Are More People Leaving the Church: Study

[HappyJackWagon]

This is an interesting article by David Ostler (former bishop, Stake President, Mission President) who has been studying the issue of faith crisis and the leadership response to it. He also draws heavily on Pew Research and the ongoing research of Reiss & Knoll. There are some interesting conclusions in this paper. I encourage everyone to read the full paper. It's not very long.

Here is a response to survey questions by current local leaders (Bishops and Stake Presidents)

Quote

 

Remember, this survey is of local church leaders. This table was a surprise. Stake and ward leaders gave mixed opinions on whether the Church provides adequate material to address faith challenges. They report that wards and stakes are not providing any training. The lack of confidence in ward leaders around their ability to minister in a faith crisis surprised me.

Leaders see addressing faith challenges as a very important topic but say they are not receiving materials and training and have low confidence in their local leaders ability to address it. I interpret the data to show that something is different today; leaders worry and have a lack of confidence in how to respond.

http://www.stakeandwardresources.org/are-more-people-leaving-the-church

And then there is the response from those who are or have experienced faith crisis.

Quote

 

This survey is of the very members we are at risk of losing and they have no confidence in materials from the Church, training within the stake and ward and the ability of their leaders to understand and minister to their needs. If we are unable to understand them, I fear that these trends of disaffiliation will continue.

Though the lack of confidence in the church's ability to aid those in faith crisis is more stark from those who have experienced faith crisis, it appears that many leaders also lack confidence in their ability to aid those in crisis.

Most people recognize that significant changes are occurring in the church and it appears that religious loyalty is down, losses are up, and religious leaving occurs at a much higher rate in those born between 1971-1994.

Quote

 

For Mormons born between 1956-1970, 71.2% stay Mormon, slightly higher than the 68.6% average for all religions. It is lower for Catholics and Jews and higher than many Protestant Churches, and roughly the same for Baptists. But, looking at those born between 1971-1994, the Mormon loyalty rate declines to 61.2%. This is a 10% decline between these age groups. Only Unitarians had a larger decline. The next largest decline was for Catholics at 4.5%. Some religions had increases. Sherkat said, “Mormons also have high rates of loyalty in generations born before 1971, but in the youngest cohorts, loyalty drops to 61% and ranks Mormons among the least loyal groups in the youngest generation."

Gains and Losses shows a similar pattern. In older generations, there is a large net gain with converts far outweighing those who leave. But, for those born between 1956-1970, it is almost equal, and for those born between 1971-1994, there is a net loss of 28%, larger than any other religion that Sherkat measured.

When looking at Religious Leaving, we can see the generational changes with younger adults leaving at a far greater rate than earlier generations. The 27.1% for the youngest generation is highest for any measured religion.

Full disclosure, I'm in the cohort of 1971-1994. So the main questions would be, what has changed? Correlation? Access to information? End of days sifting?  But the short answer to the question of Are More People Leaving the Church? The answer seems to be an obvious yes.

Edited August 2, 2018 by HappyJackWagon

[jkwilliams]

13 minutes ago, HappyJackWagon said:

This is an interesting article by David Ostler (former bishop, Stake President, Mission President) who has been studying the issue of faith crisis and the leadership response to it. He also draws heavily on Pew Research and the ongoing research of Reiss & Knoll. There are some interesting conclusions in this paper. I encourage everyone to read the full paper. It's not very long.

Here is a response to survey questions by current local leaders (Bishops and Stake Presidents)

And then there is the response from those who are or have experienced faith crisis.

Though the lack of confidence in the church's ability to aid those in faith crisis is more stark from those who have experienced faith crisis, it appears that many leaders also lack confidence in their ability to aid those in crisis.

Most people recognize that significant changes are occurring in the church and it appears that religious loyalty is down, losses are up, and religious leaving occurs at a much higher rate in those born between 1971-1994.

Full disclosure, I'm in the cohort of 1971-1994. So the main questions would be, what has changed? Correlation? Access to information? End of days sifting?  But the short answer to the question of Are More People Leaving the Church? The answer seems to be an obvious yes.

