Losing Millennials

[carbon dioxide]

1 hour ago, cinepro said:

What are you referring to specifically?  Certainly there may be "bad times" ahead for some people, but compared to how humans have treated each other over the past few centuries in general, I think a strong argument can be made that for most people, this is the best the world has ever been and it will keep getting better.

The only thing is getting better is technology and most technology is dependent on the electrical grid and power.  Any disruption to the power grid directly or indirectly by war, natural disaster, economic issues, ect wipes it all out.  The only thing that keeps us from returning to 19th century standard of living is the power grid. 

[Jeanne]

2 minutes ago, carbon dioxide said:

The only thing is getting better is technology and most technology is dependent on the electrical grid and power.  Any disruption to the power grid directly or indirectly by war, natural disaster, economic issues, ect wipes it all out.  The only thing that keeps us from returning to 19th century standard of living is the power grid. 

As even an untechy ...non millennial baby boomer...don't scare me..!  I would make a lousy pioneer! I worry about things like this..and then sometimes I look back when people wanted to know my name..not my SSN or account no...but my NAME!

[jkwilliams]

2 minutes ago, Jeanne said:

As even an untechy ...non millennial baby boomer...don't scare me..!  I would make a lousy pioneer! I worry about things like this..and then sometimes I look back when people wanted to know my name..not my SSN or account no...but my NAME!

Think about that. The future of the church relies on people being afraid. At least according to some people. 

[JLHPROF]

14 minutes ago, jkwilliams said:

Think about that. The future of the church relies on people being afraid. At least according to some people. 

The future of the Church is already determined.  It relies on nothing but God.

[Robert F. Smith]

On 7/23/2016 at 5:48 PM, Five Solas said:

There’s some anecdotal evidence to suggest the LDS Church is particularly challenged attracting and retaining what demographers call the “Millennial Generation” (at least here in the United States).  A few weeks back I authored a thread about the decline of LDS in urban centers and quickly discovered the trend has a generational angle to it.  I won’t give it a full recap, but here in Seattle fully half the “Young Single Adult” wards (serving 18 – 31 year-olds) have been shuttered in the past 10 years (University 1st and University 4th—both gone, University 2nd and 3rd soldier on).  A number of other examples were given.  If you missed it, you can read it *here.* 

Among the ideas contributed on that thread was that Millennials disproportionately prefer “high density living that is more green” (green as in reducing one’s carbon footprint, not green as in suburban lawns).  By contrast, the LDS ideal for living looks a bit more like *this* (fast forward to see this LDS stalwart/example motoring about in his huge V-8 powered "Tundra" pickup truck w/ custom rims dispensing his good deeds).   Indeed, this video adds its own example to my thread (about 3 minutes in) as the patriarch laments his Millennial daughter did not share his LDS values and left the family (or was asked to leave).  The viewer can only hope she found her way to Seattle & now has a promising career at a local tech company. 

:..................................................................

The most obvious place Millennial attrition would show up would be in the missionary numbers.  But with changes lowing the age in 2012, there’s a bubble that makes it difficult to discern any underlying trend.  
What do folks think?  Is the LDS Church out of step with Millennials?  Is there a potential issue here for the long-term health of the LDS Church?  Is there any way to test such a hypothesis?

I’ll throw in a little survey – I know we’ve got a least a couple Millennials on the board (Blue Dreams, Video Game Junkie).

--Erik

I'd like to see some real numbers, not "anecdotal evidence," which is worthless.

You are right to mention missionary numbers as a test case, and yet there has not been the predicted dimunution in missionary numbers over time.  Why?

Your "LDS ideal for living" seems absurd, and I'm wondering whether that is anecdotal as well.

[The Nehor]

3 hours ago, Five Solas said:

That's a really interesting idea.  In Seattle's example where the YSA wards have been reduced from 4 to 2, you're suggesting the number of honest-to-goodness, worthy, believing members in the local YSA program is actually unchanged.  That what existed previously was a high percentage of fakers (a.k.a., cultural Mormons) and these now find their "social benefits" elsewhere. 

Having been personally involved in the local program throughout the 1990's and into the early part of the last decade when it reached its peak in terms of membership, a 50% faker number seems high, but it certainly wasn't zero (I guess you could say I was one).  What do you think the cultural Mormon ratio is in your ward, Nehor?  Do you think it is lower now than 10, 15, or 20 years ago? 

Do others think this explanation has merit?  

Also, curious if you think the "social benefits" have been in some way been reduced. 

--Erik

I think Seattle in particular is most likely the result of the cost of living increasing. I could live there now but when I was in a YSA ward I would have had a hard time paying rent.

