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Area Presidency Asks That Church Members in Utah Wear Face Masks

Scott Lloyd

By Scott Lloyd
in General Discussions

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Calm Grand Master

Calm

Posted
Posted (edited)
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People ask me every day, "can I get re-infected?"  So far, all I can say is that "it is not likely in the short term, but we don't know for sure about long-term immunity.  Please continue to use precautions."

I am sure I am saying it for everyone....damn.

Edited by Calm
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pogi Grand Master

pogi

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Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, Scott Lloyd said:

Snopes.com is a website that fact checks claims, rumors, urban legends and such and rates them as true, false, half true, unproven, whatever. . 
 

USU78 cited Snopes accurately. Here is the link:

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/covid-19-reinfection/

Snopes is right in saying "this is an area which requires additional study".  Don't take this as evidence that it is not happening.  The problem is that no one is really looking for evidence.  I have solid documented proof that it is happening in Salt Lake County.  Who is looking at this evidence?  No one.  No one is looking for or tracking any of this.  There is nowhere to report it to.   The problem is that there is also not good evidence that it is not happening and evidence is mounting that immunity is short lived. 

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pogi Grand Master

pogi

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Posted
17 hours ago, provoman said:

How many days/months between reinfection?

The cases I have seen were between 2 and 3 months.  

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Meadowchik Grand Master

Meadowchik

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13 minutes ago, pogi said:

Snopes is right in saying "this is an area which requires additional study".  Don't take this as evidence that it is not happening.  The problem is that no one is really looking for evidence.  I have solid documented proof that it is happening in Utah County.  Who is looking at this evidence?  No one.  No one is looking for or tracking any of this.  There is nowhere to report it to.   The problem is that there is also not good evidence that it is not happening and evidence is mounting that immunity is short lived. 

Wouldn't the U of U hospital have some interested researchers?

https://research.utah.edu/coronavirus/COVID-19-research.php

Anijen Mentor

Anijen

Posted
Posted

Most on this board advocate wearing a mask in all public places, and I am not in disagreement here. Bear with me and let me do the devil's advocate approach (my usual style).

  • If one does not have Covid, wearing a mask cannot protect another from getting Covid from one who does not have it.
  • Wearing a mask by one who has Covid, will retard the spread of herd immunity (WHO, UNMC, and CDC).
  • If one has been self quarantined (two weeks or longer), has taken preventative steps, then wearing of a mask cannot protect another from Covid for the simple fact that he does not have or is fully recovered from Covid and no longer contagious.

I can only spread a disease if I have the disease. I understand it has become a common courtesy to assuage fears and prevent liability but is that enough to mandate wearing? Church services are using very good preventive measures, yet there are wards and branches singing hymns without wearing masks (and there are a lot of knowledgeable doctors in my stake). Every food establishment that I have been to that has since reopened all the employees keep their nose uncovered, some only put on the mask on the way to your table and then take it off leaving your table. Most customers are not wearing a mask (in Nebraska, Wyoming, North and South Dakota). These states do have infectious people and deaths, but according to regional statistics they do not have the massive outbursts of the virus. It makes one think wearing a mask is not that effective.

Just some thoughts, thanks.

pogi Grand Master

pogi

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1 minute ago, Meadowchik said:

Wouldn't the U of U hospital have some interested researchers?

https://research.utah.edu/coronavirus/COVID-19-research.php

I just noticed that Dr. Daniel Leung is interviewed in part 2 of that podcast.  I know Daniel very well and work with him in the travel clinic.  I will have to ask him if he knows of anyone who would be interested in doing research in this area. 

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Scott Lloyd Grand Master

Scott Lloyd

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1 hour ago, HappyJackWagon said:

You're right. The church is often criticized for bein provincial but IMO it would be a difficult position to argue that they aren't. When things hit Utah, they tend to pay closer attention. It's natural and I don't think it is done because they don't care about areas but we all tend to notice what is happening in our own backyard more than what's happening in other areas of the world. 

I don't think it would be provincial for top church leadership to address the global pandemic and safety precautions people could take. They've had months in which they could do this. If they only respond once it dramatically hits Utah, that would be a provincial reaction.

At this point, this is a big enough issue worldwide, or at the very least in the US, that it would seem there could be some coordination for a larger group than just the Utah Area Presidency's area. This is the largest worldwide issue going on right now. I think most of us would agree on that. A message to a worldwide audience would seem appropriate.

I think there has been sufficient back and forth already on this point. The worldwide leadership structure of the Church is such that individual area presidencies can provide localized direction and guidance preferable to one-size-fits-all decrees emanating from Salt Lake City. You may disagree, and that’s fine, but I stand by my own analysis of the matter. 
 

And thank you, by the way, for illustrating through your remarks the verity of my point that on the matter of the Church leadership being seen by fractious critics as being too provincial, it is darned if it does and darned if it doesn’t. 