Ah, you're a mere child! I'm in the 1956-1970 cohort, though closer to 1970. I really don't know what kind of training church leaders have these days regarding faith crises and the issues that prompt them. In my experience with several bishops and stake presidents, only one stake president understood the issues I was dealing with, and he told me that, if he didn't have a testimony, he would think it was a "second-rate 19th-century hoax." But every other church leader I went to for help gave me little more than a blank stare and an exhortation to read the scriptures, pray, and attend the temple, which wasn't helpful because I was already doing that. 

Edited August 2, 2018 by jkwilliams

[Duncan]

I've never heard the term "faith crisis" mentioned at Church or in any meetings. I honestly don't know what Bishops or Stake presidencies would say to someone. Our ward though baptisms have tailed off considerably in the last 2-3 years, but what it's attributable to I don't know. I know the two brethren who are/were ward mission leaders were less than invested in the work and I think that doesn't help any. I wonder too if the nature of a mission has changed, it's more about personal progress more so than baptizing people, but maybe that balance is out of whack. It could be right now there aren't people ready despite the missionaries' persistance

[revelstoked]

I'm in the cohort.  When you ask my cohort to "search and ponder" search means go to Google and then think about what you found.  We are much more likely to exchange notes about our leadership experiences with relative strangers from other wards/stakes.  That feeds into others accounts and so because of the behavior of one leader in an area you are nowhere near now you see the instances where men fail, and project it on the church as a whole.

[jkwilliams]

4 minutes ago, Duncan said:

I've never heard the term "faith crisis" mentioned at Church or in any meetings. I honestly don't know what Bishops or Stake presidencies would say to someone. Our ward though baptisms have tailed off considerably in the last 2-3 years, but what it's attributable to I don't know. I know the two brethren who are/were ward mission leaders were less than invested in the work and I think that doesn't help any. I wonder too if the nature of a mission has changed, it's more about personal progress more so than baptizing people, but maybe that balance is out of whack. It could be right now there aren't people ready despite the missionaries' persistance

I am hoping it's the bolded part above. I have seen firsthand what happens when you focus on numbers of baptisms: in our mission, an activity rate around 12%. In the long term, the church is much better off having fewer baptisms and more genuine conversions, IMO. My brother-in-law's father was a mission president in Canada, and a visiting general authority expressed concern (to put it mildly) about the sudden drop-off in baptisms since he had started his term as mission president. My brother-in-law's father said he could easily bring the numbers up by sending more missionaries into the areas where most people were recent immigrants living in poverty, but based on past history, such people were likely to get baptized and then never set foot in the church again. But he said he would rather focus on genuine conversion, which would lead to more active members in the long terms. He told the GA he would do the former if that's what he wanted, but the GA agreed with his approach.  

[stemelbow]

12 minutes ago, HappyJackWagon said:

Full disclosure, I'm in the cohort of 1971-1994. So the main questions would be, what has changed? Correlation? Access to information? End of days sifting?  But the short answer to the question of Are More People Leaving the Church? The answer seems to be an obvious yes.

Many members I've noticed have really negative views of younger generations, like ages after 1994, because so many are leaving.  I'd imagine in the next five years or so we'd get a better feel for that generation born between1994-2004 (14-24 year olds) or so.  But I'd imagine they are leaving even more quickly and at higher rates, than those born between '71-'94 (i'm close to your age, as you know).  I think members typically see that as signs of the times, and younger people being more selfish and more evil in some way.  At least that's how I hear it.  I think it's far more about information.  The Church is really bent in a not true place right now.  That is the stories and history they promote simply aren't true, all too often.  It's far too easy to see it as uninspired when it can't be trusted.  I'm not saying that 14 year olds are necessarily seeing these details, but I think they are feeling it--feeling it from parents, leaders and friends.  So parents, my age, who may have kids are influencing their kids with this idea that life is not black and white.  And that there are useful ideas to consider, useful courses to pursue outside the Church.  The church simply will continue to fail to meet the needs of it's members.  