I don't consider cultural Mormons "fakers" and refuse to refer to them as such so no I do not think your idea has merit.

I don't think the social benefits have changed much. More likely there is an increase in social penalties.

[The Nehor]

1 hour ago, jkwilliams said:

Think about that. The future of the church relies on people being afraid. At least according to some people. 

I think those people are wrong.

[halconero]

Eh, it's anecdotal, but having lived in 3 of Canada's major centers I haven't seen the drop off we're talking about, but rather the exact opposite among Millenials. We're growing, getting more actively involved with the temple than ever before, and are more cognizant of issues than previous generations.

[halconero]

I'd also say that for those of us staying there's some huge advantages available to us. Most are not part of the old generation's somewhat general callousness with regards to social issues that I sometimes see, but without compromising standards either. Our fortitude in the teachings of the apostles and prophets is matched with empathy and compassion for those who struggle because most of us have encountered numerous examples of those struggles among peers.

[Five Solas]

36 minutes ago, The Nehor said:

I think Seattle in particular is most likely the result of the cost of living increasing. I could live there now but when I was in a YSA ward I would have had a hard time paying rent.

I don't consider cultural Mormons "fakers" and refuse to refer to them as such so no I do not think your idea has merit.

I don't think the social benefits have changed much. More likely there is an increase in social penalties.

You had a *very* interesting hypothesis back there, Nehor.  Why so quick to abandon it? 

(Really, "cost of living"--you now suggest young LDS can't compete economically for housing while other groups of similar age demographic can?  Keep in mind those wards meet in the LDS Institute building across the street from the University of Washington, which isn't exactly suffering from lack of enrollment and in fact has posted significant growth over the past decade.)

And why is "faker" an inappropriate term in the context of a "cultural Mormon" (note I included myself in that category previously)?  You seem almost indignant about it ("refuse to refer").  A common dictionary would suggest you're being a bit silly. 

--Erik

____________________________

So I turned myself to face me
But I've never caught a glimpse
Of how the others must see the faker
I'm much too fast to take that test

--David Bowie, 1971

 

[sunstoned]

2 hours ago, carbon dioxide said:

The only thing is getting better is technology and most technology is dependent on the electrical grid and power.  Any disruption to the power grid directly or indirectly by war, natural disaster, economic issues, ect wipes it all out.  The only thing that keeps us from returning to 19th century standard of living is the power grid. 

I disagree.  Many things are getting better.  Medicine, health, food distribution, education, etc., etc.  Sure we have a long way to go, but the question put to people who think things are getting worse is for them to point out in the timeline of history exactly where is this utopia that we are devolving from?  This is a simple question, that none of the sky is falling crowd seems to be able to answer.

[The Nehor]

50 minutes ago, Five Solas said:

You had a *very* interesting hypothesis back there, Nehor.  Why so quick to abandon it? 

(Really, "cost of living"--you now suggest young LDS can't compete economically for housing while other groups of similar age demographic can?  Keep in mind those wards meet in the LDS Institute building across the street from the University of Washington, which isn't exactly suffering from lack of enrollment and in fact has posted significant growth over the past decade.)

And why is "faker" an inappropriate term in the context of a "cultural Mormon" (note I included myself in that category previously)?  You seem almost indignant about it ("refuse to refer").  A common dictionary would suggest you're being a bit silly. 

--Erik

____________________________

So I turned myself to face me
But I've never caught a glimpse
Of how the others must see the faker
I'm much too fast to take that test

--David Bowie, 1971

 

I didn't abandon it. I just reject your perverted version of it. It was a cute attempt at twisting what I said but you need to be a little less transparently disingenuous. Just try harder next time.

[VideoGameJunkie]

Quick OT how do you block a poster?

[halconero]

2 hours ago, sunstoned said:

I disagree.  Many things are getting better.  Medicine, health, food distribution, education, etc., etc.  Sure we have a long way to go, but the question put to people who think things are getting worse is for them to point out in the timeline of history exactly where is this utopia that we are devolving from?  This is a simple question, that none of the sky is falling crowd seems to be able to answer.

Climate change wise somewhere around the turn of the mid 1800's. Antibiotics wise around the mid 80's.

Last time I brought this up repeatedly it wasn't addressed, but I don't know if it was because you missed it. I'm part of the sky is falling crowd, but more from an environmental/healthcare side of things, and the science backs me.

[Coreyb]

Being born in 1991 I fit into the category of millennial, though I dislike the term, and the arbitrary categorizing for that matter. All I can give is my anecdotal experience as it relates to my peers, and that is that most of the Mormon kids I grew up with in various western states no longer practice the religion. I can't say how many have officially disassociated, but my guess would be only a few. A few of these can regularly be found attacking LDS truth claims online, but many are critical of official LDS stances on topics such as LGBT issues and alcohol/marijuana laws in Utah.

