Covid II: Medical Info and Implications

[pogi 9,474]

20 minutes ago, bsjkki said:

 ...show they don't help as much as we hoped.

I don't know about that.  You are not considering the context of the evidence.  You are basing your doubts on observational studies of people sitting out in public places and counting how many people are wearing masks.  You then conflate high public mask use with high mask use/compliance in general.   Like I said, we are seeing reduced transmission in public places where masks are encouraged/enforced, and we are seeing increased transmission in private gatherings where the masks fly off.  What does that tell you?

Edited November 10, 2020 by pogi

[T-Shirt 454]

In the 7 Day Moving Average of deaths per Day category divided out per million, Utah is doing relatively well.  They are 16th best in the US.  The top 20 are:

Alaska

Hawaii

Vermont

New Hampshire

Maine

Virginia

New York

Delaware

California

New Jersey

District Of Columbia

Oregon

Maryland

Washington

Florida

Utah

Kentucky

Connecticut

Pennsylvania

Ohio

[pogi 9,474]

21 minutes ago, T-Shirt said:

In the 7 Day Moving Average of deaths per Day category divided out per million, Utah is doing relatively well.  They are 16th best in the US.  The top 20 are:

Alaska

Hawaii

Vermont

New Hampshire

Maine

Virginia

New York

Delaware

California

New Jersey

District Of Columbia

Oregon

Maryland

Washington

Florida

Utah

Kentucky

Connecticut

Pennsylvania

Ohio

That is good.  I think Utah will always have a lower death rate.  If I am not mistaken, I think we have a younger and healthier population than average.   If our health care system becomes strained, as it is on the brinks of doing, we will shoot up higher on the list though.

Unfortunately, we are the 9th worst state in terms of transmission right now however.   Depending on what the IFR is per state, a percentage of those will translate into deaths as death is always a lagging indicator.   That is why focusing on lowering case counts is very important.  Fewer cases = fewer deaths. 

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days

State/Territory	Cases in Last 7 Days per 100K
North Dakota	155.8
South Dakota	130.8
Iowa	101.6
Wisconsin	99.5
Nebraska	91.1
Wyoming	88.7
Montana	83.2
Minnesota	76.9
Utah	72.8

Edited November 10, 2020 by pogi

[Calm 41,598]

10 minutes ago, T-Shirt said:

In the 7 Day Moving Average of deaths per Day category divided out per million, Utah is doing relatively well.  They are 16th best in the US.  The top 20 are:

Alaska

Hawaii

Vermont

New Hampshire

Maine

Virginia

New York

Delaware

California

New Jersey

District Of Columbia

Oregon

Maryland

Washington

Florida

Utah

Kentucky

Connecticut

Pennsylvania

Ohio

Is this per capita?  If not, a small population state will likely have less deaths even if higher death rate. 

[Calm 41,598]

14 minutes ago, T-Shirt said:

They are 16th best in the US

I think we are 7th best if done be number per 100,000

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

[T-Shirt 454]

1 hour ago, Calm said:

Is this per capita?  If not, a small population state will likely have less deaths even if higher death rate. 

It is per one million residents.

[T-Shirt 454]

58 minutes ago, Calm said:

I think we are 7th best if done be number per 100,000

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

The stats I am referring to is not death rate but the Seven day average daily death total calculated out to get the average daily death total per million in order to compare it to other states.

[bsjkki 5,773]

Fun charts I just discovered at the NYT.

World

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html#countries

States

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

Maybe I'll go to Disney World. Florida is doing great! Universal was so much fun.

Edited November 10, 2020 by bsjkki

[Kenngo1969 7,758]

1 hour ago, Calm said:

Is this per capita?  If not, a small population state will likely have less deaths even if higher death rate. 

Fewer deaths.

Sorry.  Couldn't resist!

[Calm 41,598]

14 minutes ago, T-Shirt said:

The stats I am referring to is not death rate but the Seven day average daily death total calculated out to get the average daily death total per million in order to compare it to other states.

I looked at the wrong chart. 

[Peacefully 406]

Cases are on the rise again here in Texas. My granddaughter has been quarantined after being exposed at school. It’s not over. 

Edited November 10, 2020 by Peacefully

[pogi 9,474]

We have had another double digit death day today in Utah.  11 more deaths today.  That gives us 3 double digit death days in 10 days (where we never saw a single one before November).  This is definitely not a fluke single day spike.  We are starting to see an emerging trend which I have always projected would follow an increase in cases. 

For the 10 days in November, we have a running average of 6.9 deaths/day. 

[Duncan 6,604]

Our province is going into total lockdown again, the public has been crying for quite awhile for the province to do it and so they responded.

[bsjkki 5,773]

I think high school for us is going all online starting tomorrow. My poor junior. My college student is going to take a break next semester. Online classes and no social/study groups is causing a lot of issues.

[pogi 9,474]

35 minutes ago, Duncan said:

the public has been crying for quite awhile for the province to do it

This is so un-American! ...oh wait...

[pogi 9,474]

11 minutes ago, bsjkki said:

I think high school for us is going all online starting tomorrow. My poor junior. 

You mean, just for your kid's school, right?

Is it permanent or just a 2 week shut down?

I feel for kids in school going through all this back and forth, that would be so difficult.  Although, I always did much better in school with online self-guided courses - but not all do.

[Duncan 6,604]

26 minutes ago, pogi said:

This is so un-American! ...oh wait...

if you go onto the reddit group for here, man oh man oh man, the Premier is not looking so good! he gets a failing grade every time they do a pool for best Premier in the country

[Calm 41,598]

2 hours ago, pogi said:

You mean, just for your kid's school, right?