Of coruse major changes could come with the Church and really turn this around.  But I'm not seeing it.  

[Duncan]

7 minutes ago, jkwilliams said:

I am hoping it's the bolded part above. I have seen firsthand what happens when you focus on numbers of baptisms: in our mission, an activity rate around 12%. In the long term, the church is much better off having fewer baptisms and more genuine conversions, IMO. My brother-in-law's father was a mission president in Canada, and a visiting general authority expressed concern (to put it mildly) about the sudden drop-off in baptisms since he had started his term as mission president. My brother-in-law's father said he could easily bring the numbers up by sending more missionaries into the areas where most people were recent immigrants living in poverty, but based on past history, such people were likely to get baptized and then never set foot in the church again. But he said he would rather focus on genuine conversion, which would lead to more active members in the long terms. He told the GA he would do the former if that's what he wanted, but the GA agreed with his approach.  

fewer but better converts vs. more but baptized int inactivity people, it's the elusive balance that's tough to find!

[RevTestament]

12 minutes ago, stemelbow said:

Many members I've noticed have really negative views of younger generations, like ages after 1994, because so many are leaving.  I'd imagine in the next five years or so we'd get a better feel for that generation born between1994-2004 (14-24 year olds) or so.  But I'd imagine they are leaving even more quickly and at higher rates, than those born between '71-'94 (i'm close to your age, as you know).  I think members typically see that as signs of the times, and younger people being more selfish and more evil in some way.  At least that's how I hear it.  I think it's far more about information.  The Church is really bent in a not true place right now.  That is the stories and history they promote simply aren't true, all too often.  It's far too easy to see it as uninspired when it can't be trusted.  I'm not saying that 14 year olds are necessarily seeing these details, but I think they are feeling it--feeling it from parents, leaders and friends.  So parents, my age, who may have kids are influencing their kids with this idea that life is not black and white.  And that there are useful ideas to consider, useful courses to pursue outside the Church.  The church simply will continue to fail to meet the needs of it's members.  

Of coruse major changes could come with the Church and really turn this around.  But I'm not seeing it.  

Because you have been taught incorrect interpretations of scripture.

[jkwilliams]

9 minutes ago, Duncan said:

fewer but better converts vs. more but baptized int inactivity people, it's the elusive balance that's tough to find!

Indeed. Unfortunately, I've seen mission presidents (including my own) go all out for numbers, with predictably awful results. The last month of my mission, our mission president set a goal for 1,000 baptisms for the mission, about 3 times the average. He said he wanted us to be "the top baptizing mission in the church." My companion and I were "roving missionaries" in the Amazon rainforest, 600 miles from the mission home and with no telephone, so we decided we were just going to go about our missionary work as usual and not worry about the push for numbers. We had 4 baptisms that month (solid people who were genuinely converted, IMO), and the mission had 960 baptisms.

[jkwilliams]

5 minutes ago, RevTestament said:

Because you have been taught incorrect interpretations of scripture.

Care to elaborate?

[HappyJackWagon]

14 minutes ago, Duncan said:

fewer but better converts vs. more but baptized int inactivity people, it's the elusive balance that's tough to find!

That's actually the point of the "gains and losses from switching" statistic. It shows (at least in that demographic) that there is a 28% loss. Meaning people leaving in contrast to those coming in. So it would seem that stronger people are leaving than are coming in. That is a 30% swing from the next age group which still shows a 2% gain.

