"the Church Has Never Been Stronger" -- Elder Cook

[Teancum]

So I have been thinking about this and again most this is anecdotal and a bit speculative or at least some what of an extrapolation. So no this won't meet Mr. Lloyd's demand of actual stats to prove anything. This is impossible to do since the Church does not publish them nor did Elder Cook share anything to substantiate what he said.  Maybe he will in the future.  A 20 minute talk is a tough place to provide such date in.

 

A few years ago when still on our stake high council our SP discussed major concerns the leadership has over activation.  He had just attended a training sessions of SPs that had a 70 in attendance.  Our SP discussed our activation rate for our area...not just stake but area.  Our area covers the Northeast and north Atlantic region of the USA.  Our stake he said was at about 42% activity which was slightly higher than the area.  But he said it was much better than the world wide rate which he said was about 35% or so.  He also said there are non US countries where the activity rate is much lower than that.  

Again, simply what he related while emphasizing we had to focus more on activation and even use missionaries more in that activity.

 

Then as noted my MP friend has wards in his mission (a large South American city) that have 3% activity.  He has emphasized activation over even new members and is very focused on the quality of new converts and taking time to make sure there is more commitment.  My son in law and my step mother are from Brazil.  They talk of 20% activity rates in many of the wards there. 

 

Last of all keep in mind when someone resigns or just stops coming who has been active and solid there is a ripple effect. Take John Dehlin for example. He is not on the roles now. But his wife and children are.  Yet none of them are participating and likely won't.  So there are 5 other people not accounted for in the stats that are out.  My guess is this happens often.  A husband may resign.  The rest of the family is still on the riled but they stop coming. Or the parents just drop out and the children who may be on the roles stop coming and they never become full active tithe paying temple attending members.

 

This does not mean the church is not strong.  In fact it could be losing lots of members and still be and remain strong. 

 

I really don't see any out there calling for the demise of the Church due to mass resignations.   What I see is many arguing that there is a high number of people becoming disaffected and it is coming from the ranks of the formerly very strong and committed.

[Duncan]

There is that video with a QA session with Elders Oaks and Jazzband or something and one guy asked Elder Oaks that the sisters are losing hope of marrying due to few active men available and he said the Church is losing men at a high rate(I think he said) so if you want to solve the dating problem then go after the men. Inactivity among YSA has a theme on a million blogs and singles and dating and all this kind of thing.

 

FWIW My stake is reported to have 4500 members (which is totally ficticious) We only have about 3200, about 1200 are what you would call active and how many believe who knows. Of those 1200 800 are endowed with only about 500 ish with a current temple recommend

[Tacenda]

I think the strong LDS, are getting stronger with the heightened hastening of the work mentality. And the world's going to pot thinking. And the members seeing the doubters makes them dig in their heels more and not waver, thus becoming stronger.

[sethpayne]

 

Meanwhile, Elder Cook's statement absolutely is more valid than the naysayers' because he is in a position to observe what they cannot observe and is privy to information they don't have. And he is not obligated to prove anything until the accusers have backed up their accusations.

 

 

I had a guy stop by the house yesterday.  He was telling me about this amazing investment and talked about the strength of the company he wanted me to invest in etc...  When I asked to see the financial reports and data to support his claim he refused to share them but assured me that he was in a position to observe what I cannot observe and is privy to information I don't have.  Thus, his statement carries the weight of absolute truth and is more valid than whatever skepticism I may have towards his claim.

 

Let's just be honest, Scott.  You believe Elder Cook because he is Elder Cook.  If Elder Cook or President Monson, or any of the member of the Twelve told you that Quakers lived on the moon, you would believe it and defend it!  You accept everything Cook says because of his calling.  Data?  Not required.  Evidence?  No need.  Why?  Because Elder Cook.

 

At least be upfront an honest about it.  You believe Elder Cook is called of God and you should accept anything and everything he says.  My goodness, you even gave up singing harmony parts of hymns because it was "what you were told to do" by some Stake leader.  To be clear, I don't see any problem with this.  It's your faith and your belief.  It works for you.  But doing a victory lap while proclaiming that Elder Cook's statement eviscerates Church critics on this point is just plain silly.  Elder Cook made a claim.  He provided no evidence to support that claim.  You choose to believe it.  Others are skeptical.  Perhaps the Church will add "name removal", inactivity, and former TR holders who are no longer active to the statistical report.  Odd how the Church only shares some numbers with the membership.  Especially odd that Elder Cook would make a claim about numbers the Church chooses not to share.  

 

P.S. -- I've meant to ask you why the DN pulled down the very very low activity rate statistics from their website last year.  Happened within 24 hours IIRC.