Edited by Scott Lloyd
ksfisher Grand Master

ksfisher

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Anijen said:

Most customers are not wearing a mask (in Nebraska, Wyoming, North and South Dakota). These states do have infectious people and deaths, but according to regional statistics they do not have the massive outbursts of the virus.

Your example here uses states ranked 42nd, 46th, 47th, and 49th by population density.  One would expect more rural states to have fewer infections.

Comparing Utah and Nebraska's infections, just for the fun of it; UT has over 1 million more residents than NE, but only around 9000 more cases and 285 deaths in NE compared to 219 in UT according to the CDC info I just accessed.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

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pogi Grand Master

pogi

Posted
Posted (edited)

 

Quote

 

Most on this board advocate wearing a mask in all public places, and I am not in disagreement here. Bear with me and let me do the devil's advocate approach (my usual style).

  • If one does not have Covid, wearing a mask cannot protect another from getting Covid from one who does not have it.
  • Wearing a mask by one who has Covid, will retard the spread of herd immunity (WHO, UNMC, and CDC).
  • If one has been self quarantined (two weeks or longer), has taken preventative steps, then wearing of a mask cannot protect another from Covid for the simple fact that he does not have or is fully recovered from Covid and no longer contagious..

 

  • Thanks for your thoughts.

Point 1) Very true.  The problem is that you can be infectious 2 days before symptoms present and there is also a very high rate of asymptomatic carriers.  How can you know that you don't have Covid? 

Point 2) First, I have just presented evidence suggesting that there is reason to question long-term immunity with Covid, which would make herd-immunity a no-go.  Second, even if herd-immunity was a viable solution, the best approach would be to retard the spread to protect overwhelming hospitals. 

Point 3) We don't really know how long any individual is infectious.  It has been shown that some people can shed the virus for months.  There is also the possibility for reinfection. 

My most recent example of reinfection:  My patient was one of the first 20 people to test positive for Covid in Salt Lake County.  He had 2 negative tests 24 hours apart before coming off isolation.  He was absolutely cleared from shedding the virus.   He just recently had an elective surgery scheduled.  As part of routine screening he was tested as a precaution.  To all of our surprise, he tested positive.  He subsequently tested 2 more times to  see if it was a fluke false positive test.  It wasn't.  There are only 2 possibilities.  Either 1) people are getting reinfected by a new exposure, or 2) the virus is laying dormant in their system and becoming active and reinfecting people later (much like varicella).  Who know?  All I know is that getting the disease once should not preclude you from wearing a mask.

44 minutes ago, Anijen said:

Church services are using very good preventive measures, yet there are wards and branches singing hymns without wearing masks (and there are a lot of knowledgeable doctors in my stake). 

One of my biggest pet peeves. 

44 minutes ago, Anijen said:

Every food establishment that I have been to that has since reopened all the employees keep their nose uncovered

Another one of my biggest pet peeves.  Where do people think the virus is being collected for testing?  That's right - the nose!

44 minutes ago, Anijen said:

These states do have infectious people and deaths, but according to regional statistics they do not have the massive outbursts of the virus. It makes one think wearing a mask is not that effective.

As the Area Presidency rightly noted, there is mounting evidence that it is effective. It is hard to compare by region as there are lots of other factors in play. 

Edited by pogi
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Scott Lloyd Grand Master

Scott Lloyd

Posted
  • Author
Posted
44 minutes ago, pogi said:

Snopes is right in saying "this is an area which requires additional study".  Don't take this as evidence that it is not happening.  The problem is that no one is really looking for evidence.  I have solid documented proof that it is happening in Utah County.  Who is looking at this evidence?  No one.  No one is looking for or tracking any of this.  There is nowhere to report it to.   The problem is that there is also not good evidence that it is not happening and evidence is mounting that immunity is short lived. 

The reason Snopes said the claim is “unproven” and that additional study is needed is that there has been nothing conclusive so far. What you have touted here as “proof” is in actuality anecdotal information regarding cases that were not subject to formal academic study with its rigorous and strict controls. Furthermore, what you report might just amount to the exception that proves the rule that for every rule there is an exception. 

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Meadowchik Grand Master

Meadowchik

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, pogi said:

I just noticed that Dr. Daniel Leung is interviewed in part 2 of that podcast.  I know Daniel very well and work with him in the travel clinic.  I will have to ask him if he knows of anyone who would be interested in doing research in this area. 

Someone there will surely find your insights beneficial. We do! :)

ksfisher Grand Master

ksfisher

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said:

Quite often with me, too. Especially when it takes the form of absolutes that are easily debunked. 

It reminded me of this response by Kip to Napoleon in the movie Napoleon Dynamite

Uncle Rico: So what do you think?
Kip: It's pretty cool, I guess.
Uncle Rico: Ohhhh, man I wish I could go back in time. I'd take state.
Napoleon Dynamite: This is pretty much the worst video ever made.
Kip: Napoleon, like anyone can even know that.