Quote

Stemelbow- Many members I've noticed have really negative views of younger generations, like ages after 1994, because so many are leaving.  I'd imagine in the next five years or so we'd get a better feel for that generation born between1994-2004 (14-24 year olds) or so.  But I'd imagine they are leaving even more quickly and at higher rates, than those born between '71-'94 (i'm close to your age, as you know).  I think members typically see that as signs of the times, and younger people being more selfish and more evil in some way.  At least that's how I hear it.  I think it's far more about information.  The Church is really bent in a not true place right now.  That is the stories and history they promote simply aren't true, all too often.  It's far too easy to see it as uninspired when it can't be trusted.  I'm not saying that 14 year olds are necessarily seeing these details, but I think they are feeling it--feeling it from parents, leaders and friends.  So parents, my age, who may have kids are influencing their kids with this idea that life is not black and white.  And that there are useful ideas to consider, useful courses to pursue outside the Church.  The church simply will continue to fail to meet the needs of it's members.

I agree, and I expect those losses will be even bigger. I also agree that it's largely due to information; information taught versus information that can now be accessed. Yet I still think there's a generational difference where it seems older generations value loyalty more than younger generations. Loyalty is usually thought of as a virtue but it isn't always. If loyalty is the end to itself, then it doesn't matter much. People can be loyal to bad/wrong things just as to a good thing. I doubt many people would argue that being loyal to something that is wrong or bad is a good thing. In fact, it sounds more like stubbornness  

So I think there is a generational difference, but I also think the church's move to correlation hit our generation the most. We don't remember times when there was more nuance, diverse opinions and teachings in church. We got the cookie cutter approach and when we realize the cookie cutter approach didn't work it impacted us differently than those who remembered life pre-correlation.

[RevTestament]

Just now, jkwilliams said:

Care to elaborate?

That would take awhile jkwilliams, and I don't have time now. But start with 3 Nephi 20-21 and D&C 85.

[hope_for_things]

1 hour ago, HappyJackWagon said:

This is an interesting article by David Ostler (former bishop, Stake President, Mission President) who has been studying the issue of faith crisis and the leadership response to it. He also draws heavily on Pew Research and the ongoing research of Reiss & Knoll. There are some interesting conclusions in this paper. I encourage everyone to read the full paper. It's not very long.

Thanks for this post, this is very interesting and worthy of continued study.  Just a couple initial comments.  

I'm in the 1971 - 1994 group and was talking to a childhood friend of mine last week who's also gone through the faith crisis/journey in recent years.  My observation is that this is more common in my generation than in generations past as well.  I'm not sure why this would be more frequent for Mormons than other faiths for this generation.  If that data is accurate it kind of turns the narrative I frequently hear on its head, that the LDS church is experiencing less of the effects of movement away from organized religion than other denominations.  

As for church leaders not getting training and resources to help those with faith crisis, this has been one of my biggest concerns and complaints in recent years.  I've met with a number of leaders in my ward and stake on this topic directly, asking for them to address this concern at a local level, expressing how isolating and difficult a faith crisis is to go through, and offering my services to help support people in need.  But unfortunately, I haven't had success getting engagement.  I get empathy from the leaders, but at the end of the day, I don't think they dare take initiative without marching orders from above.  I think they are more fearful of spreading the disease, than they are willing to make any substantive attempts to help.  

Edited August 2, 2018 by hope_for_things

[blueglass]

How much has changed in 3 years?  

In April 2015, Quentin Cook said the church has never been stronger, and people removing their names is going down.  https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2015/04/the-lord-is-my-light?lang=eng

"Elder Cook mentioned that some believe that more members are leaving the Church today and that there is more doubt and unbelief than in the past."

“This is simply not true,” he said. “The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints has never been stronger. The number of members removing their names from the records of the Church has always been very small and is significantly less in recent years than in the past. The increase in demonstrably measurable areas, such as endowed members with a current temple recommend, adult full-tithe payers, and those serving missions, has been dramatic.