 

P.P.S. -- What do you think?  Should I invest with the guy that stopped by my house?  He is in a position to know things I don't know....

Edited April 6, 2015 by sethpayne

[ALarson]

Hmmmm... our stake just split, we have new wards and new ward boundaries, and we still have to open up the overflow every Sunday (probably need to split again) - we're definitely seeing growth in Tx.  ... We have a few "strong and well off" (oil $) members down here too

Is this due to new families (or singles) being baptized, or is it members moving into the area?

 

I ask this because my area is shrinking and I'm wondering if it's just people moving out of here.  I do know of several families who have gone inactive, but I think it's a combination of this and people moving that is causing wards and stakes to be dissolved in my area.  Maybe our loss is your gain?

Edited April 6, 2015 by ALarson

[sethpayne]

Is this due to new families (or singles) being baptized, or is it members moving into the area?

 

I ask this because my area is shrinking and I'm wondering if it's just people moving out of here.  I do know of several families who have gone inactive, but I think it's a combination of this and people moving that is causing wards and stakes to be dissolved in my area.  Maybe our loss is your gain?

 

My area is pretty stagnant.  Pretty steady numbers over the past 20 years of so.  I know some who have gone inactive but I haven't seen any large exodus.  Just no growth either.

[ALarson]

My area is pretty stagnant.  Pretty steady numbers over the past 20 years of so.  I know some who have gone inactive but I haven't seen any large exodus.  Just no growth either.

Yes, our ward had one baptism last year (an older, single sister) and none so far this year.  We've had 3 sets of missionaries in our ward too (2 sets Elders and 1 set sisters) where before the surge we had to share missionaries with another ward.  

Edited April 6, 2015 by ALarson

[sethpayne]

Found Cinepro's thread:

 

http://www.mormondialogue.org/topic/64391-the-worldwide-attendance-statistics-for-the-lds-church-are/

 

35 are adult males
42 are adult females
13 are in Primary
10 are youths
36 attend sacrament meeting on a weekly basis
five can’t read or write
21 of the members of our ward live in countries with less than $9,200 per person gross domestic product

 

 

 

Scott -- why would the DN pull this report so quickly from the website?  What was the editorial thought-process behind this decision?

 

I have to tell you this stat popped out:

 

21 of the members of our ward live in countries with less than $9,200 per person gross domestic product

 

Wow.  21 or of the 35 active ward members are only in a position to pay very little tithing.  And I mean VERY little.  That leaves 14/100 LDS Church members to financially sustain the Church.  And some of those are kids so the actual number is probably a little lower.  That's surprising to me.

Edited April 6, 2015 by sethpayne

[Thinking]

Then I repeat what I said before: If the naysayers, for whatever reason,  lack data to back up their assertions about mass apostasy from the Church then they darn well better forbear from making such assertions. And you ought to think more critically about what they are saying before swallowing it whole.

 

Meanwhile, Elder Cook's statement absolutely is more valid than the naysayers' because he is in a position to observe what they cannot observe and is privy to information they don't have. And he is not obligated to prove anything until the accusers have backed up their accusations.

 

I'll use the same analogy with you. If you were falsely accused of beating your children, would you think it fair to assume a priori you were guilty until you could prove your innocence? Or would it be the fair thing to first expect the accusers to prove their accusations?

 

This principle is so elementary, I am puzzled by the inability of some here to get it.

 

If I was falsely accused of beating my children, but then I refused to allow my children to be examined...

 

You are forgetting one important thing. Elder Cook freely discussed this in conference. He was not being interviewed. This was not a legal proceeding. He brought it up.

 

It's not unreasonable for people to guess that many people are leaving the LDS Church when the traffic at ex-LDS websites is noted. The only actual data is held by the LDS Church, and it won't release the numbers.

[Garden Girl]

Here in my area of the Oregon Coast (pop. approx 7000), my ward has grown steadily over the years... 20 years ago our building was one half the size of the building we now have... expansion included the new chapel, cultural hall, kitchen and additional classrooms and offices... even though numbers fluctuated (particularly due to reduced lumber and fishing industries), the ward has grown steadily with both move-ins and new baptisms.  Tourism has become our major "industry."   

Holidays, particularly 3-day holidays, see our ward balloon from our normal about 175+ in attendance to 300 - 400+.  We had to expand our parking lot because of increased visitors on a regular basis... We do love our visitors.  There's also a ward about 20 miles south in Newport, and one about 20 miles north in Tillamook/Cloverdale.

 

GG

[ALarson]

If I was falsely accused of beating my children, but then I refused to allow my children to be examined...

