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Covid II: Medical Info and Implications


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7 minutes ago, bsjkki said:

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We now have tests and test a lot. According to statistics, of which this is just one graph, it doesn't seem masks are going to do the trick.

The graph doesn't measure compliance. 

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14 minutes ago, Ahab said:

If only every doctor agreed with what you said here.  I think the reason people have died from COVID is because of their other health issues, not because of their age.  It's just that it's usually older people who have those health issues.

Yes, comorbidities increase risk, and people are more likely to have comorbidities as they age.  However,  it is known that younger people with comorbidities do MUCH better than older people with those same comorbidities.  Age is an independent risk factor.  The highest risk is being over 85.   

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Recent data, including an MMWR published last week, has shown that the older people are, the higher their risk of severe illness from COVID-19. Age is an independent risk factor for severe illness...

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/p0625-update-expands-covid-19.html#:~:text=CDC now warns that among,severe illness from COVID-19.

 

 

31 minutes ago, Ahab said:

It would be nice for me to believe that what you said is true, though.  I may choose to believe it just to help me feel better... while we still try to prepare for the worst.

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.  Hopefully the vaccine will find its way to your wife, sooner than later. 

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Contact tracing needs to be part of the process, imo. And social distancing. 
 

I think this is a case of the sum being greater than the total the parts. They help each other be more effective. 
 

Looks like using the app to help with tracing isn’t as popular in France as other countries.

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Although the app experienced a sharp surge of downloads within hours of being launched, the popularity in download numbers remains smaller than other countries. For example, the NHS COVID-19 app for England and Wales was downloaded more than one million times in its first 24 hours.

 

https://www.healthcareitnews.com/news/emea/france-launches-new-contact-tracing-app-tousanticovid

There a concern over privacy. They are telling them to only turn it on in crowded situations like the Metro and the Prime Minister hasn’t even done because he doesn’t take the Metro. 
 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN27A0AZ

France had a 3% usage of the older app compared to double digits in other countries, Germany over 20% for example.
 

 Can’t find anyone on how many human contact tracers yet. 

Edited by Calm
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34 minutes ago, bsjkki said:

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Social gatherings are the highest risk for spread.  I wonder if this measures use of masks around close friends and family (if these countries are anything like us, they are not wearing them in close social gatherings of family and friends), or if it is just measuring mask use in public markets/work/school, etc.  I don't think anyone expected masks to be the magic bullet (unless we can get fitted N95 to everyone) that will completely curb the spread, but it is impossible to know what these numbers would look like without the use of masks.  We do know from testing that they work though.   It is very difficult to compare country to country, or even state to state.  We all spike at different times for different reasons.  I remember people claiming that some states hardly use masks at all and had some of the lowest reported cases -  now they some of the highest rates (like Montana).  People were saying look at South Dakota, not even Sturgis affected it.  Take a look again people.   The Dakota's are the hardest hit in the entire nation right now.  

Edited by pogi
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Just now, pogi said:

Social gatherings are the highest risk for spread.  I wonder if this measures use of masks around close friends and family (if these countries are anything like us, they are not wearing them in close social gatherings of family and friends), or if it is just measuring mask use in public markets/work/school, etc.  I don't think anyone expected masks to be the magic bullet (unless we can get fitted N95 to everyone) that will completely curb the spread, but it is impossible to know what these numbers would look like without the use of masks.  We don know from testing that they work though.   It is very difficult to compare country to country, or even state to state.  We all spike at different times for different reasons.  I remember people claiming that some states hardly use masks at all and had some of the lowest reported cases - retrospectively they are now some of the highest rates (like Montana).  People were saying look at South Dakota, not even Sturgis affected it.  Take a look again people.   The Dakota's are the hardest hit in the entire nation right now.  

My county has a high mask compliance rate. We are spiking cases. https://data.tchd.org/covid19/

Cases up and deaths up too...but nothing like March/April.

Does Utah have county metrics like these? I find the data very interesting. We may be turning the corner on our spike...not sure yet.

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20 minutes ago, bsjkki said:

My county has a high mask compliance rate. We are spiking cases. https://data.tchd.org/covid19/

Cases up and deaths up too...but nothing like March/April.

Does Utah have county metrics like these? I find the data very interesting. We may be turning the corner on our spike...not sure yet.

Mask compliance is self reported.  I think if people are wearing their masks at work, school, market, public places, etc. they report high compliance...then they go to their friends/parents/siblings house and take off their masks.  I don't think we have a really good idea of how many people are 100% compliant.  Very few, I would say.   I would like to see the specific survey questions.  Are they differentiating between different settings?  Or is it just an overall - are you compliant or not?  Most people who try (even if they are not perfect) would rate themselves as compliant, I think. 

