Calm Posted June 3, 2020 Posted June 3, 2020 2 hours ago, longview said: A 0.2% death rate feels VERY ironic to me. CFR please, not seeing that in reports I am reading https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality 5.8% of confirmed cases for US, too sleepy for figuring out the estimated number of unconfirmed, but .2% death rate for infected would mean huge numbers of unconfirmed. 1
pogi Posted June 3, 2020 Posted June 3, 2020 (edited) 5 hours ago, longview said: A 0.2% death rate feels VERY ironic to me. I’m not sure I follow. It’s ironic in relation to what? I was pointing out the irony of Scott calling someone out for making predictions when he himself was doing the same. Where are you getting your figures, first of all as that sounds very low, and what is ironic about 100,000 people dying in a 3-4 month time period, with no end in sight (regardless of what the estimated “death rate” is)? Death rate means very little as a stand alone figure. A disease with a high death rate and a very low infection rate is probably less worrisome from a public health perspective then a disease with a relatively low death rate but an extremely high infection rate. Rate of infection matters. Also death rate will vary based on population studied. For vulnerable populations, which we are all most concerned about, mortality rates sky-rocket! Total numbers matter. Vulnerable populations matter. Hospitalizations and severe morbidity matters as well. Edited June 3, 2020 by pogi 2
longview Posted June 3, 2020 Posted June 3, 2020 (edited) 7 hours ago, Calm said: CFR please, not seeing that in reports I am reading https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality 5.8% of confirmed cases for US, too sleepy for figuring out the estimated number of unconfirmed, but .2% death rate for infected would mean huge numbers of unconfirmed. Asymptomatic cases are VASTLY greater than reported (or disclosed). The method of reporting cases and cause of death do NOT inspire confidence. 4 hours ago, pogi said: Where are you getting your figures, first of all as that sounds very low, and what is ironic about 100,000 people dying in a 3-4 month time period, with no end in sight (regardless of what the estimated “death rate” is)? The US has a population of over 328 million. The death rate in the population is actually much much much lower than 0.2%. Asymptomatic cases point to ever increasing herd immunity. Something society should be relying predominantly from this point on. We simply just need to help those that are aged or suffering from degraded immune systems to take measures such as isolation or protective gear. We can be sure that next winter the covid rates WILL drop below the nominal seasonal flu fluctuations. No need to shut down churches, victimize small businesses, etc. Things are looking better and better! This is confirmed by autocratic blue states turning around and giving free reign to mass protest and frightful looting and violence. Edited June 3, 2020 by longview 1
pogi Posted June 3, 2020 Posted June 3, 2020 (edited) 36 minutes ago, longview said: Asymptomatic cases are VASTLY greater than reported (or disclosed). The method of reporting cases and cause of death do NOT inspire confidence. I agree that the 5.8% figure is likely high as it can't account for non-confirmed asymptomatic cases. But where do you get the 0.2% figure from? At least the 5.8% figure is based on confirmed cases through both antibody tests and nasal swab tests (so it does account for at least some of the asymptomatic cases), while your figure is based on guess-work. It doesn't "inspire confidence". 36 minutes ago, longview said: The US has a population of over 328 million. The death rate in the population is actually much much much lower than 0.2%. That is assuming 100% of the population has been infected. It hasn't. Not even close. I'm not sure where you are coming from or going with this. 36 minutes ago, longview said: Asymptomatic cases point to ever increasing herd immunity. Something society should be relying predominantly from this point on. I wouldn't be so confident in that guess. We don't know yet if antibodies give long-term protection. There are already documented cases of repeat infections. We also have no idea how many people have been infected - that would require mass antibody testing, which has not been performed. 36 minutes ago, longview said: We simply just need to help those that are aged or suffering from degraded immune systems to take measures such as isolation or protective gear. Protective gear? Like what? Full on PPE? Masks aren't' really to protect the person wearing them, they are more to protect others (like the vulnerable population). If the rest of the population does not follow precautions to prevent spread of disease, there is no way to protect the vulnerable population. It is unrealistic and unethical to keep them isolated indefinitely. How do yo expect large multigenerational households with 1 bathroom and a couple bedrooms to isolate? Not realistic. We have to do our part to protect them and not expect them to be able to isolate or live in a bubble suit indefinitely. 