[VideoGameJunkie]

2 hours ago, VideoGameJunkie said:

Figured out

Nevermind.

[CV75]

In the USA, millennials have surpassed baby boomers as the largest living generation (per U.S. Census Bureau). http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/04/25/millennials-overtake-baby-boomers/ So, millennials would be most of the US population, and now considered to be “most US people” Might the question also be asked, “The LDS Church is having greater difficulty attracting and retaining most people than with previous generations?”

Also, I wonder what world population statistic show.

In any case, the growth in this cohort also seems to be coinciding with a zenith in mass media marketing sophistication, which I’ve observed the Church using, offering the best chances for everyone.

I think the answer is in the scriptures, which is why we keep trying! It is interesting that millennials / most people, so far, seem to consider themselves to be a relatively small group, perhaps due to sensitivity about diversity. So, their “dominions upon the face of the earth [will be] small.”

[Storm Rider]

10 hours ago, halconero said:

Eh, it's anecdotal, but having lived in 3 of Canada's major centers I haven't seen the drop off we're talking about, but rather the exact opposite among Millennials. We're growing, getting more actively involved with the temple than ever before, and are more cognizant of issues than previous generations.

Your post motivated me to actually think about my millennial family members and their friends and how their actions/lives conflict with the proposed idea that millennials are less interested in the Church of Jesus Christ.  In just the past two weeks two of my single nieces in their early 20's are going through the temple for the first time. Our extended family does have inactive members.  I guess my advice is that we have to be more careful with broad brushstrokes when talking about these large social groups.  

It does appear that our nation is becoming more secular in their approach to life and society and that influence will be felt by our members and prospective members.  I see more of a division between those who pursue righteousness - in this context I mean a closer spiritual relationship with God - and those who reject God and anything having to do with God whether it is religion, morals, or the concept of a universal truth.  

I think the divide will continue to grow and become progressively more acrimonious.  This does not cause me to be more concerned or fearful, but more aware of the importance to recognize and distinguish where an influence is coming from and what is the end game of that influence.  Great things will happen for both good and ill.  We each have to determine where we will stand as we are forced to decide by a society going awry.  

[Jeanne]

9 hours ago, VideoGameJunkie said:

Quick OT how do you block a poster?

Don't block me VGJ!! 

[HappyJackWagon]

On ‎7‎/‎23‎/‎2016 at 6:51 PM, carbon dioxide said:

We live in a more wicked world and a world with more distractions.  I am surprised the Church as done as well as it has in the cesspool that the world is.  Noah did not find many converts in his time and our world is worse than what he had to deal with.  Yet we actually find some converts.  I don't think that means Noah was a crappy missionary but that it just been a miracle we have done as well as we have.  It is my personal belief that though the field was white and ready to harvest in the early days of the church, the field has largely turned brown and dying. 

This is such a pessimistic view of the world. Personally, I find a great deal to be hopeful about but if we're afraid to change then we will likely always be disappointed with the world around us.

Quote

There’s some anecdotal evidence to suggest the LDS Church is particularly challenged attracting and retaining what demographers call the “Millennial Generation” (at least here in the United States). 

This is an interesting question all churches are struggling with, not just ours. There's a good Mormon Matters podcast from last week that addresses issues of millennials and the need for further research to understand them. Jana Reiss talks about the Next Mormons and a research project she's trying to kick off to try and get to an understanding of what makes Millenials tick. http://www.mormonmatters.org/2016/07/22/337-the-next-mormons/

One of my main takeaways was about the general lack of relationship millenials have with institutions on a very broad basis. They are less likely to join groups or identify with one church. Past research has even shown that even though a Millenial may attend a specific church regularly they are less likely to claim it as a part of their identity. The podcast also talks briefly about Millenials and family dynamics and delves into issues of class and how a family narrative may not speak to millenials and various economic classes because they simply can't relate to it.

There is so much we don't understand about how culture is evolving and how there is a growing disconnect between a mostly static church practice and culture. In other words, what worked well in 1940-70 when many of the GA's were growing up, may not work well now. Many millenials just don't relate to an Ozzy and Harriet kind of worldview or lived experience.

Edited July 25, 2016 by HappyJackWagon

[VideoGameJunkie]

4 hours ago, Jeanne said:

Don't block me VGJ!! 

Jeanne you're awesome I would never.

[Five Solas]

On 7/24/2016 at 7:39 PM, Robert F. Smith said:

I'd like to see some real numbers, not "anecdotal evidence," which is worthless.