Edited by pogi
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19 minutes ago, bsjkki said:

My county has a high mask compliance rate. We are spiking cases. https://data.tchd.org/covid19/

Cases up and deaths up too...but nothing like March/April.

Does Utah have county metrics like these? I find the data very interesting. We may be turning the corner on our spike...not sure yet.

How much traveling is exchanged between counties?  Especially college students?

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13 minutes ago, pogi said:

Mask compliance is self reported.  I think if people are wearing their masks at work, school, market, public places, etc. they report high compliance...then they go to their friends/parents/siblings house and take off their masks.  I don't think we have a really good idea of how many people are 100% compliant.  Very few, I would say.   I would like to see the specific survey questions.  Are they differentiating between different settings?  Or is it just an overall - are you compliant or not?  Most people who try (even if they are not perfect) would rate themselves as compliant, I think. 

In my county, it is observation study.

"Snapshot of Percent of People Wearing a Mask in Adams, Arapahoe, and Douglas Counties

Masking data is added to our data dashboard. This data is collected by our Environment Health team and volunteers collecting data at local facilities on the public wearing masks, public not wearing masks, and public not wearing masks properly. This data has been helpful as we continue to promote the importance of mask-wearing and protecting the ones we love. Scroll down to the end of the data dashboard to see the masking data by county and select cities. "

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5 minutes ago, Calm said:

Is there evidence this works?

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/10/eli-lillys-covid-19-antibody-treatment-shows-promise

Potential for early-stage intervention

Eli Lilly researchers remain confident that LY-CoV555 may prevent the disease progression of earlier-stage COVID-19 patients. The phase 2 study of outpatients and a planned phase 3 study focusing on antibody treatment in residents and staff of long-term care facilities continue to move forward.

"It is important to treat people with COVID-19 as soon as possible after diagnosis in order to forestall development of more severe disease," said  Peter Chen, MD, of Cedars-Sinai in Los Angeles and first author of the NEJM study, in an Eli Lilly press release this week. "Our findings indicate that neutralizing antibodies may have the potential to be useful in this early-stage intervention," he added.

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9 minutes ago, bsjkki said:

In my county, it is observation study.

"Snapshot of Percent of People Wearing a Mask in Adams, Arapahoe, and Douglas Counties

Masking data is added to our data dashboard. This data is collected by our Environment Health team and volunteers collecting data at local facilities on the public wearing masks, public not wearing masks, and public not wearing masks properly. This data has been helpful as we continue to promote the importance of mask-wearing and protecting the ones we love. Scroll down to the end of the data dashboard to see the masking data by county and select cities. "

While tons more accurate than self reporting, how would they measure compliance in private get togethers, especially in homes?

Edited by Calm
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6 minutes ago, bsjkki said:

Our findings indicate that neutralizing antibodies may have the potential to be useful in this early-stage intervention," he added.

So not much evidence. :P  
 

Here’s hoping. 

Edited by Calm
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17 minutes ago, bsjkki said:

In my county, it is observation study.

"Snapshot of Percent of People Wearing a Mask in Adams, Arapahoe, and Douglas Counties

Masking data is added to our data dashboard. This data is collected by our Environment Health team and volunteers collecting data at local facilities on the public wearing masks, public not wearing masks, and public not wearing masks properly. This data has been helpful as we continue to promote the importance of mask-wearing and protecting the ones we love. Scroll down to the end of the data dashboard to see the masking data by county and select cities. "

Observational studies in public places tell us very little about use in private settings - where it is primarily being transmitted.   There has been at least one poster on here who said he always wears the mask in public, but refuses to wear a mask around extended family and friends in private.  He was very upset that I even suggested it.  I think that is the norm, honestly.  Social distancing and masks kind of go out the window - and that is probably why it is being transmitted in those settings the most. 

Edited by pogi
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35 minutes ago, pogi said:

Social gatherings are the highest risk for spread.  I wonder if this measures use of masks around close friends and family (if these countries are anything like us, they are not wearing them in close social gatherings of family and friends), or if it is just measuring mask use in public markets/work/school, etc.  I don't think anyone expected masks to be the magic bullet (unless we can get fitted N95 to everyone) that will completely curb the spread, but it is impossible to know what these numbers would look like without the use of masks.  We do know from testing that they work though.   It is very difficult to compare country to country, or even state to state.  We all spike at different times for different reasons.  I remember people claiming that some states hardly use masks at all and had some of the lowest reported cases -  now they some of the highest rates (like Montana).  People were saying look at South Dakota, not even Sturgis affected it.  Take a look again people.   The Dakota's are the hardest hit in the entire nation right now.  

I have been searching and searching for a 'model' that I saw in the early months of Covid--March, April or May that basically showed Covid would hit smaller population states later. That Utah would have  a spike after bigger states and states that had already had outbreaks. Can't find it now.

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7 minutes ago, Calm said:

So not much evidence. :P  
 

Here’s hoping. 

