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Covid II: Medical Info and Implications


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20 minutes ago, bsjkki said:

 ...show they don't help as much as we hoped.

I don't know about that.  You are not considering the context of the evidence.  You are basing your doubts on observational studies of people sitting out in public places and counting how many people are wearing masks.  You then conflate high public mask use with high mask use/compliance in general.   Like I said, we are seeing reduced transmission in public places where masks are encouraged/enforced, and we are seeing increased transmission in private gatherings where the masks fly off.  What does that tell you?

Edited by pogi
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In the 7 Day Moving Average of deaths per Day category divided out per million, Utah is doing relatively well.  They are 16th best in the US.  The top 20 are:

 Alaska
Hawaii
Vermont
New Hampshire
Maine
Virginia
New York
Delaware
California
New Jersey
District Of Columbia
Oregon
Maryland
Washington
Florida
Utah
Kentucky
Connecticut
Pennsylvania
Ohio
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21 minutes ago, T-Shirt said:

In the 7 Day Moving Average of deaths per Day category divided out per million, Utah is doing relatively well.  They are 16th best in the US.  The top 20 are:

 Alaska
Hawaii
Vermont
New Hampshire
Maine
Virginia
New York
Delaware
California
New Jersey
District Of Columbia
Oregon
Maryland
Washington
Florida
Utah
Kentucky
Connecticut
Pennsylvania
Ohio

That is good.  I think Utah will always have a lower death rate.  If I am not mistaken, I think we have a younger and healthier population than average.   If our health care system becomes strained, as it is on the brinks of doing, we will shoot up higher on the list though.

Unfortunately, we are the 9th worst state in terms of transmission right now however.   Depending on what the IFR is per state, a percentage of those will translate into deaths as death is always a lagging indicator.   That is why focusing on lowering case counts is very important.  Fewer cases = fewer deaths. 

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days

State/Territory Cases in Last 7 Days per 100K
North Dakota 155.8
South Dakota 130.8
Iowa 101.6
Wisconsin 99.5
Nebraska 91.1
Wyoming 88.7
Montana 83.2
Minnesota 76.9
Utah 72.8
Edited by pogi
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10 minutes ago, T-Shirt said:

In the 7 Day Moving Average of deaths per Day category divided out per million, Utah is doing relatively well.  They are 16th best in the US.  The top 20 are:

 Alaska
Hawaii
Vermont
New Hampshire
Maine
Virginia
New York
Delaware
California
New Jersey
District Of Columbia
Oregon
Maryland
Washington
Florida
Utah
Kentucky
Connecticut
Pennsylvania
Ohio

Is this per capita?  If not, a small population state will likely have less deaths even if higher death rate. 

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1 hour ago, Calm said:

Is this per capita?  If not, a small population state will likely have less deaths even if higher death rate. 

It is per one million residents.

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58 minutes ago, Calm said:

The stats I am referring to is not death rate but the Seven day average daily death total calculated out to get the average daily death total per million in order to compare it to other states.

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1 hour ago, Calm said:

Is this per capita?  If not, a small population state will likely have less deaths even if higher death rate. 

Fewer deaths. ;):D

Sorry.  Couldn't resist! ;)

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14 minutes ago, T-Shirt said:

The stats I am referring to is not death rate but the Seven day average daily death total calculated out to get the average daily death total per million in order to compare it to other states.

I looked at the wrong chart. 

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We have had another double digit death day today in Utah.  11 more deaths today.  That gives us 3 double digit death days in 10 days (where we never saw a single one before November).  This is definitely not a fluke single day spike.  We are starting to see an emerging trend which I have always projected would follow an increase in cases. 

For the 10 days in November, we have a running average of 6.9 deaths/day. 

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Our province is going into total lockdown again, the public has been crying for quite awhile for the province to do it and so they responded.

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I think high school for us is going all online starting tomorrow. My poor junior. My college student is going to take a break next semester. Online classes and no social/study groups is causing a lot of issues.

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11 minutes ago, bsjkki said:

I think high school for us is going all online starting tomorrow. My poor junior. 

You mean, just for your kid's school, right?

Is it permanent or just a 2 week shut down?

I feel for kids in school going through all this back and forth, that would be so difficult.  Although, I always did much better in school with online self-guided courses - but not all do.

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26 minutes ago, pogi said:

This is so un-American! ...oh wait...

if you go onto the reddit group for here, man oh man oh man, the Premier is not looking so good! he gets a failing grade every time they do a pool for best Premier in the country

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2 hours ago, pogi said:

You mean, just for your kid's school, right?

Is it permanent or just a 2 week shut down?

I feel for kids in school going through all this back and forth, that would be so difficult.  Although, I always did much better in school with online self-guided courses - but not all do.

She is in Colorado, iirc. 

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5 hours ago, pogi said:

You mean, just for your kid's school, right?

Is it permanent or just a 2 week shut down?