36 minutes ago, longview said: We can be sure that next winter the covid rates WILL drop below the nominal seasonal flu fluctuations. We can be "sure"? Based on what? Wishful thinking doesn't count. Making up figures for asymptomatic cases doesn't count. Guessing if long-term herd immunity will be reliable doesn't count. The virus could mutate further (it has already shown to mutate) and cause seasonal waves of disease. To early to tell, if I were a betting man, I'd place my bets on a spike in the fall/winter. 36 minutes ago, longview said: No need to shut down churches, victimize small businesses, etc. And if we didn't do what we did? Do you really think the 100,000 figure would be anywhere near that low? Do you think New York would have been an isolated incident with overwhelming the healthcare system? 36 minutes ago, longview said: Things are look better and better! I wouldn't be so sure. The figures for Utah don't support your optimism...neither does my relentless and increasing workload. Todays news: "The state of Utah is seeing a spike in COVID-19 cases that can't be explained by a single hotspot — it's a statewide issue, according to health officials The last week has seen numbers of new cases in the triple digits every day "I want to be very clear today that we have increased spread of COVID-19 here in Utah,” health department state epidemiologist Dr. Angela Dunn said in a news conference Wednesday. "It is significantly a statewide trend."" https://www.ksl.com/article/46760566/utah-sees-295-new-cases-of-covid-19-4-more-deaths-as-officials-investigate-statewide-spike Things are just starting to open back up, and we are just barely starting to see those numbers spike. Expect more spike in figures to come in a week or two. Church goers just barely started going back to church (many have not yet). With the riots going on, it will take a couple weeks before we start seeing spikes from all of that. Edited June 3, 2020 by pogi 3
Tacenda Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 11 hours ago, bluebell said: As far as I have heard we are still singing in our ward, but masks are mandatory for everyone attending. I'll bet the millions of masks the church got going and people have made with church supplied material will sure come in handy, that is if they are going to be provided for members and not sent out to mostly medical people, have you heard what happens to all the masks? I know several people that helped make them. I'm really not in the loop much, except for emails occasionally.
bluebell Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Tacenda said: I'll bet the millions of masks the church got going and people have made with church supplied material will sure come in handy, that is if they are going to be provided for members and not sent out to mostly medical people, have you heard what happens to all the masks? I know several people that helped make them. I'm really not in the loop much, except for emails occasionally. In our ward I think they turned them in to stake leaders who then turned them in to someone else up the line and that eventually they will be distributed. I know we aren't getting them to use ourselves, we have to provide our own for church.
longview Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 29 minutes ago, pogi said: I agree that the 5.8% figure is likely high as it can't account for non-confirmed asymptomatic cases. But where do you get the 0.2% figure from? At least the 5.8% figure is based on confirmed cases through both antibody tests and nasal swab tests (so it does account for at least some of the asymptomatic cases), while your figure is based on guess-work. It doesn't "inspire confidence". The SARS outbreak in 2002 was assessed at 11% death rate. But no draconian measures were imposed on populations around the world. See here. 32 minutes ago, pogi said: That is assuming 100% of the population has been infected. It hasn't. Not even close. I'm not sure where you are coming from or going with this. Ok. I was calculating for the rate among the general population. There are other causes of death that are many fold greater than covid. My point is that it is unjust for officials to stampede the people into excessive fear, hysteria and paranoia. 