“Let me say again, the Church has never been stronger."  footnote24

24.  "Over the last 25 years, the actual number of members leaving the Church has decreased and the Church has almost doubled in size. The percentage leaving is greatly reduced."

https://www.fairmormon.org/blog/2013/01/15/reports-of-the-death-of-the-church-are-greatly-exaggerated

 

[Exiled]

My suggestions on how to keep and maybe gain members:

I think if the church can somehow get to the stage where it can say that maybe JS invented some things in order to promote faith but that history doesn't matter if something good came of it, then maybe the church history crisis can die down. Also, making church more of an enjoyable experience with less repetition and monotony would help. Give the younger generations community service opportunities without having to pressure others to join. The younger generations are more group oriented and nothing spikes that more than a choose ye this day attitude. Ditch the emphasis on authority. Have more activities that engage community without evangelizing the community for the older generations as well. How about renting out the church buildings to other groups or donating the buildings? This would involve the church more in the community.

[clarkgoble]

1 hour ago, HappyJackWagon said:

Most people recognize that significant changes are occurring in the church and it appears that religious loyalty is down, losses are up, and religious leaving occurs at a much higher rate in those born between 1971-1994.

That's a bit misleading since people are leaving over time. That means those less loyal or more willing to leaven likely have left the older the cohort. What you have to compare is the views of people in say the 20-30 age group for each cohort. It's just that this can't be done as the data isn't available. So I'd be careful how you interpret the data. The null hypothesis would be that you'll naturally have loosely committed people and that over time those people will fall away during times of stress or change or else only become nominal worshippers. (i.e. are members in name only)

The big change that's happened societal wide is the loss of that nominal connection that was typical in the 50's through early 90's. Once that starts moving you then have other social effects up to the current generational cohort.

1 hour ago, HappyJackWagon said:

Though the lack of confidence in the church's ability to aid those in faith crisis is more stark from those who have experienced faith crisis, it appears that many leaders also lack confidence in their ability to aid those in crisis.

Effectively I think this is the desire for some silver bullet that would answer all questions and get people to stay. Human psychology just doesn't work that way. While the Church can do more, realistically there's only so much they can do. Some things only come by struggle. And ultimately the only answer often in such crisis is a religious experience where God communicates to the person. What the Church I think should do is focus much more resources onto feeling and recognizing the spirit and also recognizing its counterfeits. That's where I think we're falling down a fair bit. However even if we do better there, ultimately the leader can't do that for someone. Struggles are always personal. We can provide resources, but it's the individual who has to act.

1 hour ago, HappyJackWagon said:

But the short answer to the question of Are More People Leaving the Church? The answer seems to be an obvious yes.

I'm not sure there. We have to distinguish between the question of leaving in net versus leaving in absolute terms. For the latter I mean more as a percentage. After all the Church is bigger so of course in a simple way more people are leaving than when we were  a fraction of the size. We'll see as more religious identification studies come out. However overall the Church's American size has remained remarkably consistent relative to the population of the United States. The big change is the huge decrease the past years in conversion efficiencies. That is we're not bringing as many people into the Church. However I think one need only look at the conversion numbers as tied to the shift in missionary age to see this is largely a problem of our own making. Shift missionary age back and make changes in the missionary programs and numbers would almost certainly increase again. It's just that the Church has decided, I think, that younger missionaries is improving retention numbers in the crucial 18-25 age group. (I confess I've not seen good stats showing that - but that does seem the clear implication)

[Thinking]

36 minutes ago, stemelbow said:

I think members typically see that as signs of the times, and younger people being more selfish and more evil in some way.  At least that's how I hear it.

Too many blame the disaffected and ignore why.

36 minutes ago, stemelbow said:

I think it's far more about information.  The Church is really bent in a not true place right now.  That is the stories and history they promote simply aren't true, all too often.  It's far too easy to see it as uninspired when it can't be trusted.  I'm not saying that 14 year olds are necessarily seeing these details, but I think they are feeling it--feeling it from parents, leaders and friends.  So parents, my age, who may have kids are influencing their kids with this idea that life is not black and white.  And that there are useful ideas to consider, useful courses to pursue outside the Church.  The church simply will continue to fail to meet the needs of it's members.

The leaders know how many members are officially leaving. They also know what the activity rate is. They don't release those numbers. IMO they don't know what to do.

36 minutes ago, stemelbow said:

Of course major changes could come with the Church and really turn this around.  But I'm not seeing it.