Everyone outside the USA and Utah is smart enough to wear a mask?  "...like anyone can even know that."

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pogi Grand Master

pogi

Posted
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said:

The reason Snopes said the claim is “unproven” and that additional study is needed is that there has been nothing conclusive so far. What you have touted here as “proof” is in actuality anecdotal information regarding cases that were not subject to formal academic study with its rigorous and strict controls.

I never said anything was conclusive in regard to general long-term immunity.  You are placing words in my mouth.  I am not saying that I have proof that immunity is short lived in general. I am saying that I have proof that several of my patients have been reinfected.  To say that "there is no evidence that this is happening" is hogwash.  I have evidence. No one is looking at it. 

Quote

Furthermore, what you report might just amount to the exception that proves the rule that for every rule there is an exception. 

Have I said otherwise?  That seems unlikely however, given that I am not the only one seeing these cases.  I have 3 confirmed and 2 probable.  I am 1 of over 100 investigators.  How likely is it that I am the only one seeing these cases?  My close co-workers have all seen them.  The County now has protocol to address reinfections (this protocol only comes because they keep popping up).

Edited by pogi
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HappyJackWagon Grand Master

HappyJackWagon

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Scott Lloyd said:

I think there has been sufficient back and forth already on this point. The worldwide leadership structure of the Church is such that individual area presidencies can provide localized direction and guidance preferable to one-size-fits-all decrees emanating from Salt Lake City. You may disagree, and that’s fine, but I stand by my own analysis of the matter. 
 

And thank you, by the way, for illustrating through your remarks the verity of my point that on the matter of the Church leadership being seen by fractious critics as being too provincial, it is darned if it does and darned if it doesn’t. 

You're very welcome.

 

Daniel2 Grand Master

Daniel2

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, ksfisher said:

Guidelines for Safely Returning to Church Meetings and Activities

https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/multimedia/file/safely-return-to-church-meetings-activities-guidelines-2020.pdf

On March 12, 2020, the First Presidency and Quorum of the Twelve Apostles announced that all public gatherings of Church members were temporarily suspended worldwide due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.These Brethren have now authorized that meetings and activities may be resumed using a phased approach when local government regulations allow and Area Presidencies inform local leaders.When such permission is granted for your location, please proceed in a cautious, carefully planned and coordinated manner based on local government regulations.

and

Preventative Measures for Members*

  • Regularly and thoroughly wash your hands with soap and water or clean them with an alcohol-based hand rub.
  • Avoid close contact with people who are sick (this may include avoiding shaking hands or other customary greetings).
  • Avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth.
  • Stay home when you are sick.
  • Cover your cough or sneeze with a tissue, then throw the tissue in the trash.
  • Maintain at least six feet (two meters) distance between yourself and anyone who is coughing or sneezing.
  • Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces using a regular household cleaning spray or wipe.
  • Follow public health agency recommendations for using a face mask.

*Based on recommendations from the World Health Organization and the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Local leaders should encourage members to follow these guidelines.

https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/coronavirus-update#preventative-measures

 

 

I wish the First Presidency, themselves (in an open letter, not just via the church's website) would reiterate that they urge the Saints to follow these recommendations in public life outside the four walls of their church buildings, as well.  I believe that would carry a lot more weight for some than the announcement on newsroom.com.

 

Edited by Daniel2
Calm Grand Master

Calm

Posted
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Covid-19 may also be much worse the second time around. During his first infection, my patient experienced a mild cough and sore throat. His second infection, in contrast, was marked by a high fever, shortness of breath, and hypoxia, resulting in multiple trips to the hospital. 

Recent reports and conversations with physician colleagues suggest my patient is not alone. Two patients in New Jersey, for instance, appear to have contracted Covid-19 a second time almost two months after fully recovering from their first infection. Daniel Griffin, a physician and researcher at Columbia University in New York, recently described a case of presumed reinfection on the This Week in Virologypodcast. 

It is possible, but unlikely, that my patient had a single infection that lasted three months. Some Covid-19 patients (now dubbed “long haulers”) do appear to suffer persistent infections and symptoms.

 

pogi Grand Master

pogi

Posted
Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, provoman said:

No, not you. It is the title of an article https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twice-reinfection-antibody-herd-immunity

Thanks for the article. It is interesting to see that I am not alone in my observations.  I wish that we were required to report reinfections to the CDC so that we could have a comprehensive way to track them.  If we were required to report these cases, I think it would be clear that these are not isolated incidents.  It is too improbable that I alone am seeing this many cases.    

Contrary to the article (thank goodness), my cases did not have worse symptoms the second time around.  One, in fact, was completely asymptomatic.  The others probably had equally severe symptoms to their first infection.    

Edited by pogi
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