 

 

That's not the best analogy, IMO (repeatedly posted by Scott Lloyd).  

Of course, no one should be considered guilty when accused and should be allowed to defend themselves, but you would have to defend yourself if child protection services showed up at your door.

Edited April 6, 2015 by ALarson

[Gray]

If the statistics that were given today in General Conference can be trusted, the Church grew at the slowest rate since 1974.  This, despite the huge increase in missionaries.

 

As Cinepro just said, I think Elder Cook has a much different definition of "stronger" than I do.

 

The thing about growth as a percentage of total is that very modest growth of a small organization looks great as a percentage (10 members plus 10 more is 100% growth), but large growth in a large organization looks small as a percentage (10,000 new members of a church with 1,000,000 members is only 1% growth). The growth rate of any church as it gets larger will start to plateau, even if the actual increase in members stays static. 

[Stargazer]

The ruckus over the Big Bang may be premature. People should wait until that piece of the jigsaw puzzle is fully complete before they stake their spiritual life on it, as there is a new model that shows there was no big bang, no singularity and the universe is eternal. No one is about to shout it from the roof tops though. it'll be buried as deep as the Hadron Collider.

 

http://phys.org/news/2015-02-big-quantum-equation-universe.html

 

 

edited to add: Here is an interesting tidbit: The question is, why did the BB theorists circle the wagons instead of dealing with the findings from the deep space observatory at Apache Ridge in New Mexico showing mature "granny" galaxies at the greatest distances, impossible for a universal age of 13.7 billion years?

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2014-03-particles-smaller-higgs-particle.html#jCp

 

 

It seems no one wants to let go of theories they have much time and money invested in.

I think you posted one or threads over from the one you intended!

[stemelbow]

I think the Church is more open now than it has been in the past, even if it has a ways to go. But in my mind, more open contributes to stronger, so I'd say the Church is stronger. And surely the Church has more members of record. There has to be some strength gained as numbers increase, you'd think.

As for how many people are leaving these days? beats me. All I know is every week I hear from my fellow members learning of new family and friends who a leaving the Church over issues, much like Elder Jensen characterized it, which relate to doctrine and history. As I reach out to old friends and family who I have not been in touch with, I too learn there are plenty in my spheres who are becoming disaffected and many of those are leaving. I suppose it may have always been this way. We lay people are just getting a better feel for these departures with all the social media and such. Whatever the case, it's all very discouraging to think about.

I hate to say it, saying that the Church is stronger than ever when we're all seeing this, feels a little dismissive. It'd be awesome to see the figures that went into Elder Cook's assessment. But we can't, so I suppose we're supposed to just forget it and pretend the problems aren't there. It's tough to have heard from Marlin Jensen about apostasy, the likes of which we haven't seen since Kirtland, then a few years later have someone say the exact opposite.

The slowing of the growth rate should say something to all of this though--a 70 year low is a little disconcerting, when we're supposed to think the Church, in terms of numbers and activity, is stronger than ever. What was the point of increasing our missionary force if it decreased our growth rate? That'd be nice to hear Elder Cook address. It'd be nice to have a new missionary purpose, at least for me. New programs and stronger emphasis on service rather than baptisms. Maybe the old' sales force mentality needs another look?

I don't know, this from Elder Cook, seems to raise more questions for me. But I get the desire to shut up the critics. Many people are out there mocking the Church in every way, saying it is dying and will be gone in a few years. That's an extreme, only a very few (yes far fewer than the number of people having their names taken off, I'm sure). Trying to shut them up seems pointless to me. Trying to shut members up about concerns of family and friends leaving is something I'd be very concerned about. I don't know that's the intent here at all, but if it is, I'd be very disappointed.

[stemelbow]

The thing about growth as a percentage of total is that very modest growth of a small organization looks great as a percentage (10 members plus 10 more is 100% growth), but large growth in a large organization looks small as a percentage (10,000 new members of a church with 1,000,000 members is only 1% growth). The growth rate of any church as it gets larger will start to plateau, even if the actual increase in members stays static.

Hey Gray I agree to an extent. But with the Church being less than 1% of the world's population, you'd think the Church, though seemingly large in numbers, is actually very small relatively speaking. It seems there are so many yet to hear of and know about the Church, growth should still be going stronger than ever. But it's slowed. Which is discouraging. I could agree with your comment above if we are only talking about the Church in the US, or perhaps even in the whole of the "western" world.

[Gray]

 

P.S. -- I've meant to ask you why the DN pulled down the very very low activity rate statistics from their website last year.  Happened within 24 hours IIRC.

 

 

 

I remember that. I believe the figure quoted was 36% activity rate, yes?