I'm not either.

[HappyJackWagon]

8 minutes ago, blueglass said:

How much has changed in 3 years?  

In April 2015, Quentin Cook said the church has never been stronger, and people removing their names is going down.  https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2015/04/the-lord-is-my-light?lang=eng

"Elder Cook mentioned that some believe that more members are leaving the Church today and that there is more doubt and unbelief than in the past."

“This is simply not true,” he said. “The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints has never been stronger. The number of members removing their names from the records of the Church has always been very small and is significantly less in recent years than in the past. The increase in demonstrably measurable areas, such as endowed members with a current temple recommend, adult full-tithe payers, and those serving missions, has been dramatic.

“Let me say again, the Church has never been stronger."  footnote24

24.  "Over the last 25 years, the actual number of members leaving the Church has decreased and the Church has almost doubled in size. The percentage leaving is greatly reduced."

https://www.fairmormon.org/blog/2013/01/15/reports-of-the-death-of-the-church-are-greatly-exaggerated

 

Right. So either the research and the lived experience of many, many members is wrong, or Elder Cook is wrong. I know which I'd vote for. In fact the only real question I have (and I had at the time when I heard him say this) is- is he intentionally wrong, or is he not paying attention? I've heard many debates (many on this board) about whether or not more people are leaving and a number of people refuse to believe that more people are leaving. I'm always astounded by that. Hopefully continued research will help people accept the obvious reality that more people are leaving, and/or struggling through a faith crisis even if they happen to be present at church on Sundays.

 

[Calm]

No time to read elsewhere yet, but curious...

How were study participants found?

[Tacenda]

11 minutes ago, Exiled said:

My suggestions on how to keep and maybe gain members:

I think if the church can somehow get to the stage where it can say that maybe JS invented some things in order to promote faith but that history doesn't matter if something good came of it, then maybe the church history crisis can die down. Also, making church more of an enjoyable experience with less repetition and monotony would help. Give the younger generations community service opportunities without having to pressure others to join. The younger generations are more group oriented and nothing spikes that more than a choose ye this day attitude. Ditch the emphasis on authority. Have more activities that engage community without evangelizing the community for the older generations as well. How about renting out the church buildings to other groups or donating the buildings? This would involve the church more in the community.

This will never happen, one word... "temples". Bold mine...and the rest of your comment would be so awesome, and is currently happening, except for the ditching of authority.

Edited August 2, 2018 by Tacenda

[Calm]

Quote

think members typically see that as signs of the times, and younger people being more selfish and more evil in some way.  At least that's how I hear it.

My grandparents were saying this back in the 60s and from what they said, their grandparents told them the same thing.

[stemelbow]

53 minutes ago, RevTestament said:

Because you have been taught incorrect interpretations of scripture.

What have I been taught?

[HappyJackWagon]

9 minutes ago, clarkgoble said:

That's a bit misleading since people are leaving over time. That means those less loyal or more willing to leaven likely have left the older the cohort. What you have to compare is the views of people in say the 20-30 age group for each cohort. It's just that this can't be done as the data isn't available. So I'd be careful how you interpret the data. The null hypothesis would be that you'll naturally have loosely committed people and that over time those people will fall away during times of stress or change or else only become nominal worshippers. (i.e. are members in name only)

The big change that's happened societal wide is the loss of that nominal connection that was typical in the 50's through early 90's. Once that starts moving you then have other social effects up to the current generational cohort.

Effectively I think this is the desire for some silver bullet that would answer all questions and get people to stay. Human psychology just doesn't work that way. While the Church can do more, realistically there's only so much they can do. Some things only come by struggle. And ultimately the only answer often in such crisis is a religious experience where God communicates to the person. What the Church I think should do is focus much more resources onto feeling and recognizing the spirit and also recognizing its counterfeits. That's where I think we're falling down a fair bit. However even if we do better there, ultimately the leader can't do that for someone. Struggles are always personal. We can provide resources, but it's the individual who has to act.