I feel for kids in school going through all this back and forth, that would be so difficult.  Although, I always did much better in school with online self-guided courses - but not all do.

In Colorado...neighboring counties have reverted to all online. Its only a matter of time. I don’t think they will actually go back in two weeks. 
 

Edited by bsjkki
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1 hour ago, bsjkki said:

In Colorado...neighboring counties have reverted to all online. Its only a matter of time. I don’t think they will actually go back in two weeks. 
 

I will have to see if my CO teacher sister is relieved (she calls me a lot for reassurances she is not risking others, I pass on what Pogi tells us :) ) or frustrated. 

Edited by Calm
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Summary from ConsumerLabs, which does testing of their own, but also lists studies.  I highly recommend them for anyone interested in info on supplements and Covid claims.

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Variability in mask performance was dependent on the tightness of the contact between the material and the facial skin and masks that tied around the head outperformed those with elastic ear loops, noting that "ear loops may not provide adequate tension to maintain a tight fit during a typical range of motions" (Sickbert-Bennett, JAMA Intern Med 2020).

This was for KN masks, but I assume other kinds as well.

CDC evaluation of masks of various types and brands:

https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/respirators/testing/NonNIOSHresults.html

Edited by Calm
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EDH:

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One in 5 COVID-19 patients develop mental illness. Research published this week in  The Lancet Psychiatry found that about 1 in 5 people who have had the coronavirus are diagnosed with a psychiatric disorder such as anxiety, depression, or insomnia within three months of testing positive for the virus. Results, based on a large study population of 62,354 individuals who had a diagnosis of COVID-19, indicated that those with a preexisting mental health diagnosis faced an even greater risk (65 percent higher) of developing a new mental illness compared with those with no prior mental disorder. “We did not anticipate that psychiatric history would be an independent risk factor for COVID-19. This finding appears robust, being observed in all age strata and in both sexes, and was substantial,” concluded the study authors.

 

 

 

This should be hardly surprising given the commotion around the disease, the unknown outcomes, etc.  Those who get it have it all up close and personal. 

Did they compare it to people who had another acute illness of similar physical effect (depending on how severe).

I need to check out the study and see if they included those who were asymptomatic and weren’t aware they had the disease. Now if they were also higher than the general population, then that would be very interesting....unfortunate, but interesting. 

Edited by Calm
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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/10/health/coronavirus-children.html

There are many studies showing similar things.

"A possible reason may be that many children already have antibodies to other coronaviruses, according to researchers at the Francis Crick Institute in London. About one in five of the colds that plague children are caused by viruses in this family. Antibodies to those viruses may also block SARS-CoV-2, the new coronavirus causing the pandemic.

In a study published Friday in Science, the group, led by George Kassiotis, who heads the Retroviral Immunology Laboratory at the institute, reports that on average only 5 percent of adults had these antibodies, but 43 percent of children did....

After examining blood taken from 190 people before the pandemic emerged, Dr. Elledge and his colleagues concluded that many already had antibodies, including the one targeting the base of the spike — presumably from infections with related coronaviruses that cause colds.

But while adults might get one or two colds a year, Dr. Elledge said, children may get up to a dozen. As a result, many develop floods of coronavirus antibodies that are present almost continuously; they may lessen cold symptoms, or even leave children with colds that are symptomless but still infectious.https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/11/05/science.abe1107

I wonder if these antibodies may be more prevalent in other regions?

Edited by bsjkki
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EDH:

Quote

Dr. Fauci says a vaccine could be available to all by April. Encouraged by recent progress in vaccine candidate trials, Anthony Fauci, MD, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), predicted on CNN Wednesday that the average American will have access to a vaccine by April.
 

Good news first...

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Infected nurses in North Dakota are allowed to keep working. With hospitals in North Dakota now at 100 percent capacity, Governor Doug Burgum is allowing healthcare workers with asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 to continue working in hospitals, according to the Grand Forks Herald. Burgum made the amendment to try and alleviate staffing concerns.

And this is what happens when they run out of reserves...

Pogi, since viral load is an issue, can an person already infected and showing symptoms be made worse by exporsure to more virus?  What about those without symptoms?

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El Paso has brought in ten mobile morgues. As reported by KFOX14 in Texas, El Paso has set up 10 mobile morgues as the area struggle with a wave of COVID-19 deaths. Patients with COVID-19 have been dying faster than health officials can investigate them.

 

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4 hours ago, Calm said:

Pogi, since viral load is an issue, can an person already infected and showing symptoms be made worse by exporsure to more virus?  What about those without symptoms?

It is the initial viral load that makes the biggest difference in morbidity, because the immune system hasn't kicked in yet it has time to replicate like crazy.  The immune system will already be activated to attack the virus from later exposures.  That is why we don't require people who are already infected to isolate from each other, so it shouldn't be a big deal if infected nurses are around infected patients.  The big concern with that is the potential to infect other staff at the nurses station.  

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