39 minutes ago, pogi said: I wouldn't be so confident in that guess. We don't know yet if antibodies give long-term protection. There are already documented cases of repeat infections. We also have no idea how many people have been infected - that would require mass antibody testing, which has not been performed. Regardless, the lockdowns originally were implemented to "flatten the curve" to give hospitals more breathing room to process cases. Note that the area between the curve and the horizontal axis represents the total number of cases. The numbers would have been equal between extreme spike and the flat curve. 46 minutes ago, pogi said: Protective gear? Like what? Full on PPE? Masks aren't' really to protect the person wearing them, they are more to protect others (like the vulnerable population). If the rest of the population does not follow precautions to prevent spread of disease, there is no way to protect the vulnerable population. Exactly. Let vulnerable people decide on their own what measures to take. They are a small fraction of the population. If necessary they can consult with their physicians and families on further measures. 50 minutes ago, pogi said: It is unrealistic and unethical to keep them isolated indefinitely. I am so glad you agree. It is their choice. Some feel very infirm and actually would welcome release from the Second Estate. It is ridiculous to force draconian rules on healthy people and insane to force small businesses to shut down. It is a crying shame that New York forced nursing homes to admit covid patients into the facilities. The death rate exploded several times over. In spite of all that, the extra beds and hospital facilities that were built by New York ended up NOT being used. How crazy is that? 53 minutes ago, pogi said: How do yo expect large multigenerational households with 1 bathroom and a couple bedrooms to isolate? Not realistic. We have to do our part to protect them and not expect them to be able to isolate or live in a bubble suit indefinitely. Nothing is stopping authorities from providing guidelines for those situations. Just don't impose onerous policies on the rest of the people. 57 minutes ago, pogi said: We can be "sure"? Based on what? Wishful thinking doesn't count. Making up figures for asymptomatic cases doesn't count. Guessing if long-term herd immunity will be reliable doesn't count. The virus could mutate further (it has already shown to mutate) and cause seasonal waves of disease. To early to tell, if I were a betting man, I'd place my bets on a spike in the fall/winter. Hyperventillating in fear is NOT sound policy. Let nature take its course. It is not even 1/8 as bad 1918 pandemic. It would be much more prudent to expect the "second wave" to be smaller in 2021. 1 hour ago, pogi said: 1 hour ago, longview said: No need to shut down churches, victimize small businesses, etc. And if we didn't do what we did? Do you really think the 100,000 figure would be anywhere near that low? Do you think New York would have been an isolated incident with overwhelming the healthcare system? There is WAY too much conflating of statistics that inflate the numbers beyond reality. Co-morbity rates should have been kept separate. Hospitals should have segregated various kinds of patients into isolated facilities. I "home teach" a couple that was severely traumatized because he had brain surgery but the hospital disallowed her from watching over him. As a result he was badly neglected (his feeding tube into his stomach caused an infection and actually dropped out). But his wife was NOT allowed to keep an eye on him. All this at relatively new hospital in a progressive medium sized bedroom community. 1 hour ago, pogi said: 1 hour ago, longview said: No need to shut down churches, victimize small businesses, etc. And if we didn't do what we did? Do you really think the 100,000 figure would be anywhere near that low? Do you think New York would have been an isolated incident with overwhelming the healthcare system? If the US had followed the lead of Taiwan and a few other states it most likely would have been much more manageable. The reason Italy had such a bad experience was because of the large number of the elderly who were vulnerable. New York state's policies were really abhorrent in regards to their elderly. 1 hour ago, pogi said: Things are just starting to open back up, and we are just barely starting to see those numbers spike. Expect more spike in figures to come in a week or two. Church goers just barely started going back to church (many have not yet). With the riots going on, it will take a couple weeks before we start seeing spikes from all of that. Any thoughts on the blue states and cities apparent disregard/reversal on allowing mass protests and looting/violence? 1