Is it permanent or just a 2 week shut down?

I feel for kids in school going through all this back and forth, that would be so difficult.  Although, I always did much better in school with online self-guided courses - but not all do.

She is in Colorado, iirc. 

[bsjkki 5,773]

5 hours ago, pogi said:

You mean, just for your kid's school, right?

Is it permanent or just a 2 week shut down?

I feel for kids in school going through all this back and forth, that would be so difficult.  Although, I always did much better in school with online self-guided courses - but not all do.

In Colorado...neighboring counties have reverted to all online. Its only a matter of time. I don’t think they will actually go back in two weeks. 
 

Edited November 11, 2020 by bsjkki

[Calm 41,598]

1 hour ago, bsjkki said:

In Colorado...neighboring counties have reverted to all online. Its only a matter of time. I don’t think they will actually go back in two weeks. 
 

I will have to see if my CO teacher sister is relieved (she calls me a lot for reassurances she is not risking others, I pass on what Pogi tells us  ) or frustrated. 

Edited November 11, 2020 by Calm

[Calm 41,598]

Summary from ConsumerLabs, which does testing of their own, but also lists studies.  I highly recommend them for anyone interested in info on supplements and Covid claims.

Quote

Variability in mask performance was dependent on the tightness of the contact between the material and the facial skin and masks that tied around the head outperformed those with elastic ear loops, noting that "ear loops may not provide adequate tension to maintain a tight fit during a typical range of motions" (Sickbert-Bennett, JAMA Intern Med 2020).

This was for KN masks, but I assume other kinds as well.

CDC evaluation of masks of various types and brands:

https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/respirators/testing/NonNIOSHresults.html

Edited November 11, 2020 by Calm

[Calm 41,598]

EDH:

Quote

One in 5 COVID-19 patients develop mental illness. Research published this week in  The Lancet Psychiatry found that about 1 in 5 people who have had the coronavirus are diagnosed with a psychiatric disorder such as anxiety, depression, or insomnia within three months of testing positive for the virus. Results, based on a large study population of 62,354 individuals who had a diagnosis of COVID-19, indicated that those with a preexisting mental health diagnosis faced an even greater risk (65 percent higher) of developing a new mental illness compared with those with no prior mental disorder. “We did not anticipate that psychiatric history would be an independent risk factor for COVID-19. This finding appears robust, being observed in all age strata and in both sexes, and was substantial,” concluded the study authors.

 

 

 

This should be hardly surprising given the commotion around the disease, the unknown outcomes, etc.  Those who get it have it all up close and personal. 

Did they compare it to people who had another acute illness of similar physical effect (depending on how severe).

I need to check out the study and see if they included those who were asymptomatic and weren’t aware they had the disease. Now if they were also higher than the general population, then that would be very interesting....unfortunate, but interesting. 

Edited November 11, 2020 by Calm

[bsjkki 5,773]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/10/health/coronavirus-children.html

There are many studies showing similar things.

"A possible reason may be that many children already have antibodies to other coronaviruses, according to researchers at the Francis Crick Institute in London. About one in five of the colds that plague children are caused by viruses in this family. Antibodies to those viruses may also block SARS-CoV-2, the new coronavirus causing the pandemic.

In a study published Friday in Science, the group, led by George Kassiotis, who heads the Retroviral Immunology Laboratory at the institute, reports that on average only 5 percent of adults had these antibodies, but 43 percent of children did....

After examining blood taken from 190 people before the pandemic emerged, Dr. Elledge and his colleagues concluded that many already had antibodies, including the one targeting the base of the spike — presumably from infections with related coronaviruses that cause colds.

But while adults might get one or two colds a year, Dr. Elledge said, children may get up to a dozen. As a result, many develop floods of coronavirus antibodies that are present almost continuously; they may lessen cold symptoms, or even leave children with colds that are symptomless but still infectious.https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/11/05/science.abe1107

I wonder if these antibodies may be more prevalent in other regions?

Edited November 11, 2020 by bsjkki

[Calm 41,598]

EDH:

Quote

Dr. Fauci says a vaccine could be available to all by April. Encouraged by recent progress in vaccine candidate trials, Anthony Fauci, MD, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), predicted on CNN Wednesday that the average American will have access to a vaccine by April.
 

Good news first...

Quote

Infected nurses in North Dakota are allowed to keep working. With hospitals in North Dakota now at 100 percent capacity, Governor Doug Burgum is allowing healthcare workers with asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 to continue working in hospitals, according to the Grand Forks Herald. Burgum made the amendment to try and alleviate staffing concerns.

And this is what happens when they run out of reserves...

Pogi, since viral load is an issue, can an person already infected and showing symptoms be made worse by exporsure to more virus?  What about those without symptoms?

Quote

El Paso has brought in ten mobile morgues. As reported by KFOX14 in Texas, El Paso has set up 10 mobile morgues as the area struggle with a wave of COVID-19 deaths. Patients with COVID-19 have been dying faster than health officials can investigate them.

 

[pogi 9,474]

4 hours ago, Calm said:

Pogi, since viral load is an issue, can an person already infected and showing symptoms be made worse by exporsure to more virus?  What about those without symptoms?

It is the initial viral load that makes the biggest difference in morbidity, because the immune system hasn't kicked in yet it has time to replicate like crazy.  The immune system will already be activated to attack the virus from later exposures.  That is why we don't require people who are already infected to isolate from each other, so it shouldn't be a big deal if infected nurses are around infected patients.  The big concern with that is the potential to infect other staff at the nurses station.