Interesting take. For me, it appears more like the church's is suffering losses as a result of it's correlation efforts and white washing of history coming home to roost, especially for the generation that grew up knowing nothing different. I can't tell you how many times I've heard "you should have known", mostly by those in older generations. I think this is because they did know, because they were part of the church before correlation was in full-swing. They experienced a different church than the very narrow narrative of the church I grew up with.

I'm not sure there. We have to distinguish between the question of leaving in net versus leaving in absolute terms. For the latter I mean more as a percentage. After all the Church is bigger so of course in a simple way more people are leaving than when we were  a fraction of the size. We'll see as more religious identification studies come out. However overall the Church's American size has remained remarkably consistent relative to the population of the United States. The big change is the huge decrease the past years in conversion efficiencies. That is we're not bringing as many people into the Church. However I think one need only look at the conversion numbers as tied to the shift in missionary age to see this is largely a problem of our own making. Shift missionary age back and make changes in the missionary programs and numbers would almost certainly increase again. It's just that the Church has decided, I think, that younger missionaries is improving retention numbers in the crucial 18-25 age group. (I confess I've not seen good stats showing that - but that does seem the clear implication)

I think it's way too simplistic to blame conversion numbers on the missionary age. Numbers had been declining long before that occurred. I agree that the change is a retention program, but like you, I haven't seen any evidence that it's working. The church obviously is studying and tracking these things. It would be interesting to see the results of their studies. As a membership, I think we deserve to know the numbers and the possible effects of church policies.

 

[stemelbow]

31 minutes ago, blueglass said:

How much has changed in 3 years?  

In April 2015, Quentin Cook said the church has never been stronger, and people removing their names is going down.  https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2015/04/the-lord-is-my-light?lang=eng

"Elder Cook mentioned that some believe that more members are leaving the Church today and that there is more doubt and unbelief than in the past."

“This is simply not true,” he said. “The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints has never been stronger. The number of members removing their names from the records of the Church has always been very small and is significantly less in recent years than in the past. The increase in demonstrably measurable areas, such as endowed members with a current temple recommend, adult full-tithe payers, and those serving missions, has been dramatic.

“Let me say again, the Church has never been stronger."  footnote24

24.  "Over the last 25 years, the actual number of members leaving the Church has decreased and the Church has almost doubled in size. The percentage leaving is greatly reduced."

https://www.fairmormon.org/blog/2013/01/15/reports-of-the-death-of-the-church-are-greatly-exaggerated

 

The biggest problem with Elder Cook's comment is how could the number of members removing names possibly be significantly less in recent years than past years?  I could buy it if we are talking as a percentage of the whole.  

 

If one takes the number of members year over year, number of converts and number of COR, add and subtract to find the difference, the biggest difference on record, that is the most members lost over a year's time, was from 2013-2014.  

Year          Difference

2000	39548
2001	36473
2002	37244
2003	78674
2004	49541
2005	51211
2006	59114
2007	47523
2008	74585
2009	83483
2010	86729
2011	91350
2012	53476
2013	98876
2014	122903
2015	110,090
2016	101,159
2017	104,748

Recent years, even those most recent in 2015 have the highest numbers.  That happens in a growing organization though.  

If we're seeing this figure as a percent of the whole, again 2014 is the highest on record:

Year        % of whole

2000	0.36%
2001	0.32%
2002	0.32%
2003	0.66%
2004	0.40%
2005	0.41%
2006	0.46%
2007	0.36%
2008	0.55%
2009	0.60%
2010	0.61%
2011	0.63%
2012	0.36%
2013	0.66%
2014	0.80%
2015	0.70%
2016	0.64%
2017	0.65%

it could be there have been far more excommunications in recent years, I suppose, or far more deaths in relation to the whole, I guess.  But it feels unlikely to me.  

 

[stemelbow]

16 minutes ago, Calm said:

My grandparents were saying this back in the 60s and from what they said, their grandparents told them the same thing.

Exactly.  I think that'll always be.