pogi Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 (edited) 46 minutes ago, longview said: The SARS outbreak in 2002 was assessed at 11% death rate. But no draconian measures were imposed on populations around the world. See here. Ok. I was calculating for the rate among the general population. There are other causes of death that are many fold greater than covid. My point is that it is unjust for officials to stampede the people into excessive fear, hysteria and paranoia. Regardless, the lockdowns originally were implemented to "flatten the curve" to give hospitals more breathing room to process cases. Note that the area between the curve and the horizontal axis represents the total number of cases. The numbers would have been equal between extreme spike and the flat curve. Exactly. Let vulnerable people decide on their own what measures to take. They are a small fraction of the population. If necessary they can consult with their physicians and families on further measures. I am so glad you agree. It is their choice. Some feel very infirm and actually would welcome release from the Second Estate. It is ridiculous to force draconian rules on healthy people and insane to force small businesses to shut down. It is a crying shame that New York forced nursing homes to admit covid patients into the facilities. The death rate exploded several times over. In spite of all that, the extra beds and hospital facilities that were built by New York ended up NOT being used. How crazy is that? Nothing is stopping authorities from providing guidelines for those situations. Just don't impose onerous policies on the rest of the people. Hyperventillating in fear is NOT sound policy. Let nature take its course. It is not even 1/8 as bad 1918 pandemic. It would be much more prudent to expect the "second wave" to be smaller in 2021. There is WAY too much conflating of statistics that inflate the numbers beyond reality. Co-morbity rates should have been kept separate. Hospitals should have segregated various kinds of patients into isolated facilities. I "home teach" a couple that was severely traumatized because he had brain surgery but the hospital disallowed her from watching over him. As a result he was badly neglected (his feeding tube into his stomach caused an infection and actually dropped out). But his wife was NOT allowed to keep an eye on him. All this at relatively new hospital in a progressive medium sized bedroom community. If the US had followed the lead of Taiwan and a few other states it most likely would have been much more manageable. The reason Italy had such a bad experience was because of the large number of the elderly who were vulnerable. New York state's policies were really abhorrent in regards to their elderly. Any thoughts on the blue states and cities apparent disregard/reversal on allowing mass protests and looting/violence? There is a lot to address here. I don't think I'll get to all of it. In regards to SARS, I already addressed that by saying: Quote Death rate means very little as a stand alone figure. A disease with a high death rate and a very low infection rate is probably less worrisome from a public health perspective then a disease with a relatively low death rate but an extremely high infection rate. Rate of infection matters. You can't judge how to appropriately respond to a disease by isolating the mortality rate. In regards to our "draconian measures", all I can say is that we are lucky that it wasn't worse. This is/was a completely novel virus and because it is related to SARS (which has a very high mortality rate), and because it was so terribly infectious and uncontainable, there was great reason to take every precaution we did to prevent global devastation. Things would have been much better if we would have taken stronger measures sooner. Things would have been shut down for a MUCH shorter time, with much less devastating numbers that we see today. Now that we have more reliable data and a little better understanding of the virus, we can adjust policies based on data (which we are doing). I always say that the best policy in the face of the unknown is to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Anything less would be to bet human lives on reckless wishful thinking. In regard to blue states and protests - I don't think any of them were condoning looting/violence. In regards to allowing mass gatherings...so did the red states. To try and suppress the voice of the people by not allowing them to gather would have ignited something even more terrible. Edited June 4, 2020 by pogi 2
Calm Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 1 hour ago, Tacenda said: I'll bet the millions of masks the church got going and people have made with church supplied material will sure come in handy, that is if they are going to be provided for members and not sent out to mostly medical people, have you heard what happens to all the masks? I know several people that helped make them. I'm really not in the loop much, except for emails occasionally. Iirc ours were sent to nursing homes in the area. Might be a good idea to suggest another batch to hand out at church.