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2029849

"On days 2 to 6, the patients who received LY-CoV555 had a slightly lower severity of symptoms than those who received placebo. The percentage of patients who had a Covid-19–related hospitalization or visit to an emergency department was 1.6% in the LY-CoV555 group and 6.3% in the placebo group.

Conclusions

In this interim analysis of a phase 2 trial, one of three doses of neutralizing antibody LY-CoV555 appeared to accelerate the natural decline in viral load over time, whereas the other doses had not by day 11. (Funded by Eli Lilly; BLAZE-1 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04427501. opens in new tab.)

Looks good for decreasing hospitalizations...which is what is needed desperately in Utah.

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5 minutes ago, pogi said:

Observational studies in public places tell us very little about use in private settings - where it is primarily being transmitted.   There has been at least one poster on here who said he always wears the mask in public, but refuses to wear a mask around extended family and friends in private.  He was very upset that I even suggested it.  I think that is the norm, honestly.  Social distancing and masks kind of go out the window - and that is probably why it is being transmitted in those settings the most. 

No one is going to wear masks in their home. Not going to happen. I find this a little bit in the 'shifting goal posts' category.

Edited by bsjkki
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2 minutes ago, bsjkki said:

No one is going to wear masks in their home. Not going to happen. I find this a little bit in the 'shifting goal posts' category.

Not for me. If anyone comes into our house besides those who live there, the masks go on and windows open.  I figured everyone who was concerned would do the same thing at the beginning. I learned differently. 

Edited by Calm
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9 minutes ago, bsjkki said:

I have been searching and searching for a 'model' that I saw in the early months of Covid--March, April or May that basically showed Covid would hit smaller population states later. That Utah would have  a spike after bigger states and states that had already had outbreaks. Can't find it now.

It makes sense that it first hit densely populated areas and spread out from there.  My point is that people took early indications of low transmission and low mask use as evidence that they don't need masks/they don't really work.  Hopefully the numbers tell them something else now.   

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16 minutes ago, bsjkki said:

No one is going to wear masks in their home. Not going to happen. I find this a little bit in the 'shifting goal posts' category.

It has always been recommended to wear masks and social distance when not around immediate family.  No "shifting".  The fact that social gatherings (where people aren't wearing masks or distancing) continue to be the primary source of transmission, leads me to believe that masks and distancing is working everywhere else.  We just need to convince people to wear them around extended family and friends, even in their own home.  

I am confused, I thought you were the one posting studies that masks work.  Have you changed your mind?

Edited by pogi
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5 minutes ago, pogi said:

It makes sense that it first hit densely populated areas and spread out from there.  My point is that people took early indications of low transmission and low mask use as evidence that they don't need masks/they don't really work.  Hopefully the numbers tell them something else now.   

I think the numbers tell us they don't really work to stop the spread of covid. Mask compliant countries are spiking. I think it is a seasonal outbreak. I'm not saying masks don't work at all. I think they help...they just don't work well enough to stop it. I think if we all wore better masks, KF94 like South Korea...it might help more. https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/difference-between-n95-and-kf94-masks/

"Comparison of mask use before/after the COVID-19 outbreak South Korea 2020

Published by Won So, May 25, 2020
According to a survey conducted in South Korea, around 70 percent of respondents stated that they started to wear face masks after coronavirus outbreak. About 19 percent were already wearing masks even before the outbreak and another 11 percent said they do not wear masks regardless of coronavirus. The most popular type of face masks among South Koreans was KF94 health masks.
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9 minutes ago, pogi said:

It has always been recommended to wear masks and social distance when not around immediate family.  No "shifting".  The fact that social gatherings (where people aren't wearing masks or distancing) continue to be the primary source of transmission, leads me to believe that masks and distancing is working everywhere else.  We just need to convince people to wear them around extended family and friends, even in their own home.  

I am confused, I thought you were the one posting studies that masks work.  Have you changed your mind?

I think they help...I think the rising cases in Europe and across the US show they don't help as much as we hoped. American's wear horrible masks that have been shown to do little and also they don't wash them or wear them properly. We would need to upgrade our mask type to do a lot more good.

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17 minutes ago, bsjkki said:

I think the numbers tell us they don't really work to stop the spread of covid.

A claim no major health agency has made.  They can reduce spread and severity of disease.

17 minutes ago, bsjkki said:

I'm not saying masks don't work at all. I think they help...they just don't work well enough to stop it. 

I have never seen anyone claim that it would stop it.  I find this a little bit in the 'shifting goal posts' category.

17 minutes ago, bsjkki said:

 I think if we all wore better masks, KF94 like South Korea...it might help more. https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/difference-between-n95-and-kf94-masks/

No doubt. 

That cool nano technology from BYU is promising.  I hope we start seeing products on the market with it soon.  

Edited by pogi
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