You are right to mention missionary numbers as a test case, and yet there has not been the predicted dimunution in missionary numbers over time.  Why?

Your "LDS ideal for living" seems absurd, and I'm wondering whether that is anecdotal as well.

Certainly not worthless!  An anecdote (YSA ward closures in a growing city) may lead to a hypothesis (the LDS Church has a problem retaining Millennials) which in turn may lead to further exploration (such as we're doing here).  Regarding missionary numbers, I already made mention of the bubble and how there's not a clear trend--is there really more to be had on that subject right now?  If so, please bring it!

And regarding the video I linked previously (produced by LDS Philanthropies, "Journey to Become")--"absurd" or not, it's certainly illustrative of contemporary LDS ideals or values.  How could it not be?  The whole point of it is to inspire others to be like Reed Mellor and make similar contributions.  Surely you don't think the producers/directors/script writers were incompetent & didn't know their LDS audience.  My point is that those ideals may out of step with the values of Millennials (see my OP), a point underscored in that same video by the example Mr. Mellor's own Millennial daughter leaving the family (or asked to leave) over her values.  Fast forward ~ 3 minutes to see him discuss it with his wife if you missed it the first time.  

A curious post, Robert F. Smith, but maybe I'm just not following it. 

--Erik

Edited July 26, 2016 by Five Solas
extra word

[Five Solas]

23 hours ago, Jeanne said:

Don't block me VGJ!! 

Don't block me either, VGJ!  I enjoy your posts, usually.

;0)

--Erik

[stemelbow]

I don't know that people are leaving at an increasing rate these days.  I mean we've been given signs that it is true, but I wager one of the problems here is the way to gauge the number of people who leave is more accessible today.   it used to be people just quietly stopped and gave respect to the Church because you just do that with religion.  That's not as common today.  Now people who stop also feel obliged to take a stand on why.  The spirit of Lowry Nelson is far more common today among millennials.  Which, in my mind, is a good thing.  The Church will adapt at some point.  But as of now, digging in heels and blaming everyone else is kind of lame and will only contribute to the problem. 

Our good friend Mr. Williams is right, from the first page or wherever it was stated.  The church is losing control of the narrative thanks in large part to thoughtful people who helped bring into light why the dominant narrative does not work--many of whom are Church members.  The Church is trying to adapt and it seems to me is struggling to do so.  I'm eager to watch more and more unfold. 

[Robert F. Smith]

1 hour ago, Five Solas said:

Certainly not worthless!  An anecdote (YSA ward closures in a growing city) may lead to a hypothesis (the LDS Church has a problem retaining Millennials) which in turn may lead to further exploration (such as we're doing here).  Regarding missionary numbers, I already made mention of the bubble and how there's not a clear trend--is there really more to be had on that subject right now?  If so, please bring it!

Using anecdotal evidence to conclude that "the LDS Church has a problem retaining millennials" is just irresponsible and worthless -- no better than rumormongering. Scientific sampling techniques, on the other hand, have real meaning.  Previously on this board, we heard that the high missionary numbers were just a bubble and could not be sustained.  That prediction has not come true.  Just the opposite.  Pardon me for wanting to see real numbers.

And regarding the video I linked previously (produced by LDS Philanthropies, "Journey to Become")--"absurd" or not, it's certainly illustrative of contemporary LDS ideals or values.  How could it not be?  The whole point of it is to inspire others to be like Reed Mellor and make similar contributions.  Surely you don't think the producers/directors/script writers were incompetent & didn't know their LDS audience.  My point is that those ideals may out of step with the values of Millennials (see my OP), a point underscored in that same video by the example Mr. Mellor's own Millennial daughter leaving the family (or asked to leave) over her values.  Fast forward ~ 3 minutes to see him discuss it with his wife if you missed it the first time.  

You said that “the LDS ideal for living looks a bit more like *this* (fast forward to see this LDS stalwart/example motoring about in his huge V-8 powered "Tundra" pickup truck w/ custom rims dispensing his good deeds).”   –based on 2012 LDS Philanthropies video, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNRlg6O8ekU

Your version of the LDS ideal seems cockeyed and negative to me, Erik.  Especially in a video dedicated to good child-rearing and doing acts of service.  The heavy truck was not the centerpiece, but probably is needed by anyone engaging in heavy construction (as in the video).  Since I don't need that, I have a Prius -- is that not an LDS value such as frugality and good environmental citizenship (I also have solar panels on my home FWIW)?  Why did your ideals cause you to key in on the least significant issue?  Or do you see only what you want to see?

A curious post, Robert F. Smith, but maybe I'm just not following it. 

--Erik