Calm Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 (edited) 40 minutes ago, pogi said: Things would have been much better if we would have taken stronger measures sooner New Zealand with no new cases demonstrates that. We are not an island, so not comparing ourselves to them, but that is really impressive to me, that level of cooperation of an entire country...sure, it's small countrywise, but we are still talking almost 5 million people. And having the guts to tell other countries to stay out and not be frightened about what that means.... Edited June 4, 2020 by Calm 2
The Nehor Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 (edited) 6 hours ago, longview said: Asymptomatic cases are VASTLY greater than reported (or disclosed). The method of reporting cases and cause of death do NOT inspire confidence. The US has a population of over 328 million. The death rate in the population is actually much much much lower than 0.2%. Asymptomatic cases point to ever increasing herd immunity. Something society should be relying predominantly from this point on. We simply just need to help those that are aged or suffering from degraded immune systems to take measures such as isolation or protective gear. We can be sure that next winter the covid rates WILL drop below the nominal seasonal flu fluctuations. No need to shut down churches, victimize small businesses, etc. You have to provide data to prove that asymptomatic cases are that much higher. Everyone acknowledges that many are missed but the best estimate right now is the about 30% of cases are asymptomatic. An early (flawed) study posited that there were vast numbers of asymptomatic cases but the methodology of the study was rightly roasted and I suspect that is where you got the idea. It was very prominently touted in the types of media you have historically favored. We also most certainly cannot be sure that this winter there will be fewer deaths. I hope we do have fewer deaths but if the worst comes to worst and it does get bad this winter I do harbor a secret hope that Scott Lloyd will jump out and chastise you for your misplaced certainty. I is a very low percentage hope. 6 hours ago, longview said: Things are looking better and better! This is confirmed by autocratic blue states turning around and giving free reign to mass protest and frightful looting and violence. No, as I mentioned in another thread protesters are cognizant of it and have even asked those who are at risk or live with those at risk to stay home. They do consider the cause worth some risk. I expect that if cases spike there will be a sudden flip-flop in the narrative and blame will be reassigned to the protests about murders and they will be fingered as responsible for the spike some will conveniently forget the more banal and pathetic protests from just before where people complained their fundamental rights were being violated due to not having easy access to haircuts and fast food. Edited June 4, 2020 by The Nehor 2
The Nehor Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 3 hours ago, longview said: The SARS outbreak in 2002 was assessed at 11% death rate. But no draconian measures were imposed on populations around the world. See here. Ok. I was calculating for the rate among the general population. There are other causes of death that are many fold greater than covid. My point is that it is unjust for officials to stampede the people into excessive fear, hysteria and paranoia. Regardless, the lockdowns originally were implemented to "flatten the curve" to give hospitals more breathing room to process cases. Note that the area between the curve and the horizontal axis represents the total number of cases. The numbers would have been equal between extreme spike and the flat curve. Exactly. Let vulnerable people decide on their own what measures to take. They are a small fraction of the population. If necessary they can consult with their physicians and families on further measures. I am so glad you agree. It is their choice. Some feel very infirm and actually would welcome release from the Second Estate. It is ridiculous to force draconian rules on healthy people and insane to force small businesses to shut down. It is a crying shame that New York forced nursing homes to admit covid patients into the facilities. The death rate exploded several times over. In spite of all that, the extra beds and hospital facilities that were built by New York ended up NOT being used. How crazy is that? Nothing is stopping authorities from providing guidelines for those situations. Just don't impose onerous policies on the rest of the people. Hyperventillating in fear is NOT sound policy. Let nature take its course. It is not even 1/8 as bad 1918 pandemic. It would be much more prudent to expect the "second wave" to be smaller in 2021. There is WAY too much conflating of statistics that inflate the numbers beyond reality. Co-morbity rates should have been kept separate. Hospitals should have segregated various kinds of patients into isolated facilities. I "home teach" a couple that was severely traumatized because he had brain surgery but the hospital disallowed her from watching over him. As a result he was badly neglected (his feeding tube into his stomach caused an infection and actually dropped out). But his wife was NOT allowed to keep an eye on him. All this at relatively new hospital in a progressive medium sized bedroom community. If the US had followed the lead of Taiwan and a few other states it most likely would have been much more manageable. The reason Italy had such a bad experience was because of the large number of the elderly who were vulnerable. New York state's policies were really abhorrent in regards to their elderly. Any thoughts on the blue states and cities apparent disregard/reversal on allowing mass protests and looting/violence? SARS killed more quickly and was much more symptomatic. That made containment an option. Containment is more difficult the longer it takes symptoms to show. The US might have been