or older, your chances of survival are 85.8%

I wouldn't classify that as "extremely dangerous".

Those are cumulative numbers including those with comorbidities and those without.  However the vase majority over 65 have at least 1 comorbidity.  So, I'd say you have a pretty good chance of not kicking the can if you are infected.  Precaution is highly encouraged, however - unnecessary fear is not.  As an individual, your odds are pretty good, as a group, there will be thousands of unnecessary deaths that we, as a community, can work to prevent. 

These numbers are according to New York City numbers during the spring wave - so it might be lower than that even.   Having said that, these numbers don't account for excess deaths either, so that could raise the numbers up.  As it says: "Additionally, we only included deaths that were laboratory confirmed as related to SARS-CoV-2 infection or explicitly coded as related to COVID-19. Previous studies have reported that excess deaths in New York City during about the same period were over 24,000"

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30769-6/fulltext

Age is not the primary factor when determining the probability of death of someone who gets the COVID-19 bug.  My wife's body is age 60 and she has type 1 diabetes, stage 3 kidney disease, asthma, neuropathy, fibromyalgia, osteoarthritis, and a few other more minor health problems.  My body is age 59 and I have heart arrhythmia, so-called pre-diabetes, and high blood pressure.  My wife and I do take drugs/medications to try to keep all of these things in check but we're still considered to be at high risk of death if we were to catch COVID-19.  And we are not afraid of death, but we're not in a big hurry to die, either, so we are not the kind of people who would freak out if both or only one of us died.  We'd just like to stick around for a while longer to enjoy spending time with some other members of our family who haven't died yet.  But it is good to be prepared for whenever we go.

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28 minutes ago, Ahab said:

Age is not the primary factor when determining the probability of death of someone who gets the COVID-19 bug.  My wife's body is age 60 and she has type 1 diabetes, stage 3 kidney disease, asthma, neuropathy, fibromyalgia, osteoarthritis, and a few other more minor health problems.  My body is age 59 and I have heart arrhythmia, so-called pre-diabetes, and high blood pressure.  My wife and I do take drugs/medications to try to keep all of these things in check but we're still considered to be at high risk of death if we were to catch COVID-19.  And we are not afraid of death, but we're not in a big hurry to die, either, so we are not the kind of people who would freak out if both or only one of us died.  We'd just like to stick around for a while longer to enjoy spending time with some other members of our family who haven't died yet.  But it is good to be prepared for whenever we go.

Age actually is the primary (#1) risk factor when considering Covid risk.  Over 80% of the deaths in the US are over 65 years old.  

Type I diabetes, fibromyalgia, neuropathy, and osteoarthritis are not known risk factors - and we have enough data to know by now (hopefully that will help you rest a little easier).  It is type II diabetes that we are concerned about.   While kidney disease is a risk factor, it is patients on dialysis that we are most concerned about.  Asthma is known risk factor, but with her age, I wouldn't be as concerned.  I talk with people who have asthma at her age almost daily.  Most do very very well.  I am not saying that your wife shouldn't take precautions and be concerned, but I don't think she needs to necessarily accept this as a death sentence.  I would say she is in a higher risk category with her kidney disease and asthma, but she has more reason to hope than fear. 

Edited by pogi
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20 minutes ago, pogi said:

Type I diabetes,

Yay!!!!  I hadn’t seen anything differentiating them. Thank you!

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21 minutes ago, pogi said:

Age actually is the primary (#1) risk factor when considering Covid risk.  Over 80% of the deaths in the US are over 65 years old.  

Type I diabetes, fibromyalgia, neuropathy, and osteoarthritis are not known risk factors - and we have enough data to know by now (hopefully that will help you rest a little easier).  It is type II diabetes that we are concerned about.   While kidney disease is a risk factor, it is patients on dialysis that we are most concerned about.  Asthma is known risk factor, but with her age, I wouldn't be as concerned.  I talk with people who have asthma at her age almost daily.  Most do very very well.  I am not saying that your wife shouldn't take precautions and be concerned, but I don't think she needs to necessarily accept this as a death sentence.  I would say she is in a higher risk category with her kidney disease and asthma, but she has more reason to hope than fear. 

If only every doctor agreed with what you said here.  I think the reason people have died from COVID is because of their other health issues, not because of their age.  It's just that it's usually older people who have those health issues. My wife is very young to have all of the health problems she has.  Usually it's not until people are older that they have so many health problems.

It would be nice for me to believe that what you said is true, though.  I may choose to believe it just to help me feel better... while we still try to prepare for the worst.

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