[Gray]

Hey Gray I agree to an extent. But with the Church being less than 1% of the world's population, you'd think the Church, though seemingly large in numbers, is actually very small relatively speaking. It seems there are so many yet to hear of and know about the Church, growth should still be going stronger than ever. But it's slowed. Which is discouraging. I could agree with your comment above if we are only talking about the Church in the US, or perhaps even in the whole of the "western" world.

 

Well, it could be that church growth is stagnating. I don't know and it doesn't really matter to me either way. The growth rate for the Catholic Church is only 1.14%. But that represents 14 million new Catholics, which is really a huge number.

 

We do tend to be unduly swayed by anecdotal evidence. The problem is anecdotes have no statistical validity. There was recently a family of five baptized in my ward. Nothing like that has happened in the 10 years I've been there.

 

On the other hand, a family of four just moved from the ward, and I recently found out they've left the church. The husband is a PhD and college professor. You could make all kinds of inferences from either story. But the only reason I know about the family of four leaving is I'm Facebook friends with them. 20 years ago they would have left and I wouldn't have known about it. 

 

People leaving the church are now much more visible, so we tend to think it's an increasing occurrence. Is it really though? I have no idea.

 

But, I guess the issue with long-time church members leaving is that that leaves a big dent in the strength of whatever ward they would have been a part of. Retention rate for new converts is low, so convert baptisms are more of a question mark. 

Edited April 6, 2015 by Gray

[rockpond]

Hmmmm... our stake just split, we have new wards and new ward boundaries, and we still have to open up the overflow every Sunday (probably need to split again) - we're definitely seeing growth in Tx.  ... We have a few "strong and well off" (oil $) members down here too

 

We've got a lot of growth in our area as well.  A new ward gets created in our stake every few years.  My ward in particular is very "new" (the vast majority of homes built in the last decade) with a lot of young families.  It's a very vibrant, wonderful ward.  But then you dive into our ward list (which we do as ward leaders) and you see this...

 

Of our 97 families, 38% are not active (meaning inactive, not LESS active).  And of those, 27 families are DNC.

[Gray]

We've got a lot of growth in our area as well.  A new ward gets created in our stake every few years.  My ward in particular is very "new" (the vast majority of homes built in the last decade) with a lot of young families.  It's a very vibrant, wonderful ward.  But then you dive into our ward list (which we do as ward leaders) and you see this...

 

Of our 97 families, 38% are not active (meaning inactive, not LESS active).  And of those, 27 families are DNC.

 

Your ward activity rate is 62% then? That's really good, if so. In my stake the average activity rate is 31-32%. The strong wards are closer to 35%, and the weaker ones are in the high 20s. 

[rockpond]

Your ward activity rate is 62% then? That's really good, if so. In my stake the average activity rate is 31-32%. The strong wards are closer to 35%, and the weaker ones are in the high 20s. 

 

Yes, we have a relatively active ward.  My point was that, even with that strong activity rate, about one-fourth of the families on our rolls do not consider themselves members of the church.

[stemelbow]

We've got a lot of growth in our area as well.  A new ward gets created in our stake every few years.  My ward in particular is very "new" (the vast majority of homes built in the last decade) with a lot of young families.  It's a very vibrant, wonderful ward.  But then you dive into our ward list (which we do as ward leaders) and you see this...

 

Of our 97 families, 38% are not active (meaning inactive, not LESS active).  And of those, 27 families are DNC.

Cheer up...those figures suggest far more strength in yoru little ward than the Church sees world wide. And yes, these figures suggest far more strength in yoru ward than in mine.

[stemelbow]

Yes, we have a relatively active ward.  My point was that, even with that strong activity rate, about one-fourth of the families on our rolls do not consider themselves members of the church.

It's a very interesting point.

[Thinking]

That's not the best analogy, IMO (repeatedly posted by Scott Lloyd).

 

Agreed. I was just using the analogy provided by Scott Lloyd.

[ALarson]

Agreed. I was just using the analogy provided by Scott Lloyd.

Yes, I saw that and I agree with you.  When Scott Lloyd first posted it, I thought it was a poor analogy and was puzzled as to why he'd keep repeating it.

[HappyJackWagon]

 

Elder Cook (who has a legal background and is accustomed to being precise) apparently was speaking from figures and statistics and reliable information.

First- If he has reliable statistics that would back up this claim it would be easy enough to release them.

Second- You're citing attorneys for speaking with precision and honesty. Ha! That's a good one.

 

Simply put, without providing the documentation for his claim, when he would have access to the documentation, appears to be disingenuous. If he releases the statistics I'll be happy to eat my words.