able to contain this virus if we had very early testing, closed the borders and airports, and started contact tracing when cases were still rare. Even this may not have worked. We probably caught the first cases too late. The issue is that bugs that look like they MIGHT be like this coronavirus pop up about once a year. Usually they come to nothing. Sometimes they are deadly enough that they kill off a few people and die off on their own because a fast death means less chance to spread. Sometimes they spread faster but are too weak to do anything. Sometimes the symptoms are so rapid it is easy to isolate cases and present spread. Some mutate and the new version becomes the dominant strain because advantageous mutations (in terms of virus propagating) usually make the virus less deadly. The coronavirus is in a sweet spot of danger. It is highly infectious but has a decently long incubation period. It is deadly enough to have a high lethality rate but not so high that it caused a panic until it was already a global pandemic. It was just a bad roll of the dice and because of that a couple of million people are going to die. If death rate was an indicator of the final death total then yes, smallpox and ebola and SARs would have been more deadly. 1
The Nehor Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 I am usually the prophet of doom of this thread so let me give a ray of tentative sunshine: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/early-coronavirus-immunity-data-fuel-promise-for-a-vaccine/ I read the article behind this one and this data offers a ray of hope. Tests of immunity suggests reinfections should be very rare and that immunity in symptomatic cases will be measured in years and not in months or weeks. It is not conclusive but it is good news. That means it is possible for a burnout (unlikely) or herd immunity to stop it, at least temporarily. Again, not conclusive. The only way we will know for sure is by long-term antibody testing. Also some hope in vaccines in that article. It looks like it should be possible to create a short-term mostly effective vaccine and later a longer term much better vaccine. It is also now suspected that exposure to the common cold causing cousins of this virus provide an advantage when infected. They do not provide immunity but could lessen symptoms. Populations where these other coronaviruses are rare have shown stronger symptoms on average but this is complicated and the difference is not very big. The one downside to the study is it did not research asymptomatic cases so they are less sure that these cases will provide enough antibodies to build immunity. Again, all tentative but encouraging. Congress is considering allowing faster human testing on volunteers. The FDA has some permission to accelerate but are probably not eager to take it as deaths in the program would likely drag the organization through the mud and Congress could easily roast them in hearings. If Congress gives them political cover they would be more likely to act as the blame would go elsewhere. The methods being considered are fraught with ethical hazard as they are considering using the vaccine and then intentionally infecting the vaccinated with the real virus. As each infection would be a potential death you can see the danger. There is also the question of how much of the virus should be used for the test. Too little and you think you have immunity and you do not. Too much and you may kill the patient. China claims to be the furthest along in testing and is in human trials in a 100 person group but their vaccine is likely to have a limited duration but that is not certain. The vaccine creates antibodies that do bind to the attacking virus but how well it fights it is still mostly unknown. It has about a 10% risk of side effects including fever, shortness of breath, and muscle pain. These are similar to a flu vaccine but last longer and are a little more acute. They are moving on to 500 more and are adding the elderly. Britain has also rushed testing and has a group of 1,000 volunteers in one trial. They plan to give the vaccine to 10,000 more people. If it works they hope to have it ready for general use in the Fall. The first batch of patients continues to be monitored to find out if the vaccine prevents the disease from manifesting in the patient. There are also several other vaccines moving along. Any of these could fail or have a fatal flaw. Luckily there are a lot of them so chances are better that some will succeed but a lot of them are also pursuing the same immunity angles so if it fails for one it may fail for all using that approach. 1
Hamba Tuhan Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 My sister lives in Utah. She today sent me a link to a report titled '"This is a statewide trend": 17% of all Utah COVID-19 cases reported in the past week'. It notes the following: Quote Utah has reported at least 200 new cases every day since Thursday, including its largest daily increase since the pandemic began, 343 cases, on Friday. The state reported more than 1,000 cases in a four-day span between Thursday and Sunday alone. I can't grasp why people in Utah are heading back to church in these circumstances. Our area president told us not to expect a return to church anytime soon, and we're doing far, far better than Utah (and the rest of America) is. Go figure. 2
Bob Crockett Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 32 minutes ago, Hamba Tuhan said: My sister lives in Utah. She today sent me a link to a report titled '"This is a statewide trend": 17% of all Utah COVID-19 cases reported in the past week'. It notes the following: I can't grasp why people in Utah are heading back to church in these circumstances. Our area president told us not to expect a return to church anytime soon, and we're doing far, far better than Utah (and the rest of America) is. Go figure. Live free or die. 2
Hamba Tuhan Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Bob Crockett said: Live free or die. And/or, perhaps?
Bob Crockett Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, Hamba Tuhan said: And/or, perhaps? Yes. It is an "and." That is, essentially, the measure of freedom. I'm a libertarian. I don't necessarily feel compelled to salute the flag although I have sufficient patriotism to vote and I do salute the flag. But the first measure of government oppression is that you lose the right to worship. Then to work. Then to travel. Then to be a family. 2
Ragerunner Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 Have any stakes or wards officially started meeting in Utah yet or is this coming Sunday the first day back?
Hamba Tuhan Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Bob Crockett said: But the first measure of government oppression is that you lose the right to worship. Interesting that you have chosen to blame government oppression. Where I live, the prophets shut our buildings before any government required it, and their continued closure is not a government mandate but a Church one. Thankfully, closed chapels have not interfered at all with my right to worship! Edited June 4, 2020 by Hamba Tuhan 2
Calm Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, Hamba Tuhan said: My sister lives in Utah. She today sent me a link to a report titled '"This is a statewide trend": 17% of all Utah COVID-19 cases reported in the past week'. It notes the following: I can't grasp why people in Utah are heading back to church in these circumstances. Our area president told us not to expect a return to church anytime soon, and we're doing far, far better than Utah (and the rest of America) is. Go figure. My little town has had 9 cases reported for about the full quarantineit seems, nothing new for weeks until this weekend. This weekend we went up to 14 and last night it was 15, not much, but that means a third of our cases appeared this last week. The two towns next to us are larger and both had around 100 cases and over the weekend popped up ten percent and now added a few more. Quote Since the state first reopened hair salons, gyms, restaurants and bars on May 1, the number of reported cases has doubled from nearly 5,000 to over 10,000. Utah further relaxed coronavirus-related restrictions across much of the state on May 14, allowing team sports to resume, pools to open and groups of up to 50 people to gather. https://apnews.com/4ca69c595e0d15176a2a0e287ffa6dc9 Edited June 4, 2020 by Calm
Calm Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Bob Crockett said: Live free or die. Or in this case if we are going to be doing slogans: live free and kill others...unintentionally of course and likely not too many...hopefully. Edited June 4, 2020 by Calm 2
pogi Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 (edited) 9 hours ago, The Nehor said: Tests of immunity suggests reinfections should be very rare and that immunity in symptomatic cases will be measured in years and not in months or weeks. It is not conclusive but it is good news. That means it is possible for a burnout (unlikely) or herd immunity to stop it, at least temporarily. Again, not conclusive. The only way we will know for sure is by long-term antibody testing. The T cell response is very encouraging indeed, and I hate to be the one to cast a shadow over your ray of sunshine, but I didn't see any indication that immunity will be measured in years. Since antibodies do not guarantee immunity, we will need more than long-term antibody testing. For example, I have a current patient who is on her second round of infection. It is as clear-cut as they come. Tested positive in mid-march and had all the common symptoms. She required two negative tests to return to work as a healthcare worker. She fully recovered, had 2 negative tests and returned to work. She later performed an antibody test which showed a strong antibody response, yet last week she fell ill again. She got tested thinking it must be something else, but guess what...positive for Covid! She had antibodies and still fell ill. This suggests that her T cell response was weak or short lived. I think it is too early to understand T cell response and long-term immunity in the larger population. While that is just one small anecdote, the article you linked to does states this: Quote The question [of] how long this response lasts obviously takes time, because we have been dealing with this virus for only a few months, and we cannot possibly know what is going to happen a year down the line. I do hope though. Edited June 4, 2020 by pogi 4
pogi Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 (edited) 3 hours ago, Bob Crockett said: Live free or die. There will always be limitations to freedom. You must be at the brink of death then living in this republic instead of an anarchy state. If it is an either/or, how are you still alive? Edited June 4, 2020 by pogi 2
Nacho2dope Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 Word on the street is our ward will be going back this month for sacrament only. We have not received any guidance yet.
The Nehor Posted June 5, 2020 Posted June 5, 2020 On 6/4/2020 at 8:13 AM, Bob Crockett said: Live free or die. So will I see you at the protest tonight? I am bringing snacks!
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